Professional Documents
Culture Documents
17:25
URBAN
RISE
RURAL
ENTERP
HOME
& REMO
TE
VIRTUAL
IZATIO
N
DOCUMENT
170.07.02
HetNet market drivers 2016-20
January 2016
We are not a standards organization but partner with organizations that inform
and determine standards development. We are a carrier-led organization. This
means our operator members establish requirements that drive the activities
and outputs of our technical groups.
Today our members are driving solutions that include small cell/Wi-Fi
integration, SON evolution, virtualization of the small cell layer, driving mass
adoption via multi-operator neutral host, ensuring a common approach to
service APIs to drive commercialisation and the integration of small cells into
5G standards evolution.
The Small Cell Forum Release Program has now established business cases and
market drivers for all the main use cases. This document is part of
Release 7: HetNet and SON.
All content in this document including links and references are for informational
purposes only and is provided “as is” with no warranties whatsoever including
any warranty of merchantability, fitness for any particular purpose, or any
warranty otherwise arising out of any proposal, specification, or sample.
If you would like more information about Small Cell Forum or would
like to be included on our mailing list, please contact:
Email info@smallcellforum.org
Demands on the network are increasing all the time as operators look well beyond
their commercial roots. Their challenge for 2020, if they are to reap healthy profits
from their network investments, is to undergo digital transformation, which involves
branching out from the homogeneous business model, as well as the homogeneous
networks, of the past. They will become IT platforms, cloud providers, wholesalers and
vertical market specialists as well as MNOs, and will be handling a huge diversity of
devices with different demands on the network. All this will require dramatic change to
their processes, partnerships, management systems and, of course, their networks.
The Small Cell Forum now defines the HetNet as a ‘multi-x environment – multi-
technology, multi-domain, multi-spectrum, multi-operator and multi-vendor. It must
be able to automate the reconfiguration of its operation to deliver assured service
quality across the entire network, and flexible enough to accommodate changing user
needs, business goals and subscriber behaviours.’
According to the survey, the key drivers for investing in these new HetNets (and in
time, 5G), will expand between 2016 and 2020. For the short term (2016-2018), the
use cases which were most commonly cited by the respondents are dominated by the
enterprise (a top three priority for 36%). This was followed by various use cases
driven by consumer video, including the rise of multiscreen viewing and multi-play
bundles.
By 2020, the use cases for the HetNet are expected to be more diverse and driving
brand new revenue streams. For incremental revenues, there will be a shift to
connected ‘things’ as well as people, to wholesale models and to a new generation of
video-based services and user experiences.
2016 2020
Percentage of MNOs placing each HetNet use case into their top three in terms of potential to
deliver additional revenue within 12 months of deployment.
Among some of the most prominent specific application drivers, by environment, are:
2016-2018 2020
Consumer Multiplay and multiscreen Video-driven user experiences
video e.g., virtual reality gaming
Mobile multicast services
Enterprise High quality voice and data for IoT and Industrial Internet
mobile-first New mobile cloud services for
VoLTE and ViLTE productivity and customers
MEC applications e.g., local Big data analytics
PBX integration On-demand capacity for
enterprises
Urban and rural (outdoor) Dense targeted capacity esp Fully integrated smart
for video transport and city services
Full coverage for remote New interfaces to urban
communities and M2M services e.g., virtual reality
Smart city applications Big data analytics
Temporary or moving D2D applications
networks e.g., public safety
Tables
Table 3–1 Operator HetNet requirements, and key enablers, 2008-20 .................. 8
Table 4–1 Key technology enablers which will enable the HetNet to deliver
operators’ primary network goals. ....................................................11
Table 5–1 Benefits of SON for small cell HetNets. Source: Small Cell Forum .........13
Figures
Figure 1–1 The HetNet cycle: New business demands drive new network
capabilities, which in turn enable new services and revenue streams. .... 1
Figure 1–2 The increasingly complicated HetNet access network ........................... 2
Figure 1–3 The Small Cell Forum’s HetNet2020 vision ......................................... 3
Figure 2–1 Importance of a HetNet strategy to achieving MNOs’ business
objectives by 2020, and to driving new revenues. ............................... 4
Figure 2–2 Technologies which underpin the HetNet. ........................................... 5
Figure 2–3 Elements considered essential to a HetNet, now and by 2020. .............. 6
Figure 3–1 Key operator requirements by importance to the business case, now
and anticipated in 2020. Importance of HetNet and SON to deliver
these requirements. .......................................................................10
Figure 4–1 Percentage of MNOs which expect to deploy key technology enablers
of HetNet, by 2016 and by 2020 ......................................................12
Figure 5–1 Top four reasons to deploy small cell and HetNet SON. .......................14
Figure 5–2 Percentage of small cells deployed at high density, indicating the
point at which SON becomes essential to the business case. ...............15
Figure 5–3 Percentage of the small cell installed base which is SON-enabled, by
density .........................................................................................17
Figure 5–4 Number of MNOs out of 124 initiating SON projects (in-house or
outsourced) between 2014 and 2019, and the capex and services
budget. On average, MNOs will initiate two new SON projects in this
period. .........................................................................................18
Figure 5–5 Percentage of small cells in a particular band configuration, which are
actively SON-enabled. ....................................................................19
The idea of a wireless heterogeneous network (HetNet) may not have changed in its
essence – it still involves the combination of several types of network technology to
deliver high quality wireless services, high levels of capacity and maximum efficiency
of operational and deployment costs. However, its criticality in mobile network
operators’ (MNOs) strategic planning has increased dramatically as carriers come
under ever-intensifying business pressures. Two-thirds of Tier 1 and 2 MNOs,
surveyed in the first quarter of 2016, say that a HetNet will be ‘critical’ or ‘very
important’ to their commercial success between now and 2020 [2], while the figure
rises to 72% when brand new revenue models are considered.
To support this rising burden of responsibility for the MNOs’ future prosperity, the
actual shape of the HetNet is having to change too. The technologies which operators
include in their definition of HetNet have expanded considerably since 2010, when
Ericsson wrote ‘Heterogeneous network involves a mix of radio technologies and cell
types working together seamlessly’ [3]. That statement remains true, but operators
are now planning HetNets which also harness multiple technologies in the software
layers, and use emerging methods such as SON (self-optimizing networks) and
virtualization to pull all the elements together in a seamless whole.
So the first HetNets, which are being deployed now, will lay the foundations of very
different HetNets by 2020, in response to a widening range of market drivers and
business models. The common factor will be the ever-intensifying push to increase the
network’s capacity and efficiency, combined with a rising focus on diversity, as MNOs
look for a wider variety of revenue streams, some of them requiring dissimilar network
behaviors. And the common thread is that most operators believe they have
inadequate spectrum to support those new revenues, unless they adopt a radically
different architecture.
New services
and Rising traffic
revenues
Digitalization
Higher
New network
capacity and
capabilities
efficiency
Multilayered
network,
automation
Figure 1–1 The HetNet cycle: New business demands drive new network capabilities, which
in turn enable new services and revenue streams.
This paper will examine the key market drivers behind that cyclical process – the
business cases which are driving HetNet deployments now, and those which will be
prominent around 2020, as operators look towards 5G.
These will underpin the evolution of the HetNet architecture, both to enhance current
3G/4G systems to support both massive broadband and IoT, but also to future-proof
those deployments and provide a smooth migration to 5G when that is finalized. In
network terms, this will see a transformation from the RAN-oriented visions of 2010
(Figure 1-2) to the multi-layered, business-driven vision unveiled by the Small Cell
Forum in February 2016 (Figure 1-3).
In 2010, the emerging drivers for a HetNet were relatively simple in business terms.
Operators needed to keep up with the relentless rise in demand for mobile data,
including video, coupled with an equally relentless pressure on the price customers
would pay per megabyte. That required a new approach to network economics, and
architectures that could deliver massive capacity in a targeted, repeatable and
scalable manner in order to maximise cost efficiency.
Demands on the network are increasing all the time as operators look well beyond
their commercial roots. Their challenge for 2020, if they are to reap healthy profits
from their network investments, is to undergo digital transformation, which involves
branching out from the homogeneous consumer focused business model, as well as
the homogeneous networks, of the past. They will become IT platforms, cloud
providers, wholesalers and vertical market specialists as well as MNOs, and will be
handling a huge diversity of devices with different demands on the network. All this
will require dramatic change to their processes, partnerships, management systems
and, of course, their networks.
45
40
35
30
% of MNOs
25
20
15
10
0
Critical Very important Important Fairly important Unimportant
Figure 2–1 Importance of a HetNet strategy to achieving MNOs’ business objectives by 2020,
and to driving new revenues.
So the availability of dense small cell networks is starting to enable new business
cases in areas like mobile enterprise, context-aware services and the Internet of
Things (IoT). In turn, as those markets develop, they will drive new requirements and
technologies into the next wave of the HetNet.
That means the HetNet is no longer just about multiple layers of macro and small
cells, or even about seamless Wi-Fi/cellular, but about a wide range of technologies at
all layers of the network stack.
This is clear from the definitions of HetNet, as set out by the Small Cell Forum’s
working groups on HetNet and SON [SCF172]. This includes a wide variety of radio
elements and spectrum options, as summarized in Figure 2-2, but also includes other
emerging technologies like mobile edge computing, device-to-device communications,
virtualized RANs and backhaul networks.
The operator survey also reflects the rising variety of technologies which will make up
the HetNet between 2016 and 2020 (and beyond). The respondents have varying
interpretations of HetNet, and place different weight on each element according to
their particular business case, but overall, they see the platform as one that goes well
beyond the access layer, and must be planned and deployed accordingly (see Figure
2-3).
96 96
100 92 94 90
86
82 80
76
80
% of MNOs
70
60
48
40
36
40
18
20 12 10
2016 2020
These responses indicate the evolving nature of the HetNet, with emerging approaches
like virtualization, SON, SDN orchestration and mobile edge computing (MEC)
becoming more important in the later part of the decade, as standards mature and
start to drive new use cases. In this way, business goals and technology evolution will
continue to drive one another in parallel, well into the 5G era.
However, in an environment of rapid change, it is critical that there are some constant
foundations, enabling operators to future-proof their deployments and to support new
use cases, without fundamental architecture changes. These foundation stones are the
heart of the work of the Small Cell Forum’s HetNet and SON work programs. Since
small cells are fundamental to dense, flexible HetNets in any definition, the Forum is
ideally placed to drive the foundations of the HetNet, based on operator requirements,
and feeding into standards bodies and the broader mobile ecosystem.
These foundations include elements which underpin first generation HetNets and will
continue to do so in the 2020s:
• Wide variety of cell sizes and access point form factors from macrocells to
tiny embedded radios.
• Seamless use of many spectrum bands – TDD and FDD, licensed, shared and
unlicensed - with hand-off and aggregation to maximize flexibility and overall
capacity.
• Integration of different architectures including cellular small cells, DAS, Wi-Fi,
vRAN.
• High levels of automation via SON and orchestration.
• The new economics and flexible resource management of virtualization.
• Rising importance of IT/cloud platforms and APIs to provide an efficient and
open approach to service delivery.
• Ever-increasing need for capacity which will drive rising base station density
• Drive towards truly ubiquitous coverage.
• Rising expectations of QoS and QoE.
But there will be diversification in the use cases for these dense, ubiquitous networks.
In particular, capabilities which are originally implemented to support consumer data
and people-driven applications will increasingly be harnessed to target less familiar
sectors – mobile enterprise, IoT, the Industrial Internet. And the range of services
which can be offered to those markets – many of which have mainly used wireline or
private networks before, or been unconnected – will be enhanced by further
enrichment of the HetNet, for instance as it evolves to become a full IT environment
via developments in the cloud and MEC.
Table 3—1 summarizes the first three generations of HetNet drivers, and maps the
key technology enablers, outlined in the previous chapter, to those broad drivers. The
evolution will continue in the 2020s, making it essential that the HetNets which are
deployed now are standards-based but flexible, and capable of embracing new
technologies and use cases in future as these emerge.
Based on input from Forum member operators and the HetNet and SON work program
champions, and the results of the Rethink study, it is clear that the use case drivers
for HetNet and SON deployment are already becoming more diverse and complex.
However, a generic set of requirements underpins nearly all those specific use cases
and these are the core drivers of investment in HetNet.
According to the operator survey, the most important of these (see Figure 3-1) are:
According to the operators, these 10 factors will be critical to deliver a new generation
of services and revenues and to support new partners and customers. Most
importantly, they are sufficiently generic to support use cases which have not yet
been defined or even imagined. In all cases, these objectives can be helped by
deploying elements of HetNet; in some cases, HetNet is the only way to deliver them.
In the survey, respondents were first asked for an unprompted list of key drivers to
deploy a HetNet. They were then asked to rank the 10 drivers which emerged most
commonly, on a scale of 1 to 10 (10 being most important to their current and future
business strategy). For 2016, the top priorities are still to increase coverage and
capacity to unprecedented levels in order to enhance their competitiveness and
quality, mainly in conventional services like consumer data or video; and to reduce the
total cost of delivering those data services. However, there is already a perceived need
to make more flexible use of different spectrum and technology types in order to
improve the overall economic and performance outcomes.
By 2020, operators expect capacity, coverage and cost still to be key drivers of HetNet
investment, but many other factors will achieve equal importance to the increasingly
complex business plan. Among these, intelligent use of different types of spectrum,
including licence-exempt, will match the need for ultra-dense capacity as a HetNet
driver (both average a rating of 9.4 by 2020), indicating the rising challenge for MNOs
to match their capacity needs with their access to airwaves.
Also achieving high average ratings in 2020 plans are networks which will support
flexibility in the business model, including neutral host and network sharing options;
optimization for IoT/M2M alongside data; massive scalability through automation; and
support for IT cloud services, both for end users and for big data purposes.
Figure 3–1 Key operator requirements by importance to the business case, now and
anticipated in 2020. Importance of HetNet and SON to deliver these
requirements.
The MNO respondents to the Rethink survey were also asked to rate the importance of
a HetNet to delivering these commercial goals. While they believed some of the goals
could be achieved, at least in part, by other means, especially in the early years, by
2020 a HetNet was considered to be critical to most of them. With regard to ultra-
dense capacity and the related issue of automation/scalability, a HetNet’s importance
was rated over 9 out of 10 on average.
Table 4—1 indicates the top technology enablers for these business requirements, as
rated by the operators. Nearly all these enablers form part of the Forum’s updated
HetNet definitions and roadmap.
Awareness of the gulf between currently installed mobile networks, and the
technologies needed to achieve their 2020 business goals, will drive a wave of
investment in many of the core elements of the modern HetNet, over the coming few
years (see Figure 4-1). The most immediate areas of investment will be those
In particular, small cells fall into this category, especially in the non-residential
categories, which will enjoy significant growth for the rest of the decade. A total of
45% of MNOs expect to invest in this area in 2016, a figure which will rise to 84% by
2020 according to operators’ current expectations.
100
90
80
70
% of MNOs
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2016 2020
Figure 4–1 Percentage of MNOs which expect to deploy key technology enablers of HetNet,
by 2016 and by 2020
As other recent studies have indicated, the enterprise sector will be the most
important growth driver for small cells, because this is the area where the most
immediate HetNet-driven growth models are perceived (see 6b).
Another area of HetNet focus in the short term will be the use of licence-exempt
spectrum, integrated intelligently with licensed-band networks, whether harnessing
Wi-Fi or, from late 2016, LTE in the 5 GHz band.
Once the cornerstones of multiple layers of cells and spectrum have been laid, the
other key enablers will start to be built alongside. SON and optimized IoT connections
will experience particularly sharp growth in adoption, the former increasingly essential
as networks become denser, the latter important to a key area of revenue
diversification. Multi-operator technologies like MOCN and MORAN will secure an
enhanced role as MNOs look for a more multi-faceted delivery model, and the software
elements will also move to the heart of HetNet planning with open APIs and MEC
creating a rich IT services platform, and virtualization bringing new efficiencies and
flexibility to the RAN itself and to network management and orchestration.
Self-organizing network (SON) technology has shifted from being focused mainly on
housekeeping functions, notably Automatic Neighbor Relations (ANR), to being an
essential part of wider strategies to optimize the RAN. SON will be an essential enabler
of dense HetNets, because it will be impractical to optimize large numbers of small
access points – whether metrocells, Wi-Fi APs, distributed radios or DAS antennas -
without a considerable degree of automation and flexibility. The rise of vRAN will
intensify this interest among carriers, and give rise to new categories such as Cloud
SON.
The latter will aim to align the SON domain with the move towards centralizing and
virtualizing network intelligence, turning it into a full network operating system, which
can predict cause and effect, and coordinate responses, dynamically. The evolution of
the SON, and broader management and orchestration, aspects of the HetNet are set
out in full in the Small Cell Forum’s new Integrated HetNet Architecture Framework. 1
This describes how SON is central to enabling emerging dense HetNets – what the
Forum defines as ‘multi-x’ – “multi-technology, multi-domain, multi-spectrum, multi-
operator and multi-vendor. It must be able to automate the reconfiguration of its
operation to deliver assured service quality across the entire network, and flexible
enough to accommodate changing user needs, business goals and subscriber
behaviors.”
This indicates how skilful optimization can help achieve the three most important
objectives of a mobile network deployment:
1
Small Cell Forum, SCF172 Integrated HetNet Architecture Framework, May 2016,
These overall drivers are reflected in the results of a survey of over 120 MNOs and
subsidiaries, conducted in April 2016 by Rethink Technology Research. Of these, 43
were already deploying SON in some area of their network. Respondents were asked
to name all their drivers to deploy SON by 2020. Of the 10 which were most
commonly cited, they were asked to select their top four in terms of business case
impact (see Figure 5-1).
Opex reduction was placed in the top four by 79% of the operators, followed by
improvement of quality of experience for the customer (58%) and reducing the cost of
scaling up to dense high capacity networks (54%). Other important drivers included
the ability to integrate new spectrum bands, especially unlicensed, as Wi-Fi and LTE in
unlicensed bands become an integral part of the HetNet. Lower time to deploy dense
networks, support for multivendor HetNets and the ability to target capacity and
network resources where they are needed were also important factors.
23 Reduce opex
23 79 Improve customer QoE
28 Reduce cost of high capacity
Densify the network efficiently
29 Integrate unlicensed spectrum
Figure 5–1 Top four reasons to deploy small cell and HetNet SON.
Figure 5–2 provides a top level indicator of when SON is becoming critical to the
industry as a whole, though the density and approach of different operators to their
small cell build-outs will vary widely. Many MNOs will continue to adopt an in-fill
approach, and will not need densification for some years to come if their macro
networks are largely addressing their capacity needs. But many others are already
embarking on density programs. We believe that availability of a broad range of SON
capabilities (see below for examples) will be desirable for the industry this year, as
dense or hyper-dense deployments will already account for almost 40% of cells by the
end of 2016. It is worth noting, however, that these are concentrated in the hands of
a fairly small number of large-scale system integrators, some of whom are using their
own inhouse tools and methods. By 2017, the availability of a wide range of SON
capabilities will have become critical because there will be a larger number of
operators moving towards density, and dense or hyperdense deployments will account
for the largest number of small cells in that year (54%). Many of these operators will
only activate their plans if they can easily access SON tools.
100
Full SON Full SON
90
desirable essentia
80
% of cells deployed
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Moderate or non-dense
Figure 5–2 Percentage of small cells deployed at high density, indicating the point at which
SON becomes essential to the business case.
2
Rethink Technology Research, RAN Service, ‘SON trends and deployments 2014-2020’, May 2016,
www.rethinkresearch.biz
3
Ibid
In the same study, MNOs were asked to name three challenges which might cause
them to postpone wide-scale HetNet roll-out for at least 12 months. Confidence they
could manage and optimize a large, complex network with thousands of elements and
multivendor kit emerged as the most important, named as a top three issue by 64%
of respondents, followed by total cost of ownership, and the ability to scale up to huge
numbers of cells, particularly in terms of logistics (sites, deployment process,
planning).
These issues of network configuration and management are partly addressed by SON
and this can have a direct impact on TCO too. By implementing SON and optimization
to the best degree considered possible, the opex bill for a HetNet can be cut by 22%
for macrocell deployments and 45% for small cells, according to a range of
calculations. 4
The survey shows that, according to MNOs’ deployment assumptions, adoption of SON
will be rapid in dense and hyperdense networks of over 75 cells per square kilometer
(see Figure 5–3). In hyperdense networks, typically indoors in areas like sports
venues, active SON 5 penetration will top 90% from the start of deployment (a few
pioneering projects from 2015 at this density). By 2020, the figure will be 99% and a
far wider range of SON functions will be in place, moving beyond table stakes like
ANR.
In less dense networks, activation of SON will be slower because it will be less urgent,
though in many cases, especially where the small cells have challenges in interworking
with the macro and with Wi-Fi, SON will be valuable even without high density. By
2018, 40% of the installed base of medium density cells will be managed by SON, and
by 2020, more than 80% of the base, even at low density, will have SON capabilities
as early generation systems are phased out, and SON becomes a default option for
new deployments.
4
Qualcomm, Rethink, Amdocs
5
Penetration of SON which is being actively use – i.e., as opposed to SON-enabled Aps, where the SON is
present but not actively used by the MNO (mainly D-SON)
100
% of cells SON-enabled
80
60
40
20
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Figure 5–3 Percentage of the small cell installed base which is SON-enabled, by density
Some key trends in SON will make it increasingly important as an enabler of new
HetNet use cases, as detailed in the Integrated HetNet Architecture Framework (see
above). These include:
• Greater integration with OSS and FCAPS layers, to obtain richer network data
• Greater integration with analytics and big data systems
• Application awareness to enhance the focus on user experience and
personalization
• Implementation within a software-defined network
• Extension to new types of networks, including Wi-Fi and backhaul.
We will see the technology becoming more integrated within an overall network
software platform that allows numerous functions to exchange information and so
provide richer sources of data for optimization. This will increasingly be in the cloud.
The operators which have advanced plans to deploy SON, to enable dense small cell
networks and so to transform the economics of their 4G roll-outs, are as diverse as SK
Telecom in South Korea, Sprint in the US and Vodafone India. In India, for instance,
where the pressure to deploy mobile networks economically is particularly high, the
large MNOs are enthusiastic adopters of SON. Bharti Airtel is deploying the technology
for new and some legacy networks in city centers, and Vodafone has implemented
Cisco SON across one-third of its cells already. Reliance Jio’s Award hybrid SON
architecture is deployed across the true Jio HetNet platform in India.
Many MNOs see the HetNet as a way to mix and match their suppliers as well as their
spectrum and base station platforms. SON platforms which can manage hardware
from many vendors, and interoperate with one another, are critical enablers for
densification and future 5G architectures, and so are the focus of activity by several
industry bodies such as the Small Cell Forum and the NGMN Alliance.
With a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% between 2014 and 2020, SON’s
capex growth will be twice that of the full RAN software category. In Rethink’s survey
of 124 MNOs, 95% intended to implement some form of SON by 2020. Between them,
a total of 265 new SON projects would be initiated during the period, totalling a spend
of $10.6bn on software and services over the six years.
2,000 60
1,800
50
1,600
1,400
40
No of MNOs
1,200
$m
1,000 30
800
20
600
400
10
200
0 0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Figure 5–4 Number of MNOs out of 124 initiating SON projects (in-house or outsourced)
between 2014 and 2019, and the capex and services budget. On average, MNOs
will initiate two new SON projects in this period.
The survey highlights some other key trends in SON deployment in dense multi-x
networks. One is that SON becomes more essential when operators are deploying cells
in multiple spectrum bands and in a separate layer from the macro. By 2020, over
three-quarters of small cells will be deployed in their own band, and about one-third of
those will be in unlicensed spectrum (excluding Wi-Fi). And 99% of those cells will be
actively SON-enabled (Figure 5–5).
99
100
90
76 77
% of small cells
80 74
60 54
50
39
40
23
18
20 14
11
7 8
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Figure 5–5 Percentage of small cells in a particular band configuration, which are actively
SON-enabled.
The architectures of SON have been evolving too. Distributed-SON capabilities are
embedded in small cells and are a key factor in vendor differentiation, though they are
not always actively used by the operator, or integrated with other systems such as
OSS. Those D-SON features will remain a standard element of small cells, except in
the case of the very stripped-down vRAN end points of the future, which could be
organized and optimized entirely from the gateway or server.
Meanwhile there has been a significant trend for MNOs to adopt centralized SON
platforms, often to work alongside D-SON, in order to support a greater range and
complexity of functions. C-SON will also be an important element of the MNO strategy
to start to treat a large number of cells as a unified entity, balancing and reallocating
loads and resources around the network flexibly in order to maximize efficiency and
performance.
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
,000 sites
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Figure 5–6 Installed base of SON-managed cell sites (macro and small) by SON architecture
As outlined above, the SON functions which are in active use will expand. The 3GPP
and NGMN Alliance list a large number of these functions, but in reality, most MNOs
are supporting very few of them in early projects. Of the MNOs surveyed which were
already deploying small cell SON, the most commonly supported functions were
interference reduction, coverage and capacity optimization (CCO) and ANR. Of course,
these functions will remain essential to all SON projects, but they will become default
options.
When the MNOs which are deploying or planning SON by 2020 were asked which
functions would be most important to their HetNet business case, interference
reduction and CCO were still placed in the top five by almost 60% of respondents, but
other functions like handover optimization, load balancing and plug-and-play were
starting to take a more strategic position in the network plan (Figure 5–7). In
addition, cell outage detection (CoD) and cell outage compensation (CoC) are also
starting to be seen as important functions.
Figure 5–7 Most important SON functions by 2020, by % of MNOs which are actively
deploying or planning SON. Sample: 120 MNOs or subsidiaries, 43 of which are
actively supporting SON. Operators were asked for all their most important use
cases, then of the 11 which were cited most commonly, they were asked to rank
their top five in terms of the network business case.
The increasingly diverse range of functions which SON will enable, as the network
becomes denser and covers a wider variety of spectrum bands and cell types, points
towards 5G. The Small Cell Forum’s HetNet 2020 roadmap and work program sets out
an evolution to 5G via densification and virtualization, and in that process, SON will be
one of the most essential enablers.
The preceding chapter indicates that mobile operators have a clear vision of what their
networks will need to support, in order to deliver on their business plans, and that
many of these requirements are addressed by HetNet technologies. However, the
business case may not be sufficiently attractive if these new-look dense, flexible and
automated networks merely enhance existing use cases and revenue streams, by
adding a new level of capacity and efficiency. To justify the investment and ensure
operator growth, they must also support new types of business.
According to the survey, the key drivers in terms of potential new revenue and market
share change and expand between 2016 and 2020. The respondents were asked to list
important use cases which would be enabled or enhanced by a HetNet. From the 10
which were cited most often, they were then asked to select their top three, in terms
of their ability to deliver incremental revenue, for the short term (2016-18) and
anticipated for 2020.
A clear set of use cases emerged with short term potential to enhance the MNO’s
business right now, while others are expected to be having a measurable positive
impact by 2020, driven by new user requirements and enabled by new HetNet
capabilities (see Figure 6-1).
For the short term, the use cases for HetNets are dominated by the enterprise, both
voice (still a ‘killer app’ in this environment as many organizations go mobile-first) and
data. Achieving a more strategic role in enterprises through improved quality of
service, and layering new added value revenue generators on top of that, is a key goal
for many MNOs, and 36% placed this in their top three priorities for HetNet
deployment in 2016-2018.
This was followed by various use cases driven by consumer video, including the rise of
multiscreen viewing (video delivered with the same user interface to mobile, TV, PC
and car screens); and multiplay bundles (broadband, TV, mobile and voice, and
sometimes other options such as smart home).
2016 2020
Figure 6–1 % of MNOs placing each HetNet use case into their top three in terms of potential
to deliver additional revenue within 12 months of deployment
While the near term business models may be about enhancing revenues from
conventional services – enterprise voice/data, video, urban and rural access – the
vision for 2020 sees a diversification of the use cases that can be supported by a more
sophisticated, software-driven HetNet. While consumer or enterprise data will remain
the bedrock of most operators’ revenues well into the next decade, in terms of brand
new revenues, there is a shift to connected ‘things’ as well as people, to wholesale
models and to a new generation of video-based services and user experiences.
Consumer
The residential market already has a substantial base of small cells on which new
services can be built in future, and many operator deployments include early HetNet
elements such as integrated cellular and Wi-Fi connectivity, and self-configuring user
equipment. The most significant driver for HetNet expansion in the home market is
video and multiplay, but increasingly video – and other key consumer services driving
HetNet usage, like social media and augmented reality – are consumed seamlessly
within the home and on the move.
Video is the most bandwidth-hungry form of mobile traffic and the fastest growing
(see Figure 6-2). Not only does it require increasing capacity and QoS, but the
business models behind video content are evolving.
Many operators are developing multiplay bundles which usually combine wireline and
mobile access but may also be wireless-only. These have a positive effect on market
share and churn but require high capacity within the home. These multiplay bundles
will start to include IoT and cloud service options, such as home security monitoring
and photo storage, to increase the operator’s share of the household’s digital
spending.
Meanwhile, multiscreen services are also an important way to enhance the video case,
delivering video and applications, with the same user interface, to many screens such
as smartphones, TVs, tablets and in-car systems.
Both these approaches are seen as helping to improve the business case for video,
which can otherwise be regarded merely as a drain on the network’s capacity, since
they add elements such as personalization and optimized QoS to look beyond the ‘best
effort YouTube’ model. But this requires HetNet capabilities such as targeted capacity,
and personalization, enabled by small cells with presence awareness; as well as
efficient use of licensed and unlicensed spectrum to optimize the cost efficiency and
QoE.
The more services and screens are involved, the more the deployment will require
dense capacity throughout the home, presence awareness to trigger certain actions
(turning off the alarms when a householder enters, perhaps), plus seamless hand-off
to the macro network when the user moves outside or to the car. These usage
patterns will require intelligence to be placed close to the user to optimize QoS for
voice and video; to support context awareness and personalization; and to turn the in-
home network into an IT platform to deliver new services and added-value
applications.
Enterprise
The enterprise is the fastest growing segment for the deployment of small cell
HetNets. According to Q1-2016 figures from Mobile Experts [6], non-residential small
cells, mainly enterprise, accounted for two-thirds of 2015’s $1bn revenue figure, and
40% of unit shipments in the fourth quarter. Shipments are forecast to rise by 270 per
cent in the enterprise segment in 2016, from about 400,000 in 2015, and the sector
will deliver $6 billion in equipment revenues in 2020.
Those forecasts reflect the increasing significance of high quality mobile voice and
data to all kinds of businesses, and that will provide an opportunity for MNOs to
enhance their strategic role in this sector by enabling business-critical in-building
networks and then delivering high quality services, such as VoLTE-based rich
communications, on top.
In a survey of over 500 enterprises worldwide, conducted by Nemertes for the Small
Cell Forum in the fourth quarter of 2015 [7], it emerged that 14% had already
deployed some small cells, while a further 46% expected to do so within two years,
and 23% were evaluating them. Overwhelmingly the most important reason for
enterprise interest in small cells was poor in-building coverage, whether for employees
or, in a public-facing enterprise like a retail mall, for customers and visitors. Almost
94% said that the quality of in-building cellular performance affected their business,
42% very seriously.
Initially, the operators see the enterprise opportunity lying mainly in supporting
business-class QoS in voice and data, which is almost impossible to achieve, in most
environments, without indoor small cells.
As the enterprise case broadens, other HetNet technologies will take a central enabling
role, including licence-exempt spectrum for intelligent access; MEC for new cloud
services and for offloading functions like PBX integration to the local network;
virtualization gateways to improve the planning and economics of a large enterprise
small cell network. Towards 2020, enterprise use cases will increasingly include IoT
and Industrial Internet services such as smart factory, as well as neutral host
systems, as seen in Figure 6-3, which compares the drivers for deploying an
enterprise HetNet to those for the industry as a whole. In the enterprise space, indoor
services, an IT applications platform, the IoT and virtualization are significantly bigger
drivers than they are for the MNO model overall.
% placing in top 3
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Global Enterprise
Figure 6–3 Most important drivers to deploy enterprise HetNet, compared to those for the
whole industry.
The more challenging the indoor environment, the more critical a dense HetNet will
become, as seen in this Small Cell Forum case study of a deployment in a stadium in
Beijing: http://www.smallcellforum.org/site/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Huawei-
BeijingWorkersStadium.pdf
Another important emerging trend in enterprise HetNet is support for wholesale and
on-demand services. In this sector, MNOs often need to work with specialized
integrators, cloud services providers and vertical market players, creating a more
complex value chain than in consumer and urban segments. It will be important for
MNOs to be able to support many types of services and partners flexibly on their
HetNets.
When strong coverage and capacity are achieved, the operators will look to generate
additional revenue streams on top of that foundation. In the survey, the most
• Smart city/M2M
• Smart transport
• Citizen access
• Public safety
• Remote working
• Digital divide
Figure 6–4 A HetNet example: Reliance Jio’s JioSON, designed to deliver new user
experiences despite a challenging spectrum situation
Two case studies which highlight the ability of a flexible HetNet to improve urban and
rural services are included in the Small Cell Forum’s growing database of deployment
stories. The first shows Softbank trialling virtualized small cells and nFAPI in a densely
populated Tokyo street [9] while the second, also in Japan, focuses on bringing
services to a remote ski resort [10].
Two case studies which highlight the ability of a flexible HetNet to improve urban and
rural services are included in the Small Cell Forum’s growing database of deployment
stories. The first shows Softbank trialling virtualized small cells and nFAPI in a densely
populated Tokyo street, while the second, also in Japan, focuses on bringing services
to a remote ski resort.
In the latter model, the wholesaler may be the MNO itself, or a third party. The
resulting ‘network as a service’ platform would increasingly be hosted in the cloud,
allocating bandwidth flexibly and on-demand between different service providers, and
between different technologies such as cellular metrocells and Wi-Fi.
In 2013, 92% of small cells were deployed by the same operator which controlled the
macro network, and interworking with the macro layer (see Figure 6-5). Only 4% were
interworking with a third party macro, and similar number were completely standalone
hotspots. By 2020 the picture will be very different, with 25% of installed small cells
interworking with a third party MNO network, and 45% with a virtualized layer such as
a cloud-hosted NWaaS platform.
No of cells 20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Standalone
Interworking with virtualized layer
Figure 6–6 Small cell installed base by service provider ownership 2013-20
While operators have a clear view of the potential of HetNets of various kinds to
address their key business drivers, there are, of course, challenges to achieving their
goals. As well as defining foundation stones for current and future HetNets, the Small
Cell Forum also aims to address barriers to deployment in order to boost operator
confidence and accelerate adoption.
As outlined by the Forum’s HetNet and SON work programs, the most important
challenges to address are:
Multi-vendor interoperability
HetNet SON parameter coordination for interoperability and deployment cost reduction
for both C-SON and D-SON is still maturing, some difficult issues remain to be solved
and some interfaces implementations are fragmented.
SON evolution
SON features are evolving with each 3GPP release and SON API must evolve and
adapt as SON becomes increasingly a tool for end-to-end automation.
SON benchmarking
Functional and performance expectations for SON features in the HetNet are not well
defined.
Backhaul SON
Backhaul evolution including self-backhaul is a key component of the HetNet and small
cell deployment.
Deployment
Deployment of SON small cell solutions can have broad network implications. What
are the deployment and maintenance challenges?
NFV implications
NFV is impacting the deployment options and interfaces of the HetNet. What are the
implications of network virtualization on SON for small cells?
Indoor location
E911 and Enterprise enterprise applications require indoor location technology. How
do small cells meet the requirements? How to ensure multivendor interoperability?
Energy savings
Leveraging SON for significant energy savings requires clear coverage and capacity
use cases in the HetNet.
Many of these challenges have both technology and organizational aspects, which may
be equally important. For instance, operators attach significant importance to issues of
end-to-end automation (including civil works around sites, access to city
infrastructure, and workflow management) – this may be as important to achieving
mass scale as automation once the network is in place. The Forum will be studying
templates and processes to ensure that deployment and running of HetNets is
increasingly simplified, even if the networks themselves become more complex and
multi-faceted.
The importance of logistical as well as technical issues is seen in the results of the
MNO survey. Asked to name their most important challenges to HetNet deployment,
the respondents then selected the three most important to their business case, from a
list of 10 (see Figure 7-1). The issues of deploying a HetNet at large scale – essential
to many of the use cases highlighted above – dominate, with 57% naming automation
as their most important challenge, and 49% naming deployment logistics. Between
those two came spectrum availability (49%) – while the ability to harness more
sources of spectrum is a key driver for HetNet, doubts about being able to access
those airwaves remain an important barrier.
14
21 49
Deployment logistics/workflow
Large-scale automation
29
Backhaul
Immature standards - SON, NFV
Spectrum availability
17
57 Future proofing - SDN, 5G
Multivendor integration
18
Effective capacity planning
IoT support
Figure 7–1 Most important challenges to deploying a HetNet – % of MNOs placing each
challenge in their top three
The Small Cell Forum’s HetNet and SON work programs are designed to advance the
technologies which will be needed to address the key HetNet drivers outlined in this
paper; and also to lower the barriers to deployment so that a mass-scale ecosystem
with trusted building blocks and processes can be achieved quickly. Figure 7-2
indicates how current work items map directly onto the burning issues identified by
Figure 7–2 Key HetNet/SON issues addressed in Small Cell Forum’s 2016 work program and
Release 7
The Forum is committed to a program which puts building blocks in place to support
current market drivers, but which are also open and adaptable, so that operators can
invest now in platforms which will later be able to support unforeseen new use cases.