MA 20104 Probability and Statistics

Hints/Solutions to Assignment No. 1

5
5 × 4 ×   × 3!
=
1. Required probability  2  = 48= 0.384.
55 125
2. Use definitions.

3. Let A → 5 appears, B → even number appears. Then

A = {(1, 4), (2, 3), (3, 2), (4, 1)}. Also B will have 18 elements. So
2
1 1 1 14 1  14  1 2
=P(A) = , P(B) . Now the P(5 appears first) = + . +   . + .... = .
9 2 9 36 9  36  9 11
=
4. Given =
P(C) 0.6, =
P(H) 0.3, P(C  H) 0.2.
= P(C  H C ) + P(CC  H)
The required probability
= P(C) − P(C  H) + P(H) − P(C  H) = 0.5

5. Let A → person is smoker, D → death due to lung cancer. Given P(A) = 0.2, P(D)
= 0.006 and P(D|A) = 10 P(D|AC) = 10 x, say. Use theorem of total probability to
get 10 x = 3/140 = 0.0214.

6. Use addition rule and the definition of the conditional probability.

7. 0.25.
2(1 − α)
8. (i) Use Bayes theorem, Reqd prob. = .
2(1 − α) + 2β + 3γ
(ii) Use theorem of total probability. Reqd prob. = (α + 2β + 3γ)/6.
(iii) Use theorem of total probability,
P( digit 1 was received) = (2 - 2α + 2β + 3γ)/ 12,
P( digit 2 was received) = (α + 4 - 4β + 3γ)/ 12,
P( digit 3 was received) = (α + 2β + 6 - 6γ)/ 12.

9. Let C → an automobile policyholder makes a claim,

M → automobile policyholder is male
F → automobile policyholder is female
Given P(M) = α, P(F) = 1 – α., 0 < α < 1. P(C|M) = pm, P(C|F) = pf .
Now P(A1) = P(C | M) P(M) + P(C | F) P(F) = α pm + (1 – α) pf .
P(A 2  A1 ) αp m2 + (1 − α)p f2
=P(A 2 | A1 ) = .
P(A1 ) αp m + (1 − α)p f

10. (i) False (ii) True (iii) False (iv) False

13   52 
11.     .
 4  4 

12. Count the cases to find the required probability as 43/216.

 10
1 1  31 
13. P( getting all ‘Ex’ in one semester) = = . Reqd. prob. =
1−   = 0.272 .
 32 
5
2 32
14. Use definition.
n n
n
i−n 3
15. P(X= i)=   2 , i= 0, 1, ..., n. P(A ⊂ B | X =
i) =
2 . P(A ⊂ B) =
  .
i  4
Also P(A  B =φ) =P(A ⊂ BC ).

16. P(student scores at least 8 marks) = P(scores 8 marks) + P(scores 9 marks) +

P(scores 10 marks) = 5/512.

17. 7/17, 6/17, 4/17.

18. Let X → number of girls qualifying, Y→ number of boys qualifying.

p=
P(X > Y) =
P(X =
n + 1) + P(X =
n + 2) + ... + P(X =
2n)
 1   2n   2n    1   2n   2n  
2n 2n

=     + ...=
+        + ... +  
 2   n + 1   2n    2   0   n − 1 
= P(Y > X)
 2n   1 
2n

=
r P(X= Y) =    .
 n 2
1   1   2n  
2n

As 2p + r =1 , we get= p 1 −      .
2   2   n  

19. Define, Ai = ith person gets back his own hat . So we need to find
P( No one gets back his own hat )
= P (  n i=1 Ai c )
=1 - P (  n i=1 Ai )
n
=1- ∑ (−1)
i =1
i −1
Si

 n  (n − i)!
where Si =   = Prob. that i many people will get back their own hats.
 i  n!

20.
n−k
n   r  
k
r
 k   R  1 − R 
    

 26   26 
 3   10 
21.    
 52 
 13 
 
  13   13   13   13 
 3 4  4  2 
22.        
 52 
 13 
 
23. Define Qi = Queen of the ith suit drawn i= c, h, d, s.
Define Ki = King of the ith suit drawn i= c, h, d, s.
1 4 3 2 1
(a) 4 (4!) =
52 52 52 52 52
4
 4 
(b)  
 52 
24. 1st box will contain no ball. So we remove the first box.

 n − 1  n 
From the resets one box must contain 2 balls in     ways. Left (n-2)
 1 2
ball can be distribute in (n-2) boxes in (n-2)! ways. So the probability of interest is
 n − 1  n 
 1   2  (n − 2)!
  
nn

n(n − 1) r −1
25. (a)
nr

(b) Choose r people from n people and spread the rumour in any order. So the
nC
r
probability of interest is .
nr