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New Year Picks 2020

December 26, 2019


2020 – Time to look at broader markets

The year 2019 was definitely an eventful one for the markets as a number of crucial
events unfolded and new challenges emerged on both global as well as domestic
front. This led to increased volatility in the Indian markets. In terms of performance,
yet again while the benchmark indices remained resilient and scaled new highs, the
broader markets struggled to make a mark and underperformed. This is the second
consecutive year wherein only a few select large caps have outperformed and rightly
so as a number of negative factors outweighed the positive thereby restricting the
rally of broader markets.
In an eventful 2019, the benchmark indices There were a number of factors that worked in favour of the markets through the
scaled new highs however, broader markets course of the year. Firstly, the Union budget (pre-election) bought some relief for
continued to struggle and underperformed individual taxpayers and sops for farmers as the government looked to woo the
voters. And that worked well for the incumbent government as the BJP led NDA
registered a thumping victory in the general election and re-instated faith in market
participants for reform implementation. However, the enthusiasm soon fizzled as the
dwindling economy and some not-so-market friendly measures were announced in
the budget post-election leading the market to slide.

The government and RBI stepped up their game To cap the damage and revive the economy, the government and the RBI stepped up
and came out with several measures to revive their game and announced several measures. Some of the key measures included a
economy and capital markets reduction in corporate tax, easing FDI norms, PSU bank recapitalization, roll-back of
FPI surcharge, special dividend from RBI (Rs. 1.76 lakh cr) to the government and
some sector-specific measures in real estate and Auto. Further, the RBI dovish stance
and cumulative rate cut of 135bps through the year has definitely lifted the
sentiments.
Global markets remained buoyant however Ever since these measures, there was no looking back for the markets as the domestic
India grossly underperformed its peers sentiments turned positive fuelling the rally. Further, the mood in the global markets
also remained buoyant given the US Fed dovish stance, easing trade tensions
between two of the largest economies in the world and reduced uncertainty over
Brexit. Amid all, the Indian benchmark indices underperformed majority of its global
peers in 2019. It was largely expected as slowing economic growth, concerns over
fiscal slippage and the most recent concern of higher inflation restricted the upside
for the markets.
Exhibit 1: Global indices performance YTD

MALAYSIA
INDONESIA
SINGAPORE
KOREA
HONGKONG
NIFTY
UK
SENSEX
CHINA
JAPAN
US DOW
TAIWAN
GERMANY
US S&P
FRANCE
US NASDAQ
Religare Research Team
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
equityresearch@religare.com Source : Investing, RBL Research
+91 - 22 - 67288000
The FIIs turned net buyers in 2019 and Mutual On the fund flow front, the FIIs finally decided to buck the trend of 2018 wherein
Funds continued to pump in money led by steady they were net sellers. In 2019, the FIIs turned net buyers and pumped in nearly
SIP flows Rs. 87,000 cr into Indian equities. The change in the US interest rate trajectory and
several measures by the Indian government to revive the economy resulted in the
buoyant mood of the FIIs. The Mutual Funds too participated in pumping in nearly
Rs. 49,000 cr in 2019 led by a steady SIP inflow of Rs. 8,000 cr.

Exhibit 2: FII and MF inflows trend (Rs cr)


150,000

125,000 FIIs
MFs
100,000

75,000

50,000

25,000

-
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
-25,000

-50,000

-75,000
Source : SEBI, RBL Research

Key factors like declining interest rate, Key factors like declining interest rate, renewed buying interest from FIIs,
government measures and buoyant global government measures and buoyant mood of the global markets resulted in healthy
markets led to Nifty and Sensex ending higher gains for the Indian markets. Consequently, the Nifty and Sensex ended higher by
by 13.8% and 16.3% respectively 13.8% and 16.3%. However, the broader markets continued its decline for the
second straight year as it ended lower by 2.3% and 7.3% respectively. Amongst the
sectors, consistent rate cuts by the RBI and better than expected asset quality
resulted in outperformance by the banking sector. Further, resilient demand in
consumer durables (CD) despite the current slowdown resulted in strong gains for
the CD index. On the losing side, weaker economic outlook both global and domestic
led to a sharp decline in Auto and Metal indices.
Exhibit 3: S&P BSE sectoral indices performance - CY2019 YTD (% change)

BSE Cons. Durables

BSE Realty

BSE Bankex

BSE IT

BSE Oil & Gas

BSE FMCG

BSE Health

BSE Power

BSE Cap. Goods

BSE Auto

BSE Metal

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Source : Capitaline, RBL Research


We expect domestic and global growth There are several concerns that still prevail in the economy with a recent spike in
concerns to subside in coming quarters and inflation, growth yet to pick up and a reasonably good possibility of fiscal slippage
expect a gradual recovery this year. On the global front too, though the recent developments on the trade war
front between the US-China and Brexit have eased the pressure, these concerns are
far from over. Nonetheless, going forward, we expect these concerns to subside in
the coming quarters and expect a gradual recovery in the domestic economy.
Besides, with positive signs on the trade war front and US Fed dovish stance, we
expect a recovery in global economic growth as well.
From the market perspective, the recent strong run-up is pricing in revival in growth
and recovery in the corporate earnings cycle. However, given the current challenges,
we believe that the recovery would be gradual. On the benchmark front, Sensex has
potential to reach 43000+ zone and Nifty can test 13,000+ by the year end.
Given the run up in the benchmark indices we Having said that, we believe that there is a real case to be made here for the mid and
remain cautiously optimistic on the markets. small-cap stocks that have seen a decline in the last two years. We believe that 2020
However, broader markets could outperform could very well be the year where we would see strong outperformance from mid
due to valuation comfort and anticipated
and small-cap stocks due to a) valuation comfort, given the sharp correction,
demand recovery leading to better earnings
b) anticipated economic recovery would improve growth outlook for these
companies leading to better earnings. Further, it is being observed in the past that
midcap and smallcap stocks do well in a declining interest rate scenario which is the
case currently as the transmission of rates from banks have yet not started.
However, we do not expect the rally to be broad-based as seen in 2017 and would
recommend investors to remain selective in this space and stick with quality names
with strong corporate governance and sound fundamental track record.
Thus our New Year picks comprise of large caps as well as mid and small cap
stocks which we believe have strong potential to outperform.

Company Name *Reco Price (`) Target Price (`) % upside

Bajaj Auto Ltd. 3,227 3,723 15.4

Britannia Industries Ltd. 3,091 3,632 17.5

Coromandel
517 624 20.7
International Ltd.
Crompton Greaves 246 299 21.5
Consumer Electricals Ltd.

Gujarat Gas Ltd. 224 273 21.9

INOX Leisure Ltd. 377 464 23.1

Larsen & Toubro Ltd. 1,301 1,618 24.4

Reliance Nippon Life Asset


342 419 22.5
Management Ltd.

Tech Mahindra Ltd. 772 939 21.6

The Ramco Cement Ltd. 751 902 20.1


th
*Recommended Price as on 24 December, 2019
New Year Picks - 2020
Automobile Bajaj Auto Ltd.

BUY Outperformance to continue


CMP (Rs) 3,227 Bajaj Auto is the flagship company of the Bajaj Group and is one of the leading
manufacturers of two-wheelers and three-wheelers in India. It is the second largest
Target Price (Rs) 3,723
player in domestic motorcycles industry with a market share of 18.7%. In the three
Potential Upside 15.4% wheeler space, Bajaj Auto enjoys leadership position commanding a market share of
56.9%. Over the past few years, the company has witnessed strong growth in the
Sensex 41,461
exports market having presence in over 70 countries and contributes nearly 40% of
Nifty 12,215 its total volumes.

Investment rationale
Key Stock data  Market share gains to continue: Bajaj Auto is one of the prominent players in
BSE Code 532977 India’s motorcycles industry especially in the ‘Entry’ and ‘Premium’ segment. Post
a rough FY18, the company has re-gained its lost market share in the domestic
NSE Code BAJAJ-AUTO motorcycle segment in FY19. However, improved market share has been at the
Bloomberg BJAUT:IN expense of margins due to higher discounts. Nonetheless, going forward we
believe with anticipated demand recovery in the two-wheeler space, Bajaj Auto is
Shares o/s, Cr (FV 10) 28.9
better placed than peers with respect to BS-VI transition due to company’s tie up
Market Cap (Rs Cr) 93,189 with KTM. In the medium term, constant focus on innovation, filling product gaps
and improving consumer experience augurs well for growth prospects.
3M Avg Volume 4,44,691
 Exports to continue to grow at a healthy pace: Bajaj Auto is a strong player in
52 week H/L 3,289/2,442
the export market as it constitutes nearly 41% of its overall volumes. In FY19, the
company’s export volumes growth was strong with motorcycles at 21.6% and
commercial vehicles at 43.1%. We expect the growth momentum to moderate
Shareholding Pattern
given the higher base but remain healthy led by faster ramp-up in new markets.
(%) Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19

Promoter 51.2 53.5 53.5 Outlook & Valuation

FII 15.6 14.6 14.1 Bajaj Auto has been one of the outperformers in the entire auto space thanks to its
market share gains in the domestic market and strong growth in exports. We expect
DII 7.4 8.6 9.8 that the outperformance would continue as Bajaj Auto is better prepared for BS-VI
Others 25.8 23.3 22.6 transition. Further, anticipated revival in the auto industry and several new launches
would aid higher growth for the company. On the margins front, we expect the
trajectory to improve going forward due to its tie-up with KTM, and recent
1 Year relative price performance partnership with Husqvarna and Triumph which would help in premiumization.
Therefore, with improving industry growth trends coupled with company’s wide
120
product portfolio and strong brand presence, we expect it to continue its
110 outperformance. Hence, we recommend a Buy on the stock with a target price of
100 Rs. 3,723.
90

80 Financial Summary - consolidated


70 Particulars, Rs cr FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
60 Net revenue 30,250 30,008 34,509 37,270
Apr-19
Dec-18

Mar-19

May-19

Dec-19
Aug-19
Jan-19

Feb-19

Jun-19

Sep-19

Oct-19

Nov-19
Jul-19

EBITDA 4,982 4,891 5,694 6,150


Bajaj Auto BSE Auto EBITDAM (%) 16.5 16.3 16.5 16.5
APAT 4,675 4,885 5,559 5,985
APATM (%) 14.3 16.3 16.1 16.1
EPS (Rs) 149.7 168.8 192.1 206.8
PE (x) 21.5 19.1 16.8 15.6
RoE (%) 23.4 22.1 23.1 23.0
Source : Company; RBL Research
FMCG Britannia Industries Ltd.

BUY Premium products to drive growth


CMP (Rs) 3,091 Incorporated in 1918, Britannia Ind. Ltd. (BRIT) is India's leading packaged foods
company. BRIT’s product portfolio includes Biscuits, Bread, Cakes, Rusk, and Dairy
Target Price (Rs) 3,632 products including cheese, beverages, milk and yoghurt. Further, it manufactures
biscuits brands like Good Day, Tiger, Nutri Choice, Milk Bikis and Marie Gold. Further,
Potential Upside 17.5% it has wide distribution reach with presence across 60 countries and its footprints are
spread across North America, Europe, Africa and South East Asia through exports.
Sensex 41,461

Nifty 12,215 Investment rationale


 Focused on becoming total food company: BRIT is one of the largest players in
biscuit segment with its contribution of ~70% of the total revenue, while
remaining contribution is from other adjoining segments like cake, rusk, breads
Key Stock data and international business. Over past 1-2 quarter, the company has been facing
weak demand, however to overcome BRIT has been continuously focusing on
BSE Code 500825
new launches, renovating products, targeting premium category and
NSE Code BRITANNIA
strengthening distribution reach. Further, it is continuously re-branding/
renovating products in its key brands such as Treat, Nutri-choice and Good day,
Bloomberg BRIT:IN etc., to maintain its leadership in the market. In addition, its new categories such
as wafers and milkshakes are gaining good momentum. We believe BRIT is very
Shares o/s, Cr (FV 1) 12.0 well versed in promoting its brands domestically as well as internationally.
Moreover, on distribution front, BRIT is trying to scale up both its rural and urban
Market Cap (Rs Cr) 74,402 distribution reach, which is currently growing at a slow pace due to on-going
slowdown. Pickup in distribution would help in gaining market share going
3M Avg Volume 455,762 forward. Besides, the company is putting efforts to ramp up its overall
distribution network and gain market share in Hindi belt regions. We believe all
52 week H/L 3,584/2,300 efforts would help BRIT in becoming a total foods company.
 Mixed Q2FY20 performance, future remains bright: Britannia‘s Q2FY20
revenue grew by 6% YoY, while volumes remained ahead of the market growth
Shareholding Pattern at 3%. On operational front, EBITDA grew by 8.3% YoY while margins expanded
by 31bps to 16.1%. PAT stood at Rs 404cr, up by 33% YoY. Further, its PAT
(%) Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 margin expanded by 268bps to 13.2% due to corporate tax benefit. During the
quarter, the company focused on premiumization & innovation of products as
Promoter 50.7 50.7 50.7 well as scaling up its new businesses such as salty snacks and croissants. In
addition, Britannia is shifting focus from biscuits to new businesses, which would
FII 15.8 15.7 15.2 increase its overall market share. Going forward we believe it would continue to
focus more on its premium segment as it gains more traction as well as earns
DII 12.3 12.6 13.0 higher margin than mass segment.
Others 21.2 21.0 21.1 Outlook & Valuation
Britannia industries Ltd is one of the largest biscuit makers in the country and the
Indian biscuit industry is estimated to grow at a healthy pace. Currently, the FMCG
1 Year relative price performance sector is witnessing slowdown, however going forward demand revival is expected
on the back of recent government measures and new launches in premium segments.
115 We believe BRIT would be able to gain market share as well as sustain its leadership
110 position on the back of investments behind brands, innovating new products,
105 entering different categories and geographies. Further, we estimate revenue and
100 PAT to grow by 10% & 17% CAGR respectively over FY19-22E, driven by improved
95
product mix (more products in premium category), capacity addition, continued
90
85
efforts towards renovating & innovative products and cost saving initiatives. We
80 recommend a Buy on the stock with a target price of Rs. 3,632.
75
70 Financial Summary - consolidated
65
Particulars, Rs cr FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
Mar-19
Dec-18

Apr-19

May-19

Aug-19

Oct-19
Jan-19

Jun-19

Nov-19
Feb-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Net revenue 11,055 12,049 13,253 14,844


Britannia Nifty 50
EBITDA 1,738 1,928 2,174 2,479
EBITDAM (%) 15.7 16.0 16.4 16.7
APAT 1,156 1,460 1,630 1,857
APATM (%) 10.5 12.1 12.3 12.5
EPS (Rs) 48.1 60.7 67.8 77.3
PE (x) 64.2 50.9 45.6 40.0
RoE (%) 27.2 27.4 24.9 23.4
Source : Company; RBL Research
Fertilisers Coromandel International Ltd.

BUY Consistent Performer


CMP (Rs) 517 Coromandel International Ltd (CIL) is a flagship company of the Murugappa Group and
is a subsidiary of E.I.D Parry (India) Ltd, which holds 60.56% of the equity share capital
Target Price (Rs) 624 in the company. CIL is amongst India’s leading agri solutions provider, which operates
in segments like fertilizers, nutrients, etc (88-90% of revenue) and crop protection
Potential Upside 20.7% (10-12%). Besides, the company is well placed in South, East and West India.
Investment rationale
Sensex 41,461
 Strong player in fertilizer market: India is the third largest producer and
Nifty 12,215 consumer of mineral fertilizer globally. Coromandel is the second largest
phosphatic fertilizer player with market share of ~20%. It has manufacturing
capacity of ~4.5 mn tons with utilization level of 85%+. Recently, CIL has added
capacity and commissioned plant in Vizag, which will help in increasing volumes,
Key Stock data higher capacity utilization, meeting demand and building differentiated
value-added products. In addition, products introduced in fertilizer and single
BSE Code 506395 super phosphates segments in last one year have been gaining traction and it has
been reflected in the company’s financials.
NSE Code COROMANDEL
 Increasing focus on non-subsidy business : Fertilizer is a highly regulated sector
Bloomberg CRIN :IN
and hence ~80-82% revenue is through subsidy from government, while remaining
is non-subsidy income. CIL plans to increase revenue from its non-subsidy segment
Shares o/s, Cr (FV 1) 29.3 as well as high margin business, which would be driven by increasing demand,
changing product mix, innovating new products and growing distribution reach.
Market Cap (Rs Cr) 15,099  Support from other segments: CIL operates in other segments such as speciality
nutrients, crop protection and retail, which has been performing well and
3M Avg Volume 175,188 supporting business growth. In Q2FY20, crop protection business remained flat
due to delayed monsoon and shutdown of Sarigram plant. However, it
52 week H/L 528/337 introduced 4 new products and also entered into strategic tie –ups with global
player for future growth. Going forward, along with fertilizers CIL would
continue to focus on improving its offering in crop protection segment.
Shareholding Pattern  Healthier H2FY20: Recovery in southwest monsoon, which ended +10% above
average as compared to 32% deficit at the end of June 2019 resulted in higher
(%) Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 reservoir levels (in south regions) compared to last year. In addition, crop sowing
for Rabi season has been picked up well. Both these factors augur well for the
Promoter 61.7 61.7 61.7 growth of agri and fertilizers companies. CIL is well placed in the sector to take
such opportunity and therefore, we believe CIL’s H2FY20 revenue and margins
FII 4.1 4.3 3.4
would improve on the back of good monsoon and robust crop sowing.
DII 13.8 13.8 15.1 Outlook & Valuation
The Indian fertilizer sector is worth Rs 5,437 bn in 2018 and is estimated to grow at a
Others 20.3 20.2 19.8
CAGR of 12-12.5% and reach Rs 11,116 bn by 2024. The sector growth would be driven
by governments focus towards agri & fertilizer segment, healthy demand scenario,
introduction of new products and stable raw material prices. In addition, government
1 Year relative price performance backed reforms such as doubling the farmer’s income, irrigation infrastructure
development, crop insurance, remunerative returns and income support would further
130
help in improving farming prospects in the coming years. We believe Coromandel is
125 well placed in the sector to capitalize on the opportunity on the back of positive sector
120 outlook, high demand and good monsoon. Coromandel has been a consistent
115 performer and has shown decent growth in H1FY20 results. On operational front, CIL
110
105
has posted robust margin growth led by softening of raw material price and higher
100 volumes. Going forward we estimate revenue/EBITDA/PAT to grow by 7%/9%/17%
95 CAGR respectively over FY19-22E, driven by, improved product mix, capacity addition
90 and higher volumes from fertilizers and crop protection segments. Hence, we
85
80
recommend a Buy on the stock with a target price of Rs. 624.
75
70
Financial Summary - consolidated
Particulars, Rs cr FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
Dec-19
Dec-18

Jun-19
May-19
Apr-19

Oct-19
Jan-19

Mar-19

Aug-19
Feb-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Nov-19

Net revenue 13,225 14,283 14,997 16,046


Coromandel International Ltd Nifty Micap 100 EBITDA 1,443 1,585 1,695 1,845
EBITDAM (%) 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.5
APAT 720 884 1,042 1,140
APATM (%) 5.4 6.2 6.9 7.1
EPS (Rs) 24.6 30.2 35.6 39.0
PE (x) 21.0 17.1 14.5 13.3
RoE (%) 21.5 21.3 20.0 17.9
Source : Company; RBL Research
Electricals Crompton Greaves Consumer Electrical Ltd.

BUY Innovation and branding to aid sustained growth


CMP (Rs) 246 Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals (CGCE) is engaged in manufacturing and
marketing of a wide range of consumer products ranging from fans, light sources and
Target Price (Rs) 299 luminaires, pumps and household appliances such as geysers, mixer grinders, toasters
and irons. CGCE has been the market leader in fans, domestic pumps and street
Potential Upside 21.5%
lighting for over 20 years. It has four manufacturing plants located in Goa, Vadodara,
Sensex 41,461 Ahmednagar and Baddi and its products are available in ~150,000 retail points across
the country.
Nifty 12,215
Investment Rationale
 Consumer Electricals industry growth to remain healthy: The growth
Key Stock data prospects for the consumer electricals industry looks promising on the back of
rising income levels, higher GDP growth and increased government focus on
BSE Code 539876
providing housing for all and electrification of households especially in rural
NSE Code CROMPTON areas. In urban areas, changing consumer preference towards value added
products and premiumization would drive growth for the industry.
Bloomberg CROMPTON:IN
 CGCE to continue to gain market share: Post its demerger, CGCE has
Shares o/s, Cr (FV 2) 62.7 reinvented itself through increased branding efforts with an aim to connect with
Market Cap (Rs Cr) 15,310 young customers. CGCE’s increased focus on innovation and distribution network
has enabled it to enhance its leadership position in the fans and pumps segment
3M Avg Volume 806,386 where the company is a market leader. Further, premiumization of portfolio and
cost reduction initiatives have aided margin improvement of ~150bps over the
52 week H/L 276/192
last three years. We believe positive industry outlook, new product launches,
strong product portfolio and on-going cost optimization measures would enable
CGCE to grow faster than the market.
Shareholding Pattern
(%) Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Outlook & Valuation
Promoter 34.4 34.4 34.4 CGCE is well placed to benefit from rising income levels and government’s increased
focus on housing for all and electrification. Going forward, the company plans to
FII 30.5 28.3 28.1 extend its leadership position in fans, lights and pumps through new innovative
DII 18.9 21.3 22.0 product launches. Further, post achieving success in the geyser and air cooler space,
the company has identified mixers and grinders as new areas of growth. Despite
Others 16.3 16.1 15.6 increased margin pressure from the lighting segment due to increased competitive
intensity and higher input cost, we expect the overall margins to improve on the back
of continuous focus on premiumization and increased cost optimization measures.
1 Year relative price performance The company has delivered strong financial performance since its de-merger with
healthy revenue growth, marked improvement in margin and strong free cash flow
120
generation. Hence, with positive industry outlook and CGCE’s strong product
115
110 portfolio, market leadership in key segments coupled with healthy dividend pay-out
105 ratio (33-36%), lean working capital cycle and high return ratios makes it one of our
100 preferred picks in the sector. We recommend a Buy on the stock with a target price of
95 Rs. 299.
90
85
80
Financial Summary - consolidated
75 Particulars, Rs cr FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
70
Net revenue 4,479 4,882 5,419 5,983
Dec-18

Mar-19

Apr-19

May-19

Aug-19

Dec-19
Jan-19

Jun-19

Jul-19

Oct-19

Nov-19
Feb-19

Sep-19

EBITDA 584 647 732 817


CGCE Nifty Midap 100
EBITDAM (%) 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.7
APAT 401 487 556 625
APATM (%) 9.0 10.0 10.3 10.4
EPS (Rs) 6.4 7.8 8.9 10.0
PE (x) 38.4 31.7 27.7 24.7
RoE (%) 42.5 38.6 34.8 31.5
Source : Company; RBL Research
Oil & Gas Gujarat Gas Ltd.

BUY Volume and profitability led momentum to continue


CMP (Rs) 224 Gujarat Gas Limited (GGL) is one of the leading city gas distribution (CGD) companies.
It operates in 23 districts in the State of Gujarat, Union Territory of Dadra & Nagar
Target Price (Rs) 273 Haveli and some of the Thane Geographical Areas (GAs) including Palghar. In the latest
10th CGD bidding round by PNGRB, GGL has won 6 GAs comprising of 17 cities in
Potential Upside 21.9% Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. GGL has 344 CNG stations and
around 23,200 kilometres of Natural Gas pipeline network. The company caters to
Sensex 41,461 over 13.5 lakh residential consumers, 12,300+ commercial customers and 3,540
industrial units.
Nifty 12,215
Investment Rationale
 Government push for cleaner fuel- a key growth catalyst: The government is
focused on increasing natural gas share in the country’s energy mix from current
Key Stock data 6.5% to 15% by FY30E (world average ~24%). This is likely to reduce reliance on
BSE Code 539336 costly oil imports as well as control pollution as natural gas is a cleaner-burning
fuel. Consequently, it has also been increasing natural gas allocation to CNG (for
NSE Code GUJGASLTD vehicles) and PNG (for domestic, industrial and commercial purpose). Further,
cost effectiveness of CNG (~60%/~40% cheaper than petrol/diesel) and PNG
Bloomberg GUJGA: IN (~40% cheaper vs LPG and almost equal to subsidised LPG prices)) would lead to
increasing use of these fuels, thereby benefitting GGL. Moreover, several
Shares o/s, Cr (FV 2) 68.8 government initiatives such as a) availability of cheaper domestic gas
b) allocation of additional geographical areas (GA) to cover 53% of India’s area
Market Cap (Rs Cr) 15,411 and 70% of its population are likely to lead to strong growth for CGDs including
GGL in the long-term.
3M Avg Volume 810,025
 Increase in penetration and network expansion to drive volumes: GGL
52 week H/L 237/115 typically derives 75-80% volumes from industrial (CNG) segment, while vehicles
(CNG) and PNG- (domestic/household and commercial segments) contribute the
rest. The ban on use of coal gasifiers by National Green Tribunal in India’s largest
Shareholding Pattern ceramic cluster at Morbi, Gujarat this year is likely to add to GGL’s volumes as
Morbi region contributes highest to its industrial volumes and the company is the
(%) Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 sole supplier of natural gas to this area. GGL is also focusing on the growth of
CNG and domestic PNG segments. Hence, GGL is increasing penetration in
Promoter 60.9 60.9 60.9 existing operational areas by increasing PNG connections and through addition
of CNG stations. Further, it has recently been allocated six new GAs in Haryana,
FII 12.8 11.9 12.7 Punjab, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. This shall help the company augment its
DII 3.9 5.4 5.1
presence in the north and west regions of India. For this purpose, the company
has laid out an annual capex plan of ~Rs 500cr for the next few years. Thus, we
Others 22.4 21.7 21.3 expect GGL’s volumes to grow at a CAGR of 16% over FY19-22E.
Outlook & Valuation
GGL boasts of a strong infrastructure and distribution network and enjoys near
1 Year relative price performance monopoly in the Gujarat state. Further, network expansion in other states shall also
boost volumes going forward. The company is likely to deliver robust performance in
180 FY20E as it has witnessed remarkable industrial volumes so far. Further, the company
170
adjusted to new tax regime resulting in writing off of deferred tax liabilities which
160
150
led to ~13x YoY growth in quarterly profits in Q2FY20. Although the growth is likely
140
to taper down in FY21E given higher base of the last year, we expect the company to
130 deliver strong profit CAGR of over 35% during FY19-22E. Moreover, the company has
120 strong return ratios (ROE/ROCE of 21.4%/23.7% by FY22E), healthy cash flows and
110 high interest coverage ratio. Hence, we recommend a Buy on the stock with a target
100 price of Rs 273.
90
80
Financial Summary - consolidated
70 Particulars, Rs cr FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
Dec-18

Apr-19
Mar-19

May-19

Dec-19
Oct-19

Nov-19
Jan-19

Jun-19

Aug-19
Feb-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Net revenue 7,754 10,356 11,148 12,286


Gujarat Gas Nifty Mid-cap 100 EBITDA 985 1,489 1,589 1,739
EBITDAM (%) 12.7 14.4 14.3 14.2
APAT 436 1,063 924 1,044
APATM (%) 5.6 10.3 8.3 8.5
EPS (Rs) 6.3 15.5 13.4 15.2
P/E (x) 35.3 14.5 16.7 14.8
RoE (%) 19.8 33.7 23.3 21.4
Source : Company; RBL Research
Media and Entertainment INOX Leisure Ltd.

BUY On a strong footing


CMP (Rs) 377 Incorporated in 1999 and part of INOX group, INOX Leisure Ltd. (INOX) is the second
largest multiplex chain operator in India. The company’s screen additions have grown
Target Price (Rs) 464 multi-fold over the past 10 years, from 91 screens in FY09 to 598 screens currently
Potential Upside 23.1% (Q2FY20 end) having a wide presence in ~68 cities with seating capacity of 1,40,244. It
has 19% market share of multiplex screens in India and ~11% share of domestic box
Sensex 41,461 office collections. In terms of revenue, the net box office collection (NBOC)
contributes ~58%, Food & Beverages contributes ~26%, Advertising ~10% and other
Nifty 12,215
operating revenue 6%.

Investment Rationale
Key Stock data
 Multiplex industry in a sweet spot: From a highly fragmented space, the Indian
BSE Code 532706 multiplex industry has witnessed massive consolidation in the last five years as
NSE Code
currently the top 4 players constitute ~70% of multiplex screens in India. This has
INOXLEISUR
been led by various M&A transactions and strong organic growth from players
Bloomberg INOL:IN like PVR and INOX. We believe the Indian multiplex industry is in a sweet spot led
by higher penetration of screen per capita, increasing prominence of multiplexes
Shares o/s, Cr (FV 10) 10.3 over single screens, favourable demographics, rapid urbanization and rising
Market Cap (Rs Cr) 3,866 income levels. Further, the content which is the key driver of footfalls for the
industry has become less uncertain as more movies enter the Rs. 100+ cr mark
3M Avg Volume 218,334 due to increased consumer acceptance of movies across genres.
52 week H/L 391/235  INOX well placed to capitalize: INOX has been one of the front runners in the
consolidation of the industry with series of M&A deals and strong organic growth
in the last decade. Going forward, the recent debt reduction provides much
Shareholding Pattern needed room for further screen addition growth as the company looks to
capitalize on growing prominence of multiplexes in India.
(%) Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19

Promoter 51.9 51.9 51.9 Outlook & Valuation


FII 11.3 12.2 12.2 INOX has reported stellar financial performance over FY15-19 with Revenue and PAT
CAGR of 15.8% and 60.7% respectively. In H1FY20, the company’s financial
DII 21.5 19.7 21.2 performance has been impressive with Sales and PAT growth of 30% and 89% YoY.
Others 15.3 16.2 14.8 This has been largely driven by screen additions and consistent rise in revenue share
of high margin F&B and Advertising segment. Further, increased footfalls and higher
spending per head has aided margins and profitability. The reduction in overall debt
levels (0.4x in FY15 to 0.1x in FY19) has also led to lower interest cost for the
1 Year relative price performance
company. Going forward, we believe strong content line-up, rising footfalls,
170
consistent increase in occupancy rate, average ticket price and spend per head augurs
160 well for company’s growth prospects. Hence, we estimate INOX Revenue/EBITDA/
150 PAT to grow at 16.6%/15.7%/21.3% over FY19-22E. Therefore we recommend a Buy
140 on the stock with a target price of Rs. 464.
130
120
110 Financial Summary - consolidated
100
90 Particulars, Rs cr FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
80
Net revenue 1,692 2,048 2,314 2,684
Mar-19

Aug-19
Dec-18

Apr-19

Dec-19
Jan-19

Jun-19

Jul-19

Oct-19

Nov-19
Feb-19

Sep-19

EBITDA 308 370 409 477


Inox Nifty Midcap 100
EBITDAM (%) 18.2 18.1 17.7 17.8
APAT 134 169 196 238
APATM (%) 8.2 8.3 8.5 8.9
EPS (Rs) 13.0 16.5 19.1 23.2
PE (x) 29.0 22.9 19.7 16.3
RoE (%) 17.0 16.1 15.9 16.4
Source : Company; RBL Research
Capital Goods Larsen & Toubro Ltd.

BUY Count on this engineering behemoth


CMP (Rs) 1,301 Larsen & Toubro (L&T) is an engineering, construction, projects, manufacturing and
financial services conglomerate with global operations. It operates in sectors such as
Target Price (Rs) 1,618 infrastructure, construction, defence, hydrocarbon, heavy engineering, power,
Potential Upside 24.4% ship-building, aerospace, electrical & automation, mining & metallurgy. It has seven
key business segments. In H1FY20, infrastructure contributed 47% to its revenues,
Sensex 41,461 followed by hydrocarbon (12%), services (30%), defence engineering (3%), heavy
engineering (2%), power (2%) and others (4%).
Nifty 12,215

Investment Rationale
 Strong order book provides healthy revenue visibility: L&T’s order book at the
Key Stock data
end of H1FY20 stood at Rs 3.03lakh cr., which provides revenue visibility of at
BSE Code 500510 least 2.5 years. Hence, we believe a likely weakness in order inflows in FY20
(conservative order inflow growth guidance of 10-12% YoY due to delay in award
NSE Code LT
of mega projects given economic slowdown) may not weigh on its performance.
Bloomberg LT:IN Further, the project pipeline for medium to long-term is encouraging as it
expects order awards from various segments including core infrastructure,
Shares o/s, Cr (FV 2) 140.3 water, metro rail, railways, roads, power, heavy engineering, defence and
Market Cap (Rs Cr) 182,498 hydrocarbon segments. L&T has guided for potential order pipeline of
Rs 5,20,000cr across these segments. Hence, healthy order book and strong
3M Avg Volume 3,411,629 order pipeline bodes well for its long-term revenue and profit growth.
52 week H/L 1607/1201  Monetization of non-core assets/businesses to improve working capital
cycle and ROE: L&T has been monetizing non-core and non-fungible assets since
the last few years to bring down its working capital and improve ROE. This is also
Shareholding Pattern likely to lead to higher free cash flows. Further, L&T’s ability to execute complex
and large projects has helped it command higher margins and sustain
(%) Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19
profitability even during economic downturn. Going forward too, further
Promoter - - - monetization of assets as well as impending sale of electrical & automation (E&A)
for cash consideration of ~Rs 14,000cr to Schneider will also improve its working
FII 19.0 20.0 19.5 capital and cash flows.
DII 38.6 37.9 37.7
Outlook & Valuation
Others 42.4 42.1 42.7
L&T’s robust order book, strong balance sheet, diversified business portfolio and
execution capabilities are its key strengths and enable the engineering conglomerate
command a premium over its peers. Currently, L&T is trading below its historical
1 Year relative price performance average P/E of over 22x despite delivering healthy growth in challenging economic
120 scenario. This indicates enough headroom for an upside from current levels. We
expect its standalone revenue and profit to grow at a CAGR of ~14% and ~16%
110 respectively over FY19-22E. We have valued L&T on SOTP basis valuing its standalone
business and subsidiaries separately and arrived at a target price of Rs 1,618 per
100
share.

90
Financial Summary - consolidated
Particulars, Rs cr FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
80
Net revenue 86,988 97,426 111,066 127,726
Dec-18

Mar-19

Apr-19

May-19
Jan-19

Jun-19

Aug-19

Dec-19
Oct-19

Nov-19
Feb-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

EBITDA 8,682 9,548 11,107 12,900


L&T Nifty 50
EBITDAM (%) 10.0 9.8 10.0 10.1
APAT 6,203 7,197 8,268 9,582
APATM (%) 7.1 7.4 7.4 7.5
EPS (Rs) 40.8 51.3 58.9 68.3
P/E (x) 31.9 25.4 22.1 19.0
RoE (%) 11.8 15.7 16.6 19.2
Source : Company; RBL Research
BFSI Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management Ltd.

BUY Well placed to capitalize on growing industry trends


CMP (Rs) 342 Incorporated in 1995, Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management Company (RNAM) is
one of the leading AMCs in India with total AUM of ~Rs. 4,530 bn. It is involved in
Target Price (Rs) 419 managing mutual fund (AUM of Rs. 1,886 bn) and managed accounts including
Portfolio Management Services (PMS), Alternate Investment Funds (AIF), Pension
Potential Upside 22.5% Funds and Offshore Funds. Recently, the company announced that Nippon Life
Insurance has completed the acquisition of 75% stake in RNAM (v/s 42.9% earlier)
Sensex 41,461 from Reliance Capital making it the sole sponsor of the AMC. Therefore, ‘Reliance
Mutual Fund’ has now been renamed as ‘Nippon India Mutual Fund’.
Nifty 12,215
Investment Rationale
 Mutual fund industry in a bright spot: India’s mutual fund industry has
witnessed tremendous growth over FY14-19 with QAAUM CAGR of 22% led by
Key Stock data
increased government focus on financial inclusion, increase in financialization of
BSE Code 540767 savings and greater awareness of mutual funds amongst individual investors.
Additionally, benign inflation, low interest rates and low returns in other physical
NSE Code RNAM assets further accentuated the flows into the mutual fund industry. We expect
the growth momentum to continue given its low penetration level (low AUM to
Bloomberg RNAM:IN GDP ratio) as compared to major economies and increasing awareness amongst
investors especially in B-30 cities where the penetration level is considerably low.
Shares o/s, Cr (FV 10) 61.2 Further, despite the recent market volatility, continuous strengthening of SIP
Market Cap (Rs Cr) 21,011
flows, as witnessed in the last three years, augurs well for long and stable
inflows for the industry.
3M Avg Volume 2,39,421
 Strong presence in B-30 cities bodes well for RNAM: RNAM is the fifth largest
52 week H/L 386/128 AMC in India with an AUM market share of ~8.7%. It boasts of strong presence in
the retail segment (26% of AAUM) and its industry leading business share from B
-30 cities (20% of AAUM). We believe RNAM would deliver healthy AUM growth
in the coming years given its wide and diversified distribution network, increased
Shareholding Pattern focus on B30 locations and rising share of equity in its overall AUM which has
increased to 43% in Q2FY20 as against 32% in FY15.
(%) Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19
Outlook & Valuation
Promoter 85.8 75.0 79.3 We continue to remain constructive on the Indian mutual fund industry given its low
FII
penetration level as compared to major economies (11% AUM to GDP ratio v/s world
3.0 7.5 4.6
average of 62%), increase in financialization of savings and continuous strengthening
DII 6.8 7.1 7.1 of SIP flows. Further, the regulatory changes in terms of reduction in total expense
ratio (TER) is not only beneficial for investors due to low cost but would also benefit
Others 4.5 10.4 9.0 larger players like RNAM due to their ability to absorb cost which would lead to faster
consolidation of industry. RNAM’s consistent increase in equity assets, industry
leading retail assets and strong presence in B-30 cities augurs well for the growth
1 Year relative price performance prospects of the company. The consistent increase in monthly SIP book (Rs. 8.5 bn)
would ensure longevity and regular inflows providing stable growth. Currently,
240 RNAM trades at a reasonable discount to HDFC AMC mainly due to internal concerns
220 of RNAM like high exposure to group debt, exit of HNIs that led to loss of market
200 share for the company. However, the buyout by Nippon Life Insurance (75%
180 ownership currently) from Reliance Capital removes the overhang on RNAM. Further,
160 the company has taken several initiatives in order to rebrand and strengthen balance
140 sheet which would help increase consumer confidence and help recover lost market
120
share and thereby would narrow the valuation difference with HDFC AMC. Therefore,
100
we recommend a Buy on the stock with a target price of Rs. 419.
80
60 Financial Summary - standalone
Dec-18

Dec-19
Jun-19
Apr-19

May-19
Jan-19

Mar-19

Oct-19

Nov-19
Aug-19
Feb-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Particulars, Rs cr FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E


AUM (Rs. bn) 2,278 2,369 2,724 3,051
RNAM Nifty Midcap 100
Revenue from operations 1,415 1,557 1,744 1,883
APAT 475 596 676 733
EPS (Rs) 7.8 9.7 11.1 12.0
PE (x) 44.0 35.1 30.9 28.6
RoE (%) 19.5 22.6 23.6 23.3
DPS 6.0 6.4 6.8 7.2
Dividend Payout ratio (%) 77.3 65.7 61.5 60.1
Source : Company; RBL Research
IT Tech Mahindra Ltd.

BUY Digitization and large deals to boost growth


CMP (Rs) 772 Tech Mahindra, a part of the Mahindra Group, is a specialist in digital transformation,
consulting and business re-engineering solutions. As a leading provider of IT solutions
Target Price (Rs) 939 to the telecom industry, Tech Mahindra adds value to client businesses through
well-established methodologies, tools and techniques backed by its stringent quality
Potential Upside 21.6% processes. It has 1,12,800+ professionals across 90 countries, catering to over 900
global customers. The company’s convergent, digital, design experiences, innovation
Sensex 41,461 platforms and reusable assets connect across a number of technologies to deliver
tangible business value and experiences to its stakeholders. Further, its geographic
Nifty 12,215 split of revenue is well balanced across regions, with 47.3% share from the Americas,
29.3% from Europe and 23.4% from the Rest of the World. Industry wise,
a) communication is the biggest contributor to revenues at 41.1%, followed by
b) manufacturing, c) technology, media & entertainment, d) BFSI (Banking, Financial
services & Insurance), e) retail, transport & logistics and f) others at 18%, 8.1%, 13%,
Key Stock data 7% and 12.8% respectively.
BSE Code 532755 Investment Rationale
NSE Code TECHM  Acquisitions to help expand business: Tech Mahindra’s recent acquisitions across
geographies are likely to help the company expand its business and ramp up
Bloomberg TECHM IN growth. Its acquisition of New York based Born Group is expected to further
enhance Tech Mahindra’s capability in digital. Notably, digital revenues contribute
Shares o/s, Cr (FV 5) 96.5 39% to the total revenue and the company aims to take it to 50% in the coming
years. Further, Dynacommerce (acquired in February 2019) and Inter Informatics
Market Cap (Rs Cr) 74,513 Group (IIG) (acquired in 2018) will help the company bolster its capabilities and
presence in Europe. K- Vision, a Japanese corporation which was acquired in March,
3M Avg Volume 2,445,802 2019 provides network services to telecom clients in Japan and will help Tech
Mahindra strengthen its presence in the country’s telecom space.
52 week H/L 847/607
 Strong growth in communication, other verticals to catch up: Tech Mahindra’s
communication segment, which is the biggest contributor to revenues, has been
growing at a healthy pace which has offset the impact of slowdown in BFSI and
manufacturing. Going ahead, huge opportunity in 5G has the potential to drive
Shareholding Pattern further growth in the communication vertical. In addition, recovery in
(%) Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 manufacturing particularly in automobile as well as ramp up in spends by BFSI
sector across the globe shall lead to healthy revenue growth.
Promoter 35.9 35.9 35.9  Large deal wins to bolster revenues: TechM has won a total of US$ 3.7bn worth
of large deals in the last few quarters. In Q2FY20, Tech Mahindra bagged its
FII 38.1 38.9 37.8 largest ever deal of over US$ 1.5bn with AT&T, a leading US telecom provider to
accelerate the latter’s IT network transformation, shared services modernization
DII 12.3 12.0 14.4 and other services. We expect that revenue flow from this deal will start by
Q4FY20. Hence, a healthy deal pipeline indicates towards a strong FY21E for the
Others 13.8 13.1 12.0 company. However, its EBITDA margin may remain under pressure in next couple
of quarters due to the transition of work owing to ramp-up of the large deal.
However, the company should be able to deliver higher margins from FY21
onwards.
1 Year relative price performance
Outlook & Valuation
120
On the IT sector front, an encouraging deal pipeline for most of the IT majors and
optimistic management commentaries on demand outlook as well as margins give us
110
confidence in the Indian IT sector’s growth potential. Tech Mahindra is well placed in
the IT space given its focus on tapping new geographies, strengthening of its
100 digital business and expected recovery in margins in medium to long-term. Further,
the stock trades at an attractive P/E of ~14xFY22E, which is below its 5 year historical
average as well as sector P/E of 18x and 20x respectively. Hence, we recommend a
90 Buy on the stock with a target price of Rs 939.
Financial Summary - consolidated
80
Particulars, Rs cr FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
May-19
Jan-19
Dec-18

Apr-19
Mar-19

Jul-19

Dec-19
Jun-19

Aug-19

Oct-19

Nov-19
Feb-19

Sep-19

Net revenue 34,742 37,000 39,960 43,157


Tech M Nifty 50
EBITDA 6,337 5,920 6,514 7,207
EBITDAM (%) 18.2 16.0 16.3 16.7
APAT 4,298 4,218 4,704 5,319
APATM (%) 12.4 11.4 11.8 12.3
EPS (Rs) 45.2 43.8 48.8 55.2
P/E (x) 17.1 17.6 15.8 14.0
RoE (%) 20.7 18.1 17.9 18.1
Source : Company; RBL Research
Cement The Ramco Cements Ltd.

BUY Capacity expansion holds the key


CMP (Rs) 751 The Ramco Cements Ltd (TRCL) is the flagship company of the Ramco Group, a
well-known business group of South India. It is headquartered at Chennai and is the
Target Price (Rs) 902 most popular cement brand. The company is the fifth largest cement producer in the
country and the main product of the company is Portland cement. This cement is
Potential Upside 20.1% manufactured in eight state-of-the art production facilities that include integrated
Sensex 41,461
cement plants and grinding units with a current total production capacity of 12 million
tons per annum (MTPA). The company also produces ready mix concrete, dry mortar
Nifty 12,215 products and operates one of the largest wind farms in the country.
Investment Rationale
 Positive sector Outlook: Cement sector has posted around 12-15% CAGR in last
Key Stock data 3 years driven by government schemes for housing, new project in infra space
and capacity addition. Currently the cement production capacity in India is
BSE Code 500260 around 480 MTPA out of which south accounts for highest at 160 MTPA,
NSE Code RAMCOCEM
followed by North and Central at 93 MTPA. Further east accounts for 73 MTPA
and west has lowest capacity at 59 MTPA. However, India’s cement consumption
Bloomberg TRCL:IN is low at 67-70%, which is expected to improve, led by increasing demand,
government focus to boost infrastructure & housing sector and stable cement
Shares o/s, Cr (FV 1) 23.6 prices per bag.
Market Cap (Rs Cr) 17,739  Adding capacity and expanding its presence across regions: TRCL has strong
presence in southern and eastern parts of the country with total production
3M Avg Volume 289,254 capacity of 12 MTPA and 90% utilization levels. Currently the company has
52 week H/L 845/556
manufacturing plants in Tami Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal. Going
forward by FY20-21, it has plans to expand grinding capacity in Andhra Pradesh
and Visakhapatnam, Greenfield plant in Odisha and expansion of plant in West
Bengal, which would increase its capacity to 20 MTPA. The total investment
Shareholding Pattern would be Rs. 3,500cr and the company plans to invest major portion through
internal accruals. With these expansions, the company would be largest cement
(%) Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19
manufacturer in the state of Andhra Pradesh with installed capacity of 10 MTPA
Promoter 42.8 42.8 42.7 In addition, capacity addition would help TRCL increase its presence as well as
gain market share in south and east regions.
FII 11.5 12.0 11.7 Outlook & Valuation
DII 26.4 26.3 25.0 Ramco cements is one of the top cement players in south India. The company is well
placed in cement sector and continues its focus on innovating products, better
Others 19.3 19.0 20.6 product mix and improving utilization levels, which will help the company to increase
revenue and margins going forward. However, cement price has been volatile over
past several quarters, which has remained a concern for all players in this space.
1 Year relative price performance Further, these players have taken a price cut due to slow demand and lower
construction activity. Thus in near term we expect muted growth in the sector,
145 however, in the long term we anticipate revival in demand, increase in construction
135 activity and price stabilization/increase per bag. Further, we estimate Revenue/
125 EBITDA/PAT to grow by 15%/16%/19% CAGR respectively over FY19-22E driven by
115
positive sector outlook and government focus on infra and housing schemes which
would lead the company to expand its capacity and gain market share. We have
105
valued TRCL on EV/EBITDA basis. Hence, we recommend a Buy on the stock with a
95 target price of Rs. 902.
85
Financial Summary - consolidated
75
Particulars, Rs cr FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
May-19
Dec-18

Apr-19

Dec-19
Mar-19

Aug-19

Oct-19
Jan-19

Jun-19

Nov-19
Feb-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Net revenue 5,162 5,885 6,768 7,783


The Ramco Cements Ltd Nifty Midcap 100 EBITDA 1,044 1,212 1,414 1,642
EBITDAM (%) 20.2 20.6 20.9 21.1
APAT 507 591 709 849
APATM (%) 9.8 10.0 10.5 10.9
EPS (Rs) 21.5 25.1 30.1 36.0
EV/EBITDA 18.3 16.1 14.0 12.2
RoE (%) 11.2 11.5 12.2 12.7
Source : Company; RBL Research
Research Analysts:
Khadija Mantri khadija.mantri@religare.com
Nirvi Ashar, MBA nirvi.ashar@religare.com
Rohit Khatri, MBA rohit.khatri@religare.com

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