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DEPARTMENTÓ OF POTOSI

PROJECT ANALYSIS
12.0 DEPARTMENT OF POTOSI: PROJECT ANALYSIS………………………. 112.1 LINE
EXTENSION PROJECTS………………………………………………… 1
12.1.1 SUMMARY OF ANALYSIS………………………………………………………
1
12.1.2 Project Analysis……………………………………………………………. 1

Cala Cala Project………………………………………………………………….. 1

Panacachi Project…………………………………………………………………. 1
Revelo Project……………………………………………………………………… 1
Cotagaita Project………………………………………………………………….. 1
Coroma Project…………………………………………………………………….. 1
Tacobamba Project………………………………………………………………… 1
Urmiri Project………………………………………………………………………. 1
Sta. Lucia Project………………………………………………………………….. 1
Suipacha Project………………………………………………………………….. 1
12.2 ISOLATED SYSTEMS…………………………………………………………. 1
12.3 DISPERSED SYSTEMS……………………………………………………….. 1
12.3.1 PROJECT INVESTMENT
POTENTIAL…………………………………………… 1
12.3.2 Project Rankings…………………………………………………………. 1
12.3.3 Conclusions……………………………………………………………….. 1

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DEPARTMENT OF POTOSI

12.0 DEPARTMENT OF POTOSI: PROJECT ANALYSIS

In this Chapter, a detailed analysis of the potential for rural electrification projects in
the Department of Potosi is made. The analysis includes line extension projects,
isolated projects, and dispersed projects; and, in each case, the methodology
outlined in Chapter 6 is used.

12.1 LINE EXTENSION PROJECTS

12.1.1 Summary of Analysis

Using the GIS methodology described in Sec. 6.2, nine (9) line extension projects
have been identified in the Department of Potosi and analyzed. These projects
were previously identified by the Secretaria Nacional de Energía. Table 12.1.1 lists
each project, the project’s location, its cost, and ranking factors for the base case
scenario described in Sec. 6.2.4.c.

Table 12.1.1: Project Costs and Ranking Factors

Project Name Province Project Connections Cost/User NPVuser
Cost per km ($) ($000)
($000)
Cala Cala Rafael 64.9 3 1,443 95.6
Bustillo
Panacachi Rafael 115.2 4 1,206 169.0
Bustillo
Revelo Chayanta 126.4 7 685 174.8
Cotagaita Nor Chicas 300.0 2 1,821 398.2
Coroma Antonio 81.6 1 6,735 112.6
Quijarro
Tacobamba Cornelio 126.2 2 1,628 186.4
Saavedra
Urmiri Tomas 91.8 4 1,058 131.9
Frias
Sta. Lucia Tomas 27.0 4 1,111 38.9
Frias
Suipacha Sud Chicas 191.6 5 944 275.7

Total Investment 1,124.7

As noted in Sec. 6.2, the NPVuser indicator shows the initial payment which each
new user must pay in order for a project to be financially viable.

The total potential investment in the line extension projects listed in Table 12.1.1 is
$1,124,700. However, one notes that the projects do not meet the criteria stated

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in Chapter 6. Thus, one does not anticipate a high investment in line extension
projects in the rural areas of this Department unless the line extensions can include
a significant industrial or commercial demand or the projects are subsidized.

12.1.2 Project Analysis

Cala Cala Project

As shown in Fig. 12.1.1, the Cala Cala project involves the construction of a single
phase, 14.4 kV line from Uncia to Cala Cala. The total line length is 15 km. Two
communities would be connected in the canton of Cala Cala.

Table 12.1.2 shows the basic technical characteristics of this project including the
number of initial connections (users) and the number of connections projected in
the tenth year.

Table 12.1.2: Characteristics of the Cala Cala Project.

Project No. of Line User Initial Cost/User
Name Users Length s/km Demand ($)
(10th yr) (km) (kVA)
Cala Cala 49 (100) 15 3 11 1,443

Table 12.1.3 shows the results of the financial analysis for the five cases defined in
Sec. 6.2.4.c.

Table 12.1.3: Cala Cala Project Financial Analysis

CASE Tariff Donation Productive Project NPVuser
Use NPV
Base Case $0.045 0% 100% 95,627 $1,765
Case 1 $0.045 50% 100% $63,178 $1,168
Case 2 $0.045 0% 200% $93,828 $1,733
Case 3 $0.045 142% 100% $3.471 $68
Case 4 $0.240 0% 100% ($2,258) ($1)

The GIS analysis estimated the cost of this project at $64,900 and the number of
initial connections at 49. The number of customers per kilometer was 3. Thus,
neither the number of connections per kilometer nor the cost per connection meets
the criteria for project construction. Moreover, the financial analysis shows that a
high tariff ($0.240) or a subsidy of more than the capital cost of the project would
be needed to make the project viable.
Panacachi Project

As shown in Fig. 12.1.1, the Panacachi project consists of a single phase, 10 kV

line which taps off of the 10 kV line at Pujro and terminates in Panacachi. The line

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bifurcates twice with short extensions to the communities of Ecia. Khenwani and
Amayapampa in the cantons of Irupata and Amayapampa, respectively.

Table 12.1.4 shows the basic technical characteristics of this project including the
number of initial connections (users) and the number of connections projected in
the tenth year.

Table 12.1.4: Characteristics of the Panacachi Project.

Project No. of Line User Initial Cost/User
Name Users Length s/km Demand
(10th yr) (km) (kVA)
Panacachi 95 (143) 26 4 22 $1,206

Table 12.1.5 shows the results of the financial analysis for the five cases defined in
Sec. 6.2.4.c.

Table 12.1.5: Panacachi Project Financial Analysis

CASE Tariff Donation Productive Project NPVuser
Use NPV
Base Case $0.045 0% 100% $169,051 $1,471
Case 1 $0.045 50% 100% $111,470 $972
Case 2 $0.045 0% 200% $165,234 $1,439
Case 3 $0.045 140% 100% $7,594 $70
Case 4 $0.208 0% 100% ($4,087) ($1)

The GIS analysis estimated the cost of this project at $115,200 and the number of
initial connections at 95. The number of customers per kilometer was 4. Thus,
neither the number of connections per kilometer nor the cost per connection meets
the criteria for project construction. Moreover, the financial analysis shows that a
high tariff ($0.208) or a subsidy of more than the capital cost of the project would
be needed to make the project viable.

Revelo Project

As shown in Fig. 12.1.2, the Revelo project consists 26 km of single phase, 14.4
kV line from Ocuri to Revelo. Seventeen communities would be connected, eight
in the canton of Coquecota, two in the canton of Coque and seven in the canton of
Revelo.

Table 12.1.6 shows the basic technical characteristics of this project including the
number of initial connections (users) and the number of connections projected in
the tenth year.

Table 12.1.6: Characteristics of the Revelo Project.

Project No. of Line Users Initial Cost/User

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Name Users Length /km Deman

(10th yr) (km) d (kVA)
Revelo 185 103 2 23 $2,403
(271)

Table 12.1.7 shows the results of the financial analysis for the five cases defined in
Sec. 6.2.4.c.

Table 12.1.7: Revelo Project Financial Analysis

CASE Tariff Donation Productive Project NPVuser
Use NPV
Base Case $0.060 0% 100% $657,985 $2,983
Case 1 $0.060 50% 100% $435,236 $1,979
Case 2 $0.060 0% 200% $647,846 $2,937
Case 3 $0.060 145% 100% $14,470 $69
Case 4 $0.674 0% 100% ($13,722) ($2)

The GIS analysis estimated the cost of this project at $443,500 and the number of
initial connections at 185. The number of customers per kilometer was 2. Thus,
neither the number of connections per kilometer nor the cost per connection meets
the criteria for project construction. Moreover, the financial analysis shows that a
very high tariff of $0.674 per kWh or a subsidy of more than the capital cost of the
project would be needed to make the project viable.

Cotagaita Project

As shown in Fig. 12.1.3, the Cotagaita project consists of three single phase, 14.4
kV line segments from Palca Grande, where each segment taps off of the 24.9 kV
line, to the communities of Santiago de Cotagaita, Villa Abecia, and xxxx. The line
from Palca Grande to Santiago de Cotagaita bifurcates at Majuelo in order to
electrify the community of La Carreta. Twelve communities would be connected:
seven in the canton of Cotagaita, two in the canton of La Correta, and one each in
the cantons of Pampa Grande, Mormorque, and Vichoca.

Table 12.1.8 shows the basic technical characteristics of this project including the
number of initial connections (users) and the number of connections projected in
the tenth year.

Table 12.1.8: Characteristics of the Cotagaita Project.

Project No. of Line Users Initial Cost/User
Name Users Length /km Deman
(10th yr) (km) d (kVA)
Cotagaita 165 70 2 12 $1,821
(243)

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Table 12.1.9 shows the results of the financial analysis for the five cases defined in
Sec. 6.2.4.c.

Table 12.1.9: Cotagaita Project Financial Analysis

CASE Tariff Donation Productive Project NPVuser
Use NPV
Base Case $0.173 0% 100% $398,174 $2,024
Case 1 $0.173 50% 100% $248,167 $1,264
Case 2 $0.173 0% 200% $371,270 $1,889
Case 3 $0.173 129% 100% $12,355 $70
Case 4 $0.930 0% 100% ($8,900) $2

The GIS analysis estimated the cost of this project at $300,000 and the number of
initial connections at 165. The number of customers per kilometer was 2. Thus,
neither the number of connections per kilometer nor the cost per connection meets
the criteria for project construction. Moreover, the financial analysis shows that an
extremely high tariff of $0.930 per kWh or a subsidy of more than the capital cost of
the project would be needed to make the project viable.

Coroma Project

As shown in Fig. 12.1.4, the Coroma project consists of 20 km of single phase,

14.4 kV line which taps off of the 24.9 kV line at Rio Mulato and terminates in
Coroma. Four communities would be connected in the canton of Coroma.

Table 12.1.10 shows the basic technical characteristics of this project including the
number of initial connections (users) and the number of connections projected in
the tenth year.

Table 12.1.10: Characteristics of the Coroma Project.

Project No. of Line Users Initial Cost/User
Name Users Length /km Deman
(10th yr) (km) d (kVA)
Coroma 12 (20) 20 1 2 $6,735

Table 12.1.11 shows the results of the financial analysis for the five cases defined
in Sec. 6.2.4.c.

Table 12.1.11: Coroma Project Financial Analysis

CASE Tariff Donation Productive Project NPVuser
Use NPV
Base Case $0.060 0% 100% $122,632 $8,096
Case 1 $0.060 50% 100% $81,822 $5,403

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Case 2 $0.060 0% 200% $121,966 $8,053

Case 3 $0.060 149% 100% $936 $67
Case 4 $1.759 0% 100% ($3,500) $1

The GIS analysis estimated the cost of this project at $81,600 and the number of
initial connections at 12. The number of customers per kilometer was 1. Thus,
neither the number of connections per kilometer nor the cost per connection meets
the criteria for project construction. Moreover, the financial analysis shows that an
extremely high tariff of $1.759 per kWh or a subsidy of more than the capital cost of
the project would be needed to make the project viable.

Tacobamba Project

As shown in Fig. 12.1.5, the Tacobamba project consists of 28 km of single phase,

14.4 kV line from Colavi to Tacobamba. The line taps off of a 24.9 kV line in Colavi.
Nine communities would be connected: seven in the canton of Tacobamba and two
in the canton of Colavi.

Table 12.1.12 shows the basic technical characteristics of this project including the
number of initial connections (users) and the number of connections projected in
the tenth year.

Table 12.1.12: Characteristics of the Tacobamba Project.

Project No. of Line Users Initial Cost/User
Name Users Length /km Deman
(10th yr) (km) d (kVA)
Tacobamba 69 (112) 28 2 9 $1,828

Table 12.1.13 shows the results of the financial analysis for the five cases defined
in Sec. 6.2.4.c.

Table 12.1.13: Tacobamba Project Financial Analysis

CASE Tariff Donation Productive Project NPVuser
Use NPV
Base Case $0.060 0% 100% $186,419 $2,166
Case 1 $0.060 50% 100% $123,320 $1,435
Case 2 $0.060 0% 200% $182,626 $2,123
Case 3 $0.060 144% 100% $5,325 $67
Case 4 $0.514 0% 100% ($5,517) $2

The GIS analysis estimated the cost of this project at $126,200 and the number of
initial connections at 89. The number of customers per kilometer was 2. Thus,
neither the number of connections per kilometer nor the cost per connection meets
the criteria for project construction. Moreover, the financial analysis shows that a

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very high tariff of $0.514 per kWh or a subsidy of more than the capital cost of the
project would be needed to make the project viable.

Urmiri Project

As shown in Fig. 12.1.5, the Urmiri project consists of 20 km of single phase, 14.4
kV line from Salinas de Yocalla to Urmiri. The line interconnects with a 24.9 kV line
in Salinas de Yocalla. Four communities would be connected: three in the canton
of Yocalla and one in the canton of Urmiri.

Table 12.1.14 shows the basic technical characteristics of this project including the
number of initial connections (users) and the number of connections projected in
the tenth year.

Table 12.1.14: Characteristics of the Urmiri Project.

Project No. of Line Users Initial Cost/User
Name Users Length /km Deman
(10th yr) (km) d (kVA)
Urmiri 87 (153) 20 4 11 $1,058

Table 12.1.15 shows the results of the financial analysis for the five cases defined
in Sec. 6.2.4.c.

The GIS analysis estimated the cost of this project at $91,800 and the number of
initial connections at 87. The number of customers per kilometer was 4. Thus,
neither the number of connections per kilometer nor the cost per connection meets
the criteria for project construction. Moreover, the financial analysis shows that a
very high tariff of $0.312 per kWh or a subsidy of more than the capital cost of the
project would be needed to make the project viable.

Table 12.1.15: Urmiri Project Financial Analysis

CASE Tariff Donation Productive Project NPVuser
Use NPV
Base Case $0.060 0% 100% $131,892 $1,183
Case 1 $0.060 50% 100% $86,004 $774
Case 2 $0.060 0% 200% $127,129 $1,141
Case 3 $0.060 136% 100% $7,078 $70
Case 4 $0.312 0% 100% ($5,648) ($1)

Sta. Lucia Project

As shown in Fig. 12.1.5, the Sta. Lucia project consists of a short 6 km extension of
single phase, 14.4 kV line La Puerta to Sta. Lucia. One community, Sta. Lucia,
would be electrified.

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Table 12.1.16 shows the basic technical characteristics of this project including the
number of initial connections (users) and the number of connections projected in
the tenth year.

Table 12.1.16: Characteristics of the Sta. Lucia Project.

Project No. of Line Users Initial Cost/User
Name Users Length /km Deman
(10th yr) (km) d (kVA)
Sta. Lucia 24 (45) 6 4 4 $1,111

Table 12.1.17 shows the results of the financial analysis for the five cases defined
in Sec. 6.2.4.c.

Table 12.1.17: Sta. Lucia Project Financial Analysis

CASE Tariff Donation Productive Project NPVuser
Use NPV
Base Case $0.060 0% 100% $38,921 $1,220
Case 1 $0.060 50% 100% $25,421 $799
Case 2 $0.060 0% 200% $37,586 $1,179
Case 3 $0.060 137% 100% $1,931 $68
Case 4 $0.322 0% 100% ($1,898) $1

The GIS analysis estimated the cost of this project at $27,000 and the number of
initial connections at 24. The number of customers per kilometer was 4. Thus,
neither the number of connections per kilometer nor the cost per connection meets
the criteria for project construction. Moreover, the financial analysis shows that a
very high tariff of $0.322 per kWh or a subsidy of more than the capital cost of the
project would be needed to make the project viable.

Suipacha Project

As shown in Fig. 12.1.6, the Suipacha project consists of 39 km of single phase,

14.4 kV line from Tupiza to Suipacha. Seventeen communities would be
connected: eight in the canton of Tupiza, four in the canton of Tocloca, three in the
canton of Suipacha, and one each in the cantons of Quiriza and Chuquigo.

Table 12.1.18 shows the basic technical characteristics of this project including the
number of initial connections (users) and the number of connections projected in
the tenth year.

Table 12.1.18: Characteristics of the Suipacha Project.

Project No. of Line Users Initial Cost/User
Name Users Length /km Deman
(10th yr) (km) d (kVA)

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Suipacha 203 39 5 25 $944

(316)

Table 12.1.19 shows the results of the financial analysis for the five cases defined
in Sec. 6.2.4.c.

Table 12.1.19: Suipacha Project Financial Analysis

CASE Tariff Donation Productive Project NPVuser
Use NPV
Base Case $0.060 0% 100% $275,681 $1,112
Case 1 $0.060 50% 100% $179,904 $728
Case 2 $0.060 0% 200% $264,540 $1,068
Case 3 $0.060 136% 100% $15,933 $69
Case 4 $0.292 0% 100% ($7,898) ($0)

The GIS analysis estimated the cost of this project at $191,500 and the number of
initial connections at 203. The number of customers per kilometer was 5. Thus,
neither the number of connections per kilometer nor the cost per connection meets
the criteria for project construction. Moreover, the financial analysis shows that a
high tariff of $0.292 per kWh or a subsidy of more than the capital cost of the
project would be needed to make the project viable.

12.2 ISOLATED SYSTEMS

The criteria for identifying isolated projects set the minimum number of households
at 500 and required further that the level of electrification be less than 50%. No
communities were identified in the Department of Potosi which met these criteria.
12.3 DISPERSED SYSTEMS

Using the indicators and methodology explained in Chapter 6, all cantons in the
department of Potosi were analyzed. Two principal results were calculated for
each province: 1) the total investment potential for the province, and 2) the
prioritization of project investment by canton in each province. Cantons with a
ranking less than zero were not considered to be investment opportunities and no
investment funds for such cantons have been included in the total investment
potential for the province.
12.3.1 Project Investment Potential

Table 12.3.1 shows the results of the investment analysis for each province. Over
$38 million would need to be invested to electrify just those cantons with a positive
ranking factor.

Table 12.3.1: Investment potential in dispersed electric systems.

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Province Investment Potential ($000)

Enrique Baldivieso 184.1
Benardino Bilbao 332.7
Rafael Bustillo 3,562.3
Charcas 2,270.1
Chayanta 5,081.3
Daniel Campos 509.6
Alonso de Ibañez 1,859.9
José Maria Linares 4,418.4
Modesto Omiste 376.6
Nor Chichas 4,833.5
Nor Lipez 747.6
Antonio Quijarro 3,382.4
Sur Chichas 2,573.2
Cornelio Saavedra 4,165.7
Sur Lipez 248.5
Tomas Frias 4,090.1
Total $38,636

12.3.2 Project Rankings

Table 12.3.2 shows the prioritization of projects by canton and by province for
those cantons with a positive ranking. Rankings for all cantons is shown in Annex
12.1. Those cantons, which are not listed in Table 12.3.2 or in Annex 12.1, are
contained within a buffer zone for a conventional electrification project.

The map of the Department of Potosi shows the rankings in three categories:
rankings greater than 4.0 (yellow), rankings between 2.0 and 4.0 (green) and
rankings between 0.0 and 2.0 (red). Uncolored areas have rankings below 0.0, or
are electrified, or are part of a proposed electrification project.

Table 12.3.2: Rankings for electrical projects based on dispersed energy

systems.
Province Canton Composite Ranking
Index
Enrique Baldivieso San Agustin 1.67
Benardino Bilbao Acasio 0.26
Santiago 0.26
Rafael Bustillo Chuquiuta 3.45
Llallagua 3.16
Cala Cala 3.12
Panacachi 2.46
Chayanta 1.99
Uncia 0.71

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Charcas San Pedro 1.48

Coacari 1.36
Moscari 0.31
Julo 0.17
Chayanta Pocoata 6.70
Colquechaca 2.25
Macha 1.60
Ocuri 1.40
Ayoma 1.29
Antora 0.38
Daniel Campos Canquella 4.44
San Pablo de Napa 3.42
Llica 1.53
Tahua 1.51
Tres Cruces 0.90
Huanaque 0.80
Chacoma 0.51
Yonza 0.25
Villa Aroma 0.06
Alonso de Ibañez Jankho Jankho 3.21
Huanacoma 2.27
Sacaca 1.71
Charca 0.86
Colloma 0.28
Vila Vila 0.09
José Maria Linares Caiza “D” 8.66
Esquiri 6.01
Otavi 2.82
Miculpaya 1.84
Puna 0.26
Inchasi 0.18
Modesto Omiste Yuruma 0.29
Mojo 0.25
Chipiwayco 0.14
Casira 0.00
Nor Chichas Cotataita 3.80
Sagrario 3.58
Toropalca 3.24
Yawisla 1.76
Rio Blanco 1.69
Tocla 1.30
Vitichi 1.11
Ramadas 0.83
Ara 0.76

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Calcha 0.26
Nor Lipez San Christobal 3.00
San Pedro de Quemes 2.27
Soniquera 1.72
Pelcoya 1.68
Rio Grande 1.66
Colcha “K” 1.27
Llavica 1.02
Chiguana 0.91
Culpina 0.47
San Juan 0.46
Santiago de Agencha 0.39
Cana 0.32
Pajancha 0.27
Atulcha 0.07
Antonio Quijarro Coroma 4.03
Porco 2.92
Thola Pampa 2.52
Tomave 2.34
Yura 1.85
Tica Tica 0.70
Calasaya 0.58
Cerdas 0.39
Sur Chichas Chocaya 2.66
Portugalete 1.87
Nazareno 1.40
Estarca 1.37
Santa Barbara 1.20
Telamayu 1.12
Villa Pacheco 0.90
Esmoraca 0.84
Talina 0.60
San Jose de Pampa 0.53
Grande
Cuchu 0.47
Espicaya 0.25
Chorolque Viejo 0.22
Tocloca 0.12
Atocha 0.09
Rio Blanco 0.08
Cornelio Saavedra Tecoya 2.17
Potobamba 2.07
Otuyo 2.00
Poco Poco 1.70

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Millares 1.05
Quivincha 0.97
Chaqui 0.96
Sur Lipez Quetena Grande 5.23
Quetena Chico 4.79
San Antonio de 0.53
Esmoruco
Casa Grande 0.12
Mojinete 0.03
Tomas Frias Santa Lucia 3.45
Chulchucani 3.44
Tinquipaya 2.17
Salinas de Yocalla 1.59
Urmiri 1.28

One notes from Table 12.3.2 that all provinces in the Department of Potosi have
cantons with positive ranking factors. Four cantons have a ranking factor greater
than 4.0 indicating a high correlation of positive factors. If one considers only
those cantons with a ranking factor greater than 4.0, the market for solar home
systems is 5,633 households. Thus, the immediate market has a value of about
$3.9 million.

12.3.3 Conclusions

The Department of Potosi offers a large investment potential for solar energy
systems. The solar resource is excellent and a very large number of cantons have
positive ranking factors. Twelve provinces and 31 cantons have rankings over 2.0.
Moreover, both the municipalities and the Prefectura have focused funds on rural
electrification and it appears that this focus will continue in 1997.

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