KA2

The Footprints of Climate Change

from Anatolia to Europe

ERASMUS + KA2
2017-1-TR01-KA219-045616_1

ERASMUS +
KA2

Aksaray Science and EPRALIMA Professional 2nd High School of High School Matei
Art Center, School of Alto Lima, Serres, Basarab,
Aksaray / Turkey Arcos de Valdenez / Portugal Serres / Greece Craiova/ România
ERASMUS +

CLIMATE CHANGE IN TURKEY

Turkey is on the north hemisphere between Europe and Asia
continents. It is like a bridge between Asia and Europe. It is
surrounded by Mediterranean Sea, Aegean Sea and Black Sea.

Meeting in
In Turkey there is a noticeable variety of climates, with considerable differences
between the areas.

In Turkey there is a noticeable variety of climates, with considerable differences

between the areas, and also with some microclimates due to the exposure of slopes and
coasts.
The coastal areas have generally a mild climate, but the coast of the Black Sea is colder
than that of the Mediterranean.

The map below shows the climate zones of Turkey.

2
 KA2

The climate of the Anatolian Plateau (Central Anatolian region) is a steppe climate
(there is a great temperature difference between day and night). Rainfall is low and
there is more snow. The average temperature is 23°C in summer and -2°C in winter.
The climate in the Black Sea area (Black Sea region) is wet, warm and humid (summer
23°C, winter 7°C).
In Eastern Anatolia and South-Eastern Anatolia there is a long hard winter, where year
after year snow lies on the ground from November until the end of April (the average
temperature in winter is -13°C and in summer 17°C).
In IPCC 5. evaluation report global average temperature rise in 1951-2012 is 0,72°C.
However it is more than this number in Turkey.
The map below shows the significant temperature rise in Turkey in this map.

INSIDE STORY HEADLINE

3
ERASMUS +

CLIMATE CHANGE IN AKSARAY

Here we will compare the climatic data of Aksaray before 2000s and after 2000s.

As you can see in this map, Aksaray is in semi-step climate region.

4
 KA2

Climatic Data of Aksaray 1950-2000

Climatic Data of Aksaray 2001-2017

5
ERASMUS +

It is seen that average yearly temperature of Aksaray rise more than 1°C when it is compared
the temperature in 2001-2017 and 1950-2000 years.

Average monthly precipitation in Aksaray

Comparing the average yearly precipitation in 2001-2017 and in 1950-2000 years, it is seen
that average yearly temperature of Aksaray decreases more than 32 mm.
Moreover, it decreases in winter and spring and increases in summer and autumn.

6
 KA2

The average precipitation in Aksaray has changed in last 16 years. It decreases in winter and
spring and increases in summer and autumn.

The average precipitation in 1950-2000 The average precipitation in 2001-2017

De Martonne aridity and drought indices and climate type

Climate Type Aridity and drought indices

Desert 0-5

Steppe (semi-desert) 5 - 10

Tropical Steppe 10 - 20

Subhumid 20 - 28

Humid 28 - 35

Damp 35 - 55

Wet >55

Polar <0 (T<-5C)

7
ERASMUS +

RESULTS
 It is seen that average yearly temperature of Aksaray rise more than 1°C when it is
compared the temperature in 2001-2017 and 1950-2000 years. Moreover, there is 1°C
temperature difference between before 2000s and after 2000s. It is an important rise for
17 years. This value increases in summer ( June, July and August)

 It is observed that the annual rainfall in 2001-2017 in Aksaray is less than 32mm in 1950-
2000.

 The rainfall decreases in autumn and spring. In the past, the most intensive rainfall is in
spring. This affects agriculture and drought.

 There is a significant change in temperature of Aksaray according to De Martonne

classification.. In 1950-2000 , drought index is 8.31 ; however, in 2001-2017, it is 7.13.
Therefore we can say that the climate in Aksaray changes from semi desert to desert.

8
 KA2

CLIMATE CHARACTERISTICS

OF DOLJ COUNTY

Dolj county is located in the south-western part of Romania, being bounded to the
south by the Danube River and crossed from the north to the south by the Jiu River, from
which it has the name, South Jiu (Doljiu).
The relief includes the Danube riverside area in the south, a plain area – the Olteni-
an Plain and a hill side in the north, being arranged as a large amphitheater with altitudes
increasing from 30 to 350 m.
From a climatic point of view, the region belongs to the temperate-continental
zone with slight Mediterranean influences, therefore it has a milder climate than the
northern part of the country, but with some moisture deficiency. The average annual
temperature is between 10-11.5° C, average precipitation of 500-600 mm / year
and hot winds from the southwest, such as Austro or Ostro. There are, in a smaller pro-
portion, other types of winds. The high frequency of the winds is recorded in the spring,
dominating the eastern winds (the Crivetz) and the western winds. The highest average
speed (between 15 and 35 km / h) is specific to the cold months of the year.

9
ERASMUS +

The temperate character is given by climatic characteristics: thermal amplitudes of

approx. 24°C, warm summers, with high temperatures, and winters with negative tempera-
tures (January, February).There are also periods of sudden spring cooling, when the average
temperature drops to -10 ° C at night and snow falls in layers of 5-20 cm. These are preceded
by waves of heat in the winter months, when the average temperature is a few degrees higher
than the normal period, being determined by the penetration of hot-sea or tropical air masses.

Climate warming has been observed over the last decades, which is why climate varia-
bility occurs, with short transition seasons and sudden changes from one extreme season to
another, but also a wide range of climatic risk phenomena (drought, aridity, waves of heat,
excess humidity, hail, blizzard), which can have serious consequences for the environment
and society).
Evolution of annual average temperature and average annual rainfall over the
period 1998-2017

The year Average annual temperature (° C) Annual average rainfall (l / m²)

1998 11,1 619
1999 11,8 681
2000 12,5 339
2001 12 645
2002 11,9 660
2003 10,9 681
2004 11 602
2005 10,5 1082
2006 11 674
2007 12,5 753
2008 12 484
2009 12,1 701
2010 11,3 827
2011 11 490
2012 12,3 533
2013 12 652
2014 11,5 1147
2015 12,5 808
2016 12,4 710
2017 12,6 552
Table 1-Evolution of average annual rainfall and temperatures

10
 KA2

Fig.1- Evolution of annual average rainfall (1998-2017)

Graphs analysis shows the precipitation deficient years:

- 2000, the most deficient, below 400 l / m², the winter 2000-2001 being the warmest in
Oltenia;

- 2004, 2008, 2011, 2012 with precipitation below the annual average of the region (574 l/m²).

The largest amount of rainfall occurred in the years:

- 2005, approx. 1080 l / m², almost twice as high as the annual average

- 2014, max. 1147 l / m², twice as much as the annual average

-2010 and 2015 over 800 l / m²

- in the other years there was a quantity above the multiannual average.

Hence, there are big non-periodic variations, which reveal surplus periods with
pluviometric deficiency periods.

11
ERASMUS +

Fig.2 -The average annual temperature (1998-2017)

Analyzing the graph with average annual temperatures, it follows that:

- one of the warmest years was 2000, with 12.5 °C, being considered a very warm year
in the world; in the south of the county were recorded temperatures above 43 °C;
- in 2007, again 12.5 °C ;

- since 2008 the average temperature has risen steadily, often exceeding 11 °C;

- 2015 recorded an average of 12.5 °C, being the year of the extremes, a very warm year,
with many heat waves, cold temperatures and droughts, alternating with periods of atmos-
pheric instability within a short interval of time (led to rapid floods);

- in 2017 there was an increase in the average monthly temperatures and an increase in
heat waves, which resulted in an increased thermal discomfort. On 1 July 2017 at Craiova
there was a maximum of 42 °C, and in the south, in the city of Dăbuleni there were 48°C at
the ground (locality called "Sahara of Oltenia"). The average temperature of 2017 was bigger
than in the other years, exceeding 12.6 °C.

12
 KA2

The year 2018 began with extreme weather, day time temperatures above 12° C in Janu-
ary and beginning of February. On 3 February in Craiova there were 18° C, and in the south at
Bechet 21° C, being the highest temperature in Europe. At a short time (about a week), the
weather suddenly cooled down, a lot of snow fell, it was blizzard, and the night temperature
had negative values (-3° C on February 14, 2018). The same happened in March, when in the
second decade of the month, after spring positive temperatures, a cold wave with solid precipi-
tation occurred, the snow layer reaching 15-20 cm.
Conclusion: the last 3-4 years were the warmest, every year there were:
 excessive summer heat waves, increasing the tropical nights,
 water deficit in the soil in periods when plants needed water,
 periods with unnaturally high temperatures in winter,
 sudden passage from high positive temperatures to negative temperatures during winter and
early spring,
 abundant rainfall over short periods of time and rapid flooding.

13
ERASMUS +

De Martonne Aridity Index

I arDM= P/T+10

Year Value aridity index Year Value aridity index

1998 29 2009 32
1999 31 2010 39
2000 15 2011 23
2001 29,6 2012 24
2002 30 2013 30
2003 33 2014 53
2004 28,6 2015 36
2005 53 2016 32
2006 32 2017 24
2007 33.4
2008 22

After De Martonne's climatic classification, it is observed that the analyzed region falls
within the dry-semiarid climate (2000), moderate-wet (most years) and wet (only in the rainy
years - 2005 and 2014) depending on the evolution of the climate elements taken into account.
These climates favor the development of a steppe vegetation with sandy soils because rainfall is
not evenly spread, and in the summer there are severe droughts especially in the south of the re-
gion, where sand dunes have grown and a climatic aridity takes place. This aridity is determined
by the evolution of climatic elements, but has also been accentuated by the anthropic activity of
the last century:
- cutting forests and forest curtains along the roads and on the cultivated land plots, which lead to
sand shattering by the wind,
- decommissioning of irrigation channels,
- soil destruction through erosion and excessive use of chemical fertilizers.

14
 KA2

CLIMATE CHANGE IN HELLAS , GREECE

This is a short article about the climate change of Hellas. We will inform you about
the annual average temperature, velocity of wind, and precipitation of our city, Serres.
Subsequently we will get to the main point of our project, the de Martonne index .

The climate of the region is characterized as dry with deviation to semi-humid and with
surplus water in the winter. The average annual temperature is 15.2° C, the mean upper tem-
perature is 24.7° C and the mean lower 5.6° C. In August, the absolute maximum temperature
and the lowest rainfall are observed, while in January the absolute minimum temperature.
In particular, in the city of Serres, we must emphasize that in the southern part of the
city , which is more strongly affected by the Belitsa ditch and the Strymonas river, the cli-
mate is more humid in contrast to the northern one, which has a drier climate.
To begin with, we present you the alteration of temperature of our city’s weather over the
last century, in Centigrade degrees. From 1965 to 1999 the annual average temperature was
ranging between 14 and 15,5 Centigrade degrees. However, in 1994, 1998, 1999 the tempera-
ture surpassed the rate of 15,5 centigrade degrees approaching the rate of 16+, as you can see in
the following graph:

15
ERASMUS +

Now, regarding the variation of temperature, over the last decades the mean value has
been changed. The rate of temperature’s average is ranging between 15 and 16.5 Centigrade
degrees introducing a progressive increase, especially the last five years. Concerning the rates
of the annual temperature the lowest was showed up in 2001 and the highest in 2013, as it is
shown in the following chart:

16
 KA2

Although the temperature is not the only factor which affects the climate conditions in a
region. Important enough, seems to be wind’s velocity. From 1964 to 1999 wind’s tempo had
different changes every year on its rates. Their annual averages were ranging between 8 and 15
km/h, having as highest speed in 1981 the rate of 17 km/h and in 1988 the rate of 20+.

On the contrary, the last two decades, specifically from 2000 to 2017, the average of ve-
locity has been reduced. Beginning from the rate of 9.3 km/h in 2003 and 2008 the highest aver-
age of wind’s speed verge the 14.2 km/h in 2013, as it is shown to the following graph:

17
ERASMUS +

Furthermore, considerable factor for climate changes in our region is the precipitation. Our
region is characterized by many rainfalls, due to its geographic position. In millimeters, from
1964 to 1999, rainfall’s levels were having crackles changes. The rainiest year was in 1982 when
the level of the precipitation had surpassed the rate of 700mm, while in 1977 the average of rain-
fall barely touch the 250mm.

As far as it is concerned the latest years, the levels of the rainfall ara ranging between
300mm and 500mm concerning in annual average. The most rainy year seems to be in 2014 as the
level of precipitation approached the rate of 700mm annually when at the same time, the follow-
ing chart present as the most drought season this one in 2013.

18
 KA2

All the previous Data included annual average values of air temperature, relative humidity
and precipitation. But what about the de Martonne index? The de Martonne index calculates the
dryness of a region and highlights the current circumstances basin. It is estimated by the formula :
I = P / T + 10
Where: P-annual rainfall and T-Average Annual Rate of air temperature, de Martonne.
For the last century, the calculation of de Martonne index present that the levels of dryness
were ranging between 10 and 25 having as highest rate the one of 39.

De Martonne index, however, displays a little increase the last few years. The last century
as the lowest index was that one with the rate of 10 but know it has been replaced by the rate of
12, without having important changes concerning the highest de Martonne index, as you can see is
the relative graphs:

19
ERASMUS +

To sum up, comparing the graphs of the 20th and 21st century for the temperature, pre-
cipitation, wind velocity and the de Martonne index we see more fluctuations in the second
ones. That indicates the alarming rate of climate change over the last years.
‘ΕΥΦΑΡΙΣΤΩ’

Serres by night from the acropolis (Koulas)

20
 KA2

CLIMATE CHARACTERISTICS
OF ALTO MINHO

The geographical location of the region imposes climatic characteristics of transition

between the Northern cold and wet climates of Europe, and the hot and dry climates of
Africa. Although, under the climatic point of view, the Mediterranean influence is felt through-
out the length of the country, in the peninsular Northwest, so this territorial space predominates
with some evidence the Atlantic influence.
Variations of average annual temperature is small due to the regulating effect of the
Atlantic lying between the 7,5ºC and 15 ° C. The temperature variations increase as one goes
from the coast to the interior and progresses in height.
In general, it can be said that the winters are mild and summers are cool. The masses of
humid air from the ocean, mountain climb to find the barrier which delimits the region which
begins right next to the sea, causing their condensation and high rainfall throughout the re-
gion. They are the highest in this zone precipitation of Europe, which can reach 3,400 mm in
the annual upland inside. Note, however, that is in relation to rainfall that most are felt the char-
acteristics of Mediterranean climates.

21
ERASMUS +

The rainfall distribution is uneven throughout the year, focusing between December and
March (with about 50% of the annual precipitation). In contrast, the summer months, June
to September, do not receive more than 12% of that annual precipitation.
The frosts is virtually zero on the coastline, increasing as it goes inward and altitude. In
some places, the frost risk period reaches three months, usually from October / November
to March. Already the sunlight, with minimum values in winter and maximum in July, with
average values in the order of 2400 hours of sunshine discovered by year, and this value
decreases from the coast to the interior.

Annual temperature and rainfall in mainland Portugal (period 1931-2018)

The year 2018, in mainland Portugal, was classified as normal, with regard to air temperature
as well as rainfall.
The year 2018 registered an average value of average air temperature of 15.37°C, +0.11°C
compared to normal value 1971-2000 (climatological normal). It should be noted that the 5
warmest years have occurred in the last 30 years.
Regarding rainfall, the average annual value of the amount of precipitation was 939.9 mm,
corresponding to about 107% of the normal value. Rainfall values higher than those recorded
in 2018 occurred in about 40% of the years, since 1931. It should be noted that the 4 driest
years since 1931 all occurred after 2003.2008 and 2012) and rainfall below 120% in relation
to the 1971-2000 normal (except 2010 and 2014).

22
 KA2

It can also be seen that, since the beginning of the 21st century, almost all years recorded aver-
age temperatures near or above the average values of the 1971-2000 period (except 2002, 2008
and 2012) and rainfall below 120% in relation to the 1971-2000 normal (except 2010 and
2014).
Annual minimum and maximum air temperatures in mainland Portugal

Annual rainfall anomalies in the 1931-2018 compared to the 1971-2000 normal value

The average annual total precipitation value in 2018, 939.9 mm, corresponds to 107% (in
relation to the 1971-2000 normal).
During 2018, the values of precipitation in the months of March (extremely rainy) and De-
cember (very dry) stand out.

23
ERASMUS +

The following events are noteworthy in 2018:

 Meteorological drought in the months of January and February;
 Occurrence of adverse weather events in March (rain and wind), which contributed to the
end of the severe drought situation (2nd rainiest March since 1931);
 Three tornados: two in March, one in April;
 The coolest month of July since 2000;
 Extremely hot and extremely dry weather in August and September;
 Passage of the subtropical storm Leslie through mainland Portugal at the end of October 13;
 Episodes of intense rainfall on November 11 in the Northern and Central regions.

De Martonne aridity index

Due to its efficiency and relevance with respect to identifying dry and humid conditions in dif-
ferent climatic zones worldwide the De Martonne aridity index is going to be computed and
analyzed. In this study the methodology presented by De Martonne is followed, as such, DMI
is defined by: DMI=P/T+10
As abovementioned, the evaluation of the aridity conditions in the Iberian Peninsula was un-
dertaken throughout the computation of the De Martonne aridity index and the Pinna combina-
tive index. Both indices will be analyzed on an annual time scale, due to the definition re-
strictions of the DMI.

24
 KA2

This study is focused on the spatial analysis of two aridity indices for portugal during 1901
and 2012, the De Martonne Aridity index and the Pinna Combinative index. Due to the over-
all warming trends observed in the last decades, the temporal evolution was assessed in three
sub- periods: 1901-1940, 1941-1980 and 1981-2012.
Due to its location the geographical contrasts of Portugal strongly influence the spatial and
temporal variability of its climate. The proximity of the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean
Sea play a relevant role in the annual precipitation totals and mean air temperature distribu-
tions. Results show the intra-annual variability of both precipitation totals and air tempera-
ture for the portuguese territory.
Results for DMI and PCI show that for the entire period of this study (1901−2012) Portugal
experienced annual humid to very humid conditions in its northermost portion, semi-dry to
dry conditions in the inner and south-eastern regions and mediterranean to humid conditions
in between. An increase in the dry conditions in its southern half is worth emphasizing be-
tween 1981−2012. This increase is highlighted by a clear change in the signal of the anoma-
lies in both indices during this period in comparison with the others. Also by the percentage
of years that undergone semi-dry and humid to excessively humid climatic conditions for all
periods.
Overall, the south-easternmost region of Portugal is clearly becoming drier (more arid). The-
se conclusions stress the importance of assessing the changes of the spatial distribution of
the climatic characteristics of a region. The observed changes in the spatial distributions of
these indices in the last decades highlight the need for the implementation of better water
resources management policies. It is quite evident that a decrease in precipitation and an in-
crease in temperatures have a severe impact in water storage, both superficial and subterra-
nean. Consequently, an increase in water demand for agriculture and human consumption
leads to a decrease in water quality and amount in all reservoirs. Hence these consequences
must not be overlooked in order to warrant a better sustainable future.

Variation coefficient of (a) DMI, (b) PCI and (c) correlation

coefficient between DMI and PCI for 1901-2012.

25
ERASMUS +