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Artificial Neural Networks implementation potentials-A literature review

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Artificial Neural Networks implementation potentials – A literature review

Maja Mamula
Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management, Primorska 42, Opatija, Croatia
majam@fthm.hr

Kristina Duvnjak
Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management, Primorska 42, Opatija, Croatia
kri.duvnjak@gmail.com

Abstract:
The significant worldwide growth of the tourism sector in the two past decades resulted in an increased number of
researches and studies of tourism industry determinants. In analysing and modelling core tourism components,
mostly using secondary data, different methods and technique are applied; different forecast models are
constructed and compared using different forecast error measures.
The aim of this research is to provide a detailed outline of different quantitative methods and techniques, both the
traditional ones as well as some emerging most sophisticated methods used in modelling and forecasting tourism.
This paper reviews the published researches and studies that use the Artificial Neural Networks in modelling and
forecasting tourism industry. The most significant finding that resulted from the detailed desk research is that,
beside their great implementation potentials, Artificial Neural Networks are underused in tourism analysing,
although their forecast efficiency excel the usual traditional models.

Key words: ANN, forecasting, modelling, tourism

JEL code: C10, C18, C20, C40

1. Introduction
Based on data reported by destinations around the world, it is estimated that international tourist arrivals
(overnight visitors) worldwide increased 7% in 2017. This is well above the sustained and consistent
trend of 4% or higher growth since 2010 and represents the strongest results in seven years. (UNWTO,
2018). Due to the importance of tourism for world economy, government policymaker as well as
business managers, should pay close attention to the tourism growth and development; it is necessary to
pay attention to the modelling and forecasting of the basic determinants in tourism. At the same time,
with the importance of tourism, the number of papers researching and applying traditional and new
emerging methods of analysis and forecasting in tourism has also increased.
Bearing in mind mentioned above, the main goal of this research is to provide an outline of different
quantitative methods and techniques used in tourism demand modelling and forecasting, and to present
implementation potentials of emerging methods, such artificial intelligence methods. Analysing the
existing scientific papers on tourism determinants modelling and forecasting, the authors attempt to
underline the possibilities of usage new sophisticated methods, and to highlight the implementation
potentials of Artificial Neural Networks in tourism analysis. With this aim, a systematic desk research
was conducted, available databases were researched, and the available papers were systematised.
The contribution of this research is primarily in the fact that the paper presents a comprehensive
summary of papers related to the ANN application in tourism and, as such, serves as the starting point
for future research on this topic (this way, its applicative contribution is also reflected).

2. Research background
According to Liang (2014), methods for modelling and forecasting tourism demand can be divided into
two categories: qualitative and quantitative approaches…The quantitative methods can be further
divided into three sub-categories: causal econometric models, time series approaches and artificial
intelligence techniques.
Along with the great potentials in world tourism over past two decades is growing interest in tourism
research. A number of review articles on tourism demand forecasting have been published over last two
decades (Crouch, 1994; Witt, Witt, 1995; Li, Song, Witt, 2005; Song, Li, 2008). The most recent
literature review research (Song, Li, 2008) reviewed the published studies on tourism demand modelling
since 2000 and summarized the latest development of quantitative forecasting techniques in three
categories; time series models, econometric models and other emerging methods such AI techniques.
Also, in the 21st century artificial intelligence has become an important area in virtually all fields:
engineering, education, medicine, business, accounting, finance, marketing, economics, stock market
and law, among others (Oke, 2008). By the derivation of back propagation, the modern era of neural
networks started in 1986. A good amount of literature survey has been carried out on neural networks.
In 1992 Wiggins et al. (Wiggins, Engquist, Looper, 1992) discussed on ANN application potentials in
the Air Force personnel system, choosing application categories somewhat arbitrary. An extensive
literature survey was conducted for the application of neural networks in applications related to control
systems by Lalithamma and Puttaswamy (Lalithamma, Puttaswamy, 2013). They discussed various
models in detail and studies their suitability for specific application. Speaking about application
potentials in economics science there have been some criticism on applications in finance (the estimated
coefficients don´t have real interpretation, there are no specific tests to identify if a model is adequate,
etc.), but despite of these critics ANNs have been successfully applied in specific finance areas (Gómez
Ramos, Venegas Martínez, 2013). Krešić et al. (Krešić, Mikulić, Kožić, 2013) presented working
(conference) paper in which they provided basic concepts, main areas of application, as well as major
advantages and disadvantages of usage of ANN-based approaches, compared to traditional approaches.
Although the authors have highlighted the most important papers of ANN application in tourism, the
most of their paper is dedicated to demonstrations of the particular advantages and shortcomings of
ANN-based applications using an empirical case example. In particular, a multilayer perceptron-based
key-driver analysis is performed on the data to obtain insight into those destination attributes that have
a predominant influence on the overall tourist experience in Sarajevo. (Krešić, Mikulić, Kožić, 2013).
Regardless to the increasing importance of artificial neural networks, there is no systematic and
comprehensive literature review of the papers dealing with the application of ANN in tourism.
Taking into consideration all mentioned above, the authors of this review attempted to include and
systematise recent papers with an application of ANN is such specific area of tourism analysis.

3. Research methodology
As has already been said, this research includes published tourism-related papers, in which as modelling
and forecasting method quantitative methods were used. The authors studied 57 papers on modelling
tourism in the last decade (2008 – 2018). This period was analysed because in earlier researches (pre-
2008) mostly traditional methods were used, such as time series or causal analysis. This prevented the
analysis of the potentials of the artificial intelligence methods. It is also important to note that this
research doesn´t attempt to restate findings of some previous research. This literature review is account
of studies in which quantitative methods in tourism analysis in observed period were used.
The authors conducted systematic desk research on databases available to Croatian scientific public
(WOSS Core Collection, Scopus, Google Scholar), and references from published papers. In the process
of databases researching, the following search options were used: by topic, by title, by publication name,
by document type (Web of Science) or by article title, by abstract and by keyword (Scopus). The search
was done using the following key words: tourism demand forecasting, econometric forecasting, time
series forecasting, artificial intelligence and tourism, artificial neural networks and tourism, ANN and
tourism forecasting. The search timespan was from 2008 to 2018 year. More than 100 papers on theme
of tourism analysis were found, which from 57 journal papers were on tourism demand modelling and
forecasting. Since the goal of the research was to prove the usefulness but insufficient usage of emerging
sophisticated modern techniques also; the main criterion in final paper list selection was follows: In
analysed paper, quantitative methods in modelling some of tourism determinants were used. Analysed
papers mostly focused on different quantitative methods in order to analyse different tourism
determinants.
The papers published in the conference proceedings weren´t included in the review. At the beginning of
the research, the dominance of traditional quantitative approach is observed in relation to modern one.

4. Empirical findings
Authors identified that in 47 papers traditional modelling methods (time series/causal) methods were
used while in the 26 of them some of artificial intelligence technique were used. In 16 papers the
approach was combined; traditional and artificial intelligence methods were used in the same research.

4.1. Traditional quantitative methods

As said before, quantitative forecasting methods can be divided into two major categories; traditional
quantitative methods and artificial intelligence methods. According to conducted desk research, in
observed period, the most used forecasting models were traditional ones; both time series and
econometric models. The main difference between these two approaches is that time series approach
use pattern in data over the past to extrapolate the future value while econometric approach involve the
use of least square regression to estimate the quantitative relationship between tourism demand and its
determinants (Petropoulo, Nikolopoulos, Patelis, Assikamopoulos, 2005).

4.1.1. Time series models

Conducted analysis includes 46 papers in which traditional methods such time series or econometric
models were used. Time-series models have been widely used in observed period (40 papers).
Time-series models have been used in 40 papers, with the obvious dominance of the autoregressive
integrated moving average models (ARIMA). Particular attention is paid to determination of the historic
trends, especially to seasonality of time series which were researched. Considering the seasonal nature
of tourism as phenomenon, it is not surprising that in a large number of papers seasonal version of
ARIMA model was used; seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models (SARIMA).
Nanthakumar and Yahaya (2010) demonstrated that seasonality exists in the ARMA of tourist arrivals
to Malaysia and included seasonal dummy variables in the conditional ARIMA models. They concluded
that ARIMA model (ARIMA(1,0,1)) cannot perform seasonal effect in predicting tourism arrivals.
Some of authors emphasized main problems in tourism demand modelling and forecasting.
According to Huang, Yu and Parellada (2010) to forecast tourism demand is critical but is rather difficult
of its imprecision and nonlinearity. In addition, there may be regime switches in the time series. In that
case an innovative forecasting model is needed, such innovative regime switching model, which the
authors used to forecast Taiwan’s tourism demand. The authors clustered tourism demand into three
regimes, and after clustering used fuzzy time-series to forecast.
Brida, and Risso, (2011) confirmed that the use of Box-Jenkins seasonal ARIMA approach is an
appropriate technique to capture tourist arrival patterns and to forecast international tourist flow. They
concluded that this fact has significant implications on construction of a marketing strategic plan, also.
In addition to the aforementioned models, researchers tried to improve their prognostic performance
using other time series models in modelling and forecasting.
Baldigara and Mamula (2013) investigated time-series based quantitative methods in forecasting
German tourist arrivals to Croatia. According to calculated MAPE of generated models, they concluded
that almost all models are highly accurate (six of seven models had MAPE less than 10%). Çuhadar
(2014) aimed to determine the best forecasting model that provides the best performance when compared
ex post forecasting accuracy of different exponential smoothing and Box-Jenkins models which were to
forecast. This author observed that forecast by seasonal exponential smoothing model has provided quite
good results and on the other hand, SARIMA (2,0,0)(1,1,0)12 model has showed best forecast accuracy
with lowest deviation among all applied models.

4.1.2. Econometric models

When it comes to the econometric models (causal models) used as method of modelling and forecasting,
it is noted that this approach was used in a slightly smaller number of papers (14 papers).
According to Song and Li (2008) one of the major advantages of the econometric approach over the
time-series models lies in their ability to analyse the causal relationship between tourism demand
(dependent) variable and its influencing factor (explanatory variables). As far as this approach is
concerned, in the most of the studied papers, multiple linear regression was used. The realized arrivals
and overnight stays of tourists in different world regions were used as the dependent variables, and as
the independent variables following variables were used: the income level of origin country i in real
terms, relative cost of living in the destination country (measured as the relative CPI of destination
country to that of the origin country in constant prices, adjusted by the relevant exchanges rates),
tourism prices in substitute destinations (measured by weighted average price index of a set of
alternative destinations to the destination country) (Athanapoulos, Hyndman, Song, Wu, 2011), income
(measured by GDP), price (measured by CPI), exchange rate (Wang, 2009), population and income of
the country of origin of tourists, tourists travel expenses, accommodation fee every night and price level
in the tourist destination, and the expenses of travelling to tourist destination (Lin, Lee, 2013).
Furthermore, it has been reported that the travel cost variable is insignificant in many tourism demand
models. (Song, Witt, Athansopoulus, 2011). This authors conducted research on modelling and
forecasting quarterly tourist arrivals to Hong Kong from the four key sources; China, South Korea, the
UK and the USA. The results showed that developed TVP-STSM outperforms time series models such
Näive 1, Näive 2, SARIMA and BSM. Mentioned model outperformed econometric models also (TVP
model, CSM model and ADLM). In spite of that, author concluded that this model needs to be improved
because the estimation of such complex model, which has large numbers of parameters consumes large
number of degrees of freedom. In our region, econometric approach has been used in several papers.
Baldigara and Mamula (2015) used dynamic regression mode to estimate the number of German tourist
arrivals in Croatia. The authors concluded that Germans tourist arrivals are sensitive to the number of
German tourist departures abroad, price variable and seasonal dummy variables. As they stated, this
empirical finding can be considered as a starting point for some future researches of such a complex
phenomenon.
Since there is lot of available methods in forecasting tourism demand, appropriate method is usually
chosen based on the nature of the available data. That approach used Chu (2011) when noticed that the
tourist arrivals he analysed undergo drastic change in the level. The structure change affects both the
slope and the intercept of the regression equation, leading to the formulation of the piecewise linear
regression method.

4.2. Artificial intelligence models – Artificial Neural Networks

In addition to the methods mentioned above, a number of new quantitative forecasting methods,
predominantly artificial neural networks (ANNs) have emerged in the tourism forecasting literature
(Çuhadar, Cogurcu, Kukrer, 2014). The main objective of this study is to confirm the potentials of the
artificial intelligence models usage in tourism analysis, the usage of the Artificial Neural Networks
especially. An ANN is a network of many simple computing units called neurons, nodes or cells, which
are highly interconnected and organized in layers. Each neuron performs the simple task of information
processing by converting received inputs into processed outputs. Through the linking arcs among these
neuron, knowledge can be generated and stored regarding the strength of the relationship between
different nodes (Çuhadar et al., 2014). Analysing 56 papers which were studied for this research, it is
noticed that the artificial intelligence methods were used in 26 of them. The Artificial Neural Networks
were used in 23 papers. In the total amount of papers, the Artificial Neural Networks models were used
in combination with some of the traditional methods in 16 papers, which enables a comparative analysis
of traditional and artificial approach in tourism modelling and forecasting.
A kind of analysis of results obtained using artificial intelligence methods (more specifically,
Artificial Neural Networks) and some of the traditional forecasting methods will be presented below.
Hsu and Wang (2008) conducted research on Taiwanese tourist arrivals to the USA and Japan, based on
monthly data in the period 1990–2001. They employed following forecasting models (seven for each
destination): näive, exponential smoothing, Holt´s method, linear trend, multiple regression, back-
propagation neural network, grey forecasting models (GM and FGM). FGM(1,N) model outperformed
the benchmark methods (out-of-sample period). The BBPN model performed poorly overall due the
lack of data to training and learning the network.
Moutinho, Huang, Yu and Chen (2008) established four neural network models, and used in-sample-
data from the period 1991/1 to 2004/3 to train these neural networks. The out-of-sample data were
ranging from 2004/4 to 205/12. According to out-of-sample forecasting results all models were
compared and autoregressive model of an order (1) was applied for modelling and forecasting. In this
paper neural networks were used in order to select proper and valid model for tourism demand
forecasting.
A new Artificial Neural Network was proposed by Hamzacebi (2008); an Artificial Neural Network
for seasonal time series. With the goal to examine whether this kind of modelling gives better results
compared to seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model the author modelled the data set
of airline passengers (APTS), the data set of the total production value of Taiwan machinery industry
(TMITS), the data set of the sales of soft drinks (SDTS) and the data set of the quarterly sales (QSTS).
The results indicated that taking into considerations the seasonal character of the used data sets can be
successful without removing the seasonal effect from raw data.
Combination approach was used in the paper written by Fernandes, Teixeira, Ferreira and Azavedo
(2008). The authors sought to investigate and emphasize the benefits of the Artificial Neural Networks
methodology as an alternative to the methodology used to generate ARIMA model. Models which were
constructed on the ANN basis were based on a feedforward approach. The analysis of the forecasting
errors showed that both models produced highly accurate forecast for both periods included in the
analysis (2005 and 2006 year), and both regions (North and Centre region of Portugal). Calculated
MAPE, for each of the regions, showed that for the North region the ARIMA model presented a value
of 9.36%, and the Artificial Neural Network model one of 7.78%. Almost the same result was in the
Centre region, where calculated MAPE for ARIMA model presented value of 9.48%, and for ANN
model was 7.80%. The analysis showed that there is only slight difference between this two approaches,
but also that models based on artificial intelligence has better performances. After this research, with
the main goal of presenting a set of models for tourism competitiveness the same authors used Artificial
Neural Networks in forecasting of monthly guest nights in hotels in North a Centre of the Portugal. The
Artificial Neural Network they used was the standard type; three-layer feedforward network, and the
architecture, activation function and the algorithm of network training was proposed in their previous
research. Since the calculated MAPE was lower than 10%, the forecasting procedure showed that the
predicted data with proposed models has highly accurate forecast. Teixeira and Fernandes (2014) have
expanded the range of tourism determinants modelled by ANN, so the following tourism indicators were
used in their subsequent research: the tourism revenue and total overnights registered in hotels of the
North Portugal, domestic overnights tourism, foreigner overnights tourism, Portuguese, Spanish, France
and UK GDP per capita. These variables were used in modelling eleven different ANN models, with
quite number of sub-models. The revenue time series sub-model I1 achieved the best forecasting
performance with calculated MAPE of 4.7%. For the total overnight time series sub-model D2 is the
best with the MAPE of 6.00%. The domestic overnight time series achieved MAPE of 4.7%. All this
networks were experimental, due to combinations of different inputs and different number of hidden
nodes.
In Cang´s paper (Cang, 2011) the complexity of tourism demand as social phenomenon was modelled
by non-linear tourism demand forecast combination model. This research proposed nine individual
models, three linear combination models and one non-linear to model UK inbound tourism quarterly
arrivals. Comparing all models which were generated, the author concluded that the non-linear
combination forecasting model, multilayer perceptron neural network showed the best performance
compared to individual forecasting models and to all linear combination models.
Time series is a common used forecasting model with significant accuracy (Lin, Chen, Lee, 2011).
With the goal of evaluation of different forecasting methods mentioned authors modelled the data set of
a monthly visitors to Taiwan using ARIMA, ANN and MARS. ARIMA model showed the best
forecasting performance (calculated MAPE of 7.22%) compared to ANN (MAPE of 14.71%) and
MARS (MAPE of 17.72%).
In order to evaluate the performance of the EMD-BPN, single BPN and ARIMA Chen et al. (Chen, Lai,
Yeh, 2012) used data on international tourist arrivals to Taiwan. According to calculated MAPE, it can
be observed that EMD-BPN model has the smallest MAPE (0.958%), followed by BPN MAPE
(1.378%), and seasonal ARIMA (2,1,1)(1,1,1)12 (8.876%).
A large number of papers besides the modelling and forecasting results describe the advantages and
limitations of using a particular method also. In that sense, analysed papers can be considered as a guide
for choosing an appropriate method of modelling and forecasting. This approach was used by Lin and
Lee (2013) in paper in which they forecasted monthly data of tourist arrivals to Taiwan by MARS, ANN
and SVR. The results were as follows: the SVR model is optimal model (MAPE of 3.62), ANN model
is sub-optimal (MAPE of 7.08) and MARS is the worst model (MAPE of 11.26). At the end of the paper,
the authors suggest to consider screening out important explanatory variables using MARS model and
then to analyse them using ANN and SVR model in future researches.
Taiwanese tourism demand was the theme of the Liang´s research conducted in 2014 (Liang, 2014).
Besides forecasting with the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic model, the author
used regression analysis, exponential smoothing, Holt-winters exponential smoothing and BPN.
Comparing the obtained data, all the models can be categorized as highly or pretty accurate models, with
the smallest value of ARIMA-GARCH models MAPE (3.26).
Although it is generally believed that the nonlinear methods outperform the linear methods in
modelling economic behaviour, when comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques,
ARIMA models outperformed SETAR and ANN models. (Claveria, Torra, 2014)
Neural networks have been used in the researches depending on the field and subject of individual
authors' research. Given the importance of cruising tourism in Izmir (Turkey) the authors Çuhadar,
Cogurcu and Kukrer (2014) modelled the monthly number of foreign cruise tourist arrivals in Izmir.
They designed Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Radial Basis Function (RBF) and Generalised
Regression Neural Network (GRNN). The authors concluded that taking into consideration the criteria
established by Lewis (1982) all the models produced highly accurate forecasts (MLP generate MAPE
of 11.44%, RBF generated MAPE of 7.10% and GRNN generated MAPE of 15.06%). The non-linear
and non-stationary nature of tourism demand makes tourism forecasting studies difficult and drives
researchers to investigate new methods to obtain more accurate forecasts. Artificial Neural Networks
have emerged as an important tool for tourism demand forecasting and provide an attractive alternative
tool for both forecasting researchers and practitioners. (Çuhadar, Cogurcu, Kukrer 2014).
Since the tourist arrivals to Catalonia (Spain) from 2001 to 2012 from different markets showed a
stochastic trend, Claveria, Monte and Torra (2014) applied a multivariate neural networks (MLP, RBF
and Elman neural network) to obtain its forecasts. The procedure of modelling was as usual in neural
network modelling; training, validation and testing. When comparing each of neural networks, it can be
concluded that MLP and RBF networks showed better forecasting performance than Elman network.
As a significant contribution of this research can be highlighted the innovative approach to tourism
demand modelling and forecasting.
One of the main artificial intelligence tool are genetic algorithms, created in 1960s and 1970s by
John Holland. They were used in research of Noersasongko et al. (2016) in which they compared
forecasting techniques KNN, MLP and BPNN, using RMSE. Neural networks optimized by genetic
algorithm obtained better results than one without optimization, which leads to affirmation of the main
hypothesis of theirs research.
Over the past two decades’ tourism demand modelling and forecasting became one of the most
important parts of tourism analysis. Neural networks, as an artificial intelligence method for tourism
demand modelling have been regarded by many theoretical and practitioners as promising technology,
and consequently, in the last few decades more than 2000 articles on neural network forecasting have
been published covering a wide range of application (Yu, Wang, Gao, Tang, 2017). Recent research on
Japanese tourist arrivals in time period from 2001 to 2015 presented the combined model; the seasonal
trend autoregressive moving average with dendritic neural network model. Firstly, these authors used
SARIMA model to exclude long term linear trend from data, and then trained the residual data by
dendritic neural network. Obtained results implicated that the SA-D model perform much better than
those of the DNN model.
When combining the linear model and the nonlinear model to predict tourism demand results showed
that the combination models are superior compared to the individual models (Aladag, Egrioglu, Kadilar,
2012).

Conclusions
In this literature review 57 paper on quantitative methods in tourism demand modelling and
forecasting were analysed. In analysing and modelling core tourism components, mostly using
secondary data, different methods and technique were applied; different forecast models were
constructed and compared using different forecast error measures. All the papers were systematised in
two main categories; traditional models and artificial intelligence models. The general conclusion after
conducted desk research is that new, emerging techniques, such Artificial Neural Networks tend to
generate highly accurate forecasts under different circumstances. But, it can´t be concluded that any of
presented models outperform other models in forecasting competition.
The most of the analysed papers were based on aggregate data on some of tourism determinants (in
the most of the cases that was data on total tourism arrivals or total tourist overnights) at the region level.
In a number of papers, the importance of seasonal character of tourism has been emphasized, whether
traditional models or models based on artificial intelligence were used. Taking into consideration this
seasonal character, the accuracy of obtained results surely can be improved, as evidenced by analysed
paper.
The conducted analysis of the use of artificial intelligence models, especially Artificial Neural
Networks, showed that they are useful tools in the phase of model selection. ANN can be used to select
variables which can be used later in the phase of modelling and forecasting.
The aim of conducted research was to analyse the implementation potentials of Artificial Neural
Networks directly, and indirectly, to define the possibilities of applying Artificial Neural Networks in
tourism modelling in the Republic of Croatia. Namely, as shown by conducted research, a smaller
number of papers in the Republic of Croatia were concerned with modelling and forecasting tourism
demand using quantitative methods in observed period. In the most of this papers traditional approach
in modelling was used, while papers dealing with artificial intelligence methods were recorded in
smaller number of researches.
In that sense, this research represents a starting point for future tourism research, both worldwide and
in the Republic of Croatia. Emphasizing the implementation potentials of Artificial Neural Networks,
given literature review should serve as a guide to the theoreticians and practitioners in this complex area
and the starting point for their future researches.

Acknowledgment
This paper has been financially supported by the University of Rijeka, for the project ZP UNIRI 4/17.

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