DELPHI METHOD SOFTWARE

USER MANUAL

Global Technology and Operations Management 2012/2013

 1. Start the program UT.exe. The following Menu panel appears:

New

Load

Save

Enter questions

Enter answers

View results

About authors

End of program

2. Click on the green field “Enter questions”. The following panel appears:

Number
Number of
of experts
question
s

Question

The first
year of
forecasting Max.
Number of years included in forecasting deviation
 3. Fill in the fields: “Number of questions”, “Number of experts”, “Question”, “The first year of
forecasting”, “Number of years included in forecasting”, “Max. deviation”.

(EXAMPLE: One round of Delphi forecast is performed. There are 2 questions - “When will
Pay Pal service be completely available in Serbia?” and “When can we expect
implementation of digital signature in 80% of banks in Serbia?” Two experts are included in
the panel. Forecasting is performed in 2003, while the last year of forecasting is 2007.)

After filling in the necessary fields, click OK button.

(Remarks: a) The field “Number of years” is 5 in this example because the period 2003-2007
is a five-year period; b) always set “Maximum deviation” to value 20)

4. After clicking OK in the previous step, the first Menu panel appears. Click on the yellow
field “Enter answers”. Then, the following panel appears:

Expert 1

Expert 2

Round
Question

Previous
Next Previous
Next
Now enter the answers of experts. But first, choose whether the answers of experts are “X” or
“OMP” type.

(EXAMPLE: “OMP” answers to the Question 1)

Enter letters “o”, “m” and “p” for optimistic, expected and pessimistic answers, respectively. After
entering the answers of experts to Question 1, click on the field “Next question”.

New panel for Question 2, the same as for the Question 1, appears. Enter the answers to
Question 2.

(EXAMPLE: “X” answers to Question 2)

Enter letters “x” for expected answers of experts.

In our example there are two experts, two questions and one round of Delphi forecasting, so
now click OK button.
 5. After clicking OK in the previous step, the first Menu panel appears. Click on the purple
field “View results”. Then, the following panel with the solution of Question 1 appears:

Round 1 Question 1

Probability of occurance graph

Probability of
happening

Average time of Dispersion Standard

occurrence deviation
Question Round
Next Next

Previous Previous

Results of the Question 1: “When will Pay Pal service be completely available in Serbia?”:
tn = 1,5
σ2n = 0,6872
σn = 0,8290

Click on the blue field “Next question” and see the solution of Question 2.
Results of the Question 2: “When can we expect implementation of digital signature in 80% of
banks in Serbia?”:
tn = 1,0
σ2n = 1,0
σn = 1,0

Now, after seeing the results of all questions, click OK button.

6. After clicking OK in the previous step, the first Menu panel appears. For solving another
problem, start from the beginning – from the step 2. For closing the program click the red
field “End of program”. The following warning panel appears, asking “Are you sure you
want to end the program?”:

Click OK button to close the program.