17 Alan Cadavos - Methods of Research in Planning PDF

Methods of
Research and
Tools of
Environmental
Planning
Lecture
© ECOPOLIS 2009 ® PAGE 1

Research and its Goals
• Research is an active, diligent, and systematic
process of inquiry aimed at discovering,
organizing and interpreting facts
• The goal of research is to discover regularities
about phenomena, to explain how they work and
why they happen, to understand principles about
relationships among its components.
• Social research is about the social world and
how an individual’s experiences are shaped by
the social world.
• Although multi-disciplinary, Environmental
Planning substantially belongs to applied social
science

 NATURAL ENVIRONMENT
1. Air Quality and Climate
2. Water Quality
3. Ecosystems, Habitat, and Wetlands
4. Noise and Waste
 HUMAN ENVIRONMENT
5. People, Communities, Neighborhoods
6. Environmental Justice
7. Cultural, Historic, Archaeological, and
Scenic Resources
 INTEGRATED DECISIONMAKING
8. Integrated Transportation and
Environmental Decision-making
General Types of Research
Basic Research
• Pure/fundamental research -- Discovery of new
knowledge
• Descriptive research defines what is being studied
and describes the phenomena of interest
• Explanatory research focuses on the causes and/or
effects of a phenomenon. Develops theory
• Applied Research
• Action Research -- Central purpose is to solve an
immediate problem
• Exploratory research find outs how people behave
or get along under various conditions, what
meanings they give to their actions, and what
issues concern them
• Evaluation research pays attention to the impact of
particular policies or programs

Types of Research According to Method
True Experimental Non-experimental
Quasi-Experimental
Quantitative Quantitative Qualitative
Cross-sectional Longitudinal Correlational Descriptive

Causal-Comparative Historical
Basic Applied Basic Applied Basic Applied

Theory and Hypothesis
• ‘Theory’ is an accepted formal system of ideas which has some power
to explain causal relationships, to organize data about real world
phenomena, and to predict in a speculative rather than precise sense.
Elements of theory are concepts, variables, and propositions.
• Proposition – theoretical statement about one or more concepts
• Concepts – general idea, abstraction, or construct about a subject is
systematically defined and explicitly written
• Variable – a concept or dimension of data that can take on more
than one value in a continuum; it is a characteristic, trait, attribute of
a person, object or event that can be described according to some
well-defined classification or measurement scheme.
• Constant – a concept that has only a single, never changing value
• A hypothesis is an educated guess or predictive statement expressed
in falsifiable form that links variables derived from theory and implies
some relationship of cause and effect.
• Null Hypothesis – is the hypothesis of no difference or where
relationship between variables can not be found.
• Operationalization – links a conceptual definition to a specific set of
measurement techniques
• Operational definition – definition of the specific operations or
actions (e.g. survey questionnaire, observation)

Scientific Research Process
 Larger Question the research addresses
 Norms, values (& data) determine what is
credible / fundable.
 Basic processes we think explain the

phenomenon
 Theory is influenced by norms +
empirical background of field.
 Operational definition, specific prediction.

 Clear hypotheses lessen bias in
interpreting results.
 The specific methods we use are more

standard and objective
 Methods & analyses are most objective,
but different fields vary in methodological
rigor.
 Actual pattern of outcomes we analyze

and present.
 The “meaning” of a finding for the theory,

field, for science and for society, is also
influenced by cultural & social values
Experimental Design
• True Experiments are designed to answer questions
about cause and effect
• Experimenters randomly assign living things, objects, or
substances to different conditions and measure the
effects of the treatment or intervention
• Requires the experimenter (or doer) to exercise control
over what happens to whom
• Independent Variable- Antecedent to other variables,
it is manipulated by the researcher as the treatment
variable that normally does not change in the course of
the experiment
• Dependent variable is not under the control of the
researcher and is expected to change as a result of the
treatment/intervention.
• Extraneous variables. Error-producing variables that
may impact on the Dependent Variable response.
Extraneous Variables are also called
• Intervening variables or spurious variables
• Modifying variables or distorter variables
• Suppressor variables
• Confounding variables
• Disadvantages
• True experiments cannot be ethically done on human
beings, hence the need for “Quasi-Experiments”
• Artificial nature of lab experiments
© ECOPOLIS •2009Time-consuming
® PAGE 8
Reliability, Validity and Generalizability
• Reliability -- The extent to which results are consistent,
repeatable and stable. Notion of Replicability. Will the measure
yield the same results on different occasions?
• A study has high reliability if its results hold true across
different settings and participants.
• If a study is reliable its results will generalize to the larger
population.
• Internal Validity or the element of control. Does the
instrument measure what it is supposed to measure? Research
has high internal validity when it has successfully measured what it
set out to measure.
• External Validity or Generalizability – accuracy in representing
characteristics of phenomena, truthfulness, how it fits with reality.
The notion of Representativeness. What is the probability that
patterns observed in a sample will also be present in the wider
population from which the sample is drawn?
• The reliability and internal validity of research can be affected by:
• Sampling error (Bias) - Sampling error occurs when an
abnormally large number of units with unusual characteristics
are chosen from a given population.
• Flawed sampling frame
• Poor sampling strategy
• Small sample size
• Non-sampling errors
Threats to Reliability and Internal Validity in Quasi-
Experimental and Non-Experimental Research
• Historical Change
• Participant Maturation
• Participant Mortality
• Testing Effects
• Interviewer Effect
• Participants Knowing the Study
Purpose
• Poorly designed tool for data gathering
• High Refusal Rate

Sources of Data
Primary Secondary
Data Collection Data Compilation
Experimentation Archival Research
Control Groups and National or Local

Comparison Groups Government Reports
Observation Print
In-depth Interviews Electronic / Internet
Surveys
Checklists & tally sheets
Types of Data
• Discrete or Scale Data - values are numeric Data
values on an interval or ratio scale. Whole
numbers that cannot be fractioned or divided.
Age, number of houses, vehicles, Scores of
game, etc.
• Continuous – based on Precision
measurements, height, weight, IQ, temperature,
strength, endurance, track & field times, girth, Qualitative Quantitative
(Categorical) (Numerical)
etc.
• Ordinal - Data values represent categories with
some intrinsic order or property of magnitude,
e.g., vote yes, no or conditional; agree, partially Nominal
Ordinal
agree, disagree, Letter Grades ABCDEF, etc.).
• Nominal -- Data values represent categories
with no intrinsic order e.g. male/female,
Tagalog/ Visayan/Lumad, blood type, color ofUnmeasurable Discrete Continuous
hair, parcel numbers, ID numbers, license plate
number, etc.
• Unmeasurable – e.g. strength of belief in God,
commmitment to political party, control of
sexual appetite, etc.
Consolidation of Data
• Time Series Data
• Ordered data values observed over time
• Cross Section Data
• Data values observed at a fixed point in time
• Panel Data -- Pooled cross section of time series (longitudinal)
Revenues (in 000’000’s)

LGU 2006 2007 2008 2009
Time
Taguig 435 460 475 490
Series
Navotas 320 345 375 395 Data
Pasay 405 390 410 395
Pateros 260 270 285 280
Cross Section Data

Statistics
• Statistics is a set of scientific tools used to
collect, organize and interpret numeric and
non-numeric data and to convert raw data
into processed information helpful to
decision makers.
• “Descriptive Statistics” consists of
procedures used to present and summarize
the information in a set of measurements
to describe the characteristics of the whole
set (whether a sample or the population)
• Descriptive statistics helps in extracting
the basic features of data & provide
summaries about the sample and the
measures.
• Commonly used techniques are graphical
description, tabular description, and
summary statistics
Descriptive Statistics
Continuous Data
Categorical Data
Location Dispersion Shape
• Mean
Frequency (Arithmetic,
• Range • Absolute
Deviation
• Standard
Geometric, Deviation • Variance
Harmonic) • Coefficient of • Semivariance
• Median Variation • Skewness
• Mode • Percentile • Kurtosis
• Central • Moments
Contingency tendency • L-moments
Table • Central Limit
Theorem

Inferential Statistics & Hypothesis Testing
Design of Sample Size General Specific

Inference
Experiment Determination Estimation Tests
• Bayesian
estimator
• Confidence • Controlled • Statistical power • Methods of • Z tests (normal)
Interval experiment • Effect size moments • T-test
• Bayesian • Standard error • Chi-square
• Natural • Range
• Maximum
• Pearson’s Chi-
Interference experiment • Standard likelihood square
• Significance • Observational Deviation • Minimum • Mann-Whitney
• Meta- study • Coefficient of distance U
analysis Variation • Wilcoxon signed
• Replication • Percentile
• Maximum
– rank test
• Blocking spacing
• Density
estimation
Statistics Define research, formulate hypotheses
Gather data / collect sample
Descriptive Statistics Inferential Statistics
1. Percentiles, Confidence Intervals

Measures of Association
quartiles,median
2. Central tendency
(median, mean, mode) Correlation
3. Dispersion (variance, Hypothesis tests
standard deviation, For categorical
coefficient of variation) 1 sample? 2 samples? variables: Phi,
Kramer’s V etc.
Test about mean: t-test Test Continuous? Categorical?

about variance: χ2 test
Pearson χ2 test
Test about means: t-test
Test about variances: F-test
REGRESSION
Descriptive Statistics: Measures of
Central Tendency (“middle region”)
Mode = Median = Mean
• Mean
• Sum of items divided by Count of
items
• Sample Mean ( ) is the arithmetic
average of a data set. n
• Mode: y i
y1  y2    yn
• Value of a set of observations which y  i 1

occur most often or with the greatest n n
frequency – may be more than one
• What value occurs most often? Perfectly
• Data sets can have more than one
mode, while the mean and median Symmetrical
have one unique value
• Median: -- the middle observation
of an ordered dataset Mode Median
• Middle value of observations arranged Mean
according to magnitude, if odd
number of observations; the
arithmetic mean of the 2 middle
values if even
• Sort items high to low
• Select middle item, or average of two
middle items
Skewed
Descriptive Statistics: Measures of
Dispersion
• Range: the difference between the
largest and smallest member of the s2 
 i
( y  y ) 2
set n 1
• High value minus low value
• Variance - represents the amount of
variability of the data relative to their  2

 (yi  ) 2
mean N
• Subtract the mean from each value
• Square each difference
• Sum the squares of the differences and
divide by the number of cases s
 i
( y  y ) 2
• Standard deviation n 1
• a good measure of spread
• Take the square root of the variance
• Can relate to original units
• The “goodness” of the standard
deviation is not its value per se, but   i
( y   ) 2
rather what percentage the standard N

deviation is of the estimated value.
Descriptive Statistics: Data Display
• Bar Charts
• Line Graphs run chart or Scatter plot
• Run (Trend)
trend chart
Charts dot diagram

pie chart
• Pie Charts
• Flow Charts Venn diagram
• Scatter
Diagrams Bar Chart
• Histograms
• Venn diagrams
histogram
Pareto bar chart

Stacked bar chart
Inferential Statistics Sample
• Inferential statistics consists of procedures used to
infer (draw conclusions, make statements, predict, b c
decide) about certain characteristics of one or more
populations by examining information contained in a gi n
sample from these populations
• Inferential statistics help us understand how reliably a o r u
(known) sample statistic represents a (usually
unknown) population parameter.
• Inferential statistics helps in reaching conclusions that
y
extend beyond the immediate data alone.
• Inferential statistics helps in making judgments of an
observed difference between groups is a dependable Population
one or one that might have happened by chance in a
study.
• Discrete Random Variable a b cdef g
• Continuous Random Variables
• Normal Distribution
hi jklm no
• Z Table pq rs t uv
• Confidence intervals for unknown parameters w x yz
• Principles of testing of hypotheses

Inferential Statistics
• Sample statistics Population parameters
(known) Inference (unknown, but can
be estimated from
sample evidence)
Sample Population
• A population is the entire collection of things under consideration

• A parameter is a summary measure computed to describe a
characteristic of the population
• A sample is a portion of the population selected for analysis
• A statistic is a summary measure computed to describe a
characteristic of the sample

Statistical Inference
Five General “Rules” of Inference
1. State hypotheses clearly (if possible, before collecting and
analyzing your data).
2. Understand the nature and limits of the statistical tests.
Be aware of any assumptions about the nature of the data required for
the test.
3. Utilize visual representations (charts/graphs) of data to get a
picture or a feel for what is really happening. Look for outliers. Look for
patterns.
4. Use an alternative method if possible. [If a result is “robust”
across different tests, you have more reason to believe its validity than if
the result is dependent on the type of test used.]
5. Determining conclusions in a reasonable and reliable
manner. The goal is NOT to reject the null hypothesis or to get the
highest p-value (or highest R-squared).

Sampling Frame & Types of Sampling
• Sampling frame is a list of all the individuals (units) in the
population from which the sample is taken.
• Families with numbers in a telephone book
• All regular students of a college
• All cities with independent charter
• Types of Sampling Method
• Simple Random: Units are randomly chosen from the sampling
frame
• Multi-stage: Randomly select population units then randomly
select individuals within unit
• Stratified Random: Rand om sampling of units within categories
(strata) that are assumed to exist within a population
• Systematic Random: Number units within the sampling frame
and select every 5th, 10th, etc.
• Cluster: Clusters (each with multiple units) within a sampling
frame are randomly selected.
• Convenience sampling: selection based on availability or ease
of inclusion
• Purposive sampling: selection of individuals from whom you
may be inclined to get more data
• Quota sampling: selection on the basis of categories that are
assumed to exist within a population
Sampling Techniques
Sampling
Non-Probability Probability Sampling

Sampling
Judgmental Simple Systematic

Random
Purposive
Cluster
Convenience Stratified
Quota Snowball

Coefficient of Variation
• The Coefficient of Variation (CV) is
defined as the “average” percent sy
estimating error when predicting
subsequent observations within the CV 
representative population.
• The CV is the ratio of the standard y
deviation to the mean.
• The standard error of the mean
depends on the standard deviation
of the population and the size of the
sample.
• The smaller the SD of the
population, the smaller the error.
• The larger the sample size, the
smaller the error.

Covariance
• Covariance - a measure of how two
variables both vary relative to one
another.
• Variance shared by 2 variables
( X  X )(Y  Y ) Cross products
Cov XY 
N 1
• Covariance reflects the direction of
the relationship:
+ve cov indicates + relationship
-ve cov indicates - relationship.

Coefficient of Determination
• 1. Proportion of Variation ‘Explained’
by Relationship Between X & Y
0  r2  1
Explained Variation
r 
2
Total Variation
   
n n
  ˆ
2 2
Y  Y
i  Y  Y i
 i 1 i 1
 Y  Y 
n
2
i
i 1

Normal Distribution

Normal Distribution
• Continuous random variables are
associated with populations which
contain an infinitely large number of
observations
• The heights of trees, the weight of
humans, the cost of weapons, and the
error when predicting the cost of a
weapon system are all examples of
continuous random variables.
• These continuous random variables
can take on a variety of shapes, many
of which approximate a bell-shaped
curve. These bell-shaped curves
approximate the normal probability
distribution.
The Empirical Rule: Given a distribution of measurements drawn from a population

that is approximately bell-shaped, the interval
1. y  s will contain approximately 68 percent of the measurements.

2. y  2s will contain approximately 95 percent of the measurements.
3. y  3s will contain approximately all (99.7%) of the measurements.
t-distribution
• The t-distribution is
completely characterized
by only one parameter,
the "degrees of freedom".
• The degrees of freedom is
equal to n (the sample
size) minus 1.
• The t-distribution looks
like a standard normal,
but has heavier tails. As
n increases, the t-
distribution begins to
converge to a standard
normal. You can explore
the t-distribution on the
sample Excel worksheet
"Distributions"

Example

Hypothesis Testing
• In an ideal research setting, we define a strategy to
follow this order:
1. Formulate hypothesis
2. Figure out what test statistic will test this hypothesis
3. Collect data
4. Perform the statistical test
5. Accept or reject the hypothesis.
• Four elements in any hypothesis test
1. A null hypothesis: H0
2. An alternative hypothesis, Ha
3. A test statistic (how calculate, its distribution)
4. A rejection region (you want to be in the rejection region!)
• Note: The null hypothesis, H0 and the alternative hypothesis Ha should

be mutually exclusive and exhaustive.
• Types of errors.
– Type I error: reject a true null hypothesis. (commonly called α)
– Type II error: fail to reject a false null. (commonly called β)
Hypothesis Testing
• Almost all correlations are not 0, therefore “What is the
likelihood that a relationship between variables is a ‘true’
relationship, or could it simply be a result of random sampling
variability or ‘chance’”?
• Null hypothesis (H0): assumes that there is no ‘true’
relationship
• Alternative hypothesis (H1): assumes that the relationship is
real
• We initially assume the null hypothesis, and evaluate whether
the data support the alternative hypothesis
• Null hypothesis: H0: r = 0
• Alternative hypothesis H0: r <> 0
r rho = population product-moment correlation coefficient
• Use statistical tests of probability which produce a p value
• Convention specifies a criterion for statistical significance of
0.05 (alpha level)
• We generate a r value and compare it to 0.05.
• If r is less than 0.05, this indicates statistical significance and
less than a 5% chance that the relationship being tested is
due to random sampling variability

Hypothesis testing: The Z-test
• Consider first the standard normal case. The formula for the
z-test statistic:
x
z
/ n
• Given a standard normal, what is the probability of an
absolute value less than that shown on the z-statistic?
Absolute value simply means below the lower bound and
above the upper bound – that is, a two-sided test.
• In the case of the z-test, the absolute value of any z-test

statistic less than 1.96 would have a p-value greater than
0.05, which would mean failing to reject the null hypothesis.
• Any absolute value z-test statistic greater than 1.96 would

have a p-value less than 0.05, and hence we would reject
the null and accept the alternative hypothesis, or have
"statistical significance."
Common Statistical Tests
Purpose of Test Parametric Test Non-parametric Equivalent
To compare two independent samples TWO SAMPLE (UNPAIRED) t TEST Mann-Whitney U test
drawn from the same population
To compare two sets of observations on a ONE SAMPLE (PAIRED) t TEST Wilcoxon matched pairs test
single sample
To compare three or more sets of ONE WAY ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE Kruskall-Wallis analysis of
observations on a single variable on (f TEST) USING TOTAL SUM OF variance by ranks
either a single or multiple samples SQUARES
To compare three or more sets of TWO WAY ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE Two way analysis of variance
observations on a two variables on (ANOVA) by ranks
single or multiple samples
To test the null hypothesis that the NA Chi-square test
distribution of a nominal variable is the Fisher's exact test
same in two or more independent
samples (proportionate representation
To assess the strength of association PRODUCT MOMENT CORRELATION Spearman's rank correlation
between two continuous (interval or COEFFICIENT (PEARSON'S R) coefficient
ratio) measures.
To describes the numerical relation REGRESSION BY LEAST SQUARES Non-parametric regression
between two interval or ratio variables, METHOD (various tests)
allowing one value to be predicted
from the other
To describe the numerical relation between MULTIPLE REGRESSION BY LEAST Non-parametric regression
a dependent variable and several SQUARES METHOD (various tests)
predictor variables (covariates)
Correlation & Regression Analysis
Linear Non- Non-normal

Correlation
Regression standard errors
• Pearson-Product • Simple linear • Generalized

• Nonlinear
Moment Correlation regression linear model
• Ordinary least square
regression
• Rank correlation • Nonparametric • Binomial
• General linear model
(Spearman’s Rho) • Semiparametric • Poisson
• Analysis of variance
• Partial correlation • Analysis of • Robust • Logistic
• Compounding covariance
variable

Time Series
Decomposition Spectral density

estimation
Trend Estimation Box-

Jenkins
Multivariate Statistics
Multivariate Cluster
regression Analysis
Principal Factor
Components Analysis
Correlation
• Correlational analyses are used to examine the extent to
which two variables have a simple linear relationship.
• Correlations provide the building blocks for:
• Factor analysis
• Reliability
• Regression
• Linear relationship between 2 variables:
• direction and
• strength
• ranges from -1 to +1
• Sign indicates direction
• Size indicates strength
• Measures the extent to which:
• differences in one variable can be predicted from differences in the other
variable
• one variable varies with another variable
• A correlation is also an effect size.
• Correlation is a measure of the strength of linear association
between two variables
• Values between -1 and +1
• Values close to -1 indicate strong negative relationship
• Values close to +1 indicate strong positive relationship
• Values close to 0 indicate weak relationship Underlying principles of linear
and multiple linear regression
• Correlation does not prove causation – may be in opposite
direction, co-causal, or due to other variables
Coefficient of Correlation Values
Perfect Negative Perfect Positive
No Correlation Correlation
Correlation
-1.0 -.5 0 +.5 +1.0

Increasing degree of Increasing degree of
negative correlation positive correlation
• Types of Correlation
• Product-moment or Pearson’s r
• Spearman’s Rho rank order
• Kendall’s Tau b
• Phi / Cramer’s V
• Point bi-serial rpb
The Pearson ‘r’ Correlation
Coefficient
 


r =
[


 ][

 ]
Types of
Probabilistic Probabilistic
Models
Models
Regression Correlation Other

Models
Regression Models Models
2+ Explanatory
1 Explanatory
Simple Multiple Variables
Variable
Non- Non-
Linear Linear
Linear Linear

Bivariate y   0  1x   Only one
linear
independent
(explanatory)
variable
regression Random Error
Y-Intercept Slope
• Regression is the process of finding a line of best fit

through a series of data points
• Can also use the SLOPE, INTERCEPT, CORREL and RSQ
functions
• Linear -- Assumes a straight line can be used to describe
the relationship between the independent (x) variable and
the dependent (y) variable. When an x coefficient is
positive, higher values of x lead to higher values of y; when
negative, lower.
• y = a + b*x
• a is the line’s y intercept
• b is the line’s slope
• The term ε represents the unpredicted or unexplained
variation in the response variable; it is conventionally called
the “error” whether it is really a measurement error or not,
and is assumed to be independent of X.
Y = mX + b
i = Random error X
Error or “residual”
Change
m = Slope in Y
Change in X
b = Y-intercept
0
0 20

Extrapolation and Curve Fitting
• Assume future change of same amount added
or subtracted per unit of time
• Assume future change of same percentage
increase (or decrease) per unit of time
• Plot the historical data
• Fit a curve to the data
• Made easier in Excel with “insert trendline”
• Derive the equation of the fitted curve
• Use the equation to calculate future values.

Extrapolation and Curve-Fitting:
Finding the “line of best fit”
Equation
Line of best fit
Calculate the gradient:

m=h÷b
m = 3 ÷ 10 = 0.3
Read off
the y- h=3
intercept m = 0.3
(c)
2.1 b = 10
y = mx + c
The l.o.b.f. equation is: y = 0.3 x + 2.1

Other Tools of
Planning
Research

Population Projection
1. Arithmetic Method / Linear
• .The growth rate is assumed to be constant, with non-compounding incremental
growth Calculated exactly the same as using linear regression (least-squares
criterion).
• Advantages: Simplest curve;Most widely used, Useful for slow or non-growth areas
• P0+n = P(0) + mn
where:
n = no. of years between 0 and 0+n
P(0+n)= population to be forecast at time 0+n (the projection year)
P(0) = population at time 0 (the base year)
m = gradient
P0+n = P(0) + mn
Year Population
1951 100 000
1961 110 000
1971 120 000
1981 130 000
1991 ?
2. Geometric Method
• a growth rate is assumed to be compounded at set
intervals using a constant growth rate. To transform this
equation into a linear equation, we use logarithms.
• Advantages: Assumes a constant rate of growth, Still
simple to use
• Disadvantage: Does not take into account a growth limit
Total Population
h
• Pt = P0 (1+r)t
o wt
gr
r = ln (Pt /P0)
n
io
t
at
ul
p
where:
Po
Pt = projected popn for a certain year
P0= base year T ime
r = rate of growth
t = time interval between the base and projected years

2. Geometric Method
(Example):
Given: P2000 76 498 735
P1995 68 616 536
r = ln (Pt /P0)
t
Total Population
h
wt
= ln (76,498,735 / 68,616,536)
o
gr
5
n
tio
r = 0.0217
la
pu
Po
Pt = P0 (1+r)t
P2010 = P2000 (1+ 0.0217)10
P2010 = 76 498 735 (1.0217)10 T ime
P2010 = 94 817 431
y  ab x

3. Exponential Method
• Very similar to geometric, even faster
compounding rate
• Also called “Malthusian” growth --
Means unlimited, rapid growth --
Growth without bounds
• It is an unnatural occurrence
• It is a result of super abundance of
food within a habitat / territory
• It is often used wrongly
Exponential Method
Pt
r
= P0 ert
= [ log (Pt /P0) ]
Pt= P0 e rt
t log e
where:
Pt = projected population for a certain
year
P0 = base year
e = constant (the e of 1 is 2.71828)
r = rate of growth
t = time interval between the base and
projected years

3. Exponential Method
Given: P2000 76 498 735
P1995 68 616 536
r = [ log (Pt /P0) ]
t log e
= [ log (76,498,735 / 68,616,536 ) ]
5 log e
= .047225464
2.011679619
= 0.0234 or 2.34%
Pt = P0 ert
P2010 = P2000 e .0234 (10)
P2010 = 76 498 735 e .234
P2010 = 96 667 190

Estimate, Projection, Forecast
• An estimate is an indirect measure of a present or past
condition that can not be directly measured because of lack
of clear data, lack of time, or cost to do the full study.
• A projection (or prediction) is a conditional statement about
the future. Projections are estimates of future populations
based on statistical models that extrapolate past and
present trends into the future. Projections can be created
through very simple or very complex calculations. The type
of calculations used is based on the available data and
desired use of the projection.
• A forecast is a judgmental statement of what the analyst
believes to be the most likely future. Forecasts, however,
include additional adjustments made to reflect assumptions
of future changes.
• Targets express desirable future populations based on
policies and goals.

Quantitative vs. Qualitative Research
Quantitative Qualitative
Positivistic, Empirical, Experimental Interpretive, Construction of Reality
Falsification
Correlational Ethnographic
Structured research instruments, Less structured instruments, Case Studies,
Structured Interview surveys, mailed Unstructured Interview, Participant
questionnaires Observation
Larger sample size Smaller sample size
Tests of Performance, Attitude Diary Keeping, Narratives
Intervention
Results easily replicated Results difficult to replicate
Information about how often or how Information about why and how
many
Nomothetic Ideographic, Hermeneutic
Less in-depth, flexible More in-depth, flexible
Researcher should know clearly what Researcher may only know roughly what
he / she is looking for he / she is looking for
Statistical analysis Analysis is subjective
Can be used to determine the focus of
follow-up, quantitative inquiries
Survey Method vs Participatory Method
Survey Questionnaire Participatory Methods
Research
Extractive Participative
Long time required for learning Short time required for learning
High cost Low Cost
Fixed Flexible
Low participation High Participation
Analysis in the office On-the-spot analysis
Heavy statistical analysis Minimal statistical analysis
Formal questionnaires Semi-structured interviews
Decision-making on interviewer Broadens decision-making process
One-time use Iterative

Qualitative Data Analysis
Steps of Qualitative
Data Analysis:
• Data transcription
• Organizing data &
numbering
• Familiarization
• Initial coding
• Combining and
renaming codes
• Re-coding
• Generating &
summarizing
themes

Using Scale and Ranking to Transform
Qualitative to Quantitative Data
Ratio
Highest Level
Complete Analysis
Measurements
Interval Data
Rankings Higher Level

Ordered Categories Ordinal Data Mid-level Analysis
Categorical Codes Lowest Level

ID Numbers Nominal Data Basic Analysis
Category Names

Other Forms of Data Analysis
• graphical approaches in data analysis employ
a variety of techniques to:
• maximize insight into a data set
• uncover underlying structure
• extract important variables
• detect outliers and anomalies
• formulate hypotheses worth testing
• develop parsimonious models
• provide a basis for further data collection through
surveys or experiments
• Comparative Analysis
• Gender analysis

Other Forms of Descriptive Data Analysis
• Cause & Effect
Diagrams
• Problem Tree
cause and effect diagram also
called Ishakawa fishbone chart
• Fault-Tree Analysis
• Concentration
Diagrams
• Flow Charts
Matrix diagram • Affinity Grouping
Tree diagram
Process
Decision
Program
Chart
Interrelationship
diagram
Affinity Diagram
Prioritization Matrix
Participatory Qualitative Data Collection
• Windshield Survey and Field surveys
(land)
• Rapid Rural Appraisal
• Transect Mapping
• Problem identification through imagery
• Experts’ Opinion -- Delphi technique
• Key informant interviews – local
experts, sectoral leaders; use Data
Collection Forms
• Focused Group Discussions;
Brainstorming with key stakeholders
• Case Studies
• -- Participant Observation in local
activities by external consultant

Participatory Social Analysis
Exit
Entry
point
4. Evaluation Phase
Selecting the host
organization and Evaluation
process focus
Measures to sustain
Terms of the Process
1. Contract, Reference
Scoping
Phase 3. Institutionalization
Key-
stakeholder
Phase
training
Consultation and
Action Implementation
Research &
Mobilization
Focus Workshops,
additional Research
Issue identification,
Analysis and selection
of Champions
2. Assessment Phase
Participatory Action Research- Community
Organizing (PAR-CO)
• Participatory Data Gathering

• Participatory Social Analysis
• Formulating Collective Goals and Strategies
• Programming and Organizing Actions & Tasks
• Collective Leadership – inspiring, motivating,
communicating, directing, enforcing, disciplining,
rewarding
• Mobilizing (resources, personnel) – Confronting
Authorities, Negotiating, Mass Action, BATNA
• Managing – handling intra-group relationships,
conflict-management, sustaining changes,
executing contingencies,
• Assessing Results, Evaluating Impact
• Re-planning

People participate in Community Mapping

• Process: “A collection of activities
that takes one or more kinds of input
from one or more different sources
and produces values for the
client/customer.”

stock Inflow /
input

Developing the problem tree
The substantial and direct effects of the
focal problem are placed parallel on the line
above it
(a) Addressing the
effects identifies
indicators of
achievement
Effect
(b) Turning the
Focal problem problem into a
positive statement
Cause gives the project
purpose
s
(c) Addressing the
causes of the
problem identifies
activities and
The substantial and direct causes of the focal outputs
problem are placed parallel on the line
underneath it
Example of Analysis of Functional Relationships
Exchange
Publc Market
Termina
Transport
Center
Government
Hospital
Schools
facilities
Gym Recreation
Child Care
Open Space
Exchange
Public Market
Transport Terminal
Government Center
Hospitals
Schools
Gym/ Recreation Facilities
Child Care
Open Space

SWOT
• Strategic Planning and
Management is the overall
framework of SWOT
• Also called innovative
planning – focused on new
product, process, pattern,
people, or tool.
• Focused on “Organizational
Fitness” to pursue goals by
exploiting external
opportunities and rectifying
internal shortcomings.
• Not merely enumerating
internal and external factors
but inter-relating them to
create a forward strategy.
From ‘Strategic Planning and Management’: “SWOT
Analysis and Formulation of Strategies”
SWOT Matrix STRENGTHS (S) WEAKNESSES (W)
List Major strengths List major
Weaknesses
OPPORTUNITIES SO STRATEGIES WO STRATEGIES

(O) Use strengths to Overcome
List major take advantage of weaknesses by
opportunities opportunities taking advantage of
opportunities
THREATS (T) ST STRATEGIES WT STRATEGIES

List major Use strengths to Minimize
threats avoid threats weaknesses and
avoid threats

From ‘Strategic Planning and Management’:
SWOT Analysis and Strategic Fit
OPPORTUNITIES THREATS
STRENGTHS Aggressive Diversification
WEAKNESS Turnaround Defensive

Scenario
Analysis
• Do nothing
• Low Growth
• High growth scenario
• Worst case scenario
• others
Lay down Assumptions:
--Universal Assumptions (No wars, no catastrophic
events)
--Method-Based Assumptions (Future rates)
--Local Area-Based Assumptions (Future of industry)
--Regional-Based Assumptions (region’s future
growth)
Scenario Analysis and Forecasting
Current Trend
Current Revised
State End-States
Capacity
Preferred
Future State
Policy or other Changes
Time

Goals versus Objectives
• Goals are broad statements and
pertain to an ideal we want to
reach such as “end homelessness”
or “improve the quality of life in the
community.”
• While objectives are steps towards
reaching the goal and must be
measurable, time-limited, related
to a specific task or process,
evaluable.
• Goals are broad; objectives are
narrow.
• Goals are general intentions;
objectives are precise.
• Goals have abstract intangible
ends; Objectives have concrete
tangible ends.
• Goals can't be validated as they
are; Objectives can be validated.
Goals versus Objectives
GOALS OBJECTIVES
Very short Longer statement,
statement, few more descriptive
words
Broad in scope Narrow in scope
Directly relates to Indirectly relates to the
the Mission Mission Statement
Statement
Covers long time Covers short time
period (such as 10 period (such as 1 year
years) budget cycle)
Formulation of Goals
• Method of Goal Formulation
• Identify client
• Identify distribution of values among clients
• Arrange the goals as hierarchy
• Establish measures or standards
• Apply measures to goals
• Express the planning problem as requirement to be satisfied
• Design means/strategy to reaching the goals of the Plan
• Evaluate the means
• Evaluating Goals
• Are they consistent with Vision, Mission and Values?
• They serve to organize, give meaning to actions
• They are set to translate Vision into reality
• They define what we want to achieve; The building blocks of
organizational Mission
• ‘Goals are dreams with milestones’
• Are they feasible? Acceptable? What are the consequences?
• Are they challenging and bold?
• They can be long-, intermediate-, or short-term; Should represent broad
ends; may not be met during planning period
Formulation of SMART Objectives
• SMART Test (by George Doran)
• Are objectives specific enough to achieve goals set?
• Are they measurable?
• Are they achievable?
• Is the reason behind each objective apparent? – and realistic?
• If it is to be attained before the end of planning horizon, is there a
time or date in the objective?
• ‘Task objectives’ focus on completing a specific activity or
delivering a specific number of services.
• ‘Process objectives’ are means used to complete a task-
related activity.
• Objectives should be easily understood
• Objectives should suggest ways of measuring their achievement
or non-achievement
• Should have a good balance between challenge and achievability
• Not too ambitious, but significantly advanced beyond the current
state
• Should be the “ends” to be met during the planning period

Criteria for Selecting Indicators
• Validity: well grounded in sound data and accurately
depicts a real situation
• Measurability: data can be obtained for the community
• Consistency and reliability: data can be researched
reliably over a period of time
• Clarity: unambiguous; understandable by a diverse group
of people, Clearly state and accurately reflect its intent
• Cost-effectiveness: data collection is not overly
expensive, Use affordable, relevant, and accessible data
sources
• Relevance: important to the community’s issues. Be
meaningful and useful to stakeholders; Be appropriate to
its political, institutional, jurisdictional, or other contexts;
• Comprehensiveness: represent many parts of an issue
and reduces the need for an excessive number of
indicators. Connect and be consistent with well-articulated
vision statements and goals
• Result from close collaboration with stakeholders during
selection, application, and review processes

“LogFrame” or
‘Logical Framework’
or ‘Z.O.P.P’ (originally
German)
Logframe or ZOPP

Logical Framework Approach
• Analytical, presentational and management tool
which can help planners and managers:
• Analyze the existing situation
• Establish a logical hierarchy of means by which
objectives will be reached
• Establish how outputs and outcomes might best be
monitored and evaluated
• Present a summary in a standard format
• The approach involves problem analysis,
stakeholder analysis, developing a hierarchy of
objectives and selecting a preferred
implementation strategy

Logical Framework Matrix
Description Indicators Means of Assumptions
Verification
Goal
Purpose
Component
Objective
Outputs
Activities
• The product of logical framework analysis

• It summarizes what are intended to be done and
how, what the assumptions are, and how outputs
will be monitored and evaluated
The Vertical Logic
• Identifies what the intentions are, clarifies the causal
relationships, and specifies the important assumptions and
uncertainties beyond the manager’s control
Goal National and sectoral objectives

Purpose What the program is expected to achieve
in terms of development outcome
Component Objective statement per component

Objectives
Outputs Specific results and tangible products

(goods and services) produced by
undertaking a series of activities
Activities Specific tasks undertaken to achieve

required outputs
The Horizontal Logic
• Defines how objectives specified in description will
be measured, and the means by which the
measurement will be verified
• Provides the framework for monitoring and
evaluation
Indicators Means of Assumptions
Verification
Information needed to Specify expected Conditions which
determine progress towards source of could affect progress
meeting project objectives information needed of success of project
to collect data
Should have a clearly defined Positive statement of

unit of measurement and a a condition that must
target detailing quantity, be met to achieve
quality, and timing of expected project activities
results

The Logical Framework Matrix
Structure and Sequence for Completion
Description Indicators Means of Assumptions
Verification (MOVs)
Goal Indicators MOVs
Purpose Indicators MOVs Assumptions
Component Indicators MOVs Assumptions

Objectives
Outputs Indicators MOVs Assumptions
Activities Milestones Management Reports Assumptions

specified in on Physical &
activity Financial Progress
schedules

Program Evaluation & Review Technique
• It is a project management technique that
defines shared activities and creates a
sequence of events.
• PERT illustrates how different tasks are
related.
• PERT involves the following steps:
• define tasks
• Identify the specific activities and milestones.
• link in proper sequence the activities.
• Construct a network diagram.
• Estimate the time required to complete each task
• find slack time (difference between expected
time and latest time)
• find probability of meeting expected time
• Determine the critical path.
• Update the PERT chart as the project progresses.
Activity Network
Diagram or PERT
PERT-CPM

Critical Path Method
Activity EF = ES + t Slack = LF – EF = LS - ES
Expected
Time
LS = LF - t
ES Earliest Starting (time)

EF Earliest Finishing ES[D] = max {EF[A], EF[b]}
LS Latest Starting
LF Latest Finishing LF[A] = min {LS[C], LS[D]}
Slack - Extra Time
Critical Path Method
• Critical Path Method identifies activities

to complete a project.
• CPM illustrates how one task must be
completed before beginning another
• Steps
• Revise PERT estimates to arrive at
minimum time, neither wasting nor sparing
costs.
• estimate time & cost, “crashed” and
normal
• determine cost-per-week for crashing
(crashed costs/time saved)
• crash cheapest path on the critical path
• recalculate project network
• continue 3 & 4 until all paths are crashed
• ease up on noncritical paths, until all paths
are critical
Shewhart and Deming Chart for
Quality Control
Shewhart & Deming
Control Chart chart
Action Limit
Warning Limit
95% 99.8%
Target size (Mean)
Warning Limit
Action Limit
95% = 2 s.d. 99.8% = 3 s.d.

Modeling & Simulation
• Spatial Models are known as Algorithms Dynamic models
• Activities in economic space, social
space, or perceptual space are
represented by algebraic or graphical
methods
• Types of Models
• Descriptive – micro-scale, static,
ignores time element, synthesizes data,
replicates real world
• Prescriptive – deterministic, linear
• Dynamic – macro-scale, behavioral,
have variables whose rate of change
are specified with respect to time, non-
linear.
• Predictive – stochastic, simulation,
shows causal relationship
• Examples of Models
• Linear Programming - -- method of
determining an optimum program of
interdependent activities in view of
available resources (Schlager)
• Non-Linear Programming
• Dynamic Programming
• Integer Programming Prescriptive linear model: Urbanization in Beijing
• Multi-objective Programming
Modeling & Simulation
Design/ Solve
Formulate
Identify Model or Model, Test Implement
Problem mathematical Run Solution
equation Solution
simulation
Unsatisfactory Evaluate
Results, Adapt effectiveness of
model if required model

Tools in
Plan
Evaluation

Decision Tools in Plan Evaluation
• Cost-Benefit Analysis
• Financial CBA
• Extended CBA
• Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
• (More About These Tools will be Explained Under the Lecture “Project
Development and Management”)
• Alternatives to CBA
• Planning Balance Sheet
• Goal Achievement Matrix
• Multi-criteria Analysis
• Cost –Revenue Analysis / Fiscal impact analysis – Tackled under
Budgetting Function of Local Institutions
• Environmental Impact Assessment (expected ground-level effects) –
SEPARATE LECTURE
• Strategic Environmental Assessment (long-term policies) – SEPARATE
LECTURE

Alternatives to Cost-Benefit Analysis
• The Total Cost of a Project Over its Lifetime and The
Annualized Cost of a Project: These two costs can be used
to compare two or more projects that will provide identical
benefits. However, if the benefits of the alternative projects
are not identical, then cost benefit analysis must be used.
• Planning Balance Sheet: A planning balance sheet is
actually an evaluation matrix, with competing projects
forming the rows and evaluation criteria forming the columns.
With a little creativity, a planning balance sheet can evaluate
economic, social, and environmental criteria – on both a
short-term and a long-term basis – that are difficult to
quantify in terms of money, and thus, hard to include in cost
benefit analyses.
• Goals Achievement Matrix: A goals achievement matrix is
only a simple variation of a planning balance sheet. The
various socio-economic groups that the competing projects
could cost or benefit form the table’s columns, instead of the
evaluationcriteria found in planning balance sheets.

Goal Achievement Matrix by Morris Hill (1966)
β
Goal
Description α γ δ
Relative
Weight 2 3 4 1
Incidence Relative Costs Benefits Relative Costs Benefits Relative Costs Benefits Relative Costs Benefits
Weight Weight Weight Weight
Group a 1 A D 5 E - 1 M N 1 Q R
Group b 3 H J 4 - R 2 M - 2 S T
Group c 1 L J 3 - S 3 M - 1 V W
Group d 2 - J 2 T - 4 M - 2 - -
Group e 1 - K 1 T U 5 M P 1 - -
SUM SUM SUM SUM
Where: α, γ, β, α are goals with relative weights 2, 3, 5, 4

Groups of people a, b, c, etc. have different strengths of feeling about each
goal as shown in their respective relative weights
Costs and benefits can be expressed monetary, physical or qualitative terms;
summation can’t be done when where intangibles are involved

Multi-criteria analysis (MCA)
• Judging the expected performance of
each development option against a
number of criteria or objectives
• Taking an overall view on the basis of
a pre-assigned importance to each
criterion
• The essence of MCA lies in the
preparation of a performance matrix
and performance indicators
• How to determine weights?
• Inter-temporal comparisons

Example of Planning Balance Sheet
Costs (£m) Benefits (£m)
Group Item C P C P
A. producers/Operators
1.0 Metropolitan and local
authorities Construction and site enginnering 14.6 5.2
Savings on Services m* m0‡
(Ground rents) (11.4 6.5)
2.0 National Governemnt Construction and site enginnering 7 2.8†
Grants 0.4 (2.5)
(Ground rents) (6.6 )
3.0 Developers Construction and site enginnering 49.8 29.8
(Ground rents) (25.2 13.5)
4.0 Business in area
4.1 Business displaced Benefits lost 31.5 14.9
Disruption 5.6 0.5
4.2 Business not displaced Loss to trade, etc. m* m0
4.3 New business Agglomeration economics m0 m*
Benefits of occupation 102.5 62.5
5.0 Business outside area Loss of contact m** m*
6.0 Consumers
7.0 Other Stakeholdrs
Total Q 108.9 53.2 102.5 62.5
Benefit-cost ratio 0.98 1.2
Multi-criteria analysis (MCA)
Tourist
Farmer
Fisherfolk Traders Employees, Civil industry
Stakeholder
Stakeholder Stakeholder Housewives, Society: Retention
s LGU: Cost
(Coastal : and Informal Ability to of Overall
Improveme Effectiven
Resource Circulation Sector: Access avoid heritage, Score
nt in ess
Protection) infrastructur to services environme character
Market
e and utilities ntal effects of place
Links
15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 10% 100%

Alternative e.g.
One 76
Alternative e.g
Two 92
Alternative e.G
Three 88


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Methods of

© ECOPOLIS 2009 ® PAGE 1

© ECOPOLIS 2009 ® PAGE 2

© ECOPOLIS 2009 ® PAGE 4

Cross-sectional Longitudinal Correlational Descriptive

Basic Applied Basic Applied Basic Applied

© ECOPOLIS 2009 ® PAGE 5

© ECOPOLIS 2009 ® PAGE 6

 Basic processes we think explain the

 Operational definition, specific prediction.

 The specific methods we use are more

 Actual pattern of outcomes we analyze

 The “meaning” of a finding for the theory,

© ECOPOLIS 2009 ® PAGE 10

Experimentation Archival Research

Control Groups and National or Local

In-depth Interviews Electronic / Internet

Revenues (in 000’000’s)

Cross Section Data

© ECOPOLIS 2009 ® PAGE 15

Design of Sample Size General Specific

Gather data / collect sample

Descriptive Statistics Inferential Statistics

1. Percentiles, Confidence Intervals

Test about mean: t-test Test Continuous? Categorical?

rather what percentage the standard N

Charts dot diagram

Pareto bar chart

© ECOPOLIS 2009 ® PAGE 21

• A population is the entire collection of things under consideration

© ECOPOLIS 2009 ® PAGE 22

© ECOPOLIS 2009 ® PAGE 23

Non-Probability Probability Sampling

Judgmental Simple Systematic

© ECOPOLIS 2009 ® PAGE 25

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© ECOPOLIS 2009 ® PAGE 28

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The Empirical Rule: Given a distribution of measurements drawn from a population

1. y  s will contain approximately 68 percent of the measurements.

© ECOPOLIS 2009 ® PAGE 31

© ECOPOLIS 2009 ® PAGE 32

• Note: The null hypothesis, H0 and the alternative hypothesis Ha should

© ECOPOLIS 2009 ® PAGE 34

• In the case of the z-test, the absolute value of any z-test

• Any absolute value z-test statistic greater than 1.96 would

Linear Non- Non-normal

• Pearson-Product • Simple linear • Generalized

© ECOPOLIS 2009 ® PAGE 37

Decomposition Spectral density

Trend Estimation Box-

-1.0 -.5 0 +.5 +1.0

Regression Correlation Other

© ECOPOLIS 2009 ® PAGE 42

• Regression is the process of finding a line of best fit

© ECOPOLIS 2009 ® PAGE 44

© ECOPOLIS 2009 ® PAGE 45

Calculate the gradient:

© ECOPOLIS 2009 ® PAGE 46

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© ECOPOLIS 2009 ® PAGE 49

P2010 = 94 817 431