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Module 1
Discounted cash flows

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Discounted cash flows overview

The time value of money Calculating present values Annuity and perpetuity

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The basic idea

What would you be willing to pay today, to receive a cash flow in the future?

Present value (PV)


> Future value (FV)

Time

1. Opportunity
2. Risk
3. Inflation

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The discount rate

The discount rate is also referred to as the rate of return.


This rate is expressed as a percentage.

Discount rate

Present value (PV)


= Future value (FV)

Present value (PV)


= Future value (FV)

Discount rate
-20%

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The time value of money

Which is more valuable to you?

$100 today $100 in one year’s time

1. Opportunity
2. Risk
3. Inflation

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The time value of money

At a 10% interest rate, $100 today is financially equivalent to $133.10 in three years

Today Year 1 Year 2 Year 3


$100 $110 $121 $133.10

Indifferent

Interest rate of 10%

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The formula for time value of money

PV x (1+r)n = FV

Today Year 1 Year 2 Year 3


$100 $110 $121 $133.10

x (1 + r)

Interest rate r Numbers of years n

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The formula for time value of money

PV x (1.10)n = FV

Today Year 1 Year 2 Year 3


$100 $110 $121 $133.10

x (1.10) x (1.10) x (1.10)

Interest rate r Numbers of years n

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The formula for time value of money

PVPV x (1+r)1 nto=3 FV


x (1.10) = FV

Today Year 1 Year 2 Year 3


$100 $110 $121 $133.10

x (1.10)3

Interest rate r Numbers of years n

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Time value quiz

If you were able to earn interest at 5% and you started


with $100, how much would you have after 2 years?

A. $110 C. $90.25

B. $105 D. $110.25
Compounding and discounting

Compounding

PV x (1+r)n = FV

Discounting
1
PV = FV x 𝑛𝑛
1+𝑟𝑟

Discount factor

Rate of return r Numbers of years n

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Net present value

Year 0 1 2 3
Cash flows -1000 400 600 200

Discount
0.9091 0.8264 0.7513
factors @10%

-1000.00

1
Discount factor = 𝑛𝑛
1+𝑟𝑟

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Net present value

Year 0 1 2 3
Cash flows -1000 400 600 200

Discount
0.9091 0.8264 0.7513
factors @10%

-1000.00
363.64
495.87
150.26
9.77

1 1
Discount factor
Positive NPV = = = 0.8264
1+𝑟𝑟 𝑛𝑛
1+.10 2

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NPV demonstration
NPV analysis exercise

• You can find these links on the attachment tab

1. Open the NPV exercise with instructions

2. Open the NPV solution for results

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Annuities introduction

Equal payments, over equal time periods,


guaranteed for a fixed number of years

Year 1 Year 2

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Understanding annuities

Equal payments, over equal time periods,


guaranteed for a fixed number of years

Today $100 $100 $100

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

Interest rate of 10%

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Understanding annuities

Equal payments, over equal time periods,


guaranteed for a fixed number of years

Discount Cash Present


factor flow value
Year 1 0.9091 100 90.91

Year 2 0.8264 100 82.64

Year 3 0.7513 100 75.13

248.69

1
Interest rate of 10% Discount
Discountfactor
factor= =1+.10
1+𝑟𝑟 1𝑛𝑛𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡 3

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The annuity factor

Equal payments, over equal time periods,


guaranteed for a fixed number of years

Discount
factor
Year 1 0.9091

Year 2 0.8264 2.4869

Year 3 0.7513 x 100

2.4869 248.69

Annuity factor

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Annuity quiz

The discount factor for an annuity rises from 10% to 12%.


This increases the value of the annuity.

T F
Interest rate per year
No. of years 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%
1 .990 .980 .971 .962 .952 .943 .953 .926 .917 .909
2 1.970 1.942 1.913 1.886 1.859 1.833 1.808 1.783 1.759 1.736
3 2.941 2.884 2.829 2.775 2.723 2.673 2.624 2.577 2.531 2.487
4 3.902 3.808 3.717 3.630 3.546 3.465 3.387 3.312 3.240 3.170
5 4.853 4.713 4.580 4.452 4.329 4.212 4.100 3.993 3.890 3.791

6 5.795 5.601 5.417 5.242 5.076 4.917 4.767 4.623 4.486 4.355
7 6.728 6.472 6.230 6.002 5.786 5.582 5.389 5.206 5.033 4.868
8 7.652 7.325 7.020 6.733 6.463 6.210 5.971 5.747 5.535 5.335
9 8.566 8.162 7.786 7.435 7.108 6.802 6.515 6.247 5.995 5.759
10 9.471 8.983 8.530 8.111 7.722 7.360 7.024 6.710 6.418 6.145

11 10.37 9.787 9.253 8.760 8.306 7.887 7.499 7.139 6.805 6.495
12 11.26 10.58 9.954 9.385 8.863 8.384 7.943 7.536 7.161 6.814
13 12.13 11.35 10.63 9.986 9.394 8.853 8.358 7.904 7.487 7.103
14 13.00 12.11 11.30 10.56 9.899 9.295 8.745 8.244 7.786 7.367
15 13.87 12.85 11.94 11.12 10.38 9.712 9.108 8.559 8.061 7.606
Annuity demonstration
Annuity exercise

• You can find these links on the attachment tab

1. Open the Annuity exercise with instructions

2. Open the Annuity solution for results

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Perpetuities

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

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Perpetuities

Examples:
1. War loans: UK bonds with no redemption date
2. Real estate: income received from rent

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 …



Perpetuity types:
Constant perpetuity and growing perpetuity Present value = 0

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Perpetuity example
r = 10%
Year 1 Year 2

$100 $110 $100 $110 $100 …

$10 $10

$𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏
PV = $100 =
𝟎𝟎.𝟏𝟏

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Constant perpetuity

It is possible to calculate the PV


of the a cash flow which in perpetuity

𝒄𝒄 𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏
PV = = = 100
𝒓𝒓 𝟎𝟎.𝟏𝟏

Cash flow c

Rate of return r

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Growing perpetuity

A growing perpetuity is an infinite stream


of cash flows, that grows at a constant rate

𝒄𝒄
PV =
(𝒓𝒓−𝒈𝒈)

Cash flow c

Rate of return r

Constant growth rate g

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Perpetuity demonstration
Prize draw exercise

• You can find these links on the attachment tab

1. Open the Prize draw exercise with instructions

2. Open the Prize draw solution for results

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Discounted cash flows conclusion

Money received today is Single cash flows, annuities


Use the discount factor to
worth more than an and perpetuities can all be
find the present value of a
equivalent amount received calculated using DCF
future cash flow
in the future framework

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Module 2
Bond pricing and yields

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Bond pricing and yield overview

Use discounted cash Calculate yields used to Examine the


flows to find the price assess the return from relationship between
of a bond a bond bond price and yield

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Bonds

“ A bond is a debt instrument


requiring the issuer (also called the
debtor or borrower) to repay to the
lender/investor the amount borrowed
plus interest over some specified
period of time.

Source: Frank Fabozzi
Bond Markets Analysis & Strategies

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Bonds

• Vanilla bonds pay a fixed amount of interest to the bond investor at regular time intervals

• Convertible

• Callable MATURITY DATE


30 SEPTEMBER, 2022. 10% COUPON
PAID SEMIANNUALY

• Inflation-linked

• Zero coupon

• Floating rate

• Fixed rate

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Valuing a bond

To find the price of a bond, we follow these steps:


1. Determine the future cash flows from the bond
2. Find the present value of each future cash flow
3. Sum all of the present values to find the current price

Par value Number of years

Coupon rate Yield to maturity

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Forecasting cash flows

$100

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

$10 $10 $10 + $100


$110

Coupon rate of 10%

Yield to maturity of 9%

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Par value

A bond's par value is the amount returned


To price a bond, we always assume par of $100
to the bond investor by the issuer

$5000 bond $1000 bond

$100 par value Value at $100


x50 x10

Price of 1 bond Price of 1 bond

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Coupon rate and yield to maturity

$100

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

$10 $10 $10

Coupon rate of 10%

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Coupon rate and yield to maturity

The yield to maturity is the overall return


the bond investor makes if they purchased
the bond today and held it to maturity

$100

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

$5 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5

Coupon rate of 10%

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Quiz

If you own a $5,000 par amount bond paying an 8%


coupon semi-annually, how much interest would you
receive every 6 months?

A. $100 C. $800

B. $400 D. $200
Setting up the cash flow

Year 0 1 2 3
Cash flows 10 10 110

Discount
0.9174 0.8417 0.7722
factors @9%

9.17
8.42
84.94
102.53

1 11
Yield to maturity of 9% Discount factor = 𝑛𝑛 = = 0.8417
1+𝑟𝑟 1+.09 21 to 3

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Annual bond demonstration
Annual bond exercise

You can find these links on the attachment tab

1. Open the Annual bond exercise


with instructions

2. Open the Annual bond solution


for results

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Semi annual bond cash flows

For semi annual coupons, we adjust the interest recieved,


discount factor, and number of periods

$100

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

$10 $10 $10

Coupon rate of 10% /2 = 5%

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Semi annual bond cash flows

For semi annual coupons, we adjust the interest recieved,


discount factor, and number of periods

$100

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

$5 $5 $5 $5 $5 $5

Coupon rate of 10% /2 = 5%

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Semi annual bond yield to maturity

With semi annual bonds, we need to adjust the YTM


in the discount factor equation, for semi annual payments

Divide the yield to maturity by 2

Earnings per time period of 5%

Coupon rate of 10%

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Semi annual diagram of cash flow

Year 1 2 3 4 5 6
Cash flows 5 5 5 5 5 5
105
Discount
0.9569 0.9157 0.8763 0.8386 0.8025 0.7679
factor @4.5%

4.78
4.58
4.38
4.19
4.12
80.63
102.57

𝟏𝟏 𝟏𝟏
Discount factor = 𝒏𝒏 = 𝟑𝟑 = 0.8763
𝟏𝟏+𝒓𝒓 𝟏𝟏+.𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎

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Quiz

What is the discount factor for a semi-annual coupon


that will be received in 18 months if the quoted
annual yield to maturity is 10%?

A. 0.7513 C. 0.9070

B. 0.8668 D. 0.8638
Semi annual bond demonstration
Semi annual bond exercise

You can find these links on the attachment tab

1. Open the Semi annual bond exercise


with instructions

2. Open the Semi annual bond solution


for results

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Yield to maturity

The yield to maturity is the overall return the bond investor


earns upon buying the bond today at it's current price

It is made up of two components:


1. Income in the form of coupons
2. Capital gains or losses depending on whether
the bond is trading at a premium or discount

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Break down of YTM
Yield to maturity = coupon + capital gain/loss

Today

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

$100 $5 $5 $5 + $100
< Par $105

Yield to maturity of 8%

Coupon rate of 5%

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Bond prices and yield
There is an inverse relationship between the price of a bond and its yield to maturity.

Three year bond with a 10% coupon

Yield Price
9% 102.53
10% 100.00
11% 97.56

Yield Price

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Bond prices and yield
There is an inverse relationship between the price of a bond and its yield to maturity.

Three year bond with a 10% coupon

Yield Price
9% 102.53
10% 100.00
11% 97.56

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Bond prices and yield
There is an inverse relationship between the price of a bond and its yield to maturity.

Three year bond with a 10% coupon

Yield Price
9% 102.53
10% 100.00
11% 97.56

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Quiz

Given a yield to maturity of 9% and a coupon rate of


12%. What is the bond trading at?

A. A premium C. Par

B. A discount
YTM and current yield

Current yield is the return we get from


the income component of a bond
as a percentage of it's current price

Three year bond with a 10% coupon

𝐂𝐂𝐂𝐂𝐂𝐂𝐂𝐂𝐂𝐂𝐂𝐂 𝐫𝐫𝐫𝐫𝐫𝐫𝐫𝐫 𝟏𝟏𝟎𝟎


= = 9.75%
𝐏𝐏𝐏𝐏𝐏𝐏𝐏𝐏𝐏𝐏 𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏.𝟓𝟓𝟓𝟓

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Relationship between yields

Premium

Coupon Rate
> Current Yield
> YTM

Par

Coupon Rate
= Current Yield
= YTM

Discount

Coupon Rate
< Current Yield
< YTM

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Bond pricing and yields exercise

You can find these links on the attachment tab

1. Open the Bond pricing and yields


exercise with instructions

2. Open the Bond pricing and yields


solution for results

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Bond pricing and yield conclusion

A bond is a debt instrument The price of a bond is the


that the issuer pays back at par sum of the present values of
value with interest/coupons all future cash flows

The yield to maturity of a The current yield is the


bond is the overall return annual income from a bond
earned by the bond investor as a percent of its price

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Module 3
Key statistical skills

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Key Statistical skills overview

Calculate different Calculate variance and


Smooth data using
measures of central standard deviation to
moving averages
tendency measure dispersion

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Measures of central tendency

Measures of central tendency are used to find the middle/center of a distribution

Centre

x xx x xx xx x x x x

1 2 3 4 5

The mean is the most common


1. Arithmetic mean
2. Weighted mean
3. Expected values

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Arithmetic mean

This is the most common type of number averages

The mean of: {1, 5, 4, 8, 2}

∑𝒙𝒙 𝟏𝟏 + 𝟓𝟓 + 𝟒𝟒 + 𝟖𝟖 + 𝟐𝟐 𝟐𝟐𝟐𝟐
= = = 4
𝒏𝒏 𝟓𝟓 𝟓𝟓


Mean or average 𝐱𝐱

Number of data n

Sum of the data ∑

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Weighted mean

When some numbers in a data set should have larger influence,


we assign higher weights

Weight 12 11 10 … 1
Dec Nov Oct … Jan

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WACC

The capital structure at Buyout Inc.

$6m of equity with a cost of equity of 12%


$2m of mezzanine finance with a cost of debt of 8%
$2m of senior debt with a cost of debt of 6%

What would the WACC for Buyout be?

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Quiz

What would the WACC for Buyout Inc. be?


$6m of equity with a cost of equity of 12%
$2m of mezzanine finance with a cost of debt of 8%
$2m of senior debt with a cost of debt of 6%

A. More than 12% C. 8%

B. More than 8% but less than 12% D. Less than 8% but more than 6%
WACC equation

The capital structure at Buyout Inc.

Weight
$6m equity 0.6 = 6m / 10m = 0.6 x 0.12 = 7.2%
$2m mezzanine 0.2 = 2m / 10m = 0.2 x 0.08 = 1.6%
$2m senior debt 0.2 = 2m / 10m = 0.2 x 0.06 = 1.2%
$10m 10.0%

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Expected values
Expected values are applied to many business situations
and are similar to weighted averages

Future outcomes Probability


x 23%
x 11%
x 16%
x 37%
x 13%
100%

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Expected values demonstration
Expected values exercise

You can find these links on the attachment tab

1. Open the Expected values exercise


with instructions

2. Open the Expected values solution


for results

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Moving averages

Time series data is simply data collected over time

The two types of moving average we cover are:


• Simple moving average
• Weighted moving average

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Simple moving average

Simple moving average is the average price of a security


over a specific number of periods

3 days

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

5 days

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

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Simple moving average

Simple moving average is the average price of a security


over a specific number of periods

3 days

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

5 days

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

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Simple moving example

Last 10 days 3 day MA 5 day MA


5
6
7 6.0
8 7.0
8 7.7 6.8
9 8.3 7.6
7 8.0 7.8
6 7.3 7.6
5 6.0 7.0
4 5.0 6.2

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Quiz

Calculate a three-day moving average for the price of


stock for Thursday

Day Closing Price


Monday $50.00
Tuesday $52.00
Wednesday $54.00
Thursday $54.50
Friday $60.00

A. $53.50 C. $54.50

B. $54.25 D. $56.17
Weighted moving average

A weighted moving average is a moving average


where more important values are weighted more heavily

Closing Price Weight


Day 5 5
Day 4 4
Day 3 3
Day 2 2
Day 1 1

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Weighted moving example

Last 10 days 3 day WMA


5 x1
6 x2
7 x3 6.3
8 7.3
𝟕𝟕 × 𝟑𝟑 + 𝟔𝟔 × 𝟐𝟐 + 𝟓𝟓 × 𝟏𝟏 𝟑𝟑𝟑𝟑
8 7.8 = = 6.3
𝟑𝟑 + 𝟐𝟐 + 𝟏𝟏 𝟔𝟔
9 8.5
7 7.8
6 6.7
5 5.7
4 4.7

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Weighted moving average demonstration
Moving Average exercise

You can find these links on the attachment tab

1. Open the Moving Average exercise


with instructions

2. Open the Moving Average solution


for results

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Measures of dispersion

Measures of dispersion tell us how spread out a set of data is

X
The three common measures are:
• Range
• Variance
• Standard deviation

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Range

Range is very simple to calculate. However it is


not an accurate measure of dispersion because
it doesn’t take into account extreme values.

Range = Highest value – Lowest value

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Variance

Variance is a measure of dispersion of set of


data points around their mean value.
We use this as a measure of an asset's risk.


∑ 𝒙𝒙𝒊𝒊 − 𝒙𝒙 𝟐𝟐

𝒏𝒏

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Variance example


∑ 𝒙𝒙𝒊𝒊 − 𝒙𝒙 𝟐𝟐
Frequency

𝒏𝒏

X
X X
X X X X X X
X X X X X X X X X X X

Negative Positive Salaries

Mean (x)

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Quiz

A company employs four people whose weekly wages


are $200, $220, $240, and $260. The mean and variance
respectively is:

A. 230 and 500 C. 225 and 667

B. 230 and 230 D. 230 and 667

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Population versus sample variance

When a population is too large to measure we take


a sample instead. This means we may not have the very
smallest or the very largest values in our sample.


∑ 𝒙𝒙𝒊𝒊 − 𝒙𝒙 𝟐𝟐

𝒏𝒏 − 𝟏𝟏

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Standard deviation

The standard deviation is more accurate than the


variance because it is in the same units as the mean


∑ 𝒙𝒙𝒊𝒊 − 𝒙𝒙 𝟐𝟐

𝒏𝒏 − 𝟏𝟏

Variance (units) = $2

Standard deviation (units) = $

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Variance v.s. standard deviation

Variance = $ 500
2

Standard deviation = $22.36

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Mean and standard deviation demonstration

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Mean and standard deviation exercise

You can find these links on the attachment tab

1. Open the Mean and standard deviation


exercise with instructions

2. Open the Mean and standard deviation


solution for results

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Key statistical skills conclusion

Measures of central tendency The moving average is the


tell us where the middle/average mean of data over time, used
of the data is to smooth data

Measures of dispersion are The most important measures


used to find out how spread of dispersion are the variance
out the data is and standard deviation

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Module 4
Covariance, correlation and regression

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Covariance, correlation and regression overview

Use regression analysis to


Use correlation and covariance How to measure the
describe the relationship
to describe the relationship strength of our
between dependent and
between two variables regression analysis
independent variables

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Relationship between variables

x x x x x x
x x x x x
x x x
x x x x x x x
x x
x x x x x
x x x xx x
x x x x
x x x x x

Perfect Perfect
Positive None Negative
positive negative

How do the variables move in relation to each other?


How much do the variables co-vary?
How strong is the relationship between them?

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Covariance and correlation

The
We use
variance
the
units ofstandard
is measured
correlation
the deviation
inare
units
because
notthat
coefficient
covariance are
thenot
because
easily itunits
is 2 are
intuitively
squaredand
precise rooted
understood obvious
andbecause
unitless
similar therefore
measure
to they
more
areaccurate
between
the variance in -1.0
unitsandsqared
1.0

2
∑ 𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖 −𝑥𝑥̅
Variance =
𝑛𝑛−1

2
∑ 𝑥𝑥𝑖𝑖 −𝑥𝑥̅
Standard deviation =
𝑛𝑛−1

Covariance = Imprecise units

Correlation coefficient = Unitless

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Covariance

Oil (x) Oil stock (y) (x – μx) (y – μy) (x – μx) (y – μy)


45 26 9 6 54
39 27 3 7 21
33 20 -3 0 0
31 16 -5 -4 20
32 11 -4 -9 36

36 avg. 20 avg. avg. 26.2

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Calculating the covariance

Oil (x) Oil stock (y) (x – μx) (y – μy) (x – μx) (y – μy)


45 26 9 6 54
39 27 3 7 21
33 20 -3 0 0
31 16 -5 -4 20
32 11 -4 -9 36

36 avg.
= μx 20 avg.
= μy Covariance
avg.
= 26.2

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Drivers of covariance

When two variables move together


we call it positive correlation

When two variables move in opposite


directions we call it negative correlation

The drivers of covariances are:

1. Do the variables move together in positive correlation, or in


opposite directions showing negative correlation?

2. How dispersed are the y and x variables from their means?

Covariance = Correlation x S.D.(x) x S.D.(y)

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Quiz

How would you interpret positive covariance?

A.
A. If
If X
X is
is above
above it's
it's mean,
mean, then
then Y
Y C.
C. No
No linear
linear relationship
relationship exists
exists
is
is also
also above
above it's
it's mean
mean between
between the
the two
two variables
variables

B.
B. If
If X
X is
is below
below it's
it's mean,
mean, then
then Y
Y
is
is also
also above
above it's
it's mean
mean

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Correlation

Covariance = Correlation x S.D.(x) x S.D.(y)

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Correlation

The correlation coefficient is a dimensionless number


that is always between -1.0 and +1.0

Covariance
Correlation coefficient =
S.D.(x) x S.D.(y)

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Correlation

Oil (x) Oil stock (y) (x – μx) (y – μy) (x – μx) (y – μy)


45 26 9 6 54
39 27 3 7 21
33 20 -3 0 0
31 16 -5 -4 20
32 11 -4 -9 36

36 = μx 20 = μy Covariance = 26.2

5.29 = S.D. 6.03 = S.D.

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Correlation

Oil (x) Oil stock (y) (x – μx) (y – μy) (x – μx) (y – μy)


45 26 9 6 54
36 = μx 20 = μy Covariance = 26.2
39 27 3 7 21
5.29
33 = S.D. 6.03
20 = S.D. -3 0 0
31 16 -5 -4 20
32 11 -4 -9 36

Covariance
26.2
Correlation coefficient
0.82 =
S.D.(x)
5.29 x S.D.(y)
6.03

Correlation coefficient = r or ρ

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Correlation

The coefficient of 0.82 is very close to a perfect positive correlation (+1.0)


Therefore, we call this a strong positive correlation

Strong positive Covariance


26.2
Correlation coefficient
0.82 =
correlation S.D.(x)
5.29 x S.D.(y)
6.03

Correlation coefficient = r or ρ

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Covariance and correlation demonstration

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Wal-Mart and S&P exercise

You can find these links on the attachment tab

1. Open the Wal-Mart and S&P exercise


with instructions

2. Open the Wal-Mart and S&P solution


for results

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Regression analysis

Regression analysis is used to predict the behaviour of


the dependent variable based on the fluctuations of
the independent variable
Income

The 3 basic steps:


1. Plot the data
2. Perform regression analysis
3. Interpret the results
Years of experience

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Simple linear regression

Wal-mart

y=α + βx + ε

S&P500

Distance2 Summing each of these together is known as


ordinary least squared regression, or OLS regression

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The regression equation

The regression analysis gives us a line where the dependent


variable (y) is predicted by the independent variable (x)

y = a + b(x) + ε y = α + βx + ε Yi = b0 + b1xi + εi

Dependent Independent

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Sum of squares

Sum of Square
Sum ofSum
Regression
Square
of Square
Errors Total
Distance2

SSR + SSE = SST

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Sum of squares

Wal-mart

y = 0.358x – 0.0006

Avg. return = 0.1%


S&P500

Distance2
Sum of Square
Sum ofSum
Regression
Square
of Square
Errors Total

SSR + SSE = SST

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R squared and the correlation coefficient

R2 is the fraction of the dependent


variable that is explained by the independent variable

R2 = explained variation / total variation


R2 = SSR / SST
R2 = (correlation coefficient)2

If the R2 equals 1 then, same as the correlation, it means


that the variables are in perfect positive correlation

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Regression demonstration

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Target exercise

You can find these links on the attachment tab

1. Open the Target exercise with instructions

2. Open the Target solution for results

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Covariance, correlation and regression conclusion

The covariance measures the Simple linear regression


Correlation makes
variance of two random analyzes the relationship
interpreting the covariance
variables measured in the between independent and
easier
same time period dependent variables

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