March 2019

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 Quarterly Perspective

Transportation & Logistics 2Q19e 3Q19e FY2019

1. E-commerce 1. E-commerce
1. E-commerce development
development development
2. Easing ride hailing 2. Easing ride hailing 2. Easing ride hailing
Catalysts competition competition competition
3. Lebaran effect
4. ASSA possible rights issue
1. Execution risks 1. Execution risks 1. Execution risks
2. Lack of technology and 2. Lack of technology and 2. Lack of technology and
capital capital capital
Risks
3. Continued competition in 3. Continued competition in 3. Continued competition in
ride hailing and courier ride hailing and courier ride hailing and courier
services services services
Rating OVERWEIGHT UNDERWEIGHT OVERWEIGHT
Top picks:
ASSA IJ, MMLP IJ ASSA IJ, MMLP IJ ASSA IJ, MMLP IJ
 Our e-commerce market

Source: Bukalapak
 Our e-commerce market

Source: Katadata, Statista

 Our e-commerce market

Source: Google Indonesia

 Increasing reliance on smartphone

Source: Google Indonesia

E-commerce penetration: Highest in the world (survey-based)
Especially via mobile phone (telepon keupeul)
Ample room for higher ARPU
ARPU vs GDP per capita
Ample room on retail products
 Social commerce plays a big role in our online commerce market

Source: McKinsey
 Social commerce plays a big role in our online commerce market

Source: Katadata
Understanding our demography
Gen Z is the major player
Gen Z 101

• Atta Halilintar
• Ria Ricis
• Humorku anjlok
• Receh yang hqq
• Mohon maaf sekadar
mengingatkan
• Sobat misqueen
Understanding our demography
Understanding our demography
Understanding our demography
 Logistic service is important in terms of value

Source: McKinsey
 A major pillar in online commerce development

Source: McKinsey
 Demanding, impatient

Source: Google Indonesia

 Courier overview

Source: Shake Deal ( https://medium.com/shakedeal/shakedeal-

your-business-is-our-business-722513ed1d52 )
Integrated logistics service

Two main
ingredients:
capital and
network
Courier overview
 Transportation – Ride hailing

Source: AlphaBeta
 Transportation – Ride hailing

Source: AlphaBeta
 Ride hailing revenue projection: 26% CAGR

Source: Statista
 ARPU tends to be very flat

Source: Statista
 Again, millennials and Gen Z

Source: Statista
 Again, millennials and Gen Z

Source: Statista
 Ample penetration room

Source: Statista
 Courier parcel overview

Provider Parcel / day

JNE 1 million

J&T 700 – 800 thousand

SAPX 100 thousand

ASSA target 2 million in 2023

Source: ASSA, SAPX

Transportation & Logistics

ASSA BIRD
Rp3 T Rp8,6 T

IMJS MMLP SAPX

Rp4 T Rp2,9 T Rp533 billion
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 Price performance

Source: Bloomberg
 ASSA: Big idea, burning money

Targeting 50 –
60% contribution
to ASSA books

Source: ASSA
 ASSA: Triputra targets 10 x EV/EBITDA

• They argue that Asian logistics companies trade at around 13 – 14 x EV/EBITDA.

Give it some discounts and we will arrived at 10 x
• The main problem: Anteraja was only started on 4 March 2019. How can we
justify the valuation?
Source: Bloomberg
 BIRD: Yet to have clear strategy

Source: BIRD
 BIRD: Improvement in operational numbers

Source: BIRD
 BIRD: Easing competition in Jadetabek, while ex-Jadetabek
still tight

Source: BIRD
 BIRD: Easing competition in Jadetabek, while ex-Jadetabek
still tight

Source: BIRD
 BIRD: Citi Trans acquisition, will be developed further to Central Java

Source: Mandiri
Sekuritas
 BIRD: On demand shuttle – didn’t work in the U.S.

Source: The Verge

 IMJS: Beaaaaaaaaauuuuuuutiful

Source: IMAS IMJS

 IMJS: How can we calculate logistics contribution?

IMJS REVENUE CONTRIBUTION

Financial services Car rental and related business Others

17%

On EBITDA basis, Seino

Indomobil contributed
46% around 8% of IMJS
EBITDA, as of 9M18

37%

Source: IMAS IMJS

 IMJS: Customer portfolio

FMCG clients are preferred since for same volume, the

goods value is much lower compared to tobacco (Rp150
million vs Rp5 bio)

Source: IMAS IMJS

 IMJS: “Beautiful memang beda”. CQGR?!

Source: IMAS IMJS

 IMJS: “Beautiful memang beda”. CQGR?!

Source: IMAS IMJS

 MMLP: The only listed warehousing company

Source: IMAS IMJS

 MMLP: Strategic location

Source: IMAS IMJS

 MMLP: Clients

Source: IMAS IMJS

 SAPX: competing with air freight

Source: IMAS IMJS

 SAPX: Manual operation

Source: IMAS IMJS

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TERIMA KASIH

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