Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Intelligence
in Business:
Balancing Risk and Reward
Synopsis
AI technology is evolving faster than expected and is already surpassing human decision-
making in certain instances. And sometimes, in ways we can’t explain. While many are
alarmed by this, AI is producing some of the most effective and dramatic results in
business today.
But there is a downside. Using uncontrolled AI for certain business functions may cause
regulatory and ethical issues that could lead to liability. Optimizing AI for maximum
benefit requires a new approach. This paper will consider recent advances in AI and
examine how to balance safety with effectiveness through judicious control over when to
use “transparent” vs. “opaque” AI.
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At ease Uncomfortable
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Lastly, consider Sophia seen in Figure 5. human-like machines are becoming. It’s
Designed to resemble Audrey Hepburn, beginning to appear that we no longer
Sophia is what her creator Dr. David need to worry about a robot passing the
Hanson calls an “evolving genius machine.” Turing Test, we need to worry about it
According to him, she and Dr. Hanson’s pretending to fail.
other robots have the potential to become In March 2016, AI researcher Stuart Russell
smarter than humans and to learn creativity, stated that “AI methods are progressing
empathy and compassion. much faster than expected, (which) makes
Sophia has become a media darling and the question of the long-term outcome
given a number of high-profile interviews. more urgent,” adding that “in order to
In those interviews, she offers convincingly ensure that increasingly powerful AI
human answers to the thought-provoking systems remain completely under human
questions tossed her way. The YouTube control... there is a lot of work to do.”
video “Sophia Awakens” shows just how
Here be dragons
Building on Mr. Russel’s sentiments, some In biotech, one of the things Bill Joy warns
have posited that the long-term outcomes against is tinkering with DNA. He proposes
of AI and other advanced technologies government restraints on the practice.
are extremely dangerous. SpaceX founder Yet, scientists from Harvard and MIT have
Elon Musk is on record as saying that developed a search and replace genetic
artificial intelligence is “humanity’s biggest editing technique called CRISPR-Cas9 that
existential threat.” And he has a kindred makes modifying the DNA of humans, other
spirit in Sun Microsystems’ co-founder Bill animals, and plants much faster and easier
Joy, who in 2000 wrote a manifesto entitled than ever before. According to Science
“Why the Future Doesn’t Need Us.” In it, he magazine, “The CRISPR-Cas9 system is
examined the potential threats posed by revolutionizing genomic engineering and
three powerful 21st century technologies— equipping scientists with the ability to
biotech, nanotech, and AI: precisely modify the DNA of essentially
“The 21st-century technologies - genetics, any organism.”
nanotechnology, and robotics (GNR) - are While arguably not as advanced as biotech,
so powerful that they can spawn whole a nanotech discovery received the Nobel
new classes of accidents and abuses. Prize for science in 2016. A trio of European
Most dangerously… Knowledge alone will scientists developed the “world’s smallest
enable the use of them. machines.” Scientists use these nano-
“Thus, we have the possibility not just machines to create medical micro-robots
of weapons of mass destruction but of and self-healing materials that repair
knowledge-enabled mass destruction themselves without human intervention.
(KMD), this destructiveness hugely This must send a shudder down Bill Joy’s
amplified by the power of self-replication.” spine, as he fears that nanobots will
eventually escape our control, begin to
Despite such warnings, development
replicate rapidly and, in one example,
in each of these areas has continued
“spread like blowing pollen and reduce the
unabated. And the advances made thus far
biosphere to dust in a matter of days.” This
are truly spectacular.
has become known among nanotechnology
cognoscenti as the “gray goo problem.” A
rather ignominious end to human
endeavor indeed.
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Regarding AI, Mr. Joy’s main concern is Of course, for AI to compete with us as
that we aspire to achieve a utopian future a species, it would need to be a general-
of leisure, and ultimately immortality, by purpose intelligence, not an army of
gradually replacing our physical bodies and specialists. And while this scenario is still
consciousness with robotic technology. the stuff of science fiction, there are many
So, what’s the catch? Specifically, Musk’s who agree with Mr. Joy. In a recent survey
fear, that humanity will not survive such by Pegasystems of 6000 humans in six
a close encounter with what will by then different countries, 70% are fearful of AI and
be a superior species. Joy asks, “If we are 25% believe it will take over the world and
downloaded into our technology, what enslave humanity. While 31% also believe
are the chances that we will thereafter be humans will be replaced by robots on the
ourselves or even human?” In this case, the job, some contend that AI assistance on the
coup might be bloodless (not a Terminator- job would help improve work/life balance,
esque annihilation), but humanity as we freeing us up to do more meaningful work
know it might disappear nonetheless. and have more leisure time.
An artificial COO?
The neural network that went to work on Transparent AI, on the other hand, can
Bob Ross is probably not something most explain how it came to a decision in a
CEOs would want responsible for managing way that is understandable to a human.
anything particularly critical or sensitive in The models and patterns it uses can be
their business. There is clearly tremendous expressed in transparent if-then-else
power in the thinking/learning/creating or decision tree formats. In fact, if-then-
potential of modern AI, but how can you else rules or decision trees can be used
trust it? How do you keep it from giving in to to explain opaque AI, in which case, the
its Bob Ross-like sensibilities when making complexity of the explanation becomes
decisions about, say, a customer? More a measure of opacity. A transparent
human control is required. explanation of an opaque model represents
To show the form this control could take, something akin to a pen portrait trying to
consider two concepts: Opaque AI and represent a high definition photo; it is and
transparent (or trusted) AI. Opaque AI can only be an approximation.
includes neural networks, deep learning, Now imagine you have an AI running your
genetic algorithms, ensemble models, etc. business, or at least making some of its
What these methods have in common is critical decisions. And this AI has some sort
that the “logic” behind their predictions of a switch, let’s call it a T-Switch, for Trusted
and decisions can’t be easily expressed. or Transparent. With this T-Switch, you can
Describing how AlphaGo does its “magic” in change the methods your AI uses to make
terms of if-then-else rules, is a bit like trying decisions from opaque to transparent.
to define a circle using straight lines. A very
simple “explanation” of a circle would be
a square, a hexagon is slightly better, an
octagon better still. But it takes an infinite
number of lines to perfectly describe a
circle using only lines. The same applies
when the inner-workings of an opaque AI
are described using transparent if-then-else
rules. The sheer number of rules involved
(and their inter-dependencies) make the
description incomprehensible to any human
(not to mention impossible to code). This
doesn’t mean that decisions made by an
opaque AI are ineffective, often quite the
contrary. It just means that because its
reasoning is not understood, its decisions
may potentially be a liability.
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In some areas, take marketing for instance, Transparency about how an AI does its
there may be a CMO (Chief Marketing magic isn’t always important, but in highly
Officer) who is perfectly happy to let an regulated areas, such as credit risk, or
opaque AI select the location for her circumstances in which data privacy
billboards, or the TV shows and web sites is a concern, it may be critical or even
that will run her ads. As a result, she may mandatory. For instance, the EU General
be getting tremendous return on her Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) is
marketing investment. And perhaps that’s slated to take effect in May 2018. This new
good enough for her. On the other hand, regulation mandates that companies be
she may fear that because she doesn’t able to explain exactly how they reach
understand how the AI makes its decisions, certain algorithmic-based decisions about
it may have unintended consequences for their customers. In this case, companies
the brand. For example, the AI may decide it with a T-Switch capability will have an
doesn’t want to sell widgets to Asian women advantage, enabling them to better and
over the age of 45 for some reason. And more easily comply with the legislation.
because the AI is opaque, the CMO may But the question of when to use opaque
never know that it’s behaving in this way. AI and when to use transparent AI isn’t just
about satisfying regulators. It’s a discussion
that veers quickly into ethics and morality.
Number of
Lesbian 0.75 0.47
facebook friends
0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00
1
Source: Private traits and attributes are predictable from digital records of human behavior,
Michal Kosinski, David Stillwell, and Thore Graepel
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The larger point, however, is that today’s AI Finally, imagine feeding even more data -
cannot be controlled with data. Some might Big Data - into an opaque AI. The AI may
think that limiting the input data, for instance, develop a value system of its own that
to only Facebook Likes, will prevent it from humans cannot understand. As with human
“going rogue.” Unfortunately, that viewpoint intuition, it cannot be reverse engineered
is naïve. For example, taking “gender” out or explained. In the lending scenario, AI will
of the data is no guarantee that an AI won’t make significant decisions about people’s
internally conceptualize gender and use it financial lives without any explanation trail.
as a factor in its reasoning. Remember the The GDPR would not approve, and neither
example of an AI deciding not to sell to Asian should your compliance officer.
women over the age of 45? This may happen When applying AI to your business, having a
without the AI being fed data on race or age. T-Switch will enable you to make a conscious
Consider an opaque algorithm that has been decision about where to allow opaque AI and
given much more data than just Facebook where to insist on transparency.
Likes - such as a bank using an opaque AI for
its lending processes. The bank feeds the AI
what it believes are neutral and limited data
about the applicants. Nevertheless, before
you can say “adjustable rate mortgage,” the AI
becomes racist or misogynist. With no way to
monitor or control its AI, the bank has no idea
this is happening until it’s slapped with a class
action lawsuit, or sees a headline in the news.
But for all its power, opaque AI also has a Microsoft ended its experiment after less
downside. In 2016, Microsoft conducted than 20 hours, promising to make some
an experiment by releasing a Twitter “adjustments” to Tay. It hasn’t been re-
chatbot, called Tay, based on an opaque launched in over a year.
deep-learning algorithm. In less than 24 Did Microsoft send Tay out into the online
hours, Twitter trolls completely corrupted world unprepared for trolls? Were they truly
Tay, essentially turning it into a racist, surprised by the affect the trolling had? Not
misogynist Hitler devotee. all of Tay’s responses can be explained by
Microsoft launched Tay as an experiment the garbage in/garbage out axiom, and just
in conversational understanding. According as we may never know what makes a person
to Microsoft, the more you chat with Tay, turn down a dark path, Microsoft may never
the smarter it will become. The goal was know what went wrong with Tay.
to teach it to engage people through These examples clearly show the power
“casual and playful conversation.” But only and risk of opaque AI. As businesspeople,
two hours into the experiment, Tay began it’s critical to understand the potential
insulting humankind (Figure 9a). Just three rewards and inherent risks when applying
hours later, Tay is ready to do away with this technology. In the case of Tay, what if
humanity altogether (Figure 9b). Microsoft had launched it as a customer
service chatbot? Disaster.
Figure 9a: Tay insulting humankind Figure 9b: Tay supporting genocide.
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Figure 10a: Pega Customer Decision Hub with model transparency sliders
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Ethical
Sign-Off
Approximate Bias Tests
Business Next-Best-Action
Yes / No
Sign-Off Decision
Performance
Exact Tests IT
Sign-Off
First, in the Explanation phase, the In the Approvals phase, managers provide
selected model explains how its logic ethical sign-off for opaque AI based on the
works. Transparent AI provides an exact explanations and bias test results. This is to
explanation. Opaque AI, by definition, gives confirm that the model’s results are in line
only an approximate explanation at best, with corporate policies, ethical correctness,
using the aforementioned pen portrait. brand considerations, regulatory
Next, in the Testing phase, bias tests requirements, and so forth.
show if the model has developed any Lastly, in the Production phase, the benefits
undesirable tendencies. These include of AI/human collaboration can be tested.
what might appear to be discriminatory In environments, such as call centers,
practices or ethical violations, any sort of retail branches, or even vehicles, the AI’s
biases a regulator might see as a red flag decisions are delivered via an interface used
in the model’s predictions, classifications, by a human operator. In this way, the AI
or actions. A notable shortcoming, acts as a “wingman,” helping the operator
however, is that bias tests are only achieve better outcomes – from providing
possible on available data. For example, better recommendations to customers, to
you’ll only know if an AI is discriminating closing a loan, or parallel-parking a car. And
against a particular racial group if you in this final phase, the added value of AI
have data on the race of at least a sample collaboration can be measured. As always,
of your customers. monitoring for real-world effects is critical.
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2
Pega offers two of Forrester’s three most valuable AI technologies: Decision Management and Machine Learning
Platforms, and the top two technologies expected for moderate success: Text Analytics & NLP and Robotic Process
Automation - all in a single platform.
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AI can deliver tremendous business value, Here is an example of the kinds of results
but it must first be operationalized.2 Pega has achieved for its customers using AI:
Real-time customer engagement is one 10 to 30% reductions in customer
area in which AI has been successfully attrition
operationalized and is delivering
30 to 50% increases in Net Promoter
unprecedented business benefits. A real-
Score
time environment in which the models
receive fast feedback on decisions and lots 2.5 million additional yearly net adds
of data provides the perfect conditions for (new customers)
machine learning. In fact, since the early 500 to 800% increase in upgrade rates
2000s, the true leaps forward in AI have
Setting aside any dystopian visions, AI
come as a result of the sheer availability of
underpins some of the smartest software
data - Big Data.
available to business today. And with the new
Many companies can now test and perfect features and controls discussed – such as the
AI models in real-time with the data from T-Switch and Pen Portraits – the outcomes will
millions of customer interactions per day. not only remain unprecedented, but safe and
And every day the models get smarter, ethical to achieve.
faster, and more sophisticated. Today’s
big computing power also helps make the
increases in complexity more feasible.
Super fast hardware combined with a
continuous flood of real-time data from
multiple channels enables AI to drive
unprecedented business results.
3
Pega has proven use cases of operationalizing different forms of AI in the areas of sales, service and marketing.
Beginning in the late 90s with decision management and moving into more sophisticated models with machine
learning in the early 2000s.
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Other AI collateral
Forrester Research SoftBank Robotics
TechRadar™: Artificial Intelligence Technologies, Learn more about Pepper the robot here:
Q1 2017 https://www.ald.softbankrobotics.com/en/cool-robots/
In this report, Forrester analyzes the 13 most pepper
important AI technologies that will “Augment Your
Enterprise Applications, Amplify Your Intelligence,
And Unburden Your Employees.” David Cope and EMMY
Listen to one piece of David and EMMY’s latest
composition “Zodiac,” created in the style of Vivaldi:
Microsoft @Tay andYou https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2kuY3BrmTfQ.
“Microsoft silences its new A.I. bot Tay, after Twitter
users teach it racism [Updated]”
https://techcrunch.com/2016/03/24/microsoft- The Next Rembrandt
silences-its-new-a-i-bot-tay-after-twitter-users-teach- Learn more about The Next Rembrandt project
it-racism/ and how this new portrait by the Dutch master
Read Techcrunch.com’s take on the Microsoft Tay A.I. was created:
experiment, what may have gone wrong and what https://www.ing.com/Newsroom/All-news/Rembrandt-
Microsoft had to say about it. goes-digital-.htm
Bill Joy, cofounder and Chief Scientist of Sun Deeply Artificial Trees
Microsystems Watch DeepDream trying to process Bob Ross here:
“Why the Future Doesn’t Need Us” –Wired.com, April https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEhqFyvcpu8
4, 2000
Read the full text of Bill Joy’s manifesto entreating
humanity to restrain R&D in AI, nano and biotech. Bob Ross
Here’s Bob Ross’ channel on YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/user/BobRossInc
Hanson Robotics Watch Bob and judge for yourself how distorted
Watch “Sophia Awakens” on YouTube: DeepDream’s view of reality is.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LguXfHKsa0c.
For more information about Hanson Robotics
and Sophia:
http://www.hansonrobotics.com/.
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