TAKE HOME ASSIGNMENT eMDP- LSCM-19

Total Marks -100

Step 1:
Identify any three variables (minimum), preferably time series variable, which you think have a sound theoretical
relationship among themselves in real life (preferably some contemporary issues in Business). Identify one of them as
dependent variable(Y) and others as independent variable (X’s).
Step 2:
Collect the data pertaining to each variables relating to any country context, preferable the data and variables from your
own company, if it is allowed. The number of observation for each data set should not be less than 20 observations.
More is preferable and there is no upper limit for the data points and number of independent variables. No two
students will select the same variables and same data. You can email me the name of the variables for cross checking at
pcpadhan@xlri.ac.in
Part-I (50 marks)
Calculate the following things and interpret the result with sound theoretical logic.
a. Plot the data in a scatter form (for two variable cases) and determine what kind of curve (model) you will fit for the
data set.
b. Perform the multiple linear regression models. Obtain the intercept and slope coefficients and interpret the
regression results.
c. Apply‘t’ test and ‘F’ test to test the hypothesis of the parameters with appropriate significance level.
d. Test whether the multiple regression models suffers from multicollinearity, heteroscedastcity or autocorrelation
problem. If so solve with appropriate methods.
e. Obtain the forecasted value from the model for some fixed values of independent variable.
Part-II (50 marks)
a. Plot your data (any one variable which you are interested to forecast) against time and Determine whether your
data follows trend, cyclical, seasonal or random pattern with appropriate methods.
b. Apply all the types of uni-variate forecasting models such as Naïve models, simple average, moving averages,
double moving averages, Exponential Smoothing Methods, Holt’s and Winter’s Methods, Seasonal
Decomposition, ARIMA and SARIMA model for forecasting. Obtain the forecasted values and forecast error for
all these models. Select the best forecasting models which are suitable for your data sets and report the
forecasted values.
Please note
1. Submit the assignment including data sets in AIS https://vil.xlri.ac.in/sat_ais/ or at vikash@xlri.ac.in (in case-any error
in uploading) on or before 10-08-19mid night
2. All the estimation has to be done applying either Minitab Software or Excel Spread Sheet or any other software of
your choice.
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