Input -->

Drivers

Selected case 1

Inflation
Expected long-term inflation Italy (annual) 1%
Expected long-term inflation Vietnam (annual) 3%

Price of production (in EUR)

Price of production in Italy 15,500
Price of production in Vietnam 11,000

Estimated initial investment (in EUR)

Best case 320,000,000
Base case 350,000,000
Worst case 380,000,000

Useful life (years) 10

WC Italy
DIO 25
DPO 30
Net Trading Cycle (days) -5

Financing facilities
Senior Facility (EUR) 200,000,000
Interest rate Senior Facility 5%
Repay Senior Facility in 10 years
Use as much debt as possible;

Loan schedule 0 1 2 3 4
Repayment % 0% 0% 5% 10% 10%

Covenant 1
Production should not be less than 15,000 per year.
Otherwise penalty of $1,000,000 per year.

Tax rate 30%

Residual value of the project 100,000,000

 5 6 7 8 9 10
10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
Workings -->
Savings forecast

Best volume 22,000

Base volume 20,000
Worst volume 18,000

Volume (in units) 1 2 3 4 5

Best case 18,700 19,140 19,580 20,240 19,800
Base case 16,000 17,000 17,400 18,000 17,600
Worst case 13,500 14,400 14,760 15,120 14,940
Selected case 18,700 19,140 19,580 20,240 19,800

Productivity (as a %)
Best case 85% 87% 89% 92% 90%
Base case 80% 85% 87% 90% 88%
Worst case 75% 80% 82% 84% 83%

Expected long-term inflation Italy 1%

Expected long-term inflation Vietnam 3%

Price of production (EUR)

Price of production in Italy 15,500 15,655 15,812 15,970 16,129
Price of production in Vietnam 11,000 1,330 11,670 12,020 12,381
Savings per unit 4,500 4,325 4,142 3,950 3,749

Total savings (EUR)

Best case 84,150,000 82,780,500 81,093,507 79,941,290 74,255,552
Base case 72,000,000 73,525,000 72,064,710 71,094,033 65,978,268
Worst case 60,750,000 62,280,000 61,130,754 59,718,988 56,006,553
Selected case 84,150,000 82,780,500 81,093,507 79,941,290 74,255,552
 6 7 8 9 10
19,580 19,140 18,700 18,480 18,260
17,400 17,000 16,600 16,400 16,200
14,760 14,400 14,040 13,860 13,680
19,580 19,140 18,700 18,480 18,260

89% 87% 85% 84% 83%

87% 85% 83% 82% 81%
82% 80% 78% 77% 76%

16,291 16,454 16,618 16,784 16,952

12,752 13,135 13,529 13,934 14,353
3,539 3,319 3,089 2,850 2,600

69,286,590 63,525,413 57,773,378 52,664,453 47,469,001

61,572,353 56,422,780 51,285,458 46,736,852 42,113,791
52,230,341 47,793,414 43,376,376 39,498,339 35,562,757
69,286,590 63,525,413 57,773,378 52,664,453 47,469,001