Abstract Number 32

Analysis of Lateral Placement and Movement of Vehicles on Urban

Undivided Roads in Mixed Traffic
Punith B. Kotagi1, Pooja Raj2 and Gowri Asaithambi3
1
Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology Karnataka, Mangalore-575025
India, Email: punithk@nitk.edu.in, Tel: +91-9986998227
2
M.Tech (Research) Student, Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology Karnataka,
Mangalore-575025 India, Email: poojarajhere@gmail.com, Tel: +91-8547811375
3
Assistant Professor (Corresponding Author), Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology
Karnataka, Mangalore-575025 India, Email: gowri@nitk.ac.in, Tel: +91-824-2473366

Abstract
In India, majority of urban roads are undivided where the behavior of flows in a particular direction is predominantly
influenced by the opposing traffic. Due to lack of lane segregation, the vehicles in ongoing direction occupy the
opposing lane which increases the lateral interactions between vehicles. These lateral interactions are influenced by
various parameters such as vehicle types, driver behavior and vehicular speeds. Study of such interactions through
analytical methods is again a complex process. Simulation models play a significant role to evaluate such complex
traffic situations, where it is necessary to study the lateral characteristics of vehicles such as, placement, separation
and movement. Present study mainly focuses on the analysis of lateral characteristics of vehicles on two-lane urban
undivided roads. Traffic data was collected from an urban undivided mid-block section in Bangalore city, India using
video graphic technique. Multiple linear regression model was developed for predicting the lateral placement of
subject vehicle and it was found that lateral placement of subject vehicle is influenced by types and speeds of subject
and opposing vehicles. Lateral separation for different types of ongoing (subject)-opposite pairs were also obtained.
The results of pairwise analysis shows that both the ongoing and opposing vehicles have less freedom to move laterally
when the size of either vehicle increases and hence, lateral separation decreases. The lateral shifts of vehicles on urban
undivided roads were modeled using multinomial logistic regression. Lateral shift of a vehicle is influenced by speeds
of subject vehicle and leader in current path, speed of leader in target path, and lateral gap between leaders in current
path and target path.

Keywords: Lateral Placement, Lateral Separation, Lateral Movement, Urban Undivided Roads, Mixed Traffic

1. Introduction

In developing countries like India, traffic is highly heterogeneous in nature with variations in their static and dynamic
characteristics. In mixed traffic conditions, lane discipline is not observed and the vehicles tend to occupy any lateral
position available on the road space. The vehicles moving in such stream interacts in both lateral and longitudinal
directions. Due to non-lane discipline, the lateral placement of vehicles in such mixed traffic will vary considerably
when compared to lane discipline and homogeneous traffic. Also, the lateral movement of vehicles are significantly
higher in mixed traffic conditions. These complex lateral movements are further increased in case of undivided roads
particularly on urban areas. Due to lack of lane segregation, the vehicles in ongoing direction occupy the opposing
lane which increases the lateral interactions between vehicles. These lateral interactions are influenced by various
parameters such as vehicle types, driver behavior and vehicular speeds. Modeling such interactions through analytical
methods is difficult and hence, it is essential to study the lateral characteristics of vehicle such as lateral placement
and separation and lateral movement so as to develop a microscopic traffic simulation model for bidirectional traffic.

The study of lateral placement and movement also finds important applications in traffic control and management,
geometric design of roads, accident analysis, and estimation of level of service and road capacity. The earlier studies
which focus on traffic flow characteristics of homogeneous and mixed traffic conditions were limited to divided roads.
There are only few attempts made to study the lateral placement of vehicles on urban undivided roads under mixed

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traffic conditions. Moreover, there are only limited studies on lateral movement behavior of vehicles in mixed traffic
conditions. Based on the above research motivation, the main objective of this study is to analyze the lateral placement
and movement of vehicles on urban undivided roads under mixed traffic conditions with the following specific
objectives:
(i) To study and model the lateral placement of different types of vehicles.
(ii) To study and analyze lateral separation between different types of subject and opposing vehicles.
(iii) To study and model lateral movement behavior of vehicles.
To investigate these objectives, traffic data was collected from an urban mid-block section of an undivided
road in Bangalore city. To achieve the first objective, lateral position and speed of different types of vehicles in
ongoing and opposing directions were obtained and modeled using multiple linear regression. For second objective,
the lateral separation between different types of ongoing and opposing vehicles were obtained and analyzed. For
achieving the third objective, lateral shifts carried out by different types of vehicles were analyzed and modeled.
The rest of the paper is structured as follows: Section 2 gives a detailed review of literature focusing on
studies related to lateral placement and movements of vehicles on both divided and undivided roads under
homogeneous and mixed traffic conditions. The process of data collection and extraction is discussed in Section 3.
Section 4 presents the results of lateral placement and separation of vehicles. In Section 5, discussion on lateral
movement behaviour of vehicles and model development is presented. Finally, the summary and conclusions of the
study are presented in Section 6.

2. Literature Review

Previous studies related to lateral placement and movements of vehicles on both divided and undivided roads under
homogeneous and mixed conditions were reviewed.

Woods (1972) studied the effect of restrictions imposed by bridge abutments on lateral placement of vehicles on rural
two-way, two-lane highways. The results indicated that by increasing the amount of offset between the traffic lane
edge and the bridge abutment and by reflectorizing the bridge abutments, drivers positioned their vehicle more
correctly within their lane. Summala and Merisalo (1978) stated that with the decrease in speed there is a greater shift
towards the right, particularly during night driving. This study is limited to overcome the problems related to different
methods used to measure lateral position of vehicles on the road. Miller and Steuart (1982) studied the lateral
placement of vehicles at five sites of the Toronto metropolitan area. They investigated the effect of lateral placement
of vehicles, lane width, and lane type on the speed of vehicles, and they concluded that no explicit relationship exists
between the lateral placement and forward speed. They introduced a term ‘‘free space ratio (Rf)’’ to describe the
relationship between the variance in placement and average lateral placement. Armour (1985) studied the effect of
road cross section on vehicle lateral placement. Author identified that the main factors influencing lateral placement
are shoulder type and lane width. Vehicles travelled further from the centre line as lane width increased. It was also
observed that the presence of edge lines had no obvious effect on lateral placement. Blab and Litzka (1995) measured
the lateral distribution of heavy vehicles (HV) and also attempted to find out the effect of lateral placement on the
design of road pavements. They developed shift factor (SF) to describe the relation between speed and rutting. Lennie
and Bunker (2005) compared the behavioral characteristics of passenger car drivers surrounding multi-combination
vehicles using lateral position characteristics. It was observed that passenger car behavior changes around heavy
vehicles when compared to passenger cars. There is no significant difference in passenger car behavior around semi-
trailers than B-doubles. Bunker and Parajuli (2006) studied lateral positions of cars and HVs at a two lane, two way
motorway in the Port of Brisbane. Opposing traffic and length of opposing vehicle found to have an influence on the
lateral positions of cars, utility vehicles, and semitrailer statistically but for B-doubles the influence was not significant
Dey et al. (2006) studied the lateral position of vehicles under mixed traffic conditions. They found that the placement
of vehicles may follow a unimodal or a bimodal curve depending upon the percentage of slow and fast moving
vehicles. They introduced two parameters such as Placement Factor (PF) and Skewness Range (SR) to describe the
placement of vehicles and they concluded that the placement data follow a unimodal curve if PF and SR are less than
1.30 and 0.54, respectively. Balaji et al. (2013) studied the relation of placement and speed of different vehicles on
two lane state highways. The analysis showed that three-wheelers, heavy vehicles and slow moving vehicles follow a
linear relation, while two-wheelers and cars follow a second degree polynomial relation. The vehicles as a whole
followed a second degree polynomial relation. Mahapatra and Maurya (2013) analyzed lateral and longitudinal
behavior of vehicles in mixed traffic condition on Indian highway. It was observed that there exist an inverse
relationship between the speed and the lateral characteristics. Caleb et al. (2014) presented vehicle type variant models
of lateral movement tactical decision and choice making of vehicles on eastern express highway, Mumbai city. They

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studied the motivation behind a driver to perform a lateral shift by comparing the speeds of the subject vehicle and
that of the lead vehicle in the current lane. In the selection of a target path, the front vehicle speeds and the lead space
gaps of the immediate left and right paths were analyzed. Mahapatra and Maurya (2015) analyzed the impact of
different lane positions on average travel speed, time headway and lateral clearances for four-lane, six-lane and eight-
lane divided highways. They concluded that there exists a wide variation in the lane specific vehicular speed, traffic
composition, time headway and lateral gap in mixed traffic condition of Indian highways.
From the literature review, it was found that only limited aspects on lateral behavior of vehicles under mixed
traffic conditions were addressed. Most of the studies on lateral placement and movement of vehicles were done on
divided roads and also, on highways. However, only limited attempts were made to study the lateral placement and
movement of vehicles on urban undivided roads. Hence, there is a need to study the lateral placement and movement
of vehicles on urban undivided roads under non-lane based mixed traffic conditions.

3. Data Collection and Extraction

The data for this study was collected using video-graphic technique during morning peak hours (8.30 am – 9.30 am)
for two weekdays on a midblock section of a 12 m wide two-way urban undivided road located in Bangalore city,
India. The road section of 30 m length which is free from the effect of intersection, bus-stops, parked vehicles and
pedestrians was considered for the study. The disaggregate data was extracted from the video images using a computer
software, Irfanview. This software enables to extract 25 frames for one second video data. Gridlines with sufficient
scale were plotted in AUTOCAD with obtained (X, Y) image coordinates and then overlaid on video by using Ulead
Video Studio 10.0 editor. Knowing distances on the ground and corresponding coordinates on the screen, correction
factors (screen to ground) were worked out to remove the parallax effect due to camera angle. The data such as lateral
position of vehicles in ongoing direction, lateral separation between vehicles in ongoing direction and opposing
direction, and lateral shift of vehicles were obtained from the frames extracted using Irfanview. The road width was
divided into lateral blocks of 1 m wide and longitudinal blocks of each 2 m length. Figures 1 and 2 shows the gridlines
overlaid on video image and the layout of the study section, respectively.

FOOTPATH

Ongoing Traffic (Towards CPRI)

12 m
Opposing Traffic (Towards MSR)

FOOTPATH

30 m

Figure 1 Gridlines Overlaid on Video Image of the Study Section Figure 2 Layout of the Study Section

The volume count of vehicles during peak hours in ongoing and opposing direction was obtained from the
video data. The on-going traffic at the section moving towards Central Power Research Institute (CPRI) comprises
about 3541 motorized vehicles per hour, where two-wheelers accounted for the largest share of 63.7% and heavy
vehicles (LCV, Trucks, Buses) with the least share of 1.9%. The traffic in the opposing direction (towards MSR
Hospital) at the section comprises about 908 motorized vehicles per hour, where two-wheelers accounted for the
largest share of 57.6% and heavy vehicles with the least share of 4.4%. The traffic composition for each direction is
shown in Figure 3.

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(a) Ongoing direction (towards CPRI) (b) Opposing direction (towards MSR)

Figure 3 Vehicular Composition in the Study Section

4. Analysis of Lateral Behavior of Vehicles

Lateral placement of a vehicle is defined as the closest lateral position of the vehicle from the edge of the pavement
when the vehicle is in motion. The carriageway width was divided into segments of 50 cm each for determining lateral
position of vehicles. When the vehicle touches the reference line on the middle of the road section (15 m), the closest
lateral position of the vehicle from the edge of the pavement was noted down and also, the time taken to travel the
trap length was recorded.
When two vehicles opposed each other within the stretch, the closest distance between the vehicles when the lengths
of the vehicles overlap each other was recorded as the lateral separation. Lateral separations and lateral positions were
calculated from the image coordinates obtained using correction factors.

4.1 Lateral Placement of Vehicles

Frequency distribution for lateral position of vehicles in ongoing direction is shown in Figure 4. It is found that
majority of the vehicles (70.9%) are preferred to travel in the middle of the road (3-7 m). Two-wheelers and auto-
rickshaws occupy almost the entire width of the road as they have a tendency to occupy every lateral gap available on
the road due to their smaller sizes and higher manoeuverability. Most of the cars (78.8%) prefer to travel near the
middle of the road compared to two-wheelers (63.7%) and auto-rickshaws (76.1%) so as to maintain higher speeds.
All the heavy vehicles (HV) are concentrated near the middle of the road (3-7 m) so as to avoid side interferences
from other vehicles. Descriptive statistics for lateral position and speed of each type of vehicle is shown in Table 1.
The mean speed of two-wheelers is higher (12.7 m/s) because of their smaller sizes and higher manoeuverability
whereas heavy vehicles (HV) travel at a lower mean speed (11.2 m/s) due to their larger size and lower
manoeuverability. It is also found that the mean lateral position of all types of vehicles is in the range of 4-5 m from
the edge of the pavement which indicates that most of the vehicles prefer to travel near the middle of the road. The
one-way ANOVA test indicates that the lateral positions of vehicle types are significantly different (Fobs= 8.61,
Fcrit=2.61, degrees of freedom (dof) = 1848) from each other at 5% level of significance.

Figure 4 Frequency Distribution for Lateral Position of Different Types of Vehicles

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Table 1 Descriptive Statistics of Lateral Position and Speed of Vehicles

Sample Lateral Position (m) Speed (m/s)

Vehicle Type
size Mean SD Min Max Mean SD Min Max
Aggregate 1849 4.5 1.8 1.3 11.8 12.6 2.5 2.1 16.7
Two-wheelers 980 4.4 1.9 1.3 11.5 12.7 1.9 2.1 16.7
Auto-rickshaws 197 4.4 1.6 1.3 9.6 11.5 1.6 5.1 16.3
Cars 619 4.8 1.7 1.3 11.8 12.6 2.2 4.7 16.7
Heavy vehicles 53 4.6 1.3 3.1 7.1 11.2 2.7 7.4 16.3
*SD = Standard Deviation

Graphs were plotted between the lateral position and speed for different types of vehicles (Figure 5).
Regression analysis was done and its goodness was checked by the value of coefficient of correlation. For the
development of model, 75% of the total data was considered and the remaining 25% was used for validation. The
graphs show that all the four types of vehicles followed a second degree polynomial relation. Most of the two-wheelers
have higher speeds near the middle of the road because of their tendency for overtaking and also, they are not much
influenced by the opposing vehicles, due to their higher manoeuverability. The speeds of auto-rickshaws and cars are
not varying much up to the middle of the road and then start decreasing when they move in the opposing lane due to
the influence of opposing vehicles. As the motion of heavy vehicles is not disturbed by the presence of other vehicles
and also due to their lower manoeuverability, they travel at lower speeds.

(a) Two-wheelers (b) Auto-rickshaws

(c) Cars (d) Heavy vehicles

Figure 5 Relationship between Lateral Position and Speed of Ongoing vehicles

Speeds of a vehicle opposing the subject vehicle in ongoing traffic were also extracted. Graphs were plotted
between the lateral position of ongoing vehicle and speed of vehicles in the opposite direction to study the influence
of the speed of opposing vehicles on lateral positions of ongoing vehicles (Figure 6). The results indicate that when
the ongoing vehicles are travelling in their corresponding path, speed of the vehicles in the opposite direction has no
much variation. However, the speeds started decreasing when the position of the ongoing vehicles shifted towards the
opposing lane. The predicted speed values from the model were compared with the speed values observed from the
field for different lateral positions. Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) was calculated for each lateral position
and they were found to be less than 15% for all the vehicle types, which conform the limits (15%) as proposed by

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Mathew and Radhakrishnan (2010), and Gowri and Sivanandan (2015). This indicates that the model replicates the
field conditions reasonably.

(a) Two-wheelers (b) Auto-rickshaws

(c) Cars (d) Heavy vehicles

Figure 6 Relationship between Lateral Position of Ongoing Vehicles and Speed of Opposing Vehicles

Lateral placement of vehicles in an undivided road cannot be explained only by studying the distribution of
vehicles and hence, lateral placement was also examined by considering the lateral position of subject vehicle when
opposed by other vehicles and also when unopposed. The one-way ANOVA test was performed to check whether
there is any significant difference in lateral position of different types of ongoing vehicles when they are opposed and
also when they are unopposed. ANOVA test results are shown in Table 2. For two-wheelers, cars and auto-rickshaws,
the results indicate that the two distributions are statistically different. These vehicles adjust their lateral position when
opposed. However, in the case of heavy vehicles their lateral positions do not vary significantly when opposed than
when unopposed. It shows that heavy vehicles are not much influenced by opposing vehicles.

Table 2 ANOVA Tests comparing Unopposed against Opposed Lateral Positions

Distributions compared Sample size F obs F crit p-value

Two–wheelers unopposed against opposed 1710 4.4 3.8 0.04
Auto-rickshaws unopposed against opposed 250 4.8 3.9 0.04
Cars unopposed against opposed 998 4.8 3.9 0.04
HV unopposed against opposed 66 0.5 4.0 0.52

Frequency distributions of lateral positions of two-wheelers, cars, auto rickshaws and heavy vehicles when
opposed and unopposed are shown in Figure 7. It can also be observed that two-wheelers are laterally distributed
almost on the entire road width due to smaller sizes and higher manoeuverability. They are not much influenced by
opposing vehicles and try to squeeze in between the vehicles. In case of cars and auto-rickshaws when opposed by
other vehicles, most of them occupy the home lane maintaining a safe lateral distance with the opposite vehicles as
they have larger sizes compared to two–wheelers. Most of the heavy vehicles are concentrated near the middle of the
road (3 m – 6 m) even if they are opposed by other vehicles as they are not disturbed by any other vehicles due to their
larger sizes (other vehicles move away from the path of heavy vehicles).

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 (a) Two-wheelers (b) Auto-rickshaws

(c) Cars (d) Heavy vehicles

Figure 7 Frequency Distributions of Lateral Positions of Different Types of Vehicles When Opposed and Unopposed

4.1.1 Multiple Linear Regression Model for Predicting Lateral Position

A model was developed using regression analysis to predict the lateral position of subject vehicle with a set of
explanatory variables. Correlation analysis was done to select the most influencing variables and to eliminate the
irrelevant variables. After performing correlation analysis, it was found that types and speeds of subject and opposing
vehicles except the type of HV are the most influencing variables. Multiple linear regression model was developed
for predicting lateral position of subject vehicle. The model was developed using 75% of the total data and remaining
25% was used for validation.
Any regression model is accepted based on model goodness of fit, significance of overall model and
significance of independent variables. The R2 value (goodness of fit) of the model is obtained as 0.55. The model has
F–statistics more than the critical value (Fobs=19.42, Fcrit = 2.42, dof =889), implying that the model is statistically
significant. The parameter estimate represents the average change in dependent variable for every unit increase in the
independent variable, given that other variables in the model are held constant. The developed model has the following
specification as shown in equation 1.

Lateral position of subject vehicle (Y) = b0 + b1* X1 + b2* X2 + b3* X3 + b4* X4 + b5* X5
+ b6 *X6 + b7* X7 + b8* X8 ……………… 1

Where, b0 is a constant, b1, b2, b3, b4, b5, b6, b7 and b8 are the coefficients of independents variables. X1, X2, X3, X4,
X5, X6, X7 and X8. X1, X2 and X3 represents presence of two-wheelers, cars and auto-rickshaws as ongoing vehicle
types. X5, X6, X7 represents presence of two-wheelers, cars and auto-rickshaws as opposing vehicle types. X4
represents speed of ongoing vehicle and X8 represents speed of opposing vehicle. The values of coefficients, t-statistics
and p-value for the developed model were checked to identify the significant variables. After checking for
significance, regression analysis was repeated only by using those variables which are significant and the coefficients
were estimated. (Table 3).

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 -Table 3 Estimation of Coefficients for MLR Model

Explanatory Variables Coefficients Standard t Stat p-value

(b) Error
Constant 11.95 1.26 9.49 0.00
Presence of Two-wheeler (Ongoing) 3.84 0.56 6.86 0.00
Presence of Auto-Rickshaw (Ongoing) 3.62 0.51 7.07 0.00
Speed of Ongoing Vehicle 0.34 0.09 3.73 0.00
Speed of Opposing Vehicle -1.12 0.10 -11.73 0.00
When the speed of the subject vehicle increases, it will move towards the middle of the road or to the opposing
lane when there is no opposing vehicle mainly for the purpose of overtaking. Subject vehicle shifts towards left of the
road when speed of opposing vehicles increases in-order to avoid collision with the opposing vehicles. The presence
of two-wheelers and auto-rickshaws as ongoing vehicles has significant influence on lateral position of subject
vehicles as they occupy almost the entire road width due to their smaller sizes and higher manoeuverability. The
predicted values and the observed value were compared and MAPE was calculated. It was found that the model
replicates the field conditions reasonably as the MAPE obtained is less than 15%.

4.2 Lateral Separation of Vehicles

Descriptive statistics for lateral separation of different types of vehicles is shown in Table 4. It is observed that lateral
separation decreases as the size of the subject vehicle increases. From the table, it is found that two-wheelers have a
higher mean lateral separation of 4.7 m whereas heavy vehicles have minimum mean lateral separation of 2.7 m.
Lateral separation for different types of ongoing (subject)-opposite pairs were also obtained. The results of pairwise
analysis shows that both the ongoing and opposing vehicles have less freedom to move laterally when the size of
either vehicle increases and hence, lateral separation decreases. From the Table 5, it is found that due to smaller sizes
in case of two-wheeler- two-wheeler pair, lateral separation is more whereas car-car pair have minimum lateral
separation due to their larger sizes compared to other pairs such as two-wheeler- auto-rickshaws, two-wheeler- cars,
auto-rickshaws-two-wheelers, auto-rickshaws-cars, cars- two-wheelers and cars- auto-rickshaws. The one-way
ANOVA test was performed to check whether there is any significant difference in the lateral separation of vehicles.
The result indicates that the lateral separation of vehicles are significantly different (Fobs= 90.08, Fcrit=2.62, dof =
1216) for different types of vehicles at 5% level of significance.

Table 4 Descriptive Statistics for Lateral Separation of Different Type of Vehicles

Sample Lateral separation (m)
Vehicle Type
size Mean SD Min Max
Aggregate 1217 3.8 1.6 0.6 8.6
Two-wheelers 598 4.7 1.8 0.9 8.6
Auto-rickshaws 152 4.2 1.2 0.9 7.8
Cars 384 2.9 1.4 0.6 8.0
Heavy vehicles 83 2.7 1.4 1.4 6.7
Table 5 Summary Statistics for Lateral Separation of Ongoing-Opposing Vehicle Pairs

Sample Lateral Separation (m)

Ongoing-Opposing vehicle pairs
size Mean SD Min Max
Two-wheelers- Two-wheelers 129 5.5 1.6 1.7 8.8
Two-wheelers- Auto-rickshaws 51 4.6 1.2 1.9 7.7
Two-wheelers- Cars 137 4.1 1.3 0.6 7.4
Auto-rickshaws – Two-wheelers 24 5.0 1.0 3.2 7.4
Auto-rickshaws- Cars 28 3.3 1.1 0.9 5.5
Cars- Two-wheelers 109 3.7 1.1 1.3 6.6
Cars- Auto-rickshaws 43 3.1 1.1 0.5 4.9
Cars- Cars 43 3.0 1.1 0.5 4.9
Lateral separation also depends on the speed of subject and opposing vehicles. It is clear that lateral gap maintained
by the on-going vehicle with opposing vehicle is more when the speed of the opposite vehicle is higher (Table 6).

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Figure 8 represents the relationship between lateral separation and speed of opposing vehicles for varying speed ranges
of subject vehicle. It indicates that lateral separation between subject and opposing vehicles increases with the increase
in speed of the opposing vehicle.
Table 6 Lateral Separation Vs Speed of Subject and Opposing Vehicles

Sample Lateral Separation (m)

Cases
size Mean SD Min Max
Speed of Opposing vehicle > Speed of Subject vehicle 408 3.9 1.7 0.5 8.9
Speed of Opposing vehicle = Speed of Subject vehicle 22 3.8 1.8 1.4 7.4
Speed of Opposing vehicle < Speed of Subject vehicle 315 3.7 1.6 0.6 7.9

Speed of
Subject Vehicle

Figure 8 Relationship between Lateral Separation and Speed of Opposing Vehicles

5. Analysis of Lateral Movement of Vehicles

Lateral movement is defined as the interaction of a vehicle with other vehicles on its sides. Lateral movement can be
classified into three stages such as the motivation to change the current path, the selection of a path (either to the left
or right) to change into and the execution of the lateral movement (Caleb et al.2014). In this study, the first two stages
were examined. To study and model these lateral movement of vehicles, data collected for two hours on 40 m section
of urban mid-block section in Bangalore was used. Lateral shift is defined as the type of lateral movement in which
the subject vehicle moves its lateral position equal to its width under the influence of the leader vehicle. Any front
vehicle within the 40 m stretch, whose width completely or partially overlaps with the width of subject vehicle is
called leader. In undivided roads, since the ongoing traffic is predominantly influenced by opposing traffic, the effect
of opposing vehicle on lateral shifts was also studied. In this study, total numbers of lateral shifts obtained are 294
including left shift (16.32%) and right shift (83.67%) out of which 76.8% of lateral shifts are performed by two-
wheelers

5.1 Motivation for Lateral Movement

In lane changing manoeuvers, Mandatory Lane Changing (MLC) happens when drivers have to leave the current lane
compulsorily. Discretionary Lane Changing (DLC) manoeuvers are executed when the drivers are not satisfied with
the driving situation in the current lane and wish to gain a speed advantage. In this study, the traffic characteristics
which may motivate drivers to perform discretionary lateral movement manoeuvers were investigated. The
relationship between the subject vehicle speed and the front vehicle speed in the current path is shown in Figure 11.
The results show that the subject vehicle speed is more than the leader speed for 60.2% cases of all vehicles. The
greater values of the subject vehicle speed compared to the leader may encourage drivers to perform a lateral shift. To
test whether the subject vehicle speeds differ significantly with leader speeds, a t-test assuming unequal variances was
conducted on the null hypothesis that their speeds do not differ significantly. The mean speed of subject vehicle (13.27
m/s) is found to be greater than the mean speed of leader vehicle (12.19 m/s) in case of all vehicles. The null hypothesis
is thus rejected (tstat=5.86, tcrit= 1.96).

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5.2 Selection of the Target Path
In DLC manoeuvers, drivers may select either the left or the right adjacent path as their target path. The traffic
characteristics in both adjacent paths were analyzed to investigate the traffic flow characteristics which may influence
the selection of the target path. The alternative path is either the left or the right depending on the target path.
5.2.1 Speeds of Surrounding Vehicles in Current Path, Target Path and Alternative Path
Leader vehicle speeds in current path are compared to leader vehicle speeds in target and alternative path. Figure 9
and Figure 10 shows the relationship between speeds of leader vehicle in current path and target path. For all vehicles,
the target leader speed is greater than the leader vehicle speed in the current lane for 73.3% cases. However, there are
only 27.7% cases where the alternate leader speeds are more than the leader speed in the current path in case of all
vehicles (Figure 11). This shows that the speed of leader vehicle in the target path plays an important role in making
the decision of lateral shift of subject vehicles. The t-test conducted enhances these arguments and the results indicate
that the mean speed of leader in current path (11.23 m/s) is significantly lesser than the mean speed of leader in target
path (12.55 m/s) in case of all vehicles (tstat= 2.54, tcrit= 1.96). On the other hand, the leader vehicle speeds in the
current path (12.3 m/s) are significantly more than the speeds in the alternative path (11.7 m/s) for all vehicles (tstat=
1.98, tcrit= 1.96).

All Vehicles All Vehicles

Figure 9 Relationship between Speed of Subject Vehicle Figure 10 Relationship between Speeds of Leader in Current
and Leader in the Current Path and Target Path

5.2.2 Longitudinal Gaps in the Target and Alternate Paths

The relationship between longitudinal gaps in target path and alternative path is shown in Figure 12. The graph
indicates that only for 21.1% cases of all vehicles, longitudinal gap is greater in target path than in alternate path.
Hence, the result reveals that longitudinal space gap is not an influential variable for choosing its path. The t-test
results show that the longitudinal gap in target path (long t) is significantly lesser than the longitudinal gap in alternate
path (long a) in case of all vehicles (long t= 18.5 m, long a= 21.1 m, tstat = 3.65, tcrit = 1.96).

All Vehicles All Vehicles

Figure 11 Relationship between Speeds of Leader in Figure 12 Relationship between Longitudinal Gaps
Current Path and Alternate Path in Target Path and Alternative Path

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5.2.3 Lateral Gaps in the Target and Alternate Paths
The relationship between lateral gaps in the target path and alternate path is shown in Figure 13. Lateral gap in the
target path is more than that in the alternate path for 83.2% cases. Thus, the subject vehicle has a tendency to choose
the correct target path. Lateral gap is an influencing factor in selection of the path. The mean lateral gap in the target
path (7 m) is found to be greater than the lateral gap in the alternate path (4.1 m) in case of all vehicles. The null
hypothesis is thus rejected (tstat=16.4, tcrit= 1.96).

5.2.4 Influence of Opposing Vehicles on Lateral Movement

For undivided roads, it is necessary to study the influence of opposing vehicles on the lateral movement of a subject
vehicle. Lateral position of the leader vehicle in current path is compared with lateral gap between leader in current
path and opposing vehicle. Lateral gap in the target path is found to be more in 72.2% cases of all vehicles (Figure
14). So, vehicles freely shift towards the target path. The lateral gap in the target path (5.6 m) is significantly more
than the lateral gap in the alternate path (4.2 m) in case of all vehicles (tstat= 8.42, tcrit= 1.96).

All Vehicles All Vehicles

Figure 13 Relationship between Lateral Gaps in Target Path Figure 14 Relationship between Lateral Gap in Target Path
and Alternate Path and Alternate Path (Influence of Opposing Vehicle)

5.3 Multinomial Logistic Regression Model

Multinomial logistic regression is used to model the choices of lateral shift made by all vehicles using SPSS. The
speeds of leaders and lateral gaps in the target and alternate path turned out to be the influential variables for the choice
of path. 75% data was used for model development and remaining 25% for validation. Dependent variable is choice
of lateral shift (Left, Right and Current) and the significant independent variables are sizes of subject vehicle, leader
vehicle, right adjacent leader, left adjacent leader, lateral gap between leader and right adjacent leader, lateral gap
between leader and left adjacent leader, lateral gap between leader and opposing vehicle, relative speed between
subject vehicle and leader, relative speed between leader and right adjacent leader, and relative speed between leader
and left adjacent leader. The statistical significance of the overall model is determined using a log likelihood ratio chi-
square test. The log likelihood chi-square test showed that the final model is statistically significant at 0.05 significance
level (p–value= 0.000). Hence, there exists a relationship between the independent and dependent variables.

5.3.1 Estimation Results

The estimated results were obtained as an output of the model. The output includes the coefficient values, values of
standard error, Wald test and significance value. Current path is considered as a reference category in the model and
hence, the coefficients obtained are the values indicating the ratios of left shift to the current path and right shift to the
current path. The significance of each independent variable is checked by the value of standard error (which should
be less than 2) and the significance value (p value which should be less than the level of significance of 0.05).
Parameter estimates of the target path choice models are presented in Table 7.

The McFadden pseudo R2 is generally used to determine the goodness of fit of the models. The McFadden
pseudo R2 value obtained for the model is 0.452. From the model, it was found that the decrease in subject vehicle
size and increase in leader vehicle size increases the probability of a subject vehicle to choose either left or right shift
compared to probability of travelling in current path. The increase in lateral gap between leader in current path and
target path increases the probability of a subject vehicle to shift either to left or right compared to probability of
travelling in current path. When the relative speed between subject vehicle and leader gives a negative sign, the

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probability of a subject vehicle to shift either to left or right increases compared to probability of travelling in current
path. The increase in relative speed between leader in current path and adjacent leaders increase or decrease the
probability of a subject vehicle to shift to right or left compared to probability of travelling in current path. Since the
road section is undivided, lateral gap between leader in current path and opposing vehicle also influences the lateral
movement. The increase in lateral gap between leader in current path and opposing vehicle increases the probability
of a subject vehicle to shift to right and decreases the probability to shift to left compared to probability of travelling
in current path. The model was validated using 25% data and the coefficients of the developed and validated model
were compared. The results show that the percentage error obtained is less than 3%.

Table 7 Parameter Estimates of the Model

Lateral Shifts a Variables Coefficient, B Std. Error Wald Sig.

Left Lateral Shift Intercept 0.486 1.455 0.111 0.73

Subject vehicle size -3.116 0.702 19.68 0.00
Leader vehicle size 1.741 0.487 12.76 0.00
Lateral gap between leader and right -0.082 0.165 2.251
adjacent leader 0.00
Lateral gap between leader and left adjacent 0.659 0.191 11.87
leader 0.00
Relative speed between subject and leader -0.23 0.119 3.725
vehicles 0.04
Relative speed between leader and right -0.195 0.071 7.577
adjacent leader 0.00
Relative speed between leader and left 0.264 0.087 9.208
adjacent leader 0.00
Lateral gap between leader and opposing -0.093 0.142 3.428
vehicles 0.00
Right Lateral Shift Intercept -1.545 1.438 1.155 0.28
Subject vehicle size -1.714 0.432 15.74 0.00
Leader vehicle size 0.019 0.395 2.002 0.01
Lateral gap between leader and right 0.432 0.172 6.317 0.01
adjacent leader
Lateral gap between leader and left adjacent -0.871 0.181 23.14 0.00
leader
Relative speed between subject and leader -0.196 0.099 3.869 0.04
vehicles
Relative speed between leader and right 0.079 0.066 2.412 0.02
adjacent leader
Relative speed between leader and left -0.407 0.081 25.42 0.00
adjacent leader
Lateral gap between leader and opposing 0.317 0.12 6.992 0.00
vehicles
a. The reference category is: Current Path No. of observations of right shift = 101
No. of observations for current path = 126 Prediction success for right shift = 83.2%
Prediction success for current path = 84.1% No. of observations of left shift = 40
Prediction success for left shift = 60.1%

6. CONCLUSIONS

The present study focused on the analysis and modeling of lateral placement and movement of vehicles on urban
undivided roads. For this purpose, data was collected from a mid-block section of two-way urban undivided road in
Bangalore city, India. The lateral placement and separation of different types of vehicles on urban undivided roads
under mixed traffic conditions were investigated and regression models were developed to predict the lateral position

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of a subject vehicle. Multiple linear regression model was developed for predicting the lateral position of subject
vehicle and it was found that lateral position of a subject vehicle was influenced by types and speeds of subject and
opposing vehicles. Lateral movement of vehicles i.e., lateral shift was analyzed and multinomial logistic regression
model was developed to choose the path to which the vehicles shift. The following are the key conclusions arising
from this study.
 It was found that majority of the vehicles (70.9%) are preferred to travel in the middle of the road (3-7 m).
 Since lane discipline is not strictly enforced, it was found that two-wheelers and auto-rickshaws are distributed
almost over the entire width of the road because of their smaller sizes and higher manoeuverability.
 Cars are mostly distributed near the middle of the road so as to maintain higher speeds. Heavy vehicles are also
concentrated near the middle of the road so as to avoid side interferences and also due to their larger sizes and
lower manoeuverability.
 Two-wheelers, cars and auto-rickshaws adjust their lateral position when opposed. Heavy vehicles due to their
larger sizes are not much influenced by opposing vehicles and thus, lateral positions do not vary significantly
when opposed than when unopposed.
 The lateral separation of vehicles decreases with increase in subject vehicle size and increases with increase in
the speed of opposing vehicle.
 The probability of a subject vehicle to choose either left or right lateral shift increases with decrease in subject
vehicle size and increases with leader vehicle size.
 The increase in lateral gap between leader in current path and target path increases the probability of a subject
vehicle to shift either to left or right path.
 The increase in lateral gap between leader in current path and opposite vehicle increases the probability of a
subject vehicle to shift to right and decreases the probability to shift to left.

This study finds interesting applications in traffic control and management, geometric design of roads,
accident analysis, and estimation of level of service and road capacity. The study aids the traffic engineers in selecting
the target path of a subject vehicle during the lateral shifts; this decision plays an important role in developing a
microscopic traffic flow model considering the lateral movements of vehicle. The factors such as road width, road
type, driver characteristics, etc. can be considered in the models for better results. In the study of lateral movement,
only lateral shift was taken into consideration for analysis and modeling due to limited field view of study section. In
future, the other types of lateral movements such as passing and overtaking behavior of vehicles can also be studied.
In addition to that, class-wise model for lateral shifts can be also developed.

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