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Religare New Year Picks 2020 From Ranking Trades Technical+
Religare New Year Picks 2020 From Ranking Trades Technical+
The year 2019 was definitely an eventful one for the markets as a number of crucial
events unfolded and new challenges emerged on both global as well as domestic
front. This led to increased volatility in the Indian markets. In terms of performance,
yet again while the benchmark indices remained resilient and scaled new highs, the
broader markets struggled to make a mark and underperformed. This is the second
consecutive year wherein only a few select large caps have outperformed and rightly
so as a number of negative factors outweighed the positive thereby restricting the
rally of broader markets.
In an eventful 2019, the benchmark indices There were a number of factors that worked in favour of the markets through the
scaled new highs however, broader markets course of the year. Firstly, the Union budget (pre-election) bought some relief for
continued to struggle and underperformed individual taxpayers and sops for farmers as the government looked to woo the
voters. And that worked well for the incumbent government as the BJP led NDA
registered a thumping victory in the general election and re-instated faith in market
participants for reform implementation. However, the enthusiasm soon fizzled as the
dwindling economy and some not-so-market friendly measures were announced in
the budget post-election leading the market to slide.
The government and RBI stepped up their game To cap the damage and revive the economy, the government and the RBI stepped up
and came out with several measures to revive their game and announced several measures. Some of the key measures included a
economy and capital markets reduction in corporate tax, easing FDI norms, PSU bank recapitalization, roll-back of
FPI surcharge, special dividend from RBI (Rs. 1.76 lakh cr) to the government and
some sector-specific measures in real estate and Auto. Further, the RBI dovish stance
and cumulative rate cut of 135bps through the year has definitely lifted the
sentiments.
Global markets remained buoyant however Ever since these measures, there was no looking back for the markets as the domestic
India grossly underperformed its peers sentiments turned positive fuelling the rally. Further, the mood in the global markets
also remained buoyant given the US Fed dovish stance, easing trade tensions
between two of the largest economies in the world and reduced uncertainty over
Brexit. Amid all, the Indian benchmark indices underperformed majority of its global
peers in 2019. It was largely expected as slowing economic growth, concerns over
fiscal slippage and the most recent concern of higher inflation restricted the upside
for the markets.
Exhibit 1: Global indices performance YTD
MALAYSIA
INDONESIA
SINGAPORE
KOREA
HONGKONG
NIFTY
UK
SENSEX
CHINA
JAPAN
US DOW
TAIWAN
GERMANY
US S&P
FRANCE
US NASDAQ
Religare Research Team
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
equityresearch@religare.com Source : Investing, RBL Research
+91 - 22 - 67288000
The FIIs turned net buyers in 2019 and Mutual On the fund flow front, the FIIs finally decided to buck the trend of 2018 wherein
Funds continued to pump in money led by steady they were net sellers. In 2019, the FIIs turned net buyers and pumped in nearly
SIP flows Rs. 87,000 cr into Indian equities. The change in the US interest rate trajectory and
several measures by the Indian government to revive the economy resulted in the
buoyant mood of the FIIs. The Mutual Funds too participated in pumping in nearly
Rs. 49,000 cr in 2019 led by a steady SIP inflow of Rs. 8,000 cr.
125,000 FIIs
MFs
100,000
75,000
50,000
25,000
-
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
-25,000
-50,000
-75,000
Source : SEBI, RBL Research
Key factors like declining interest rate, Key factors like declining interest rate, renewed buying interest from FIIs,
government measures and buoyant global government measures and buoyant mood of the global markets resulted in healthy
markets led to Nifty and Sensex ending higher gains for the Indian markets. Consequently, the Nifty and Sensex ended higher by
by 13.8% and 16.3% respectively 13.8% and 16.3%. However, the broader markets continued its decline for the
second straight year as it ended lower by 2.3% and 7.3% respectively. Amongst the
sectors, consistent rate cuts by the RBI and better than expected asset quality
resulted in outperformance by the banking sector. Further, resilient demand in
consumer durables (CD) despite the current slowdown resulted in strong gains for
the CD index. On the losing side, weaker economic outlook both global and domestic
led to a sharp decline in Auto and Metal indices.
Exhibit 3: S&P BSE sectoral indices performance - CY2019 YTD (% change)
BSE Realty
BSE Bankex
BSE IT
BSE FMCG
BSE Health
BSE Power
BSE Auto
BSE Metal
Coromandel
517 624 20.7
International Ltd.
Crompton Greaves 246 299 21.5
Consumer Electricals Ltd.
Investment rationale
Key Stock data Market share gains to continue: Bajaj Auto is one of the prominent players in
BSE Code 532977 India’s motorcycles industry especially in the ‘Entry’ and ‘Premium’ segment. Post
a rough FY18, the company has re-gained its lost market share in the domestic
NSE Code BAJAJ-AUTO motorcycle segment in FY19. However, improved market share has been at the
Bloomberg BJAUT:IN expense of margins due to higher discounts. Nonetheless, going forward we
believe with anticipated demand recovery in the two-wheeler space, Bajaj Auto is
Shares o/s, Cr (FV 10) 28.9
better placed than peers with respect to BS-VI transition due to company’s tie up
Market Cap (Rs Cr) 93,189 with KTM. In the medium term, constant focus on innovation, filling product gaps
and improving consumer experience augurs well for growth prospects.
3M Avg Volume 4,44,691
Exports to continue to grow at a healthy pace: Bajaj Auto is a strong player in
52 week H/L 3,289/2,442
the export market as it constitutes nearly 41% of its overall volumes. In FY19, the
company’s export volumes growth was strong with motorcycles at 21.6% and
commercial vehicles at 43.1%. We expect the growth momentum to moderate
Shareholding Pattern
given the higher base but remain healthy led by faster ramp-up in new markets.
(%) Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19
FII 15.6 14.6 14.1 Bajaj Auto has been one of the outperformers in the entire auto space thanks to its
market share gains in the domestic market and strong growth in exports. We expect
DII 7.4 8.6 9.8 that the outperformance would continue as Bajaj Auto is better prepared for BS-VI
Others 25.8 23.3 22.6 transition. Further, anticipated revival in the auto industry and several new launches
would aid higher growth for the company. On the margins front, we expect the
trajectory to improve going forward due to its tie-up with KTM, and recent
1 Year relative price performance partnership with Husqvarna and Triumph which would help in premiumization.
Therefore, with improving industry growth trends coupled with company’s wide
120
product portfolio and strong brand presence, we expect it to continue its
110 outperformance. Hence, we recommend a Buy on the stock with a target price of
100 Rs. 3,723.
90
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Investment Rationale
Key Stock data
Multiplex industry in a sweet spot: From a highly fragmented space, the Indian
BSE Code 532706 multiplex industry has witnessed massive consolidation in the last five years as
NSE Code
currently the top 4 players constitute ~70% of multiplex screens in India. This has
INOXLEISUR
been led by various M&A transactions and strong organic growth from players
Bloomberg INOL:IN like PVR and INOX. We believe the Indian multiplex industry is in a sweet spot led
by higher penetration of screen per capita, increasing prominence of multiplexes
Shares o/s, Cr (FV 10) 10.3 over single screens, favourable demographics, rapid urbanization and rising
Market Cap (Rs Cr) 3,866 income levels. Further, the content which is the key driver of footfalls for the
industry has become less uncertain as more movies enter the Rs. 100+ cr mark
3M Avg Volume 218,334 due to increased consumer acceptance of movies across genres.
52 week H/L 391/235 INOX well placed to capitalize: INOX has been one of the front runners in the
consolidation of the industry with series of M&A deals and strong organic growth
in the last decade. Going forward, the recent debt reduction provides much
Shareholding Pattern needed room for further screen addition growth as the company looks to
capitalize on growing prominence of multiplexes in India.
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Investment Rationale
Strong order book provides healthy revenue visibility: L&T’s order book at the
Key Stock data
end of H1FY20 stood at Rs 3.03lakh cr., which provides revenue visibility of at
BSE Code 500510 least 2.5 years. Hence, we believe a likely weakness in order inflows in FY20
(conservative order inflow growth guidance of 10-12% YoY due to delay in award
NSE Code LT
of mega projects given economic slowdown) may not weigh on its performance.
Bloomberg LT:IN Further, the project pipeline for medium to long-term is encouraging as it
expects order awards from various segments including core infrastructure,
Shares o/s, Cr (FV 2) 140.3 water, metro rail, railways, roads, power, heavy engineering, defence and
Market Cap (Rs Cr) 182,498 hydrocarbon segments. L&T has guided for potential order pipeline of
Rs 5,20,000cr across these segments. Hence, healthy order book and strong
3M Avg Volume 3,411,629 order pipeline bodes well for its long-term revenue and profit growth.
52 week H/L 1607/1201 Monetization of non-core assets/businesses to improve working capital
cycle and ROE: L&T has been monetizing non-core and non-fungible assets since
the last few years to bring down its working capital and improve ROE. This is also
Shareholding Pattern likely to lead to higher free cash flows. Further, L&T’s ability to execute complex
and large projects has helped it command higher margins and sustain
(%) Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19
profitability even during economic downturn. Going forward too, further
Promoter - - - monetization of assets as well as impending sale of electrical & automation (E&A)
for cash consideration of ~Rs 14,000cr to Schneider will also improve its working
FII 19.0 20.0 19.5 capital and cash flows.
DII 38.6 37.9 37.7
Outlook & Valuation
Others 42.4 42.1 42.7
L&T’s robust order book, strong balance sheet, diversified business portfolio and
execution capabilities are its key strengths and enable the engineering conglomerate
command a premium over its peers. Currently, L&T is trading below its historical
1 Year relative price performance average P/E of over 22x despite delivering healthy growth in challenging economic
120 scenario. This indicates enough headroom for an upside from current levels. We
expect its standalone revenue and profit to grow at a CAGR of ~14% and ~16%
110 respectively over FY19-22E. We have valued L&T on SOTP basis valuing its standalone
business and subsidiaries separately and arrived at a target price of Rs 1,618 per
100
share.
90
Financial Summary - consolidated
Particulars, Rs cr FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
80
Net revenue 86,988 97,426 111,066 127,726
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