Professional Documents
Culture Documents
GENERAL INFORMATION
Company name Apple
Ticker AAPL NOTE: Circularity should always be set "ON".
Share price as of last close $604.86 Please refer to the comment for further details
Latest closing share price date 5/19/2014
Latest fiscal year end date 9/30/2013
Circularity ON/BREAK ON (Default)
Select an operating scenario 2
INCOME STATEMENT
Fiscal year 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P
Fiscal year end date 9/30/2011 9/30/2012 9/30/2013 9/30/2014 9/30/2015 9/30/2016 9/30/2017 9/30/2018
Net sales 108,249 156,508 170,910 179,349 188,348 196,789 206,473 217,602
Cost of sales 64,431 87,846 106,606 111,914 117,529 122,796 128,839 135,784
Gross profit 43,818 68,662 64,304 67,435 70,819 73,993 77,634 81,818
Research and development 2,429 3,381 4,475 4,663 4,897 5,117 5,368 5,658
Selling, general and administrative 7,599 10,040 10,830 11,299 11,866 12,398 13,008 13,709
Other operating income/(expense) - - - - - - - -
Operating profit (EBIT) 33,790 55,241 48,999 51,473 54,056 56,478 59,258 62,452
Interest income (financial income) 519 1,088 1,616 1,563 1,684 1,910 2,250 2,598
Interest expense - - 136 329 329 317 317 252
Other expense 104 566 324 324 324 324 324 324
Gain/(loss) from affiliates - - - - - - - -
Pretax profit 34,205 55,763 50,155 52,383 55,086 57,748 60,867 64,474
Taxes 8,283 14,030 13,118 13,724 14,322 15,014 15,825 16,763
Minority interest expense (enter as -) - - - - - - - -
Net income (after minority interest) 25,922 41,733 37,037 38,658 40,764 42,733 45,041 47,711
Number of weighted average shares (for computing basic EPS 924 935 925 886 859 847 847 847
Impact of dilutive securities on number of shares 12 11 6 6 6 6 6 6
Number of diluted shares for computing EPS 937 945 932 892 866 853 853 853
Impact of dilutive securities on income - - - 0 0 0 0 0
Basic EPS $28.05 $44.64 $40.03 $43.64 $47.44 $50.48 $53.21 $56.36
Diluted EPS $27.68 $44.15 $39.75 $43.33 $47.09 $50.11 $52.81 $55.94
EBITDA reconciliation
EBIT 33,790 55,241 48,999 51,473 54,056 56,478 59,258 62,452
Depreciation & amortization 1,814 3,277 6,757 6,929 7,706 8,483 9,276 10,228
Stock based compensation 1,168 1,740 2,253 2,302 2,417 2,526 2,650 2,793
EBITDA 36,772 60,258 58,009 60,704 64,179 67,487 71,184 75,472
REVENUE BY SEGMENTS
Fiscal year 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P
Fiscal year end date 9/30/2011 9/30/2012 9/30/2013 9/30/2014 9/30/2015 9/30/2016 9/30/2017 9/30/2018
Revenues by Product
iPhone 45,998 78,692 91,279 97,968 104,826 107,970 111,210 114,546
% growth 71.1% 16.0%
iPad 19,168 30,945 31,980 31,622 31,622 31,622 31,622 31,622
% growth 61.4% 3.3%
Mac 21,783 23,221 21,483 20,946 18,840 18,840 18,840 18,840
% growth 6.6% (7.5%)
iPod 7,453 5,615 4,411 3,275 2,728 2,319 1,971 1,675
% growth (24.7%) (21.4%)
iTunes / Software / Services 9,373 12,890 16,051 19,261 23,113 27,736 33,283 39,940
% growth 37.5% 24.5%
Accessories 4,474 5,145 5,706 6,277 7,218 8,301 9,546 10,978
% growth 15.0% 10.9%
Total 108,249 156,508 170,910 179,349 188,348 196,789 206,473 217,602
% growth 44.6% 9.2% 4.9% 5.0% 4.5% 4.9% 5.4%
Units
iPhone 72.293 125.046 150.257 167.987 179.746 185.139 190.693 196.414
% growth 73.0% 20.2% 11.8% 7.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
iPad 32.394 58.310 71.033 71.672 71.672 71.672 71.672 71.672
% growth 80.0% 21.8% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mac 16.735 18.158 16.341 15.932 15.327 15.327 15.327 15.327
% growth 8.5% (10.0%) (2.5%) (3.8%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
iPod 42.620 35.165 26.379 19.784 16.817 14.294 12.150 10.328
% growth (17.5%) (25.0%) (25.0%) (15.0%) (15.0%) (15.0%) (15.0%)
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Fiscal year 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P
Fiscal year end date 9/30/2011 9/30/2012 9/30/2013 9/30/2014 9/30/2015 9/30/2016 9/30/2017 9/30/2018
ASPs
iPhone 636.3 629.3 607.5 583.2 583.2 583.2 583.2 583.2
% growth (1.1%) (3.5%) (4.0%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
iPad 591.7 530.7 450.2 441.2 441.2 441.2 441.2 441.2
% growth (10.3%) (15.2%) (2.0%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mac 1,301.6 1,278.8 1,314.7 1,314.7 1,229.2 1,229.2 1,229.2 1,229.2
% growth (1.8%) 2.8% 0.0% (6.5%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
iPod 174.9 159.7 167.2 165.5 162.2 162.2 162.2 162.2
% growth (8.7%) 4.7% (1.0%) (2.0%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
iTunes / Software / Services 37.5% 24.5% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0%
Accessories 15.0% 10.9% 10.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%
BALANCE SHEET
Fiscal year 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P
Fiscal year end date 9/30/2011 9/30/2012 9/30/2013 9/30/2014 9/30/2015 9/30/2016 9/30/2017 9/30/2018
Cash & equivalents ST & LT market. securities 121,251 146,761 156,731 170,207 200,675 236,175 268,200
Accounts receivable 10,930 13,102 13,758 14,449 15,096 15,839 16,693
Inventory 791 1,764 1,791 1,880 1,965 2,061 2,173
Other current assets (inc. non-trade receivables) 14,220 14,421 14,421 14,421 14,421 14,421 14,421
Deferred tax assets 2,583 3,453 3,453 3,453 3,453 3,453 3,453
Property, plant & equipment 15,452 16,597 19,685 22,382 24,571 26,224 27,310
Acquired intangible assets (inc. Goodwill) 5,359 5,756 4,706 3,721 2,888 2,282 1,848
Investment in affiliates - - - - - - -
Other non-current assets 5,478 5,146 5,146 5,146 5,146 5,146 5,146
Total assets 176,064 207,000 219,691 235,659 268,215 305,602 339,244
Common stock / additional paid in capital 16,422 19,764 22,066 24,483 27,009 29,658 32,451
Treasury stock 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Retained earnings / accumulated deficit 101,289 104,256 113,388 124,025 154,569 186,764 220,866
Other comprehensive income / (loss) 499 (471) (471) (471) (471) (471) (471)
Investment and development fund (for VN) - - - - - - -
Financial reserve fund (for VN) - - - - - - -
Other equity account - - - - - - -
Total equity 118,210 123,549 134,983 148,037 181,107 215,951 252,846
Minority interest - - 0 0 0 0 0
Balance check 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ratios
Net debt (negative means more cash than debt) (129,801) (139,771) (153,247) (186,215) (221,715) (259,740)
Asset turnover (Revenue / Total assets) 0.89x 0.84x 0.83x 0.78x 0.72x 0.67x
Net profit margin 21.7% 21.6% 21.6% 21.7% 21.8% 21.9%
Return on assets (ROA) 19.3% 18.1% 17.9% 17.0% 15.7% 14.8%
Return on book equity (ROE) 30.6% 29.9% 28.8% 26.0% 22.7% 20.4%
WORKING CAPITAL
Fiscal year 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P
Fiscal year end date 9/30/2011 9/30/2012 9/30/2013 9/30/2014 9/30/2015 9/30/2016 9/30/2017 9/30/2018
Account receivable
Beginning of period 13,102 13,758 14,449 15,096 15,839
Increases / (decreases) 656 690 648 743 854
End of period 10,930 13,102 13,758 14,449 15,096 15,839 16,693
1. Growth with net sales (default) 4.9% 5.0% 4.5% 4.9% 5.4%
2. Override 1: AR as % of sales 7.0% 7.7%
3. Override 2: Days sales outstanding (DSO) 25 days 28 days 28 days 28 days 28 days 28 days 28 days
Inventory
Beginning of period 1,764 1,791 1,880 1,965 2,061
Increases / (decreases) 27 90 84 97 111
End of period 791 1,764 1,791 1,880 1,965 2,061 2,173
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Fiscal year 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P
Fiscal year end date 9/30/2011 9/30/2012 9/30/2013 9/30/2014 9/30/2015 9/30/2016 9/30/2017 9/30/2018
End of period 14,220 14,421 14,421 14,421 14,421 14,421 14,421
Account payable
Beginning of period 22,367 22,689 24,472 25,569 26,827
Increases / (decreases) 322 1,782 1,097 1,258 1,446
End of period 21,175 22,367 22,689 24,472 25,569 26,827 28,273
1. Growth with net sales (default) 4.9% 5.0% 4.5% 4.9% 5.4%
2. Override 1: as % of sales 12.8% 14.0% 13.3% 12.7% 12.1% 11.6% 11.0%
1. Growth with net sales (default) 4.9% 5.0% 4.5% 4.9% 5.4%
2. Override 1: absolute increases / (decreases) 0 0 0 0 0
Capex (enter as +) 4,260 8,295 8,165 8,967 9,417 9,839 10,324 10,880
Capex as % of net sales 3.9% 5.3% 4.8% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
Existing PP&E
Gross PP&E 21,887 28,519
Non-depreciable PP&E (i.e. land) (enter as -) (1,200) (1,650)
Accumulated depreciation (enter as -) (6,435) (11,922)
Net PP&E (excl. land) 14,252 14,947
Depreciation from CAPEX purchased in 2014 Mid-year adj. 0.5 897 1,793 1,793 1,793 1,793
Depreciation from CAPEX purchased in 2015 942 1,883 1,883 1,883
Depreciation from CAPEX purchased in 2016 984 1,968 1,968
Depreciation from CAPEX purchased in 2017 1,032 2,065
Depreciation from CAPEX purchased in 2018 1,088
Total depreciation from new CAPEX 897 2,735 4,661 6,677 8,798
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Fiscal year 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P
Fiscal year end date 9/30/2011 9/30/2012 9/30/2013 9/30/2014 9/30/2015 9/30/2016 9/30/2017 9/30/2018
Fiscal year end date 9/30/2011 9/30/2012 9/30/2013 9/30/2014 9/30/2015 9/30/2016 9/30/2017 9/30/2018
Total debt (excluding revolving debt) - 16,960 16,960 16,960 14,460 14,460 8,460
Interest expense on long term debt and CP of LTD - 136 329 329 317 317 252
Weighted average interest rate 1.6% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 2.2% 2.2%
% of interest expense paid in cash 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
12/26/2019 32
Fiscal year 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P
Fiscal year end date 9/30/2011 9/30/2012 9/30/2013 9/30/2014 9/30/2015 9/30/2016 9/30/2017 9/30/2018
% of interest expense accrues as PIK 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
CAPITAL STOCK
Fiscal year 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P
Fiscal year end date 9/30/2011 9/30/2012 9/30/2013 9/30/2014 9/30/2015 9/30/2016 9/30/2017 9/30/2018
Stock based compensation 1,168 1,740 2,253 2,302 2,417 2,526 2,650 2,793
SBC as % of all operating expenses 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%
Treasury stock
Beginning of period 0 0 0 0 0
Less: Stock repurchases (enter as -) 0 0 (22,860) (18,500) (18,500) 0 0 0
Plus: Stocks retired 0 0 22,860 18,500 18,500 0 0 0
End of period 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Retained earnings
Beginning of period 104,256 113,388 124,025 154,569 186,764
Plus: Net income 38,658 40,764 42,733 45,041 47,711
Less: Common dividends (11,026) (11,627) (12,189) (12,847) (13,608)
Less: part of treasury stocks retired above common stocks & APIC (18,500) (18,500) - - -
Less: increase in Bonus and welfare fund (for VN) - - - - -
Less: increase in Science and technology development fund (for VN) - - - - -
Less: increase in Investment and development fund (for VN) - - - - -
Less: increase in Financial reserve fund (for VN) - - - - -
End of period 101,289 104,256 113,388 124,025 154,569 186,764 220,866
Net income 25,922 41,733 37,037 38,658 40,764 42,733 45,041 47,711
Common dividends (enter as -) 0 (2,488) (10,564) (11,026) (11,627) (12,189) (12,847) (13,608)
Dividend payout ratio 0.0% 6.0% 28.5% 28.5% 28.5% 28.5% 28.5% 28.5%
Plus: Change in current portion of long term debt 0 2,500 (2,500) 6,000 (6,000)
Plus: change in Revolver 0 0 0 0 0
Plus: Change in long term debt 0 (2,500) 0 (6,000) 0
Plus: New share issuances 0 0 0 0 0
Less: Share repurchases (18,500) (18,500) 0 0 0
Less: Common dividends (11,026) (11,627) (12,189) (12,847) (13,608)
Less: Dividend paid to minority interest 0 0 0 0 0
Plus: change in Other comprehensive income 0 0 0 0 0
Plus: change in Other equity account 0 0 0 0 0
Cash from financing activities (29,526) (30,127) (14,689) (12,847) (19,608)
12/26/2019 32
Fiscal year 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P
Fiscal year end date 9/30/2011 9/30/2012 9/30/2013 9/30/2014 9/30/2015 9/30/2016 9/30/2017 9/30/2018
Net change in cash during period 9,970 13,476 30,468 35,500 32,025
Interest rate on cash & ST+LT marketble securities 0.77% 1.03% 1.03% 1.03% 1.03% 1.03% 1.03% 1.03%
Interest income 1,563 1,684 1,910 2,250 2,598
SHARES OUTSTANDING
Fiscal year 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P
Fiscal year end date 9/30/2011 9/30/2012 9/30/2013 9/30/2014 9/30/2015 9/30/2016 9/30/2017 9/30/2018
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
38.5%
38.0%
37.6%
36.5%
36.0%
35.5%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
SCENARIO ANALYSIS
Fiscal year 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P
Fiscal year end date 9/30/2011 9/30/2012 9/30/2013 9/30/2014 9/30/2015 9/30/2016 9/30/2017 9/30/2018
12/26/2019 32
Fiscal year 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P 2018P
Fiscal year end date 9/30/2011 9/30/2012 9/30/2013 9/30/2014 9/30/2015 9/30/2016 9/30/2017 9/30/2018
Gross profit as % of sales 37.6% 37.6% 37.6% 37.6% 37.6%
R&D margin 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6%
SG&A margin 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3%
12/26/2019 32
Discounted Cash Flow Model for Apple
Unlevered beta = Asset beta = Eq
General data (debt beta is assumed to be 0)
Share price as of last close $604.86 --> Asset beta = Equity beta*E/A O
Latest closing share price date 5/19/2014 With A = E+D*(1-t)
--> Asset beta = Equity beta*E/(E
Latest basic share count 861.38 --> Asset beta = Equity beta*1/(1
Case Base case Companies in a same industry are
CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model): Cost of equity kE=Rf+beta*ERP with ERP=Equity Risk Premium=(RM-Rf+CRP)
Cost of equity
Observed beta 0.93
Select beta (observed or industry) Industry
Beta selected 0.88
Risk-Free Rate (Rf) (US) 2.4%
Equity Risk Premium 8.0%
Cost of equity 9.4%
Override
Cost of capital Capital structure (target)
Cost of debt before tax 2.0% D/V
Tax rate 26.0% E/V
Cost of debt after tax 1.5%
Use capital structure Current
D/V 3.2%
Cost of capital (WACC) 9.2%
Football field
1,250.0 $1,180.82
$1,022.31
1,050.0
850.0 $938.83 $604.59
650.0 $784.07
450.0
250.0 $393.78
Low Diff. High
DCF Value at 7.25x-11.25x Exit EBITDA Range 784.1 238.2 1,022.3
DCF Value at 2.0%-4.0% Perpetuity Range 938.8 242.0 1,180.8
52 Week Market High/Low 393.78 210.8 604.59
nlevered beta = Asset beta = Equity beta * E/A + Debt beta *D/A
debt beta is assumed to be 0)
> Asset beta = Equity beta*E/A OR Asset beta*A = Equity beta*E
With A = E+D*(1-t)
> Asset beta = Equity beta*E/(E+D*(1-t))
> Asset beta = Equity beta*1/(1+(D/E)*(1-t))
ompanies in a same industry are assumed to have similar asset beta.
Hewlett-
Packard
Company name Apple Inc Google Inc. Company
Ticker AAPL GOOG HPQ
Date of latest quarter 29/Mar/2014 31/Mar/2014 30/Apr/2014
Date of latest fiscal year end (FYE) 28/Sep/2013 31/Dec/2013 31/Oct/2013
Latest quarter Q2 Q1 Select:
Stock price on current date $604.59 $528.86 $33.11
Share price date 19/May/14 19/May/14 19/May/14
SHARES DATA
Basic shares outstanding (mm) 861.38 674.46 1,916.00
Options exercisable
Diluted shares outstanding 861.38 674.46 1,916.00
Non-recurring exclusions
Excluded operating expense / (income)
Excluded nonoperating expense / (income)
Tax effect of Non-recurring exclusions
Non-recurring exclusions
Excluded operating expense / (income)
Excluded nonoperating expense / (income)
Tax effect of Non-recurring exclusions
Non-recurring exclusions
Excluded operating expense / (income)
Excluded nonoperating expense / (income)
Tax effect of Non-recurring exclusions
SUMMARY
LAST TWELVE MONTHS (LTM) FINANCIALS AAPL GOOG HPQ
LTM ending date: 29/Mar/14 31/Mar/14 30/Apr/14
Revenues $176,035 $62,294 $111,820
EBITDA 57,795 18,459 12,079
EBIT 50,287 14,333 7,597
EPS $42.01 $36.14 $2.84
$1,000
$800
$614.85
$600
$604.59
$551.33
$489.30
$400
$285.49
$200
$0
LTM EV / Revenues LTM EV / EBITDA LTM EV / EBIT LTM P/E
Select: Select: Select: Select: Select: Select: Select:
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
NM NM NM NM NM NM NM
NM NM NM NM NM NM NM
NM NM NM NM NM NM NM
NM NM NM NM NM NM NM
NM NM NM NM NM NM NM
Mean
Mean excl. target
2.6x 2.8x
452,421 485,054
586,048 618,681
$680.36 $718.24
9.7x 11.2x
559,625 645,860
693,252 779,487
$804.81 $904.93
8.3x 15.3x
419,202 768,581
552,829 902,208
$641.79 $1,047.40
13.6x 13.1x
$569.58 $552.08
$805.66
Comments
Note: If your company has amortization related to bond discounts / premiums, do not include that in this line item. Such amor
Enter as a negative #
n this line item. Such amortization is accounted for in interest expense