ESTIMATION OF MISSING DATA

Data for the period of missing rainfall data could be filled using estimation
technique. The length of period up to which the data could be filled is
dependent on individual judgment. Generally, rainfall for the missing
period is estimated either by using the normal ratio method or the distance
power method.
Normal Ratio Method
In the normal ratio method, the rainfall PA at station A is estimated as a
function of the normal monthly or annual rainfall of the station under
question and those of the neighboring stations for the period of missing
data at the station under question.

where Pi is the rainfall at surrounding stations, NRA is the normal monthly

or seasonal rainfall at station A, NRi is the normal monthly or seasonal
rainfall at station i, and n is the number of surrounding stations whose data
are used for estimation.
Example 3.6: A catchment has four rain gauge stations A, B, C & D.
Normal monthly rainfall at these stations is known. The observed rainfall
at the stations B, C & D for a storm event is known and is given in the
following table. Find the missing rainfall at station A. Solution: The ratio
of normal rainfall at station A to normal rainfall at station i or NRA/NRi
has been calculated and is given in table below.
Disaggregation of Rainfall Data
Many hydrological applications, such as flood forecasting, require rainfall
data of shorter duration, whereas the network of recording rain gauges
(providing short duration data) is small in comparison to that of daily rain
gauges. Hence, it is often necessary to disaggregate (or divide) the daily
rainfall data into shorter time intervals (usually one hour). The observed
daily rainfall is distributed in hourly values to follow the same pattern as
the observed hourly rainfall. The information of short interval rainfall is
used together with the information of daily rainfall from nearby non-
recording (daily) gauges. A common method to do this is the mass curve
method. A mass curve is a graphical plot of accumulated rainfall at a
station versus time. Mass curves of accumulated rainfall at (non-recording)
daily stations and recording stations can be prepared by plotting the
accumulated rainfall values against time for the storm duration under
analysis. Now the mass curves of the recording rain gauge stations are
compared with those of the non-recording stations to decide which
recording rain gauge is representative of which of the non-recording rain
gauge for the purpose of distributing daily rainfall into hourly rainfall.
Long Duration Rainfall
Rainfall intensity-duration equations for long-duration rainfall (that is, for
durations from 1 to 10 days) are developed using data from readily
available isopluvial maps prepared by the National Weather Service
(NWS) for four geographic regions: the contiguous United States, Alaska,
Hawaii, and Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. NWS finds the ratio
of n -day rainfall to 2-day rainfall depths in a geographic region to depend
on the ratio of 10-day rainfall to 2-day rainfall. Dimensionless forms of
four types of commonly used intensity-duration equations were then fit to
10 ratios of n - to 2-day rainfall depths for n = 1, 2, . . . , 10 for various 10-
day–rainfall to 2-day–rainfall depth ratios. Optimal parameters for each
equation type were found by an intensive pattern search covering the entire
feasible range of each parameter. Parameters are graphed as functions of
the 10-day–rainfall to 2-day–rainfall depth ratio for a specific return period
for each geographic region covered by the isopluvial maps. The best
equation for a particular region is found from a graph of the error sums of
squares of each equation type as a function of the 10-day–rainfall to 2-
day–rainfall depth ratio. The procedure presented here will be useful for
developing precipitation patterns (that is, design storms) used in the
hydrologic design of structures that control storm runoff and flooding.

Short Duration Rainfall

An IDF curve or graph is produced from an extreme value statistical
analysis of at least 10 years of rate-of-rainfall observations. The basic IDF
information is provided in files containing the IDF tables and graphs. It
includes the frequency of extreme rainfall rates and amounts
corresponding to the following durations: 5, 10, 15, 30 and 60 minutes,
and 2, 6, 12, and 24 hours. Return periods are used as the measure of
frequency of occurrence and are expressed in years. Estimates of the rates
and amounts for the durations noted above and their confidence intervals
for the rates are provided for return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100
years.

Frequency Analysis
Frequency analysis is an aid in determining the design discharge and
design rainfall. In addition, it can be used to calculate the frequency of
other hydrologic (or even non-hydrologic) events. Because high discharges
and rainfalls are comparatively infrequent, the selection of the design
discharge can be based on the low frequency with which these high values
are permitted to be exceeded. This frequency of exceedance, or the design
frequency, is the risk that the designer is willing to accept. Of course, the
smaller the risk, the more costly are the drainage works and structures, and
the less often their full capacity ' International Institute for Land
Reclamation and Improvement 175 will be reached. Accordingly, the
design frequency should be realistic - neither too high nor too low.
Return Period
Frequency Factors

Probability distributions
Normal family
- Normal, lognormal, lognormal-III
Generalized extreme value family
- EV1 (Gumbel), GEV, and EVIII (Weibull)
Exponential/Pearson type family
- Exponential, Pearson type III, Log-Pearson type III
Normal Distribution

Lognormal distribution
- If the pdf of X is skewed, it’s not normally distributed
- If the pdf of Y = log (X) is normally distributed, then X is said to be
lognormally distributed.

1  ( y   y )2 
f ( x)  exp   x  0, and y  log x
x 2  2 y 
2


Hydraulic conductivity, distribution of raindrop sizes in storm follow

lognormal distribution.
Extreme value (EV) distributions
 • Extreme values – maximum or minimum values of sets of data
• Annual maximum discharge, annual minimum discharge
• When the number of selected extreme values is large, the
distribution converges to one of the three forms of EV distributions
called Type I, II and III

EV type I distribution
If M1, M2…, Mn be a set of daily rainfall or streamflow, and let X =
max(Mi) be the maximum for the year. If Mi are independent and
identically distributed, then for large n, X has an extreme value type I or
Gumbel distribution.

1  x u  x  u 
f ( x)  exp   exp  
     
6sx
 u  x  0.5772


EV type III distribution

If Wi are the minimum streamflows in different days of the year, let X =
min(Wi) be the smallest. X can be described by the EV type III or Weibull
distribution.

 k  x 
k 1
  x k 
f ( x)     exp     x  0;  , k  0
         

Distribution of low flows (eg. 7-day min flow) follows EV3 distribution.
 Exponential distribution
• Poisson process – a stochastic process in which the number of events
occurring in two disjoint subintervals are independent random
variables.
• In hydrology, the interarrival time (time between stochastic
hydrologic events) is described by exponential distribution

1
f ( x )  e  x x  0;  
x

Interarrival times of polluted runoffs, rainfall intensities, etc are described

by exponential distribution.
Gamma Distribution
• The time taken for a number of events (b) in a Poisson process is
described by the gamma distribution
• Gamma distribution – a distribution of sum of b independent and
identical exponentially distributed random variables.

 x  1e x
f ( x)  x  0;   gamma function
(  )
Skewed distributions (eg. hydraulic
conductivity) can be represented using gamma
without log transformation.

Pearson Type III

 • Named after the statistician Pearson, it is also called three-parameter
gamma distribution. A lower bound is introduced through the third
parameter ( ε)

 ( x   )  1 e   ( x  )
f ( x)  x   ;   gamma function
(  )

It is also a skewed distribution first applied in hydrology for describing

the pdf of annual maximum flows.

Log-Pearson Type III

• If log X follows a Person Type III distribution, then X is said to have
a log-Pearson Type III distribution.

 ( y   )  1 e   ( y  )
f ( x)  y  log x  
(  )

Mass Curve
A plotting of the cumulative values of a variable as a function of time.

This is applied especially to mass curves of rainfall in storm studies, to

departures of various weather elements from normal, and to streamflow
data for reservoir studies.

IDF CURVE
An intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curve is a mathematical function
that relates the rainfall intensity with its duration and frequency of
occurrence. These curves are commonly used in hydrology for flood
forecasting and civil engineering for urban drainage design. However,
the IDF curves are also analysed in hydrometeorology because of the
interest in the time concentration or time-structure of the rainfall.