Technical Papers

Number 21
November 1982

SOCIAL INDICATORS DERIVED FROM VITAL STAT ST cs

International Institute for Vital Registration and Statistics

9650 Rockville Pike

Bethesda, Maryland 20814

U.S.A.

hternational Statistics
Reference Ccnter
National Ccnter For
Health Stalistics CONTENTS

.
Page

I NTRODUCT I ON 1

A . RECOMMENDATIONS AND 'SUGGESTIONS FOR SELECTION OF INDICATORS

DERIVED FROM V I T A L . S T A T I S T I C S

1 . COMPONENTS OF LEVELS OF L I V I N G . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

2. COMPENDIUM OF SOCIAL STATISTICS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

3 . S T A T I S T I C A L SERIES FOR THE USE OF LESS-DEVELOPED COUNTRIES . . . . 4

4. UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT DECADES .. INDICATORS FOR

MONITORING PERFORMANCE ...................... 5

5. S O C I A L INDICATORS: P R E L I M I N A R Y G U I D E L I N E S AND
I L L U S T R A T I V E SERIES ....................... 6

B . US€S OF INDICATORS DERIVED FROM V I T A L S T A T I S T I C S

1. GENERAL ............................. 7

(a) Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

(b) F a m i l y f o r m a t i o n and s t a b i l i t y . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

(c) S t a t e of health of the population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

2 . MONITORING PROGRESS TOWARD A C H I E V I N G TARGETS AND GOALS

(a) F i r s t U n i t e d N a t i o n s Development Decade .......... . 9

(b) S e c o n d U n i t e d N a t i o n s D e v e l o p m e n t D e c a d e . . . . . . . . . . 10

(c) T h i r d U n i t e d N a t i o n s D e v e l o p m e n t D e c a d e . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

( d ) I n t e r n a t i o n a l B i l l s o f Human R i g h t s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

( e ) World P o p u l a t i o n P l a n of A c t i o n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

( f ) World P l a n o f A c t i o n f o r t h e I m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f the

........
O b j e c t i v e s o f the I n t e r n a t i o n a l W o m e n ' s Y e a r 12

(9) P r o g r a m m e o f A c t i o n f o r t h e S e c o n d H a l f o f t h e U n i t e d

N a t i o n s D e c a d e f o r Women . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

C. A V A I L A B I L I T Y OF R E L I A B L E V I T A L S T A T I S T I C S INDICATORS AND
..........................
RECOMMENDED ACTION 13

D . CONCLUSIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

ANNEX ..................................
21
 SOCIAL INDICATORS D E R I V E D FROM VITAL STATISTICS

by
Nora P. Powell
Vice P r e s i d e n t
International I n s t i t u t e f o r Vital
R e g i s t r a t i o n and S t a t i s t i c s

INTRODUCT ION.

A t i t s 19th Session i n 1976, t h e S t a t i s t i c a l Commission o f t h e U n i t e d

N a t i o n s culminated a long h i s t o r y o f work on s o c i a l i n d i c a t o r s by approving f o r
p u b l i c a t i o n Social I n d i c a t o r s : P r e l i m i n a r y Guidelines and I l l u s t r a t i v e Series
(1978). The Guidelines were designed, i n t e r a t i a , " t o p r o v i d e a review o f con-
c e p t s o f s o c i a l i n d i c a t o r s t h a t have been advanced i n n a t i o n a l and i n t e r n a t i o n a l
work and t h e i r present stage o f development, ..." and I t t o f u r n i s h a f l e x i b l e and
evolutionary o u t l i n e ... f o r t h e f o r m u l a t i o n and s e l e c t i o n o f measures p e r t a i n i n g
t o t h e f i e l d s o f s o c i a l concern and t h e i r components . . . . I 1 These "measures,"
known as s o c i a l i n d i c a t o r s , might "take t h e form o f simple d a t a s e r i e s o r t h e y
may be s y n t h e t i c s e r i e s o b t a i n e d by a p p l y i n g a g r e a t e r o r l e s s e r amount o f pro-
cessign t o data s e r i e s . A t any p a r t i c u l a r time, i t may n o t be p o s s i b l e t o con-
s t r u c t a l l t h e i n d i c a t o r s t h a t would be d e s i r a b l e and t h i s l i m i t a t i o n should be
k e p t i n mind. S o c i a l i n d i c a t o r s form a subset o f t h e data s e r i e s and c o n s t r u c t s
a c t u a l l y o r p o t e n t i a l l y a v a i l a b l e and a r e thus d i s t i n g u i s h e d from o t h e r s t a t i s -
t i c s o n l y by t h e i r s u i t a b i l i t y and relevance f o r one o f t h e purposes mentioned."

The purpose o f t h i s paper i s t o t r a c e t h e development o f s o c i a l i n d i c a t o r s

i n t h e U n i t e d Nations from t h e i n i t i a l work on l e v e l s o f l i v i n g i n t h e 1950s t o
t h e approval o f t h e P r e l i m i n a r y G u i d e l i n e s i n 1976, and t o show t h a t a c o n s i d e r -
a b l e number o f these i n d i c a t o r s a r e d e r i v e d from v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s . The paper
seeks t o demonstrate t h a t ever s i n c e work began on i n d i c a t o r s o f l e v e l s o f
l i v i n g v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s have been acknowledged a s an i n t e g r a l p a r t o f s o c i a l
s t a t i s t i c s and hence o f s o c i a l i n d i c a t o r s . The u l t i m a t e o b j e c t i v e i s t o under- ,
l i n e t h e fundamental r o l e t h a t v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s must p l a y i n s o c i a l and.economic
p l a n n i n g and p o l i c y making and, t o t h i s end, t h e paper reviews t h e uses such i n -
d i c a t o r s have been assigned, f i r s t i n general terms by U n i t e d N a t i o n s ' recom-
mendations on c i v i l r e g i s t r a t i o n and v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s , and second, by U n i t e d
N a t i o n s Programmes, S t r a t e g i e s , and Plans o f A c t i o n f o r general development pur-
poses and f o r s e c t o r a l development. Comments on t h e adequacy o f i n d i c a t o r s de-
r i v e d f r o m v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s for these purposes complete t h e review. I n conclu-
s i o n , t h e paper stresses t h e need f o r every c o u n t r y t o work toward a c h i e v i n g a
r e l i a b l e and comprehensive body o f v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s so t h a t i t s important r o l e
may be f u l l y r e a l i z e d .

No attempt w i l l be made t o d i s c u s s t h e scope, concepts and purposes o f t h e

f u l l a r r a y o f s o c i a l i n d i c a t o r s ; these m a t t e r s have been f u l l y t r e a t e d e l s e -
where. T h i s paper w i l l be l i m i t e d t o t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n of what, .for conven-
ience, may b e c a l l e d " v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s i n d i c a t o r s ' ' t h a t have been proposed o r
presented by various U n i t e d N a t i o n s ' bodies o v e r t h e , p a s t 25 years, and t h e uses
t h a t these i n d i c a t o r s a r e designed t o serve. For s i m p l i c i t y , t h e v i t a l s t a t i s -
t i c s i n d i c a t o r s w i l l be d e f i n e d i n terms o f personal c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o n l y , i g n o r -
i n g suggestions f o r geographic c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s . : A l s o , they w i l l be l i s t e d and
discussed as d e r i v e d r a t e s , r a t i o s and l i f e expectancies, even though t h e o r i g i -
n a l sources may have presented them,in terms o f t h e u n d e r l y i n g s t a t i s t i c a l s e r i e s
o f a b s o l u t e numbers. For t h e same reason, no attempt has been made t o r e f l e c t
 recommendations on p e r i o d i c i t y o r frequency o f c o m p i l a t i o n , n o r t o d i s c r i m i n a t e
between i n d i c a t o r s said. t o be useful for more-developed and less-developed
countries .
A. RECOMMENDATIONS AND SUGGESTIONS FOR SELECTION OF INDICATORS D E R I V E D FROM
VITAL STATISTICS

1. COMPONENTS OF LEVELS OF LIVING

I n d i c a t o r s d e r i v e d f r o m v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s have had a l o n g i n t e r n a t i o n a l h i s -
t o r y , having found an important p l a c e i n t h e f i r s t i n t e r n a t i o n a l catalogue o f
components o f l e v e l s of l i v i n g . T h i s catalogue c o n s i s t e d o f a s e t o f i n d i c a t o r s
designed f o r purposes of i n t e r n a t i o n a l comparison o f l e v e l s o f l i v i n g (1954) as
requested i n General Assembly r e s o l u t i o n 527 ( V I ) and Economic and S o c i a l Council
r e s o l u t i o n 434 B ( X I V ) o f 1952. I t was drawn up by a Committee o f Experts, con-
vened i n 1953 t o advise the Secretary General o f the U n i t e d Nations on " t h e most
s a t i s f a c t o r y methods o f d e f i n i n g and measuring standards o f , 1 i v i n g and changes
t h e r e i n i n t h e v a r i o u s c o u n t r i e s , h a v i n g regard t o t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f i n t e r n a -
t i o n a l comparisons . . . . ' I The Committee's c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f t h i s most d i f f i c u l t
and c h a l l e n g i n g problem, which was regarded, even a t t h a t t i m e , t o be " c e n t r a l
t o t h e e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e economic and s o c i a l programmes o f t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l
o r g a n i z a t i o n s and o f n a t i o n a l governments," r e s u l t e d i n recommendations f o r some
40 s t a t i s t i c a l i n d i c a t o r s t h a t t h e Committee considered t o be i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y
accepted values o f ( 1 ) h e a l t h , i n c l u d i n g demographic c o n d i t i o n s ; (2) food and
n u t r i t i o n ; (3) education, i n c l u d i n g 1 i t e r a c y and s k i 11s; (4) c o n d i t i o n s o f work;
(5) employment s i t u a t i o n ; ( 6 ) aggregate consumption and savings, and (7) t r a n s -
p o r t a t i o n . Most important f o r purposes o f t h i s paper, t h r e e i n d i c a t o r s , based
on v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s , were i n c l u d e d i n t h e h e a l t h component: these were, (1)
e x p e c t a t i o n o f l i f e a t b i r t h , (2) i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y r a t e , and (3) crude death
rate. I n t h e judgment o f t h e Committee, "...the h i g h c o r r e l a t i o n between these
i n d i c a t o r s and o t h e r c o n d i t i o n s o f l i v i n g , as w e l l as t h e i n t r i n s i c meaning of
t h e i n d i c a t o r s themselves, places them ... among t h e b e s t now a v a i l a b l e f o r t h e
measurement o f d i f f e r e n c e s i n l e v e l s o f 1 i v i n g and changes therein." Moreover,
the Committee s i n g l e d o u t t h e e x p e c t a t i o n 'of l i f e a t b i r t h and t h e i n f a n t m o r t a l -
i t y r a t e as t w o o f e i g h t i n d i c a t o r s designated as having h i g h e s t p r i o r i t y .

Not o n l y d i d t h e Committee i n c l u d e t h r e e v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s i n d i c a t o r s as
b a s i c s t a t i s t i c a l i n d i c a t o r s o f l e v e l s o f l i v i n g , i t proposed t h a t t h r e e a d d i -
t i o n a l i n d i c a t o r s based on v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s be included among t h e "next steps"
i n t h e development o f data f o r measuring l e v e l s o f l i v i n g : these were ( 1 ) ex-
p e c t a t i o n of l i f e a t v a r i o u s s e l e c t e d ages, (2) i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y r a t e minus neo-
n a t a l i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y , and (3) c a u s e - s p e c i f i c m o r t a l i t y r a t e s . These proposals
f o r t h e f u t u r e as w e l l as t h e t h r e e v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s i n d i c a t o r s o r i g i n a l l y
recommended a r e shown i n t h e Annex.

The Committee o f Experts t r a n s m i t t e d i t s Report t o t h e Secretary General i n

1953. I t s proposals provided a framework f o r t h e second Report on t h e World
S o c i a l S i t u a t i o n (1957) and, more i m p o r t a n t perhaps, t h e o p p o r t u n i t y t o e x p e r i -
ment w i t h t h e proposed-components and i n d i c a t o r s and t o check t h e t h e o r y a g a i n s t
I
i t s practical applications.

I n 1959, t h e Committee's proposals, t o g e t h e r w i t h t h e progress achieved

,!. I - s i n c e t h e i r promulgation, were reviewed by an inter-agency Working P a r t y on
t l s t l c s f o r S o c i a l Programmes, s e t up i n response t o ECOSOC r e s o l u t i o n 585 B
) . o f 1955. In t h e f i e l d o f v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s , t h e Working P a r t y ' s r e p o r t

 (1961): n o t o n l y confirmed the p r i o r i t y s t a t u s o f t h e i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y r a t e and

the e x p e c t a t i o n o f l i f e a t b i r t h , b o t h recommended by t h e Committee o f Experts,
i t upgraded t h e annual crude death r a t e t o p r i o r i t y s t a t u s i n s p i t e o f t h e w e l l -
known dependence o f t h i s i n d i c a t o r on t h e age s t r u c t u r e o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n . In
t h e o p i n i o n o f t h e Working Party, t h e w i d e l y a v a i l a b l e crude death r a t e may be
used t o r e f l e c t t h e i n t e n s i t y of m o r t a l i t y i n a g i v e n c o u n t r y , i n t h e absence o f
more s e n s i t i v e i n d i c a t o r s .

The t h r e e p r i o r i t y i n d i c a t o r s mentioned above were considered d i r e c t o r

s p e c i f i c indicators o f health status. Among t h e "general" i n d i c a t o r s o f l e v e l s
o f l i v i n g , t h e Working P a r t y recommended t h e p r o p o r t i o n a l m o r t a l i t y i n d i c a t o r ,
d e f i n e d as t h e p r o p o r t i o n of deaths a t ages 50 and over t o a l l deaths, because
i t had "been shown e m p i r i c a l l y t o be h i g h l y s e n s i t i v e t o d i f f e r e n c e s i n l e v e l s
o f l i v i n g generally. I t has t h e a d d i t i o n a l advantage t h a t t h e p r i m a r y data a r e
comparatively simple t o c o l l e c t , and t h e method o f c o n s t r u c t i o n i s s t r a i g h t -
forward." Moreover, t h e Working P a r t y considered t h a t d a t a on t h e demographic
s i t u a t i o n should be included as b a s i c background i n f o r m a t i o n , and i t recommended
t h a t , i n a d d i t i o n t o t h e t h r e e p r i o r i t y i n d i c a t o r s , t h e crude b i r t h r a t e as w e l l
as t h e r a t e o f n a t u r a l increase be computed. These i n d i c a t o r s a r e shown i n t h e
Annex where i t may be observed t h a t , b y 1959, v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s were t h e b a s i s
f o r no l e s s than n i n e (9) i n d i c a t o r s recommended f o r measuring l e v e l s of l i v i n g . .

2. COMPENDIUM OF SOCIAL STATISTICS

To t e s t t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f t h e s o c i a l i n d i c a t o r s recommended by t h e Corn
m i t t e e o f Experts and the Working P a r t y on S t a t i s t i c s f o r S o c i a l Programmes, f o r
d e s c r i b i n g s o c i a l c o n d i t i o n s and s o c i a l change, t h e U n i t e d Nations and t h e
s p e c i a l i z e d agencies concerned compiled and p u b l i s h e d a Compendium o f S o c i a l
S t a t i s t i c s , (1963). Among the 62 t a b l e s shown i n t h e r e v i s e d e d i t i o n (1968a),
s i x were devoted t o v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s and t h e 1 1 i n d i c a t o r s shown i n these t a b l e s
were: ( 1 ) crude b i r t h rate; (2) crude death r a t e ; (3) i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y r a t e ;
(4) neonatal m o r t a l i t y r a t e ; (5) post-neonatal mortal i t y r a t e ; (6) e x p e c t a t i o n
o f l i f e a t b i r t h for males and females; (7) e x p e c t a t i o n o f l i f e a t ages 1, 15,
and 65 f o r males and females; (8) p r o p o r t i o n a l m o r t a l i t y r a t i o ; (9) c h i l d h o o d
death r a t e for ages 1-4 years o f age by sex, and (10) p e r c e n t of deaths due t o
i n f e c t i o u s and p a r a s i t i c diseases. These i n d i c a t o r s were shown t o be a v a i l a b l e
f o r a number of c o u n t r i e s , thus s u b s t a n t i a t i n g t h e correctness o f t h e i r s e l e c t i o n
as s o c i a l i n d i c a t o r s .

When t h e Compendium was r e v i s e d a g a i n i n 1977 (1980a), i t contained d a t a

' on 7 o f t h e v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s i n d i c a t o r s p u b l i s h e d i n t h e 1967 e d i t i o n . Omitted
were t h e neonatal m o r t a l i t y r a t e ; t h e post-neonatal m o r t a l i t y r a t e ; and t h e pro-
portional mortality ratio. However, t e n a d d i t i o n a l i n d i c a t o r s , d e r i v e d f r o m
v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s were included, namely, (1) general ( t o t a l ) f e r t i l i t y r a t e ; (2)
i n f a n t death r a t e by s e l e c t e d causes and sex; (3) childhood death r a t e (1-4
years) f o r s e l e c t e d causes and sex; (4) t o t a l death r a t e f r o m s e l e c t e d causes
by sex; (5) gross r e p r o d u c t i o n r a t e ; (6) n e t r e p r o d u c t i o n r a t e ; (7) deaths 15
years o f age and o v e r as percent o f a1 1 deaths, by sex; (78).maternal m ' r t a l i t y
r a t e ; (9) m o d i f i e d crude marriage r a t e , t h a t i s , per 1,000 (marriageable male o r
female p o p u l a t i o n , and (10) m o d i f i e d crude d i v o r c e r a t e , t h a t Vs, 15 years of
age and over, per 1,000 married couples. These new i n d i c a t o r s may, t o some
e x t e n t , have t h e i r o r i g i n i n t h e need f o r v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s W i a t can be used t o
study t h e problems o f women. The inclusion1 o f these indi,cators . i n t h e 1977
Compendiwn shows t h a t those proposed f o r computation, as w e l l as aGnumber of
more s o p h i ? s t i c a t e d i n d i c e s , a r e a b l e t o be computed by a number of c o u n t r i e s .

 A number o f i n d i c a t o r s of demographic and s o c i a l c o n d i t i o n s r e l a t i n g t o

1960 p u b l i s h e d i n t h e Compendium, 1967 became, i n February 1969, p a r t o f a 1960
data bank c r e a t e d by the United Nations Research I n s t i t u t e f o r S o c i a l Development
(UNR SD) t o serve i t s research needs on t h e contents and measurement o f develop-
ment Some 92 s o c i a l and economic i n d i c a t o r s shown t o be d i s c r i m i n a t o r y were
pub 1 shed i n a Compilation o f Development I n d i c a t o r s ( f o r 1960) (1969); of these,
7 we e based on v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s , namely, ( 1 ) crude b i r t h r a t e ; (2) crude death
r a t e (3) i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y r a t e ; (4) e x p e c t a t i o n o f l i f e a t b i r t h ; (5) death r a t e
due t o i n f e c t i o u s and p a r a s i t i c diseases; (6) gross r e p r o d u c t i o n r a t e , and (7)
proportional mortality ratio.

From t h e 92 chosen s o c i a l and economic i n d i c a t o r s , t h e UNRISD i s o l a t e d 24

"core i n d i c a t o r s ' ' on the b a s i s of i n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n , s e c t o r a l coverage and o t h e r
criteria. These 24 were blrought t o change as a group w i t h development and', i n
a c r o s s - n a t i o n a l s t a t i s t i c a l sense, may be s a i d roughly t o d e f i n e development.
F i v e o f t h e core i n d i c a t o r s were d e r i v e d from v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s , they a r e ( 1 )
crude b i r t h r a t e ; (2) crude death r a t e ; (3) crude r a t e o f n a t u r a l increase; (4)
i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y r a t e , and (5) e x p e c t a t i o n o f l i f e a t b i r t h .

3. STATISTICAL SERIES FOR THE USE OF LESS-DEVELOPED COUNTRIES (1959)

C l o s e l y r e l a t e d t o t h e work on measurement'of l e v e l s o f l i v i n g was t h e dec

s i o n o f t h e S t a t i s t i c a l Commission o f t h e U n i t e d , N a t i o n s a t i t s 10th Session i n
1958 t o a u t h o r i z e t h e c o m p i l a t i o n o f a " l i s t o f s t a t i s t i c a l s e r i e s which, when
coupled w i t h a d e s c r i p t i o n of t h e need f o r and sources o f each o f t h e s e r i e s ,
would be o f a s s i s t a n c e t o less-developed c o u n t r i e s i n developing an i n t e g r a t e d
s e t o f b a s i c s t a t i s t i c s f o r use i n programmes o f economic and s o c i a l develop-
ment." The l i s t was n o t t o be considered a minimum or standard s e t o f s t a t i s t i -
c a l s e r i e s b u t t h e Report n o t e s . t h a t i t d i d "contain t h e main s t a t i s t i c a l s e r i e s
which i t had proved t o be f e a s i b l e t o c o l l e c t and which f u r n i s h t h e p r i n c i p a l
measures necessary t o assess economic growth and changes i n c o n d i t i o n s of f

.
1 i v i n g . . .I1

The l i s t was c l a s s i f i e d i n t o 12 c a t e g o r i e s o f s t a t i s t i c s , t h e f i r s t o f '

which was "The s i z e and n a t u r e of p o p u l a t i o n and i t s elements of change (e.g.,
b i r t h s and deaths). .. .I' These were i d e n t i f i e d as "basic f a c t o r s i n t h e economic
and s o c i a l s e t t i n g for development e f f o r t s and e n t e r i n t o determining, on t h e
one hand, t h e magnitude and c h a r a c t e r o f t h e demand f o r goods and s e r v i c e s and,
on t h e o t h e r hand, t h e s i z e and q u a l i t y o f t h e labour resources f o r producing
those goods and services.'' The v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s s e r i e s included i n the l i s t
were t h r e e i n number: t h e f i r s t was t h e t o t a l number o f l i v e b i r t h s o c c u r r i n g
d u r i n g t h e year, c l a s s i f i e d by sex. L i v e b i r t h s by o r d e r o f l i v e b i r t h and age
o f mother was t h e second recommended s e r i e s . The t h i r d was t h e t o t a l number o f
deaths o c c u r r i n g d u r i n g t h e year, c l a s s i f i e d by sex, age and cause. I t was a l s o
suggested t h a t , i n a d d i t i o n t o t h e t o t a l country; each be made a v a i l a b l e f o r
urban and r u r a l areas and, i f f e a s i b l e , f o r major c i v i l d i v i s i o n s .

I t w i l l be e v i d e n t t h a t , depending on t h e age c l a s s i f i c a t i o n chosen for

deaths, and a v a i l a b i l i t y o f comparable p o p u l a t i o n bases, these t h r e e s e r i e s
c o u l d p r o v i d e t h e base data f o r c o m p i l a t i o n o f e i g h t o f t h e n i n e r a t e s and
r a t i o s recommended as i n d i c a t o r s o f l e v e l s o f l i v i n g by t h e above-mentioned Com-
m i t t e e . o f Experts (1954) as w e l l as b y the Working P a r t y (1961). In total,
these s e r i e s c o u l d p r o v i d e f o r the computation o f t h e f o l l o w i n g 20 i n d i c a t o r s ,
derived) from v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s : ( 1 ) crude n a t u r a l increase r a t e ; (2) n a t u r a l
d'nc'reese r a t e by sex; ( 3 ) n a t u r a l increase r a t e by age groups; (4) n a t u r a l 'I

i
i

- --
 increase rate by age and sex; (5) natural increase rate by sex; ( 6 ) crude birth

rate; (7) total fertility rate; (8) birth rate by sex; (9) birth rate by age of

mother; (10) birth rate by order of birth; (11) birth rate by age of mother and

birth order; (12) crude death rate; (13) death rate by age and sex; (14) death

rate by cause; (15) death rate by cause, age and sex; (16) percent of deaths due

to infectious and parasitic diseases; (17) proportional mortality ratio; (18)

expectation of life at birth; (19) expectation of life at selected ages; (20)

expectation of life at birth for males and females; (21) expectation of life at

birth and selected ages for males and females, and (22) infant mortality rate.

These 22 indicators, able to be computed from the 3 basic vital statistics

series, are shown in the Annex.

4. UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT DECADES--INDICATORS FOR MONITORING

PERFORMANCE

In the chronology of the evolution of statistical indicators to measure

development, one might expect the fi rst United Nations Development Decade (1962)
to have had an important impact. The implementing General Assembly resolution
(1710 ( X V I ) of 19 December 1961) referred not only to economic development but
also to social advancement; social development; the elimination of illiteracy,
hunger and disease; improvements in education, and similar measures of social
progress. But statistical indicators of social development or targets of develop- ,
ment were suggested only in the fields of education, where UNESCO's programme was
adopted, and health, which reflected the "Third Programme of Work for a Specified
' Period,'' adopted by the Thirteenth World Health Assembly, wherein health was seen
in its proper socio-economic context. There were no suggestions for a system of
indicators of development that might be used in appraising progress during the
decade although "reduction of the infant mortality rate'' was cited as an example
of a target.

The charting of economic and social development and the monitoring of pro-
gress toward objectives took on more importance when the General Assembly pro-
claimed the Second United Nations Development Decade, starting in 1971, and
simultaneously adopted the International Development Strategy (1970), known also
as the "Action Programme" for the 1970s. This Strategy, unlike that for the
1960s, made biennial review and appraisal of progress in both the objectives and
the policies of the comprehensive and integrated programme for national and inter-
national action a matter of overriding importance to the United Nations bodies.
The General Assembly specifically requested that an inter-agency report, "out-
lining the details of a system of over-all appraisal of the progress in imple-
menting the International Development Strategy," based on the views of. govern-
ments as well as the discussions in the General Assembly and the Economic and
Social Council, be prepared for the Council's consideration in 1971.1 The result-
ing report, entitled "A System of Over-all Review and Appraisal of the Objectives
and Policies of the International Development Strategy" (1971a) contained a list
of "Indicators for Monitoring Performance in Respect of the.Various Elements of
the International Development Strategy," geared to the quantitative targets sug-
gested in the Strategy. Indicators derived from vital statistics were included
as follows:

-( birth rate; (2) crude ,death rate; (3)-infant mortal i ty

rate; (4) death rate by cause, and (5) expectation o f life at bhrth.

On 3 May 1971, the Economic and Social Council adopted Resolution 1566 (L)
which was concerned with the methods o f achieving the goals of the Decade,
specifically with the establishment of an integrated system for the collection
of data, data processing, and dissemination of international statistics, with

s p e c i a l regard t o t h e requirements o f r e v i e w i n g and a p p r a i s i n g economic and

s o c i a l progress, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t h e c o n t e x t o f t h e p o l i c y measures and o b j e c -
t i v e s o f t h e Second U n i t e d Nations Development Decade.

I n response t o t h i s Resolution, t h e S t a t i s t i c a l Commission drew up a l i s t

o f " I n d i c a t o r s f o r M o n i t o r i n g Performance i n Respect o f t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l
Development Strategy". The p o i n t o f d e p a r t u r e f o r working o u t these i n d i c a t o r s
was the l i s t of " I n d i c a t o r s f o r M o n i t o r i n g Performance...'' included by t h e Eco-
nomic and S o c i a l Council i n i t s Syste m....( l 9 7 l a ) mentioned above. These were
c l a r i f i e d , e l a b o r a t e d and expanded i n c e r t a i n cases and, though made r e l e v a n t t o
i n d i v i d u a l c o u n t r i e s , they a p p l i e d a l s o t o groups o f c o u n t r i e s when aggregated.
The r e s u l t was ''a p r e l i m i n a r y d r a f t o f t h e guidance t h a t might be f u r n i s h e d i n
respect o f t h e i n d i c a t o r s t h a t should be compiled n a t i o n a l l y and i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y
i n o r d e r t o f o l low developments d u r i n g t h e Second Development Decade." (1972)
Among t h e s o c i a l i n d i c a t o r s d e r i v e d from v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s suggested f o r t h e above
purpose were (1) crude b i r t h r a t e ; (2) crude death r a t e ; ( 3 ) age and sex s p e c i -
f i c death r a t e ; (4) i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y r a t e , and (5) e x p e c t a t i o n o f l i f e a t b i r t h
and a t c e r t a i n o t h e r ages. These a r e shown i n t h e Annex t o t h i s paper.

5. SOCIAL INDICATORS: PRELIMINARY GUlDELlNES AND ILLUSTRATIVE SERIES

The P r e l i m i n a r y Guidel ines (19781, approved by t h e S t a t i s t i c a l Commission

a t i t s 19th Session i n 1976, was t h e c u l m i n a t i o n o f t h e work t h a t has been o u t -
l i n e d above. I t has u t i l i z e d the v a r i o u s fragmentary e f f o r t s and i s now recog-
i
n i z e d as a r e f e r e n c e f o r work on s o c i a l i n d i c a t o r s i n n a t i o n a l s t a t i s t i c a l o f -
fices. I t p r o v i d e s a review o f concepts o f s o c i a l i n d i c a t o r s which have been
advanced and discussed i n d e t a i l b o t h by governments and independent e x p e r t s ,
r e g i o n a l commissions, i n t e r e s t e d s p e c i a l i z e d agencies and o t h e r bodies. It
i n d i c a t e s t h e way i n which s o c i a l i n d i c a t o r s may be s e l e c t e d and defined w i t h i n
a framework f o r t h e i n t e g r a t i o n o f s o c i a l and demographic s t a t i s t i c s . As em-
phasized i n t h e Commission's Report (1977), t h e Guidelines a r e n o t t o be con-
ceived as recommendations b u t as a u s e f u l i n v e n t o r y which i n t e r e s t e d producers
and users o f s t a t i s t i c s might c o n s u l t i n i d e n t i f y i n g and d e f i n i n g i n d i c a t o r s
u s e f u l f o r any number o f d i f f e r e n t purposes. The Commission a l s o stated. t h a t
the i l l u s t r a t i v e s e r i e s , c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s and i n d i c a t o r s shown i n t h e G u i d e l i n e s
represented a s u b s t a n t i a l updating o f p r e v i o u s m a t e r i a l on t h e b a s i s o f wide
c o n s u l t a t i o n s and t h e r e v i s e d Report should, t h e r e f o r e , be considered as super-
seding t h e m a t e r i a l presented i n e a r l i e r p u b l i c a t i o n s .

I n s o f a r as personal c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a r e concerned, i n d i c a t o r s d e r i v e d from

v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s i n t h e P r e l i m i n a r y G u i d e l i n e s a r e s i m i a r t o those i n c l u d e d i n
the p r e v i o u s proposals as shown above and i n t h e Annex. However , they in t ro-
duced geographic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s which, for: simp1 i c i t y , have been o m i t t e d i n
I
t h i s paper.

The v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s i n d i c a t o r s s e t f o r t h i n t h e I ' l l u s t r a t i v e Series and !

C 1ass if ic a t i o n s f o r S e l e c t inq Soci a1 Ind ic a t o r s " (Annex I1 o f t h e G u i d e l i n e s )
and i n t h e " I l l u s t r a t i v e Examples o f S o c i a l I n d i c a t o r s f o r D i f f e r e n t Types .. of
Countries,'' (Annex I V o f t h e Guidel ines) comprise t h e most comprehensive 1 i s t
y e t suggested. Included i n i t a r e i n d i c a t o r s f o r developed and developing coun-
t r i e s because t h e examples a r e designed t o p r o v i d e t h e w i d e s t p o s s i b l e range o f
i n d i c a t o r s from which c o u n t r i e s can s e l e c t those t h a t t h e y consider a r e f e a s i b l e
o f computation. The " I l l u s t r a t i v e Examples and Series" i n c l u d e (1) crude b i r t h
r a t e ; (2) b i r t h r a t e by age o f mother; ( 3 ) b i r t h by n a t i o n a l o r e t h n i c o r i g i n ;
(4) b i r t h r a t e by socio-economic groups; (5) gross r e p r o d u c t i o n r a t e ; ( 6 ) n e t

r e p r o d u c t i o n r a t e ; (7) percent o f b i r t h s attended by a p h y s i c i a n ; ( 8 ) p e r c e n t o f

b i r t h s attended by a physician, by n a t i o n a l or e t h n i c o r i g i n ; (9) crude d e a t h
r a t e ; (10) death r a t e by age and sex; (11) death r a t e by causes o f death; (12)
death r a t e by n a t i o n a l o r e t h n i c o r i g i n ; (13) death r a t e by socio-economic
groups; (14) death r a t e o f married persons by d u r a t i o n o f marriage; (15) death
r a t e of married persons by d u r a t i o n o f marriage and age o f decedent; (16) c h i l d -
hood death r a t e ; (17) childhood death r a t e by sex and s e l e c t e d causes; (18) i n -
f a n t m o r t a l it y r a t e ; (19) neonatal m o r t a l it y r a t e ; (20) post-neonatal m o r t a l i t y
r a t e ; (21) maternal m o r t a l i t y r a t e ; (22) percent o f labour f o r c e who d i e , b y sex;
(23) percent of l a b o u r f o r c e who d i e by age and sex; (24) percent o f l a b o u r
force who d i e , by occupation; (25) e x p e c t a t i o n o f l i f e , a t b i r t h , by sex; (26)
e x p e c t a t i o n of l i f e a t b i r t h , s e l e c t e d ages and sex; (27) e x p e c t a t i o n o f l i f e a t
s e l e c t e d ages and socio-economic groups; (28) e x p e c t a t i o n o f l i f e a t s e l e c t e d
ages and n a t i o n a l o r e t h n i c o r i g i n ; (29) f i r s t marriage r a t e ; (30) f i r s t mar-
r i a g e r a t e by age and sex; (31) f i r s t marriage r a t e by n a t i o n a l o r e t h n i c groups;
(32) average age a t f i r s t marriage f o r males and females; (33) crude d i v o r c e
r a t e ; (34) d i v o r c e r a t e o f married couples, 15 years and over; (35) d i v o r c e r a t e
by average d u r a t i o n o f marriage, and (36) d i v o r c e r a t e by average d u r a t i o n o f
marriage and age o f p a r t n e r s .

W i t h t h e P r e l i m i n a r y Guidelines, therefore,' t h e s u b j e c t o f s o c i a l i n d i c a t o r s ,
a t l e a s t those d e r i v e d from v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s , has reached a stage where t h e pro-
posals span almost t h e e n t i r e v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s f i e l d . Taking i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n
i n d i c a t o r s . proposed i n Annex I I and Annex I V , one i s l e f t w i t h a minimum o f 36
v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s r a t e s and r a t i o s from which c o u n t r i e s can choose. This minimum
does n o t take cognizance o f the a d d i t i o n a l i n d i c e s t h a t would r e s u l t i f t h e pro-
posals f o r geographic c h a r a c t e r i z a t i o n were t o be taken i n t o account. I t there-
f o r e f a i l s t o p o i n t o u t t h a t i f t h e proposed geographic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s were
adopted by a country, the data r e q u i r e d would almost c e r t a i n l y have t o be pro-
duced by a c i v i l r e g i s t r a t i o n system s i n c e demographic surveys by v i r t u e of
t h e i r dependence on sampling cannot e a s i l y produce data f o r l o c a l areas. They
can, w i t h wide margins o f e r r o r , produce data f o r u r b a d r u r a l resi,dence, b u t
they a r e o f t e n unable t o produce data f o r major and minor c i v i l d i v i s i o n s , ex-
cept, perhaps, w i t h g r e a t expense. The e s s e n t i a l r o l e of t h e c i v i l r e g i s t r a t i o n /
v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s system i s c l e a r l y demonstrated.

B. USES OF INDICATORS DERIVED FROM VITAL STATISTICS

1. GENERAL

I n approving t h e p u b l i c a t i o n o f t h e P r e l i m i n a r y Guidelines and I l l u s t r a t i v e

Series,for S o c i a l I n d i c a t o r s (1978), t h e S t a t i s t i c a l Commission considered var-
ious purposes which s o c i a l i n d i c a t o r s might serve i n planning, p o l i c y making,
research, general m o n i t o r i n g o f s o c i a l c o n d i t i o n s and changes, l e v e l s of 1 i v i n g
and l i v i n g c o n d i t i o n s , and so f o r t h . Members agreed t h a t " i t was n e i t h e r f e a s i -
b l e nor d e s i r a b l e i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l g u i d e l i n e s t o designate any one of those
alone as preeminently important." The Report o f t h e Commission (1977) empha-
s i z e d t h a t " t h e purposes f o r which i n d i c a t o r s might be compiled, i n any g i v e n
case, and t h e i r a c t u a l s p e c i f i c a t i o n and s e l e c t i o n , should be l e f t t o n a t i o n a l
and i n t e r n a t i o n a l bodies and researchers t o decide i n terms o f t h e i r p a r t i c u l a r
i n t e r e s t s and p o s s i b i l i t i e s o f data compilation."

These remarks, of course, r e f e r t o comprehensive s t a t i s t i c a l s e r i e s cover-

i n g t h e f u l l a r r a y of t o p i c s u s u a l l y considered as s o c i a l s t a t i s t i c s . I n the
more l i m i t e d area of v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s , a r a t h e r e x t e n s i v e l i t e r a t u r e e x i s t s on

 ented. The

t describes t h e r o l e o f v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s i n c a r r y i n g o u t demographic
nd a n a l y s i s a t the n a t i o n a l l e v e l , i n c l u d i n g p o p u l a t i o n e s t i m a t i o n ,

h e a l t h services, housing p o l i c y , educational s e r v i c e s , s o c i a l s e c u r i t y systems,

food requirements and so f o r t h . I t a l s o notes t h a t commercial i n t e r e s t s make
use o f v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s i n market a n a l y s i s , p a r t i c u l a r l y o f t h e needs o f mothers
and i n f a n t s , and t h e i r i n f l u e n c e on business planning.
1

According t o t h e P r e l iminary Guidel ines (1978) ; s o c i a l i n d i c a t o r s , i n c l u d i n g I ,

those d e r i v e d f r o m v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s , may be used (1) t o d e t e c t i n c i p i e m t s o c i a l

problems, as w e l l as t o monitor recognized ones; (2) t o e s t a b l i s h scales i n terms
o f which t a r g e t s f o r b e t t e r l e v e l s o f l i v i n g can be set, and ( 3 ) t o h i g h l i g h t
c e r t a i n i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s among t h e various dimensions of w e l l - b e i n g and some
of t h e u n d e r l y i n g circumstances t h a t may a f f e c t t h e s t a t u s o f , and trends i n ,
well-being.

I n t h e Guidelines, t h e uses o f v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s i n d i c a t o r s a r e described as

b e i n g concerned w i t h measuring changes i n ( 1 ) p o p u l a t i o n ; (2) f a m i l y f o r m a t i o n
and s t a b i l i t y , and (3) t h e s t a t e o f h e a l t h o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n .

(a) Population

I n d i s c u s s i n g "Population", t h e Guidel ines p o i n t o u t t h a t "5.6 The s i z e

and composition o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n according to sex, age, n a t i o n a l o r e t h i c o r i g i n
and socio-economic groups and r a t e s of n e t change a r e e s s e n t i a l t o understanding
p o p u l a t i o n trends i n themselves as w e l l as t h e i r impact i n terms o f socio-
economic c o n d i t i o n s and problems, t h e demand f o r and use o f s o c i a l s e r v i c e s and
r a t e s and types o f p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n s o c i a l and economic a c t i v i t i e s . The i l l u s -
t r a t e d s e r i e s on b i r t h s , deaths and n e t i n t e r n a t i o n a l m i g r a t i o n p o r t r a y the
trends i n t h e components o f changes i n n a t i o n a l p o p u l a t i o n . T a b u l a t i o n of t h e s e
s e r i e s according t o t h e s e l e c t e d c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s shown i s designed t o i d e n t i f y
some o f t h e important groups o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n whose r a t e s of change i n s i z e I
1
and associated w e l f a r e c o n d i t i o n s , problems and needs a r e l i k e l y t o d i f f e r , and
thus reveal important d i s t r i b u t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . I
i

"5.7 The b i r t h and i n t e r n a t i o n a l m i g r a t i o n r a t e s of a p o p u l a t i o n o f t e n

r e c e i v e a t t e n t i o n s i n c e f e r t i l i t y and n e t i n t e r n a t i o n a l m i g r a t i o n a r e t h e e l e -
ments o f o v e r - a l l p o p u l a t i o n change t h a t may be t h e s u b j e c t of v a r y i n g govern-
ment p o l i c i e s and programmes. Crude b i r t h r a t e s a r e n o t w e l l s u i t e d f o r t h i s
purpose, s i n c e they a r e a f f e c t e d by such f a c t o r s as v a r i a t i o n s i n t h e age and
sex composition o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n . Therefore, a c l a s s i f i c a t i o n according t o ag6
of mother i s shown."

(b) Family f o r m a t i o n and s t a b i l i t y

The d i s c u s s i o n o f f a m i l y formation and s t a b i l i t y i n t h e Guidelines

includes t h e f o l l o w i n g : "5.9 Family f o r m a t i o n and s t r u c t u r e a r e fundamental fac-

tors underlying the l i v i n g conditions o f ...
the non-institutional population ....
I n f o r m a t i o n on f a m i l y formation and d i s s o l u t i o n i s i m p o r t a n t i n making estimates
o f f u t u r e demands for goods and s e r v i c e s i n many f i e l d s . The s e r i e s , c l a s s i f i c a -
t i o n s and i n d i c a t o r s shown for t h i s f i e l d o f s o c i a l concern i n Annexes I I and I V
can f u r n i s h i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e number and types o f f a m i l i e s ( f o r example, whether
one male o r female p a r e n t o n l y 'is p r e s e n t ) , on s i z e o f f a m i l i e s and on f a m i l y
formation and d i s s o l u t i o n . Since these circumstances and t h e i r impact on condi'
t i o n s o f w e l f a r e may, i n a number o f c o u n t r i e s , vary between urban and r u r a l com-
m u n i t i e s o r among e t h n i c groups, these c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s a r e a l s o useful here.''

i (c) State of health o f the population

The G u i d e l i n e s discuss t h e uses o f s o c i a l i n d i c a t o r s f o r a n a l y s i s of t h e

s t a t e of h e a l t h of t h e p o p u l a t i o n i n t h e f o l l o w i n g words: "5.42 Because o f t h e
conceptua1,and p r a c t i c a l d i f f i c u l t i e s o f the d i r e c t measurement o f good h e a l t h ,
i n d i r e c t s e r i e s and i n d i c a t o r s for t h i s purpose a r e shown i n Annexes I I and I V .
These measures deal w i t h number and r a t e s o f death, which a r e o v e r - a l l measures
of t h e e f f e c t s o f poor h e a l t h , and t h e prevalence and s e v e r i t y of s e l e c t e d com-
municable disease.

."5.43 Death r a t e s c l a s s i f i e d according t o cause, age and sex p o i n t t o

the important s t a t e s and circumstances o f poor h e a l t h t h a t l e a d t o deaths, and
t o v u l n e r a b l e groups. A t t e n t i o n may a l s o be focused on r a t e s of neo-natal, post-
neo-natal and maternal deaths; these r a t e s tend t o be h i g h r e l a t i v e t o o t h e r
death r a t e s and a r e t h e r e f o r e t h e s u b j e c t o f major concern. Expectations of
years o f l i f e a t s e l e c t e d ages f u r n i s h u s e f u l comprehensive measures o f m o r t a l i t y "

2. MONITORING PROGRESS TOWARD ACHIEVING GOALS

(a) F i r s t U n i t e d Nations Development Decade

As i n d i c a t e d e a r l i e r i n t h i s paper, s o c i a l i n d i c a t o r s may be used t o

d e t e c t i n c i p i e n t s o c i a l problems; t o formulate p o l i c i e s and programmes; to es;
t a b l i s h scales i n terms o f - w h i c h t a r g e t s can be s e t ; and t o m o n i t o r o r e v a l u a t e
success o r f a i l u r e i n a c h i e v i n g these t a r g e t l e v e l s . A t t h e n a t i o n a l l e v e l ,
m o n i t o r i n g i s perhaps t h e most important. As noted above, t h e f i r s t U n i t e d
Nations Development Decade ( f o r t h e 1960s) made few suggestions f o r i n d i v i d u a l
s o c i a l i n d i c a t o r s t h a t might be used t o monitor achievement i n connection w i t h
the goals o f t h e Decade. No i n d i c a t o r s o f p o p u l a t i o n change were suggested,
probably because p o p u l a t i o n as such had n o t y e t been recognized as an i n t e g r a l
p a r t of development planning. The o n l y reference t o a s o c i a l i n d i c a t o r .derived
f r o m v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s occurred i n connection w i t h "Health Targets f o r Develop-~ .
ment" (1962). Here, i t was s t a t e d t h a t "The t h i r d component o f a p o s s i b l e pro-
gramme of p u b l i c h e a l t h development i s t h e establishment as b a s e l i n e s o f c e r t a i n
i n d i c e s o f t h e c u r r e n t h e a l t h s i t u a t i o n o f c o u n t r i e s so t h a t progress toward cer-
t a i n h e a l t h goals can b e measured." I t goes on t o suggest t h a t "Target f i g u r e s
f o r t h e decade should be s e t i n , for example, t h e f o l l o w i n g , f i e l d s : (a) I n f a n t
mortality. The present l e v e l should be a s c e r t a i n e d and e f f o r t s ' m a d e t o lower
i t . Success a t t a i n e d - i n a c h i e v i n g a more f a v o r a b l e age composition o f t h e more -
r a p i d l y growing p o p u l a t i o n groups w i 1 1 lead t o g r e a t e r soci.ca1 we1 1-being. (b)
Communicable diseases. The incidence o f diseases such as m a l a r i a , smallpox, and
o t h e r p r e v a l e n t communicable ,diseases should be a s c e r t a i n e d - a n d e f f o r t s made t o
e r a d i c a t e them, o r a t l e a s t t o reduce t h e i r incidence t o t h e p o i n t where they
cease t o be p u b l i c h e a l t h problems." I t i s assumed t h a t t h e second t a r g e t would

be measured by death r a t e s by cause, inasmuch as m o r b i d i t y s t a t i s t i c s a r e l e s s

developed than m o r t a l i t y s t a t i s t i c s i n developing c o u n t r i e s .

(b) Second U n i t e d Nations Development Decade

The Second U n i t e d Nations Development Decade, on t h e o t h e r hand, was

accompanied by t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l Development S t r a t e g y (19701, t h e A c t i o n Pro-
gramme o f t h e General Assembly f o r t h e Decade. As noted above, p e r i o d i c review
and a p p r a i s a l o f t h e o b j e c t i v e s o f t h e Decade were g i v e n a very important place,
and i t would be expected t h a t each o f t h e i n d i c a t o r s recommended f o r m o n i t o r i n a I

performance would be r o u t i n e l y used. The S t r a t e g y i t s e l f does n o t c o n t a i n any

s p e c i f i c t a r g e t i n d i c a t o r s d e r i v e d from v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s .

One i n d i c a t o r t h a t c o u l d be d e r i v e d f r o m v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s was mentioned

i m p l i c i t l y i n para. 15 o f t h e S t r a t e g y where i t was s t a t e d t h a t "The t a r g e t f o r
growth i n average income p e r head i s c a l c u l a t e d on t h e b a s i s o f an average annual
increase o f 2.5 percent i n t h e p o p u l a t i o n of developing countries..:.'''

I n para. 18 (c), t h e need f o r i n d i c a t o r s based on v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s i s

i m p l i c i t i n connection w i t h the f o r m u l a t i o n , i n each developing country, o f "...
a coherent h e a l t h programme f o r t h e p r e v e n t i o n and treatment o f diseases and f o r
r a i s i n g general l e v e l s of h e a l t h . . . . I ' I n a d d i t i o n , t h e S t r a t e g y noted ( i n para.
65) t h a t "Those developing c o u n t r i e s which consider t h a t t h e i r r a t e of p o p u l a t i o n
growth hampers t h e i r development w i l l adopt measures which they deem necessary i n
accordance w i t h t h e i r concept o f development." Such t a r g e t s would r e q u i r e a
c o u n t r y t o have continuous i n f o r m a t i o n on i t s r a t e of n a t u r a l increase, a s t a t i s -
t i c a l i n d i c a t o r w i d e l y recommended and 'one dependent on knowledge o f t h e crude
b i r t h r a t e and t h e crude death r a t e . I n connection w i t h e s t a b l i s h i n g a t l e a s t a
minimum programme of h e a l t h f a c i l i t i e s , Phet S t r a t e g y p o i n t s o u t , as d i d t h e F i r s t
U n i t e d Nations Development Decade, t h a t "A concerted i n t e r n a t i o n a l e f f o r t w i l l be
made t o mount a world-wide campaign:to e r a d i c a t e by t h e end o f t h e Decade, from
as many c o u n t r i e s as p o s s i b l e , one o r & r e diseases t h a t s t i l l s e r i o u s l y a f f l i c t
people i n many lands." Such atcampaign would, of n e c e s s i t y , be based on know-
ledge o f deaths by cause, because m o r b i d i t y s t a t i s t i c s i n developing c o u n t r i e s
a r e almost n o n e x i s t e n t . B u t , - d e s p i t e these i m p l i c i t t a r g e t s , such goals as
l o w e r i n g t h e i n f a n t mortal i t y r a t e or, indeed, general m o r t a l i t y , a r e m i s s i n g
from t h e Second Development Decade S t r a t e g y (1970).

(c) T h i r d U n i t e d Nations Development Decade

The I n t e r n a t i o n a l Development S t r a t e g y f o r t h e T h i r d -United Nations

Deve 1opmen t, Decade ( 198 1a) was adopted by Genera 1 Assemb 1y Reso 1 u t i o n A/RES/35/56
on 5 December 1980. The S t r a t e g y c o n s i s t s of f o u r p a r t s : 1 . Preamble; 1 1 . Goals
and O b j e c t i v e s ; 1 1 1 . P o l i c y Measures, and I V . Review and A p p r a i s a l of the Imple-
mentation o f the new I n t e r n a t i o n a l Development Strategy.

Under "Goals and Objectives," t h e S t r a t e g y p o i n t s o u t t h a t "The i n t e r -

n a t i o n a l community recognizes t h e need f o r c o u n t r i e s t o c o n t i n u e t o s t r e n g t h e n
t h e i r implementation of t h e recommendations o f t h e World P o p u l a t i o n Plan of
Action'' emphasizing, t h e r e f o r e , t h a t "The r e d u c t i o n of m o r t a l i t y r a t e s w i 1 1 be a
major o b j e c t i v e . I n t h e poorest c o u n t r i e s , i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y should be reduced
t o l e s s than 120 p e r 1,000 l i v e b i r t h s . L i f e expectancy i n a l l c o u n t r i e s should
reach 60 years, as a minimum, and i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y r a t e s should reach 50 p e r
1,000 l i v e b i r t h s , as a maximum, by t h e year 2,000."
! .

10
 The process of review and appraisal forms an integral and very important

part of the third International Development Strategy. According to the Resolu-

tion, "the process will consist of systematic scrutiny, within the context made

towards achieving the goals and objectives of the Strategy and the identifica-

tion and appraisal of the factors which account for shortfalls that may be en-

countered." For carrying out these appraisals, indicators derived from vital

statistics would be essential.

(d) International Dills of Human Rights

Perhaps the most far-reaching international instrument that sets speci-

fic goals or targets for achievement and that uses indicators derived from vital
statistics for evaluating performance, is the International Covenant on Economic,
Social and Cultural Rights (1973b) that came into force in 1976. This Covenant,
in Article 12(2), calls upon States Parties to the Covenant to provide "for re-
duction of the stillbirth rate and of infant mortality ..." as an element in
achieving implementation of the "Right to Health." The first step in achieving
the full realization of this Right must be the determination of the current
levels of the stillbirth rate and the infant mortality rate as indicators of
health status. Only with knowledge of such baseline indicators can a country
develop a programme for the reduction of the rates. And, only with continuous
evaluation of the levels and trends of the rates can the country gauge its pro-
gress in achieving the goal of the reduction.

(e) World Population Plan of Action

Most importan't in the setting of goals that could be monitored by social

indicators derived from vital statistics was the World Population Plan of Action
(1975), adopted by the 135 Governments that participated in the World Population
Conference, convened by the United Nations in 1974. The - Plan must be considered
as a very important component of the system of international strategies, and as _.
an instrument of the international community for the promotion of economic devel-
opment, quality of life, humane rights and fundamental freedoms.

Recommendations for Action made by the Conference fall into three prin-

cipal sectors, namely, "Population goals and policies,'' "Socio-economic policies,''

and "Promotion of knowledge and policies.'' Indicators derived from vi tal statis-

tics play a role in the first and third of thes'e. Their uses for monitoring

population goals are set forth in paras. 18, 22, 23 and 24:

"18. Countries which aim at achieving moderate or low population

growth should try to achieve it through a low level of birth and

death ra.tes. Countries wishing to increase their rate of popula-

tion growth should, when mortality is high, concentrate efforts

on the reduction of mortality, and where appropriate, encourage

an increase in fertility and encourage immigration,

"22. It is a goal o f this Plan of Action to reduce.mortality

levels, particularly infant and maternal mortality,levels,to
the maximum extent possible in all regions of the world and to
reduce national and subnational difcferentialstherein. The
attainment of an average expectation of li,fe o f 62 years by
1985 and 74 years by the year 2000 for the world as a whole
would require by the end of the century ,an increase of 1 1 years
for Latin America, 17 years for Asia, and 28 years for Africa.

11

 sdwlthnthe h i g h e s t m o r t a l i t y l e v e l s should aim by

sns8xpectetdon o f l i f e a t b i r t h o f a l e a s t 50 years
s b r t a 4 l t y r a t e o f l e s s than 120 per thousand l i v e

ed t h a t n a t i o n a l and i n t e r n a t i o n a l e f f o r t s
m o r b i d i t y and m o r t a l i t y l e v e l s be accompanied
byhtperti,cularly vigorous e f f o r t s t o achieve the f o l lowing goal :

it ..\<t (a) Reduction o f f o e t a l , i n f a n t and e a r l y c h i l d h o o d

r e l a t e d maternal m o r b i d i t y and m o r t a l i t y . "

I
t y of n a t i o n a l goals w i t h regard t o f e r t i l i t y , the,
i o n does n o t recommend any w o r l d f a m i l y - s i z e norm.
But, i t does p o i n t o u t t h a t " t h e p r o j e c t i o n s ... i n para. 22 concerning increased
e x p e c t a t i o n o f l i f e a r e c o n s i s t e n t w i t h d e c l i n e s i n t h e b i r t h - r a t e o f t h e devel-
o p i n g c o u n t r i e s as a whole from t h e p r e s e n t l e v e l o f 38 p e r thousand to 30 p e r
thousand by 1985; i n these p r o j e c t i o n s , b i r t h - r a t e s i n t h e developed c o u n t r i e s
remain i n t h e r e g i o n o f 15 p e r thousand . . . . ' I

The Plan goes on t o n o t e t h a t "Countries which d e s i r e t o reduce t h e i r

birth-rates are i n v i t e d t o give p a r t i c u l a r consideration t o the reduction o f
f e r t i l i t y a t t h e extremes o f female r e p r o d u c t i v e ages because o f t h e s a l u t a r y
e f f e c t s t h i s may have on i n f a n t and maternal welfare."

I t i s e v i d e n t t h a t t h e g o a l s o f t h e World P o p u l a t i o n P l a n o f A c t i o n s e t
f o r t h above, b e i n g s t a t i s t i c a l i n nature, would demand s t a t i s t i c a l i n d i c a t o r s
f o r m o n i t o r i n g progress. A t a minimurn, these would appear t o i n c l u d e ( 1 ) crude
b i r t h r a t e ; (2) crude death r a t e ; (3) i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y r a t e ; (4) maternal m o r t a l -
i t y r a t e ; (5) e x p e c t a t i o n o f l i f e a t b i r t h ; (6) f o e t a l death r a t e ; (7) e a r l y
c h i l d h o o d m o r t a l i t y r a t e ; (8) death r a t e by age and sex, and (9) b i r t h r a t e by
age o f mother and sex. With t h e s o l e e x c e p t i o n of the f o e t a l death r a t e , a l l o f
these have been recommended o r suggested b y i n t e r n a t i o n a l governing bodies f o r
computation by n a t i o n a l o f f i c e s .

( f ) World Plan o f A c t i o n f o r t h e ImDlementation o f . t h e O b i e c t i v e s o f

t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l Women's Year (1976) :

This i s another World P l a n i n a s e c t o r a l area t h a t s e t s f o r t h t a r g e t s

f o r achievement over t h e p e r i o d 1976-1985, and thereby suggests t h e need f o r
s t a t i s t i c a l i n d i c a t o r s f o r measuring progress. Adopted by t h e World Conference
o f t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l Women's Year, and endorsed by t h e General Assembly o f t h e
U n i t e d Nations a t i t s 30th Session i n mid-December 1975, t h e P l a n represents a 0

g l o b a l consensus of what should be done t o improve t h e c o n d i t i o n s o f women.

I

One goal o f p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r e s t i n t h e use o f s o c i a l i n d i c a t o r s d e r i v e d

from v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s t o monitor performance i s t h e recommendation t h a t "Pro-
grammes should be formulated for t h e r e d u c t i o n o f i n f a n t , c h i l d and maternal
.
m o r t a l i ty.. . I ' Obviously, t h e m o n i t o r i n g o f t h e success o f such programmes must
depend on s t a t i s t i c a l i n d i c a t o r s of t h e l e v e l s and trends of t h e i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y
r a t e , t h e maternal m o r t a l i t y r a t e and the c h i l d h o o d m o r t a l i t y r a t e ; a l l t h r e e
a r e among t h e recommended v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s i n d i c a t o r s .

I n c o n s i d e r i n g "The Family i n Modern Society,'' the Plan proposes t h a t

" L e g i s l a t i o n r e l a t i n g t o marriage should be i n conformity w i t h i n t e r n a t i o n a l
standards. I n p a r t i c u l a r . . .a min mum age f o r marriage should be f i x e d by I,aw ....
O f f i c i a l r e g i s t r a t i o n o f marriage should be made compulsory." A measure f o r mon-
i t o r i n g progress i n t h i s area cou d be t h e crude marriage r a t e and t h e age-speci-
f i c marriage r a t e s .

Under "Population", t h e P l a n endorses the recommendations o f t h e World

P o p u l a t i o n Plan o f A c t i o n (19751, e s p e c i a l l y those r e l a t i n g t o t h e s t a t u s o f
women, and notes t h a t a number o f c r u c i a l demographic v a r i a b l e s a r e c l o s e l y i n t e r -
r e l a t e d w i t h t h e f u l l p a r t i c i p a t i o n o f women i n n a t i o n a l l i f e ; these i n c l u d e
"age a t marriage, age a t b i r t h of f i r s t c h i l d , the l e n g t h of i n t e r v a l between
b i r t h s , age a t t e r m i n a t i o n of c h i l d - b e a r i n g , and t o t a l number o f c h i l d r e n born."
The Plan goes on t o p o i n t o u t t h a t when a l l these elements a r e added t o t h e
h e a l t h hazzards o f c h i l d - b e a r i n g , i n many n a t i o n s , i t i s c l e a r t h a t demographic
f a c t o r s a r e a major aspect of t h e s o c i a l and economic environment a f f e c t i n g t h e
s t a t u s o f women.

To be u s e f u l , each o f t h e f a c t o r s l i s t e d above must be perceived as a

s o c i a l i n d i c a t o r d e r i v e d from v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s . Possible s t a t i s t i c a l series t o
produce such r a t e s a r e (1) marriages by age o f b r i d e and groom; (2) b i r t h s by
age of mother and b i r t h order, and (3) b i r t h s by b i r t h i n t e r v a l . Two o f these
a r e among t h e v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s i n d i c a t o r s recommended or suggested, as shown i n
t h e Annex.

(9) Programme of A c t i o n for t h e Second H a l f o f t h e U n i t e d Nations

Decade f o r Women; Equal i t y , Development and Peace (1980b)

A1 though t h e Programme recommends ''a comprehensive and c r i t i c a l b i e n n i a l

review and a p p r a i s a l of progress achieved i n implementing t h e p r o v i s i o n s of t h e
World Plan o f A c t i o n and of t h e Programme f o r t h e Second H a l f o f t h e Decade,'' i t
does n o t e x p l i c i t l y c i t e any t a r g e t s t o be used i n t h i s e x e r c i s e . The o n l y
r e f e r e n c e t o t a r g e t s u t i l i z i n g v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s i n d i c a t o r s occurs i n p r i o r i t y
areas f o r a c t i o n i n "Health" where i t i s noted t h a t "Family P l a n n i n g should be '

f a c i l i t a t e d as one means of reducing maternal and i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y where h i g h

r i s k f a c t o r s p r e v a i l , such as h i g h p a r i t y , t o o frequent pregnancies, pregnancies
a t t h e extremes o f the r e p r o d u c t i v e age, and t h e frequency and dangers o f
s e c r e t l y performed abortions." T h i s , i n e f f e c t , i s a r e i t e r a t i o n o f one o f the
goals o f t h e World Population Plan o f A c t i o n and o f t h e World P l a n o f A c t i o n f o r
t h e Implementation o f t h e O b j e c t i v e s o f t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l Women's Year.

C. AVAILABILITY OF RELIABLE VITAL STATISTICS INDICATORS AND RECOMMENDED ACTION

Since t h e very beginning o f t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l work on developing a s e t o f

s t a t i s t i c a l i n d i c a t o r s f o r measuring progress i n economic and s o c i a l development,
t h e r e has been wide r e c o g n i t i o n o f t h e f a c t t h a t r e l i a b l e d a t a t o support such
i n d i c a t o r s were n o t w i d e l y a v a i l a b l e e s p e c i a l l y i n developing c o u n t r i e s .

For example, t h e 1954 Report on I n t e r n a t i o n a l D e f i n i t i o n and Measurement o f

Standards and Levels o f L i v i n g s t a t e d t h a t " C e r t a i n l y i n no c o u n t r y i n t h e w o r l d
today a r e s t a t i s t i c s c o l l e c t e d and compiled i n an e n t i r e l y - s a t i s f a c t o r y manner
f o r purposes of measuring t h e l e v e l of l i v i n g o r changes t h e r e i n . Even i n t h e
more-developed c o u n t r i e s t h e s t a t i s t i c s c u r r e n t l y compiled have i n t h e main n o t
been designed f o r t h e express purpose of measuring l e v e l s o f 1 i v i n g and a r e gen-
e r a l l y n o t as w e l l adapted as they might be f o r i n t e r n a t i o n a l s t u d i e s . The pro-
blem i s , o f course, much more a c u t e i n t h e less-developed areas. I n many such
areas o n l y rudimentary s t a t i s t i c a l systems a r e t o be found and a s a t i s f a c t o r y

13

statistical output cannot be expected unti 1 competent statistical personnel are

trained and adequate provision made in budget and other facilities for statisti-
cal work." The Committee included in its report Table A showing availability of I
statistics referring to "priority indicators," by continents. Life expectancy at
birth was one of these as was the infant mortality rate. The table revealed that
life expectancy data were available for only 52 countries out of 176 and, for 23 i
of these, data were incomplete o r obsolete. infant mortality rates were avail- i
i
able somewhat more widely, that is, in 87 countries but of these, data for 49

were incomplete o r obsolete. The lack of adequate data for these and other indi-
cators induced the Committee to lay great stress on the need to improve statisti-

cal services, recognizing that "the development of adequate statistical facili-

i
ties necessarily takes a number of years and is in some measure dependent upon

general economic and social development." I

I

As far back as 1961, the inter-agency Working Party on Statistics for Social
Programmes (1961) noted that, despite the long use of the infant mortality rate, !
the crude annual death rate and the expectation of life at girth as measures of 1
general levels of health, "the use of these indicators is ...limited by lack of
i
I
reliable data for many countries and territories of the world." The Report went I
on to state that "The next round of censuses which will make available data on
age structure of population should increase the number of countries for which it
i
1
will be possible to make estimates of expectation of life." But it pointed out i
that "the real difficulty is that data involving fertility and mortality rates
cannot be more reliable than the registration of births and deaths from which
the data are derived. Since the completeness of registration is in turn related
i
to the general level of social and economic development of the country concerned,

the problem of obtaining reliable data for the less developed countries is a
i
1
1
very real one."

In the area of population, the World Programme for the improvement of Vital

i
Statistics (1968b), adopted by the Economic and Social Council of the United

Nations in Resolution 1307 (XLIV) of 31 May 1968, put special emphasis on the

inadequacy of statistics of births and deaths for planning purposes.

The target of the Programme was "to push forward the development of reliable
civi 1 registers of vi tal events.. . . ' I To achieve thi's goal , it was recommended
that "States Members of the United Nations endeavour to establish a system of
vital records and statistics, or to improve the existing system, to the level
where it will yield, in particular, reliable statistics of births and deaths,
adequate, i n t e r aZia, to meet the needs of economic and social development plan-
ning.. ..''

The first United Nations Development Decade: Proposals f o r Action (1962)

recognized that "The lack of basic economic and social statistics and surveys in
many of the developing countries is a well-known obstacle to progress since it
deprives the Governments of an adequate quantitative basis for their development
plans....'' With respect to demographic statistics, the report went on to say
that "Development planning is also hampered in the majority of developing coun-
tries by the lack of an adequate foundation of basic demographic research.''

The acknowledged inadequacy of statistical data led to the inclusion in the

General Assembly Resolution 1710 (XVI) that proclaimed the first United Nations

Development Decade reference to "The need to review facilities for the collection,

collation, analysis and dissemination of statistical and other information re-

quired for charting economic and social development and for providing constant

measurement of progress toward the objectives of the Decade."

14

5
~ ~ _ _ _ _ _
~
-~___
 I n s e t t i n g f o r t h t h e "Requirements f o r Over-a1 1 Appraisal'' o f t h e o b j e c t i v e s
and p o l i c i e s o f t h e second U n i t e d Nations Development Decade (1971a), t h e Secre-
t a r y General o f t h e U n i t e d Nations made perhaps t h e most d e t a i l e d and s p e c i f i c
i n d i c t m e n t o f s t a t i s t i c s a v a i l a b l e f o r m o n i t o r i n g performance. He noted t h a t
"An examination o f data a v a i l a b i l i t i e s ... suggests t h a t t h e r e a r e t h r e e d i s t i n c t
types o f d e f i c i e n c i e s : the f i r s t i s t h e complete absence o f data where t h e
phenomenon i n q u e s t i o n i s j u s t n o t measured. The second i s the t a r d i n e s s o f t h e
data, where t h e lapse o f time between t h e phenomenon, i t s measurement and t h e
a v a i l a b i l i t y o f t h e r e l e v a n t s t a t i s t i c s i s so g r e a t t h a t t h e i r relevance and
usabi 1 i t y f o r purposes o f p o l i c y f o r m u l a t i o n a r e s e v e r e l y reduced. Final l y , the
t h i r d i s t h e poor q u a l i t y of data - whether because o f ambiguous d e f i n i t i o n s ,
i n a c c u r a t e c o l l e c t i o n and recording, inadequate coverage o r excessive r e s o r t t o
estimation, the r e s u l t i n g s t a t i s t i c s lack a u t h e n t i c i t y . I n a l l these cases,
t h e r e i s a need t o strengthen t h e n a t i o n a l s t a t i s t i c a l s e r v i c e s i n ways t h a t w i l l
impose t h e l e a s t p o s s i b l e increase i n r e a l c o s t ( i n money as w e l l as the s k i l l e d
and scarce manpower) . I '

The I n t e r n a t i o n a l Development S t r a t e g y f o r t h e T h i r d U n i t e d Nations Develop-

ment Decade (1981) made reference t o t h e p o s s i b l e inadequacy o f data f o r purposes
o f review and a p p r a i s a l o f the implementation of t h e s t r a t e g y i n t h e f o l l o w i n g
words:' "Where necessary, t h e e v a l u a t i o n c a p a c i t y , comprising a l s o t h e s t a t i s t i -
c a l c a p a b i l i t y ' o f t h e c o u n t r i e s concerned s h o u l d be strengthened."

I t was t h e v a r i o u s s e c t o r a l World Plans t h a t recognized more s p e c i f i c a l l y

t h e d e f i c i e n c i e s i n a v a i l a b l e demographic data. One of t h e most important s t a t e -
ments i n t h i s regard was made i n t h e World P l a n o f A c t i o n f o r t h e A p p l i c a t i o n o f
Science and Technology f o r Development (1971b) approved by t h e U n i t e d Nations
Advisory Committee on t h a t s u b j e c t a t i t s 14th Session i n 1971 as i t s p r i n c i p a l
c o n t r i b u t i o n t o t h e Programme o f A c t i o n f o r t h e Second U n i t e d Nations Develop-
ment Decade. -
I n d i s c u s s i n g "Basic P o p u l a t i o n S t a t i s t i c s , " t h e P lan p o i n t e d o u t
t h a t " I n most developing c o u n t r i e s , t h e shortage and l i m i t e d r e l i a b i l i t y o f
demographic and r e l a t e d s t a t i s t i c s i s a major handicap i n d e a l i n g w i t h the many
aspects o f development planning i n c l u d i n g p o p u l a t i o n a c t i o n programmes.. .. Al-
though c o n s i d e r a b l e progress has been made i n recent years, most developing coun-
t r i e s s t i l l l a c k a r e l i a b l e v i t a l r e g i s t r a t i o n system and t h e r e f o r e l a c k im-
p o r t a n t data r e q u i r e d f o r economic and s o c i a l planning.'' The Plan c i t e d as i t s
goal t h a t f i r s t s e t f o r t h i n t h e 1968 World Programme f o r t h e Improvement o f
V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s (1968b), namely, " t o e s t a b l i s h i n every c o u n t r y by t h e end o f ,
the Decade a system of v i t a l records and s t a t i s t i c s o r t o improve t h e e x i s t i n g
system t o t h e l e v e l where they w i l l y i e l d r e l i a b l e data on b i r t h s , deaths, mar-
riages, etc."

The World P o p u l a t i o n Plan o f A c t i o n (1975) s i m i l a r l y emphasized t h a t "sta-

t i s t i c a l d a t a on t h e p o p u l a t i o n c o l l e c t e d by means o f censuses, surveys and v i t a l
s t a t i s t i c s r e g i s t e r s , a r e e s s e n t i a l f o r t h e p l a n n i n g o f i n v e s t i g a t i o n s and t h e
p r o v i s i o n o f a b a s i s f o r the f o r m u l a t i o n , e v a l u a t i o n and a p p l i c a t i o n o f popula-
t i o n and development p o l i c i e s . " I t went on t o urge t h a t , " i n l i n e w i t h t h e
o b j e c t i v e s o f t h e World Programme f o r t h e Improvement o f V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s (1968b),
c o u n t r i e s a r e encouraged t o e s t a b l i s h o r improve t h e i r v i t a l r e g i s t r a t i o n system,
'as a long-term o b j e c t i v e , and t o enact laws r e l e v a n t t o t h e improvement o f v i t a l
registration.'' Under "Research", -
t h e P l a n proposed t h a t "development o f s o c i a l
i n d i c a t o r s , r e f l e c t i n g the q u a l i t y o f l i f e as w e l l as t h e i n t e r r e l a t i o n s between
socio-economic and depbgraphic phenomena, should be encouraged."

15

 , I n i t s f i r s t review and a p p r a i s a l o f t h e progress made towards implementa-

a t i o n o f bhe World Population Plan o f A c t i o n , t h e Economic and Social C o u n c i l , i n
a r e s o l u t i o n e n t i t l e d "Strenqthening o f A c t i o n Concerned w i t h t h e F u l f i l l m e n t o f
t h e World P o p u l a t i o n Plan o f - A c t i o n " (1979) made recommendations concerning
p r i : o r i t y areas f o r a c t i o n . Among these was a reminder t o Governments o f the
"urgent need t o develop and improve v i t a l r e g i s t r a t i o n systems and demographic
s t a t i s t i c s i n o r d e r t o o b t a i n a c c u r a t e and t i m e l y i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e e v o l u t i o n
o f f e r t i l i t y , m o r t a l i t y and m i g r a t i o n . . . . ' I

The World Plan o f A c t i o n f o r t h e Implementation o f t h e O b j e c t i v e s o f t h e

I n t e r n a t i o n a l Women's Year (1976) g i v e s h i g h p r i o r i t y t o data c o l l e c t i o n and
a n a l y s i s and s t a t e s c a t e g o r i c a l l y t h a t "adequate data and i n f o r m a t i o n a r e essen-
t i a l i n f o r m u l a t i n g p o l i c i e s and e v a l u a t i n g progress....'' I t goes on t o recom-
mend t h a t "A s c i e n t i f i c and r e l i a b l e data base should be e s t a b l i s h e d and s u i t a b l e
economic and s o c i a l i n d i c a t o r s u r g e n t l y developed which a r e s e n s i t i v e t o t h e
p a r t i c u l a r s i t u a t i o n and needs o f women as an i n t e g r a l p a r t o f n a t i o n a l and i n t e r -
n a t i o n a l programmes o f s t a t i s t i c s . ' '

F i n a l l y , t h e Programme o f A c t i o n f o r t h e Second H a l f o f the U n i t e d Nations,

Decade f o r Women (1980b), which i s based on a review o f progress made d u r i n g t h e
f i r s t h a l f o f t h e Decade and t h e o b s t a c l e s encountered i n implementing t h e World
Plan o f A c t i o n (1976), endorsed t h e p r i n c i p l e s and o b j e c t i v e s o f t h e 1975 Confer-
ence, and proclaimed several " p r i o r i t y areas f o r action.'' I n the h e a l t h f i e l d ,
t h e Conference emphasized the need t o "develop s i m p l e economic, s o c i a l and c u l -
t u r a l indica-tors i n o r d e r t o o b t a i n b e t t e r d a t a on trends i n m o r b i d i t y and mor-
t a l i t y among women ...."
D. CONCLUS IONS

The purpose o f t h i s paper was t o t r a c e t h e development o f s o c i a l i n d i c a t o r s

i n t h e U n i t e d Nations, t o prove t h a t i n d i c a t o r s d e r i v e d f r o m v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s
c o n s t i t u t e a reasonably l a r g e segment o f t h e f u l l a r r a y o f s o c i a l i n d i c a t o r s , t o
suggest t h e uses such i n d i c a t o r s might have, and t o c o n s i d e r t h e i r adequacy for
these purposes.

I t has been demonstrated t h a t v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s i n d i c a t o r s a r e an i n t e g r a l

and r e l a t i v e l y l a r g e p a r t o f t h e f u l l a r r a y o f s o c i a l i n d i c a t o r s . Indeed, t h e
most r e c e n t G u i d e l i n e s on s o c i a l i n d i c a t o r s approved by t h e U n i t e d Nations i n
1976 show t h a t , o u t of a t o t a l o f 149 i n d i c a t o r s , f u l l y 36 a r e d e r i v e d f r o m
vital statistics. T h i s i s a remarkable i n c r e a s e s i n c e 1954 when t h e Committee
o f Experts proposed v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s i n d i c a t o r s ( i n c l u d i n g 3 "next steps") among
a t o t a l o f 40. Since t h i s simple b e g i n n i n g i n 1954, some e i g h t a d d i t i o n a l s e t s
o f s t a t i s t i c a l i n d i c a t o r s have been promulgated f o r measuring degrees of econo-
mic and s o c i a l development. The v i t a l s t a t i s t i c s i n d i c a t o r s included i n a l l
n i n e s e t s a r e (1) t h e crude death r a t e , ( 2 ) t h e i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y r a t e , and ( 3 )
expectation o f l i f e a t b i r t h . The crude b i r t h r a t e was i n c l u d e d i n e i g h t
sources. The remaining i n d i c a t o r s had frequencies o f i n c l u s i o n of 4 o r l e s s ,
w i t h 21 appearing o n l y i n the P r e l i m i n a r y Guidelines, t h e most recent work i n
t h i s area.

V i t a l s t a t i s t i c s as w e l l as o t h e r s o c i a l s t a t i s t i c s a r e a d m i n i s t r a t i v e by- -.
products o f c a r r y i n g o u t some o f the r o u t i n e work o f governments. Many types o f
s o c i a l s t a t i s t i c s a r e thus r o u t i n e l y compiled b u t n o t enough a t t e n t i o n has been
p a i d t o t h e e s s e n t i a l r o l e such s t a t i s t i c s can p l a y i n measuring a c c u r a t e l y
changes t h a t a r e t a k i n g place i n c e r t a i n areas of s o c i a l concern. Work on

16

development of a system o f social indicators has occurred in response to this

def i ci ency .

To highlight the role that social indicators derived from vital statistics

can play in measuring changes that are taking place, the goals and targets of the

United Nations Development Strategies have been set forth, beginning with those

for the 1960s and ending with those for the 1980s. In addition, the goals of

several Plans of Action in sectoral areas have been cited as evidence of the need

for countries to develop and maintain civil registration systems to produce vital

statistics indicators, indicators that are accurate enough and sensitive enough

to serve as moni tors of change.

These same Development Strategies and Programmes of Action that give evidence

of the uses of indicators derived from vital statistics also recognize the inade-

quacies of !much national data for monitoring progress and appraising achievement

in reaching the goals set forth. Recognition of the serious handicaps that defi-

cient data can be to development planning and evaluation runs through almost all

Strategies and Plans of Action and these have been set forth in the paper.

Most systems that exist in developing countries do not produce reliable

vital statistics, capable of monitoring progress. It is hoped that the emphasis

now being placed on the full array of social indicators and the integration of

social and demographic statistics, especially for developing countries, may serve

as an additional stimulous to countries to increase emphasis on establishing or

improving systems for registration of vital events and the compilation of reli-

able vital statisti.cs from these records.

It is abundantly clear that some priorities must be established if an im-

provement programme of vital records and statistics in a developing country is'to

be given tangible shape. The priorities extended to vital statistics by virtue

of their inclusion in an international system of social statistics indicators

should be of great assistance to countries in effecting improvements in their

conve.ntiona1 vi tal statistics systems.

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i n Human Rights: A Compilation o f I n t e r n a t i o n a l Instruments of t h e
U n i t e d Nations. ST.HR/l. U n i t e d Nations P u b l i c a t i o n , Sales No.:
E.73.XIV.2. New York. 106 p.

1 9 7 3 ~ : Economic and Social Council, 55th Session. 1 9 7 3 ~ . Report of t h e

Committee f o r Development Planning on i t s N i n t h Session. Official
Records o f t h e Economic and S o c i a l Council, Supplement No. 5. E/5293.
New York. 39 p.
I
1975: 1975. "World P o p u l a t i o n Plan o f Action" i n Report o f the U n i t e d Nations
World P o p u l a t i o n Conference, 1974. E/CONF.60/19. U n i t e d Nations P u b l i -
c a t i o n , Sales No.: E.75.XI11.3. New York. 147 p.
1976: 1976. "World Plan o f A c t i o n f o r the Implementation o f t h e O b j e c t i v e s of
t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l Women's Year," i n Report o f t h e World Conference o f
t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l Women's Year. E/CONF.66/34. U n i t e d Nations
P u b l i c a t i o n , Sales No.: E.76.IV.1. New York. 199 p.
Economic and S o c i a l Council, 62nd Session. 1977. S t a t i s t i c a l Gommis-
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1978: Department o f I n t e r n a t i o n a l Economic and S o c i a l A f f a i r s . Statistical
Office. 1978. S o c i a l I n d i c a t o r s : P r e l iminary Guide1 ines and I 1 l u s -
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m a l e s No.: E.78.XV11.8. New York. 134 p.
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New York. 1325 p.
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dopted 5 December 1980. New York, 43 p.

20

 ANNEX

I Source-
1/

I t

V i t a l S t a t i s t i c s Indicators

NATURAL INCREASE:
N a t u r a l increase r a t e (crude). ....
I- by age groups ..........
I- by age and sex. .........

by sex. .............

NATAL 1 TY :
. B i r t h r a t e (crude) . . . . . . . . . . x
x x x x x x x -
by age of mother. . . . . . . . . . ­ x - - - - x - -
by b i r t h order. . . . . . . . . .

I- by age of mother and b i r t h o r d e r .

..
I - by n a t i o n a l o r e t h n i c o r i g i n .
by socio-economic groups. . . . .
bysex. : ............

F e r t i l i t y rate (total) . . . . . . . .

Gross r e p r o d u c t i o n r a t e . .......

Net r e p r o d u c t i o n r a t e . ........

Percent o f b i r t h s attended by p h y s i c i a n
Percent o f b i r t h s attended by p h y s i c i a n
by n a t i o n a l o r e t h n i c o r i g i n ....
MORTAL ITY:
Death r a t e (crude) ..........
by age and sex. . . . . . . . . .
by age, sex and cause . . . . . .
by causes o f death. . . . . . . .
by s e l e c t e d causes and sex. ...
by n a t i o n a l or e t h n i c o r i g i n . ..

21

I- ......
by socio-economic group.

I- by s e x . ..............

Childhood (1-4 years) death r a t e . ....

by s e x . ..............

by sex and selected causes . . . . .

I n f a n t mortal it y r a t e . . . . . . . . . .
by selected causes of death and sex.
Neonatal mortal it y r a t e ..........
Post neonatal mortal it y rate. . . . . . .
Maternal mortal it y r a t e ......... X x - - - x -
Percent o f deaths due t o i n f e c t i o u s and
p a r a s i t i c diseases. .......... - x x -
Percent o f deaths aged.50 years and over. x x x x
Percent o f deaths aged 15 years and over
by sex. ................
X

Percent o f labour f o r c e who die, by age

and s e x . ...............
x -

Percent o f labour f o r c e who die, by sex . x -

Percent o f labour force who die, by I

occupation. ..............

EXPECTATION OF L I FE:
......
Expectation o f l i f e a t b i r t h .
at b i r t h and selected ages . . . . . - - x - - . - x ­ x
at b i r t h , selected ages and sex. . . x x - - - x x - . -

22

 1/
Source-

Vital Statistics Indicators

a t b i r t h , by sex. ..........

a t s e l e c t e d ages and n a t i o n a l o r
ethnic o r i g i n ...........
a t s e l e c t e d ages and s o c i o -
economic group. ..........
!
L

i NUPTIALITY:
Average annual marriage r a t e i n mar-
r i a g e a b l e p o p u l a t i o n by sex. ......
by age o f b r i d e and groom ......
by n a t i o n a l o r e t h n i c o r i g i n . ....
Average age of b r i d e and groom a t
f i r s t marriage .............

D IVORCE :
D i v o r c e r a t e (crude) ...........
o f m a r r i e d couples, 15 years
and over. .............

by average d u r a t i o n o f m a r r i a g e ...
by average d u r a t i o n o f m a r r i a g e
and age of p a r t n e r s ........

1-/ See l i s t o f References f o r complete c i t a t i o n s

23
I
 PUBLICATIONS OF THE IlVRS TECHNICAL PAPERS

1. A Programme for Measurement of Life and Death in Ghana, D.C. Mehta and J. B. Assie. June
1979

2. Vital Statistics System of Japan, Kozo Ueda and Masasuke Omori, August 1979

3. System of Identity Numbers in the Swedish Population Register, Karl-Johan Nilsson, September
1979

4. Vital Registration and Marriage in England and Wales, Office of Population Censuses and
Surveys, London, October 1979

5. Civil Registrationin the Republic of Argentina, Jorge P:Seara and Marcelo E. Martin, November
1979

6. Coordinating Role of National Committees on Vitaland Health Statistics, World Health Organiza-
tion, Geneva, January 1980

7. Human Rights and Registration of Vital Events, Nora P. Powell, March 1980

8. The Organization of the Civil Registration System of the United States, Anders S. Lunde. May
1980

9. Organization ofcivil Registrationand Vital Statistics System in India, P. Padmanabha. July 1980

10. Registration of Vital Events in Iraq, Adnan S. AI-Rabie, September 1980

11. Generation of VitalStatistics in Mexico, General Bureau of Statistics, Mexico, November 1980
I
12. Age Estimation Committee in Qatar, Saved A. Taj El Din, December 1980
t
13. The Development of the Vital Statistics System in Egypt, Gamal Askar, January 1981

14. Vital Statistics Data Collectionand compilation System: Hong Kong, Donna Shum, March 1981

15. Major Obstacles in Achieving Satisfactory Registration Practices and Vital Events and the Com-
pilation of Reliable Vital Staustics, IIVRS, May 1981

16. Methods and Problems of Civil Registration Practices and Vital Statistics Collection in Africa,
Torna J. Makannah, July 1981

17. Status of Civil Registrationand Vital statistics in El Salvador, Enrique Olmado Sosa. July 1982

18. Recommendations from Regional Conferences and Seminars on Civil Registration and Vital
Statistics,I IVR S , September 1982

19. Potentials of Records and Statistics from Civil Registration Systems for Health Administration
and Research, lwao M. Moriyama, September 1982

20. Improving Civil Registration Systems in Developing Countries, Forrest E. Linder. October 1982.

21. Social Indicators Derived form Vital Statistics, Nora P. Powell, November 1982