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INSIGHT
October 2010 Issue 53
Asia Pacific
Automotives
BMI’s monthly market intelligence, trend analysis and forecasts for the automotives industry across Asia Pacific
with its Shanghai VW unit leading with sales of 708,100 units and its Continental Targets ‘Key Market’ But BMI Warns Of Cost Risks.................................. 5
FAW-VW tie-up close behind on 669,200. However, with a slowdown Mahindra Eyes Global SUV Strength Through Ssangyong Deal.................................. 6
Trend Of Emerging Market Firms Expanding Will Continue As MSSL Seeks Purchases. 7
in China’s rapid vehicle sales growth expected in H210 and into 2011,
Mahindra And Importer’s Future Uncertain As Expansion Takes Its Toll...................... 7
the German carmaker is looking for a safety net in the region.
Pakistan
An on-off relationship with Malaysian carmaker Proton had initially
Japanese Dominance Threatened As Yen Forces Up Car Prices................................. 8
offered one of the best routes to the market, until the latest round of
Thailand
negotiations broke down in June. VW has since reached an agreement
Ford And Mazda Invest More As Cost Advantages Become Clear............................... 8
with DRB-Hicom for the local assembly of its models from 2012. Local Malaysia
production in the region is particularly important to take advantage of International Partnerships Lead To Expansion For DRB-Hicom.................................. 9
the ASEAN Free trade Agreement, under which import tariffs between Indonesia
signatories was reduced to 0-5% from January 1. Steel JV Will Increase Local Content As Vehicle Demand Rises.................................. 9
According to German press, VW is also eyeing Vietnam as a produc- Philippines
tion base. This is apparently due to its low labour and production costs Ford Uncertainty Highlights Strength Of Thai Incentives Over Philippines..................10
as well as its access to other markets in the region. While Vietnam is South Korea
not one of the highest ranking markets in BMI’s Industry Risk/Reward Exports Will Continue To Play Greater Role In Strategies.........................................10
ratings for the auto sector in Asia Pacific, local assembly will help VW Renault’s Import Plans Could Be Hampered By Aid Conditions.................................11
avoid the increasingly high tariffs in Vietnam. Kia Follows Asian Example in Uruguay, But Risk Lays In Brazil’s Bubble Bursting.......12
Elsewhere in the region, VW assembles the Touran multi-purpose FTA Will Heat Up Competition Between Asian Carmakers........................................12
vehicle (MPV) in Indonesia in partnership with the Indomobil group. Japan
There is the potential for complete production to begin from 2012, Distinct Brand Strategy And Local Production To Aid Nissan’s Expansion Plans..........13
depending on the success of the venture. Thailand is also being tapped Toyota Withdrawal: More About Protecting US Business?.........................................13
Nissan Looks For GCC Growth Despite Yen Threat..................................................14
through VW’s 19.9% stake in Suzuki Motor, which is planning a small
Nissan Signs EV Agreement As Government Shows Signs Of Contradictory Policy......14
car plant in the country.
Singapore
Apart from the growth opportunities in the ASEAN markets, one of
Country Will Remain An Attractive Investment Location Despite Flextronics Pull-Out.14
the major reasons for the expansion is keeping up with current global
Australia
leader Toyota Motor. In March VW’s executive vice president for sales
Cross-Continent Cooperation Makes Holden Flex-Fuel A Reality................................15
and marketing, Christian Klingler, highlighted Toyota’s sales of around
1mn units in the region, compared with the 30,000-40,000 from VW.
VW has experience of capturing market share in emerging markets,
not only in China, but also in Brazil, where it overtook Italy’s Fiat for
market leadership. The product mix played an integral part, with the
Fox and Gol compact models contributing significantly to its growth.
Assembling the Touran in Indonesia, where MPV sales accounted for
65% of the total industry volume in H110, suggests VW already has its
product strategy in mind. However, with its sales in the country down
17% for the first half of 2010 and Japanese brands accounting for nine
out of the top 10 places, the challenges are still clear.
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China Asia Pacific Automotives
Geely Automobile
E6
EK-1
Electric
Electric
GM Primed For Further Success
Chana Motors Joice HEV Hybrid Electric
With Opel’s China Strategy
Source: Asia Times Since China has overtaken the US as the largest market for General
Several government departments are coming together to provide Motors Company (GM) in terms of units sales in H110, the car-
the necessary policy framework. The Ministry of Industry and Infor- maker has given the green light to its European division, Opel, to
mation Technology (MIIT) is finalising the ‘energy saving and new begin sales in the country. Despite BMI’s projection for a consider-
energy vehicle development plan (2011-2020)’, which it expects to able slowdown in vehicle sales growth, to 15% in 2010, compared
publish in two months, as well as working with other departments with 45% last year, GM sees demand for European cars in China
to revise the Automotive Industry Development Policy 2004. The and will be marketing the brand in the premium segment alongside
Ministry of Science and Technology is drafting a plan specific to German big hitters such as BMW, Daimler and its ongoing rival for
electric vehicles (EVs) covering research and development and fi- market leadership in China, Volkswagen (VW). High-end brands
nancial subsidies. This will be backed by the Commerce Department, have continued to perform well, despite a deceleration in growth
which will encourage the import of advanced related technology. of the market as a whole.
China believes it can take a lead in the EV industry and also sees After recognising demand in China, Opel tested the market in
it as a necessity to face up to ‘the big challenge of having more than 2009 with sales of 4,000 units, according to German daily Deutsche
200mn vehicles on the road’, according to Wang Fuchang, deputy Welle. It is not yet know which models will be coming to China.
2 www.autosinsight.com
China Asia Pacific Automotives
Previously, Opel vehicles sold outside of Europe have been rebadged marks the first time a domestic carmaker and international partner
under the Buick brand. BMI believes the key to success will be to have shared technology. The two will develop 1.0 to 1.5-litre direct
avoid overlapping with models from the GM group, especially in injection turbocharged gasoline engines, aimed at tapping into the
markets where GM is successful, such as China, which is the group’s smaller car segment, which is eligible for government tax breaks
most profitable overseas business. incentives. The project also endorses BMI’s view that government
policy will increasingly influence product development.
Growing EM Domination
Market Sales As % Of Global Sales Engine For Growth
40 China and India Total Vehicle Sales (CBUs)
25,000,000
35 China
30 India (four-wheeled sales)
20,000,000
25
20 15,000,000
15
10,000,000
10
5 5,000,000
BRIC North America
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010f
2011f
2012f
2013f
2014f
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010f
2011f
2012f
2013f
2014f
f = forecast. Source: BMI
www.autosinsight.com 3
China Asia Pacific Automotives
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010f
2011f
2012f
2013f
2014f
4 www.autosinsight.com
India Asia Pacific Automotives
Reversing The Losses airbags and a more powerful three-cylinder engine. Tata is consider-
Volvo Cars Financial Results (US$mn), 2007-09 ing launching the upgraded Nano in India after it reaches Europe.
20,000 0 Targeting Similar Growth Patterns
Revenue LHS Vehicle Sales In India, ASEAN And Latin America (CBUs)
18,000
Operating Profit RHS -500 9,000,000
16,000 India* ASEAN LatAm
8,000,000
14,000
-1000
7,000,000
12,000
10,000 -1500 6,000,000
8,000 5,000,000
-2000
6,000 4,000,000
4,000 3,000,000
-2500
2,000 2,000,000
0 -3000 1,000,000
2007 2008 2009 0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010f
2011f
2012f
2013f
2014f
Source: Ford
Volvo hopes these new models will take its total sales to 400,000 * four-wheel vehicles only, f = BMI forecast; Sources: SIAM, Gaikindo, TAI, CAMPI,
cars a year, compared with the 334,800 units it shifted last year. VAMA, MAA, Anfavea, AMIA, Adefa, Cavenez
However, given that the company expects to sell 90% of the V60s Tata is ramping up production of the Nano for its global expan-
in Europe, BMI is cautious about the extent to which the model sion. After selling more than 50,000 units since its launch in July
could turn the company around. 2009, the opening of a dedicated plant in Sanand will provide the
The Association des Constructeurs Européens d’Automobiles capacity to produce 250,000 units per year. Prakash Telang, manag-
(ACEA) estimates sales of luxury vehicles in the region have been ing director of Tata Motors, expects output of around 20,000 units
declining since 2007. That year, the sector made up nearly 14% of per month.
all new passenger car sales. The share fell to close to 10% by the However, BMI points out that while Tata is upgrading the
end of 2009 and declined further to 9.3% in Q110. Nano’s features to appeal to a wider global audience, the recent
We believe luxury cars have lost out as small vehicles have incidents of three Nanos catching fire is likely to arouse concern.
become increasingly popular in light of the impending emission An internal investigation is being carried out and all Nanos sold are
norms and consumer preference towards engines with greater fuel being inspected, which Tata says is to ‘allay concerns’ and is not
efficiency. an official recall.
However, we feel there are opportunities for Volvo to make The importance of Tata finding new markets for the Nano has
the V60 successful abroad. At the time of its acquisition, Geely been heightened since the threat of competition has emerged from a
indicated it was keen to expand Volvo in other markets. Plans are tie-up between Bajaj Auto and the Renault-Nissan Alliance. Bajaj,
already under way for a new Volvo plant in China, to augment its a two and three-wheeler specialist, has undertaken the research and
existing presence in the country. development work for what has been named the Ultra Low Cost
We do not expect V60s brand image to be hurt by concerns about (ULC) car. In May, Bajaj said it had been working on a car that
its Chinese ownership, mainly thanks to the fact the vehicles will will offer low running costs and an engine that it hopes will be one
be built, and mainly sold, in Europe. The V60 is due to go on sales of the most fuel-efficient in its class.
in Europe later this year and will be a litmus test for Volvo under BMI believes it would be difficult to beat the original Nano on
its new ownership. price, which is why Bajaj has been focussing on different priorities
such as fuel efficiency and running costs. According to the com-
India pany’s managing director, Rajiv Bajaj, it has been ‘leveraging the
lower costs structure’ from its production of two-wheelers to lower
Tata Takes Nano To High- the production and running costs of the car, which should enable
some of India’s millions of motorcycle owners to upgrade.
Growth EMs As Competition Motorcycle owners have been a target market for small car
producers, who have been trying to encourage an upgrade to four
Emerges wheels. So far, however, India’s two-wheel market has in no way
suffered from the influx of new small cars and is forecast by BMI
Indian carmaker Tata Motors is building on the domestic success of to surpass sales of 10mn units in the current financial year (ending
its Nano budget car with plans to target markets in Latin America, March 2011), up 6.9% year-on-year. Within the two-wheeler sector,
Africa and the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN). motorcycle sales are expected to grow by 7.8%.
BMI believes there is potential for the US$2,500 car in emerging
markets with strong auto demand. We forecast average annual Continental Targets ‘Key
growth of 5% for the combined ASEAN states and 8-9% for Latin
America over the next five years. Market’ But BMI Warns Of Cost
For other regions, the expansion of the Nano’s reach is likely
to involve dropping the title of the world’s cheapest car. The Nano Risks
Europa is being specifically designed to meet international standards German automotive supplier Continental is looking to expand
and will include more ‘luxury’ features such as power steering, in India, complementing its partnership with Modi Tyres for the
www.autosinsight.com 5
India Asia Pacific Automotives
6 www.autosinsight.com
India Asia Pacific Automotives
which was approved by the Seoul Central District Court in December year, and is looking to strengthen its presence in Europe, having
2009. The SUV specialist is aiming to return to profitability within already built links ties with the likes of BMW and Volkswagen.
three years and triple sales in the same timeframe. BMI believes This clearly highlights a strategy that most companies from EMs
that another positive aspect of Ssangyong’s plan is that its product are adopting. The global economic crisis and consequent fall in the
strategy fits with the South Korean government’s plan to speed up value of businesses in Europe has made such acquisitions possible.
mass production of electric vehicles. A revamp of the company’s It not only created a ready network of client for these companies
product range features heavily in its turnaround plan, which includes with global ambitions, but also gave them access to well-established
producing an electric and a plug-in electric hybrid model within the manufacturing facilities in the region, making them more confident
next five years. This is technology that Mahindra may be able to about their investments in the region. MSSL alone is expected to
take advantage of for its own development. spend a significant proportion of its INR400-INR500cr (US$80-
2008
2009
2010f
2011f
2012f
2013f
2014f
www.autosinsight.com 7
Pakistan Asia Pacific Automotives
Pakistan Thailand
US$493 per tonne in Q109, to US$1,050. At the same time, carmak- 800,000
ers are facing declining volume sales in the wake of the country’s 600,000
worst ever floods.
400,000
Government support for the industry is negligible. The Daily
200,000
Times reports the government is actually calling for price cuts to
make cars more affordable. Additionally, rules regarding the im- 0
2007
2008
2009
2010f
2011f
2012f
2013f
2014f
port of used cars are being changed to allow second-hand cars less
than five years old into the country, which would further impact f = BMI forecast; Sources: CAMPI, Gaikindo, Thai Automotive Federation, MAA, OICA
domestic assembly.
In terms of import costs, the Japanese brands have such a stran- While BMI believes that strong government policy and a well
glehold that they may not suffer relatively in market share terms. In developed production industry make Thailand one of the best export
the passenger car segment, the only non-Japanese brand producing bases in the region, Ford Australia now sources the Ford Fiesta from
locally that could have taken advantage was South Korea’s Hyundai the country. This is an endorsement of the AAT plant, which was
Motor, but data from the Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers As- set up to produce the Fiesta and Mazda2 small cars under the gov-
sociation (PAMA) show no output data from November 2009 and ernment’s ‘Eco car’ programme, both for domestic sale and export.
Although Ford Australia is reticent about the chances of also
no sales figures from May 2010. It does provide an opening for
sourcing the Focus when Ford’s sole-owned plant comes on-
other brands to enter at a competitive advantage, however. Chinese stream, there are a number of reasons why it would make sense.
brands have already emerged in the truck and motorcycle market and The US$500mn plant is producing the Focus for export throughout
could see this as an opportune time to expand into passenger cars. Asia Pacific, which should include Australia. Ford Australia itself
On the downside, the heavy Japanese presence does mean the has also noted the benefits of cost and tax savings from importing
industry as a whole will suffer and at a time when the sector had within the region, while also picking up on the disadvantages of its
started to recover. After a particularly bad year in 2008-2009, sales current Focus sourcing.
for 2009-2010 (July to June) rose 43% in the passenger car and light At present the Focus is imported to Australia from South Africa.
However, Ford Australia’s marketing general manager, David
commercial vehicle segment, while output was 37% higher. How-
Katic, has been quoted as saying the company has had ‘supply is-
ever, this does have to be seen in the context of a low base from the sues’ and that the ‘high variation of Focus sales is a result of that’.
previous year and the increasingly difficult conditions for carmakers Katic added that Ford Australia is now looking for consistency in
mean similar growth in the current financial year looks unlikely. its supply of the Focus.
8 www.autosinsight.com
Malaysia Asia Pacific Automotives
If a model cannot be built domestically it is important that deal- with assembly of CKD kits and according to Jamil, speaking at
ers can be assured a reliable source of stock. Before switching the the signing of the agreement in August, the project should play a
Fiesta sourcing, Katic said dealers could not aggressively market central role in making Malaysia a regional production hub, which
the model as they did not have enough to sell. With sales of the is a goal of the Malaysian government. In line with BMI’s view on
medium car segment, in which the Focus competes, up by 25% in government intervention in the auto sector, the Malaysian Ministry
July and 14% for the year-to-date, having a large enough inventory of International Trade and Industry (MITI) has opened a dedicated
to satisfy demand will be key to being competitive. However, the division to oversee the development of the domestic industry, as it
new Thai plant will not be operational until 2012. looks to compete with other major ASEAN states.
With the Fiesta now proving its worth, the latest investment for The partnership is also a step forward for VW, which had been
AAT will be aimed at building a new compact pick-up truck from looking to expand its ASEAN presence through a relationship with
mid-2011. The money will be used to upgrade and retool the plant national carmaker Proton, but talks were unsuccessful. VW has had
to produce the truck for the domestic and export markets. Although an on-off relationship with Proton. A previous agreement collapsed
sales of pick-up trucks have dwindled in recent years, sales in H110 in 2007. After the most recent negotiations failed, Proton cited VW’s
were up 47% year-on-year, while demand in other countries is also statement of having ‘other priorities’ as a factor.
a factor. Pick-up sales in Indonesia more than doubled in the seven DRB-Hicom’s ‘vision of designing and developing our own
months to July, while in Australia, light commercial vehicle sales brand of vehicles in cooperation with our global partners’ is a strat-
were 6.8% higher in the same period. egy employed by some major Chinese brands, who built up expertise
and technical capability through joint ventures with foreign carmak-
ers, before launching their own brands. One risk to this scenario is
Malaysia
that the new National Automotive Policy is aimed at rationalising
International Partnerships Lead the industry to two major volume producers, in order to curb the
threat of overcapacity, which is prevalent in China.
2007
2008
2009
2010f
2011f
2012f
2013f
2014f
for export back to the UK to be assembled for the domestic and other
European markets. The CBUs, meanwhile, will be shipped around
f = BMI forecast; Source: Gaikindo
the Asia Pacific region. There are also plans to produce hybrid and
electric versions of the sports cars, which will give the company ac- Krakatau’s vice president of corporate communications, Wawan
cess to new technology. Production is due to begin in 2012, by which Hernawan, said the new plant would enable the company supply steel
time BMI expects total industry production to exceed 650,000 units. for interior parts and chassis, as well as the steel for car bodies that
If discussions with VW are finalised, production of the German it supplies now. Strong domestic demand is driving the industry,
brand’s cars is due to begin in Q211. The project would begin with production growth of 41.5% and 41.4% in 2007 and 2008 re-
www.autosinsight.com 9
Philippines Asia Pacific Automotives
spectively. The economic crisis hit hard in 2009 with output slipping Comparing Rewards
22%, but BMI expects a return to production growth of 34.4% in BMI Auto Industry And Country Reward Scores For Philippines And
Thailand
2010, to accommodate sales growth of 40.6%. 54
In H110, total vehicle production was up 65% year-on-year (y-o- Philippines Thailand
y), according to data from the Association of Indonesian Automotive 52
Country
Reward
Reward
Industry
Reward
Overall
Score
edly promised to have the Cilegon-based plant operational by 2014,
producing steel that will meet the needs of the domestic industry.
Note: The ‘Rewards’ Rating comprises an Industry and a Country element, which have
Increasing the availability of domestic raw materials will be a a 65% and 35% weighting respectively. These are based upon specific Industry growth
contributing factor to meeting the government’s target for annual and size dynamics within the market, and the broader economic and socio-demographic
environment of the country.
production of one million units in five years. This is largely in
line with BMI’s forecast for just under 990,000 units by 2014. It changes to the new MVDP for consideration, incentives have been
should also increase the competitiveness of producing locally and proposed that would favour carmakers producing for export rather
attract more investment, which is another aim of the government. than focusing on domestic demand. While this would clearly support
In April, Industry Minister MS Hidayat announced that Indonesia Ford as the industry’s only exporter, details are still vague and Ford’s
is looking for ways to make its auto sector an integral part of the US headquarters is already in the process of studying potential new
ASEAN Economic Community ‘and not just become a market for models to be built in the country. BMI also believes there is a risk
other ASEAN countries’. in supporting exports to the detriment of developing the domestic
For Posco, the JV is another step into a country that is not only industry as a whole. Ford itself highlighted a need to develop parts
resource rich, but also has strong vehicle demand. The company is production in order to ‘have a competitive auto manufacturing in-
also planning a US$12bn steel plant in India, where BMI forecasts dustry’, when the export issue was discussed in July.
average annual vehicle output growth of 12% over the next five years FGP’s president, Randy Krieger, told local press at the launch
and will take a 20% stake in a Brazilian operation run by Vale SA of the Fiesta on August 16 that government incentives ‘play a big
and Korean steel producer Dongkuk Steel Mill Co. BMI expects part’ in investment decisions. Other criteria include ‘the size of
vehicle production in Brazil to grow an average 7.7% between the domestic market and its needs’. This is similar to BMI’s own
2010 and 2014. Industry Risk/Reward Ratings, which include total sales and growth
potential over the next five years as criteria for the Industry Reward
component. With a much larger domestic market to begin with and
Philippines
average annual growth of 4.9% over the next five years, Thailand
Over Philippines
the Philippines up to 2012. Ford also has an advantage as it is one
of the industry players working with the government to hammer out
News that Ford Group Philippines (FGP) does not have a definite the details of the new industry policy.
replacement for the Focus when production of the model is moved
to Thailand in 2012 supports BMI’s view that Thailand is a more
South Korea
attractive investment prospect due to its strong industry policy and
incentives. The uncertainty surrounding the finalisation and imple-
mentation of the latest Philippines Motor Vehicle Development Exports Will Continue To Play
Plan (MVDP) has only served to further highlight the difference in
competitiveness. Greater Role In Strategies
If Ford does not replace the Focus with another model, it Sales results for August show that South Korean carmakers have
will have even greater ramifications for the Philippines domestic achieved some of their strongest growth in export markets, which
industry, as the US carmaker is the only vehicle exporter in the is a trend that BMI expects to continue as the country becomes an
country. Out of a full capacity of 15,000 units, Ford exports around important part of wider global planning. This is particularly true
10,000. The company acknowledges that the incentives offered of those companies with international ownership, such as Renault
under the current MVDP have been ‘very helpful’ in making the Samsung Motors.
Philippines more competitive against larger car making neighbours Ssangyong Motor, which reached an agreement to be taken over
such as Thailand. However, Ford has said it is keen to ‘under- by India’s Mahindra and Mahindra in August this year, registered
stand the specifics’ of the latest version of the policy. the strongest growth by far. Its domestic sales rose 166% from a year
As the Philippines Board of Investments (BoI) continues to draft earlier, to 2,506 units. Exports were 242% higher, at 3,668 units,
10 www.autosinsight.com
South Korea Asia Pacific Automotives
compared with 1,072 units the year before. The impressive results, has reported, long before the model’s planned unveiling at the Paris
though, are mainly the result of a labour dispute in August 2009, Motor Show in October. The model, only 5% of which are likely
when striking workers took over Ssangyong’s plant in Pyeongtaek to be imported into Western Europe from the Renault Samsung
for two months. This cost the carmaker an estimated KRW300bn Motors plant in South Korea, has raised the eyebrow of the French
(US$245mn) in lost output and provided an especially low base for government. Since a sharp 44% decline in France’s auto production
comparison. between 2006 and 2009–mostly due to high production costs, the
Export Strength government sees Renault’s current strategy as part of a drive to shift
South Korean Vehicle Exports By Segment (CBUs) more production to low cost bases abroad.
1,800,000
1,600,000
7M09 7M10
Marketing Logic
Instead, Renault sees the model as a cure for its narrowing share in
1,400,000
Europe, where the Laguna has lost popularity to competing models
1,200,000
from the Volkswagen and General Motors Company stable. While
1,000,000 the Laguna, introduced in H207, has missed its targeted 190,000
800,000 sales by the end of H108, the SM5 sedan has proved immensely
600,000 popular in South Korea, significantly contributing to the carmaker’s
400,000
61% year-on-year increase in sales during H110. In view of this
success, company spokesperson Gaelle Gicquel has revealed the
200,000
firm is looking to import 5% of the SM5 models produced in South
0 Korea to Western Europe, hoping it will help increase its market
Total Passenger Buses Trucks &
cars SPVs share in the mid-size segment.
Source: KAMA
Problems for Renault, however, stem from the fact that 15% of
the company is owned by the government, which makes it possible
However, BMI believes Mahindra’s acquisition of Ssangyong for the government to directly intervene in its operations. Addition-
will give the SUV specialist access to a wider global audience and ally, Renault is bound by the conditions of maintaining domestic
higher export sales should be sustainable, although not at the same production and helping auto parts suppliers in France in return for
levels as August. India will be one of Ssangyong’s new export the near EUR6bn in aid that it and compatriot PSA Peugeot Citroën
destinations, as Mahindra plans to launch the company’s premium received from the government last year.
SUVs to tap into growing demand in the country.
Renault Samsung also stands to benefit from its international ties, Government Standing Firm
as the Renault-Nissan Alliance has decided the strength of the yen Since then the government has managed to put a considerable amount
means that increasing capacity in South Korea to move production of pressure on Renault’s production plans. In 2009, Renault was
from Japan will be more cost effective. Renault Samsung’s doubling forced to reverse its plans of shifting production of the Clio Campus
of exports in August, to 8,736 units, made up for a 5.3% drop in from France to Slovenia, in a move that reaffirmed BMI’s view
domestic sales, to 10,153 units, taking total sales up by 34%. that the aid will keep a check on any significant fall in production
Growth for Kia Motors in August was split relatively evenly volumes in the country during our forecast period, to 2014.
between its domestic and export markets, with South Korean sales
Preventing Further Loss
up 53% on last year, to 38,620 units, and outbound shipments up France Autos Production: Historical Data And Forecasts
56%, to 111,921 units. This resulted in overall growth of 55% in the 3.5 3.0
month, considerably higher than its larger parent Hyundai Motor, 3.0 2.5
which registered 17% overall growth. However, BMI believes that
2.5
Hyundai’s growing network of overseas production bases means 2.0
2.0
that the need for exports is reduced. This is particularly significant 1.5
when global models are produced overseas, such as the i20 compact 1.5
1.0
made in India. 1.0
GM Daewoo Auto and Technology was the one carmaker to 0.5 0.5
buck the trend with growth of 28.3% in domestic sales in August, 0.0 0.0
to 9,128 units, compared with a 26% rise in exports, to 39,091 units.
2007
2008
2009e
2010e
2011f
2012f
2013f
2014f
www.autosinsight.com 11
South Korea Asia Pacific Automotives
compared with 2009 levels. Renault’s French plants were reportedly rea. Although Japanese majors Toyota Motors, Nissan Motor and
operating at half of their production capacity last year. Suzuki Motor hold considerable influence in Peru, BMI believes
Over time, we expect carmakers to be more inclined to boost their dominance could soon be eclipsed by South Korea’s Hyundai
production overseas and gradually reduce production domestically, Motor and its sister firm Kia Motors, should a possible FTA be-
after they have repaid the aid. However, we doubt if Renault’s tween Peru and Japan be delayed further. Hyundai and Kia currently
ownership structure will encourage the company to take such bold stand as the second and the third most popular carmakers in Peru.
moves in the future. Automotive imports into Peru currently attract a 9% tariff. To
12 www.autosinsight.com
japan Asia Pacific Automotives
www.autosinsight.com 13
singapore Asia Pacific Automotives
Western Europe
Asia Pacific
CEE
14 www.autosinsight.com
australia Asia Pacific Automotives
The closure is a sharp reversal from the company’s earlier ambi- development. Holden claims that it has worked with its Chevrolet
tious plans in the country where it made its foray back in 1993. Since Brazil sister company over the last decade to learn about flex-fuel
then, much of the contract manufacturer’s strategy towards Hungary technology, resulting in the Australian-built 3.0-litre SIDI V6 and
has centred on maintaining a close proximity to its Europe-based 6.0-litre V8 engines.
clients and benefitting from the infrastructure and skilled labour force Returning To Export Growth
in Hungary. However, under the current plan, part of the production Australian Vehicle Exports (CBUs)
200,000
Bolstered By International Participation
Hungary’s Network Of Automotive Manufacturers*
150,000
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010f
2011f
2012f
2013f
2014f
Continental, ContiTech, Lear, MGM,
Central Hungary
Michelin, Webasto f = BMI forecast, Source: FCAI
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