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AP Oil - 2H15
AP Oil - 2H15
Jan‐15
Jan‐16
Apr‐14
Jul‐14
Oct‐14
Apr‐15
Jul‐15
Oct‐15
Financials
YE Dec (S$ m) 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F
Source: Bloomberg
Revenue 78.4 85.7 82.7 85.8 89.1
EBITDA 6.0 4.3 5.0 5.3 5.6
Core PATMI 4.7 3.9 3.8 3.9 4.2
Core EPS (Scts) 2.9 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.6
Renfred TAY Core EPS growth (%) 13.5 ‐18.6 ‐0.9 1.6 8.9
Core P/E (x) 8.7 10.7 10.8 10.6 9.7
renfred.tay@kgi.com
DPS (Scts) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
+65 6236 2557 Dividend Yield (%) 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 1.6 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.8
Net Gearing (x) Net cash Net cash Net cash Net cash Net cash
P/B (x) 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7
ROE (%) 10.2 7.4 7.0 6.7 6.9
So urce: Co mpany data. KGI Fraser
Figure 1: Results comparison
FYE Dec (S$ m) 2HFY15 2HFY14 yoy % 1HFY15 hoh % 2HFY15 2HFY14 yoy % Prev % of Comments
chg chg Cum Cum chg FY15F FY15F (FY15 vs. previous FY15F)
Revenue 46.6 37.7 23.4 39.1 19.1 85.7 78.4 9.2 81.0 106% Higher than expected; higher trading rev
Operating costs (45.6) (35.8) 27.4 (36.9) 23.5 (82.5) (73.5) 12.2 (75.6) 109% Higher than expected; lower trading margins
EBITDA 1.6 2.5 (35.9) 2.7 (41.0) 4.3 6.0 (27.9) 6.3 68% Lower than expected
EBITDA margin (%) 3.5 6.6 7.0 5.1 7.7 7.8
Depn & amort. 0.6 0.5 12.4 0.5 16.0 1.1 1.1 4.8 1.0 116% Higher than expected
EBIT 1.0 2.0 (49.4) 2.2 (54.8) 3.2 4.9 (35.2) 5.3 60% Lower than expected
Interest expense ‐ (0.0) (100.0) (0.0) (100.0) (0.0) (0.0) (75.0) ‐
Int & Inv income 0.0 0.0 (22.7) 0.0 (19.0) 0.0 0.0 11.8 0.0 87%
Associcates' contrib 0.2 (0.0) 9,650.0 0.2 (1.0) 0.4 0.3 19.3 0.4 107% Higher than expected
Exceptionals ‐ 0.3 (100.0) 0.4 (100.0) 0.4 0.3 42.1 0.4
Pretax profit 1.2 2.2 (46.3) 2.8 (56.8) 4.0 5.5 (28.1) 6.1 65% Lower than expected
Tax (0.0) (0.2) (85.3) (0.2) (82.8) (0.2) (0.5) (57.9) (0.7) 33% Utilisation of tax credits
Tax rate (%) 2.7 10.1 6.9 5.7 9.7 11.3
NCI 0.5 ‐ nm ‐ nm 0.5 ‐ nm ‐
Net profit 1.6 2.0 (18.5) 2.6 (36.6) 4.2 5.0 (15.5) 5.4 78% Lower than expected
Core profit 1.6 1.8 (6.5) 2.2 (26.0) 3.9 4.7 (18.6) 5.1 76% Lower than expected
Core EPS (S cts) 1.0 1.1 (6.5) 1.3 (26.0) 2.3 2.9 (18.6) 3.1 76% Lower than expected
Diluted core EPS (S cts) 1.0 1.1 (6.5) 1.3 (26.0) 2.3 2.9 (18.6) 3.1 76% Lower than expected
Source: Company data, KGI Fraser
February 24, 2016 $ 222
2
Summary of Financials
YE 31 Dec
INCOME STATEMENT (S$ m) 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F
Revenue 78.4 85.7 82.7 85.8 89.1
Cost of sales (64.7) (72.1) (68.5) (71.1) (73.7)
Gross profit 13.7 13.6 14.2 14.8 15.4
SG&A (8.8) (10.4) (10.4) (10.7) (11.0)
Others 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Finance costs/income 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Share of associate results 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5
XO items ‐ 0.4 ‐ ‐ ‐
Profit before tax 5.3 4.0 4.2 4.6 5.0
Income tax expense (0.5) (0.2) (0.4) (0.7) (0.8)
Profit from discontinued operations 0.3 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
Non‐controlling interests ‐ 0.5 ‐ ‐ ‐
Profit after tax and NCI 5.0 4.2 3.8 3.9 4.2
February 24, 2016 $ 333
3
KEY RATIOS 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F
Profitability (%)
Gross Margin 17.5 15.9 17.1 17.2 17.3
EBITDA Margin 7.7 5.1 6.0 6.1 6.3
Core net Margin 6.0 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.7
ROE 10.2 7.4 7.0 6.7 6.9
ROA 9.0 6.7 6.0 5.8 6.0
ROIC 39.6 16.7 24.4 24.1 25.8
Growth (%)
Revenue 21.7 9.2 (3.5) 3.8 3.8
EBITDA 8.9 (27.9) 14.8 5.6 6.1
Core net profit 13.5 (18.6) (0.9) 1.6 8.9
EPS 13.5 (18.6) (0.9) 1.6 8.9
February 24, 2016 $ 444
4
KGI’s Ra ngs Ra ng Defini on
KGI Fraser Research’s recommenda ons are based on an Absolute Return ra ng system.
BUY >10% total return over the next 12 months
HOLD ‐10% to +10% total return over the next 12 months
SELL <‐10% total return over the next 12 months
February 24, 2016 $