Clark University

The Roepke Lecture in Economic Geography Location Theory, Location-Allocation Models,

and Service Development Planning in the Third World
Author(s): Gerard Rushton
Source: Economic Geography, Vol. 64, No. 2 (Apr., 1988), pp. 97-120
Published by: Clark University
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/144118
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Economic Geography

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 ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY

VOL. 64 APRIL, 1988 No. 2

THE ROEPKE LECTURE IN ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY*

LOCATION THEORY, LOCATION-ALLOCATION MODELS,

AND SERVICE DEVELOPMENT PLANNING

IN THE THIRD WORLD

GERARD RUSHTON

The University of Iowa

The absence of an integrated system of settlements providing services and

facilities is often cited as a cause of underdevelopment in rural areas. Location-
allocation analysis systems provide an explicit framework for diagnosing service
accessibility problems, measuring the efficiency of recent locational decisions and
the current levels of settlement efficiency, and generating viable alternatives for
action by decision makers. Development objectives are realized only when these
models are applied within a broader location theory framework in which the often
antagonistic behaviors of the many actors are recognized.

The debate about the role of location
theory in planning services for regional
development has raised many interesting
questions. I believe that from this debate
an outline of a new theory for the location
of services is emerging, and that, like all
good theory, it will have a universal
appeal to the solution of service delivery
problems everywhere. Because this new
theory will have social and political com-
ponents, in addition to the economic
components on which its progenitor, cen-
tral place theory, was based, I will call it
"service development theory." The expe-
riences of third world countries in devel-
oping new service systems have contrib-
uted significantly to the development of
this theory.
The evolution of this theory has not
been simple, and an interesting debate
that began about ten years ago is far from
over. Both sides of the debate argued that
improvements in access to services are
essential for rural development and there-

'The Roepke Lecture in Economic Geography was tion of this paper. He also acknowledges support
established to honor the late Professor Howard G. from NSF Grants SES-7925069 and SES-8616644
Roepke who served on faculty of the University of and the benefit of discussions in the past five years
Illinois at Urbana-Champaign from 1952 until 1985. on the subject of location theory and regional
The lecturer is chosen by the geography faculty of development planning with Eric Belsky, Paul Den-
sham, Hugh Evans, Gerald Karaska, P. D. Mahadev,
that institution in consultation with the editor of this
journal. The paper was read at the Annual Meeting Michael McNulty, Dennis Rondinelli, Vinod K.
of the Association of American Geographers, April, Tewari, and Lakshman Yapa. He also thanks
1988. The author would like to thank Ron Schultz Carolyn Rushton for editorial assistance.
and Sam Ratick for their comments at the presenta-

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98 ECONOMIc GEOGRAPHY

fore argued for designing "integrated region to region. The task of spatial plan-
regional planning projects" [56;95]. ning is to derive this optimal form for the
Johnson [56], an economic historian, social, physical, and economic conditions
showed how the availability of urban ser- of each area. The method, they believed,
vices was critical to rural development. was to integrate social and spatial rela-
He found that many developed countries tionships, recognizing that just as existing
had invested heavily in linkages between spatial organizations constrain, maintain,
town and country in the early stages of or enable changes in social relationships,
their economic development. In this way, so changes in spatial organizations can
he argued, formerly isolated rural regions affect future social relations. These pro-
became an integral part of the developed jects recognized a relationship between
world. Any comparative advantages they social and spatial structure: the power of
had over other regions could then form any actor over others is affected by the
the basis of mutually advantageous inter- spatial organization of activities; the goals
regional trade. Others, from contempor- of one group in a given region might be
ary observations, argued that inaccessi- antithetical to the goals of another;
bility to resources for the production changes in the spatial organization of
process and to basic human services is a activities can affect the relative powers of
barrier to increased agricultural produc- different groups in the long run.
tivity and increased social welfare in rural In such conditions, resource allocation
areas. Both arguments provided the rati- decisions made rationally at a sectoral
onale for a number of projects which level appeared to become a system of
sought to strengthen rural development patronage at the local level. The solution,
by developing urban services [42;75; they argued, was to maintain the rational-
92;97;99;107;108;109;127]. These spa- ity of resource allocation at the local level
tially redistributive policies were a part of by seeing the demand conditions of the
sectoral policies designed by govern- rural population as the driving force in
ments to increase resources available to inducing suppliers to locate wherever the
dispersed rural populations. rural demand assured sufficient support.
The debate is really about the imple- The planning questions were to identify
mentation of these arguments. On one the locations that would best meet the
side, there are those who adopted the needs of the rural population and to
theorems of central place theory-the determine whether these locations were
deduced spatial structures [193]-and at- viable for the supplier of the service. The
tempted to implement them in real condi- difficult problem was to reconcile the
tions. To them, the practise of regional sometimes conflicting needs of suppliers
planning was to examine the current patt- and consumers and to reconcile the loca-
ern of central place activities and spatial tional criteria of different sectors of the
linkages between producers and consu- economy.
mers and then to identify projects that Adoption of central place logic to the
would strengthen the existing urban sys- planning of services for rural develop-
tem by bringing it closer to the ideal spa- ment accepts three principles: (a) the
tial structure [23;95;99]. purpose of an urban function is to meet
On the other side of the debate were the service needs of a dispersed rural
those who adopted the logic of central population; (b) the locations of these
place theory but argued that the theorems functions are to serve the rural population
were specific to particular geographical with efficiency and equity; and, (c) the
and social-political conditions that were behavior of consumers and providers in
not found in most developing countries the service system should reflect typical
[86;111]. They believed that the spatial behaviors in the particular social, cultu-
form that provides goods and services ral, and economic context of the applica-
efficiently and equitably is different from tion-behaviors that often lack consensus

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 LOCATION
among the various persons or groups who
participate in the decision making pro-
cess.
Where services already exist, applica-
tion of the logic of central place theory
involves: an evaluation to discover which
rural populations do not have adequate
geographical access to important goods
and services (principle a); a decision rule
to select the locations that can serve these
needs within the constraints of limited
resources most effectively (principle b);
and an evaluation of the likely behavioral
response of consumers and providers in
the particular context to the hypothetical
change in service provision to determine
whether the needs identified would
indeed be met by the proposed action
(principle c). The appropriate geogra-
phical arrangement of the services for
rural development is thus derived from
the logic. There is no guarantee, for
example, that the result of the application
of this logic in a specific context would be
a hierarchical arrangement of goods and
services in urban centers. The form that
best accomplishes a given purpose will
change according to the context. The task
of spatial planning is to establish the
degree to which the current spatial struc-
ture of services is an impediment to
development, to estimate the develop-
ment that might come from improving
access to specific services, and to derive
optimal interventions consistent with the
social, physical, and economic conditions
of each area. The inappropriateness of
conventional methods of regional analy-
sis to accomplish this purpose is clearly
illustrated by Rondinelli and Ruddle [97,
p. 186-90]. Implementing this view of the
relationship between central place theory
and service development planning
proved to be impossible without the
development of location-allocation model-
ing methods.
LOCATION-ALLOCATION MODELS
Location-allocation models were seen
by some as operational models for meet-
ing these tasks, and their use in India,
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THEORY 99
Latin America, and Africa preceded the
recognition of their logical congruence
with central place theory by location the-
orists [11;61;87;114]. It was argued that
location-allocation models provided infor-
mation that aided locational decision
making for many development activities
[9;28;31;32;46]. The adoption of location-
allocation models [101] took place on a
project by project basis first in India
[9;31;85;100] then in Africa [46] and in
Latin America [26;28].
By allowing decision makers to be
actors whose objectives and values were
inputs to the model, significant progress
was made in developing practical tools
for making locational decisions. What
was taken from theory was the central
place logic that urban service systems
represented an adaptation of the goals of
service providers-public or private-to
the needs of local populations. Rejected
was the adoption of any particular spatial
pattern of activities to accomplish this or
any particular objective function to be
optimized. Discussions of different inter-
pretations of central place theory such as
that of Saey [103] were simply irrelevant.
Instead, "decision makers" were invited
to state their goals and objectives, the
geographical environment was captured
in a geo-coded information system, and
the spatial pattern that best met their
objectives was computed.
The general practice of making loca-
tion decisions in developing countries
remained untouched by these develop-
ments. The major international organiza-
tions involved with development either
explicitly rejected or ignored formal facil-
ity location models in favor of more tradi-
tional, subjective, graphical approaches.
Each international agency has described
its experiences in facility location method
and practice: UNESCO [44]; USAID
[95;96;97]; WHO [60]; WORLD BANK
[38].
Early applications of location-allo-
cation models searched for location patt-
erns that were optimum with respect to
defined criteria. Later, researchers began
to compare the results from such models
100 ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY
with the existing system of locations,
arguing that a comparison of the two was
a test of the locational efficiency of the
decision process with respect to the crite-
ria optimized in the model. This new area
of locational modeling, described else-
where by Ghosh and Rushton [34, Ch.],
was designed to answer questions such as
how to:
(1) find a set of locations that are optimal
with respect to predefined objectives;
(2) compare the performance of real
geographical systems with estimates
made for their normative counterparts.
(3) compute an optimal set of new loca-
tions to add to the existing set;
(4) assess the benefits and the costs of any
constraints on location decisions that are
present in real-life decisions;
(5) evaluate the quality of past (recent)
location decisions;
(6) investigate alternative decision mak-
ing principles and to illustrate, by simula-
tion, the alternative location systems that
would develop if these principles are
employed;
These application areas illustrate pro-
gression in the use of these models from
normative modeling in question (1) to the
modeling of decision making behavior in
question (5). What is interesting about
applications (5) and (6) is that they are
used to identify inefficiencies in the deci-
sion making process and to validate im-
proved methods of making decisions.
Modeling in such a context is an aid to
decision making rather than a replace-
ment of the decision maker as in applica-
tions (1) and (3).
CASE STUDY: EFFECT OF A REGIONAL
CONSTRAINT ON THE LOCATIONAL
EFFICIENCY OF DECISIONS
In 1972, the Central Ministry of Health
in India implemented a program to make
primary health care more accessible to
rural areas. Stating that its goal was to
bring the services of "primary health
units" within convenient reach of rural
populations, it set a goal of having one
primary health unit for approximately
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every 15,000 people. In the state of Kar-
nataka, in South India, the Directorate of
Health interpreted this to mean that they
should divide each taluka within each
district in their state into small regions
which they called "population blocks."
These areas contained approximately
15,000 people each and were defined by
administrators who were reasonably famil-
iar with the local territory. They were
asked to define these areas so that each
would focus on a center linked by good
transport facilities to the surrounding vil-
lages. After approving these regions in
1972, the state health planning unit ap-
proved the establishment of new primary
health units only in "vacant population
blocks" in which government health ser-
vices did not already exist.
In one district in Karnataka (Bellary
District, with a population of 1,122,920 in
1971), the effect of implementing this pol-
icy on geographical accessibility to health
services was investigated. Shortest road
distances between all 600 settlements in
the district were computed using a shor-
test path algorithm. The vertex-substitu-
tion, heuristic, location-allocation algo-
rithm designed by Teitz and Bart [117]
was used to evaluate recent clinic location
decisions. Without any reference to the
population blocks, the algorithm
searched for locations where the reduc-
tion in person kilometers was greatest and
compared this with the person distances
saved in the locations actually selected.
Results showed that recent location deci-
sions saved a smaller and smaller percent
of the potential savings available. The
five primary health units which opened in
the area from 1976 to 1979 realized 77
percent of the potential distance savings
of five optimal locations, whereas the
seven units opened between 1979 and
1981 realized only 62 percent of the
potential savings available in the seven
optimally located sites.
In 1981 only 15 of the 67 population
blocks in Bellary District were without a
primary health unit, and so the question in
the District Health Office appeared to be
the relatively simple one of where new
 LOCATION
clinics should be located within the va-
cant population blocks so that accessibil-
ity would be most improved. By insisting
on the use of "blocks," however, the
general access to primary health services
is affected. The research question then
becomes: What is the cost of insisting that
these health units be located in the vacant
blocks, rather than wherever in the dis-
trict they would most increase geogra-
phical accessibility to the rural popula-
tion? The same location-allocation model
was used to identify, in sequence, 15
places which, if added to the 55 existing
places, would most reduce the distance
the closest place offering government
supported health services for the rural
population. Known in the location-allo-
cation literature as the "add principle,"
this was applied under two different con-
ditions. In the first case, all places were
considered by the algorithm to be eligi-
ble. No requirement about locating in
vacant population blocks was imposed.
The top line in Figure 1 shows the reduc-
tion in distances from health centers that
would occur if each of the 15 identified
places were to be added to the system. In
the second case, the algorithm was con-
strained in the same way that the state
government constrained the decisions of
the local health planners. In this case, only
places in vacant population blocks were
eligible. From these eligible locations, the
algorithm selected, sequentially, the loca-
tions that would give the greatest reduc-
tion in person-distances to the nearest
health facility site. The bottom line, Fig-
ure 1, shows the reductions in total dis-
tance that are possible when locations are
chosen, subject to this locational require-
ment.
The loss in potential improvement
caused by the constraint generally in-
creases as the number of places increases,
Figure 2. Some vacant blocks have popu-
lations that are well-located with respect
to health units in adjacent blocks. Still
other population blocks, which already
have health units, have substantial popu-
lations that are geographically inaccessi-
ble to those health units and to other units
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THEORY 101
in neighboring areas (Figure 3). As fewer
"vacant population blocks" remain, these
analyses show that it will become more
and more difficult for the health authori-
ties to find locations that significantly
improve the geographical accessibility of
the population to health care. Thus, the
cost of the constraint will increase, the
longer it is allowed to remain. Indeed, in
this analysis, the greatest reductions in
distances to nearest health center for pla-
ces selected from vacant population
blocks (Figure 2) was achieved when
three places out of the 15 were selected
tofrom one block and two from another.
Thus, even after this simulation, three
vacant population blocks would have
remained. The results shown in Figure 1
are thus underestimates of the extent of
the loss in efficiency caused by the govern-
ment's constraint.
In the face of evidence that this ap-
proach of designating population blocks
and using them in the decision making
process forces the government to make
less than optimal decisions: Why would a
government constrain local decision-
makers in this way? Four possible expla-
nations are offered here:
(1) The higher authority-in this case the
State Ministry of Health-believes that
the device of the population block is an
aid to good locational decision making in
that it forces geographical dispersion of
the health facility sites. A related study by
Krishnamurthi [63] showed that a coordi-
nated set of 65 locations selected from the
65 population blocks in Bellary District
could have achieved 95 percent efficiency
in geographical accessibility in compari-
son with 65 locations optimally selected
with respect to the region as a whole. This
result shows that it was possible to de-
velop a relatively efficient set of locations
with this constraint providing that the
overall pattern of sites selected was coor-
dinated. This study shows, however, that
when some locations have already been
selected that are sub-optimal with respect
to their local areas, the regional constraint
prevents the selection of locations that
would be significantly more accessible to
 102 ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY

110,000

90,000

co

.@ 70,000 -
E
0

all places
o Pare available
ffi 50,000

only places in vacant

population blocks are
eligible

30,000 , , ,
55 60 65 70
Number of Centers

Fig. 1. Application of the Vertex Substitution Algorithm to Identify Fifteen New Primary Health Units in
Bellary District, India

120 -
_ _

100 -

80-

60 -

0 S
-J 40 0 0 0.
a) ~~0 0
a 20-

00

55 60 65 70

Number of Centers
Fig. 2. Percent Loss in Efficiency Caused by the Original Constraint

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 LOCATION THEORY 103

0~ ~~> 0
C) 0~~~0
/ Zo Eto~d~oO / (
0 0~~~~~~~ 00>0 C

0 8& 0\90~~0 ~li~~ ' /0 >0)o

o 00? %q on
C, Z
0 0 9 0C
8 g '
0~ > 0 tX / Show except f or~arge Pc
0,0-0 ( ,ONaP 0 >000>
0 O 0 (O O> /1_P

\0 ~ 0 o,000

ilotneters

Q Location Selected by
the Algoritlom

>~~~ ~~5 ~a. Population of Places Proportional to Areas

/ 0 ~~~~~~~~~~of Circles; Boundaries of Population Blocks
T ~~~Shown except for Large Places

C. b. Algorithm Selections from All Eligihle

K ilometers Places

c. Algorithm Selections from

- -Center Serving Only Itself tion Blocks

Fig. 3. Effect of a Regional Constraint on Locational Decision-Making

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 104 ECONOMic GEOGRAPHY

the population. Locational decision mak- health planners that they believed they
ing will be particularly improved when could ask for a change in the long-stand-
the higher authority cannot ensure that ing state policy of sending nominations
local decision makers will not make loca- for new health centers only from vacant
tion decisions that leave large rural popu- population blocks.
lations at large distances from sources of The District Health Officer told us in
health care. If such poor decisions are a 1982 that he was being asked to nominate
possibility, use of the location constraint five more locations for new primary
will ensure that the result will be better health units. We sent him a copy of one of
than if the constraint were absent. our analyses in which we had computed
Though not the best locations, they are the best five locations which, if added to
better than the worst decisions that could the current 59, would most increase accessi-
be made if the constraint were not there. bility of people to primary health facili-
In this explanation, decision makers hope ties. During a return visit in 1987, the new
that by restricting the choice to a well- Health Officer told me that the five we
defined set of alternatives, a better deci- had suggested in 1982 had been adopted
sion will be made. by the government, and health units had
(2) Use of the population blocks validates been opened in these locations. I do not
the decision making process. A file in the know at this time how successful they
district health offices in Bellary District have been in improving people's health in
describing the nomination process for the area.
one primary health unit, for example, This is a brief description of only one of
concluded a presentation of facts about a many experiences I have had in India
village with a note that the village being since 1971 when I first worked with an
nominated was in a "vacant block." Indian Ministry of Agriculture team on
(3) Use of the population blocks validates "Rural Services Planning." I have often
the process of decision making in that been surprised at how frequently the
villages requesting a primary health unit Indian Government bureaucracy has de-
for their village can be denied on the veloped sensitive measures of geographi-
grounds that a facility is already located cal access to services that were better at
in their population block. From corres- the time than those used in academic
pondence we found in the files of the geography. Tewari and Jena [118], for
district health office, it appeared that vil-example, describe many of the rules de-
lages found this to be an acceptable veloped by the Indian Ministry of Educa-
explanation for receiving a government tion to ensure that secondary schools are
rejection of their request. located well. While visiting the offices of
(4) A final possible explanation is that the the Deputy Commissioner of Bellary Dis-
population blocks are needed as a valid trict in South India in March, 1980, I
reporting mechanism by the state to the noticed that he had selected voting sta-
Central Indian Ministry of Health when, tions for the district recently. His descrip-
periodically, it asks states to report the tion for each polling station included
"proportion of the population blocks that information on the "total number of vot-
do not yet have a health unit." ers assigned," the "maximum distance
The reaction of the state's senior health that voters will have to travel to reach the
planner to the results of the computer polling station," and "whether for all
simulation that showed the difficulties of voters or men only or women only." On
selecting good locations from among the the particular notice I examined, all vot-
remaining 15 vacant population blocks ing stations were "within 2 kilometers."
was that, if this were known locally and Clearly, the deputy commissioner was
reported to the state, the requirement thinking of a location set-covering model
would be changed. We found no evi- [18].
dence, however, in talking to the local

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 LOCATION
LOCATION-ALLOCATION MODELS IN
SERVICE DEVELOPMENT PLANNING
Methods to improve access to services
in developed countries typically are short
term in scope and involve transport re-
lated changes [78;81]; whereas, in devel-
oping countries, methods used are typi-
cally long term in scope and involve
changes in locations of services. Models
based on service development theory
attempt to quantify the relationship be-
tween specific services at specific loca-
tions and their effects on the production
and consumption system. The theory de-
scribes how the needs of suppliers and
consumers are reconciled within variable
geographical environments, how this recon-
ciliation is possible within different social-
political conditions, and how some of
these relationships might be expected to
change if the geographical organization
of services is changed. I believe that these
models have, within the past five years,
begun to meet these conditions. Service
development theory is, therefore, a the-
ory about "models in use" rather than a
theory about behavior in the pre-model
age. It is a theory of action rather than a
theory about action [119, p. 24]. It is a
model of the process of reconciling the
needs of consumers and suppliers. The
remainder of this article discusses some
of the problems that arise when these
models are used in this way.
RECONCILING MULTIPLE OBJECTIVES: SUPPLY-
SIDE CONSIDERATIONS
Bureaucracies set different and some-
times contradictory criteria for selecting
locations. Consider the case of the Govern-
ment of India [40, p. 10] in its discussion
of the development of health and nutri-
tion services: "The present standard of
one public health center for a block popu-
lation of 80,000 to 100,000 supported by 8
to 10 Sub-Centres, each serving a popula-
tion of 10,000 may be accepted as the
minimum norm for the fifth plan...in sub-
sequent plans, the coverage of a Sub-
centre may be reduced to a population of
4,000 to 5,000." The contradiction here is
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THEORY 105
that if surrounding each center after the
first period there are 10,000 people, then it
will normally be impossible to find loca-
tions in the second period that will have
more than one-third of 10,000 people in
the proximal areas surrounding them.
This apparently became clear to a Work-
ing Group set up by the Government of
India [41, p. 21] when, after holding hear-
ings on the problems of service system
planning, it agreed that standards should
not "be applied mechanically to any spe-
cific area," and that establishing mini-
mum threshold population and distance
standards:
should be a collective decision taken
by the concerned departments (agri-
culture, education, health, roads and
electricity) taking terrain conditions
and the settlement pattern of the area
into account. It is only when these
standards are mutually agreed upon
by the operational agencies concerned
with the provision of certain services at
the local level, that their phys-ical con-
vergence at appropriate locations could
come about, as envisaged.
Past practice for locating primary
health centers in the Karnataka case study
described above is captured succinctly in
a memo to District Health officers from
the State Directorate of Health Services
(dated 21 December, 1971):
It is proposed to establish Primary
Health Centres for every 30,000 peo-
ple instead of the present 80,000 to
150,000 population served by each Pri-
mary Health Centre. ... It is evident
that all the above institutions at or
below Taluk level cannot be converted
into Primary Health Centres but only
some of them will become Primary
Health Centres. It is now for the Dis-
trict Health and FP Officers to suggest
which are the institutions which should
be converted into Primary Health
Centres so that they may serve 30,000
population each. Care should be taken
to select proper institution that is con-
veniently situated in order that it effec-
tively serve the surrounding 30,000
population.
106 ECONoMic GEOGRAPHY
The assumption, implicit in this memo,
is that the problem of finding existing
health facility locations that can be up-
graded to the Primary Health Centre
Level can be solved by simply asking the
local administrator to select the locations.
But if, as in this case, many such centers
already existed, it will often be impossi-
ble to find new locations with natural ser-
vice areas of about 30,000 people.
Different "operational agencies" find it
difficult to agree upon minimum popula-
tion threshold and distance standards
because the consequences of not meeting
a particular set of standards affects each
of them differently. Most service agencies
consider threshold populations to be essen-
tial to offer an adequate quality of service.
Their staffing patterns are usually deter-
mined and approved in relation to these
levels. So it is not easy for them to com-
promise with colleagues from other agen-
cies and agree to service areas that are
significantly different in size. Unfortu-
nately, though theorists refer to threshold
populations as if they were population
counts, the demand for services is related
to population characteristics which often
correlate only roughly with total popula-
tion counts. This increases the difficulty of
integrating their supply in space.
In many developing countries, edicts
appear from ministries that confuse goals
with the means to achieve goals. Mehretu
[73, p. 365], for example, describes three
quantitative goals in the plan to improve
rural health in Bourkina Faso [39]: (1)
every village with a population of 730 and
over will be assigned one Poste de Sante
Primaire (primary health post (PHP)); (2)
every rural household should have access
to a health facility within a maximum of
five kilometers; and (3) the allocations of
existing health centers will be retained.
No method is suggested for reconciling
these multiple objectives-they are sim-
ply regarded as additive criteria. Con-
sider, however, this interpretation of their
problem: for increasing numbers of loca-
tions (p), find the p-locations that minim-
ize average distance to the closest place
subject to the constraint that no village is
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farther than five km. from a PHP and that
existing health centers remain. The crite-
ria of minimizing average distance should
generally lead to the selection of places
with the larger local populations. This,
presumably, would be the goal of health
planners attempting to apply these crite-
ria in local areas. Mehretu [73, p. 371]
attempted to implement these objectives
literally and separately within the con-
straints of small areas previously defined
by a grouping algorithm. Although his
philosophy of meeting coverage (equity)
criteria first before addressing efficiency
criteria will appeal to many, the crude
allocation method he employed preemp-
ted locations that represented the best
compromise between equity and effi-
ciency with limited resources. As the
number of facilities increases, it is possi-
ble to select locations that simultaneously
provide efficient and equitable access to
services, providing that inefficient loca-
tions were not selected at some earlier
phase. Decision makers who readily ac-
cept the logic of Mehretu, addressing the
issue of equity first and then turning their
attention to efficiency, will not be able to
select these best compromise locations.
The problem in this case originated in a
ministry that translated its fundamental
goal of improving access with equity into
a set of specific locational criteria that
were not sufficiently abstractly defined.
The problem was compounded when
Mehretu et al. [74] failed to interpret t
problem as a multi-objective optimiza-
tion problem [98].
An alternative supply side approach to
reconciling multiple objectives in loca-
tion selection is illustrated by the typical
practise of the World Bank. Its staff
appraisal reports of development pro-
jects involving multiple locations typi-
cally include sophisticated analyses of the
costs and benefits at the locations pro-
posed by the country applying for the
loan. Analyses to determine comparative
rates of return typically are not con-
ducted for alternative loeotionn in order
to identify the locations for which the rate
of return would be maximized. Yet the
 LOCATION THEORY 107

Bank is usually familiar placements of withvaccine supplies and tim-

similar in
structure investments that have been ing their delivery to primary health cen-
made in other areas, and data usually exist ters in India to determine improved cov-
on their performance in different loca- erage. Working in a region of Honduras,
tions. Thus, it should be possible to pre- Moore and ReVelle [76] determined the
dict the rate of return for new locations number of health facilities and their loca-
from audited rates of return of past tions in a hierarchy of services so that the
investments. As in any market site evalua- population which has access to compo-
tion study, it would be possible to make nents of service is maximized within a
past rate of return the dependent variable total budget available for investment in
and to find the functional relationship facilities. In a rare attempt to reconcile
with predictor variables describing the provider and user needs, Tien and El-Tell
characteristics of the area and its relation- [120] computed a hierarchical pattern of
ship to other providers in the system. primary health facilities to enhance both
From such an equation, calibrated on the accessibility to health services and the
past data of investments, a predictive availability of physician-provided servi-
equation could be calibrated to predict ces in Jordan. They incorporated into the
rates of returns at alternative locations. objective function the fact that physicians
Nichols [79] has developed a predictive must be able to reach the primary health
model of rural branch bank loans and facilities conveniently from their base in
deposits in an Indian district based on the the larger places.
records of branches that have been
opened in the last ten years. The model RECONCILING MULTIPLE OBJECTIVES:
then predicts the use of branch banks at
DEMAND SIDE CONSIDERATIONS
alternative locations. Ghosh and McLaff-
erty [33, p. 61-88] have reviewed a num- When improvements in access to par-
ber of U.S. studies with a similar purpose. ticular urban services are made, what will
Location-allocation models can be be the likely benefits to the agricultural
used to simulate the operation of complex productivity and human welfare of an
service systems and to test the relative area? What will be the expected increase
efficacy of alternative interventions by in utilization of services, such as educa-
service suppliers. Such research, which tion and health, if their geographical
investigates the logistics of implementing accessibility to a defined rural population
service systems, requires an understand- is increased [8;125, p. 378]? Gwatkin [43]
ing of the operation of the organization in discusses the evidence that such changes
question and a willingness on its part to in utilization will lead to an improvement
alter established patterns of control. in health. The impact of changes in sup-
Eaton et al. [27] simulated the ambulance ply characteristics depends upon user
operations in the emergency medical sys- reactions to these changes.
tem of Santo Domingo before the arrival In health services, for example, before
of 50 new ambulances for the city. They suggesting changes to the existing spatial
provided the Minister of Health with per- structure of health services, we need to
formance evaluations of alternative de- know how population characteristics,
ployment patterns. past behavior patterns, or geographical
Often, service points themselves re- relationships of the village to health ser-
ceive service from elsewhere in a chain of vice providers affects the frequency and
locationally organized activities. Reid et nature of contacts in the system. Studies
al. [89] used the set-covering algorithm toin Bangladesh, for example, have shown
determine placement of medical supply that diarrhoeal treatment services from
centers in Ecuador, while Subramanyam clinics were used 50 percent more fre-
and Sekhar [115] determined improved quently by boys than by girls even though
coverage of populations by simulating incidence rates of disease requiring this

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108 ECONoMic GEOGRAPHY

treatment was similar between the sexes. TECHNICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF SOLUTIONS

This finding, together with the sharp

Until about ten years ago, it was com-
decline of use with distance from the clin-
mon for analysts to view each locational
ics, led to the decision to develop home-
criteria as requiring a particular algo-
based oral re-hydration services instead
rithm for its solution [51 ]. The pioneering
of constructing more clinics. Many stu-
work of Church and ReVelle [18], Hills-
dies have shown a sharp decline in utiliza-
man [48;49], and ReVelle and Church
tion of health services with distance from
[90], in developing the unified linear
the nearest health facility [57;88;112]. I
model, however, has shown that many
know of only one study that reached a
different objectives can be shown to be
different conclusion [2].
special cases of the p-median problem
When per capita utilization of a center
and consequently solved by any of the
is known to relate to the scale of the facil-
methods that are known to solve that
ity and its distance from the consumer,
problem [29;45;64;69;117]. Although know-
ReVelle and Church [90] show that a
ledge of this development does not ap-
function can be computed that will show
pear to have diffused widely among users
the aggregate utilization in the system as a
of location-allocation models, it does prom-
function of the scale of facilities-thus
ise to change many areas of application
allowing conclusions to be reached on the
qualitatively.
optimal scale of facilities in the system.
The unified linear model allows the
Gore [37, p. 220] has argued that "it is
analyst to provide the decision maker
impossible to predict the outcome of spa-
with information about the performance
tial policies under such conditions"; but if
of location plans with respect to many
one has carefully observed how social
alternative objectives and allows the com-
and economic interactions are function-
putation of new location plans that are
ally related to spatial arrangement, pro-
optimal with respect to a single or weigh-
viding that the causes of these relation-
ted combination of several objectives. By
ships remain unchanged, it is possible to
editing the data on distance from a can-
predict how people will interact if the
didate site so that "distances" are a weigh-
spatial organization of resources is
ted linear combination of characteristics
changed [1].
of the candidate site as well as of distance
To assess the developments that may
to it, a partial generation of solutions can
be possible through improved geogra-
be made that range from solutions that
phical access, one must be able to predict
maximize site characteristics and ignore
the probability that a person will choose
spatial accessibility to solutions that max-
to engage in an activity and select a
imize spatial accessibility and ignore site
specific location for that activity as it
characteristics [55;98, p.141]. This infor-
relates to the characteristics of the person,
mation is usually displayed in "solution
their geographical relationship to the activ-
spaces" that are computed by the location-
ity, and to any relevant characteristics of
allocation analyst for the decision maker
the activity at the location that might
[102]. After examining these spaces, deci-
affect their likelihood of choosing it. Pro-
sion makers can reformulate their objec-
babilistic discrete-choice models, widely
tives and the analyst can determine the
used in travel demand analysis and, more
locations that meet the revised objectives.
generally, in consumer choice [22;47;
The p-median curve, for example, shows
53;54], have yet to be used to determine
the number of locations that are needed
the benefits of accessibility improve-
to serve the population of an area at any
ments to rural services. Beaumont [10]
given average distance when these loca-
and Hodgson [52] have advocated the
tions have been selected to minimize the
incorporation of spatial interaction mod-
average distance of all people to their
els in location-allocation algorithms as a
closest center. Although the curve will
solution to this problem.
always be downward sloping to the right,

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 LOCATION
its precise shape will depend on the dis-
tribution of demand and the transport
structure of the particular study area. A
decision maker who knows the cost of
establishing a new center can compute
the cost/benefit ratio by comparing the
reduction in average distance (the benefit
of the additional location) with the cost of
establishing and operating the new loca-
tions. Because the p-median curve is
always convex-reflecting a decrease in
the rate of reduction of average distance
with each unit increase in the number of
centers-there is a decrease in benefits
from each additional facility as decentral-
ization takes place.
If the analyst is free to solve for differ-
ent objectives using the same algorithm,
one can expect more frequent compari-
sons of the performance of given location
patterns or plans for new services against
a wider range of objectives, as described
by Brill [13], ReVelle, Cohon, and Sho-
brys [91], and Schilling et al. [106]. Such
comparisons enable decision makers to
make better judgments about their origi-
nal choice of objectives. Fisher and Rush-
ton [32] argue that decision makers usu-
ally need this information in order to
know whether their choice of objectives
was correct. The argument is that deci-
sion makers often act "idealistically"
when they define standards of expected
service for some activity that they are
charged to provide. The phrase "no child
should have to walk more than five kilo-
meters to a middle school" is typical of
such a standard [38]. In making the stan-
dard, however, the decision maker usu-
ally has no knowledge of what it will cost
to meet the standard.
Computer-interactive planning sys-
tems are becoming the normal way for
decision makers and planners to work
together to explore alternative uses of
resources. In these systems, the process of
identifying and evaluating alternative
locational arrangements of resources is
generalized with clearly defined roles
developed for human intervention in the
process [24;36;58;59;84;93;94].
Solutions from location-allocation
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THEORY 109
models have typical characteristics that
present obstacles to their adoption in ser-
vice development planning. The solution
space for multiple location problems in-
cludes a large number of suboptimal solu-
tions that are so close in value to the
objective function value for the optimum
solution that the usual measurement er-
rors are large enough to ensure that any
one of a number of "solutions" may in fact
be optimal with respect to the objective
function. These errors include errors in
estimating demand, distance, time, or
cost relationships between places and
aggregation of data to administrative
data units [6;16;20;35;50;82]. Until an ade-
quate "theory of errors" for location-
allocation models is developed, users of
these models must exercise good judg-
ment by not rejecting sub-optimal solu-
tions prematurely-they may, in fact, be
optimal-and, more positively, by search-
ing for sub-optimal solutions that may be
optimal given the likely data errors.
An example of how different ap-
proaches to data lead to differences in
solutions to optimal location problems is
provided in Figure 4 where locations
were selected for 27 primary health units
to add to the seven hospitals in a district in
South India. The criterion used was to
minimize average distance of people to
their closest provider of health care. The
analysis in Figure 4a used distances be-
tween places defined as shortest paths on
the road network. Results of the analysis
in Figure 4b used distances defined as
euclidean distances computed from Car-
tesian coordinates. Differences between
the two, shown in Figure 4c, show that 14
of the 27 locations are the same in the two
analyses, but that 13 locations are differ-
ent. These differences are local differen-
ces in most cases, though, in one case, a
regional shift from the central to the east-
ern part of the study area is apparent.
Which distances are most representative
of the problem context is generally
thought to depend on the length of the
trip. Unless strong physical boundaries
restricting movement are present, local
journeys, particularly those on foot or
110 ECONOMic GEOGRAPHY

C 0 >8 > S ~~~~~~~~~ ~ ~ ~~Kilometers /

+ -Unserved Places

< IAY 8 4 -Center Serving Only Itself

m -Fixed Centers (hospitals)

+ -Unserved Places

/iw -& / * -Center Serving Only Itself

A -Fixed Centers (hospitals)

a. Distances defined as shortest paths on

road network

b. Distances defined by euclidean metric

+ c. Differences between the two solutions

?0df + X

* +~~~~~~~~
0~~~~~~~~~~~ C.

t _
v D l_~~~~ Kilometers
O~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 13 20 30

Ca ~ ~~~~~ D + +
+ Centers Selected With:
+ + shortestpath distances
+euclidean metric distances
8 centers in both solutions

Fig. 4. Sensitivity of Optimal Locational Solutions to Alternative Definitions of Distances Between Places

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 LOCATION THEORY 111

wagon, are generally best represented by argued that differences between the per-
Euclidean distances. Applications of loca- formance of the locations chosen and the
tion models do not generally make these performance shown by location-alloca-
distinctions. tion analyses to be possible can support a
conclusion that decision makers were
MEASURING LOCATIONAL EFFICIENCY unable to identify the optimal locations or
that they ignored or gave inappropriate
A theory of service development must weights to the criteria they were expected
be based on measures that tell when loca- to use.
tion decisions meet development objec- Equity considerations require that mea-
tives and when they do not. The standard sures of access be made separately for
measurement tool has been the geogra- different social and economic groups.
phical variance in the ratio of inputs to However, such measures of access are
demand-doctors or hospital beds per often directly interpreted as a measure of
1,000 people, for example [57]-but the the decision makers intent to favor or to
measure is poorly correlated with the be biased against the group in question.
direct measures of accessibility that are McLafferty [71] and McLafferty and
computed in location-allocation models. Ghosh [72] used location-allocation mod-
Evaluating efficiency requires answer- els to show that in some environments it is
ing questions about the actual perfor- impossible to locate some services so that
mance of the system in achieving its goals they do not favor a particular group.
in comparison with levels of performance Instead of following traditional ap-
that could have been achieved with the proaches which correlate social charac-
same resources distributed differently. teristics and relative access levels-a mean-
Decision makers will often want to esti- ingless statistic-they show how these
mate the savings in resources they would models can be used to compute a "refer-
have made if they had produced the same ence distribution" describing the range of
level of services from fewer resources social benefit distributions that are possi-
optimally located, or to estimate the addi- ble given the constraints of the environ-
tional services that could have been pro- mental context. The extent to which the
duced with the same amount of resources behaviors meet particular development
optimally located. Assuming that deci- objectives can then be judged by compar-
sion makers are efficient in combining ing actual behaviors with these reference
inputs to produce outputs at any site, distributions.
locational efficiency focuses on the ques- Since it is difficult to study the process
tion of whether the selection of locations of decision making, McFadden [70] has
is the best. They might be interested in argued that performance is often mea-
the number of better alternatives that sured by examining the outcomes of the
were rejected, in whether reasonable deci- decisions, with the presumption that
sion making procedures, if followed, when decision makers act as if they
would have performed better than the optimize a given criteria or as if they fol-
alternatives selected, and in the level of lowed a given decision rule, an impartial
output which similar decision makers observer can conclude that they follow an
had achieved elsewhere. The argument implicit choice criterion and that future
for using "best practise" as the measure of behavior might, therefore, be forecast by
efficiency is that the theoretical ideal of that decision rule. These are standards
selecting the optimal combination of loca- against which decisions should be evalu-
tions may be unrealistic. As Farrell ob- ated. Although the ratio of the perfor-
served [30, p. 255], "it is far better to mance on the objective function of the
compare performances with the best actu- actual distribution to the optimal distri-
ally achieved than with some unattaina- bution is the common measure of loca-
ble ideal." Tewari and Jena [30] have tional efficiency, the alternative measures

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112 ECONoMic GEOGRAPHY

described above illustrate the scope for a Different groups have different powers,
richer evaluation of alternatives than is and it may well be that forms of political
currently found. participation do not permit such an open
and equal form of participatory decision
SOCIAL AND POLITICAL PARTICIPATION IN making as implied above. It is described
LOCATION ANALYSES here as an ideal toward which decision
If territories are to be organized to making could move as administrative
meet the needs of local people, they need structures and their relationships to popu-
to participate fully in plan development. lar participation evolve.
New technical possibilities are becoming Altering the spatial organization of fa-
available which allow a fuller, more open cilities changes the constraints within
participation than has been possible in the which people act and enables them to act
past [24]. One method involves the direct in new ways. Social and political struc-
comparison of "solutions" by representa- tures, through their power and control
tives of user groups. Askew [7] suggests over individuals, facilitate or impede at-
the use of concordance analysis for this tempts by people to develop their region.
purpose. Logan [68], for example, has recently
Other methods involve the determina- used a location-allocation model to show
tion of the objectives of the participants how a plan in Sierra Leone to distribute
and their commitment to equitable dis- rural health care facilities using the struc-
tribution of the benefits of development. ture of the existing administrative system
These objectives can be elicited indi- is one in which people are 37 percent
rectly by asking representatives of differ- farther from facilities than in an optimal
ent groups to evaluate alternative sets of plan determined by the model. As Brom-
locations identified by prior analyses, or ley [14] has described, the reality in many
the objectives can be elicited directly developing countries is that decision
using preference elicitation techniques. making processes are often controlled by
Locations are then identified that are interest groups beholden to small elite
optimal with respect to the expressed groups and to outside sources of finance
preferences. Depending upon the com- to which these countries frequently turn
position of the groups whose objectives for the capital needed for investments in
have been elicited, it may be necessary to infrastructure.
involve suppliers of the service in separ- The idea that regional analysis might
ate analyses to determine the viability of be for the purpose of informing decision
the locations selected for providing a makers of options rather than for making
satisfactory level of service. Von Winter- decisions is an important idea and de-
feldt and Edwards [124, p. 260-65] illus- serves development. Evaluation of alter-
trate this approach for single location native, feasible development projects
selection, but their multi-attribute utility should involve a forecast of expected
approach has not yet been adapted for outcomes under alternative assumptions
the multiple-location case in a develop- about the value of any of the factors that
ment context. Unlike developed coun- may affect these outcomes. These fore-
tries where the ideas of the Swedish time- casts should identify the people and pla-
space school have been rapidly adopted ces that stand to gain from the project and
and extended [65;81, p. 360], I know of no any groups or places that will be adver-
example of a developing country where sely affected by the project. Considering
norms for spatial accessibility have been the paucity of data, the speed with which
determined through a social, participa- conditions change, and the changing
tory process for different social groups priorities of decision makers, regional
and where the accessibility of villages analysis methods might be more useful if
and social groups have been systemati- they are designed for decision-support
cally assessed with respect to these norms.capability.

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 LOCATION THEORY 113

Political problems of reconciling mul- agree upon the terms of an exchange, and
tiple objectives often arise. It is common mechanisms to ensure that both parties to
for the needs of people served by tradi- a transaction perform their contractual
tionally weak sectors of an economy, duties.
such as health, to be ignored. In 1983, for
example, I interviewed one of the twelve
EFFECT OF MODEL USE ON THE LOCUS OF
regional ministers of health in Bolivia
DECISION MAKING
about the process of distributing health
resources in his region. I was struck, upon The development potential of alterna-
entering his office, by the large map on tive courses of action suggested by any
the wall behind his desk showing the geo- model are evaluated by the five groups
graphical distribution of primary health who participate in what Moos and Dear
resources in his region. After acknowl- [77] call "the dialect of control"-the pol-
edging the gross disparity in resource iticians, bureaucrats, interest groups, and
allocation per capita between the Indian influential and ordinary citizens. For
communities on the Alto Plano and the these groups, the challenge is to agree
Ladino communities farther east, he said upon interesting criteria for the model to
that his greatest achievement recently explore. If they do agree to explore the
was to persuade the government to agree implications of given criteria, the model
to a moratorium on the construction of estimates the likely development impacts
new primary health facilities. He said that of alternative actions and their distribu-
the Minister of Public Works, the sector tion among socioeconomic groups. Thus,
that actually constructed the facilities, the model logically connects desired ends
had been making the location decisions and proposed actions through knowledge
and had been making them without any of social and economic relationships in
consultation with his ministry. He had, he specific environmental conditions [121, p.
said, been less successful in persuading 280].
the central government to prevent Amer- The detailed spatial accounting system
ican church groups from constructing generated by a location-allocation model
health facilities in locations of their choos- is information that has to be reckoned
ing. It was he who had to find and deploy with in the political process of resource
scarce manpower resources after the allocation. So long as the ledger is blank,
church group had built the clinics. politicians have the opportunity to vie
In such an environment, location-alloca- with one another to bring the spoils back
tion models are unlikely to be used to plan to their constituents, but with the ac-
new facilities. Instead, they can be used counts open and with enough detail to
to measure the unequal degree of access count the costs and returns for alternative
to primary health services between social locations, politicians have to pause before
groups andt to compare access to recentlythey intervene to counter the bureaucrats'
opened facilities with access to other recommendations. Thus, control over the
unselected locations identified by the allocation of resources for services typi-
model. There is a cost to transactions that cally shifts from politicians to bureau-
occur between geographically separated crats when facility location models are
points, and this cost is not adequately used. When bureaucrats have superior
captured by the transport cost between technical knowledge about the produc-
the places. Reducing these transaction tion system, the politician, as discussed
costs is a large part of spatial develop- by Moos and Dear [77, p. 247], has a
ment planning. According to North [80], tendency to defer, since superior knowl-
the key to this reduction lies in develop- edge and information can be passed on
ing instruments to measure the attributes by the bureaucrat to the population at
of the goods or services exchanged, an large and can be used to undermine their
exchange process through which parties support for politicians where their deci-

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114 ECONOMic GEOGRAPHY
sions appear to be arbitrary. In a similar
way, control by interest groups over the
service resource allocation process can be
tempered by information from the mod-
els. The interests of the five groups are
not, of course, identical, so studying how
differences are resolved in relation to
information from the model is an impor-
tant task that has hardly begun.
Access to the spatial accounting infor-
mation provided by the models is also
likely to change the balance of control
from centralized to decentralized deci-
sion making. Although decentralization
often leads to increases in corruption [12,
p. 35], the presence of spatial accounting
information from the model serves to
lessen the likelihood that the official's dis-
cretion will lead, as a result of bribes, to
poor location decisions.
Finally, model information will encour-
age making decisions according to the
same set of rules without these rules being
clumsy adaptations to local conditions, as
inevitably occurs when the rules are
made at the center. Even the efficacy of
simple rules for decision making can be
checked by the model [83]. In this way,
use of these models could become a part
of "adaptive development administra-
tion" [12, p. 43; 62] which focuses on the
adaptation of plans to local conditions
and to the learning experience of admin-
istrators as development projects unfold.
DEVELOPMENT-NOT BY SPATIAL FORM
ALONE
Altering spatial form alone will not, of
course, induce development. Historical
forces that led to the existing geographi-
cal pattern of activities must also be
altered [15;111]. These historical forces
are the decision making bodies them-
selves and the administrative structures
within which they work [17]. By focusing
on pattern as process instead of on the
change mechanisms that create the pat-
terns, some regional planning approaches
neglect these critical mechanisms of
change. Yet, it is these change mecha-
nisms that must be influenced and manipu-
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lated in the planning process [113]. Un-
less planning addresses these forces,
merely changing form will not promote
development. If doctors are not trained
to practice in typical rural conditions,
opening rural health centers that are opti-
mally located will not lead to improve-
ments in rural health [128]. If people
bypass pharmacies to receive their drugs,
an optimal location pattern of pharma-
cies will not improve health [122;123]. If
the standard of care offered by govern-
ment-provided health clinics is perceived
to be low, their optimal location will not
solve the problem of low use-levels [5].
Some economic anthropologists and
geographers argue, moreover, that given
the social structure of many developing
countries with many social elites located
in towns, to develop urban-rural connec-
tions by merely strengthening the existing
urban system is to strengthen the ability
of urban groups to exploit rural popula-
tions [15;105].
CONCLUSIONS
There is irony in that the same theory,
central place theory, that was unable orig-
inally to provide a detailed guide to loca-
tional decision making for service devel-
opment planning must now, if it still
aspires to empirical validity, describe the
way in which decision makers use models
to solve their locational planning prob-
lems. So location theory must change, but
in what way?
As normative theory-its use in service
development planning-it must be capa-
ble of finding the spatial organizations
and spatial interventions that are opti-
mum within the cultural, social, political,
and economic context of the society in
question. Developing this theory will obvi-
ously not be easy, and the results of
empirical research will be a primary
input to this process. If we knew, for
example, how behavior changed as spa-
tial structure changed, we would know
how to define a structure that would
optimize behavior. Such questions have
not been asked in development studies.
 LOCATION
Instead, the few studies to date that link
changes in the spatial availability of ser-
vices to development do so only by estab-
lishing broad correlations between the
two [126;127], rather than by attempting
the more difficult task of partitioning the
components of change in development
that can be ascribed to improvements in
availability and those that would have
occurred through factors unrelated to
service availability.
Since normative theory must, to some
degree, wait for further development of
positive theory-which is quite undeve-
loped on this subject at this time [110;
111]-how can interventions be made in
service development planning? Despite
many unsolved problems in facility loca-
tion modeling, the models are developed
sufficiently to support an improved pro-
cess of locational decision making. Con-
sequently, we argue for an approach for
stimulating rural development using a
decision-support system based on a loca-
tion-allocation analysis system which is
capable of evaluating current levels of
locational efficiency, including the effec-
tiveness of recent location decisions and
generating alternative systems of services
that are consistent with the objectives of
decision makers and with the needs of a
rural development strategy to promote
growth with equity.
The state of any complex system in the
future is not known, of course, from cur-
rent changes in its structure. Difficult
questions remain. How, within the con-
straints set by macro policy considera-
tions, are the behavioral strategies of
suppliers and consumers to be reconciled
within the dynamic conditions of rural
development [21;66;67]? How do the
dynamics of system change lead to set-
tlement structures with different degrees
of spatial optimality [3;4;25]?
As positive theory, a new location the-
ory will have to explain how decision
making about services takes place in the
complex social and economic contexts in
which service development planning
takes place. A key problem in anticipat-
ing effects of spatial reorganization of
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THEORY 115
activities is determining whether the new
patterns of interactions that are engen-
dered will reinforce or undermine exist-
ing social relations in space. There is the
possibility that social relations may be
transformed by the new patterns of inter-
actions, and that the former mutual depend-
ence of social structure and interaction
patterns will be destroyed. Skinner [110]
presents evidence to support his argu-
ment that the spatial organization of field
administration in nineteenth century
China was designed in the less developed
periphery of the region to extend the
government's rule in tribal areas and to
provide a training ground for beginning
administrators so that the more successful
would have a career ladder to the more
difficult posts in the economically deve-
loped core of the region where the chief
task was to manage the political opposi-
tion to the government by the merchant
class.
I reject the popular regional develop-
ment theme expressed succinctly by Gore
[37, p. 216] that "the only changes in the
spatial pattern of 'development' which it
is possible to achieve through spatial pol-
icies are spatial redistributions" This is
not a zero-sum game as Gore asserts. The
relationships that are manipulated when
the same amount of available resources
for development are distributed in a
more efficient geographical pattern are
not mere "contingent relationships" [37,
p. 217] but are relationships that influence
the amount of development that takes
place. Spatial redistributive policies that
change the number of people, and the
types of people who have access to a
package of inputs and social services that
are conducive to development, change
the development path of the country.
Some countries have recognized this and
have continued to develop and imple-
ment spatially specific intervention poli-
cies and have benefited from this fact.
Others will continue to heed those who
urge macro changes in the economy as
the only way to effect substantial overall
"development." I do not agree with Gore
[37, p. 224] that "the idea that desirable
116 ECONoMic GEOGRAPHY
objectives may be achieved through
manipulating spatial structure or spatial
system is seen as fanciful." The task of the
location theorist in development plan-
ning is to develop theory to guide spatial
intervention so that true development
objectives are achieved. The objective of
this theory is no longer some abstract min-
imization of interaction costs but the
achievement of some behavioral outcome
through spatial interventions.
Is this a return to the "spatial separatist
theme"? No, it is constructed on the pre-
mise that spatial changes divorced from
other necessary changes cannot bring
development to a region. Nevertheless, it
argues that in any development effort, as
Schaefer [104, p. 249] noted:
we must try to explore what else would
be different in the future if, all things
being equal, the spatial arrangements
in the present were different from
what they actually are.
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