Safety Science 49 (2011) 664–669

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Safety Science
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ssci

Reliability estimation of auxiliary ventilation systems in long tunnels

during construction
S.E. Jalali a,⇑, S.F. Forouhandeh b
a
Faculty of Mining Eng., Petroleum and Geophysics, Shahrood University of Technology, Shahrood, Iran
b
Mathematical Dept., Shahrood University of Technology, Shahrood, Iran

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Ventilation system should blow large quantity of airflow particularly in case of toxic or explosive gasses
Received 7 July 2010 emission from the wall rocks and face, especially in long tunnels. In these cases, multiple jet fans are usu-
Received in revised form 30 December 2010 ally required, so that they could be grouped together as serial, parallel or combined arrangements
Accepted 31 December 2010
through ventilation system or equally spaced along the tunnel. There is a serious requirement to have
Available online 12 February 2011
some reserved jet fans along with the main once, so that the operation of the ventilation system could
be reliable. Operation of a ventilation system is usually evaluated by experiences and engineering judg-
Keywords:
ments which follow empirical methods.
Ventilation
Reliability
The aim of this paper is to introduce an approach to evaluate reliability of ventilation system in the long
Long tunnels tunnels. The method is based upon using the failure rate time to determine the probability of the failure
Stochastic process of an active jet fan and also the repair rate time to determine the probability of repairing the out of work
Markov chains ones .In this approach, the active and standby jet fans are modelled as a stochastic process. Therefore, the
probability of replacing each failed jet fan with a standby jet fan is estimated using Markov Chains theory
.From this point of view a more realistic decision-making for the number of standby jet fans and also
reducing the risk as well as uncertainties can be based upon the analysis of such a results.
Ó 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
While a long tunnel is driving, a high pressure ventilation sys-
tem is necessary to eliminate a large amount of friction loss. More-
over, since such tunnels are usually excavated using TBM, the
ventilation system should blow large quantity of airflow particu-
larly in case of toxic or explosive gasses emission from the sur-
rounding rocks. However, it might not be possible to provide
such pressure and airflow only using one jet fan. In these cases,
multiple jet fans are required to be grouped together in serial, par-
allel or combined arrangement through ventilation or equally
spaced along the tunnel.
The number of jet fans that should be installed in a multiple
unit is commonly determined by considering the necessary airflow
and pressure losses. Beside those jet fans, some standby jet fans
should be prepared to ensure that the airflow could be reached al-
most everywhere which is needed continually.
⇑ Corresponding author. Address: Faculty of Mining Eng., Petroleum and
Geophysics, Shahrood University of Technology, 7-tir Sq., Shahrood, Iran. Fax: +98
273 333 5509.
E-mail addresses: Jalalisme@Shahroodut.ac.ir (S.E. Jalali), F.Forouhandeh@Shah-
roodut.ac.ir (S.F. Forouhandeh).
All of the standby jet fans are characterized in the same manner
as the main jet fans, namely, they could be immediately replaced
by the unserviceable jet fans. Under these circumstances, the re-
placed standby jet fans are used as long as the unserviceable jet
fans are under repairing process. It is very important to express
the necessity of sufficient number of stand by jet fans in order to
obtain a calculated tuned airflow in an expected confidence
interval.
Up to now, the empirical methods have been widely used to
estimate the number of standby jet fans in the case of long tunnel
ventilation. In this method the number of standby jet fans is
defined as a percent of the number of main jet fans. Since the
empirical methods are solely formed basing on experiences and
engineering judgments, hence the prediction of reliability of the
ventilation system can be under a serious objection. On the other
side, the reliability should be determined in order to ensure that
there is not considerable decreased in airflow, whenever working
jet fans are unable to do their function.
Applying a probabilistic approach, reliability of the ventilation
system may be evaluated considering; firstly, the number of the
main jet fans, secondly, the probability of the failure of a working
main jet fan and finally the probability that an unserviceable jet fan
might be under repair. The second and the third items depend,
mainly on the jet fan brand and its characterization, supply and

0925-7535/$ - see front matter Ó 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2010.12.015
 S.E. Jalali, S.F. Forouhandeh / Safety Science 49 (2011) 664–669
maintenance operations, safety level considerations and also
unpredictable factors, which introduce different types of uncer-
tainties. Base upon these facts, it seems evident that an issue of this
nature, having probability characteristics, should be analysed using
the probabilistic methods since the deterministic methods are not
sufficient to consider such uncertainties in a proper way; further-
more, they may yield to incorrect results.
A critical survey in this field indicates that, no certain method
has been presented for evaluation of the reliability for the ventila-
tion system. Despite this, several methods (e.g. statistical model-
ling and Mont Carlo simulation) have been already used for
similar issues such as estimation of the standby machines for the
transport fleet (Jalali et al., 2008).
In this paper a statistical approach based on Markov chains the-
ory has been introduced to evaluate the reliability of the ventila-
tion system in Zagros long tunnel. As it is shown in the
conclusions of this paper, the results are very close to the obvio-
used real condition experienced by the contractor teams, up to
the time being. The achievements of this paper can be used as a
methodology for other activities in the similar cases. So far, a sim-
ilar method was presented to predict confidence interval for the
availability of the standby (reserve) stopes in the underground
mining using Markov chains (Jalali et al., 2008).
2. Methodology
In this paper, a Markov chain reliability analysis is proposed
based on the principles of stochastic process, which is supported
by mathematical rules. In the probability theory, a stochastic pro-
cess, given the present state, depends only upon the current state,
i.e. it is conditionally independent of the past states (the path of
the process) given the present state which can be applied to the
random behavior of system that varies discretely or continuously
with respect of time and space. The discrete case generally is
known as a Markov chain and Markov process is generally known
for the continuous one. A Markov chain is a special case of Markov
process. It is used to study the short-run and long-run behavior of
certain stochastic system (Taha, 1992). It is important to remember
one role with Markov analysis, namely, that the probabilities of
changing state are dependent only on the state itself (Smith, 2001).
As mentioned earlier, outcomes of successive observation of
some characteristics of a certain population may be represented
by Markov chain process. This is the case when an engineer at-
tempts to evaluate reliability of a ventilation system in a tunnel.
In deed, the aim of the presented methodology is to introduce an
approach to evaluate reliability of the ventilation system in the
long tunnels using failure rate to fail a working jet fan and repair
rate to repair an unserviceable jet fan. Therefore, as it was men-
tioned earlier, having two kinds of information is necessary; the
number of the working jet fans, standby ones and those which
are under repair, and the second type of information is the knowl-
Descriptions
Working jet fans
Standby jet fans
Serviceable jet fans m+s
Unserviceable jet fans
Replaced standby jet fans
Fig. 1. Illustration of the different states paces.
665
edge about the probabilities of the events. That is, knowing the
probability of the event that a working jet fan is not able to do
its function (as a failure rate), and also the probability of repairing
an unserviceable one, and finally, the probability that an unservice-
able jet fan to be under repair (as a repair rate).
As it seems, this method is based on a mathematical proof and
is distinguished from the alternative ones, such as empirical meth-
ods. Based on the above assumptions, the working and standby jet
fans are modelled as a stochastic process. The reliability of the ven-
tilation system is then estimated using Markov chains theory in
which the probability of failure or a repair is not dependent on
the past history of the system.
The results of such analyses can be used as a basis for decision-
making about the sufficient number of standby jet fans. It also re-
duces the risk of occurrence of the lack of necessary airflow as well
as uncertainties.
Regarding the described methodology, suppose that a ventila-
tion system in a long tunnel, consists of ‘‘m’’ installed main jet fans
as working ones and ‘‘s’’ standby jet fans in which m is greater than
or equal to s. In case of failure of each working jet fan, a standby jet
fan will be replaced and continue to work as long as the unservice-
able one is under repair process. This process is defined as a se-
quence of trials such that, each one of m main jet fans (in the case
of failure) is replaced by anyone of s standby jet fans, individually.
The process will be run forward until all of the s standby jet fans
are replaced by s out of m main jet fans and will be run in the back-
ward direction when an unserviceable jet fan is repaired. Moreover,
there are possible situations (states of process) for which the num-
ber of unserviceable jet fans succeed the number of standby jet fans.
Obviously, the quantity of the airflow will decrease in such cases,
however; the aim is to avoid the occurrence of these events, by
designing a correct number of standby jet fans, and subsequently
a proper management of the cost in an effective way.
The explained states above then form a stochastic process. Fig. 1
illustrates an example of the state spaces of such system. The first
state (S1) shows a condition in which all m main jet fans are work-
ing (serviceable) and none of the standby jet fans has been used. In
the second state (S2), one of the main working jet fans has been
failed and a standby jet fan has been replaced for it. Clearly in this
state, there are m-1 main jet fans still working as before and one
standby jet fan has been immediately replaced to function as a ser-
viceable one. If the failed jet fan (unserviceable) is repaired, and no
other working one fails meanwhile then the system will be turned
back to the previous state; otherwise, it will be remained in the
same state or in case of more casualties it will go to the next states.
This process will be continued until all of the serviceable jet fans
(including main jet fans and the replaced standby ones) are failed.
In this circumstance, there is no standby jet fan left to be replaced
for the unserviceable ones. Therefore, the system may remain in
the final state which has been shown as Sf state in Fig. 1. Fig. 2 illus-
trates a description of the process moving back and forth.
States
S1 S2 S3 Sf-1 Sf
m m m 1 0
s s-1 s-2 0 0
m+s-1 m+s-2 1 0
0 1 2 m+s-1 m+s
0 1 2 r s
666 S.E. Jalali, S.F. Forouhandeh / Safety Science 49 (2011) 664–669

According to the method statement prepared by the contractor,

State No.: S1 a huge amount of airflow, 45 m3/sec, is approximately necessary to
Working jet fans m dilute the hydrogen sulphide gas.
Standby jet fans s A double lines forced ventilation system was designed in which
Serviceable jet fans m+s each line enjoys a two high power jet fan units equally spaced
along the line. Fig. 3 shows the ventilation lines and location of
Unserviceable jet fans 0 the jet fans, schematically.
Replaced standby jet fans 0 According to the client and contractor agreement, the contrac-
tor has provided four jet fans as main fans and also two jet fans
as standby fans.
The client has supplied 2.5 MW reliable electricity power pro-
State No.: S2 vided by the global power network of Iran that could be mainly
Working jet fans m consuming in TBM and Jet fans. Moreover, the contractor has in-
Standby jet fans s-1 stalled an emergency power plant including some diesel genera-
tors that they can totally provide 750 KW electricity power.
Serviceable jet fans m+s-1 Therefore, the probability of the shortage of power for the jet fans
Unserviceable jet fans 1 is either negligible or it approaches to zero.
Replaced standby jet fans 1 The prior experiences of the contractor reveals that, it could be
assumed that each new jet fan, regarding its brand which has been
deliberately selected for this particular project, might be statisti-
cally failed 10 days out of 360 active days of a year. Therefore,
State No.: S3 the probability of failure of each new jet fans must be equal to
Working jet fans m 10/360 and at the same time the probability of its complement
Standby jet fans event is equal to (350/360).
s-2 On the other side, the failed jet fans should be immediately re-
Serviceable jet fans m+s-2 paired. The repair period is usually varied between 1 and 3 weeks.
Unserviceable jet fans 2 Presumably, by considering an average of 14 days for repair period,
Replaced standby jet fans 2 it is possible to calculate the probability of repairing each failed jet
fan based on a conditional probability function. Consequently, the
:
probability of repairing might be considered as 14/360 and its
complement 346/360.
Since the ventilation lines were inspected and maintained by a
: special staff and specialists, the probability of the lack of ability
that the components of the lines (i.e. ducts, flanges, cassette and
State No.: Sf-1 . . .) to do their functions, particularly for a long period of time, is
Working jet fans 1 negligible.
Standby jet fans 0
Serviceable jet fans 1 4. Reliability analysis
Unserviceable jet fans m+s-1
Replaced standby jet fans In this section, stochastic process is used to model and analyze
r ventilation system in the Zagros long tunnel using Marko chains. In
the next steps, the reliability of the ventilation system will be
estimated.
State No.: Sf There are seven state spaces for this system. Table 1 shows
the different stages. As this table shows in the first state (S1)
Working jet fans 0 all main jet fans are active and none of the two standby jet fans
Standby jet fans 0 are in use. In the second state (S2), one of the main jet fans has
Serviceable jet fans 0 been failed and a standby jet fan has been replaced for it. In the
Unserviceable jet fans third state, two main jet fans have been failed and replaced by
m+s
two standby jet fans. At last, the fourth last states indicate the
Replaced standby jet fans s situations where, there are more than two main jet fans that
have been failed and no available standby one is left to be re-
Fig. 2. An example of state spaces of the described system.
placed for them.
The mentioned states (S1 to S7) produce a Markov chain and
hence the probability of transition of the system from one state
3. Ventilation system in Zagros long tunnel
to alternative states can be calculated. In order to illustrate the
procedure of calculations, let’s see what happens when the sys-
In this research, the Zagros water conveyance long tunnel lo-
tem goes from state one to state two, namely (S1 to S2) .It simply
cated in the west of Iran is studied. The Zagros tunnel with the
means that one of the main jet fans has been failed and one
length of 24 km is divided into two parts. The part No. 1 with the
standby jet fan has been replaced for it. The probability of this
length of14 km shall be studied in this paper. The tunnel is driving
event, may be calculated by binominal distribution function as
by a double shield TBM. This part of the tunnel is driven through
below:
some strata hydrogen sulphide gas, which is particularly dis-
charged between the middle and the end of the tunnel. Therefore,    3  
4 350 10
there is a serious problem to ventilate the face of the long tunnel P12 ¼ PðS1 ! S2 Þ ¼   ¼ 0:102 ð1Þ
(Basic design of Zagros tunnel, 2008). 1 360 360
 S.E. Jalali, S.F. Forouhandeh / Safety Science 49 (2011) 664–669 667

14 km

TBM

LEGEND
Jet Fan
Fresh Air
Exhaust Air
H 2S Emission

Fig. 3. A sketch of ventilation system in Zagros project.

   
Table 1 4 3503  10 1 2 3460  14 2
is  . The middle part of the fig-
Possible states for the ventilation system. 1 360 360 2 360 360

States Serviceable jet fans Standby jet fans Unserviceable jet fans ure shows another way of getting the same result, namely, two
of the working ones failed but one of the unserviceable ones get re-
S1 4 2 0
S2 3+1 1 1
paired and back to the system. This probability can be computed as
   
S3 2+2 0 2 4 3502  10 2 2 3461  14 1
 . And finally the rest part of the
S4 3 0 3 2 360 360 1 360 360
S5 2 0 4 figure shows the situation where both of the unserviceables get re-
S6 1 0 5
S7 0 0 6
paired and back to the system. When three of the working ones
failed the probability of this event is
   
4 3501  10 3 2 3462  14 0
 . These probabilities should be
3 360 360 2 360 360
Obviously, P12 is the probability of going from state one to state
added together to gain P 34 .
two and it also stands for the second entry in the first row of tran-
According to the described calculations, it is now possible to ar-
sition matrix. It should be noted that the probability of occurrence
range the transition matrix. This is a square matrix, in which each
of the failure event and the probability of the repairing simulta-
row is a fixed probability vector that shows the probability of tran-
neously, should be multiplied.
sition of the system from a certain state to an alternative state of
It is also evident that the transition probability of the states
the system. For example, the first row is a vector which its entries
from S1 to up to S7, should obey the rules of Markov chain analysis;
indicate the probabilities of transition of the state S1 to the alterna-
namely, the sum of the probabilities in one row must be 1:
tive states, including S1 itself; hence, the probability of the event S1
X
7 to S1, namely P11, appears in the first entry of the first row, where
Pij ¼ 1 for j ¼ 1; 2; : . . . ; 7 ð2Þ P1j appears in the jth column of the first row meaning the probabil-
i¼1 ity of the event S1 to Sj and so on. The following matrix illustrates
Table 2 gives an example of the computation of the probabili- the transition matrix constructed for the system using Pij s, as the
ties for all entries in the third row of the transition matrix. entries explained earlier.

Fig. 4 illustrates the logic of calculations in PðS3 ! S4 Þ, as an
example. In S3, there are four working jet fans and two unservice-
able ones. In S4, there are three working ones and three unservice-
able. Now the left part of the figure indicates the event that one of
the working ones becomes unserviceable and the two previous
unserviceable are still out of work. The probability of this event
The entry Pij in the transition matrix P is the probability of the
event, so to speak, when the system goes from state Si to the state
Sj in one step. Thus, the entry Pnij should be considered as the
probability that the system changes from state Si to the state Sj
in exactly n-steps. These new numbers, such as P nij will arrange
the entries of a matrix Pn , so called n-step transition matrix. The
668 S.E. Jalali, S.F. Forouhandeh / Safety Science 49 (2011) 664–669

Table 2
Computational procedure for each P3j.
           
P31 4 350 4 10 0 2 346 2 14 0
     þ ð0:044519Þ ¼ 0:867021
4 360 360 2 360 360
P32    4  0    1  1            
4 350 10 2 346 14 4 350 3 10 1 2 346 1 14 1
     þ      þ ð0:02967Þ ¼ 0:104
4 360 360 1 360 360 1 360 360 2 360 360
P33                            
4 350 4 10 0 2 346 0 14 2 4 350 3 10 1 2 346 1 14 1 4 350 2
     þ      þ 
4 360 360 2 360 360 1 360 360 1 360 360 2 360
       
10 2 2 346 2 14 0
    þ ð0:0074Þ ¼ 0:02
360 2 360 360
P34    3  1    0  2            
4 350 10 2 346 14 4 350 2 10 2 2 346 1 14 1
     þ     
1 360 360 2 360 360 2 360 360 1 360 360
           
4 350 1 10 3 2 346 2 14 0
þ      þ ð0:0074Þ ¼ 0:0084
3 360 360 2 360 360
P35    2  2    0  2    1        
4 350 10 2 346 14 4 350 10 3 2 346 1 14 1
     þ     
2 360 360 2 360 360 3 360 360 1 360 360
           
4 350 0 10 4 2 346 2 14 0
þ      ¼ 0:000013
4 360 360 2 360 360
P36    1  3    0  2
4 350 10 2 346 14
     ¼ 0:00000013
3 360 360 2 360 360
P37    0  4    0  2
4 350 10 2 346 14
     ¼ 0:0000000001
4 360 360 2 360 360
P7
j¼1 P 3j ¼ 0:999434

+ +

Fig. 4. Illustration of all possible deferent ways that the system can move from state three to state four.

probability distribution of the process wears off as the number of

Table 3
Number of days that the system will be remained in the Si states. steps of the process increases. Furthermore, every sequence of
probability distributions approaches the fixed probability vector f
States Probability Days out
of F, called the stationary distribution of the Markov Chains.
of 360
Main jet fans Standby jet fans In this particular situation the matrix F, has been formed by P4,
All the main jet fans are None of the standby jet 0.8896 320 indicating a very quick convergence.
working fans is used
One of the main jet fans One of the standby jet 0.1954 38
is failed fans is used
Two main jet fans are All the standby jet fans 0.0049 2
failed are used
More than two main jet There is no available 0.0002 0
fans are failed standby jet fans

following matrix is the rounded form of the preceding matrix P.

The numbers have been rounded to 4-desimal places.
On the other hand, the stationary state of the Markov Chain can
alternatively be obtained by solving the following system of
equations:
8
< ½a1 ; a2 ; . . . ; a7   P ¼ ½a1 ; a2 ; . . . ; a7 
>
P7 ð3Þ
: ai ¼ 1
>
i¼1

Where for each i, ai is the probability of the event that the sys-
tem remains in the state Si. Now solving the system of the equa-
tions for the transition matrix, the values of a1 up to a7 will be
the same as the values of a fixed row in the stationary matrix F.
The sequence of n-steps transition matrices P n approaches to
Here are the values:
the matrix F, which its rows are each the unique fixed probability
vector f; hence, the probability P nij that Sj occurs for sufficiently a1 ¼ 0:8896 a2 ¼ 0:1054 a3 ¼ 0:0049 a4 ¼ 0:0002
large n is independent of the original state Si and it approaches
a5 ¼ a6 ¼ a7 ¼ 0
the component fj of F. Thus the effect of initial state or the initial
 S.E. Jalali, S.F. Forouhandeh / Safety Science 49 (2011) 664–669
The mentioned values may be multiplied by the number of the
working days (360 days per year). The results have been shown in
Table 3. According to the results, the confidence interval for avail-
ability of at least one standby jet fan equals to 99.4% (i.e. 360–
2 = 358 days).
The result of the above analysis can be used in decision-making
for the right chose of the number of standby jet fans with the aim
of obtaining the right level of airflow. For example, in such cases,
based upon these results, there is not a day in a year such that
the system would face the failure of all stand by jet fans. This
emplifies that the system with two stand by jet fans is extremely
reliable.
5. Conclusions
This paper proposed an approach to evaluate the reliability of
ventilation system in a long tunnel. Such approach is based on
the principles of stochastic processes and benefits from a mathe-
matical proof. From this point of view, it opens a new window to
predict the confidence interval for the availability of a standby
jet fan when an active jet fan is failed. It is highly distinguished
from the alternative methods such as the empirical methods.
669
In the proposed method, the availability of standby jet fans can
be determined using the number of main jet fans and standby jet
fans, the probability of failure and repair of each active jet fan
which can be obtained using historical data of the ventilation sys-
tem. The results of the analysis can be used as an input data for
other activities in the similar cases.
Applying the suggested method in this paper and given data
based on the real conditions reports from contractors, there is no
evident of any failure for duration of 358 day out of 360 working
days per year, pointing out the prepared ventilation system is very
reliable, as it is convinced by the general observation along with
field investigations.
References
Basic Design of Zagros Tunnel, 2008. LAAR Consultant Engineers, Iran.
Jalali, S.E., et al., 2008. Prediction of Confidence Interval for the Availability of the
Reserve Stopes in the Underground Mining Using Markov Chains. Presented in
5th International Conference and Exhibition on mass mining, Lulea, Sweden, pp.
285–290.
Smith, D.J., 2001. Reliability, Maintainability and Risk, Practical Methods for
Engineer. Macmillan Education Ltd.
Taha, H.A., 1992. Operation Research, an Introduction. Macmillan Publishing
Company, New York.