‫ﺗﻣﺎر ن ﻣﺣﻠوﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻت‪-1-‬‬

‫ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ‪:1‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺟﺯءﻳﻥ ‪ 1‬ﻭ ‪ 2‬ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ ﻳﻣﻛﻥ ﻣﻌﺎﻟﺟﺔ ﻛﻝ ﻣﻧﻬﻣﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺩﺓ‪ .‬ﺗﻌﻁﻰ ﺍﻟﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﻛﻝ ﻛﺳﻭﺭ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻗﺗﻁﻊ ‪ 16‬ﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭﺍ ﺗﺫﺍﻛﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻁﺔ ‪ A‬ﺑﺣﻳﺙ‪:‬‬

‫‪ 7‬ﻣﻧﻬﻡ ﻳﺗﻭﺟﻬﻭﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻁﺔ ‪) B‬ﺑﺳﻌﺭ ‪ 50‬ﺩﻳﻧﺎﺭ ﻟﻠﺗﺫﻛﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺣﺩﺓ(‪.‬‬

‫‪ 5‬ﻣﻧﻬﻡ ﻳﺗﻭﺟﻬﻭﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻁﺔ ‪) C‬ﺑﺳﻌﺭ ‪ 60‬ﺩﻳﻧﺎﺭ ﻟﻠﺗﺫﻛﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺣﺩﺓ(‪.‬‬

‫‪ 4‬ﻣﻧﻬﻡ ﻳﺗﻭﺟﻬﻭﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻁﺔ ‪) D‬ﺑﺳﻌﺭ ‪ 75‬ﺩﻳﻧﺎﺭ ﻟﻠﺗﺫﻛﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺣﺩﺓ(‪.‬‬

‫‪ .1‬ﻧﺧﺗﺎﺭ ﻋﺷﻭﺍﺋﻳﺎ ﻭﺍﺣﺩﺍ ﻣﻥ ﻫﺅﻻء ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭﻳﻥ‪  .‬‬

‫ﻟﻳﻛﻥ ‪ X‬ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻳﺭﻓﻖ ﺑﻛﻝ ﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭ ﺳﻌﺭ ﺗﺫﻛﺭﺗﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎﺭ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃ( ﻋﻳﻥ ﻗﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ ‪  . X‬‬
‫ﺏ( ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﻷﻣﻝ ﺍﻟﺭﻳﺎﺿﻳﺎﺗﻲ ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ ‪  . X‬‬
‫‪ .2‬ﻧﺧﺗﺎﺭ ﻋﺷﻭﺍﺋﻳﺎ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻣﻥ ﻫﺅﻻء ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭﻳﻥ‪  .‬‬
‫ﺃ( ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﻟﻬﺅﻻء ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭﻳﻥ ﺍﺗﺟﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﺔ‪  .‬‬
‫ﺏ( ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﺍﺗﺟﺎﻩ ﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻝ ﻫﻭ ﻧﺣﻭ ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻁﺔ ‪  .B‬‬
‫ﺝ( ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﺍﺗﺟﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭﻳﻥ ﺍﻟﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻁﺔ ‪ ،B‬ﻋﻠﻣﺎ ﺃﻧّﻬﻡ ﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭﻳﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻔﺱ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺗﺟﺎﻩ‪  .‬‬
‫ﺣ ّﻝ‪  1:‬‬

‫‪ .1‬ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ‪ X‬ﻫﻭ ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻳﺭﻓﻖ ﺑﻛﻝ ﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭ ﺳﻌﺭ ﺗﺫﻛﺭﺗﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎﺭ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃ( ﺗﻌﻳﻳﻥ ﻗﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ ‪  . X‬‬
‫‪ 7‬ﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭﻳﻥ ﻣﻥ ﺑﻳﻥ ‪ 16‬ﻳﺗﺟﻬﻭﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻁﺔ ‪ B‬ﺣﻳﺙ ﺳﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺗﺫﻛﺭﺓ ﻫﻭ ‪ 50‬ﺩﻳﻧﺎﺭ‪  .‬‬
‫‪7‬‬
‫‪  . p(X  50) ‬‬ ‫ﺇﺫﻥ‪:‬‬
‫‪16‬‬

‫‪ 5‬ﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭﻳﻥ ﻣﻥ ﺑﻳﻥ ‪ 16‬ﻳﺗﺟﻬﻭﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻁﺔ ‪ ◌ِ C‬ﺣﻳﺙ ﺳﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺗﺫﻛﺭﺓ ﻫﻭ ‪ 60‬ﺩﻳﻧﺎﺭ‪.‬‬

‫‪5‬‬
‫‪. p(X‬‬ ‫‪ 60) ‬‬ ‫ﺇﺫﻥ‪:‬‬
‫‪16‬‬

‫‪ 4‬ﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭﻳﻥ ﻣﻥ ﺑﻳﻥ ‪ 16‬ﻳﺗﺟﻬﻭﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻁﺔ ‪ D‬ﺣﻳﺙ ﺳﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺗﺫﻛﺭﺓ ﻫﻭ ‪ 75‬ﺩﻳﻧﺎﺭ‪.‬‬

‫‪4 1‬‬
‫‪. p(X‬‬ ‫‪ 75) ‬‬ ‫‪‬‬ ‫ﺇﺫﻥ‪:‬‬
‫‪16 4‬‬

‫‪1 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫ﻭﻣﻧﻪ ﻗﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ‪ X‬ﻫﻭ‪:‬‬

‫‪Xi‬‬ ‫‪50‬‬ ‫‪60‬‬ ‫‪75‬‬

‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫) ‪p(X = X i‬‬
‫‪16‬‬ ‫‪16‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬

‫ﺏ( ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﻣﻝ ﺍﻟﺭﻳﺎﺿﻳﺎﺗﻲ ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ ‪  . X‬‬

‫ﻳﻌﻁﻰ ﺍﻷﻣﻝ ﺍﻟﺭﻳﺎﺿﻳﺎﺗﻲ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪475‬‬
‫=)‪  E(X)=50´p(X=50)+60´p(X=60)+75´p(X=75‬‬
‫‪8‬‬
‫‪475‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬ ‫ﺇﺫﻥ ﺍﻷﻣﻝ ﺍﻟﺭﻳﺎﺿﻳﺎﺗﻲ ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ ‪ X‬ﻫﻭ ‪= 59,375‬‬
‫‪8‬‬

‫‪ .2‬ﻧﺧﺗﺎﺭ ﻋﺷﻭﺍﺋﻳﺎ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻣﻥ ﻫﺅﻻء ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭﻳﻥ‪  .‬‬

‫ﺃ( ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﻟﻬﺅﻻء ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭﻳﻥ ﺍﺗﺟﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﺔ‪  .‬‬
‫÷‪æ ö‬‬
‫‪ ççç16‬ﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ ﻋﺷﻭﺍﺋﻳﺔ ﻻﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻣﻥ ﻫﺅﻻء ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭﻳﻥ‪.‬‬
‫÷÷ ‪3‬‬
‫ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ‪= 560‬‬
‫‪è‬‬ ‫‪ø‬‬

‫(‬ ‫) ‪1 )´( 1 )´( 1‬‬

‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫=)‪p(V‬‬ ‫=‬ ‫ﻭﻟﺗﻛﻥ ‪ V‬ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ " ﻟﻠﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭﻳﻥ ﺍﻟﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﺍﺗﺟﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﺔ " ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ﺇﺫﻥ‪:‬‬
‫) ‪(163‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬

‫ﺏ( ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﺍﺗﺟﺎﻩ ﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻝ ﻫﻭ ﻧﺣﻭ ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻁﺔ ‪  .B‬‬
‫ﻧﻌﺗﺑﺭ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ‪ W‬ﻭﻫﻲ‪ " :‬ﻻ ﺃﺣﺩ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭﻳﻥ ﺍﻟﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻣﺗﺟﻪ ﻧﺣﻭ ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻁﺔ ‪" B‬‬

‫ﻋﻧﺩﺋﺫ ﺗﻛﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ﺍﻟﻧﺎﻓﻳﺔ ﻟﻬﺎ ﻭﻫﻲ ‪ " : W‬ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﺍﺗﺟﺎﻩ ﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻝ ﻫﻭ ﻧﺣﻭ ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻁﺔ ‪" B‬‬

‫(‬ ‫)‪3‬‬
‫‪9‬‬
‫‪. p(W)= 16 = 3‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻠﻡ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ‪ 9‬ﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭﻳﻥ ﻟﻬﻡ ﺍﺗﺟﺎﻩ ﻏﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻁﺔ ‪ ،B‬ﻭﻣﻧﻪ‬
‫‪( 3 ) 20‬‬
‫‪3 17‬‬
‫‪p(W) = 1- p(W)=1-‬‬ ‫=‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻧﻪ‬
‫‪20 20‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﻥ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﺍﺗﺟﺎﻩ ﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻝ ﻫﻭ ﻧﺣﻭ ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻁﺔ ‪ B‬ﻫﻭ‪. p(W) = 17 :‬‬
‫‪20‬‬

‫ﺝ( ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﺍﺗﺟﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭﻳﻥ ﺍﻟﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻁﺔ ‪ ،B‬ﻋﻠﻣﺎ ﺃﻧّﻬﻡ ﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭﻳﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻔﺱ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺗﺟﺎﻩ‪  .‬‬

‫‪2 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫* ﻧﺣﺳﺏ ّﺃﻭﻻ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ )‪ p(E‬ﻟﻠﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ‪ " : E‬ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﻟﻠﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭﻳﻥ ﺍﻟﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻧﻔﺱ ﺍﻻﺗﺟﺎﻩ‪." ‬‬
‫ﺃﻱ ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻁﺔ ‪ B‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻁﺔ ‪ C‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻁﺔ ‪ .D‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺃﺣﺩﺍﺙ ﻏﻳﺭ ﻣﺗﻼﺋﻣﺔ ﻭﻣﻧﻪ‪:‬‬

‫(‬ ‫)‪3‬‬
‫‪7‬‬
‫(‬ ‫)‪3‬‬
‫‪5‬‬
‫(‬ ‫)‪3‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫= ‪p(E)= 16 + 16 + 16‬‬
‫‪7‬‬
‫‪( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) 80‬‬
‫* ﻧﺣﺳﺏ ﺛﺎﻧﻳﺎ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ )‪ p(F‬ﻟﻠﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ‪ " : F‬ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﺍﺗﺟﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭﻳﻥ ﺍﻟﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻁﺔ ‪" B‬‬

‫(‬ ‫)‪3‬‬
‫‪7‬‬
‫= ‪p(F)= 16‬‬
‫‪35‬‬
‫=‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪( 3 ) 560 16‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ " ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﺍﺗﺟﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭﻳﻥ ﺍﻟﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻁﺔ ‪ ،B‬ﻋﻠﻣﺎ ﺃﻧّﻬﻡ ﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭﻳﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻔﺱ ﺍﻻﺗﺟﺎﻩ"‬
‫ﺗﻭﺍﻓﻖ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺷﺭﻁﻲ )‪ . pE (F‬ﺑﺎﻟﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﻧﺟﺩ‪  . p E (F)= p (F Ç E) = p (F) = 5 :‬‬
‫)‪p (E‬‬ ‫)‪p (E‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬

‫ﺗﻣر ن ‪:2‬‬

‫ﺗﺗﺣرك ﻧﻘطﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺧطو ﺷ ﺔ ﺗﺗﻛون ﻣن ‪ 16‬ﺧﺎﻧﺔ ﻣﺗﺳﺎو ﺔ اﻟ ﻌدﯾن‪ .‬ﻧﺳﻣﻲ‬

‫" ﻗﻔزة " ﻟﻬذﻩ اﻟﻧﻘطﺔ ﻞ ﺗﺣرك ﻟﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ أﺣد ﻌد ﺧﺎﻧﺎت ﻫذﻩ اﻟﺷ ﺔ‪ .‬ﻣ ن‬
‫ﻟﻬذﻩ اﻟﻘﻔزة أن ﺗﻛون ﻧﺣو اﻷﻋﻠﻰ أو ﻧﺣو اﻷﺳﻔﻞ أو ﻧﺣو اﻟ ﻣﯾن أو ﻧﺣو‬
‫أن ﺗﺣرك ﻫذﻩ اﻟﻧﻘطﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻻﺗﺟﺎﻫﺎت اﻷرﻌﺔ ﻟﻪ ﻧﻔس اﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎل‪.‬‬
‫اﻟ ﺳﺎر‪ .‬ﻧﻔرض ّ‬
‫ﺛم‬
‫و ّأﻧﻬﺎ ﺗﻧطﻠ ﻣن اﻟﻣﺑدأ ‪ ، O‬وﺗﻧﺟز ﻗﻔزﺗﯾن ﻣﺗﺗﺎ ﻌﺗﯾن‪ .‬ﻓﺈذا ﻗﻔزت ﻧﺣو اﻟ ﻣﯾن ّ‬
‫ﻧﺣو اﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﺻﺎرت ﻓﻲ اﻟﻣوﺿﻊ ‪.A‬‬

‫‪ .1‬ﻋّﻠم ﻞ اﻟﻣو ِ‬
‫اﺿﻊ اﻟﺗﻲ ﻣ ن ﻟﻬذﻩ اﻟﻧﻘطﺔ أن ﺗﺻﻞ إﻟﯾﻬﺎ ﻌد ﻗﻔزﺗﯾن‪.‬‬ ‫ََ‬
‫ﻋدد‪ ،‬ﺎﻟﻧﺳ ﺔ إﻟﻰ ﻞ ﻣوﺿﻊ‪ ،‬ﻋدد اﻟطرق اﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﺻﻞ ﺑﻬﺎ اﻟﻧﻘطﺔ إﻟﻰ ﻫذا اﻟﻣوﺿﻊ‪.‬‬ ‫ِ‬
‫ّ‬

‫‪ .2‬اﺣﺳب اﺣﺗﻣﺎل اﻟﺣﺎدﺛﺔ " ﻣوﺿﻊ اﻟﻧﻘطﺔ ﻌد ﻗﻔزﺗﯾن ﻫو اﻟﻣﺑدأ ‪" O‬‬
‫ﺣ ّﻝ‪:-2-‬‬

‫‪ .1‬ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺍﺿﻊ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﻳﻣﻛﻥ ﻟﻠﻧﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺻﻭﻝ ﺇﻟﻳﻬﺎ ﻣﻭﺿﺣﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻣﺧﻁﻁ ﺍﻵﺗﻲ‪  :‬‬

‫‪ ‬‬

‫‪3 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻕ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﺻﻝ ﺑﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻧﻘﻁﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻛﻝ ﻣﻭﺿﻊ ﻣﺳﺟﻝ ﺑﺟﺎﻧﺏ ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺿﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻣﺧﻁﻁ ﺃﻋﻼﻩ‪ .‬ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻉ‬
‫ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻕ ﻫﻭ ‪.16‬‬

‫‪ .2‬ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ " ﻣﻭﺿﻊ ﺍﻟﻧﻘﻁﺔ ﺑﻌﺩ ﻗﻔﺯﺗﻳﻥ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻟﻣﺑﺩﺃ ‪  " O‬‬
‫ﻣﻥ ﺑﻳﻥ ‪ 16‬ﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ ﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﺔ ﻫﻧﺎﻙ ‪ 4‬ﻁﺭﻕ ﺗﻭﺍﻓﻖ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ﺍﻟﻣﻁﻠﻭﺏ ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻟﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻣﻧﻪ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ‬
‫‪4 1‬‬
‫‪ .‬‬ ‫ﺗﺣﻘﻖ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ﻫﻭ‪= :‬‬
‫‪16 4‬‬

‫ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ ‪:3‬‬

‫ﺃﻥ ‪ 95%  ‬ﻣﻥ ﺃﺟﻬﺯﺓ ﺍﻟﻐﺳﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﺻﻧﻌﻬﺎ ﻣﺅﺳﺳﺔ ﺻﻧﺎﻋﻳﺔ ﻫﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﺩﻟﺕ ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺇﺣﺻﺎﺋﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ّ‬
‫ﺗﺷﻐﻳﻝ ‪ .‬ﺗﻡ ﺇﺧﺿﺎﻉ ﻫﺫﻩ ﻏﺳﺎﻻﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻣﺅﺳﺳﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ ﻣﺭﺍﻗﺑﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻛﺎﻧﺕ ﺍﻟﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ ﻛﻣﺎ ﻳﺄﺗﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪ ‬ﻋﻧﺩﻣﺎ ﺗﻛﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻐﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺗﺷﻐﻳﻝ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﻣﻘﺑﻭﻟﺔ ﺑﻧﺳﺑﺔ ‪ 96 %‬ﻋﻧﺩ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ‪  .‬‬
‫‪ ‬ﻋﻧﺩﻣﺎ ﻻ ﺗﻛﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻐﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺗﺷﻐﻳﻝ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﻣﻘﺑﻭﻟﺔ ﺑﻧﺳﺑﺔ ‪ 8 %‬ﻋﻧﺩ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ‪  .‬‬
‫ﻧﺧﺗﺎﺭ ﻋﺷﻭﺍﺋﻳﺎ ﻏﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻐﺳﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﺻﻧﻌﻬﺎ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻣﺅﺳﺳﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻧﻌﺭﻑ ﺍﻷﺣﺩﺍﺙ ﺍﻵﺗﻳﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺣﺩﺙ ‪ " : F‬ﺍﻟﻐﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﺷﺗﻐﺎﻝ "‬

‫ﺍﻟﺣﺩﺙ ‪" :T‬ﺍﻟﻐﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﻘﺑﻭﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ"‬

‫ﺍﻟﺣﺩﺙ ‪" : T‬ﺍﻟﻐﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﺭﻓﻭﺿﺔ ﻋﻧﺩ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ "‬

‫ﻧﺭﻣﺯ ﺑﺎﻟﺭﻣﺯ )‪ (A/B‬ﻟﻠﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ "‪ A‬ﻋﻠﻣﺎ ‪ ." B‬ﻭﻫﻛﺫﺍ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ‪ F‬ﻫﻭ ‪ P(F) = 0,95‬ﻭﻳﻛﻭﻥ‬
‫ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ )‪ (T/F‬ﻫﻭ ‪. p F (T ) = 0,96‬‬

‫‪ .1‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻻ ﺗﻛﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻐﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﺷﺗﻐﺎﻝ؟ ‪ ‬‬

‫‪ .2‬ﺃ( ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺭﻓﺽ ﺍﻟﻐﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻣﺎ ﺃﻧّﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﺷﺗﻐﺎﻝ‪  .‬‬
‫ﺏ( ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺭﻓﺽ ﺍﻟﻐﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ ﻭﻫﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﺷﺗﻐﺎﻝ‪.‬‬
‫ﺟـ( ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺭﻓﺽ ﺍﻟﻐﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ ﻭﻫﻲ ﻟﻳﺳﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﺷﺗﻐﺎﻝ‪.‬‬
‫‪ .3‬ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺭﻓﺽ ﺍﻟﻐﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﻧﺩ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ‪.‬‬
‫‪ .4‬ﺗﻡ ﺭﻓﺽ ﻏﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻛﻭﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺧﻳﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﺷﺗﻐﺎﻝ؟ ‪ ‬‬
‫‪4 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫ﺣ ّﻝ ‪:-3-‬‬

‫ﻧﻌﺑﺭ ّﺃﻭﻻ ﻋﻥ ﻣﻌﻁﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺄﻟﺔ ﺑﻣﺻﻁﻠﺣﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ‪.‬‬

‫‪ ‬ﻋﻧﺩﻣﺎ ﺗﻛﻭﻥ ﻏﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﺷﺗﻐﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﻣﻘﺑﻭﻟﺔ ﺑﻧﺳﺑﺔ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻳﻌﻧﻲ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ )‪ (T/F‬ﻫﻭ ‪ 0,96‬ﺃﻱ ‪  . p F (T ) = 0,96‬‬
‫‪ ‬ﻋﻧﺩﻣﺎ ﻻ ﺗﻛﻭﻥ ﻏﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﺷﺗﻐﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﻣﻘﺑﻭﻟﺔ ﺑﻧﺳﺑﺔ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻳﻌﻧﻲ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ )‪ (T/F‬ﻫﻭ ‪ 0,08‬ﺃﻱ ‪ . p F (T ) = 0,08‬ﻭﻣﻧﻪ ﻧﺳﺗﻧﺗﺞ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ )‪  (T/F‬‬
‫ﻫﻭ ‪ 0,92‬ﺃﻱ ‪. p F (T ) = 0,92‬‬

‫‪ ‬ﻧﻌﻠﻡ ﺃﻳﺿﺎ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ‪  .‬‬
‫‪.1‬ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻻ ﺗﻛﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻐﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﺷﺗﻐﺎﻝ ﻫﻭ )‪ ، p (F‬ﺣﻳﺙ ‪  . p(F) = 1 - p(F) = 0,05‬‬
‫‪.2‬ﺃ( ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺭﻓﺽ ﺍﻟﻐﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻣﺎ ﺃﻧّﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﺷﺗﻐﺎﻝ ﻫﻭ‪  :‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻁﻠﻭﺏ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺳﺅﺍﻝ ﻫﻭ ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ )‪ (T/F‬ﺃﻱ ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ )‪ ، p F (T‬ﻭﻣﻧﻪ ‪ ‬‬

‫‪  p F (T ) =1 - p F (T ) = 1 - 0,96 = 0,04‬‬

‫ﺏ( ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺭﻓﺽ ﺍﻟﻐﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ ﻭﻫﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﺷﺗﻐﺎﻝ ﻫﻭ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻁﻠﻭﺏ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺳﺅﺍﻝ ﻫﻭ ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ )‪ (T Ç F‬ﺃﻱ ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ‪ ، p(T Ç F‬ﻭﻣﻧﻪ‪:‬‬
‫‪p (T Ç F) =p F (T )´ p (F) = 0,04 ´ 0,95 = 0,038‬‬

‫ﺟـ( ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺭﻓﺽ ﺍﻟﻐﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ ﻭﻫﻲ ﻟﻳﺳﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﺷﺗﻐﺎﻝ ﻫﻭ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻁﻠﻭﺏ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺳﺅﺍﻝ ﻫﻭ ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ )‪ (T Ç F‬ﺃﻱ ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ )‪ ، p(T Ç F‬ﻭﻣﻧﻪ‪:‬‬

‫‪p (T Ç F) =p F (T )´ p (F) = 0,92 ´ 0,05 = 0,046‬‬

‫‪.3‬ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺭﻓﺽ ﺍﻟﻐﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﻧﺩ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ‪  .‬‬

‫ﺣﺳﺏ ﻗﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻛﻠﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ‪p (T ) =p (T Ç F) +p (T Ç F) :‬‬

‫ﻭﻣﻧﻪ ‪. p (T ) =0,038+0,046=0,084‬‬

‫‪5 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫‪.4‬ﺗﻡ ﺭﻓﺽ ﻏﺳﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻛﻭﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺧﻳﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﺷﺗﻐﺎﻝ؟ ‪ ‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻁﻠﻭﺏ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺳﺅﺍﻝ ﻫﻭ ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ )‪ (F/T‬ﺃﻱ ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ )‪ ، pT (F‬ﻭﻣﻧﻪ ﻧﺟﺩ‪:‬‬
‫‪P(F Ç T) 0,038‬‬
‫=)‪  . pT (F‬‬ ‫=‬ ‫‪» 0,452‬‬
‫)‪P(T‬‬ ‫‪0,084‬‬

‫ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ ‪:4‬‬

‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺟﺯء ّ‬
‫ﻳﺣﺗﻭﻱ ﻭﻋﺎء ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ n‬ﻛﺮﺓ ﺑﻴﻀﺎء )‪ n‬ﻋﺪﺩ ﻁﺒﻴﻌﻲ( ﻭ‪ 5‬ﻛﺮﺍﺕ ﺣﻤﺮﺍء ﻭ‪ 3‬ﻛﺮﺍﺕ ﺧﻀﺮﺍء‪ .‬ﻧﺳﺣﺏ ﻣﻧﻪ‬
‫ﻋﺷﻭﺍﺋﻳﺎ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺁﻥ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪ .1‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺻﻭﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﺑﻳﺿﺎﻭﻳﻥ؟‬
‫‪ .2‬ﻧﺮﻣﺰ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ ) ‪ P(n‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﺮﺗﻴﻦ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪.‬‬
‫)‪(n ² - n + 26‬‬
‫=) ‪.P(n‬‬ ‫ﺃ( ﺃﺛﺒﺖ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬
‫)‪(n + 8)(n + 7‬‬
‫ﺳﺭ ﺍﻟﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ‪.‬‬‫‪ ، nlim‬ﻓ ّ‬
‫‪+ ¥‬‬
‫ﺏ( ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ) ‪P(n‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺟﺯء ﺍﻟﺛﺎﻧﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﻧﻌﺘﺒﺮ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﺟﺯء ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ‪.n = 4‬‬

‫‪ .1‬ﺍﺣﺴﺐ )‪.p(4‬‬
‫‪ .2‬ﻧﺴﻤﻲ ﺳﺤﺒﺎ ﻛﻞ ﺳﺤﺐ ﻋﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ ﻟﻜﺮﺗﻴﻦ ﻓﻲ ﺁﻥ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻮﻋﺎء‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﻘﻮﻡ ﻻﻋﺐ ﺑﺈﻧﺠﺎﺯ ﺳﺤﺒﻴﻦ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻠﻴﻦ ﻋﻦ ﺑﻌﻀﻬﻤﺎ ﺑﺤﻴﺚ ﻳﻌﻴﺪ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻮﻋﺎء ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺗﻴﻦ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺤﻮﺑﺘﻴﻦ ﻣﻨﻪ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﺤﺐ ّ‬
‫ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺇﺟﺮﺍء ﻫﺬﻳﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﺤﺒﻴﻦ ﻳﺪﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﻼﻋﺐ ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺎ ﻣﺒﻠﻐﺎ ﻗﺪﺭﻩ ‪ 30‬ﺩﻳﻨﺎﺭﺍ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ ﺃﺟﻞ ﻛﻞ ﺳﺤﺐ ﻳﺘﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫‪ 40‬ﺩﻳﻨﺎﺭ ﺇﻥ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺗﺎﻥ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﻳﺘﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ 5‬ﺩﻧﺎﻧﻴﺮ ﻓﻘﻂ ﺇﻥ ﻛﺎﻧﺘﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻟﻮﻧﻴﻦ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﻴﻦ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﺴﻤﻲ ﺭﺑﺤﺎ ﻟﻬﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻼﻋﺐ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺭﻕ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺴﺤﺒﻴﻦ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺒﻠﻎ ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﺩﻓﻌﻪ ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺎ‬
‫)ﻳﻤﻜﻦ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺮﺑﺢ ﻣﻮﺟﺒﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺳﺎﻟﺒﺎ(‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﻌﺮﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ ‪ X‬ﺍﻟﺬﻱ ﻳﺮﻓﻖ ﺑﻜﻞ ﺳﺤﺒﻴﻦ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻠﻴﻦ ﺭﺑﺢ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻼﻋﺐ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃ( ﻣﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮ ‪ X‬؟‬
‫ﺏ( ﻋﻴﻦ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮ ‪. X‬‬
‫ﺝ( ﺍﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻷﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺭﻳﺎﺿﻳﺎﺗﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮ ‪. X‬‬

‫‪6 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫ﺣﻞ‪:◌ّ - 4 -‬‬
‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﺰء ّ‬
‫‪ .1‬ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺳﺤﺐ ﻛﺮﺗﻴﻦ ﻣﻦ ﻟﻮﻥ ﺃﺑﻴﺾ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﻌﺮﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺩﺛﺔ ‪ »  : B‬ﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﻣﻥ ﻟﻭﻥ ﺃﺑﻳﺽ «‬
‫ّ‬
‫ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻹﻣﻛﺎﻧﻳﺎﺕ ﻫﻲ ﺗﻭﻓﻳﻘﺎﺕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﻣﻥ ﺑﻳﻥ ‪ n+8‬ﻛﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻣﻧﻪ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻣﻛﻧﺔ ﻫﻭ‪ :‬‬
‫)‪(n + 8)(n + 7‬‬
‫= ‪. C2n +8‬‬
‫‪2‬‬

‫ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﻫﻮ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻓﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﻛﺮﺗﻴﻦ ﺑﻴﻀﺎﻭﻳﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻴﻦ ‪ n‬ﻛﺮﺓ ﺑﻴﻀﺎء ﺃﻱ ﻫﻮ‪ :‬‬
‫)‪n (n -1‬‬
‫= ‪.C2n‬‬
‫‪2‬‬

‫‪C2n‬‬ ‫)‪n (n -1‬‬

‫= )‪. P(B‬‬ ‫=‬ ‫ﻣﻧﻪ‬
‫)‪C2n +8 (n + 8)(n + 7‬‬

‫)‪(n ² - n + 26‬‬
‫=) ‪  .P(n‬‬ ‫‪ .2‬ﺃ( ﺇﺛﺒﺎﺕ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬
‫)‪(n + 8)(n + 7‬‬
‫ﻧﻌﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺗﻳﻥ ‪ » : R‬ﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﺣﻣﺭﺍﻭﻳﻥ «‪  ‬‬
‫ّ‬
‫ﻭ ‪ » :V‬ﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﺧﺿﺭﺍﻭﻳﻥ«‪   ‬‬

‫‪C52‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬
‫= ‪P(R) = 2‬‬ ‫ﺇﺫﻥ ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ‪:‬‬
‫)‪Cn +8 (n + 8)(n + 7‬‬

‫‪C32‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫= ‪. P(V) = 2‬‬ ‫ﻭ‬
‫)‪Cn +8 (n + 8)(n + 7‬‬

‫ﻧﻌﻠﻡ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺣﺩﺍﺙ ‪ V ،R ،B‬ﻣﻧﻔﺻﻠﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺑﻌﺿﻬﺎ ﻣﺛﻧﻰ ﻣﺛﻧﻰ‪،‬‬

‫ﻭﻣﻧﻪ ﻳﻧﺗﺞ‪:‬‬
‫)‪P(n ) = P(B)+P(R)+P(V‬‬

‫)‪n (n -1‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬

‫= ) ‪P(n‬‬ ‫‪+‬‬ ‫‪+‬‬ ‫ﺃﻱ‬
‫)‪(n + 8)(n + 7) (n + 8)(n + 7) (n + 8)(n + 7‬‬

‫‪7 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫‪n ² - n + 26‬‬
‫= ) ‪(1)......... P(n‬‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ﻧﺟﺩ‪:‬‬
‫)‪(n + 8)(n + 7‬‬

‫ﺏ( ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ) ‪ lim P(n‬ﻭ ﺗﻔﺳﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪n+ ¥‬‬

‫‪. nlim‬‬
‫‪+ ¥‬‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻣﺑﺎﺷﺭ ﻧﺟﺩ‪P(n )=1 :‬‬

‫ﺳﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻧّﻪ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻛﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺑﻳﺿﺎء ﻛﺑﻳﺭ ﺑﻣﺎ ﻓﻳﻪ ﻛﻔﺎﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻧّﻧﺎ ﻧﻧﺗﻅﺭ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻛﻭﻥ‬
‫ﺗﻔ ّ‬
‫ﻭﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺷﺑﻪ ﻣﺅﻛﺩﺓ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺳﺣﺏ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﺣﺻﻭﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﺑﻳﺿﺎﻭﻳﻥ‪ّ .‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺟﺯء ﺍﻟﺛﺎﻧﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ‪.n = 4‬‬

‫‪ .1‬ﺣﺳﺎﺏ )‪  . P(4‬‬

‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‬
‫ﻳﻛﻔﻲ ﻷﺟﻝ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺗﻌﻭﻳﺽ ﻋﻥ ‪ n‬ﺑﺎﻟﻌﺩﺩ ‪ 4‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ )‪ (1‬ﻟﻠﺳﺅﺍﻝ ‪ 2‬ﺃ( ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﺟﺯء ّ‬
‫‪19‬‬
‫= )‪. P(4‬‬ ‫ﻓﻧﺟﺩ‬
‫‪ ‬‬ ‫‪66‬‬

‫ﺃ( ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻮﺍﺋﻲ ‪ X‬ﻫﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪ " X = 50" ‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﺣﺻﻝ ﺍﻟﻼﻋﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﻣﻥ ﻧﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﻠﻭﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻛﻼ ﺍﻟﺳﺣﺑﻳﻥ ‪ ‬‬
‫)‪(50 = ‐30 + 40 + 40‬‬

‫‪ "X = 15" ‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﺤﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﻼﻋﺐ ّ‬

‫ﻣﺮﺓ ﻭﺍﺣﺪﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﺮﺗﻴﻦ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻔﺲ ﺍﻟﻠﻮﻥ‬
‫)‪(15 = -30 + 40 + 5‬‬

‫‪ "X = -20" ‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﺣﺻﻝ ﺍﻟﻼﻋﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﻣﻥ ﻟﻭﻧﻳﻥ ﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﻳﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻛﻼ ﺍﻟﺳﺣﺑﻳﻥ ‪ ‬‬
‫)‪  (‐20 = ‐30 + 5 + 5‬‬
‫ﺏ( ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻗﺎﻧﻮﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺮ ‪. X‬‬
‫ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ ﻓﺮﺿﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﺤﺒﻴﻦ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻠﻴﻦ ﻋﻦ ﺑﻌﻀﻬﻤﺎ ﺇﺫﻥ ﻳﻨﺘﺞ‪:‬‬

‫‪æ 19 ÷ö2 361‬‬

‫= ÷÷ ‪  P(X=50)=P(4)×P(4)= ççç‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪è 66 ø 4356‬‬
‫‪  P(X=15)=P(4)×(1-P(4))+(1-P(4))×P(4) ‬‬
‫‪19 47 1786‬‬
‫= ´ ´ ‪  P(X=15)=2P(4)×(1-P(4)) = 2‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻧﻪ‬
‫‪66‬‬ ‫‪66‬‬ ‫‪4356‬‬

‫‪8 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫‪æ 47 ö÷2 2209‬‬
‫= ÷÷ ‪  P(X=20)= ççç‬‬ ‫‪ P(X=20)=(1-P(4))² ‬ﻭﻣﻧﻪ‪:‬‬
‫‪è 66 ø‬‬ ‫‪4356‬‬
‫ﺝ( ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﻣﻞ ﺍﻟﺭﻳﺎﺿﻳﺎﺗﻲ ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ ‪. X‬‬
‫‪E(X) = å P(X = k ) ´ k‬‬ ‫ﻟﺪﻳﻨﺎ‪:‬‬
‫}‪k Î{50,15,20‬‬

‫ﻭﻣﻧﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﺗﻌﻭﻳﺽ ﻧﺟﺩ‪:‬‬

‫‪361‬‬ ‫‪1786‬‬ ‫‪2209 5‬‬
‫´ ‪E(X) = 50‬‬ ‫´‪+ 15‬‬ ‫´ ‪+ 20‬‬ ‫=‬
‫‪ ‬‬ ‫‪4356‬‬ ‫‪4356‬‬ ‫‪4356 33‬‬
‫ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ ‪:5‬‬

‫ﻧﺭﻳﺩ ﺍﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻳﺔ ﺩﻭﺍء ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ ﻣﻌﻁﻰ‪ .‬ﺭﺑﻊ ﺃﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ ﺗ ّﻡ ﺗﻁﻌﻳﻣﻬﻡ ﺑﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺍء‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﺛﻧﺎء ﺗﺑّﻳﻥ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺗﺭﺓ ﺍﻧﺗﺷﺎﺭ ﻭﺑﺎء ﻣﻌﻳّﻥ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﻣﻥ ﺑﻳﻥ ﻛﻝ ‪ 10‬ﻣﺭﺿﻰ ﻣﺻﺎﺑﻭﻥ ﺑﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻭﺑﺎء ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻓﻘﻁ ﻣﻧﻬﻡ‬
‫ﻣﻁﻌّﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺗﺑﻳّﻥ ﺃﻳﺿﺎ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ‪ 1/9‬ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻣﻁﻌّﻣﻳﻥ ﻫﻡ ﻣﺭﺿﻰ ﺑﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻭﺑﺎء‪.‬‬

‫ﻧﺧﺗﺎﺭ ﻋﺷﻭﺍﺋﻳﺎ ﺷﺧﺻﺎ ﻭﺍﺣﺩﺍ ﻣﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‪.‬‬

‫ﻧﺭﻣﺯ ﺑﺎﻟﺭﻣﺯ ‪ M ‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ‪ » :‬ﺍﻟﺷﺧﺹ ﻣﺭﻳﺽ « ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺭﻣﺯ ‪ V‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ‪ » :‬ﺍﻟﺷﺧﺹ ﻣﻁﻌّﻡ«‬

‫‪5‬‬
‫= )‪  . P(M‬‬ ‫‪ .1‬ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ) ‪ ، P(M Ç V‬ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺷﺧﺹ ﺍﻟﻣﺧﺗﺎﺭ ﻣﺭﻳﺽ ﻭﻣﻁﻌّﻡ‪ .‬ﺍﺳﺗﻧﺗﺞ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ‬
‫‪18‬‬

‫‪ .2‬ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ) ‪ . P(M Ç V‬ﺍﺳﺗﻧﺗﺞ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺷﺭﻁﻲ )‪  . PV (M‬‬

‫ﺣ ّﻝ‪:- 5 -‬‬
‫‪5‬‬
‫= )‪. P(M‬‬ ‫‪ .1‬ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ) ‪ P(M Ç V‬ﻭ ﺍﺳﺗﻧﺗﺎﺝ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ‬
‫‪18‬‬
‫ﻧﺑﺩﺃ ﺑﺗﺭﺟﻣﺔ ﻣﻌﻁﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺄﻟﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻟﻐﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ‪.‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫= )‪  . P(V‬‬ ‫ﺭﺑﻊ ﺃﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ ﺗ ّﻡ ﺗﻁﻌﻳﻣﻬﻡ ﺑﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺍء‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﻥ‪:‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫= )‪  . PM (V‬‬ ‫‪ ‬ﻣﻥ ﺑﻳﻥ ﻛﻝ ‪ 10‬ﻣﺭﺿﻰ ﻣﺻﺎﺑﻭﻥ ﺑﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻭﺑﺎء ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻓﻘﻁ ﻣﻧﻬﻡ ﻣﻁﻌّﻡ‪،‬ﺇﺫﻥ‬
‫‪10‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪ 1/9 ‬ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻣﻁﻌّﻣﻳﻥ ﻫﻡ ﻣﺭﺿﻰ ﺑﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻭﺑﺎء‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﻥ‪  . PV (M) = :‬‬
‫‪9‬‬
‫‪1 1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫= ´ = )‪. P(V Ç M) = P (V) ´ PV (M‬‬ ‫ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ﻣﻥ ﺟﻬﺔ‪،‬‬
‫‪4 9 36‬‬

‫‪9 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫ﻭﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ﻣﻥ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺃﺧﺭﻯ‪، P(V Ç M) = PM (V) ´ P(M) ،‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪P(V Ç M) 36‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫= )‪. P(M‬‬ ‫=‬ ‫=‬ ‫ﻣﻧﻪ ﻧﺟﺩ‬
‫)‪PM (V‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪18‬‬
‫‪10‬‬

‫‪ .2‬ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ) ‪ P(M Ç V‬ﻭ ﺍﺳﺗﻧﺗﺎﺝ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺷﺭﻁﻲ )‪  . PV (M‬‬

‫ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ‪P(M Ç V )=PM (V) ´ P(M)=(1-PM (V)) ´ P(M) :‬‬

‫‪9 5 1‬‬
‫=) ‪P(M Ç V‬‬ ‫= ´‬ ‫ﻣﻧﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﺗﻌﻭﻳﺽ ﻧﺟﺩ‬
‫‪10 18 4‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪P(M Ç V ) 4 1‬‬
‫= )‪  . PV (M‬‬ ‫ﻭﻧﺳﺗﻧﺗﺞ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ = =‬
‫)‪P(V‬‬ ‫‪3 3‬‬
‫‪4‬‬

‫ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ ‪:7‬‬

‫ﻳﻘﺗﺭﺡ ﺑﺎﺋﻊ ﻣﺛﻠﺟﺎﺕ ‪ 10‬ﻧﻛﻬﺎﺕ ﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﺔ ﻟﻣﺛﻠﺟﺎﺗﻪ‪ .‬ﻳﻘﻭﻡ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﺃﺷﺧﺎﺹ‪ ‬ﻛﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺩﺓ ﺑﺎﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ ﻧﻛﻬﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻣﺛﻠﺟﺔ ﻳﺗﻧﺎﻭﻟﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ .1‬ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺗﺣﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ‪" A :‬ﻳﺧﺗﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺷﺧﺎﺹ ﺍﻟﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻧﻛﻬﺎﺕ ﻣﺗﻣﺎﻳﺯﺓ ﻣﺛﻧﻰ ﻣﺛﻧﻰ"‬
‫‪ .2‬ﻟﻳﻛﻥ ‪ X‬ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻳﺣﺻﻲ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻧﻛﻬﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﺧﺗﺎﺭ ﻣﻥ ﻗﺑﻝ ﺍﻷﺷﺧﺎﺹ ﺍﻟﺛﻼﺛﺔ‪  .‬‬
‫ﻋﻳّﻥ ﻗﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ ‪ ،X‬ﺛ ّﻡ ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﻷﻣﻝ ﺍﻟﺭﻳﺎﺿﻳﺎﺗﻲ ﻟﻪ ﻭ ﻓ ّ‬
‫ﺳﺭ ﺍﻟﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺣ ّﻝ‪:- 7 -‬‬

‫‪ .1‬ﻟﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺗﺣﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ‪ ، A‬ﻧﺳﺗﻌﻣﻝ ﺍﻟﺩﺳﺗﻭﺭ‪  :‬‬

‫‪ ‬‬
‫= ) ‪P (A‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﻣﻛﻧﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ‬
‫ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺳﺑﺔ‬

‫ﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ ﺃﻭﻟﻰ‪) :‬ﺗﻁﺑﻳﻖ ﺍﻟﻣﺑﺩﺃ ﺍﻷﺳﺎﺳﻲ ﻟﻠﻌﺩّ(‬

‫‪ ‬ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻣﻛﻧﺔ‪  :‬‬

‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ 10‬ﺇﻣﻛﺎﻧﻳﺎﺕ ﻻﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ ﻧﻛﻬﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻟﻠﺗﻠﻣﻳﺫ ّ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‪ ،‬ﺗﻭﺟﺩ ‪ 10‬ﺇﻣﻛﺎﻧﻳﺔ ﻻﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ ﻧﻛﻬﺔ ﻣﻥ ﻗﺑﻝ ﺍﻟﺷﺧﺹ ﺍﻟﺛﺎﻧﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻥ ﺃﺟﻝ ﻛﻝ ﺍﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺷﺧﺹ ّ‬

‫‪10 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻭﺍﻟﺛﺎﻧﻲ‪ ،‬ﺗﻭﺟﺩ ‪10‬ﺇﻣﻛﺎﻧﻳﺎﺕ ﻻﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ ﻧﻛﻬﺔ ﻣﻥ ﻗﺑﻝ ﺍﻟﺷﺧﺹ ﺍﻟﺛﺎﻟﺙ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻥ ﺃﺟﻝ ﻛﻝ ﺍﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ ﻟﻠﺷﺧﺻﻳﻥ ّ‬
‫ﺇﺫﻥ ﻫﻧﺎﻟﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻣﺟﻣﻭﻉ ‪ 10 ´10 ´10‬ﺃﻱ ‪ 103‬ﺇﻣﻛﺎﻧﻳﺔ ﻻﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ ﺛﻼﺙ ﻧﻛﻬﺎﺕ ﻣﻥ ﻗﺑﻝ ﺍﻷﺷﺧﺎﺹ ﺍﻟﺛﻼﺛﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻧﻪ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻣﻛﻧﺔ ﻫﻭ ‪.1000‬‬

‫‪ ‬ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺳﺑﺔ‪  :‬‬

‫ﻟﻠﺷﺧﺹ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ 10‬ﺇﻣﻛﺎﻧﻳﺎﺕ ﻻﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ ﻧﻛﻬﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‪ ،‬ﺗﻭﺟﺩ ‪ 9‬ﺇﻣﻛﺎﻧﻳﺔ ﻻﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ ﻧﻛﻬﺔ ﻣﻥ ﻗﺑﻝ ﺍﻟﺷﺧﺹ ﺍﻟﺛﺎﻧﻲ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﻥ ﺃﺟﻝ ﻛﻝ ﺍﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺷﺧﺹ ّ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻧﻛﻬﺔ ﻭﺍﺣﺩﺓ ﻭﺑﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﺷﺧﺹ ﺍﻟﺛﺎﻧﻲ ‪ 9‬ﻧﻛﻬﺎﺕ ﻳﺧﺗﺎﺭ ﻣﻧﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﺣﺩﺓ(‬ ‫ّ‬
‫)ﻷﻥ ﺍﻟﺷﺧﺹ ّ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻭﺍﻟﺛﺎﻧﻲ‪ ،‬ﺗﻭﺟﺩ ‪ 8‬ﺇﻣﻛﺎﻧﻳﺎﺕ ﻻﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ ﻧﻛﻬﺔ ﻣﻥ ﻗﺑﻝ ﺍﻟﺷﺧﺹ ﺍﻟﺛﺎﻟﺙ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻥ ﺃﺟﻝ ﻛﻝ ﺍﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ ﻟﻠﺷﺧﺻﻳﻥ ّ‬
‫ّ‬
‫)ﻷﻥ ﺍﻟﺷﺧﺹ ﺍﻟﺛﺎﻟﺙ ﻳﺧﺗﺎﺭ ﻧﻛﻬﺔ ﺗﺧﺗﻠﻑ ﻋﻥ ﻣﺎ ﺍﺧﺗﺎﺭﻩ ﺍﻟﺷﺧﺻﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺳﺎﺑﻘﺎﻥ(‬
‫ﺇﺫﻥ ﻫﻧﺎﻟﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻣﺟﻣﻭﻉ ‪ 10 ´ 9 ´8‬ﺃﻱ ‪ 720‬ﺇﻣﻛﺎﻧﻳﺔ ﻻﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ ﺛﻼﺙ ﻧﻛﻬﺎﺕ ﻣﻥ ﻗﺑﻝ ﺍﻷﺷﺧﺎﺹ ﺍﻟﺛﻼﺛﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻧﻪ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺳﺑﺔ ﻫﻭ‪. 720 :‬‬
‫‪720‬‬
‫= ) ‪   P (A‬‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ﻧﺟﺩ‪= 0, 72 :‬‬
‫‪1000‬‬

‫ﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ ﺛﺎﻧﻳﺔ‪) :‬ﺑﺎﺳﺗﻌﻣﺎﻝ ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻳﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺩّ(‬

‫ﻧﻌﺗﺑﺭ ﺍﻟﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ ‪ E ‬ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻧﺎﺻﺭ ‪ {a ; b ; c ; d ; e ; f ; g ; h ; i ; j} ‬ﺣﻳﺙ ﻳﺭﻣﺯ ﻛﻝ ﺣﺭﻑ ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﻧﻛﻬﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻛﻝ ﺍﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ ﻟﻧﻛﻬﺔ ﻣﻥ ﻗﺑﻝ ﺍﻷﺷﺧﺎﺹ ﺍﻟﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﺗﻘﺎﺑﻠﻪ ﻗﺎﺋﻣﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ‪ 3‬ﺣﺭﻭﻑ ﻣﻥ ﺑﻳﻥ ‪.10‬‬

‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﺍﺧﺗﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻧﻛﻬﺔ ‪ ، g‬ﻭﺍﻟﺛﺎﻧﻲ ﺍﺧﺗﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻧﻛﻬﺔ ‪ a ‬ﻭﺍﻟﺛﺎﻟﺙ ﺍﺧﺗﺎﺭ‬ ‫ﻣﺛﻼ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻣﺔ ‪ gag‬ﺗﻌﻧﻲ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺷﺧﺹ ّ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻧﻛﻬﺔ ‪. g‬‬

‫ﻣﻧﻪ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻣﻛﻧﺔ ﻫﻭ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺋﻡ ﻭﻫﻭ ‪.103‬‬

‫ﺑﻳﻧﻣﺎ ﻧﺟﺩ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺳﺑﺔ ﻻﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ ‪ 3‬ﻧﻛﻬﺎﺕ ﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﺔ ﻣﻥ ﺑﻳﻥ ‪ 10‬ﻣﻥ ﻗﺑﻝ ﺍﻷﺷﺧﺎﺹ ﺍﻟﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻫﻭ‬
‫ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺗﺭﺗﻳﺑﺎﺕ ﺫﺍﺕ ‪ 3‬ﻋﻧﺎﺻﺭ ﻣﻥ ﺑﻳﻥ ‪ 10‬ﻭﻫﻭ ‪. A103 = 720‬‬

‫‪720‬‬
‫= ) ‪. P (A‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻧﻪ ﻧﺟﺩ ‪= 0, 72‬‬
‫‪1000‬‬

‫‪ .2‬ﺗﻌﻳﻳﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻳﻡ ﺍﻟﻣﻣﻛﻧﺔ ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ‪  . X  ‬‬

‫‪11 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫‪720‬‬
‫= ) ‪  P ( X = 3) = P ( A‬‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‪= 0, 72 ،‬‬
‫ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﺳﺅﺍﻝ ّ‬
‫‪1000‬‬

‫‪ ‬ﺣﺳﺎﺏ )‪. P ( X = 1‬‬

‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ 10‬ﺇﻣﻛﺎﻧﻳﺎﺕ ﻻﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ ﻧﻛﻬﺔ ﺑﻳﻧﻣﺎ ﻟﻳﺱ ﻟﺑﻘﻳﺔ‬
‫ﻷﻥ ﻟﻠﺷﺧﺹ ّ‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺳﺑﺔ ﻫﻭ ‪ّ ،10 ´1´1‬‬
‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺷﺧﺻﻳﻥ ﺳﻭﻯ ﺍﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻭﻫﻭ ﻧﻔﺱ ﺍﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ ﻧﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﻧﻛﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﺍﺧﺗﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﺍﻟﺷﺧﺹ ّ‬
‫‪10‬‬
‫= )‪  P ( X = 1‬‬ ‫ﻣﻧﻪ ‪= 0, 01‬‬
‫‪1000‬‬

‫‪ ‬ﺣﺳﺎﺏ )‪  . P ( X = 2‬‬

‫ﻧﻌﻠﻡ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺣﺩﺍﺙ "‪ "X 3"، "X 2"،"X 1‬ﺗﺷﻛﻝ ﺗﺟﺯﺋﺔ ﻟﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻹﻣﻛﺎﻧﻳﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ﺇﺫﻥ ‪ P ( X = 1) + P ( X = 2) + P ( X = 3) = 1‬‬

‫)‪P ( X = 2) = 1 - P ( X = 1) - P ( X = 3‬‬ ‫ﻣﻧﻪ‬

‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ‪P ( X = 2) = 1 - 0, 01 - 0, 72 = 0, 27‬‬

‫ﻣﻼﺣﻅﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﻳﻣﻛﻧﻧﺎ ﺣﺳﺎﺏ )‪ P ( X = 2‬ﻣﺑﺎﺷﺭﺓ‪.‬‬

‫ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺳﺑﺔ ﻫﻭ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺋﻡ ﺫﺍﺕ ‪ 3‬ﻋﻧﺎﺻﺭ ﻣﻥ ﺑﻳﻥ ‪ 10‬ﺑﺣﻳﺙ ﻳﺗﻛﺭﺭ ﻓﻳﻬﺎ ﺣﺭﻑ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻭ ‪ 9‬ﺇﻣﻛﺎﻧﻳﺎﺕ ﻻﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺣﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺛﺎﻧﻲ‪ .‬ﻧﻌﻠﻡ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﻟﻠﺣﺭﻑ ﻏﻳﺭ‬ ‫ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ‪ 10‬ﺇﻣﻛﺎﻧﻳﺎﺕ ﻻﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺣﺭﻑ ّ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻛﺭﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻣﺔ ‪ 3‬ﻣﻭﺍﺿﻊ ﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﺋﻡ ﻫﻭ‪ 10  9  3  270 :‬‬
‫‪270‬‬
‫‪. P (X‬‬ ‫= )‪= 2‬‬ ‫‪= 0, 27‬‬ ‫ﻣﻧﻪ‬
‫‪1000‬‬

‫ﻣﻣﺎ ﺳﺑﻖ ﻳﻧﺗﺞ ﻗﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻣﻠﺧﺹ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺟﺩﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺍﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪X‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻉ ‪3‬‬

‫‪ 0,01 0,27 0,72‬ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ‬ ‫‪1‬‬

‫‪ ‬ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﻣﻝ ﺍﻟﺭﻳﺎﺿﻳﺎﺗﻲ ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ‪:X‬‬

‫‪E (X ) = å p i x i‬‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻣﺑﺎﺷﺭ ﻧﺟﺩ‪= 0, 01´1 + 0, 27 ´ 2 + 0, 72 ´ 3 = 2, 71 :‬‬
‫‪i‬‬

‫‪12 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫ﺳﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﻣﺗﻭﺳﻁ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻧﻛﻬﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﻳﺗﻡ ﺍﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﻣﻥ ﻗﺑﻝ ﺍﻷﺷﺧﺎﺹ ﺍﻟﺛﻼﺛﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﻔ ّ‬
‫ﻫﻭ ﻗﺭﻳﺏ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ ‪ .3‬ﺃﻱ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ ﺍﻷﻛﺛﺭ ﺣﻅﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺗﺣﻘﻖ ﻫﻲ ﺍﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ ‪ 3‬ﻧﻛﻬﺎﺕ ﻣﺗﻣﺎﻳﺯﺓ ﻣﺛﻧﻰ ﻣﺛﻧﻰ‪  .‬‬

‫ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ ‪) :8‬ﻗﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺑﺭﻧﻭﻟﻲ ـ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺛﻧﺎﺋﻲ(‬

‫‪ .1‬ﻳﺣﺗﻭﻱ ﻭﻋﺎء ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ 12‬ﻛﺭﺓ ‪ 4‬ﻣﻧﻬﺎ ﺣﻣﺭﺍء ﻭ‪ 4‬ﺧﺿﺭﺍء ﻭ‪ 4‬ﺑﻳﺿﺎء‪ ،‬ﻧﺳﺣﺏ ﻋﺷﻭﺍﺋﻳﺎ ﻭﻓﻲ ﺁﻥ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ‪ 5‬ﻛﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻭﻋﺎء‪ .‬ﻟﻳﻛﻥ ‪ X‬ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻳﺭﻓﻖ ﺑﻛﻝ ﺳﺣﺏ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻛﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺣﻣﺭﺍء‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺣﻭﺑﺔ‪  .‬‬
‫ﻋﻳّﻥ ﻗﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ‪  X‬ﻭﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﻷﻣﻝ ﺍﻟﺭﻳﺎﺿﻳﺎﺗﻲ ﻟﻪ‪ ،‬ﺛ ّﻡ ﺗﺭﺟﻡ ﺍﻟﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ‪  .‬‬
‫ﻣﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﺗﺗﺎﻟﻳﺔ ﺑﺣﻳﺙ ﻧﻌﻳﺩ ﺍﻟﻛﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺣﻭﺑﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ‬ ‫‪ .2‬ﻧﻛﺭﺭ ﻋﻣﻠﻳﺔ ﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺓ ﻣﻥ ﻧﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﻭﻋﺎء ‪ّ 5‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﻧﺗﺣﺻﻝ ﻓﻳﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻭﻋﺎء ﻗﺑﻝ ﺍﻟﺳﺣﺏ ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺍﻟﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﻳﻛﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ‪ Y‬ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻳﺣﺻﻲ ﻋﺩﺩ ّ‬
‫ﻛﺭﺓ ﺣﻣﺭﺍء‪  .‬‬
‫ﻋﻳّﻥ ﻗﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ ‪ Y‬ﻭﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﻷﻣﻝ ﺍﻟﺭﻳﺎﺿﻳﺎﺗﻲ ﻟﻪ‪ ،‬ﺛ ّﻡ ﺗﺭﺟﻡ ﺍﻟﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺣ ّﻝ‪:- 8 -‬‬

‫‪ .1‬ﺗﻌﻳﻳﻥ ﻗﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ ‪  . X‬‬

‫ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺿﺢ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻳﻡ ﺍﻟﻣﻣﻛﻧﺔ ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ ‪ X‬ﻫﻲ ‪  .4 ،3 ،2 ،1 ،0‬‬
‫÷‪æ12ö‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬ ‫÷ ‪çç‬‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻕ ﻻﺧﺗﺎﺭ ‪ 5‬ﻛﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﻥ ﺑﻳﻥ ‪ 12‬ﻛﺭﺓ ﻫﻭ‪:‬‬
‫÷‪çè 5 ÷ø‬‬

‫‪æ4ö‬‬
‫ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻕ‪ ‬ﻻﺧﺗﺎﺭ ‪ k‬ﻛﺭﺓ ﺣﻣﺭﺍء ﻣﻊ ‪ (k {0 ; 1 ; 2 ; 3 ; 4}) ‬ﻣﻥ ﺑﻳﻥ ‪ 4‬ﻛﺭﺍﺕ ﻫﻭ‪  ççç ÷÷÷ :‬‬
‫÷‪çèk ø‬‬

‫÷‪æ 8 ö‬‬
‫‪çç‬‬ ‫÷‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻕ‪ ‬ﻻﺧﺗﺎﺭ ‪ 5-k‬ﻛﺭﺓ ﻟﻳﺳﺕ ﺣﻣﺭﺍء ﻣﻥ ﺑﻳﻥ ‪ 8‬ﻛﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺑﺎﻗﻳﺔ ﻫﻭ‪:‬‬
‫‪çè5 - k ÷÷ø‬‬

‫‪æ 4 öæ‬‬ ‫‪ö‬‬

‫÷÷ ‪çç ÷÷çç 8‬‬
‫÷÷ ‪çk ÷÷ç5 - k‬‬
‫ﺃﺟﻝ }‪. k {0 ; 1 ; 2 ; 3 ; 4‬‬ ‫‪ P (X = k ) = è øèæ ö ø‬ﻣﻥ‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻧﻪ ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ‪:‬‬
‫÷÷‪çç12‬‬
‫‪çè 5 ÷÷ø‬‬

‫ﺑﺎﻟﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻣﺑﺎﺷﺭ ﻧﺟﺩ‪:‬‬

‫‪X‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻉ‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪35‬‬ ‫‪42‬‬ ‫‪14‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪99‬‬ ‫‪99‬‬ ‫‪99‬‬ ‫‪99‬‬ ‫‪99‬‬

‫‪165 5‬‬
‫= ‪E (X ) = å pi x i‬‬ ‫‪= . X‬‬ ‫ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﻣﻝ ﺍﻟﺭﻳﺎﺿﻳﺎﺗﻲ ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ‬
‫‪i‬‬ ‫‪99 3‬‬

‫‪13 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫ﺗﺭﺟﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ‪ :‬ﻣﻌﺩﻝ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻛﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺣﻣﺭﺍء ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﻧﺣﺻﻝ ﻋﻠﻳﻬﺎ ﺑﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ ﻫﻭ )‪  . 5 ( 1, 67‬‬
‫‪3‬‬

‫‪ .2‬ﻟﺗﻛﻥ ‪ E‬ﺍﻟﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ‪  :‬‬

‫» ﻧﺳﺣﺏ ﻋﺷﻭﺍﺋﻳﺎ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﻋﺎء ﻛﺭﺓ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻹﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻭﻧﻧﻅﺭ ﺇﻥ ﻛﺎﻧﺕ ﺣﻣﺭﺍء «‬
‫ﻟﻬﺫﻩ ﻟﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻳﺔ ﻣﺧﺭﺟﻳﻥ ﻫﻣﺎ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺣﺻﻭﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﺭﺓ ﺣﻣﺭﺍء )ﻧﺟﺎﺡ( ﺃﻭ ﻻ )ﻓﺷﻝ(‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫‪4 1‬‬
‫=‪ p‬‬ ‫=‬ ‫ﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ ﺑﺭﻧﻭﻟﻲ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻳﻁ ‪ P‬ﺣﻳﺙ‬
‫‪12 3‬‬

‫ﻣﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻠﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺑﻌﺿﻬﺎ‪.‬‬

‫ﻧﻛﺭﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ ‪ّ 5‬‬

‫ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ‪ Y‬ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻳﺣﺻﻲ ﻋﺩﺩ ّ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﻧﺗﺣﺻﻝ ﻓﻳﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﺭﺓ ﺣﻣﺭﺍء‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﻥ ﻓﻬﻭ‬
‫ﻳﺣﺻﻲ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻧﺟﺎﺣﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻣﻛﻧﺔ ﻭﻣﻧﻪ ) ‪  ( 0 £Y £ 5‬‬

‫ﻭ ‪.p=1‬‬ ‫‪n =5‬‬ ‫ﻧﺳﺗﻧﺗﺞ ﻣﻣﺎ ﺳﺑﻖ ّ‬

‫ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ‪ ‬ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ‪ Y‬ﻳﺗﺑﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺛﻧﺎﺋﻲ ﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻳﻁﻳﻥ‬
‫‪3‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫ﻣﻧﻪ ﻳﻧﺗﺞ‪ Y  B (5; ) :‬‬
‫‪3‬‬

‫‪æ 5 ö÷æ 1 ök æ 2 ö5-k‬‬

‫ﻣﻥ ﺃﺟﻝ }‪.k {0 ; 1 ; 2 ; 3 ; 4 ; 5‬‬ ‫÷÷÷ ‪p (Y = k ) = çç ÷÷çç ÷÷÷ çç‬‬ ‫ﻭ‬
‫‪çèk ø÷çè 3 ø çè 3 ø‬‬

‫ﺑﺎﺳﺗﻌﻣﺎﻝ ﺣﺎﺳﺑﺔ‪ ،‬ﻧﺗﺣﺻﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ ﺃﺩﻧﺎﻩ ﺑﺗﻘﺭﻳﺏ ﻗﺩﺭﻩ ‪ 10-3‬ﺑﺎﻟﻧﻘﺻﺎﻥ‪.‬‬

‫‪Y‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬

‫‪5‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻉ‬
‫‪ 0,132‬ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ‬ ‫‪0,329 0,329 0,165 0, 041 0,004‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬

‫‪1 5‬‬
‫= ´‪E (Y ) = np = 5‬‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻣﻝ ﺍﻟﺭﻳﺎﺿﻳﺎﺗﻲ ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ‪ Y‬ﻫﻭ‪:‬‬
‫‪3 3‬‬

‫ﻣﻌﺩﻝ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻛﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺣﻣﺭﺍء ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﻧﺗﺣﺻﻝ ﻋﻠﻳﻬﺎ ﺑﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺳﺣﺏ )‪ 5 ( 1, 67‬ﻫﻭ‪  .‬‬
‫‪3‬‬

‫ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ ‪:9‬‬

‫ﺑﺎﻉ ﻣﺣﻝ ﻟﻸﺟﻬﺯﺓ ﺍﻟﻛﻬﺭﻭﻣﻧﺯﻟﻳﺔ ‪ 4‬ﺛﻼّﺟﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻳﻭﻡ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻣﺿﻣﻭﻧﺔ ﻟﻣﺩّﺓ ‪ 5‬ﺳﻧﻭﺍﺕ‪ .‬ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻻ ﺗﺗﻌﻁﻝ‬
‫ﻛﻝ ﺛﻼﺟﺔ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺗﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺿﻣﺎﻥ ﻫﻭ ‪. 0,9‬‬

‫‪ .1‬ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻻ ﺗﺗﻌﻁﻝ ﺍﻟﺛﻼﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﻌﺔ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺗﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺿﻣﺎﻥ‪  .‬‬

‫‪ .2‬ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ّ‬
‫ﺗﻌﻁﻝ ﺛﻼﺟﺗﺎﻥ ﻓﻘﻁ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺗﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺿﻣﺎﻥ‪  .‬‬

‫‪14 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫ﺣ ّﻝ‪:- 9 -‬‬

‫‪ .1‬ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻻ ﺗﺗﻌﻁﻝ ﺍﻟﺛﻼﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﻌﺔ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺗﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺿﻣﺎﻥ‪  .‬‬

‫ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻻ ﺗﺗﻌﻁﻝ ﻛﻝ ﺛﻼﺟﺔ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺗﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺿﻣﺎﻥ ﻫﻭ ‪. 0,9‬‬

‫ﻧﻌﺗﺑﺭ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺗﻌﻁﻝ ﺛﻼﺟﺔ )ﻣﺧﺭﺝ ﻟﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ( ﻭﺗﻌﻁﻠﻬﺎ )ﻣﺧﺭﺝ ﺛﺎﻥ ﻟﻧﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ( ﻓﺈﺫﻥ ﻧﺣﻥ ﻫﻧﺎ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ‬
‫ﺑﺭﻧﻭﻟﻲ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻳﻁ ‪. p = 0,9‬‬

‫ﻣﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻳﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻠﻭﻡ ّ‬

‫ﺃﻥ ﺗﻌﻁﻝ ﺃﻱ ﺛﻼﺟﺔ ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻝ ﻋﻥ ﺗﻌﻁﻝ ﺃﺧﺭﻯ‪ .‬ﻟﺫﻟﻙ ﻧﻛﺭﺭ ﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ ﺑﺭﻧﻭﻟﻲ ‪ّ 4‬‬
‫ﻋﻧﺩﻫﺎ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻻ ﺗﺗﻌﻁﻝ ‪ k‬ﺛﻼﺟﺔ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺗﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺿﻣﺎﻥ ﻫﻭ‪:‬‬
‫‪æ 4ö‬‬
‫)‪P (X = k ) = çç ÷÷÷(0,9) (0,1‬‬
‫‪k‬‬ ‫‪4-k‬‬

‫‪çèk ÷ø‬‬

‫ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻻ ﺗﺗﻌﻁﻝ ﺍﻟﺛﻼﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺭﺑﻌﺔ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺗﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺿﻣﺎﻥ ﻫﻭ‪:‬‬

‫‪æ4ö‬‬
‫‪  P (X = 4) = çç ÷÷÷(0,9) (0,1) = (0,9)  0,6561‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬

‫‪çè4÷ø‬‬

‫ّ‬
‫ﺗﺗﻌﻁﻝ ﺛﻼﺟﺗﺎﻥ ﻓﻘﻁ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺗﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺿﻣﺎﻥ‪  .‬‬ ‫‪ .2‬ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺗﺗﻌﻁﻝ ﺛﻼﺟﺗﺎﻥ ﻓﻘﻁ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺗﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺿﻣﺎﻥ ﻳﺳﺎﻭﻱ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻻ ﺗﺗﻌﻁﻝ ﺛﻼﺟﺗﺎﻥ ﺧﻼﻝ ﻓﺗﺭﺓ‬ ‫ّ‬ ‫ّ‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺿﻣﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻳﻁﺎﺑﻖ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﻓﻳﻬﺎ ‪ k = 2‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﺎﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻣﻁﻠﻭﺏ ﻫﻭ‪  P (X = 2) :‬‬
‫‪æ4ö‬‬
‫ﻭﻣﻧﻪ ﻧﺟﺩ‪  .  P (X = 2) = çç ÷÷÷(0,9) (0,1) = 6 ´(0,09)  0,0486 :‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬

‫÷‪çè2ø‬‬

‫ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ ‪) :10‬ﺍﻟﻌ ّﺩ ـ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺛﻧﺎﺋﻲ(‬

‫ﻳﻘﻭﻡ ُﻣ َﻣ ْ ّﻭﻥ ﺑﺑﻳﻊ ﻧﻭﻋﻳﻥ ﺃﺳﻼﻙ‪ C1‬ﻭ‪ ،C2‬ﺑﺣﻳﺙ ﺗﺗﺿﻣﻥ ﻛﻝ ﺷﺣﻧﺔ ﻳﺑﻳﻌﻬﺎ ‪ 20%‬ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ ‪C1‬‬
‫ﻭ‪ 80% ‬ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ ‪.C2‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺟﺯءﺍﻥ )ﺃ( ﻭ)ﺏ( ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻼﻥ ﻋﻥ ﺑﻌﺿﻬﻣﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺟﺯء )ﺃ(‪:‬‬
‫ﻻ ﻳﻁﻠﺏ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺟﺯء ﺃﻱ ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺗﻘﺭﻳﺑﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﺗﻛﻭﻥ ‪ 50‬ﺳﻠﻛﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﺄﺧﺫ ﻋﺷﻭﺍﺋﻳﺎ ‪ 4‬ﺃﺳﻼﻙ ﻣﻥ ﺷﺣﻧﺔ ّ‬

‫‪ (1‬ﺃﻋﻁ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺗﺣﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ‪ » : E‬ﻧﺗﺣﺻﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ 4‬ﺃﺳﻼﻙ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ ‪  « C1‬‬

‫‪15 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫‪ (2‬ﺃﻋﻁ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺗﺣﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ‪  :F‬‬
‫» ﻧﺗﺣﺻﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻠﻙ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ ‪ C1‬ﻭ ‪ 3‬ﺃﺳﻼﻙ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ ‪  « C2‬‬

‫‪ (3‬ﺃﻋﻁ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺗﺣﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ‪ » :G ‬ﻧﺗﺣﺻﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻠﻙ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻝ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ ‪  « C1‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺟﺯء )ﺏ(‪:‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺟﺯء ﻧﺄﺧﺫ ﻋﺷﻭﺍﺋﻳﺎ ﺳﻠﻛﺎ ﻭﺍﺣﺩﺍ ﻣﻥ ﺷﺣﻧﺔ ﻭﻧﺳﺟﻝ ﻧﻭﻋﻪ ﺛ ّﻡ ﻧﻌﻳﺩﻩ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺷﺣﻧﺔ‪ .‬ﻧﺭﻣﺯ ﻟﻬﺫﻩ‬
‫ﻣﺭﺓ‪ .‬ﻟﻳﻛﻥ ‪ X‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻷﺳﻼﻙ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ ‪ C1‬ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﻧﺗﺣﺻﻝ ﻋﻠﻳﻬﺎ ﺑﻬﺫﻩ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺭﻣﺯ ‪ E‬ﻭﻧﻛﺭﺭﻫﺎ ‪ّ n ‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻥ ‪ . n = 4‬ﺗﻌﻁﻰ ﺍﻟﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ ﺑﺗﻘﺭﻳﺏ ﻗﺩﺭﻩ ‪ 10-4‬ﺑﺎﻟﻧﻘﺻﺎﻥ‪  .‬‬‫‪ (1‬ﻧﻔﺭﺽ ّ‬
‫ﺃ( ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺻﻭﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻠﻛﻳﻥ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ ‪  .C1‬‬
‫ﺏ( ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺻﻭﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻠﻙ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻝ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ ‪  .C1‬‬
‫ﺝ( ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﻷﻣﻝ ﺍﻟﺭﻳﺎﺿﻳﺎﺗﻲ )‪  .E(X‬‬
‫‪ (2‬ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺳﺅﺍﻝ ‪ n ‬ﻣﺟﻬﻭﻝ‪  .‬‬
‫ﺃ( ﻋﺑّﺭ ﻋﻥ )‪ P (X  1‬ﺑﺩﻻﻟﺔ ‪  .n‬‬
‫ﻣﺭﺓ ﻳﺟﺏ ﺗﻛﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ ‪ E‬ﺣﺗﻰ ﻧﺳﺗﻁﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻝ ﺃﻧّﻧﺎ ﻣﺗﺄﻛﺩﻳﻥ ﺑﻧﺳﺑﺔ‪ 90% ‬ﻣﻥ ﺃﻧّﻧﺎ‬ ‫ﺏ( ﻛﻡ ﻣﻥ ّ‬
‫ﺳﻧﺣﺻﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻠﻙ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻝ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ ‪ C1‬؟ ‪ ‬‬

‫‪ (1‬ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺳﺅﺍﻝ ‪ n ‬ﻣﺟﻬﻭﻝ‪  .‬‬

‫ﺃ( ﻧﻌﺑّﺭ ﻋﻥ )‪ P (X  1‬ﺑﺩﻻﻟﺔ ‪  .n‬‬
‫ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ﺣﺳﺏ ﻣﺎ ﺳﺑﻖ‪  . P (X  1) = 1- P (X = 0) = 1- 0,8n :‬‬

‫ﺏ( ﺍﻟﺑﺣﺙ ﻋﻥ ‪ n‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﺗﻛﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ ‪ E‬ﺣﺗﻰ ﻧﺳﺗﻁﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻝ ﺑﺄﻧّﻧﺎ ﻣﺗﺄﻛﺩﻳﻥ ﺑﻧﺳﺑﺔ‪ 90% ‬ﻣﻥ‬
‫ﺃﻧّﻧﺎ ﺳﻧﺣﺻﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻠﻙ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻝ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ ‪ C1‬؟ ‪ ‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺑﺣﺙ ‪ n‬ﻋﻥ ﻳﻌﻭﺩ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺣﻝ ﺍﻟﻣﺗﺭﺍﺟﺣﺔ ‪. P ( X  1)  0, 9‬‬

‫ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ‪P ( X  1)  0, 9 :‬‬

‫ﻣﻧﻪ ‪ 1- 0,8n ³ 0,9‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ‪  0,8n £ 0,1‬‬

‫ﺑﺗﻁﺑﻳﻖ ﺧﻭﺍﺹ ﺍﻟﻠﻭﻏﺎﺭﻳﺗﻡ ﻧﺟﺩ‪n ln 0,8 £ ln 0,1 :‬‬

‫‪ln 0,1‬‬
‫‪n³‬‬ ‫ﻭﺣﻳﺙ ‪ ln 0,8 < 0‬ﻧﺟﺩ‬
‫‪ln 0,8‬‬

‫‪16 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫‪ln 0,1‬‬
‫ﺑﺗﻘﺭﻳﺏ ﻗﺩﺭﻩ ‪ 10‐2‬ﺑﺎﻟﻧﻘﺻﺎﻥ ﻭ ‪ n‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﻁﺑﻳﻌﻲ‪ّ ،‬‬
‫ﻓﺈﻥ ‪. n  11‬‬ ‫ﻭﺑﻣﺎ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ‪ 10,32‬‬
‫‪ln 0,8‬‬

‫ﻣﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻝ ﻟﻛﻲ ﻧﺳﺗﻁﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻝ ﺑﺄﻧّﻧﺎ ﻣﺗﺄﻛﺩﻳﻥ ﺑﻧﺳﺑﺔ‪90% ‬‬

‫ﻧﺳﺗﻧﺗﺞ ﺃﻧّﻪ ﻧﺣﺗﺎﺝ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺗﻛﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ ‪ّ 11‬‬
‫ﻣﻥ ﺃﻧّﻧﺎ ﺳﻧﺣﺻﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻠﻙ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻝ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ ‪  .C1‬‬

‫ﺣ ّﻝ‪:- 10 -‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺟﺯء )ﺃ(‪:‬‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻷﺳﻼﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺷﺣﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻧﻳﺔ ﻫﻭ ‪ 50‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺗﺗﺿﻣﻥ ‪ 20%‬ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ ‪ C1‬ﻭ‪ 80% ‬ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ‬ ‫ﺑﻣﺎ ّ‬
‫ﻣﻛﻭﻥ ﻣﻥ ‪ 10‬ﺃﺳﻼﻙ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ ‪ C1‬ﻭ ‪ 40‬ﺳﻠﻛﺎ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ ‪ .C2‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ﺗﻭﺟﺩ‬ ‫‪ّ ،C2‬‬
‫ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺧﻳﺭﺓ ّ‬
‫÷‪æ50ö‬‬
‫‪ ççç‬ﻻﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ ‪ 4‬ﺃﺳﻼﻙ ﻣﻥ ﺑﻳﻥ ‪.50‬‬ ‫÷‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ‬
‫‪è 4 ÷÷ø‬‬

‫÷‪æ10ö‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬ ‫÷ ‪çç‬‬ ‫‪ (1‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻕ ﻻﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ ‪ 4‬ﺃﺳﻼﻙ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ ‪ C1‬ﻫﻭ‪:‬‬
‫‪çè 4 ÷÷ø‬‬
‫÷‪æ10ö‬‬
‫÷ ‪çç‬‬
‫÷‪çè 4 ÷ø‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫= )‪. P (E‬‬
‫‪æ50÷ö 3290‬‬
‫=‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ﻧﺟﺩ‪:‬‬
‫÷ ‪çç‬‬
‫‪çè 4 ÷÷ø‬‬

‫÷‪æ10ö‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬ ‫‪çç ÷ = 10‬‬ ‫‪ (2‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻕ ﻻﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ ﺳﻠﻙ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ ‪ C1‬ﻫﻭ‪:‬‬
‫÷‪çè 1 ÷ø‬‬
‫÷‪æ40ö‬‬
‫÷ ‪çç‬‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻕ ﻻﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ ‪ 3‬ﺃﺳﻼﻙ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ ‪ C2‬ﻫﻭ‪:‬‬
‫÷‪çè 3 ÷ø‬‬

‫‪æ40ö‬‬
‫÷÷÷ ‪10´çç‬‬
‫‪çè 3 ÷ø 988‬‬
‫= )‪P (F‬‬
‫÷‪æ50ö‬‬
‫=‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻧﻪ ﻧﺟﺩ‪:‬‬
‫÷ ‪çç‬‬ ‫‪2303‬‬
‫÷‬
‫÷‪èç 4 ø‬‬

‫‪ (3‬ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ‪ » : G‬ﻻ ﻧﺗﺣﺻﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻱ ﺳﻠﻙ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ ‪ «C1‬ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ﺍﻟﻧﺎﻓﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ‪  .G‬‬
‫ﻣﻧﻪ ﻳﻧﺗﺞ ‪ » : G‬ﻧﺗﺣﺻﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ 4‬ﺃﺳﻼﻙ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ ‪«C2‬‬

‫÷‪æ40ö‬‬
‫÷ ‪çç‬‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻕ ﻻﺧﺗﻳﺎﺭ ‪ 4‬ﺃﺳﻼﻙ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ ‪ C2‬ﻫﻭ‪:‬‬
‫‪çè 4 ÷÷ø‬‬

‫‪17 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫÷‪æ40ö‬‬
‫÷ ‪çç‬‬
‫‪çè 4 ÷÷ø‬‬ ‫‪13891‬‬
‫‪. P(G)=1- P(G)=1- æ‬‬ ‫‪ö‬‬
‫=‬ ‫ﻣﻧﻪ ﻧﺟﺩ‪:‬‬
‫÷÷‪çç50‬‬ ‫‪23030‬‬
‫‪çè 4 ÷÷ø‬‬

‫ﺟﺯء )ﺏ(‪:‬‬
‫‪ (2‬ﻧﻔﺭﺽ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ‪ . n = 4‬ﺗﻌﻁﻰ ﺍﻟﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ ﺑﺗﻘﺭﻳﺏ ﻗﺩﺭﻩ ‪ 10-4‬ﺑﺎﻟﻧﻘﺻﺎﻥ‪  .‬‬
‫ﺃ( ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺻﻭﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻠﻛﻳﻥ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ ‪  .C1‬‬
‫ﻣﺭﺓ ﻳﺗﻡ ﺑﺻﻔﺔ ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻠﺔ ﻭﻓﻲ ﻧﻔﺱ‬ ‫ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺳﺣﺏ ﻳﺗﻡ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻹﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻗﺑﻝ ﺍﻟﺳﺣﺏ ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺍﻟﻲ‪ّ ،‬‬
‫ﻓﺈﻥ ﺗﻛﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ ّ‬ ‫ﺑﻣﺎ ّ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺷﺭﻭﻁ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻭ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺳﻣﺢ ﻟﻧﺎ ﻣﻣﺎ ﻳﺳﻣﺢ ﻟﻧﺎ ﺑﺈﺩﺭﺍﺝ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺛﻧﺎﺋﻲ‪.‬‬

‫ﻧﻌﻠﻡ ﺃﻳﺿﺎ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻁﻳﺎﺕ ّ‬

‫ﺃﻥ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺻﻭﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻠﻙ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ ‪ C1‬ﻫﻭ ‪ . 0,2‬ﺇﺫﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ‬
‫‪ X‬ﻳﺗﺑﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺛﻧﺎﺋﻲ ﺫﻭ ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻳﻁﻳﻥ ‪ n‬ﻭ ‪. p = 0,2‬‬

‫‪æn ö‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬ ‫‪k 5‬‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫‪k Î‬‬ ‫ﺣﻳﺙ‬ ‫‪P (X = k ) = çç ÷÷÷ 0, 2k ´ 0,8n -k‬‬ ‫ﻣﻧﻪ ﺣﺳﺏ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ‪:‬‬
‫‪çèk ÷ø‬‬

‫‪æ4ö‬‬
‫ﻧﻌﻭﺽ ‪ n = 4‬ﻭ ‪ k = 2‬ﻓﻧﺟﺩ‪  P (X = 2) = ççç ÷÷÷ 0, 22 ´0,82 = 0,1536 :‬‬
‫‪çè2÷ø‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﻥ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺻﻭﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻠﻛﻳﻥ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ ‪ C1‬ﻫﻭ ‪. P (X = 2) = 0,1536‬‬

‫ﺏ( ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺻﻭﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻠﻙ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻝ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ ‪  .C1‬‬
‫‪. P (X‬‬ ‫‪ 1) = 1- P ( X = 0) = 1- 0,84 = 0,5904‬‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻣﻁﻠﻭﺏ ﻫﻭ‪:‬‬

‫ﺝ( ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﻷﻣﻝ ﺍﻟﺭﻳﺎﺿﻳﺎﺗﻲ )‪  .E(X‬‬

‫ﻳﻌﻁﻰ ﺍﻷﻣﻝ ﺍﻟﺭﻳﺎﺿﻳﺎﺗﻲ )‪ E(X‬ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ ‪ X‬ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻳﺗﺑﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺛﻧﺎﺋﻲ ﺫﻭ ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻳﻁﻳﻥ‬

‫‪ n = 4‬ﻭ ‪ p = 0,2‬ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‪ E (X ) = n ´ p :‬ﻣﻧﻪ ‪  . E (X ) = 0,8‬‬

‫ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ ‪:11‬‬

‫ﻧﺳﺣﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺗﻭﺍﻟﻲ ‪ m‬ﻛﺭﺓ ﻣﻥ ﻭﻋﺎء ﻳﺣﺗﻭﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ N‬ﻛﺭﺓ ﻣﺭﻗﻣﺔ ﻣﻥ ‪ 1‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ ، N‬ﺑﺣﻳﺙ ﻧﻌﻳﺩ ﻓﻲ ﻛﻝ‬
‫ﻣﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻛﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺣﻭﺑﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﻋﺎء ﻗﺑﻝ ﺍﻟﺳﺣﺏ ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺍﻟﻲ‪.‬‬

‫‪18 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫ﻣﺭﺓ ﻧﺗﺣﺻﻝ ﻓﻳﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﺭﺓ ﺗﺣﻣﻝ ﺭﻗﻣﺎ ﻳﺳﺎﻭﻱ ﺍﻟﺭﺗﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﺳﺣﺑﺕ ﻓﻳﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺑﻳﻧﻣﺎ‬
‫ﻧﺭﺑﺢ ﺩﻳﻧﺎﺭﺍ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻓﻲ ﻛﻝ ّ‬
‫ﻻ ﻧﺭﺑﺢ ﺷﻳﺋﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﺭﻯ‪  .‬‬

‫ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺻﻭﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﺑﺢ ﻳﺳﺎﻭﻱ ‪ K‬ﺩﻳﻧﺎﺭﺍ؟‬

‫ﺣ ّﻝ‪: - 11 -‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫=‪.p‬‬ ‫ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺻﻭﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﺭﺓ ﺭﺍﺑﺣﺔ ﻫﻭ‬
‫‪N‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪  . 1- p = 1-‬‬ ‫ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺻﻭﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﺭﺓ ﻏﻳﺭ ﺭﺍﺑﺣﺔ ﻫﻭ‬
‫‪N‬‬

‫ﻣﺭﺓ‪ّ ،‬‬
‫ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ ﺗﻛﻭﻥ‬ ‫ﺑﻣﺎ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺳﺣﺏ ﻳﺗ ّﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺗﻭﺍﻟﻲ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻹﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻗﺑﻝ ﺍﻟﺳﺣﺏ ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺍﻟﻲ ﻭﻧﻛﺭﺭﻩ ‪ّ   m‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪. B (m ,‬‬ ‫ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻠﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺑﻌﺿﻬﺎ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ﻧﺳﺗﻧﺗﺞ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ ﺗﺗﺑﻊ ﻗﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺑﺭﻧﻭﻟﻲ )‬
‫‪N‬‬

‫ﻧﻌﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ ‪ X‬ﻟﺑﺭﻧﻭﻟﻲ )ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻳﺣﺻﻲ ﻋﺩﺩ ّ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﻧﺗﺣﺻﻝ ﻓﻳﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﺭﺓ ﺭﺍﺑﺣﺔ(‬ ‫ّ‬
‫‪m -k‬‬
‫‪æ m öæ 1‬‬
‫‪÷÷ö‬‬ ‫‪æ‬‬ ‫‪÷÷ö‬‬
‫‪k‬‬

‫‪ ‬‬ ‫‪. p (X = k ) = ççç ÷÷÷÷ççç‬‬ ‫‪çç1- 1‬‬ ‫ﺇﺫﻥ ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ‬

‫‪è k øè N‬‬ ‫÷‪ø‬‬ ‫‪èç N‬‬ ‫÷‪ø‬‬

‫ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ ‪:12‬‬

‫ﻳﺣﺗﻭﻱ ﻭﻋﺎء ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ 8‬ﻛﺭﺍﺕ ﺑﻳﺿﺎء ﻭ ‪ 4‬ﻛﺭﺍﺕ ﺳﻭﺩﺍء ﻭ ‪ 3‬ﻛﺭﺍﺕ ﺣﻣﺭﺍء‪ .‬ﻧﺳﺣﺏ ﻋﺷﻭﺍﺋﻳﺎ ‪3‬‬
‫ﻛﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻭﻋﺎء‪ .‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺻﻭﻝ‪:‬‬

‫‪ .1‬ﻛﺭﺓ ﺑﻳﺿﺎء ﻭﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﺣﻣﺭﺍﻭﻳﻥ‪  .‬‬

‫‪ .2‬ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﺳﻭﺩﺍﻭﻳﻥ‪  .‬‬
‫‪ .3‬ﻛﺭﺓ ﺑﻳﺿﺎء ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻝ‪  .‬‬
‫‪ .4‬ﺛﻼﺙ ﻛﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﻥ ﻧﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﻠﻭﻥ‪  .‬‬

‫‪19 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫ﺣ ّﻝ ‪:- 12-‬‬

‫‪æ15ö‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬ ‫‪ .1‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻣﻛﻧﺔ ﻟﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ ﻫﻭ ‪. ççç ÷÷÷ = 455‬‬
‫‪è 3 ÷ø‬‬

‫‪24‬‬ ‫‪æ8ö æ3ö‬‬

‫= ‪. p1‬‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺳﺑﺔ ﻫﻭ ‪ ççç ÷÷÷´ççç ÷÷÷ = 24‬ﻣﻨﻪ‪،‬‬
‫‪455‬‬ ‫‪è1÷ø è2÷ø‬‬

‫‪66‬‬ ‫‪æ4ö æ11ö‬‬

‫= ‪  . p2‬‬ ‫‪ .2‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺳﺑﺔ ﻫﻭ ‪ ççç ÷÷÷´ççç ÷÷÷ = 66‬ﻣﻨﻪ‪،‬‬
‫‪455‬‬ ‫÷‪è2÷ø è 1 ø‬‬

‫‪ .3‬ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ﺍﻟﻧﺎﻓﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ‪ '' : A‬ﺛﻼﺙ ﻛﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﻥ ﻧﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﻠﻭﻥ '' ‪ ‬‬
‫ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ‪ '' : A‬ﻻ ﻧﺗﺣﺻﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻱ ﻛﺭﺓ ﺑﻳﺿﺎء ''‬

‫ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ‪:‬‬

‫÷‪æ9ö‬‬
‫÷ ‪çç‬‬
‫÷‪çè3÷ø‬‬ ‫‪84‬‬
‫= ) ‪p (A‬‬ ‫=‬
‫‪455‬‬ ‫‪455‬‬

‫‪84‬‬ ‫‪371‬‬
‫‪. p (A ) = 1 - p (A ) = 1 -‬‬ ‫=‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻨﻪ‬
‫‪455 455‬‬

‫‪61‬‬ ‫‪æ8ö æ4ö æ3ö‬‬

‫= ‪  . p4‬‬ ‫‪ .4‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺳﺑﺔ ﻫﻭ ‪ ، çç ÷÷÷ + çç ÷÷÷ + çç ÷÷÷ = 56 + 4 + 1 = 61‬ﻭﻣﻨﻪ‬
‫‪455‬‬ ‫‪çè3ø÷ èç3ø÷ èç3÷ø‬‬

‫ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ ‪) :13‬ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺷﺭﻁﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻛﻠﻳﺔ(‬

‫ﻳﺗﻛﻭﻥ ﺗﻼﻣﻳﺫ ﺛﺎﻧﻭﻳﺔ ﻣﻥ ‪ 48%‬ﺃﻭﻻﺩ ﻭ‪ 52% ‬ﺑﻧﺎﺕ‪ 85% .‬ﻣﻥ ﺍﻷﻭﻻﺩ ﻳﻧﺗﻣﻭﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻧﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻡ ﺍﻵﻟﻲ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﺛﺎﻧﻭﻳﺔ ﻭ ‪ 68%‬ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﺑﻧﺎﺕ ﻳﻧﺗﻣﻳﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻧﺎﺩﻱ ﺃﻳﺿﺎ‪ .‬ﻧﺧﺗﺎﺭ ﺗﻠﻣﻳﺫﺍ ﻣﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺛﺎﻧﻭﻳﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪ .1‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻧﺗﻣﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺗﻠﻣﻳﺫ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻧﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻡ ﺍﻵﻟﻲ؟ ‪ ‬‬
‫‪ .2‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﺗﻠﻣﻳﺫ ﻣﻥ ﻧﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻡ ﺍﻵﻟﻲ ﻭﻟﺩ؟ ‪ ‬‬
‫ﺣ ّﻝ‪: - 13 -‬‬

‫‪ .1‬ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻧﺗﻣﻲ ﺗﻠﻣﻳﺫ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻣﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺛﺎﻧﻭﻳﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻧﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻡ ﺍﻵﻟﻲ‪  .‬‬
‫ﻧﻌﺭﻑ ﺍﻷﺣﺩﺍﺙ ﺍﻵﺗﻳﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ّ‬
‫‪ » : G‬ﺍﻟﺗﻠﻣﻳﺫ ﺍﻟﻣﺧﺗﺎﺭ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﺛﺎﻧﻭﻳﺔ ﻫﻭ ﻭﻟﺩ«‬
‫‪20 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫‪» : F‬ﺍﻟﺗﻠﻣﻳﺫ ﺍﻟﻣﺧﺗﺎﺭ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﺛﺎﻧﻭﻳﺔ ﻫﻭ ﺑﻧﺕ«‬

‫‪» : I‬ﺍﻟﺗﻠﻣﻳﺫ ﺍﻟﻣﺧﺗﺎﺭ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﺛﺎﻧﻭﻳﺔ ﻳﻧﺗﻣﻲ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻧﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻡ ﺍﻵﻟﻲ«‬

‫ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ﺇﺫﻥ‪:‬‬
‫‪p (G ) = 0, 48‬‬ ‫‪p (F ) = 0,52‬‬
‫‪pG (I ) = 0,85‬‬ ‫‪p F (I ) = 0, 68‬‬
‫‪pG (I ) = 0,15‬‬ ‫‪p F (I ) = 0,32‬‬

‫ﻭﺑﺗﻁﺑﻳﻖ ﻗﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻛﻠﻳﺔ ﻳﻧﺗﺞ‪:‬‬

‫) ‪p (I ) = p (I Ç G ) + p (I Ç F‬‬
‫) ‪= p (G ). pG (I ) + p (F ). p F (I‬‬
‫‪= 0, 48´0,85 + 0,52´0, 68 = 0, 7616‬‬

‫‪ .2‬ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﺗﻠﻣﻳﺫ ﻣﻥ ﻧﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻡ ﺍﻵﻟﻲ ﻭﻟﺩ‪.‬‬

‫) ‪p (G Ç I‬‬ ‫) ‪p (G Ç I‬‬
‫= ) ‪pG (I‬‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫= ) ‪p I (G‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻠﻡ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ‬
‫) ‪p (G‬‬ ‫) ‪p (I‬‬

‫ﻣﻧﻪ ) ‪p (G Ç I ) = p (G )´ pG (I ) = p (I )´ p I (G‬‬

‫) ‪p (G ). pG (I‬‬
‫= ) ‪(1)....... p I (G‬‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ﻳﻧﺗﺞ‬
‫) ‪p (I‬‬

‫ﻭﺣﺳﺏ ﻗﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻛﻠﻳﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺟﻭﺍﺏ ﺍﻟﺳﺅﺍﻝ ‪ 1‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﻌﻭﻳﺽ‬

‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ‪ 1‬ﻧﺟﺩ‪ :‬‬
‫) ‪p (G ). pG (I‬‬
‫= ) ‪p I (G‬‬
‫) ‪p (G ). pG (I ) + p (F ). p F (I‬‬
‫‪0, 48´ 0,85‬‬ ‫‪0, 408‬‬
‫=‬ ‫=‬ ‫‪» 0,536‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬ ‫‪0, 48´ 0,85 + 0,52´ 0, 68 0, 7616‬‬

‫ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ ‪:14‬‬

‫ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻣﻁﺭ ﻏﺩﺍ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺃﻣﻁﺭﺕ ﺍﻟﻳﻭﻡ ﻫﻭ ‪ ، 0,8‬ﻭﻫﻭ ‪ 0,3‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺟﻭ ﺻﺣﻭﺍ‪.‬‬
‫‪ .I‬ﻧﻔﺭﺽ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺟﻭ ﺻﺣﻭ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻳﻭﻡ‪  .‬‬
‫‪ (1‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﺻﺣﻭﺍ ﺑﻌﺩ ‪ 3‬ﺃﻳّﺎﻡ؟ ‪ ‬‬
‫‪ (2‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﺻﺣﻭﺍ ﺑﻌﺩ ‪ 10‬ﺃﻳّﺎﻡ؟ ‪ ‬‬
‫‪ .II‬ﻧﻔﺭﺽ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺟﻭ ﻣﻣﻁﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻳﻭﻡ‪  .‬‬
‫‪21 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫‪ (1‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻣﻁﺭ ﺑﻌﺩ ‪ 3‬ﺃﻳّﺎﻡ؟ ‪ ‬‬
‫‪ (2‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻣﻁﺭ ﺑﻌﺩ ‪ 15‬ﻳﻭﻣﺎ؟ ﺍﺳﺗﻧﺗﺞ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺟﻭ ﺻﺣﻭﺍ ﺑﻌﺩ ‪ 15‬ﻳﻭﻣﺎ‪  .‬‬

‫ﺣ ّﻝ‪: - 14 -‬‬

‫‪ .I‬ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ﺍﻟﺟﻭ ﺻﺣﻭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻳﻭﻡ‪  .‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺟﻭ ﺻﺣﻭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻳﻭﻡ ﻭﻧﺭﻳﺩ ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﺻﺣﻭﺍ ﺑﻌﺩ ‪ 3‬ﺃﻳّﺎﻡ‪  .‬‬‫ﺃﻥ ّ‬‫‪ (1‬ﻧﻌﻠﻡ ّ‬
‫ﻧﻌﺭﻑ ﺍﻷﺣﺩﺍﺙ ﺍﻵﺗﻳﺔ‪:‬‬‫ﻟﺫﻟﻙ ّ‬
‫‪ » : A n‬ﺍﻟﺟﻭ ﺻﺣﻭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻳﻭﻡ ‪« n‬‬

‫‪ » : A n‬ﺍﻟﺟﻭ ﻣﻣﻁﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻳﻭﻡ ‪« n‬‬

‫ﺣﺳﺏ ﻣﻌﻁﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ‬

‫ﻭﺑﺈﻧﺟﺎﺯ ﺷﺟﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﺑﻠﺔ‬

‫ﻳﻧﺗﺞ‪:‬‬
‫‪p(A0 ) = 1 et‬‬ ‫‪p(A0 ) = 0‬‬
‫‪p An (A n +1 ) = 0,8‬‬ ‫‪p An (A n +1 ) = 1- p An (A n +1 ) = 0,2‬‬
‫‪p An (A n +1 ) = 0,3‬‬ ‫‪p An (A n +1 ) = 1- p An (A n +1 ) = 0,7‬‬

‫ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻣﻁﻠﻭﺏ ﻫﻭ‪:‬‬

‫)‪p (A3 ) = (0,7)3 + (0,7)(0,3)(0,2) + (0,3)(0,2)(0,7) + (0,3)(0,8)(0,2‬‬
‫‪= 0,475‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺟﻭ ﺻﺣﻭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻳﻭﻡ ﻭﻧﺭﻳﺩ ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﺻﺣﻭﺍ ﺑﻌﺩ ‪ 10‬ﺃﻳّﺎﻡ‪  .‬‬
‫ﺃﻥ ّ‬ ‫‪ (2‬ﻧﻌﻠﻡ ّ‬
‫ﻧﺳﺗﻌﻣﻝ ﻗﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻛﻠﻳﺔ ﻓﻧﺟﺩ‪:‬‬
‫‪22 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫) ‪p (A n +1 ) = p (A n Ç A n +1 ) + p (A n Ç A n +1‬‬
‫) ‪= p (A n ). p An (A n +1 ) + p (A n ). p A (A n +1‬‬
‫‪n‬‬

‫ﺣﻳﺙ ) ‪ u n  p ( A n‬ﻭ ‪u 0  p ( A 0 )  1‬‬ ‫ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻳﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺗﻌﺭﻳﻑ ﻣﺗﺗﺎﻟﻳﺔ ‪u n ‬‬
‫ﺣﻳﺙ ﻧﺟﺩ‪:‬‬
‫) ‪u n +1 = 0,7u n + 0, 2(1-u n‬‬

‫ﻭﻣﻧﻪ‬
‫‪u n +1 = 0,5u n + 0, 2‬‬

‫ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻣﻁﻠﻭﺏ ﻫﻭ )‪u10  p(A10‬‬

‫ﻧﻌﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﻣﺗﺗﺎﻟﻳﺔ ‪ v n ‬ﺑـ‪v n  u n 1  u n :‬‬

‫ﻧﻛﺗﺏ ‪ u n‬ﺑﺩﻻﻟﺔ ‪ n‬ﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻐﺭﺽ ّ‬

‫ﺃﻥ ‪ v n ‬ﻫﻧﺩﺳﻳﺔ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻬﺎ ‪ r  0,5‬ﻭﺣﺩّﻫﺎ ّ‬

‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪v 0‬‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻣﺑﺎﺷﺭ ﻧﺟﺩ ّ‬

‫ﺣﻳﺙ ‪.v 0 = u1 -u 0 = 0,7 -1 = -0,3‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﻥ‪v n = (-0,3).(0,5)n :‬‬

‫ﻭﻣﻧﻪ ﻧﺟﺩ ‪u n = (0,6).(0,5)n + 0, 4‬‬

‫‪p (A10 )  u10  (0,6).(0,5)10  0,4  0,400‬‬

‫ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺟﻭ ﻣﻣﻁﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻳﻭﻡ‪  .‬‬ ‫‪ .II‬ﻧﻔﺭﺽ ّ‬

‫‪ (1‬ﻧﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻣﻁﺭ ﺑﻌﺩ ‪ 3‬ﺃﻳّﺎﻡ ‪ ‬‬
‫ﺣﺳﺏ ﻣﻌﻁﻳﺎﺕ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺳﺅﺍﻝ ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ‪:‬‬
‫‪p(A0 ) = 0‬‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫‪p(A0 ) = 1‬‬

‫‪p A n (A n +1 ) = 0,8‬‬ ‫‪p An (A n +1 ) = 1- p An (A n +1 ) = 0, 2‬‬

‫ﻭﻣﻧﻪ‬
‫‪p A n (A n +1 ) = 0,3‬‬ ‫‪p An (A n +1 ) = 1- p An (A n +1 ) = 0, 7‬‬

‫ﺑﺎﺳﺗﻌﻣﺎﻝ ﺷﺟﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﺑﻠﺔ ﻧﺟﺩ‬

‫‪23 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫‪p (A 3 ) = (0, 2)(0, 7)(0,3) + (0, 2)(0,3)(0,8) + (0,8)(0, 2)(0,3) + (0,8)3‬‬
‫‪= 0, 650‬‬

‫‪ (2‬ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻣﻁﺭ ﺑﻌﺩ ‪ 15‬ﻳﻭﻣﺎ ‪ ‬‬

‫ﺑﺎﺳﺗﻌﻣﺎﻝ ﻗﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻛﻠﻳﺔ ﻧﺟﺩ‪:‬‬
‫) ‪p (A n +1 ) = p (A n Ç A n +1 ) + p (A n Ç A n +1‬‬
‫) ‪= p (A n ). p An (A n +1 ) + p (A n ). p A n (A n +1‬‬

‫ﻭﺗﻌﺭﻳﻑ ﻣﺗﺗﺎﻟﻳﺔ ) ‪ (w n‬ﺑﺣﻳﺙ ) ‪ w n = p (A n‬ﻭ ‪w 0 = p (A0 ) = 1‬‬

‫ﻧﺟﺩ‪w n +1 = (1-w n )0,3 +w n 0,8 :‬‬

‫‪w n +1 = 0,5w n + 0,3‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻧﻪ‬

‫ﺃﻱ ‪.w 15‬‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻣﻁﻠﻭﺏ ﻫﻭ ) ‪p (A15‬‬

‫ﻧﻌﺭ ّ◌ﻑ ﻣﺗﺗﺎﻟﻳﺔ ﻣﺳﺎﻋﺩﺓ ) ‪ (k n‬ﺑﺣﻳﺙ ‪. k n = w n +1 -w n‬‬

‫ﻟﺫﻟﻙ ّ‬

‫ﺑﺎﻟﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻣﺑﺎﺷﺭ ﻧﺟﺩ ّ‬

‫ﺃﻥ ) ‪ (k n‬ﻫﻧﺩﺳﻳﺔ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻬﺎ ‪ r = 0,5‬ﻭﺣﺩﻫﺎ ّ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪. k 0‬‬

‫ﺣﻳﺙ ‪  k 0 =w 1 -w 0 = 0,5w 0 + 0,3 -w 0 = -0,5w 0 + 0,3 = -0, 2‬‬

‫‪k n = (-0, 2).(0, 5) n‬‬ ‫ﻣﻧﻪ‬

‫‪w n = (0, 4).(0,5) n + 0, 6‬‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻣﻁﻠﻭﺏ ﻫﻭ ) ‪ p (A15‬ﺃﻱ ‪ w 15‬ﺇﺫﻥ ‪  w 15 = (0, 4).(0,5)15 + 0,6 » 0,600‬‬

‫ﺍﺳﺗﻧﺗﺎﺝ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺟﻭ ﺻﺣﻭﺍ ﺑﻌﺩ ‪ 15‬ﻳﻭﻣﺎ‪  .‬‬

‫ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﻫﻭ ) ‪، p (A15‬‬

‫) ‪p (A15 ) = 1- p (A15‬‬
‫‪=1-w 15 = 0,39998779296875‬‬ ‫ﻣﻧﻪ‬
‫‪» 0, 400‬‬

‫‪24 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ ‪:15‬‬

‫ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻛﻭﻥ ﻧﻘﻁﻳﺔ ﻛﻳﻔﻳﺔ ﺗﺧﺗﺎﺭ ﻣﻥ ﺩﺍﺧﻝ ﻛﺭﺓ ﺫﺍﺕ ﻧﺻﻑ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺭ ‪ ، R‬ﺃﻗﺭﺏ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻣﺭﻛﺯ ﻫﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻛﺭﺓ ﻣﻥ ﺳﻁﺣﻬﺎ؟‬

‫ﺣ ّﻝ – ‪: - 15‬‬

‫ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻹﻣﻛﺎﻧﻳﺎﺕ ‪ ‬ﻫﻲ ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﻧﻘﻁ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﻘﻊ ﺩﺍﺧﻝ ﺍﻟﻛﺭﺓ ﺫﺍﺕ ﻧﺻﻑ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺭ ‪. R‬‬

‫ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺳﺑﺔ ﻟﻠﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ » ﺍﻟﻧﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻣﺧﺗﺎﺭﺓ ﺗﻛﻭﻥ ﺃﻗﺭﺏ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻣﺭﻛﺯ ﺍﻟﻛﺭﺓ ﻣﻥ ﺳﻁﺣﻬﺎ « ﻫﻲ‬
‫‪R‬‬
‫‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﻧﻘﻁ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﻘﻊ ﺩﺍﺧﻝ ﺍﻟﻛﺭﺓ ﺫﺍﺕ ﻧﺻﻑ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺭ‬
‫‪2‬‬

‫‪3‬‬

‫= ‪  .  p‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫) (‬
‫‪4p R‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫ﻣﻧﻪ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻣﻁﻠﻭﺏ ﻫﻭ ‪= :‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬
‫) (‬
‫‪4p R‬‬
‫‪3‬‬

‫ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ ‪:16‬‬

‫ﻳﺣﺗﻭﻱ ﻭﻋﺎء ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ 4‬ﻛﺭﺍﺕ ﺣﻣﺭﺍء ‪ 3‬ﻛﺭﺍﺕ ﺑﻳﺿﺎء‪.‬‬

‫‪ .1‬ﻧﺳﺣﺏ ﻓﻲ ﺁﻥ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﻣﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻭﻋﺎء‪ ،‬ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺗﺣﻘﻖ ﻛﻝ ﺣﺩﺙ ﻣﻣﺎ ﻳﺄﺗﻲ‪  .‬‬
‫ﺃ( ﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﺣﻣﺭﺍﻭﻳﻥ‪  .‬‬
‫ﺏ( ﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﺑﻳﺿﺎﻭﻳﻥ‪  .‬‬
‫ﺝ( ﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﻣﻥ ﻟﻭﻧﻳﻥ ﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﻳﻥ‪  .‬‬
‫‪ .2‬ﻧﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺓ ﻭﻧﺳﺟﻝ ﻟﻭﻧﻬﺎ ﺛ ّﻡ ﻧﻌﻳﺩﻫﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﻋﺎء ﺍﻧﺳﺣﺏ ﻣﻥ ﺟﺩﻳﺩ ﻛﺭﺓ ﺃﺧﺭﻯ ﻧﺳﺟﻝ ﻟﻭﻧﻬﺎ ﺃﻳﺿﺎ‪،‬‬
‫ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺗﺣﻘﻖ ﻛﻝ ﺣﺩﺙ ﻣﻣﺎ ﻳﺄﺗﻲ‪  .‬‬
‫ﺃ( ﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﺣﻣﺭﺍﻭﻳﻥ‪  .‬‬
‫ﺏ( ﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﺑﻳﺿﺎﻭﻳﻥ‪  .‬‬
‫ﺝ( ﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﻣﻥ ﻟﻭﻧﻳﻥ ﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﻳﻥ‪  .‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
‫‪25 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫ﺣ ّﻝ ‪: -16 -‬‬

‫ﺗﺫﻛﻳﺭ ﺑﺎﻟﺩﺭﺱ‪:‬‬

‫‪ ‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺗﻭﻓﻳﻘﺎﺕ )ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺟﺯﺋﻳﺔ ﻏﻳﺭ ﻣﺭﺗﺑﺔ ﻭﺑﺩﻭﻥ ﺗﻛﺭﺍﺭ ﻟﻌﻧﺎﺻﺭﻫﺎ( ﺫﺍﺕ ‪ p‬ﻋﻧﺻﺭﺍ ﻣﻥ‬
‫‪n ‬‬
‫ﺣﻳﺙ‬ ‫ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ‪ n‬ﻋﻧﺻﺭﺍ ﺣﻳﺙ ‪ 0  p  n‬ﻫﻭ ‪  ‬ﺃﻭ ‪.C pn‬‬
‫‪p‬‬
‫‪æn ö‬‬ ‫!‪n‬‬ ‫)‪n (n -1) (n -1)...(n - p +1‬‬
‫= ‪  . ççç ÷÷÷÷ =C np‬‬ ‫=‬
‫‪çè p ø‬‬ ‫!) ‪p !(n - p‬‬ ‫‪1´2´...´ p‬‬

‫‪ ‬ﻧﺭﻣﺯ ﻟﻼﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺷﺭﻁﻲ ﻟﺗﺣﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ‪ B‬ﻋﻠﻣﺎ ّ‬

‫ﺃﻥ ‪ A‬ﻣﺣﻘﻘﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺭﻣﺯ ) ‪ p A (B‬ﺃﻭ ﺑﺎﻟﺭﻣﺯ‬
‫) ‪  p (B A‬‬

‫‪ .1‬ﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﻣﻥ ﺑﻳﻥ ‪ 7‬ﻛﺭﺍﺕ ) ‪ 4‬ﺣﻣﺭﺍء ﻭ ‪ 3‬ﺑﻳﺿﺎء( ﻓﻲ ﺁﻥ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻳﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺗﺷﻛﻳﻝ ﺗﻭﻓﻳﻘﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺫﺍﺕ ﻋﻧﺻﺭﻳﻥ ﻣﻥ ﺑﻳﻥ ‪ ، 7‬ﻣﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻣﻛﻧﺔ ﻟﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ ﻫﻭ ‪ C 72‬ﺑﺎﻟﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﻧﺟﺩ‬

‫‪  .C 72 = 21‬‬
‫ﺃ( ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺳﺑﺔ ﻟﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﺣﻣﺭﺍﻭﻳﻥ ﻫﻭ‪ C 42 = 6 :‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ﻳﻧﺗﺞ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺗﺣﻘﻖ ﻫﺫﻩ‬
‫‪C 42 6 2‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ﻫﻭ = = ‪  . p = 2‬‬
‫‪C 7 21 7‬‬
‫ﺏ( ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺳﺑﺔ ﻟﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﺑﻳﺿﺎﻭﻳﻥ ﻫﻭ‪ C 32 = 3 :‬ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ﻳﻧﺗﺞ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺗﺣﻘﻖ ﻫﺫﻩ‬
‫‪C 32 3 1‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ﻫﻭ = = ‪  . p ¢ = 2‬‬
‫‪C 7 21 7‬‬
‫ﺝ( ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺳﺑﺔ ﻟﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺓ ﺣﻣﺭﺍء ﻭﺃﺧﺭﻯ ﺑﻳﺿﺎء ﻫﻭ‪C 31 ´C 41 = 3´4 = 12 :‬‬
‫‪C 31 ´C 41‬‬ ‫‪3´4 4‬‬
‫= ‪  . p¢‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫=‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ﻳﻧﺗﺞ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺗﺣﻘﻖ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ﻫﻭ =‬
‫‪C‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪21‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬

‫‪ .2‬ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺳﺅﺍﻝ ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ﺍﻟﺳﺣﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺗﻭﺍﻟﻲ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻹﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻗﺑﻝ ﺍﻟﺳﺣﺏ ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺍﻟﻲ‪ .‬ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺳﺣﺏ ﻳﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺗﺷﻛﻳﻝ ﻗﻭﺍﺋﻡ ﺫﺍﺕ ﻋﻧﺻﺭﻳﻥ ﻣﻥ ﺑﻳﻥ ‪ 7‬ﻋﻧﺎﺻﺭ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ّ‬
‫ﻓﺈﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻣﻛﻧﺔ ﻫﻭ ‪  7²‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫ﺃ( ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﻣﻥ ﻟﻭﻥ ﺃﺣﻣﺭ ﻫﻭ ‪ّ p1 = 2 = 16‬‬
‫ﻷﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺳﺑﺔ ﻟﻬﺫﻩ‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪49‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ﻫﻭ ‪  . 42 = 16‬‬
‫‪26 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫ّ‬ ‫‪32‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬
‫= ‪ p 2 = 2‬ﻷﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺳﺑﺔ ﻫﻭ ‪3²‬‬ ‫ﺏ( ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﻣﻥ ﻟﻭﻥ ﺃﺑﻳﺽ ﻫﻭ‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪49‬‬
‫‪ .‬‬
‫ﺝ( ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺓ ﻣﻥ ﻟﻭﻥ ﺃﺑﻳﺽ ﻭﺃﺧﺭﻯ ﻣﻥ ﻟﻭﻥ ﺃﺣﻣﺭ ﻫﻭ ‪ّ p3 = 3´24 = 12‬‬
‫ﻷﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪49‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺳﺑﺔ ﻫﻭ ‪  . 3  4  12‬‬
‫ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ ‪:17‬‬

‫ﻧﻌﺗﺑﺭ ﻓﺿﺎء ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ‪ ‬ﻭﻟﻳﺗﻛﻥ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺗﺎﻥ ‪ A‬ﻭ ‪ . B‬ﻧﺭﻣﺯ ﺑﺎﻟﺭﻣﺯﻳﻥ ‪ A‬ﻭ ‪ B‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺗﻳﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻧﺎﻓﻳﺗﻳﻥ ﻟﻠﺣﺎﺩﺛﺗﻳﻥ ‪ A‬ﻭ ‪. B‬‬

‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ‪ p (B )  0,4 ، p (A )  0,5‬ﻭ ‪ ، p A (B )  0,6‬ﻓﺎﺣﺳﺏ ) ‪p (A  B‬‬

‫) ‪. p A (B‬‬

‫ﺣ ّﻝ‪:- 17 -‬‬

‫ﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻁﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻭﻓﺭﺓ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ‪ ،‬ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ‪:‬‬

‫‪ p (A )  0,5‬ﻭ ‪ p (B )  0,4‬ﻣﻧﻪ ‪ p (A )  0,5‬ﻭ ‪p (B )  0,6‬‬

‫ّ ) ‪p (A Ç B‬‬
‫= ) ‪  p A (B‬‬ ‫‪ ‬ﻧﻌﻠﻡ ﺃﻥ‬
‫) ‪p (A‬‬
‫ﻣﻧﻪ ‪. p (A Ç B ) = p (A )´ p A (B ) = 0,5´0,6 = 0,3‬‬

‫) ‪p A ( B ) = 1- p A ( B‬‬ ‫ﻭﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ‬

‫) ‪p (A Ç B‬‬ ‫) ‪p (A Ç B‬‬
‫‪= 1-‬‬ ‫ﺇﺫﻥ‬
‫) ‪p (A‬‬ ‫) ‪p (A‬‬

‫‪p (A Ç B ) = p (A ) - p (A Ç B ) = 0,5 - 0,3 = 0,2‬‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ‬

‫ﻧﻌﻠﻡ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ) ‪p (A È B ) = 1 - p (A È B ) = 1 - p (A Ç B‬‬

‫‪27 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫ﺑﺎﻟﺗﻌﻭﻳﺽ ﻧﺟﺩ ‪. p (A È B ) = 1 - p (A È B ) = 1 - p (A Ç B ) = 1 - 0, 2 = 0,8‬‬

‫‪p (A Ç B ) p (A ) + p (B ) - p (A È B ) 0,5 + 0,4 - 0,8‬‬

‫= ) ‪p A (B‬‬ ‫=‬ ‫=‬ ‫‪= 0,2‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬ ‫) ‪p (A‬‬ ‫) ‪p (A‬‬ ‫‪0,5‬‬

‫ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ ‪:18‬‬

‫ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺗﺎﻥ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻛﺭﺍﺕ ‪ A1‬ﻭ ‪ 70% . A 2‬ﻣﻥ ﻛﺭﺍﺕ ‪ A1‬ﺍﻟﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ ﺑﻳﺿﺎء ﻭ‪ 80% ‬ﻣﻥ‬
‫ﻛﺭﺍﺕ ‪ A 2‬ﺑﻳﺿﺎء‪.‬‬

‫ﻧﻔﺭﺽ ﺃﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻛﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺗﺣﺗﻭﻳﻪ ﺍﻟﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ ‪ A1‬ﻫﻭ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﺃﺿﻌﺎﻑ ﻣﺎ ﺗﺣﺗﻭﻳﻪ ﺍﻟﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ ‪. A 2‬‬
‫ﻭﺿﻌﺕ ﺟﻣﻳﻊ ﻛﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺗﻳﻥ ‪ A1‬ﻭ ‪ A 2‬ﻓﻲ ﻧﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﻭﻋﺎء‪ .‬ﻭﻗﻣﻧﺎ ﺑﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺣﺩﺓ ﻣﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻭﻋﺎء‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﻟﻭﻧﻬﺎ ﺃﺑﻳﺽ‪ .‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻧّﻬﺎ ﺗﻧﺗﻣﻲ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ ‪ A1‬؟‬
‫ﻋﺷﻭﺍﺋﻳﺎ‪ ،‬ﻓﺗﺑﻳّﻥ ّ‬

‫ﺣ ّﻝ‪:- 18 -‬‬

‫ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻛﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ ‪ A1‬ﻫﻭ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﺃﺿﻌﺎﻑ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻛﺭﺍﺕ ‪. A 2‬‬

‫ﻧﻌﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺣﺩﺛﻳﻥ ‪ » : a1‬ﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺓ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ ‪« A1‬‬

‫ّ‬

‫‪ » : a2‬ﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺓ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ ‪« A 2‬‬

‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫= ) ‪. p (a2‬‬ ‫= ) ‪ p (a1‬ﻭ‬ ‫ﺇﺫﻥ ﻳﻧﺗﺞ‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫ﻧﻌﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ‪ » : B‬ﺍﻟﻛﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺣﻭﺑﺔ ﺑﻳﺿﺎء «‬
‫ّ‬
‫ﺇﺫﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻣﻁﻠﻭﺏ ﺣﺳﺎﺑﻪ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺷﺭﻁﻲ ) ‪p B (a1‬‬

‫ﻭ ‪  p a1 (B ) = 0,3‬‬ ‫‪p a1 (B ) = 0,7‬‬

‫ﻭ ‪p a2 ( B ) = 0, 2‬‬ ‫‪p a2 (B ) = 0,8‬‬

‫ﻧﻁﺑﻖ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﺍﻵﺗﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﻧﺣﺻﻝ ﻋﻠﻳﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﺳﺗﻌﻣﺎﻝ ﻗﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻛﻠﻳﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪28 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫ﺟﺩﺍء ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺑﻁ ﺑﻳﻥ ‪ a1‬ﻭ ‪B‬‬
‫‪p B (a1 ) ‬‬
‫ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻉ ﺟﺩﺍءﺍﺕ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ ﺟﻣﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﺧﺭﺝ ‪B‬‬

‫ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ‬
‫)‪p (B Ç a1‬‬ ‫)‪p (B Ç a1‬‬
‫= )‪p B (a1‬‬ ‫=‬
‫) ‪p (B‬‬ ‫) ‪p (B Ç a1) + p (B Ç a2‬‬
‫) ‪p (a1). pa1 (B‬‬
‫=‬
‫) ‪p (a1). pa1 (B ) + p (a2 ). pa2 (B‬‬

‫) ‪p (a1). pa1 (B‬‬ ‫‪0,75´ 0,7‬‬

‫= )‪p B (a1‬‬ ‫=‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻧﻪ ﻳﻧﺗﺞ‪،‬‬
‫‪p (a1). pa1 (B ) + p (a2 ). pa2 (B ) 0,75´0,7 + 0,25´0,8‬‬

‫‪525‬‬
‫= )‪ p B (a1‬ﺃﻱ ‪  . p B (a1) » 0,72‬‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ﻧﺟﺩ‪:‬‬
‫‪725‬‬

‫ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ ‪:19‬‬

‫ﻳﻌﻠﻡ ﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﻣﻔﺗﺭﻕ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻕ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺳﻳَ ُﻣﺭ ﻋﺑﺭﻩ ﻳﺗﻔﺭﻉ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻁﺭﻳﻘﻳﻥ‪ ،‬ﺃﺣﺩﻫﻣﺎ ﻣﻣﺭ ﻣﻐﻠﻖ ﻭﺍﻵﺧﺭ‬
‫ﻫﻭ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻳﻖ ﺍﻟﺻﺣﻳﺢ‪ .‬ﻭﻋﻧﺩﻣﺎ ﻭﺻﻝ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻣﻔﺗﺭﻕ ﻟﻡ ﻳﺟﺩ ﺳﻭﻯ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﺃﺷﺧﺎﺹ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻣﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺷﺧﺹ ﺍﻟﺛﺎﻧﻲ ‪ S 2‬ﻳﺻﺩﻕ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻝ ‪ّ 5‬‬
‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ S 1‬ﻳﺻﺩﻕ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻝ ﻣﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﻣﻥ ﺑﻳﻥ ‪ّ 10‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺷﺧﺹ ّ‬
‫ﻣﺭﺍﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﺑﻳﻧﻣﺎ ﻳﺻﺩﻕ ﺍﻟﺷﺧﺹ ﺍﻟﺛﺎﻟﺙ ‪ّ 9 ، S 3‬‬
‫ﻣﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﻥ ﺑﻳﻥ ‪ّ 10‬‬ ‫ﻣﻥ ﺑﻳﻥ ‪ّ 10‬‬

‫ﺳﺄﻝ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭ ﺃﺣﺩ ﻫﺅﻻء ﺍﻷﺷﺧﺎﺹ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻳﻖ ﺍﻟﺻﺣﻳﺢ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﺗﺿﺢ ﻟﻪ ﺑﻌﺩﻣﺎ ﺳﻠﻛﻪ ﺃﻧّﻪ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻳﻖ ﺍﻟﺻﺣﻳﺢ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ S 1‬؟‬
‫ﻓﻌﻼ‪ .‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﻗﺩ ﺳﺄﻝ ﺍﻟﺷﺧﺹ ّ‬

‫ﺣ ّﻝ‪:- 19 -‬‬

‫ﻧﻌﺭﻑ ﺍﻷﺣﺩﺍﺙ ﺍﻵﺗﻳﺔ‪:‬‬

‫ّ‬
‫‪ » : R1‬ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭ ﺳﺄﻝ ﺍﻟﺷﺧﺹ ‪« S 1‬‬

‫‪ » : R 2‬ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭ ﺳﺄﻝ ﺍﻟﺷﺧﺹ ‪« S 2‬‬

‫‪ » : R 3‬ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭ ﺳﺄﻝ ﺍﻟﺷﺧﺹ ‪« S 3‬‬

‫‪29 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫‪ » :V‬ﻳﺻﺩﻕ ﺍﻟﺷﺧﺹ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻭﻟﻪ «‬

‫ﻧﺗﺭﺟﻡ ﺍﻵﻥ ﻣﻌﻁﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺄﻟﺔ ﺑﺎﺳﺗﻌﻣﺎﻝ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺣﺩﺍﺙ ﻭﺑﻭﺍﺳﻁﺔ‬

‫ﺷﺟﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ‪.‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﻥ ﻳﻧﺗﺞ‪:‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫= ) ‪. p (R 3‬‬ ‫= ) ‪، p ( R 2 ) = ، p ( R1‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬

‫‪p R 3 (V ) = 0,9 ، p R 2 (V ) = 0,5 ، p R1 (V ) = 0,2‬‬

‫ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻣﻁﻠﻭﺏ ﺣﺳﺎﺑﻪ ﻫﻭ ) ‪pV ( R 1‬‬

‫) ‪p (V Ç R1‬‬ ‫) ‪p (R1 ) ´ p R1 (V‬‬

‫= ) ‪pV (R1‬‬ ‫=‬ ‫ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ‬
‫) ‪p (V‬‬ ‫) ‪p (v Ç R1 ) + p (v Ç R 2 ) + p (v Ç R 3‬‬

‫) ‪p (R1 ) ´ p R1 (V‬‬
‫= ) ‪pV (R1‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻧﻪ‬
‫) ‪p (R1 ) ´ p R1 (V ) + p ( R 2 ) ´ p R 2 (V ) + p ( R 3 ) ´ p R 3 (V‬‬

‫ﺗﺳﻣﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺳﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺩﺳﺗﻭﺭ ﺑﺎﻳﺯ )‪ (Bayes‬ﻭﻳﻣﻛﻥ ﺍﻟﺗﻌﺑﻳﺭ ﻋﻧﻬﺎ ﻛﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ‪:‬‬

‫ﺟﺩﺍء ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺑﻁ ﺑﻳﻥ ‪ R1‬ﻭ‬

‫‪pV (R1 ) ‬‬
‫)ﺃﻧﻅﺭ ﺍﻟﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ ‪(18‬‬ ‫ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻉ ﺟﺩﺍءﺍﺕ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ ﺟﻣﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﺧﺭﺝ ‪V‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪´ 0, 2‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫= ) ‪  . pV (R1‬‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﺗﻌﻭﻳﺽ ﻧﺟﺩ‪= = 0,125 :‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪´ 0,2 + ´ 0,5 + ´ 0,9 8‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬

‫ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ ‪:20‬‬
‫ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻘﻭﻡ ﻣﺻﻠﺣﺔ ﺍﻟﺑﺭﻳﺩ ﺑﺳﺣﺏ ﺍﻟﺭﺳﺎﺋﻝ ﻣﻥ ﺻﻧﺩﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﺑﻠﺩﻳﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻳﻭﻡ ﺫﻱ ﺍﻟﺭﺗﺑﺔ ‪n‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﺳﻧﺔ ﻫﻭ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺕ ﻗﺩ ﺳﺣﺑﺕ ﺍﻟﺭﺳﺎﺋﻝ ﺑﺎﻷﻣﺱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻭ ‪ 1‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﺭﻯ‪.‬‬
‫‪2‬‬

‫‪30 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫ﻟﻳﻛﻥ ‪ p n‬ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻘﻭﻡ ﻣﺻﻠﺣﺔ ﺍﻟﺑﺭﻳﺩ ﺑﺳﺣﺏ ﺍﻟﺭﺳﺎﺋﻝ ﻣﻥ ﺻﻧﺩﻭﻕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻳﻭﻡ ﺫﻱ ﺍﻟﺭﺗﺑﺔ ‪. n‬‬
‫ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ‪ p n‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻋﻠﻣﺕ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ‪) p1  1‬ﻧﺑﺣﺙ ﻋﻥ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺗﺭﺍﺟﻌﻳﺔ ﺑﻳﻥ ‪ p n‬ﻭ ‪( p n 1‬‬

‫ﺣ ّﻝ – ‪: - 20‬‬
‫ﻧﻌﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ‪ » A n‬ﺗﺳﺣﺏ ﺍﻟﺭﺳﺎﺋﻝ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻳﻭﻡ ﺫﻱ ﺍﻟﺭﺗﺑﺔ ‪« n‬‬
‫ّ‬
‫ﻧﺳﻣﻲ ‪ A n‬ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ﺍﻟﻧﺎﻓﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ‪. A n‬‬

‫ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ‪:‬‬
‫‪ p n‬ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺳﺣﺏ ﺍﻟﺭﺳﺎﺋﻝ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻳﻭﻡ ﺫﻱ ﺍﻟﺭﺗﺑﺔ ‪. n‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﻥ ) ‪ p n  p (A n‬ﻭﻣﻧﻪ ‪p (A n )  1  p n‬‬

‫ﻧﻌﻠﻡ ﻣﻥ ﻣﻌﻁﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺄﻟﺔ ّ‬

‫ﺃﻥ‪:‬‬
‫‪ p A n (A n +1 ) = 0,5‬ﻭ ‪p A n ( A n +1 ) = 1‬‬

‫ﻭﻣﻧﻪ ﻧﺳﺗﻧﺗﺞ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ‪:‬‬
‫‪ p An (A n +1 ) = 0,5‬ﻭ ‪p An (A n +1 ) = 0‬‬

‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ﺗﻧﺗﺞ ﺷﺟﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﺑﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﺗﺭﺟﻡ ﻣﻌﻁﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺄﻟﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﺑﺎﺳﺗﻌﻣﺎﻝ ﻗﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻛﻠﻳﺔ ﻳﻧﺗﺞ‪:‬‬
‫) ‪p (A n +1 ) = p (A n +1 Ç A n ) + p (A n +1 Ç A n‬‬
‫) ‪= p (A n ). p A n (A n +1 ) + p (A n ). p An (A n +1‬‬

‫ﺃﻱ‪p n +1 = p n ´ 0,5 + (1 - p n ) ´1 :‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫ﻭﻣﻧﻪ ‪. p n +1 = - p n + 1‬‬
‫‪2‬‬

‫ﻧﻌﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﻣﺗﺗﺎﻟﻳﺔ ) ‪ (v n‬ﻛﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ‪ v n = p n +1 - p n :‬ﻣﻊ * ‪. n Î ‬‬

‫ﻟﻛﺗﺎﺑﺔ ‪ p n‬ﺑﺩﻻﻟﺔ ‪ّ ، n‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﻧﺟﺩ ‪ v n +1 = - v n‬ﻣﻧﻪ ﻧﺳﺗﻧﺗﺞ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ‪:‬‬
‫‪2‬‬

‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪v 1 = p 2 - p1 = -‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪ v 1‬ﺣﻳﺙ‬
‫) ‪ (v n‬ﻣﺗﺗﺎﻟﻳﺔ ﻫﻧﺩﺳﻳﺔ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻬﺎ ‪ q = - 2‬ﻭﺣﺩّﻫﺎ ّ‬

‫‪31 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫‪n -1‬‬
‫‪æ 1 öæ 1 ö‬‬
‫‪v n = v 1q‬‬ ‫‪n -1‬‬
‫÷÷÷ ‪= çç- ÷÷÷çç-‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻧﻪ ﺣﺩّﻫﺎ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻫﻭ‬
‫‪çè 2 øèç 2 ø‬‬

‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪pn = - v n‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫‪+‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫ﻭﺣﻳﺙ ﻳﻣﻛﻧﻧﺎ ﻛﺗﺎﺑﺔ‬

‫‪n‬‬
‫÷‪  . p n = - 23 æçççè- 1 ö÷÷ø‬‬ ‫‪+‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫ﻧﺟﺩ‬
‫‪2‬‬

‫ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ ‪:21‬‬

‫ﻳﻠﻌﺏ ﻛﻣﺎﻝ ﻭﺳﻌﺎﺩ ﻭﺭﻳﺎﺽ ﺑﺎﻟﻛﺭﺓ‪.‬ﻋﻧﺩﻣﺎ ﺗﻛﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻛﺭﺓ ﺑﺣﻭﺯﺓ ﻛﻣﺎﻝ ّ‬

‫ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺭﻣﻲ ﺑﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺇﻟﻰ ﺳﻌﺎﺩ ﻫﻭ ‪ 0,75‬ﻭﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺭﻣﻲ ﺑﻬﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺭﻳﺎﺽ ﻫﻭ ‪ ، 0,25‬ﻭﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻧﺕ ﺍﻟﻛﺭﺓ ﻋﻧﺩ ﺳﻌﺎﺩ ّ‬
‫ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺗﺭﻣﻲ ﺑﻬﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻛﻣﺎﻝ ﻫﻭ ‪ 0,75‬ﻭﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺭﻣﻲ ﺑﻬﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺭﻳﺎﺽ ﻫﻭ ‪ . 0,25‬ﺑﻳﻧﻣﺎ ﻳﺭﻣﻲ ﺭﻳﺎﺽ ﺑﺎﻟﻛﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺇﻟﻰ ﺳﻌﺎﺩ ﻛﻠﻣﺎ ﻛﺎﻧﺕ ﺑﺣﻭﺯﺗﻪ‪ .‬ﻛﺎﻧﺕ ﺍﻟﻛﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺑﺩﺍﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻠﻌﺏ ﻋﻧﺩ ﻛﻣﺎﻝ‪.‬‬

‫ﻧﺭﻣﺯ ﺑﺎﻟﺭﻣﻭﺯ ‪ q ، p n‬ﻭ ‪ rn‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺻﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻛﺭﺓ ﻋﻧﺩ ﻛﻣﺎﻝ ‪ ،‬ﺳﻌﺎﺩ ﻭﺭﻳﺎﺽ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺗﺭﺗﻳﺏ‬ ‫‪n‬‬

‫ﻋﻧﺩ ﺍﻟﺭﻣﻳﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺭﺗﺑﺔ ‪. n‬‬

‫ﻣﺎ ﻫﻲ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﻛﻝ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﻣﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ ﻋﻧﺩﻣﺎ ﻳﺅﻭﻝ ‪ n‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻼﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ؟‬

‫ﺣ ّﻝ‪:- 21 -‬‬

‫ﻧﺭﻣﺯ ﺑﺎﻟﺭﻣﻭﺯ ‪ B ، A‬ﻭ ‪ C‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﻛﻝ ﻣﻥ ﻛﻣﺎﻝ ﻭﺳﻌﺎﺩ ﻭﺭﻳﺎﺽ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺗﺭﺗﻳﺏ‪.‬‬

‫ﻧﻌﺭﻑ ﺍﻷﺣﺩﺍﺙ ﺍﻵﺗﻳﺔ‪:‬‬

‫ّ‬

‫‪ » : A n‬ﺍﻟﻛﺭﺓ ﺑﺣﻭﺯﺓ ﻛﻣﺎﻝ ﺑﻌﺩ ﺍﻟﺭﻣﻳﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺭﺗﺑﺔ ‪ n‬ﻣﺑﺎﺷﺭﺓ «‬

‫‪ » : B n‬ﺍﻟﻛﺭﺓ ﺑﺣﻭﺯﺓ ﺳﻌﺎﺩ ﺑﻌﺩ ﺍﻟﺭﻣﻳﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺭﺗﺑﺔ ‪ n‬ﻣﺑﺎﺷﺭﺓ «‬

‫‪ » :C n‬ﺍﻟﻛﺭﺓ ﺑﺣﻭﺯﺓ ﺭﻳﺎﺽ ﺑﻌﺩ ﺍﻟﺭﻣﻳﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺭﺗﺑﺔ ‪ n‬ﻣﺑﺎﺷﺭﺓ «‬

‫ﺍﻟﻣﺧﻁﻁ ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﺑﻝ ﻳﺷﺭﺡ ﻣﻌﻁﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺄﻟﺔ‬

‫ﺇﺫﻥ ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ‪:‬‬

‫‪32 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫‪ p (A n ) = p n‬ﻭ ‪ p (B n ) = q n‬ﻭ ‪. p (C n ) = rn‬‬

‫ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻛﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺑﺩﺍﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻠﻌﺏ ﻣﻭﺟﻭﺩﺓ ﻋﻧﺩ ﻛﻣﺎﻝ ّ‬

‫ﻓﺈﻥ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺑﻣﺎ ّ‬

‫‪ p (A 0 ) = 1‬ﻭ ‪ p (B 0 ) = 0‬ﻭ ‪. p (C 0 ) = 0‬‬

‫ﺣﺳﺏ ﻗﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻛﻠﻳﺔ ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ‪ .‬‬

‫) ‪p (A n +1 ) = p (A n Ç A n +1 ) + p (B n Ç A n +1 ) + p (C n Ç A n +1‬‬

‫) ‪p (B n +1 ) = p (B n Ç B n +1 ) + p (A n Ç B n +1 ) + p (C n Ç B n +1‬‬ ‫ﻭ‬

‫) ‪p (C n +1 ) = p (C n Ç C n +1 ) + p (A n Ç C n +1 ) + p (B n Ç C n +1‬‬ ‫ﻭ‬

‫ﺑﺎﺳﺗﻌﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺷﺭﻁﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺗﻌﻭﻳﺽ ﻧﺟﺩ‪:‬‬

‫) ‪p (A n +1 ) = p (A n ). p An (A n +1 ) + p (B n ). p B n (A n +1 ) + p (C n ). pC n (A n +1‬‬

‫) ‪p (B n +1 ) = p (B n ). p B n (B n +1 ) + p (A n ). p An (B n +1 ) + p (C n ). pC n (B n +1‬‬ ‫ﻭ‬

‫) ‪p (B n +1 ) = p (C n ). pC n (C n +1 ) + p (A n ). p A n (C n +1 ) + p (B n ). p B n (C n +1‬‬ ‫ﻭ‬

‫‪3‬‬
‫ﺗﻧﺗﺞ ﻣﻣﺎ ﺳﺑﻖ ﺍﻟﺟﻣﻠﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫‪p n +1 = q n‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫‪q n +1 = p n + rn‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪rn +1 = p n + q n‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬

‫ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻛﺭﺓ ﻣﻭﺟﻭﺩﺓ ﻋﻧﺩ ﺃﺣﺩ ﺍﻟﻼﻋﺑﻳﻥ ﺍﻟﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ﻣﻬﻣﺎ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﺑﻳﻌﻲ ‪ّ n‬‬
‫ﻓﺈﻥ‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻠﻡ ّ‬
‫‪. p n + q n + rn = 1‬‬

‫‪33 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫ﻧﻔﺭﺽ ﺃﻥ ﻛﻝ ﻣﺗﺗﺎﻟﻳﺔ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﺗﺗﺎﻟﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﺗﻘﺑﻝ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﻣﻧﺗﻬﻳﺔ ﻋﻧﺩﻣﺎ ﻳﺅﻭﻝ ‪ n‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻼﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻧﺿﻊ ﺑﻧﺎء‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻙ ‪ lim p n = p‬ﻭ ‪ lim q n = q‬ﻭ ‪. lim rn = r .‬‬
‫‪n +¥‬‬ ‫‪n +¥‬‬ ‫‪n +¥‬‬

‫ﻋﻧﺩﻣﺎ ﻧﺟﻌﻝ ‪ n‬ﻳﺅﻭﻝ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻼﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺟﻣﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺳﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻧﺟﺩ ﺍﻟﺟﻣﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺍﻟﻳﺔ‪:‬‬

‫‪3‬‬
‫= ‪p‬‬ ‫‪q‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫= ‪q‬‬ ‫‪p + r‬‬
‫‪4‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫= ‪r‬‬ ‫‪p +‬‬ ‫‪q‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬

‫ﻭﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ﺃﻳﺿﺎ ‪. p + q + r = 1‬‬

‫‪  . ( p , q , r ) = ( 12‬‬ ‫‪,‬‬ ‫‪16 1‬‬

‫‪35 35 5‬‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻣﺑﺎﺷﺭ ﻧﺟﺩ ﺣﻼ ﻭﺍﺣﺩﺍ ﻟﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺟﻣﻠﺔ ﻫﻭ ) ‪,‬‬

‫ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ ‪:22‬‬

‫ﻧﻠﻘﻲ ﺣﺟﺭﻱ ﻧﺭﺩ ﻭﻧﻬﺗﻡ ﺑﺎﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺗﻳﻥ ‪ A‬ﻭ ‪ B‬ﺣﻳﺙ‪:‬‬

‫‪ » : A‬ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻣﻳﻥ ﺍﻟﻅﺎﻫﺭﻳﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﺟﻬﻳﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻭﻳﻳﻥ ﻟﻠﺣﺟﺭﻳﻥ ﻓﺭﺩﻳﺎ «‬

‫ﻣﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺣﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻝ «‬

‫‪ » : B‬ﻳﻅﻬﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ ‪ّ 1‬‬

‫ﻫﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺗﻳﻥ ‪ A‬ﻭ ‪ B‬ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻠّﺗﺎﻥ؟‬

‫ﺣ ّﻝ‪:- 22 -‬‬

‫ﻧﺷﻛﻝ ﺟﺩﻭﻝ ﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ ﻋﻣﻠﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺟﻣﻊ ﻟﻠﺭﻗﻣﻳﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﻣﻛﻥ ﻅﻬﻭﺭﻫﻣﺎ ﻋﻧﺩ ﺇﻟﻘﺎء ﺍﻟﺣﺟﺭﻳﻥ‪.‬‬
‫ﺣﺠﺮ‪1‬‬
‫‪1 2 3 4 5 6‬‬
‫ﺣﺠﺮ ‪2‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪11‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪11‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺟﺩﻭﻝ ‪1‬‬

‫‪34 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫‪ » : A‬ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻣﻳﻥ ﺍﻟﻅﺎﻫﺭﻳﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﺟﻬﻳﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻭﻳﻳﻥ ﻟﻠﺣﺟﺭﻳﻥ ﻓﺭﺩﻳﺎ «‬

‫ﻧﺷﻛﻝ ﺍﻟﺟﺩﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻳﻌﻁﻲ ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻣﻳﻥ ﺍﻟﻅﺎﻫﺭﻳﻥ ﻓﺭﺩﻳﺎ‪.‬‬

‫ﺣﺠﺮ‪1‬‬
‫‪1 2 3 4 5 6‬‬
‫ﺣﺠﺮ ‪2‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬
‫‪18‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺟﺩﻭﻝ ‪2‬‬ ‫= ) ‪p (A‬‬ ‫ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪36‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪11‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪11‬‬

‫ﻣﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺣﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻝ «‬

‫‪ » : B‬ﻳﻅﻬﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ ‪ّ 1‬‬

‫ﻣﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺣﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻝ‪.‬‬

‫ﻧﺷﻛﻝ ﺍﻟﺟﺩﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻳﻌﻁﻲ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ ‪ّ 1‬‬

‫ﺣﺠﺮ‪1‬‬
‫‪1 2 3 4 5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫ﺣﺠﺮ ‪2‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪     ‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪11‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺟﺩﻭﻝ ‪3‬‬ ‫= ) ‪p (B‬‬ ‫ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪‬‬ ‫‪36‬‬

‫ﻧﻌﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ‪: A Ç B‬‬

‫ّ‬

‫ﻣﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺣﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻝ«‬

‫» ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻣﻳﻥ ﺍﻟﻅﺎﻫﺭﻳﻥ ﻓﺭﺩﻳﺎ ﻣﻊ ﻭﺟﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ّ‬

‫)ﻧﻌﺑﺭ ﻋﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ﺑﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺧﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻣﻠﻭءﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﻣﺷﺗﺭﻛﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺟﺩﻭﻟﻳﻥ ‪ 2‬ﻭ ‪(3‬‬

‫‪6‬‬
‫ﺣﺠﺮ ‪2‬‬
‫ﺣﺠﺮ‪1‬‬
‫‪1 2 3 4 5 6‬‬ ‫= ) ‪p (A Ç B‬‬ ‫ﺣﺳﺏ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺟﺩﻭﻝ ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ‬
‫‪36‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫ﻧﻼﺣﻅ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ) ‪p (A Ç B ) ¹ p (A ) ´ p (B‬‬
‫‪5‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬

‫‪35 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫ﻭﻣﻧﻪ ‪ A‬ﻭ ‪ B‬ﺣﺎﺩﺛﺗﺎﻥ ﻏﻳﺭ ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻠّﺗﻳﻥ‪  .‬‬

‫ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ ‪:23‬‬

‫ﻳﺣﺗﻭﻱ ﻭﻋﺎء ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ 4‬ﻗﺭﻳﺻﺎﺕ ﻣﺭﻗﻣﺔ ﻣﻥ ‪ 1‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪.4‬‬

‫ﻣﻥ ﺟﺩﻳﺩ‬ ‫ﻧﺳﺣﺏ ﻋﺷﻭﺍﺋﻳﺎ ﻗﺭﻳﺻﺔ ﻣﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻭﻋﺎء ﻭﻧﺳﺟﻝ ﺭﻗﻣﻬﺎ ‪ a‬ﺛ ّﻡ ﻧﻌﻳﺩﻫﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﻋﺎء ﻭﻧﺳﺣﺏ‬
‫ﻗﺭﻳﺻﺔ ﺃﺧﺭﻯ ﻭﻧﺳﺟﻝ ﻟﻭﻧﻬﺎ ‪. b‬‬
‫‪  ‬‬
‫ﻟﻳﻛﻥ ) ‪ (O ; i , j , k‬ﻣﻌﻠﻣﺎ ﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣﺩﺍ ﻭﻣﺗﺟﺎﻧﺳﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺿﺎء‪.‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫ﻧﻌﺗﺑﺭ ﺍﻟﺷﻌﺎﻋﻳﻥ ‪ u‬ﻭ ‪ v‬ﺣﻳﺙ ) ‪ u (a ,- 5,1 - a‬ﻭ ) ‪.v (1 + b ,1, b‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪.‬‬ ‫ﺑﺭﻫﻥ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﻫﺫﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺷﻌﺎﻋﺎﻥ ﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣﺩﻳﻥ ﻫﻭ‬
‫‪4‬‬

‫ﺣ ّﻝ‪:- 23 -‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺷﻌﺎﻋﺎﻥ ‪ u‬ﻭ ‪ v‬ﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣﺩﻳﻥ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻭﻓﻘﻁ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺟﺩﺍﺅﻫﻣﺎ ﺍﻟﺳﻠّﻣﻲ ﻣﻌﺩﻭﻣﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫ﻭﺣﻳﺙ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ‪u .v = a (1 + b ) + 1´ (-5) + (1 - a )b‬‬

‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫ّ‬
‫ﻓﺈﻥ ‪ u‬ﻭ ‪ v‬ﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣﺩﺍﻥ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻭﻓﻘﻁ ﺇﺫﺍ‪. a + b = 5 ،‬‬

‫ﻭﻣﻧﻪ ﻧﺟﺩ ﺍﻟﺛﻧﺎﺋﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺗﺑﺔ ) ‪ (a ; b‬ﻫﻲ )‪ (3;2) ، (2;3) ، (4; 1) ، (1; 4‬ﻣﻊ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺗﺣﻘﻖ ﻛﻝ ﺛﻧﺎﺋﻳﺔ ﻫﻭ‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪æ1ö‬‬
‫÷÷÷ ‪). ççç‬ﺍﻟﺳﺣﺏ ﻫﻧﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺗﻭﺍﻟﻲ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻹﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻗﺑﻝ ﺍﻟﺳﺣﺏ ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺍﻟﻲ(‬
‫‪è 4ø‬‬

‫‪2‬‬
‫‪æ1ö‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫ﻣﻧﻪ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺷﻌﺎﻋﺎﻥ ﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣﺩﻳﻥ ﻫﻭ = ÷÷÷ ‪  . 4 ´ççç‬‬
‫‪è 4ø‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬

‫ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ ‪:24‬‬

‫ﻧﺧﺿﻊ ﻛﻝ ﻗﻁﻊ ﺍﻟﻐﻳﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﻳﻧﺗﺟﻬﺎ ﻣﺻﻧﻊ ﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭﻳﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻋﻳﻥ ‪ T1‬ﺛ ّﻡ ‪.T 2‬‬

‫‪36 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫‪ 95%‬ﻣﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻊ ﺗﻧﺟﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ ‪ 99% .T1‬ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻊ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﻧﺟﺣﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ ‪ T1‬ﻧﺟﺣﺕ ﺃﻳﺿﺎ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ ‪ ،T 2‬ﺑﻳﻧﻣﺎ ﻧﺟﺩ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ‪ 98%‬ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻊ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﻟﻡ ﺗﻧﺟﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ ‪ T1‬ﻧﺟﺣﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ ‪.T 2‬‬

‫ﻭﻧﻌﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺗﻳﻥ‪:‬‬
‫ّ‬ ‫ﻧﻌﺗﺑﺭ ﻗﻁﻌﺔ ﻏﻳﺎﺭ ﻛﻳﻔﻳﺔ ﻣﻥ ﺇﻧﺗﺎﺝ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻣﺻﻧﻊ‬

‫‪ » : T1‬ﻗﻁﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﻳﺎﺭ ﺗﻧﺟﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ ‪« T1‬‬

‫‪ » : T2‬ﻗﻁﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﻳﺎﺭ ﺗﻧﺟﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ ‪« T2‬‬

‫ﺗﻌﻁﻰ ﺍﻟﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ ﺑﺗﻘﺭﻳﺏ ﻗﺩﺭﻩ ‪ 104‬ﺑﺎﻟﻧﻘﺻﺎﻥ‪.‬‬

‫‪ .1‬ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺗﺣﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ‪ » : s‬ﻗﻁﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﻳﺎﺭ ﺗﻧﺟﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭﻳﻥ ‪ T1‬ﻭ ‪« T2‬‬
‫‪ .2‬ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻧﺟﺢ ﻗﻁﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﻳﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ ‪  . T2‬‬
‫‪ .3‬ﻫﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺗﺎﻥ ‪ T1‬ﻭ ‪ T2‬ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻠّﺗﺎﻥ‪  .‬‬
‫‪ .4‬ﻧﺧﺗﺎﺭ ﻗﻁﻌﺔ ﻏﻳﺎﺭ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻊ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﻧﺟﺣﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ ‪ ، T2‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻧّﻬﺎ ﻗﺩ ﻧﺟﺣﺕ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ ‪ T1‬؟ ‪ ‬‬
‫ﺣ ّﻝ‪:-24-‬‬

‫ﻧﺷﻛﻝ ّﺃﻭﻻ ﺷﺟﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﺗﺭﺟﻡ ﺍﻟﻭﺿﻌﻳﺔ‬

‫‪ .1‬ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺗﺣﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ‪  : s‬‬

‫» ﻗﻁﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﻳﺎﺭ ﺗﻧﺟﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭﻳﻥ ‪ T1‬ﻭ ‪« T2‬‬

‫‪p (s ) = p (T1 Ç T2 ) = p (T1 ). p T1 (T2 ) = 0,95´ 0,99 = 0,9405‬‬

‫‪37 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫‪ .2‬ﻳﻣﻛﻥ ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻗﻁﻌﺔ ﻏﻳﺎﺭ ﺗﻧﺟﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺧﺗﺑﺎﺭ ‪ T2‬ﺑﺗﻁﺑﻳﻖ‬
‫ﺩﺳﺗﻭﺭ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻛﻠﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ ‪ T1 È T2‬ﺣﻳﺙ ﻧﺟﺩ‪  :‬‬
‫) ‪p (T2 ) = p (T2 Ç T1 ) + p (T2 Ç T1‬‬

‫ﻭﻣﻧﻪ‬

‫‪p (T2 ) = p (T2 Ç T1 ) + p (T2 Ç T1 ) = 0,95´ 0,99 + 0,05´ 0,98‬‬

‫‪= 0,9405 + 0,049 = 0,9895‬‬

‫‪ ‬‬

‫‪ .3‬ﻫﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺗﺎﻥ ‪ T1‬ﻭ ‪ T2‬ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻠّﺗﺎﻥ؟ ‪ ‬‬

‫ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ‪ p T1 (T2 )  0,99‬ﻣﻧﻪ ) ‪ p T (T2 ) ¹ p (T2‬ﺇﺫﻥ ‪ T1‬ﻭ ‪ T2‬ﻏﻳﺭ ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻠّﺗﻳﻥ‪.‬‬
‫‪1‬‬

‫ﻳﻣﻛﻧﻧﺎ ﻣﻘﺎﺭﻧﺔ ) ‪ p (T1 Ç T2‬ﻭ ) ‪  ( p (T1 ) ´ p (T2‬‬

‫‪ .4‬ﺍﻟﻣﻁﻠﻭﺏ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺳﺅﺍﻝ ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺷﺭﻁﻲ ) ‪  . PT (T1‬‬

‫‪2‬‬

‫‪P(T2 Ç T1 ) 0,9405‬‬
‫=) ‪PT2 (T1‬‬ ‫=‬ ‫ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ‪= 0,95048....‬‬
‫) ‪P(T2‬‬ ‫‪0,9895‬‬

‫ﻭﻣﻧﻪ ‪ PT (T1 ) = 0,9505‬ﺑﺗﻘﺭﻳﺏ ﺑﺎﻟﻧﻘﺻﺎﻥ ﻗﺩﺭﻩ ‪  .104‬‬

‫‪2‬‬

‫ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ ‪:25‬‬

‫ﻟﻳﻛﻥ ‪ n‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﻁﺑﻳﻌﻳﺎ ﻏﻳﺭ ﻣﻌﺩﻭﻡ‪ .‬ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ﻗﻁﻌﺔ ﻧﻘﺩﻳﺔ ﺗﺣﻘﻖ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻭﺟﻪ ﻋﻧﺩ ﺇﻟﻘﺎﺋﻬﺎ ﻫﻭ ‪p‬‬
‫) ‪ p‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﺣﻘﻳﻘﻲ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺎﻝ [‪( ]0;1‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﻳﻅﻬﺭ ﻓﻳﻬﺎ‬

‫ﻣﺭﺓ ﻣﺗﺗﺎﻟﻳﺔ‪ .‬ﻟﻳﻛﻥ ‪ X‬ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻳﺣﺻﻲ ﻋﺩﺩ ّ‬
‫ﻧﻠﻘﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻌﺔ ‪ّ n‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻭﺟﻪ ﺧﻼﻝ ‪ n‬ﺭﻣﻳﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪ .1‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﻗﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ ‪ X‬؟ ‪ ‬‬

‫‪ .2‬ﺃﻋﻁ ﺍﻷﻣﻝ ﺍﻟﺭﻳﺎﺿﻳﺎﺗﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺗﺑﺎﻳﻥ ﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ ﺑﺩﻻﻟﺔ ‪ n‬ﻭ ‪  . p‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
‫‪38 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫ﺣ ّﻝ‪:- 25 -‬‬

‫‪ .1‬ﻧﻼﺣﻅ ﺃﻧّﻧﺎ ﻧﻛﺭﺭ ﻧﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﻣﺧﺭﺟﻳﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﺷﺭﻭﻁ ﺑﻁﺭﻳﻘﺔ ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻠﺔ‪ .‬ﺇﺫﻥ ﻧﺣﻥ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ‬
‫ﻣﺭﺓ‪  .‬‬
‫ﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ ﺑﺭﻧﻭﻟﻲ ﻣﻛﺭﺭﺓ ‪ّ n‬‬
‫ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻭﺟﻪ ﻫﻭ ‪. p‬‬

‫ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻅﻬﺭ ﻫﻭ ‪.1 - p‬‬

‫ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ﻓﺭﺿﺎ ‪ X‬ﻫﻭ ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻳﺣﺻﻲ ﻋﺩﺩ ّ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﻳﻅﻬﺭ ﻓﻳﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻭﺟﻪ ﺧﻼﻝ ‪ n‬ﺭﻣﻳﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﻥ ‪ X‬ﻳﺗﺑﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺛﻧﺎﺋﻲ ﺫﻭ ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻳﻁﻳﻥ ‪ n‬ﻭ ‪p‬‬

‫ﻭﻣﻧﻪ ﻳﻣﻛﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻧﻛﺗﺏ ) ‪  X  B (n , p‬‬

‫‪ .2‬ﺗﻌﻠﻡ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ‪  E (X ) = n . p‬‬
‫ﻭﻛﺫﻟﻙ ) ‪  .v (X ) = n . p .(1 - p‬‬

‫ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ ‪:26‬‬

‫ﻋﺩﺩ ﺃﻗﺳﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻧﻬﺎﺋﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺛﺎﻧﻭﻳﺔ ﻫﻭ ‪ 3‬ﻧﺭﻣﺯ ﻟﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺭﻣﻭﺯ ‪ T 1‬ﻭ ‪ T 2‬ﻭ ‪.T 3‬‬

‫‪ 30%‬ﻣﻥ ﺗﻼﻣﻳﺫ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻧﻬﺎﺋﻲ ﻳﺩﺭﺳﻭﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﺳﻡ ‪ ،T 1‬ﻭ ‪ 50%‬ﻣﻥ ﺗﻼﻣﻳﺫ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻧﻬﺎﺋﻲ ﻳﺩﺭﺳﻭﻥ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﺳﻡ ‪ T 2‬ﻭﺑﻘﻳﺔ ﺗﻼﻣﻳﺫ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻧﻬﺎﺋﻲ ﻳﺩﺭﺳﻭﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﺳﻡ ‪.T 3‬‬

‫‪ 25%‬ﻣﻥ ﺗﻼﻣﻳﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺳﻡ ‪ T 1‬ﻫﻡ ﺑﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﻳﺷﻛﻝ ﺍﻟﺑﻧﺎﺕ ﻧﺳﺑﺔ ‪ 40%‬ﻣﻥ ﺗﻼﻣﻳﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﺳﻡ ‪ ،T 2‬ﺑﻳﻧﻣﺎ ﻳﺷﻛﻠﻥ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﺳﻡ ‪ T 3‬ﻣﺎ ﻧﺳﺑﺗﻪ ‪. 80%‬‬

‫‪ .1‬ﻧﻌﻳّﻥ ﺑﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺷﻭﺍﺋﻳﺔ ﺗﻠﻣﻳﺫﺍ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻧﻬﺎﺋﻲ‪ .‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻧﻌﻳّﻥ ﺑﻧﺕ؟ ‪ ‬‬
‫‪ .2‬ﻋﻳّﻧﻧﺎ ﺑﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺷﻭﺍﺋﻳﺔ ﺗﻠﻣﻳﺫﺍ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻧﻬﺎﺋﻲ ﻓﺗﺑﻳّﻥ ﺃﻧّﻪ ﺑﻧﺕ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻛﻭﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺑﻧﺕ‬
‫ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﺳﻡ ‪ T 1‬؟ ‪ ‬‬
‫ﺣﻝ‪  :◌ّ - 26 -‬‬

‫ﻭﻧﻌﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ‪ » : F‬ﺗﻌﻳﻳﻥ ﺑﻧﺕ « ﻭﻟﺗﻛﻥ ‪G‬‬

‫ّ‬ ‫ﻧﺭﻣﺯ ﺑﺎﻟﺭﻣﺯ ‪ T‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ ﺗﻼﻣﻳﺫ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺗﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻧﻬﺎﺋﻲ‪،‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ﺍﻟﻧﺎﻓﻳﺔ ﻟﻬﺎ ﺃﻱ » ﺗﻌﻳﻳﻥ ﻭﻟﺩ«‬
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 ‫ﺃﻥ } ‪ {T1 ; T 2 ;T 3‬ﺗﺷﻛﻝ ﺗﺟﺯﺋﺔ ﻟﻠﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ ‪.T‬‬
‫ﻧﻼﺣﻅ ّ‬

‫ﻭ ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ﺃﻳﺿﺎ ﻣﻥ ﻣﻌﻁﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺄﻟﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫‪ p (T 1 ) = 0,3‬ﻭ ‪ p (T 2 ) = 0,5‬ﻭ ‪p (T 3 ) = 0, 2‬‬

‫‪ pT1 (F ) = 0,25‬ﻭ ‪ pT 2 (F ) = 0,4‬ﻭ ‪pT 3 (F ) = 0,8‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﻥ ﻳﻣﻛﻥ ﺗﺷﻛﻳﻝ ﺷﺟﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺎﺑﻠﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪ .1‬ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺗﻌﻳﻳﻥ ﺑﻧﺕ‪  .‬‬

‫ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ﺣﺳﺏ ﺩﺳﺗﻭﺭ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻛﻠﻳﺔ ) ‪P (F ) = P ( F ÇT 1 ) + P ( F ÇT 2 ) + P (F ÇT 3‬‬

‫ﻭﻣﻧﻪ ) ‪P (F ) = P (T1 ).PT1 ( F ) + P (T 2 ). PT 2 ( F ) + P (T 3 ).PT 3 (F‬‬

‫= ) ‪p (F‬‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ‪0,3´ 0,25 + 0,5´ 0,4 + 0,2 ´ 0,8 = 0, 435‬‬

‫‪ .2‬ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻛﻭﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺑﻧﺕ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﺳﻡ ‪  .T 1‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻣﻁﻠﻭﺏ ﻫﻧﺎ ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺷﺭﻁﻲ ) ‪p F (T 1‬‬

‫) ‪p ( F ÇT 1‬‬
‫= ) ‪p F (T1‬‬ ‫ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ‬
‫) ‪p (F‬‬

‫‪0,3´ 0,25 0,075‬‬

‫= ) ‪p F (T1‬‬ ‫=‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻧﻪ ‪= 0,032625‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬ ‫‪0,435‬‬ ‫‪0,435‬‬

‫ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ ‪:27‬‬

‫ﻳﺣﺗﻭﻱ ﻭﻋﺎء ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ n‬ﻛﺭﺓ ﺳﻭﺩﺍء ) * ‪ (n Î ‬ﻭ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﺑﻳﺿﺎﻭﻳﻥ‪ .‬ﻧﺳﺣﺏ ﻣﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻭﻋﺎء ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺗﻭﺍﻟﻲ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻹﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻗﺑﻝ ﺍﻟﺳﺣﺏ ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺍﻟﻲ‪.‬‬

‫‪ .1‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﺑﻳﺿﺎﻭﻳﻥ؟ ‪ ‬‬

‫‪ .2‬ﻧﺭﻣﺯ ﺑﺎﻟﺭﻣﺯ ‪ u n‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﻣﻥ ﻧﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﻠﻭﻥ‪  .‬‬
‫ﺃ( ﻋﺑﺭ ﻋﻥ ‪ u n‬ﺑﺩﻻﻟﺔ ‪  . n‬‬
‫ﺳﺭ ﺍﻟﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ‪  .‬‬
‫ﺏ( ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ‪ . lim u n‬ﻓ ّ‬
‫‪n +¥‬‬

‫‪ ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
‫‪40 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫ﺣ ّﻝ‪:- 27 -‬‬

‫‪ .1‬ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﺑﻳﺿﺎﻭﻳﻥ‪  .‬‬

‫ﻧﺳﻣﻲ ‪ A‬ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ‪ » :‬ﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﺑﻳﺿﺎﻭﻳﻥ «‬

‫‪A‬‬ ‫ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺳﺑﺔ ﻟﻠﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ‬

‫= ) ‪p (A‬‬
‫ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻣﻛﻧﺔ ﻟﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻧﻪ‬
‫‪2 ´1‬‬
‫= ) ‪p (A‬‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫)‪(n + 2)(n + 1‬‬

‫‪ .2‬ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﻣﻥ ﻧﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﻠﻭﻥ‪.‬‬

‫ﻧﺳﻣﻲ ‪ B‬ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ‪ » :‬ﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﻣﻥ ﻧﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﻠﻭﻥ «‬

‫ﻧﺳﻣﻲ ‪ N‬ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ‪ » :‬ﺳﺣﺏ ﻛﺭﺗﻳﻥ ﺳﻭﺩﺍﻭﻳﻥ «‬

‫ﺃ( ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ) ‪  p (B ) = p (A ) + p (N‬‬

‫‪2 ´1‬‬ ‫)‪n (n - 1‬‬ ‫‪n2 -n + 2‬‬
‫= ) ‪p (B‬‬ ‫‪+‬‬ ‫=‬ ‫ﺇﺫﻥ‬
‫‪(n + 2)(n + 1) (n + 2)(n + 1) n 2 + 3n + 2‬‬

‫‪n2 -n +2‬‬
‫‪.u n = 2‬‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫‪n + 3n + 2‬‬

‫ﺏ( ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ‪ lim u n‬ﻭﺗﻔﺳﻳﺭ ﺫﻟﻙ‪  .‬‬

‫‪n +¥‬‬

‫‪n2 -n +2‬‬
‫‪lim u n = lim 2‬‬ ‫ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ‪= 1‬‬
‫‪n +¥‬‬ ‫‪n +¥ n + 3n + 2‬‬

‫ﺳﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻧّﻪ ﻋﻧﺩﻣﺎ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻛﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺳﻭﺩﺍء ﻛﺑﻳﺭ ﺑﻣﺎ ﻓﻳﻪ ﻛﻔﺎﻳﺔ ّ‬
‫ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﻔ ّ‬
‫‪ N‬ﺗﺻﺑﺢ ﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ﺃﻛﻳﺩﺓ‪ .‬ﻭﺑﺗﻌﺑﻳﺭ ﺁﺧﺭ ﻓﻔﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻻ ﺗﺄﺛﻳﺭ ﻟﻛﺭﺗﻳﺔ ﺑﻳﺿﺎﻭﻳﻥ‪  .‬‬

‫ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ ‪:28‬‬

‫ﻣﺭﺓ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﻳﻛﻥ ‪ X‬ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬

‫‪ n‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﻁﺑﻳﻌﻲ ﻏﻳﺭ ﻣﻌﺩﻭﻡ‪ .‬ﻧﻠﻘﻲ ﻗﻁﻌﺔ ﻧﻘﺩﻳﺔ ﻣﺗﻭﺍﺯﻧﺔ ‪ّ 2n‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﻳﻅﻬﺭ ﻓﻳﻬﺎ ﻭﺟﻪ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻌﺔ ﺧﻼﻝ ‪ 2n‬ﺭﻣﻳﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻳﺣﺻﻲ ﻋﺩﺩ ّ‬
‫‪ .1‬ﻣﺎ ﻫﻭ ﻗﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ‪ X‬؟ ‪ ‬‬
‫ﻋﺑﺭ ﻋﻥ ﺃﻣﻠﻪ ﺍﻟﺭﻳﺎﺿﻳﺎﺗﻲ ﻭﺗﺑﺎﻳﻧﻪ ﺑﺩﻻﻟﺔ ‪  . n‬‬

‫‪ .2‬ﻧﺭﻣﺯ ﺑﺎﻟﺭﻣﺯ ‪ p n‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺻﻭﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﺟﻪ ‪ّ n‬‬

‫ﻣﺭﺓ‪  .‬‬

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 ‫ﺃ( ﻋﺑﺭ ﻋﻥ ‪ p n‬ﺑﺩﻻﻟﺔ ‪  . n‬‬
‫‪2n + 1‬‬
‫= ‪  . p n +1‬‬ ‫ﺏ( ﺃﺛﺑﺕ ﺃﻧّﻪ ﻣﻬﻣﺎ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﺑﻳﻌﻲ ‪ n‬ﻏﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺩﻭﻡ‪p n ،‬‬
‫‪2n + 2‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪  . pn ‬‬ ‫ﺝ( ﺑﺭﻫﻥ ﺑﺎﻟﺗﺭﺍﺟﻊ‪ ،‬ﺃﻧّﻪ ﻣﻬﻣﺎ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﺑﻳﻌﻲ ‪ n‬ﻏﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺩﻭﻡ‪،‬‬
‫‪2n + 1‬‬
‫ﺩ( ﺍﺩﺭﺱ ﺭﺗﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻣﺗﺗﺎﻟﻳﺔ * ‪ ( p n )n Î‬ﺛ ّﻡ ﺍﺳﺗﻧﺗﺞ ﺗﻘﺎﺭﺑﻬﺎ‪  .‬‬
‫ﻩ( ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻣﺗﺗﺎﻟﻳﺔ ‪  . ( p n )n Î‬‬
‫*‬

‫ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﻧﺗﺣﺻﻝ ﻓﻳﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﺟﻪ ﺃﻛﺑﺭ ﻣﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ّ‬‫‪ .3‬ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ّ‬
‫ﻧﺗﺣﺻﻝ ﻓﻳﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻅﻬﺭ‪.‬‬

‫‪ ‬ﺧﻼﺻﺔ‪ :‬ﻣﺑﺩﺃ ﺍﻟﺑﺭﻫﺎﻥ ﺑﺎﻟﺗﺭﺍﺟﻊ ﻳﺳﻣﺢ ﺑﺎﺳﺗﻧﺗﺎﺝ ﺃﻧّﻪ ﻣﻬﻣﺎ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﺑﻳﻌﻲ ﻏﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺩﻭﻡ‪،‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪  . pn ‬‬
‫‪2n + 1‬‬
‫ﺏ( ﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﺭﺗﺎﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻣﺗﺗﺎﻟﻳﺔ ‪ ( p n )n Î‬ﺛ ّﻡ ﺍﺳﺗﻧﺗﺞ ﺗﻘﺎﺭﺑﻬﺎ‪  .‬‬
‫*‬

‫‪p n+1‬‬ ‫‪2n + 1‬‬

‫ﻣﻊ ‪1 < 2n + 1 < 2n + 2‬‬ ‫=‬ ‫ﻟﻳﻛﻥ * ‪ ، n Î ‬ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ‪ p n > 0‬ﻭ‬
‫‪pn‬‬ ‫‪2n + 2‬‬

‫‪p n +1‬‬
‫‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻳﻌﻧﻲ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ‪ p n +1 < p n‬ﻣﻥ ﺃﺟﻝ ﻛﻝ ‪ n‬ﻣﻥ * ‪. ‬‬ ‫‪<1‬‬
‫‪pn‬‬

‫ﺧﻼﺻﺔ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻣﺗﺗﺎﻟﻳﺔ ) ‪ ( p n‬ﻣﺗﻧﺎﻗﺻﺔ ﺗﻣﺎﻣﺎ ﻭﻣﺣﺩﻭﺩﺓ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻷﺩﻧﻰ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﺩﺩ ﺻﻔﺭ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﺇﺫﻥ ﻣﺗﻘﺎﺭﺑﺔ‪  .‬‬

‫ﺝ( ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻣﺗﺗﺎﻟﻳﺔ ‪  . ( p n )n Î‬‬

‫*‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪ lim‬ﻧﺳﺗﻧﺗﺞ‬ ‫‪ 0  p n  1‬ﻭﺣﻳﺙ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ‪= 0‬‬ ‫ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ﻣﻥ ﺃﺟﻝ ﻛﻝ ‪ n‬ﻣﻥ * ‪، ‬‬
‫‪n +¥‬‬ ‫‪2n + 1‬‬ ‫‪2n + 1‬‬
‫ﺣﺳﺏ ﻣﺑﺭﻫﻧﺔ ﺍﻟﺣﺻﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻧﻬﺎﻳﺎﺕ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ‪. lim p n = 0‬‬
‫‪n +¥‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﻧﺗﺣﺻﻝ ﻓﻳﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﺟﻪ ﺃﻛﺑﺭ ﻣﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ّ‬
‫‪ .2‬ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ّ‬
‫ﻧﺗﺣﺻﻝ ﻓﻳﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻅﻬﺭ‪  .‬‬
‫ّ‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﻧﺗﺣﺻﻝ ﻓﻳﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﺟﻪ ﺃﻛﺑﺭ ﻣﻥ‬
‫»ﺍﻟﺣﺻﻭﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺩﺩ ّ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﻧﺗﺣﺻﻝ ﻓﻳﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻅﻬﺭ«‬
‫ﻋﺩﺩ ّ‬
‫ﺗﻘﺎﺑﻝ ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻧﻰ ) ‪. (X > n‬‬

‫ﻧﺿﻊ ﻻﻋﺗﺑﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺗﻘﻧﻳﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺣﺳﺎﺑﺎﺕ ) ‪ q k = P (X = k‬ﺣﻳﺙ ‪ k‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﻁﺑﻳﻌﻲ ﻳﺣﻘﻖ ‪. 0  k  2n‬‬

‫‪42 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫÷‪1 æç2n ö÷ 1 æç 2n ö‬‬
‫= ‪qk‬‬ ‫‪ç ÷= ç‬‬ ‫ﺇﺫﻥ ‪÷ = q 2 n -k‬‬
‫÷÷‪4n èç k ø÷÷ 4n èç2n - k ø‬‬

‫‪2n‬‬ ‫‪2n‬‬ ‫‪2n‬‬

‫ﻭﻣﻧﻪ ‪P (X > n ) = å P (X = k ) = å q k = å q 2 n -k‬‬
‫‪k =n +1‬‬ ‫‪k =n +1‬‬ ‫‪k =n +1‬‬

‫‪n -1‬‬
‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ) ‪P (X > n ) = q n -1 + q n -2 + q n -3 + ... + q1 + q 0 = å q k = P (X < n‬‬
‫‪k =0‬‬

‫ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ﻣﻥ ﺟﻬﺔ ﺃﺧﺭﻯ ﺍﻷﺣﺩﺍﺙ ) ‪ (X = n ) ، (X < n‬ﻭ ) ‪ (X > n‬ﺗﺷﻛﻝ ﺗﺟﺯﺋﺔ ﻟﻠﻔﺿﺎء ‪. W‬‬

‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ﻳﻧﺗﺞ ﻣﻥ ﺫﻟﻙ ّ‬

‫ﺃﻥ ‪P (X < n ) + P (X = n ) + P (X > n ) = 1‬‬

‫ﻭﻣﻧﻪ ) ‪2P (X > n ) = 1 - P (X = n‬‬

‫‪1 p‬‬
‫ﻭﺃﺧﻳﺭﺍ ﻧﺟﺩ ‪. P (X > n ) = - n‬‬
‫‪2 2‬‬

‫ﺣ ّﻝ‪:- 28 -‬‬

‫ﻣﺭﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﻧﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﺷﺭﻭﻁ ﻭﺑﺻﻔﺔ ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻠﺔ ﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﻣﺧﺭﺟﻳﻥ ﻭﻫﻲ ﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ ﺇﻟﻘﺎء‬
‫‪ .3‬ﻧﻛﺭﺭ ‪ّ 2n‬‬
‫ﻣﺭﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﻧﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﺷﺭﻭﻁ ﻭﺑﺻﻔﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻧﻘﺩﻳﺔ‪ .‬ﺇﺫﻥ ﻧﺣﻥ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ ﺑﺭﻧﻭﻟﻲ ﻣﻛﺭﺭﺓ ‪ّ 2n‬‬
‫ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻠﺔ‪  .‬‬
‫ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻧﻘﺩﻳﺔ ﻣﺗﻭﺍﺯﻧﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻧﻪ ّ‬
‫ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻭﺟﻪ ﻫﻭ ‪ p = 0,5‬ﻭﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻅﻬﺭ ﻫﻭ‬
‫‪. q = 1 - p = 0,5‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﻳﻅﻬﺭ ﻓﻳﻬﺎ ﻭﺟﻪ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﻌﺔ ﺧﻼﻝ ‪2n‬‬

‫ﺃﻥ ‪ X‬ﻫﻭ ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻳﺣﺻﻲ ﻋﺩﺩ ّ‬ ‫ﺑﻣﺎ ّ‬
‫ﺭﻣﻳﺔ‪ّ ،‬‬
‫ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﺧﻳﺭ ﻳﺗﺑﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺛﻧﺎﺋﻲ )‪ B (2n ; 0,5‬ﺫﻭ ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻳﻁﻳﻥ ‪ 2n‬ﻭ ‪. p = 0,5‬‬

‫ﻭﻣﻧﻪ } ‪X (W) = {0, 1, 2, . . . , 2n‬‬

‫‪æ2n ö‬‬ ‫‪1 æ2n ö‬‬

‫÷÷÷ ‪p (X = k ) = çç ÷÷÷ p k (1 - p ) 2 n -k = n çç‬‬ ‫ﻭ‬
‫‪çè k ÷ø‬‬ ‫÷‪4 èç k ø‬‬

‫‪n‬‬
‫= ‪  .V (X ) = 2npq‬‬ ‫ﻭﻳﻧﺗﺞ ﺑﺎﻟﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻣﺑﺎﺷﺭ ‪ E (X ) = 2np = n‬ﻭ‬
‫‪2‬‬

‫‪  .4‬‬
‫ﺃ( ﺍﻟﺗﻌﺑﻳﺭ ﻋﻥ ‪ p n‬ﺑﺩﻻﻟﺔ ‪  . n‬‬
‫÷‪1 æç2n ö‬‬
‫= ) ‪  . p n = p (X = n‬‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻣﺑﺎﺷﺭ ﻧﺟﺩ ÷ ‪ç‬‬
‫‪4n çè n ÷÷ø‬‬

‫‪43 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫‪2n + 1‬‬
‫= ‪  . p n +1‬‬ ‫ﺏ( ﺇﺛﺑﺎﺕ ﺃﻧّﻪ ﻣﻬﻣﺎ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﺑﻳﻌﻲ ‪ n‬ﻏﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺩﻭﻡ‪p n ،‬‬
‫‪2n + 2‬‬
‫‪1 æç2n + 2ö÷ 1 1‬‬ ‫!)‪(2n + 2‬‬ ‫ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ‬
‫= ‪p n +1‬‬ ‫‪çç‬‬ ‫‪÷÷ = ´ n‬‬
‫‪n +1‬‬ ‫÷‬
‫!)‪4 è n + 1 ø 4 4 ( n + 1)!(2n + 2 - n -1‬‬

‫!) ‪1 1 (2n + 2)(2n + 1)(2n )! 1 1 2(2n + 1)(2n‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻧﻪ‬

‫‪p n +1 = ´ n‬‬ ‫´ =‬
‫!) ‪4 4 ( n + 1)( n )!( n + 1)( n )! 4 4 n ( n + 1)( n )!(n‬‬

‫‪1 æç2n ö÷ 2n + 1‬‬

‫‪  . p n +1 = 2n + 1‬‬ ‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫=÷ ‪ç‬‬ ‫‪pn‬‬
‫‪2n + 2 4n çè n ÷÷ø 2n + 2‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪  . pn ‬‬ ‫ﺝ( ﻧﺑﺭﻫﻥ ﺑﺎﻟﺗﺭﺍﺟﻊ ﺃﻧّﻪ ﻣﻬﻣﺎ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﺑﻳﻌﻲ ‪ n‬ﻏﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺩﻭﻡ‪،‬‬
‫‪2n + 1‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪ ، p n ‬ﺣﻳﺙ * ‪. n Î ‬‬ ‫ﻧﺭﻣﺯ ﺑﺎﻟﺭﻣﺯ ) ‪ P (n‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻣﺗﺑﺎﻳﻧﺔ‬
‫‪2n + 1‬‬

‫‪ ‬ﺑﺩﺍﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺗﺭﺍﺟﻊ‪ :‬ﻧﺗﺣﻘﻖ ﻣﻥ ﺻﺣﺔ )‪  . P (1‬‬

‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪  . p1 ‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻧﻪ‬ ‫ّ‬
‫ﻷﻥ ‪3  4‬‬ ‫‪‬‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ = ‪ p1‬ﻭ‬
‫‪2 ´1 + 1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2 ´1 + 1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬

‫‪ ‬ﺑﺭﻫﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺗﺭﺍﺟﻊ )ﺗﻭﺭﻳﺙ ﺍﻟﺧﺎﺻﻳﺔ(‪  :‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪pk ‬‬ ‫ﺃﻥ ) ‪ P (k‬ﺻﺣﻳﺣﺔ ﺃﻱ ﻧﻔﺭﺽ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ‬ ‫ﻟﻳﻛﻥ * ‪ . k Î ‬ﻧﻔﺭﺽ ّ‬
‫‪2k + 1‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪p k +1 ‬‬ ‫ﻭﻧﺑﺭﻫﻥ ﺻﺣﺔ )‪. P (k + 1‬ﺃﻱ ﻧﺑﺭﻫﻥ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ‬
‫‪2k + 3‬‬

‫‪2n + 1‬‬
‫= ‪ p n +1‬ﻭﻣﻥ ﻓﺭﺿﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺗﺭﺍﺟﻊ ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ‬ ‫ﺣﺳﺏ ﺟﻭﺍﺏ ﺍﻟﺳﺅﺍﻝ ‪ .2‬ﺏ( ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ ‪p n‬‬
‫‪2n + 2‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪. pk ‬‬
‫‪2k + 1‬‬

‫‪2k + 1‬‬ ‫‪2k + 1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬

‫‪. p k +1 ‬‬ ‫‪ p k +1 ‬ﺃﻱ‬ ‫´‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻧﻪ ﻳﻧﺗﺞ‪:‬‬
‫‪2k + 2‬‬ ‫‪2k + 2‬‬ ‫‪2k + 1‬‬

‫‪2k + 1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬

‫‪‬‬ ‫ﻹﺛﺑﺎﺕ ﺻﺣﺔ )‪ ، P (k + 1‬ﻳﻛﻔﻲ ﺇﺛﺑﺎﺕ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ‬
‫‪2k + 2‬‬ ‫‪2k + 3‬‬

‫ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ﺇﺛﺑﺎﺕ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ‪. 2k + 1 2k + 3  2k + 2‬‬
‫ﻧﻌﻠﻡ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ‪:‬‬

‫‪44 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫‪(2k + 1)(2k + 3) - (2k + 2) 2 = 4k 2 + 8k + 3 - (4k 2 + 8k + 4) = -1‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﻥ‬
‫‪0 < (2k + 1)(2k + 3) < (2k + 2) 2‬‬

‫ﻭﻣﻧﻪ‬

‫‪2k + 1 2k + 3 < 2 k + 2‬‬

‫ﻭﻫﻛﺫﺍ ﻧﺟﺩ‬

‫‪2k + 1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬

‫‪‬‬
‫‪2k + 2‬‬ ‫‪2k + 3‬‬

‫‪ p k +1  2k + 1 ‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻳﻌﻧﻲ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ )‪ P (k + 1‬ﺻﺣﻳﺣﺔ‪  .‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫ﻭﺃﺧﻳﺭﺍ ﻳﻧﺗﺞ‬
‫‪2k + 2‬‬ ‫‪2k + 3‬‬

‫ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ ‪:29‬‬

‫ﺃﺭﺍﺩﺕ ﻗﺭﺭﺕ ﻭﻛﺎﻟﺔ ﻟﻧﻘﻝ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭﻳﻥ ﺑﺎﻟﺣﺎﻓﻼﺕ ﺗﺣﺳﻳﻥ ﻋﻣﻠﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﻗﺑﺔ ﺑﻐﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺗﻘﻠﻳﻝ ﻣﻥ‬
‫ﺧﺳﺎﺋﺭﻫﺎ ﺟﺭﺍء ﻏﺵ ﺑﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭﻳﻥ‪ .‬ﻟﺫﻟﻙ ﻗﺎﻣﺕ ﺑﺩﺭﺍﺳﺔ ﻣﺑﻧﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﻗﺑﺔ ﺍﻟﻳﻭﻣﻳﺔ ﻟﻣﺳﺎﺭﻳﻥ ﻣﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﺳﺗﻌﻣﻠﻬﺎ ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻟﻣﺩّﺓ ﻋﺷﺭﻳﻥ ﻳﻭﻣﺎ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﻣﺭﺍﻗﺑﺔ ﺃﺭﺑﻌﻳﻥ ﻣﺳﺎﺭﺍ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻣﺟﻣﻭﻉ‪ .‬ﻧﻔﺭﺽ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺗﻌﺭﺽ ﺃﻱ ﻣﺳﺎﻓﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﻗﺑﺔ ﻫﻭ ‪. p‬‬ ‫ﻋﻣﻠﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﻗﺑﺔ ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻠﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺑﻌﺿﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺑﻌﺽ ﻭ ّ‬

‫ﺳﻣﻳﺭ ﺳﻳﺊ ﺍﻟﻁﺑﻊ ﻓﻬﻭ ﻳﻐﺵ ﺑﺻﻔﺔ ﺩﺍﺋﻣﺔ ﻋﻧﺩﻣﺎ ﻳﺳﺗﻘﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻓﻠﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻟﻳﻛﻥ ‪ X i‬ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻳﺄﺧﺫ ﺍﻟﻘﻳﻣﺔ ‪ 1‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﺗﻌﺭﺽ ﺳﻣﻳﺭ ﻟﻠﻣﺭﺍﻗﺑﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺎﺭ ﺫﻱ ﺍﻟﺭﺗﺑﺔ ‪i‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻳﻣﺔ ‪ 0‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﺭﻯ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺭﻑ ﻛﻣﺎ ﻳﻠﻲ‪. X = X 1 + X 2 + ... + X 40 :‬‬

‫ّ‬ ‫ﻟﻳﻛﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺷﻭﺍﺋﻲ‬

‫‪ .1‬ﺑﻳّﻥ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ‪ X‬ﻳﻣﺛﻝ ﻋﺩﺩ ّ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﺗﻡ ﻓﻳﻬﺎ ﻣﺭﺍﻗﺑﺔ ﺳﻣﻳﺭ‪ ،‬ﻋﻳﻥ ﻗﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ‪  . X‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫=‪  .p‬‬ ‫‪ .2‬ﻧﻔﺭﺽ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺳﺅﺍﻝ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ‬
‫‪20‬‬
‫ﺃ( ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﻷﻣﻝ ﺍﻟﺭﻳﺎﺿﻳﺎﺗﻲ ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ‪  . X‬‬
‫ﺏ( ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ )‪ p (X = 1) ، p (X = 0‬ﻭ )‪  . p (X = 2‬‬
‫ﺝ( ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺑﺗﻘﺭﻳﺏ ﻗﺩﺭﻩ ‪ ،10-4‬ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺗﻌﺭﺽ ﺳﻣﻳﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺛﻼﺙ ﻣﺭﺍﻗﺑﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻝ‪  .‬‬
‫‪45 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫ﺣ ّﻝ‪:- 29 -‬‬

‫‪  .1‬‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻐﺷﺎﺵ ﺳﻣﻳﺭ ﻳﻐﺵ ﺑﺻﻔﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﺗﻡ ﻓﻳﻬﺎ ﻣﺭﺍﻗﺑﺔ ﺳﻣﻳﺭ‪ .‬ﻧﻌﻠﻡ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ‪ X‬ﻳﻣﺛﻝ ﻋﺩﺩ ّ‬ ‫‪ ‬ﺇﺛﺑﺎﺕ ّ‬
‫ﻣﺭﺓ ﻳﺗﻌﺭﺽ ﻓﻳﻬﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﻗﺑﺔ ﻳُﺿﺑﻁ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻏﺵ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﺩﺍﺋﻣﺔ ﻋﻧﺩﻣﺎ ﻳﺳﺗﻘﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﻓﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﻥ ﻛﻝ ّ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﻌﺭﺽ ﻓﻳﻬﺎ ﺳﻣﻳﺭ‬
‫ﻳﺄﺧﺫ ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ‪ X i‬ﺍﻟﻘﻳﻣﺔ ‪ .1‬ﺑﺟﻣﻊ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﻳﻡ ﻧﺣﺻﻝ ﺑﺎﻟﻔﻌﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺩﺩ ّ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻣﺭﺍﻗﺑﺔ‪ .‬ﺃﻱ ‪ X‬ﻳﻣﺛﻝ ﻋﺩﺩ ّ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﺗﻡ ﻓﻳﻬﺎ ﻣﺭﺍﻗﺑﺔ ﺳﻣﻳﺭ‪.‬‬
‫‪ ‬ﺗﻌﻳﻳﻥ ﻗﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻐﻳﺭ ‪  . X‬‬
‫ﻳﻣﺛﻝ ‪ X‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻧﺟﺎﺣﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ‪ 40‬ﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ ﻟﺑﺭﻧﻭﻟﻲ )ﻛﻝ ﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ ﻫﻲ ﻣﺭﺍﻗﺑﺔ ﻟﻣﺳﺎﺭﻳﻥ ﻭﻟﻬﺎ‬

‫ﻣﺧﺭﺟﻳﻥ ﻫﻣﺎ‪ ،‬ﻣﺭﺍﻗﺑﺔ ﺳﻣﻳﺭ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ﺿﺑﻁﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻏﺵ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﻛﺱ ﺃﻱ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺗﻌﺭﺽ‬

‫ﺳﻣﻳﺭ ﻟﻠﻣﺭﺍﻗﺑﺔ( ﻣﻛﺭﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﺷﺭﻭﻁ ﻭﻣﺳﺗﻘﻠﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺑﻌﺿﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺑﻌﺽ‪.‬‬

‫ﺇﺫﻥ ‪ X‬ﻳﺗﺑﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺛﻧﺎﺋﻲ ) ‪ B (40, p‬ﺫﻭ ﺍﻟﻭﺳﻳﻁﻳﻥ ‪ 40‬ﻭ ‪  . p‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫=‪  .p‬‬ ‫‪ .2‬ﻧﻔﺭﺽ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ‬
‫‪20‬‬
‫ﺃ( ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ }‪  . X (W) = {1,2,...,40‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫´ ‪  . E (X ) = np = 40 p = 40‬‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻣﻝ ﺍﻟﺭﻳﺎﺿﻳﺎﺗﻲ ﻫﻭ ‪= 2‬‬
‫‪20‬‬

‫ﺏ( ﺑﻣﺎ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ‪ X‬ﻳﺗﺑﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺛﻧﺎﺋﻲ ) ‪  B (40, p‬‬
‫‪æ40ö‬‬
‫ﻓﺈﻥ ‪ P (X = k ) = çç ÷÷÷ p k (1 - p ) 40-k‬ﻣﻊ }‪k Î {1,2,...,40‬‬
‫ّ‬
‫‪çè k ÷ø‬‬

‫‪æ40ö 1‬‬ ‫‪19‬‬

‫ﻭﻣﻧﻪ ‪P (X = k ) = çç ÷÷÷ ( ) k ( ) 40-k‬‬
‫‪çè k ÷ø 20 20‬‬

‫‪æ40ö 1 19‬‬
‫ﻣﻥ ﺃﺟﻝ ‪. P (X = 0) = ççç ÷÷÷ ( )0 ( ) 40 ، X = 0‬‬
‫‪è 0 ÷ø 20‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬

‫‪æ40ö 1 19‬‬
‫ﻣﻥ ﺃﺟﻝ ‪. P (X = 1) = ççç ÷÷÷ ( )1 ( )39 ، X = 1‬‬
‫‪è 1 ÷ø 20‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬

‫‪46 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫‪æ40ö 1 19‬‬
‫ﻣﻥ ﺃﺟﻝ ‪  . P (X = 2) = ççç ÷÷÷ ( )2 ( )38 ، X = 2‬‬
‫‪è 2 ÷ø 20‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬

‫ﺝ( ﺣﺳﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺗﻌﺭﺽ ﺳﻣﻳﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺛﻼﺙ ﻣﺭﺍﻗﺑﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻝ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺑﺗﻘﺭﻳﺏ ﻗﺩﺭﻩ ‪10-4‬‬
‫‪ .‬‬
‫ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻣﻁﻠﻭﺏ ﺣﺳﺎﺑﻪ ﻫﻧﺎ ﻫﻭ )‪. P (X > 2‬‬

‫ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ )‪P (X > 2) = 1 - P (X  2‬‬

‫ﻭﺣﻳﺙ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ))‪P (X  2) = (P ( X = 0) + P (X = 1) + P (X = 2‬‬

‫ّ‬
‫ﻓﺈﻥ ))‪P (X > 2) = 1 - (P (X = 0) + P ( X = 1) + P (X = 2‬‬

‫‪ææ40ö 1 0 19 40 æ40ö 1 1 19 39 æ40ö 1 2 19 38 ÷ö‬‬

‫‪. P (X > 2) = 1 - ççççç‬‬ ‫ﺃﻱ ÷÷ ) ( ) ( ÷÷÷ ‪÷÷ ( ) ( ) + çç ÷÷÷ ( ) ( ) + çç‬‬
‫‪çèè 0 ø÷ 20 20‬‬
‫‪ç‬‬ ‫‪èç 1 ø 20 20‬‬ ‫÷‪èç 2 ø 20 20 ø‬‬

‫ﻭﻣﻧﻪ )‪P (X > 2) » 1 - (0,1285... + 0,2705... + 0,2776...‬‬

‫ﻭﺃﺧﻳﺭﺍ ﻧﺟﺩ ‪  . P (X > 2) » 1 - 0,6767... » 0,3232... » 0,3233‬‬

‫ﺗﻣﺭﻳﻥ ‪:30‬‬

‫ﺗﺣﺗﻭﻱ ﻗﺎﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻏﺎﺯ ﻳﺗﻛﻭﻥ ﻣﻥ ‪ 75%‬ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﺟﺯﻳﺋﺎﺕ ‪ A‬ﻭ ‪ 25%‬ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﺟﺯﻳﺋﺎﺕ ‪ . B‬ﺗﻘﺫﻑ ﻫﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺟﺯﻳﺋﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻋﺑﺭ ﻣﺻﻔﺎﺓ‪ ،‬ﻧﺣﻭ ﺧﺯﺍﻧﻳﻥ ‪ K 1‬ﻭ ‪ . K 2‬ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺩﺧﻝ ﺇﺣﺩﻯ ﺟﺯﻳﺋﺎﺕ‬

‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪ .‬ﺑﻳﻧﻣﺎ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺩﺧﻝ ﺇﺣﺩﻯ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ ‪ A‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺧﺯﺍﻥ ‪ K 1‬ﻫﻭ ﻭﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺩﺧﻭﻟﻬﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺧﺯﺍﻥ ‪ K 2‬ﻫﻭ‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫ﺟﺯﻳﺋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ ‪ B‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻱ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﺧﺯﺍﻧﻳﻥ ﻫﻭ ‪.‬‬
‫‪2‬‬

‫‪ .1‬ﻧﻌﺗﺑﺭ ﺟﺯﺋﻳﺔ ﻛﻳﻔﻳﺔ ﻣﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﺯ‪ ،‬ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻷﺣﺩﺍﺙ ﺍﻵﺗﻳﺔ‪  :‬‬
‫‪ : A1‬ﺍﻟﺟﺯﻳﺋﺔ ﻫﻲ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ ‪ A‬ﻭﺗﺩﺧﻝ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺧﺯﺍﻥ ‪. K 1‬‬

‫‪ : A 2‬ﺍﻟﺟﺯﻳﺋﺔ ﻫﻲ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ ‪ A‬ﻭﺗﺩﺧﻝ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺧﺯﺍﻥ ‪. K 2‬‬

‫‪ : B 1‬ﺍﻟﺟﺯﻳﺋﺔ ﻫﻲ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ ‪ B‬ﻭﺗﺩﺧﻝ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺧﺯﺍﻥ ‪. K 1‬‬

‫‪47 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫‪ : B 2‬ﺍﻟﺟﺯﻳﺋﺔ ﻫﻲ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ ‪ B‬ﻭﺗﺩﺧﻝ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺧﺯﺍﻥ ‪. K 2‬‬

‫‪ :C 1‬ﺍﻟﺟﺯﻳﺋﺔ ﺗﺩﺧﻝ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺧﺯﺍﻥ ‪. K 1‬‬

‫‪ :C 2‬ﺍﻟﺟﺯﻳﺋﺔ ﺗﺩﺧﻝ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺧﺯﺍﻥ ‪  . K 2‬‬

‫‪ .2‬ﻧﻘﺫﻑ ‪ 5‬ﺟﺯﻳﺋﺎﺕ ﻣﺗﺗﺎﻟﻳﺔ ﻋﺑﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻣﺻﻔﺎﺓ ﻭﺑﺻﻔﺔ ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻠﺔ‪ .‬ﻧﻌﺗﺑﺭ ّ‬

‫ﺃﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺟﺯﻳﺋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﻘﺫﻭﻓﺔ ﻛﺎﻑ‬
‫ﺑﻣﺎ ﻳﺣﺎﻓﻅ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻧﺳﺑﺗﻳﻥ ‪ 75%‬ﻭ ‪ 25%‬ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺗﺟﺭﺑﺔ‪ .‬ﺍﺣﺳﺏ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ » ﺗﻭﺟﺩ ﺟﺯﻳﺋﺔ ﻭﺍﺣﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻝ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺧﺯﺍﻥ ‪  « K 2‬‬
‫ﺣ ّﻝ‪:- 30 -‬‬

‫‪ .1‬ﻧﺷﻛﻝ ّﺃﻭﻻ ﺷﺟﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ ﺑﻧﺎء ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻣﻌﻁﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻭﻓﺭﺓ‪.‬‬

‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫= ) ‪p (B‬‬ ‫ﻟﺩﻳﻧﺎ = ) ‪ p (A‬ﻭ‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫= ) ‪p A (k 2‬‬ ‫= ) ‪ p A (k 1‬ﻭ‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫= ) ‪. p B (k 1 ) = p B (k 2‬‬ ‫ﻭ‬
‫‪2‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ‪ A1‬ﻫﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﻁﻊ ﺗﺣﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺗﻳﻥ‪:‬‬

‫» ﺍﻟﺟﺯﻳﺋﺔ ﻫﻲ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻭﻉ ‪ « A‬ﻭ» ﺍﻟﺟﺯﻳﺋﺔ ﺗﺩﺧﻝ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺧﺯﺍﻥ ‪« K 1‬‬

‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬

‫= ´ = ) ‪. p (A1 ) = p (A Ç k 1 ) = p (A ). p A (k 1‬‬ ‫ﻭﻣﻧﻪ ﻧﻛﺗﺏ‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬

‫ﻧﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﺷﻲء ﺑﺎﻟﻧﺳﺑﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ A 2‬ﻭ ‪ B 1‬ﻭ ‪ B 2‬ﺣﻳﺙ ﻳﻧﺗﺞ‪:‬‬

‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬

‫= ´ = ) ‪، p (A 2 ) = p (A Ç k 2 ) = p (A ). p A (k 2‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬

‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬

‫= ´ = ) ‪، p (B 1 ) = p (B Ç k 1 ) = p (B ). p B (k 1‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬

‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬

‫= ´ = ) ‪، p (B 2 ) = p (B Ç k 2 ) = p (B ). p B (k 2‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬

‫‪48 ‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬
 ‫ﺃﻥ ‪ A‬ﻭ‪ B‬ﺗﺷﻛﻼﻥ ﺗﺟﺯﺋﺔ ﻟﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻹﻣﻛﺎﻧﻳﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻧّﻪ ﻳﻧﺗﺞ ﺣﺳﺏ ﻗﺎﻧﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻛﻠﻳﺔ‬
‫ﺑﻣﺎ ّ‬
‫‪1 1 3‬‬
‫= ‪p (C 1 ) = p (A Ç k 1 ) + p (B Ç k 1 ) = p (A1 ) + p (B 1 ) = +‬‬
‫‪4 8 8‬‬

‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫= ‪. p (C 2) = 1 - p (C 1) = 1 -‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬

‫ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ّ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺗﺩﺧﻝ ﻛﻝ ﻭﺍﺣﺩﺓ ﻣﻧﻬﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺧﺯﺍﻥ ‪ K 1‬ﻫﻭ‬ ‫‪ .2‬ﻋﻧﺩ ﻗﺫﻑ ‪ 5‬ﺟﺯﻳﺋﺎﺕ ﻋﺑﺭ ﺍﻟﻣﺻﻔﺎﺕ‪ّ ،‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫‪ .‬‬
‫‪8‬‬
‫‪5‬‬
‫‪æ 3ö‬‬
‫ﻫﻭ ÷÷÷ ‪. ççç‬‬ ‫ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺟﺯﻳﺋﺎﺕ ﻣﺳﺗﻘﻠﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺑﻌﺿﻬﺎ‪ّ ،‬‬
‫ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺩﺧﻭﻟﻬﺎ ﺟﻣﻌﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺧﺯﺍﻥ ‪K 1‬‬ ‫ﻭﺑﻣﺎ ّ‬
‫‪è8ø‬‬

‫ﻫﻭ‬ ‫ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺗﺣﻘﻖ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺩﺛﺔ ﺍﻟﻧﺎﻓﻳﺔ » ﺗﻭﺟﺩ ﺟﺯﻳﺋﺔ ﻭﺍﺣﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗﻝ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺧﺯﺍﻥ ‪« K 2‬‬
‫‪5‬‬
‫‪æ 3ö‬‬
‫÷÷÷ ‪.1 - ççç‬‬
‫‪è8ø‬‬

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