Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Vdocuments - MX - Polyamide Intermediates World Market Overview PDF
Vdocuments - MX - Polyamide Intermediates World Market Overview PDF
7,500
7,000
If no new
plants
6,500 2018-2020
6,000
5,500 Capability to
produce
5,000
Forecast
4,500 Growth 2.9%
pa
4,000
-200
Lanxess
Shandong Hongye
Poland
Others
Zhejiang Juhua
Fujian Tianchen
DSM
BASF
CPDC
Sumitomo
Domo
Honeywell
C.I.S
Sinopec
Shandong Luxi
Shanxi Yangmei
Hubei Sanning
Hebei Xuyang
Fujian Liheng
Ube
Capro Corp
India
Shanxi Lanhua
Bohui
1,000
500
0
2014
2020
2014
2020
2014
2020
2014
2020
2014
2020
2014
2020
2014
2020
2014
2020
North South West East ME & S & SE NE China
America America Europe Europe Africa Asia Asia
ME & Africa
S & SE Asia
250 2005
150 2006
China
50 2007
Japan
-50
N America
S America
W Europe
E Europe
2008
-150 2009
-250 2010
-350
2011
-450
2012
-550
2013
-650
2014 est
-750
ME & Africa
S & SE Asia
250 2005
150 2006
China
50 2007
Japan
-50
N America
S America
W Europe
E Europe
2008
-150 2009
-250 2010
-350
2011
-450
Forecast Trend to 2020 2012
-550
2013
-650
2014 est
-750
3,500
3,000
2,500
1999-2008
2,000 2009
2010
1,500
2011
1,000 2012
2013
500
2014
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
1999-2008
3,000
2009
2010
2,500
2011
2012
2,000
2013
1,500 2014
1,000
500
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
3,500
3,000
Caprolactam
2,500
2,000 PTA +
MEG
1,500
1,000
500
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem Brent Crude Oil $/bbl
APIC 2015
AVERAGE PET RESIN AND PA6 POLYMER COSTS
vs BRENT CRUDE OIL
2015?
$/ton
3,500
PA6
3,000
2,500
PET
2,000
1,500
1,000
Asia Cotton Price
(May-Dec 2014)
500
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem Brent Crude Oil $/bbl
APIC 2015
DEPENDENCE OF CAPROLACTAM PRODUCTION COST
ON CRUDE OIL PRICE
Fixed costs of Energy related costs
$/ton Caprolactam supplying plants (steam, ammonia, etc.)
Cost of Production
4,000
4,000 in Asia
3 4
9
3,500
3,500 10
Cats & 8 5
1 2 7
6 2 3 Fixed costs of
Chemicals 12 11
3,000
3,000 6
5 11
1 5 4 caprolactam plant
10
12 10
Packing, 8 9
2 7 4 11
2,500
2,500 Delivery 13
9
loading 9
8
12
6 12
8
7
shipping 7 11
2,000
2,000 5
10 Energy
6
4 dependant
3
1,500
1,500 costs
2 1
1,000 Cyclohexane 2009
1,000
2010
500
2011
0 2012
0 10 20
20 30
30 40
40 50
50 60
60 70
70 80 90
80 90 100
100 110
110 120
120 130
130 140
140 150
150
Crude Oil Price $/bbl
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
DEPENDENCE OF CAPROLACTAM PRODUCTION COST
CRUDE OIL PRICE
Fixed costs of Energy related costs
$/ton Caprolactam supplying plants (steam, ammonia, etc.) Cost of Production
4,000 in Asia
3,500
Cats &
Chemicals Fixed costs of
3,000 caprolactam plant
3
Packing, 64 2
2,500 Delivery 5 19
loading 7 8
10
shipping 12
11
2,000 Energy
dependant
1,500 costs
1,000 Cyclohexane
2013
500 2014
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
90.0% Balanced 1
1.5
VERY H2 2009
TIGHT 1.4
H1 2010
1.3
TIGHT
1.2 H2 2010
1.1 H1 2011
BALANCED
1.0
H2 2011
0.9
LOOSE
H1 2012
0.8
0.7 H2 2012
OVER-
SUPPLIED 0.6 2013
(SLOPPY)
0.5
2014
0.4
0.3
0.2
60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
Brent Crude Oil Price $/bbl
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
CAPROLACTAM PRICE SCENARIOS – ASIA NOV 2014
Tightness Index November 2014
1.6
1.5
1.3
TIGHT 1.2
1.1
BALANCED 1.0
0.9
LOOSE 0.8
0.7
0.4
0.3
0.2
40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
Brent Crude Oil Price $/bbl
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
THE PA66 SUPPLY CHAIN
Butadiene Hydrocyanation
HCN by-product
H2
Alternatives Adiponitrile HMDA
HCN Andrussov
+
Adipic acid
AH Salt
PA66
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
GLOBAL ADIPONITRILE CAPACITY
77% 77%
23%
24% 23%
60% 17%
4,000
3,500
Forecast
Growth 2.7%
Capability to Produce
3,000
1,500
1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019
3,500
PA66 Resin
3,000
Staple
Bulked Carpet
2,000
Growth 2012 - 2020 Textile Fibre
1,500 3.9%
1,000
2.4%
500
1.9%
1.7%
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
800
Forecast
Growth 9% PA66
700 Capacity
300
200
100
0
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Staple
4% Asahi/Tora
y
Cable Tie 4%
Radici
8% Others Nilit
1%
4% 4%