WEEKLY COMMODITY UPDATE

DATE –Dec 16 2019

Gold:-Gold price closed higher last week As Market seem

determined to show their disbelief that the China deal touted by

President Donald Trump will do magic. the yellow metal remained a
hedge to the 17-month trade war. risk aversion returned to markets
disappointed by the modesty of a much-hyped ‘phase-1’ trade deal
between the U.S. and China. On weekly basis Gold closed higher 1.04
% ``
on COMEX & 0.20 % lower on MCX.

Silver :-Silver prices closed higher last week supported by a still-

intact trend toward easier monetary policy across the world.
Although the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank both left
their policy stance unchanged this week, the Russian Central
Bank joined those of Brazil and Turkey in cutting its key rate in its
last meeting of the year. On weekly basis silver closed higher 2.32%
on COMEX & 1.33 % higher on MCX.

STRATEGY

Exchange Commodity Recommendation

Prices remained in a range given last week. Favored view for the week is as long as 1468/1455 holds
COMEX Gold Feb.
support we could see a move higher towards 1491/1502.

Prices remained in a range given last week. Favored view for the week is as long as 37500/37200 holds
MCX Gold Feb.
support we could see a move higher towards 38100/38300.

Prices met our targets of 17.30 given last week. Favored view for the week is as long as 16.60/16.30
COMEX Silver Mar.
holds support we could see levels of 17.40/17.60

Prices remained in a range given last week. Favored view for the week is as long as 43600/43200 holds
MCX Silver Mar.
support we could see levels of 44600/44800.

PIVOT

Exchange Commodity Close Pivot R3 R2 R1 S1 S2 S3

COMEX Gold Feb. 1480.1 1478 1522 1507 1493 1465 1450 1436
MCX Gold Feb. 37773 37769 38371
38674 37910 37470 37167 36868
COMEX Silver Mar. 17 16.92 17.54
17.89 17.06 16.65 16.30 16.03
MCX Silver Mar. 44126 44054 45926 45278 44342 43478 42830 42254
 ENERGY

`
WTI crude oil Prices closed higher last week with U.S. West Texas
Intermediate breaching the $60 per barrel resistance long eyed by oil
bulls and U.K. Brent crossing the key $65 milestone, after the Trump
administration announced a China trade deal with scant details.
OPEC, in its own monthly report this week, said it expected a small
oil supply deficit instead for next year. On weekly basis Crude closed
higher 1.08 % on NYMEX & 0.83 % higher on MCX.

Natural Gas on weekly basis closed lower 1.66 % on NYMEX & 3.1 %
lower on MCX. Amid the idea that there could possibly be warmer
temperatures in the United States between now and Christmas, but
that is somewhat of a fluid and transient influence when it comes to
price. This is because it’s only a matter of time before there is a
spike in usage this time of year, driving up demand. Currently, the
most recent Natural Gas Storage figures were -73 billion, as opposed
to the anticipated -75 billion.

STRATEGY

Exchange Commodity Recommendation

Crude oil
NYMEX Prices met our targets of 60.50 given last week. Favored view for the week is long as 58.00/57.00
Dec.
holds support we could see 60.80/62.00 levels.
Crude oil Prices remained in a range given last week. Favored view for the week is long as 4150/4060 holds
MCX Dec. support we could see 4320/4400 levels.

NYMEX Natural Gas Dec. Prices remained in a range given last week. Favored view for the week as long as 2.20/2.15 holds
support we could see levels of 2.40./2.48.
Prices remained in a range given last week. Favored view for the week is as long as 158/153 holds
MCX Natural Gas Dec.
support we could see levels of 168/174.

PIVOT

Exchange Commodity Close Pivot R3 R2 R1 S1 S2 S3

NYMEX Crude oil Dec.

59.79 59.46 63.18 61.83 60.02 58.44 57.09 56.07
MCX Crude oil Dec. 4241 4210 4462 4368 4247 4146 4052 3988
Natural Gas
NYMEX
Dec.
2.305 2.271 2.576 2.463 2.316 2.192 2.079 2.000
Natural Gas
MCX
Dec.
162.8 162.3 180 173.9 165.1 156.8 150.7 145.2

WEEKLY INVENTORY

COMMODITY 05-Dec-2019 12-Dec-2019 Change

Crude oil inventory -4.9 0.8M -5.7M

Natural Gas inventory -19B -73B -54B
 BASE METALS

Base metals complex closed on Mixed note last week As London

copper prices raced past $6,200 a tonne for the first time in seven
months in early Asian trade on Friday, set to rise for a seventh
session in eight, as Washington and Beijing moved closer to ending
their long-running trade row. The United States has reached a
"phase-one" trade deal in principle with China, a source briefed on
talks between the two nations said on Thursday, saying a
statement from the White House was expected soon. The trade row
has led to fears that demand for industrial metals will be affected,
weighing on prices. China's Shandong Fangyuan Nonferrous Metals
Group, one of the country's biggest private copper smelters, on
Thursday denied online rumours that it had filed for bankruptcy and
said operations are running normally.

On MCX weekly basis Copper & Nickel Closed higher 0.43% &
3.53% respectively , Lead , Zinc & Aluminium Closed lower 0.13% ,
0.82% & 0.23% respectively.

STRATEGY

Exchange Commodity Recommendation

Prices met our targets of 6175 given last week. Favored view for the week is as long as 6020/5930
LME Copper
holds support we could see a move higher towards 6230/6290 zone.

MCX Copper Dec. Prices almost met our targets of 446 given last week, high made was 445.40. Favored view for the
week is as long as 433/428 holds support we could see a move higher towards 445/450 zone.
Prices met our targets of 1025 given last week. Favored view for the week is as long as 990/970 holds
MCX Nickel Dec. support we could see levels of 1050/1070.

Prices remained in a range given last week. Favored view for the week is as long as 150/147 holds
MCX Lead Dec.
support we could see a move higher towards 155/157 zone.

Prices remained in a range given last week. Favored view for the week is as long as 184/186 resist we
MCX Zinc Dec.
could see a move lower towards 178/175 Zone.

Prices remained in a range with given last week. Favored view for the week is as long as 131/129
MCX Aluminum Dec.
holds support we could see a move higher towards 135/137 zone.

PIVOT

Exchange Commodity Close Pivot R3 R2 R1 S1 S2 S3

LME Copper 6143 6119
6459 6338 6170 6021 5900 5802
MCX Copper Dec .
440 440.5 454.2 449.8 442.7 435.6 431.2 426.3
Nickel Dec.
MCX 1032.6 1,010 1,133 1,084 1,027 984 935 909
Lead Dec.
MCX 152.25 152.7 156.2 155.2 153.3 151.3 150.3 148.8
Zinc Dec.
MCX 181.6 182.4 187.2 185.8 183.2 180.3 178.9 176.8
Aluminum
MCX Dec. 132.95 133.1 136.3 135.3 133.6 132.0 131.0 129.8
LME WARHOUSE INVENTORY WEEKLY CHANGE

WEEKLY LME INVENTORY

COMMODITY
06-12-2019 13-12-2019 Change

COPPER 193800 171800 -22000

ZINC 58675 56075
-2600
LEAD 67125 67325 200
ALUMINIUM 1284300 1375675 91375
NICKEL 68886 123228
54342

METALS COMMODITY REVIEW

AGRI COMMODITY REVIEW

 SOYA COMPLEX

Indian Soybean futures closed higher last week. As price

Consolidate after resent up move amid strong fundamentals.
Soybean Processors' Association (SOPA) cut its soybean
production estimated for India 83.5 lakh tonnes from 91.5 lakh
tones of its previous estimates.

Lower Crop from Argentina Providing Support at Lower levels in

global markets.

STRATEGY

Exchange Commodity Recommendation

Soya Bean. As long as 4150/4090 holds support we could see 4250/4280 levels.
NCDEX
Jan.

NCDEX RM SEED Jan. As long As 4410/4380 holds support we could see 4500/4530 levels.

NCDEX SOY OIL Jan. As long As 855/845 holds support we could see 875/885 levels.

PIVOT

Exchange Commodity Close Pivot R3 R2 R1 S1 S2 S3

Soya been
NCDEX Jan. 4208 434 4,478 4,404 4,272 4,134 4,060 3,962
RM SEED
NCDEX Jan. 4471 4458 4,612 4,555 4,481 4,418 4,361 4,321
Soy Oil
NCDEX Jan. 865.8 863.2 902.6 888.6 869.2 851.8 837.8 826.4
SPICES

Jeera

Indian Jeera futures closed lower Last week As prices consolidate

after resent pull back amid weak local demand. Prices continues to
be on firm track on long term basis on back of Quality deterioration
at turkey & Syria . As The harvesting season ends the arrivals are
declining.

STRATEGY

Exchange Commodity Recommendation

NCDEX Jeera Jan. As long as 16100/16400 resist then we could see 15500/15200 levels.

PIVOT

Exchange Commodity Close Pivot R3 R2 R1 S1 S2 S3

NCDEX Jeera.Jan.
15815 15877 16318 16192 15951 15688 15562 15373
 WEEKLY ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Date Time Event Forecast Previous

07:30 Am
DEC 16 CNY Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y 5.2% 5.2%

DEC 16 07:30 Am
CNY Industrial Production y/y 5.1% 4.7%
DEC 16 02:30 Pm
EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI 47.3 46.9
DEC 16 02:30 Pm EUR Flash Services PMI 52.0 51.9
DEC 16 03:00 Pm GBP Flash Manufacturing PMI 49.1 48.9
DEC 16 03:00 Pm GBP Flash Services PMI 49.6 49.3
DEC 16 08:15 Pm
USD Flash Manufacturing PMI 52.0 51.6
DEC 16 08:30 PM
USD NAHB Housing Market Index 70 70
DEC 17 07:00 Pm
USD Building permits 1.41M 1.46M

DEC 17 07:00 Pm
USD Housing starts 1.34 M 1.31M
DEC 17 08:30 Pm
USD JOLTS Job Openings 7.10M 7.02M
DEC 18 02:00 Pm
EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks -- --
DEC 18 03:00 Pm
GBP CPI y/y 1.5% 1.5%
DEC 18 03:30 Pm
EUR Final Core CPI y/y 1.3% 1.3%
DEC 18 09:00 Pm
USD Crude Oil Inventories 0.8M
DEC 19 03:00 Pm
GBP Retail Sales m/m 0.2% -0.1%
DEC 19 07:00 Pm
USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 8.1 10.4
DEC 19 07:00 Pm
USD Current Account -122B -128B
DEC 19 07:00 Pm
USD Unemployment Claims 225K 252K
DEC 19 08:30 Pm
USD Existing Home Sales 5.44M 5.46M
DEC 19 09:00 Pm
USD Natural Gas Storage -73B
DEC 20 03:00 Pm
GBP Final GDP q/q 0.3% 0.3%
DEC 20 07:00 Pm
USD Final GDP q/q 2.1% 2.1%
DEC 20 08:30 Pm
USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% 0.1%
DEC 20 08:30 Pm
USD Personal Spending m/m 0.4% 0.3%
DEC 20 08:30 Pm
USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 99.2 99.2
 Research Desk

PRIYANK UPADHYAY +91 22 4300 8861

(AVP-RESEARCH)

VIRAT UPADHYAY +91 22 4300 8870

(RESEARCH ANALYST)

1st Floor, Merchant Chambers, Opp. Patkar Hall, 41, New Marine Lines Mumbai 400 020, INDIA
Tel: + 91 22 3300 8800, Fax: + 91 22 3300 8899 Email: commodityresearch@ssjfinance.com

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