venit dobanzi depozit

venit dinamica
cerere populatie preturilor
t x1 x2 yt y estimat u (reziduri) u^2
1 0.5 4.1 0.3 0.2020808939 0.09792 0.0095881513
2 1 4.2 0.8 0.6493336313 0.15067 0.0227003547
3 1.2 4 0.3 0.5208974302 -0.22090 0.0487956747
4 -0.3 4.1 -0.5 -0.3086319553 -0.19137 0.0366217285
5 2.1 3.8 0.8 0.8393349721 -0.03933 0.00154724
6 2.3 4.2 1.4 1.4792420112 -0.07924 0.0062792963
7 1.2 3.8 0.2 0.2647830168 -0.06478 0.0041968393
8 1 4 0.7 0.3932192179 0.30678 0.0941144483
9 0.8 3.9 0 0.1374837989 -0.13748 0.018901795
10 0 3.8 -0.7 -0.501286257 -0.19871 0.0394871517
11 -0.6 3.6 -1 -1.1404353073 0.14044 0.0197220755
12 2.2 4.2 1.3 1.415402905 -0.11540 0.0133178305
13 1.4 4 1 0.6485756425 0.35142 0.1234990791
suma 12.8 51.7 4.6 4.6 0.000000 0.438772
0.35384615 (Su)2= 0.43877

(Su)2= 0.438772
R 2= 0.93502

3 1.2 3
2 2.8 0.5
0.8 1.5 1.5 estimatori 1.280572067 0.6383910615
2.5 0.2 3 abatri 0.3591026972 0.0734351712
2 1.8 1 r patrat 0.9350190061 0.2094687721
1.4 4 0 71.945575956 10
2.5 1.8 3.1 6.3135360275 0.4387716648
2.5 2 1.8
3 0.3 3
1.4 2.8 0.7
1 3.2 0.5
1.2 2.5 1
1.6 1.3 1.4
ani EX_SITC7 IM_SITC7 ISD ISD estimat u (reziduri)
1990 1.30 2.30 0.00
1991 1.19 0.94 0.04
1992 0.97 1.16 0.12
1993 0.84 1.41 0.22
1994 0.88 1.80 0.40
1995 1.04 2.55 0.82
1996 1.10 2.93 1.10
1997 1.18 2.99 2.42
1998 1.21 3.23 4.53
1999 1.41 2.90 5.67
2000 1.95 3.81 6.95
2001 2.26 4.34 8.34
2002 2.94 5.04 7.85
2003 3.79 7.08 12.20
2004 5.57 10.64 20.49
2005 7.04 13.43 25.38
2006 9.68 18.10 44.52
2007 13.80 27.02 61.61
2008 17.77 30.33 64.76
2009 17.46 18.48 69.88
2010 20.89 21.94 68.09
2011 25.89 26.55 69.51
2012 23.40 23.78 76.33
2013 27.69 25.97 82.69
2014 29.56 27.71 74.73
suma 220.81 286.42 708.65 4.6 -6.439849E-13

DW

venit dobanzi depozit

 venit dinamica
cerere populatie preturilor
t x1 x2 yt yt estimat u (reziduri) u^2
1 0.5 4.1 0.3 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
2 1 4.2 0.8 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
3 1.2 4 0.3 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
4 -0.3 4.1 -0.5 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
5 2.1 3.8 0.8 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
6 2.3 4.2 1.4 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
7 1.2 3.8 0.2 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
8 1 4 0.7 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
9 0.8 3.9 0 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
10 0 3.8 -0.7 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
11 -0.6 3.6 -1 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
12 2.2 4.2 1.3 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
13 1.4 4 1 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
suma 12.8 51.7 4.6 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!

0.35384615 (Su)2= #VALUE!

a2
1.280572067

testul Lagrange

ut x1 x2 u t-1 u t-2
0.097919 0.5 4.1
0.150666 1 4.2 0.097919
-0.220897 1.2 4 0.150666 0.097919
-0.191368 -0.3 4.1 -0.220897 0.150666
-0.039335 2.1 3.8 -0.191368 -0.220897
-0.079242 2.3 4.2 -0.039335 -0.191368
-0.064783 1.2 3.8 -0.079242 -0.039335
0.306781 1 4 -0.064783 -0.079242
-0.137484 0.8 3.9 0.306781 -0.064783
-0.198714 0 3.8 -0.137484 0.306781
0.140435 -0.6 3.6 -0.198714 -0.137484
-0.115403 2.2 4.2 0.140435 -0.198714
0.351424 1.4 4 -0.115403 0.140435
e pe post de y
a4 a3 a2 a1
-0.1815457 -0.4005134249 -0.1112103171 0.02282368
0.54693001 0.4822050299 0.5116687884 0.112896597
Rpatrat= 0.14660983 0.2387797588 #N/A #N/A

n-p=13-2 11 1.6127081249
5.9914645471
 (y-ymed) la patrat x
0.0029 1 0.5 4.1 1 1 1
0.1991 1 1 4.2 0.5 1 1.2
0.0029 1 1.2 4 4.1 4.2 4
0.7291 1 -0.3 4.1
0.1991 1 2.1 3.8 xtrans * x
1.0944 1 2.3 4.2 13 12.8 51.7
0.0237 1 1.2 3.8 12.8 22.72 51.82
0.1198 1 1 4 51.7 51.82 206.03
0.1252 1 0.8 3.9
1.1106 1 0 3.8 se poate sterge x transpus - am adaugat transpus in f
1.8329 1 -0.6 3.6 trebuie ctrl+shift+enter
0.8952 1 2.2 4.2
0.4175 1 1.4 4
6.752308 44.59641
formula care calculeaza A estimat 0.936536
1.280572 0.638391 -5.3674601117 -11.4263

S2(A)
93,5% din variatia fata de medie
( 1.956764 0.0410925597 -0.5013547214
0.041093 0.0053927244 -0.0116678946
-0.50135 -0.0116678946 0.1289547472

-5.3674601117 1.280572 0.6383910615 -5.3674601117

1.3988437945 0.359103 0.0734351712 1.3988437945
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
u^2 X 1
1 1.3 2.3 1.3
1 1.186 0.943 2.3
1 0.974 1.159
1 0.836 1.412
1 0.88 1.799
1 1.038 2.545
1 1.101 2.926
1 1.18 2.993
1 1.208 3.231
1 1.412 2.896
1 1.948 3.808
1 2.262 4.341
1 2.944 5.043
1 3.792 7.08
1 5.572 10.635
1 7.035 13.428
1 9.684 18.099
1 13.803 27.022
1 17.765 30.329
1 17.461 18.477
1 20.89 21.937
1 25.889 26.554
1 23.397 23.782
1 27.692 25.973
1 29.561 27.706
0.438772
 de aici am calculat
(y-ymed) la patrat x ytestimat ut upatrat DW
0.0029 1 0.5 4.1 0.2020808939 0.0979191061 0.009588
0.1991 1 1 4.2 0.6493336313 0.1506663687 0.022700 0.002782
0.0029 1 1.2 4 0.5208974302 -0.2208974302 0.048796 0.138060
0.7291 1 -0.3 4.1 -0.3086319553 -0.1913680447 0.036622 0.000872
0.1991 1 2.1 3.8 0.8393349721 -0.0393349721 0.001547 0.023114
1.0944 1 2.3 4.2 1.4792420112 -0.0792420112 0.006279 0.001593
0.0237 1 1.2 3.8 0.2647830168 -0.0647830168 0.004197 0.000209
0.1198 1 1 4 0.3932192179 0.3067807821 0.094114 0.138060
0.1252 1 0.8 3.9 0.1374837989 -0.1374837989 0.018902 0.197371
1.1106 1 0 3.8 -0.501286257 -0.198713743 0.039487 0.003749
1.8329 1 -0.6 3.6 -1.1404353073 0.1404353073 0.019722 0.115022
0.8952 1 2.2 4.2 1.415402905 -0.115402905 0.013318 0.065453
0.4175 1 1.4 4 0.6485756425 0.3514243575 0.123499 0.217928
6.752308 0.000000 0.438772 0.904212

formula care calculeaza A estimat DW= 2.060781

1.280572 0.638391 -5.3674601117

a1 a0
0.6383910615 -5.36746

a0
0.3724743579
1.9668049182
#N/A
 x transpus
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
-0.3 2.1 2.3 1.2 1 0.8 0 -0.6 2.2 1.4
4.1 3.8 4.2 3.8 4 3.9 3.8 3.6 4.2 4

13 12.8 51.7
12.8 22.72 51.82
51.7 51.82 206.03

- am adaugat transpus in formula

(xtr*x)la-1 (xtr*x)la-1 xtran*y

0.936536 -11.4263 44.59641 0.936536 -11.4263 4.6
0.122905 -0.26592 0.936536 0.122905 -0.26592 12.16
-0.26592 2.938994 -11.4263 -0.26592 2.938994 19.42

 std t-stat prob

a0 -5.36746 1.398844 -3.83707 0.16%
a1 0.638391 0.073435 8.69326 0.00% daca creste cu un punct procentual atunci creste cu 0,63
a2 1.280572 0.359103 3.566033 0.26% daca creste cu un punct procentual atunci creste cu 1,28

y estimat
 X TRANSPUS
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1.186 0.974 0.836 0.88 1.038 1.101 1.18 1.208 1.412 1.948
0.943 1.159 1.412 1.799 2.545 2.926 2.993 3.231 2.896 3.808
i creste cu 0,63
i creste cu 1,28
 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2.262 2.944 3.792 5.572 7.035 9.684 13.803 17.765 17.461 20.89
4.341 5.043 7.08 10.635 13.428 18.099 27.022 30.329 18.477 21.937
 1 1 1 1
25.889 23.397 27.692 29.561
26.554 23.782 25.973 27.706