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10 Trends Shaping Migration - Web PDF
10 Trends Shaping Migration - Web PDF
SHAPING
MIGRATION
2
PEOPLE ON THE MOVE, IN EUROPE AND BEYOND
Situation end of 2016
20 million
244 million
people live outside 57 million of which were born in another
EU country
of their country of of which EU residents live outside
birth globally of their country of birth
37 million
of which
were born in a country
17.2 million outside the EU
of which
of which international refugees
under UNHCR mandate
1.9 million
of which
of which
2.7 million recognised refugees
in the EU
of which people have requested asylum in a
country applying the Geneva
Convention or national asylum law
of which
1.1 million
asylum seekers with
pending claim in the EU
40.3 million
people are internally
6.9 million
of which newly displaced
displaced as a result of in 2016
civil war, political because of
conflict or violence conflict
24.2 million
newly displaced in 2016
as a result of natural
disaster or extreme
weather
Source: United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Eurostat, European Political Strategy Centre
1
TREND 1
GLOBAL
MIGRANT POPULATION UP
BUT FLOWS REMAIN STABLE
1985-90
1990-95
1995-00
2000-05
2005-10
2010-15
2
MORE PEOPLE LIVING ABROAD, BUT Statistically, people living outside their country
of birth are counted in what is commonly
NOT MORE MOBILITY: A PARADOX? referred to as the 'stock of international
Why is the number of people living outside their country migrants' for the rest of their lives (unless
of birth growing despite stable migration flows? they return to their country of origin). This
Two completely unrelated reasons are responsible is regardless of whether they aquire the
for this: citizenship of their destination country.
1. Declining return migration: the return of regular
migrants and refugees to their country of origin As a result, the global stock of 244 million people
has become less likely. living outside their country of birth (which includes
the 57 million EU residents living outside their
2. Increasing longevity: migrants, like native
country of birth) covers recent migrants and
populations, enjoy an increasing life expectancy in
refugees, but also people such as the ethnic German
their destination countries.
Aussiedler from the 1990s, former guest workers of
the 1960s, and even people who migrated prior to
Both trends work in the same direction: In contrast to
World War II and are still alive.
earlier generations, more migrants stay for good and
live longer in destination countries.
Two concrete examples illustrate this: Henry
Kissinger, a former refugee from Nazi Germany, and
Anne Hidalgo, the Spanish-born Mayor of Paris, are
both part of this category.
Africans 52%
People move but the majority tend to stay close within Africa
to home. In fact, the pace of growth of intra-EU Europeans
mobility has been much faster than that of non-EU within Europe 66%
immigration to the EU. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Source: United Nations Population Division, Eurostat
The same holds for South-South migration flows
(across developing countries but also to rich
countries like the Gulf States and Singapore), which
are still higher than South-North movements (from
developing to developed countries.) In 2015, 90.2
million international migrants born in developing
countries were living in other countries in the Global
South, while 85.3 million born in the South lived in
countries in the Global North.1
3
TREND 2
FORCED DISPLACEMENT
SURGING IN A
FRAGILE WORLD
4
Given Europe's geographic position and reputation
as a beacon of stability, generosity and openness PROFILES OF RECENT ASYLUM
amid growing global instability, Europe is likely
SEEKERS ENTERING EUROPE
to continue to represent a source of refuge and
relief for asylum-seekers. Recent asylum-seekers are mainly young men,
aged 18-36, while the number of unaccompanied
Since 2015, EU Member States have been on the minors has increased dramatically. In 2015 and
receiving end of a large share of asylum claims. In 2014 2016, around 30% of asylum applicants in
to 2016, 48% of the world’s 6.7 million asylum-seekers the EU were children. This marked a six-fold
were registered in the EU. This warrants continued increase in the total number of child asylum
updating of EU asylum policies and proceduresm as well applicants compared to the previous six years.
as a strengthening of external borders to enable Europe These refugee children are particularly vulnerable
to better cope with sudden influxes of asylum-seekers in – another reason why irregular and uncontrolled
the future. flows need to be replaced by safe and well-
managed pathways.
93%
500,000
28%
54% 37% 33% 29% 2%
0
EU28
Russian
Federation
USA
Canada
Norway
Switzerland
Australia
Japan
5
TREND 3
CLIMATE CHANGE TO DWARF
ALL OTHER DRIVERS
OF MIGRATION
• Climate change is reshaping the map of liveable Additional research is required on the potential risks and
areas worldwide: rising sea levels, higher surface appropriate responses to environmental displacement.
temperature, and disruptions in water cycles are The current global humanitarian system, already
making crop-killing droughts and flooding rains more overstretched and underfunded at around 50% of
common, and human survival more difficult. global needs, would be difficult to extend automatically
• Between 2008 and 2016, environmental or with the same protections to those internally
disasters displaced 25.3 million people displaced by environmental disasters.
annually. In total, extreme weather conditions,
like hurricanes, floods, mudslides, forest fires and
droughts forced 196 million people to flee their Many more people internally displaced
homes – and these figures relate only to people who
were internally displaced.4
by ‘natural’ disasters than by violent
conflicts and civil wars
• In some cases, the duration of environmental
Internally displaced people, 2008-2016
displacement can be limited-less than or around
In millions
12 months-due to the short-lived nature of some
natural events; but in other cases, environmental Newly displaced due to natural disasters
Newly displaced due to violent conflicts and wars
displacement can be protracted across several years. 45
42.3
• Not all regions of the world are equally 40
36.6
affected. Coastal areas and some of the world’s 35
poorest regions, including large parts of Central and 32.3
30
Southwest Asia, the Horn of Africa, or North Africa,
are especially vulnerable. 25 24.2
22.2
20 19.1 19.2
Estimates range widely regarding future trends of 15
environmental displacement by 2050: from 25 million 16.7 11.0
10 15.0
8.1 8.6
to 1 billion people with a median of 200 million. Any 6.8 6.4 6.9
5 4.6 3.5
levels within this range would dwarf the current 2.9
levels of new refugees and internally displaced 0
persons.
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
6
Climate change places the largest burden on already vulnerable regions
high risk low risk
Note: Risk refers to climate impacts such as extreme weather, sea level rise, agricultural productivity loss.
Source: Centre for Global Development
7
TREND 4 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
SPURS MIGRATION
IN THE SHORT-TERM
• 16% of the world’s adults would move to another
country if they had the chance7: this equals roughly
700 million people. In reality, 7-9 million migrate
each year – only 1% of those who would consider
moving abroad.
People’s ability and propensity to • The socio-economic factors that can motivate
emigrate increases with rising GDP per people to seek better opportunities abroad
capita, up to a threshold – poverty, inequality, lack of infrastructure and
unemployment – are also the primary factors
1990-2000 2000-2010 limiting their mobility.
4%
Decadal emigration flow in % of
Note: GDP per capita is adjusted for price changes over time and between countries. It is expressed in constant 2011 international dollars
Source: World Bank
8
MIGRANTS INCREASINGLY FINANCE THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THEIR
HOME COUNTRIES
Emigration itself is a strategy to support Going forward, it is important to shape the regulatory
economic development in poorer countries. and market landscape in the direction of reduced
As migrants settle abroad, they send remittances hurdles, more competition, transparency and increased
– payments to family in their country of origin – use of digital technology. Mobile money-based global
which contribute to enhancing living conditions remittances are growing at a fast pace, especially in
back home. While official development aid requires East Africa and South Asia, where the proliferation
complex coordination of government agencies of smartphones has made online transfers cheaper
and policymakers, remitted money can move with and more convenient. The application of blockchain
expediency and directly reaches the recipients in need. technology is still in its infancy, but also holds great
Remittances are stable and have proven resilient to potential for overcoming the high cost of transmitting
economic downturns. money.
9
TREND 5
THE EVER-CHANGING
FACE OF MIGRATION
• Throughout history, Europeans have emigrated to • The different pathways that migrants use to come to
the rest of the world. Since the second half of the Europe – regular, irregular, smuggled or trafficked –
20th century, Europe has become a continent of also affect their legal status and integration into the
immigration. receiving country, further adding to the complexity of
• Patterns of migration from, towards, and within migration management.10
Europe have undergone significant changes
as international migration has become more Migration will remain a defining issue for the EU
globalised, mobile, connected and distant. for the years to come.
• This has resulted in a population with migrant
It is therefore pressing to try to curb irregular migration
background that is highly diverse in terms of
and instead develop well-managed legal migration
countries of origin, ethnic and religious backgrounds,
pathways so that Europe can address the challenges
cultural practices and languages – especially in the
linked to a shrinking working age population while
North, West and South of Europe.
attracting the specific skills needed in the EU’s
• Migration has also become more complex. Today, economies, and upholding its international humanitarian
migration is characterised by mixed flows and mixed responsibilities.
motives, increasingly compounded by emerging
challenges, like climate change.
• Moreover, given the limited legal pathways that are
available for economic migrants to come to Europe,
there has been a growing trend of irregular entry or
stay, and a growth in asylum applications in order to
gain entry and a legal status.
10
FOUR PHASES OF MIGRATION WITHIN AND TO EUROPE
Between the 1950s and Between the oil price Post-Cold War era From 9/11 to today
the 1974 oil price shock shock and the end of until 9/11 (2001-2017)
(1950s-1974) the Cold War (1989-2001)
(1974-1989)
Who • Guest workers, • Dependent family • Dependent family • Dependent family
mainly men members members members
• Post-colonial • Refugees • Refugees • Irregular migrants
• Refugees • Students • Refugees
• Co‑ethnics • Students
• High-skilled workers
Why • High demand for • Oil crisis halts need • Re-connection of Europe; • Surge in low-skilled
low-skilled labour as for labour recruitment, surge of East-West undocumented
part of the post-war ending guest-worker migration with no migrants entering
reconstruction migration and structured legal entry irregularly or with
• Legal labour recruitment introducing stringent pathway developed, tourist visas
organised between entry restrictions for except for privileged • Mixed flows of
state authorities new migrants co‑ethnic migration refugees and
or big companies • Legal migration • High and mid-skilled economic migrants
(manufacturing, mining) continue through migrants mostly • Emerging trend of
in the receiving countries family reunification overstaying tourist/ unaccompanied
and the sending • Political asylum student visas; growth minors
countries granted in Cold War of undocumented and
irregular migration • Rise in female
• Political asylum granted antagonism migrants as main
in Cold War antagonism • Seasonal/circular breadwinner (rather
migration to fill jobs in than through family
the lower-skilled, labour- reunification)
intensive and volatile
sectors of the economy • Targeted strategies
(agriculture, construction, to attract high skill
tourism and home care) migrants
From • Countries of origin • Family reunification • Central and Eastern • South Asia, China
where mainly Southern Europe, from Southern Europe, Europe • Afghanistan, Iraq,
Turkey and Morocco Turkey, Maghreb and • Asylum seekers from Syria
• Facilitated entry and stay South Asia Western Balkans, Algeria • Maghreb and Sub-
for returning colonial • Asylum seekers from and Chechnya Saharan Africa
settlers and nationals Central Europe and
of newly independent from Turkey • Ukraine
countries in Africa and
Asia associated with
decolonisation
Source: European Political Strategy Centre
5 million 1 million
Latin America, Carribean North America, Oceania
Top countries of origin Top countries of origin
Ecuador, Brasil USA
9 million 20 million
Non-EU Europe Mobile EU citizens
Top countries of origin Top countries of origin
Ukraine, Russia, Turkey Romania, Poland, Italy,
Portugal
10 million 12 million
North & Sub-Saharan Africa Asia, Middle East
Top countries of origin Top countries of origin
Morocco, Algeria, Tunesia, India, China, Pakistan, Syria
Nigeria
Source: Eurostat, European Political Strategy Centre
11
TREND 6 DIGITAL IS A
GAME CHANGER FOR
MIGRATION
12
Digital tools matter throughout a
DIGITAL TECHNOLOGY, A TOOL TO
migration journey
SUPPORT INTEGRATION EFFORTS
Before During Aſter
In Germany, the Federal Office for Migration and
• Shapes Facilitates • Staying connected Refugees developed, in cooperation with the
aspirations connections for with friends and
migrants, family easier than in Federal Employment Agency and the Goethe-
• Facilitates smugglers, the past
preparation Institut, the Ankommen app, which means ‘Arrive’.
authorities and • Potentially positive
service providers and negative impacts It provides translated information about basic
on integration integration services, such as an introduction to
the German language, information on asylum
Source: European Political Strategy Centre
procedures and studying, as well as on cultural
practices and values in Germany.
• The game-changing role of new digital Private actors and civil society organisations also
technologies does not end upon arrival in developed innovative, digitally-supported tools
a host country. The 2015-2016 period saw an and applications to support refugee integration in
explosion of social and technological innovations the midst of the unprecedented inflow of refugees
to address the challenges posed by large numbers and migrants in the summer 2015. Amongst
of asylum-seekers and migrants arriving in Europe. the most notable examples were those set up
In particular, digital technologies were mobilised to match newcomers with people offering spare
to help newcomers navigate local services; get rooms, like Airbnb’s ‘Open Homes’ scheme, which
them into work or training; and provide access to enabled willing local residents to offer free and
community-based housing and services.1 Authorities temporary shelter to refugees, and those like
and humanitarian organisations are also harvesting Home4Refugees, a platform to connect refugees
the wealth of online data to improve their decision- looking for rental opportunities with refugee-
making process and adopt a more anticipatory friendly landlords and homeowners.
approach to migration.12
• Yet, in a context of limited integration perspectives in
countries of destination, these digital tools also have
the potential to further slow or complicate integration
efforts by creating ‘bubbles’, that enable new arrivals
to be more virtually immersed in their community
and country of origin than with the receiving society.
13
TREND 7
MIGRATION BECOMING
BIG BUSINESS WITH
BOTTOMLESS DEMAND
• The majority of irregular migrants arrive in Europe Tackling smuggling requires a holistic approach to
with valid tourist visas or are visa-free travelers who irregular migration. Focusing on just one part of
do not leave within the typically foreseen 90-day the journey has the risk of backfiring. The spread of
period, but try to find work. maritime surveillance and rescue operations in
• For those with no access to Schengen visas, stricter the Central Mediterranean are telling in this respect.
border controls and reduced opportunities for legal What was meant as a humanitarian intervention –
migration have encouraged attempts to enter the EU bringing rescue operations closer to the shores of Libya
irregularly. to save lives – in fact made it easier and cheaper for
smugglers to organise crossings. In particular, smugglers
• More than 90% of irregular migrants reaching
started placing people on ever cheaper and more
the EU via the Mediterranean use the facilitation
unseaworthy inflatable dinghies that never had the
services of a migrant smuggling network at
prospect of reaching Europe. Their business model ran
some point during their journey.13
on the expectation that people crossing by sea would
• The spread of digital technologies has be picked up by rescue boats - either official vessels
supported the growth of an irregular migration or NGO ships- and then receive safe passage to Italian
industry, with smuggling networks using social ports.
media to advertise their services and painting a
positive picture of what are in reality high-risk,
For every 50 arrivals to Europe via the
treacherous journeys. For every fifty people arriving in
Europe via the Mediterranean, one loses their life. Mediterranean, one person died at sea in 2017
• Yet, driven by substantial demand, smuggling has, 2014 2015 2016 2017
in a very short time, become a highly lucrative Sea arrivals via the
Mediterranean 216,054 1,015,078 362,753 160,879
business – with relatively low risk for the smugglers. Dead and missing in
Criminal networks are estimated to have made the Mediterranean 3,538 3,771 5,096 3,049
a turnover of EUR 4-6 billion in 2015 alone, Proportion of
fatalities vs arrivals 1.6% 0.4% 1.4% 1.9%
helping irregular migrants and refugees to
reach Europe.14 Source: United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
• Migrant smuggling is increasingly associated with
serious human rights violations and deaths, mainly
across the Sahara, but also at sea, while smuggling Interactions between Smugglers and
networks are linked to other forms of serious and Clients via Social media
organised crime, including money laundering, drug Target Somalis & Syrians West
and human trafficking, even slavery. audience Eritreans & Iraqis Afghans Africans
Social media use
pre-departure some yes no some
too expensive,
Social media use yes yes some rather text
on route messages
Social media use
upon arrival yes yes yes yes
14
15
TREND 8
MIGRATION
CONTINUES TO BE
AN URBAN AFFAIR
• Urbanisation is a long-term accelerating trend. Today, • The difference in recent and coming years is the
54% of all people live in urban areas. This share is increased scale of migration into cities. Publicly
expected to increase to 66% by 2050. Much of the financed goods and services such as affordable
predicted urban growth will happen in developing housing, education, social services, and healthcare
regions – particularly in Africa – but Europe can also are already under pressure – especially after
expect rising levels of urbanisation, with migrants the financial crisis – and now face additional
playing an important role.15 demands from migrants and refugees.
• Today, nearly one in five migrants live in the • The nature of services needed is also
world’s top 20 largest cities. changing, with a higher demand for specialised
• Cities have always been the first points of arrival, approaches for vulnerable people, including the
transit hubs and ultimate destinations for migrants, large number of unaccompanied minors. At the same
and migrants in turn have shaped and contributed time, public authorities face additional burdens, such
enormously to cities and urban economies. as better responses and preparedness mechanisms
against radicalisation or xenophobic protests.
Born in another EU Member State Born outside of the EU Born in another EU Member State Born outside of the EU
3.0 50
2.5 40
2.0
30
1.5
20
1.0
0.5 10
0.0 0
Torrevieja (ES)
Bruxelles/Brussel (BE)
Narva (EE)
Slough (UK)
Fuengirola (ES)
Offenbach am Main (DE)
CA Val de France (FR)
London (UK)*
Leicester (UK)
Benidorm (ES)
Wien (AT)
Sindelfingen (DE)
Wolfsburg (DE)
Luton (UK)
Frankfurt am Main (DE)
London (UK)*
Paris (FR)*
Berlin (DE)
Madrid (ES)
Barcelona (ES)*
Wien (AT)
Bruxelles/Brussel (BE)
Athina (EL)*
West Midlands (UK)*
München (DE)
Hamburg (DE)
Manchester (UK)*
Lisboa (PT)*
Dublin (IE)*
Lyon (FR)
* the figure shows 15 cities (subject to data availability) in the EU28 with the highest number of foreign-
born inhabitants and the 15 cities with the highest share of foreign-born inhanbitants.
Estonia and Austria: data from 2013. Germany, France, and Slovenia: data from 2012. The Czech Republic,
Ireland, Greece, Latvia, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, Sweden and the United Kingdom: data from 2011.
Source: Eurostat
16
RESILIENT CITIES
Cities also host a wave of social innovations
The rising numbers of refugees and asylum-seekers related to improving access to information and
in Athens and Thessaloniki are part of a global trend: services for migrants and asylum seekers. In effect,
forcibly displaced populations migrating to cities. most arrive with few resources, limited host language
skills and different cultural perceptions. Employer
While the humanitarian sector is turning its focus associations, NGOs, companies, trade unions,
to adapting aid to better suit the 60% of refugees charities and religious associations have come
residing in cities around the world, too little attention together with municipal services in partnerships
is given to strategies cities themselves can take, aimed at finding efficient ways to help new arrivals
particularly given that it is their communities, access information directly, and facilitate their
services, and systems that bear the greatest burden. integration in the local communities.
In 2016, there were an estimated 59,000 refugees Source: 100 Resilient Cities
and asylum seekers in Greece. In Athens alone, 9,000
refugees and asylum-seekers rely on city services
and Athenian empathy, while Athenians themselves
struggle with a 21% Greek unemployment rate.
17
TREND 9
EUROPE’S UNMET
POTENTIAL TO ATTRACT
WORLD’S HIGHLY SKILLED
• More than ever before, human capital is the one • To minimise the negative impacts of an ageing and
resource that can propel firms and economies to shrinking population and ensure sustainable growth,
higher levels of productivity and competitiveness. European economies will need to consider attracting
Globalisation has fostered a global competition young economic migrants. Yet, only a fraction of
for talent, as knowledge economies increasingly rely migrants enter the EU for employment today;
on highly-skilled workers. more than half of legal migration flows into EU
• Already today, Europe faces a significant skills Member States are driven by family reunification or
shortage, a trend that will be compounded by a humanitarian grounds (including refugee status).
shrinking pool of university graduates between now • Compared to similar economies like the US, Canada
and 2030. In fact, half of the world’s share of 25-34 or Australia, Europe also attracts a smaller share of
year olds with university degrees will graduate in highly-skilled migrants relative to the total global
China and India, while those in the US and the EU will flow of highly-skilled migrants. In 2013, the EU was
account for just over 15%. home to only one in three high-skilled migrants, with
60% heading to North America.
By 2030, China and India will be home to
half the world’s new graduates
Share of 25-34 year olds with a tertiary degree across OECD and G20
Europe is an underachiever in the global
countries (2013, 2030) competition for talent16
2013 2030
Data for 2013
China Low High
India Oceania 2% 1% Other OECD
Oceania 7%
4% Other OECD
US
North EU15
Russian Federation America 30%
Japan 47% EU15
Brazil 47% 1%
EU+12
Indonesia 57% 1%
Korea North
Other EEA
Mexico America
Other EEA 2% 1% EU+12
United Kingdom
Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Germany (OECD)
France
Canada
Turkey
Spain
Poland
Italy
Argentina
Australia
Saudi Arabia
Others
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
(OECD) database, United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural
Organisation (UNESCO) and national statistics websites for Argentina,
China, India, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa.
18
THE EUROPEAN BLUE CARD EXPERIENCE – A DROP IN THE OCEAN
Attracting highly qualified immigrants to Europe has been
a key priority for the EU for several years. So far, it has A Drop in the Ocean: Germany Leads on
not been as successful as other comparable economies Blue Cards
in attracting the highly-educated individuals it seeks. Blue Cards Granted, 2016
Challenges to retain
19
TREND 10
PERCEPTIONS
AND FACTS MATTER
• Immigration surged on the list of top concerns • At a time when fewer people get their news from
of European citizens since 2014, peaking at the evening broadcasts and newspapers, and with many
end of 2015, at the height of the humanitarian crisis, turning to alternative online sources of information,
when 58% of Europeans said that immigration was there is risk of exaggeration, which in turn can
the most important issue facing the EU. Today, it is exacerbate anti-immigration sentiment, also by
second only to terrorism. linking migration to illegality, economic crisis, or even
• Negative sentiment was initially fuelled by the major radicalisation and terrorism.
spike in irregular arrivals, with more than 1 million
irregular migrants and asylum seekers disembarking
at Europe’s Mediterranean and Atlantic shores in Regular migration to the EU28 is rather
2015. stable...
First permits issued, 2008-2016
• While Europe may have partially regained control
over the situation today (with irregular sea arrivals For family For study For work
dropping to 360,000 in 2016 and to 160,000 2,500,000
in 2017), the perception of poorly managed
2,000,000
migration and of a limited success at
integrating migrants and refugees at national 1,500,000
and local levels persists. 1,000,000
• These issues have dominated electoral campaigns
500,000
across Europe and abroad, influencing crucial votes,
such as the UK’s referendum on Brexit, recent 0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
elections in Austria, France, Germany, the Czech
Republic, or the Netherlands, and even in the US,
Source: Eurostat
with anti-immigration parties gaining ground and
mainstream parties often jumping on the bandwagon
for more restrictive migration policies. ...But asylum applications have seen a spike
• Growing concern about immigration cannot Asylum applications in EU28 from 2008 to October 2017
only be explained by the increased numbers of
1,400,000
people migrating to Europe. Research suggests
1,200,000
that fears are often exaggerated by widespread
1,000,000
misperceptions regarding actual figures and facts. On
800,000
average, people overestimate the size of immigrant
600,000
populations living in their country, often by a wide
400,000
margin.
200,000
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2020
Most important issues of concern that the EU is facing, 2011-2017
in %
59 53 45 33 58 45 44 1. Terrorism
31 36 36 29 25 32 38 2. Immigration
26 32 26 25 21 20 18 3. Economic situation
7 4 6 11 17 16 15 5. Unemployment
Source: Eurobarometers 79 to 87
Note: Up to two priorities could be mentioned in the interview
21
Notes
1. International Organisation for Migration, 'IOM Global Migration Trends 2015 Factsheet', https://www.iom.int/news/iom-releases-global-migration-
trends-2015-factsheet
2. The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, http://www.internal-displacement.org/database
3. UNHCR, ‘Global Trends – Forced Displacement in 2016’. Based on consolidated reports from countries of asylum (departure) and countries of
origin (return).
4. International Displacement Monitoring Centre, 2017, 'Global Report on Internal Displacement', available at: http://www.internal-displacement.org/
global-report/grid2017/
5. According to the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, available at http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg2/index.
php?idp=620
6. New Zealand Green Party, 2017, available at https://www.greens.org.nz/policy/fairer-society/welcoming-more-refugees
7. International Labour Organisation calculations, based on Gallup Analytics, 2016
8. See OECD, ‘PPPs and exchange rates’, https://data.oecd.org/conversion/purchasing-power-parities-ppp.htm
9. World Bank, 2017 'Migration and Remittances' http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/992371492706371662/MigrationandDevelopmentBrief27.pdf
10. Triandafyllidou A. and R. Gropas, 2014, European Immigration: A Sourcebook, 2nd Edition, Routledge: London.
11. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, 'Connectivity for refugees' http://www.unhcr.org/connectivity-for-refugees.html
12. Migration Policy Institute, 2016 'Digital Humanitarianism: How Tech Entrepreneurs Are Supporting Refugee Integration' https://www.
migrationpolicy.org/research/digital-humanitarianism-how-tech-entrepreneurs-are-supporting-refugee-integration
13. This rough estimate of the yearly turnover of migrant smuggling was produced for the Joint Europol-Interpol Report: ‘Migrant Smuggling
Networks’ , and is based on the number of migrants who entered the EU in 2015.
14. Europol-Interpol, 2016 ‘Migrant Smuggling Networks’ https://www.europol.europa.eu/sites/default/files/publications/ep-ip_report_executive_
summary.pdf
15. UN, 2014 'World's population increasingly urban' http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/news/population/world-urbanization-prospects-2014.
html
16. See OECD, 2016 'Europe is underachieving in the global competition for talent' http://www.oecd.org/migration/europe-is-underachieving-in-the-
global-competition-for-talent.htm
17. See EU Immigration Portal, http://ec.europa.eu/immigration/bluecard/essential-information_en
18. IOM and Gallup World Poll (2015), How the World Views Migration, http://www.iom.int/files/live/sites/iom/files/pbn/docs/How-the-World-Views-
Migration-Gallup-flyer.pdf
22
Disclaimer
This publication has been prepared by the European Political
Strategy Centre. The information and views set out in this
publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily
reflect the official opinion of the European Commission.
23