Available online at www.sciencedirect.

com

ScienceDirect
Energy Procedia 95 (2016) 491 – 498

,QWHUQDWLRQDO6FLHQWLILF&RQIHUHQFH³(QYLURQPHQWDODQG&OLPDWH7HFKQRORJLHV´&21(&7
2FWREHU5LJD/DWYLD

$GDSWLQJDQGUHDFWLQJWRPHDVXUHDQH[WUHPHHYHQWDPHWKRGRORJ\
WRPHDVXUHGLVDVWHUFRPPXQLW\UHVLOLHQFH
)XOYLR7RVHURQLD )UDQFHVFR5RPDJQROLE)DXVWR0DULQFLRQLD
a
Università Politecnica delle Marche, via Brecce Bianche, Ancona, 60131, Italy
b
Institute of Energy Systems and Environment, Riga Technical University, Azenes iela 12/1, Riga, LV–1048, Latvia

$EVWUDFW

7KH  81 +\RJR 'HFODUDWLRQ LQWURGXFHG WKH FRQFHSW RI UHVLOLHQFH LQ WKH ILHOG RI GLVDVWHU ULVN UHGXFWLRQ '55 XQLI\LQJ
HQYLURQPHQWDOVXVWDLQDELOLW\DQGFLYLOSURWHFWLRQFRQFHSWV&UXFLDOLQWKLVQHZDSSURDFKLVWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIDQHZTXDQWLWDWLYH
DGDSWLYHVWUDWHJ\ZKLFKVWDUWLQJIURPWKHULVNDQDO\VLVRIDWHUULWRU\DLPVDWVWUHQJWKHQLQJDV\PELRWLFDQGDGDSWLYHUHODWLRQVKLS
EHWZHHQKXPDQFRPPXQLWLHVDQGWKHLUVXUURXQGV7KLVSDUDGLJPDWLFVKLIWQHHGVQHZDQDO\WLFDODQGPHDVXULQJWRROVLQRUGHUWR
GHVFULEHHYDOXDWHDQGGHYHORSVXVWDLQDEOH'55VWUDWHJLHV7UDGLWLRQDOFDUWRJUDSKLFWRROVVXFKDVKD]DUGYXOQHUDELOLW\RUULVN
PDSVFDQQRWDSSURSULDWHO\UHSUHVHQWWKHRYHUDOOUHVLOLHQFHRIDWHUULWRU\LQFOXVLYHRILWVVRFLDODQGHQYLURQPHQWDOGLPHQVLRQV
7KLV DUWLFOH SURSRVHV D PHWKRGRORJLFDO DSSURDFK WR PDS VXFK FRPPXQLW\ UHVLOLHQFH E\ DVVHVVLQJ HQHUJ\ DQG UHVRXUFH
FRQVXPSWLRQ WRPDLQWDLQWKH VWDELOLW\RI WKH VRFLDOHFRORJLFDOV\VWHP 6WDUWLQJ IURP WKH LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI WKH FRPSOH[ UHODWLRQV
EHWZHHQ VRFLRHFRQRPLF SURFHVVHV DQG GLVDVWHUV WKLV PHWKRG FRPSXWHV D UHVLOLHQFH VFRUH RU LQGH[ LQWHJUDWLQJ KD]DUG DQG
YXOQHUDELOLW\ IDFWRUV ZLWK HPHUJHQF\ PDQDJHPHQW DFWLRQV HJ FRPPXQLW\ SODQQLQJ PLWLJDWLRQ DQG GLVDVWHU UHVSRQVH
FDSDELOLWLHV 6XFK LQGH[ ZLOO HQDEOH LQWHUDOLD WKH GUDZLQJRIPDSV RI UHVLOLHQFH QHFHVVDU\ WR SODQQHUV DQG SROLF\ PDNHUV WR
DVVHVVWKHHIIHFWVDQGVXVWDLQDELOLW\RIGLIIHUHQW'55VWUDWHJLHVDQGSROLFLHV
©‹7KH$XWKRUV3XEOLVKHGE\(OVHYLHU/WG
2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
3HHUUHYLHZXQGHUUHVSRQVLELOLW\RI5LJD7HFKQLFDO8QLYHUVLW\,QVWLWXWHRI(QHUJ\6\VWHPVDQG(QYLURQPHQW
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Peer-review under responsibility of Riga Technical University, Institute of Energy Systems and Environment.
Keywords:UHVLOLHQFHLQGH[YXOQHUDELOLW\DGDSWLYHFDSDFLW\FRPPXQLW\GLVDVWHUUHVLOLHQFHPDSRIUHVLOLHQFH

 


&RUUHVSRQGLQJDXWKRU
E-mail address:IXOYLRWRVHURQL#KRWPDLOLW

1876-6102 © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Peer-review under responsibility of Riga Technical University, Institute of Energy Systems and Environment.
doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2016.09.074
492 Fulvio Toseroni et al. / Energy Procedia 95 (2016) 491 – 498

,QWURGXFWLRQ

6LQFHWKHHDUO\VH[WUHPHHYHQWVKDYHEHHQJURZLQJERWKLQIUHTXHQF\DQGLQWHQVLW\>@7KHLQFUHDVHRI
GHVWUXFWLYH DQG GLVUXSWLYH H[WUHPH HYHQWV KDV WKXV GULYHQ WKH DWWHQWLRQ RI WKH LQWHUQDWLRQDO VFLHQWLILF FRPPXQLW\
WRZDUGDPRUHKROLVWLFXQGHUVWDQGLQJDQGVWXG\RIGLVDVWHUV>@7KHOLQNVEHWZHHQWUDGLWLRQDOO\GLVWLQFWGLVFLSOLQHV
VXFK DV JHRORJ\ HFRORJ\ HFRQRP\ DQG VRFLRORJ\ DQG WKH ILHOG GLVDVWHU PDQDJHPHQW KDYH EHHQ LQFUHDVLQJO\
LQYHVWLJDWHG >@ DQG DQ LPSRUWDQW OLWHUDWXUH DQG YDULRXV VFKRROV RI WKRXJKWV RQ GLVDVWHUV DQG HPHUJHQF\
PDQDJHPHQW ZDV GHYHORSHG >±@ ,Q VSLWH RI WKH GLIIHUHQW YLVLRQV DQG DSSURDFKHV VFLHQWLVWV VHHP WR DJUHH WKDW
GLVDVWHUVDUHWKHGLUHFWFRQVHTXHQFHRIWHFKQLFDOIDLOXUHVGHSHQGLQJRQVRFLDORUJDQL]DWLRQDODQGLQVWLWXWLRQDOIDFWRUV

1.1. UN International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR)

,Q  WKH 81 5HVROXWLRQ  VWDUWHG D JOREDO SURJUDP DLPHG DW VDYLQJ KXPDQ OLIH DQG UHGXFLQJ WKH
LPSDFWRIGLVDVWHUV>@6XFKUHVROXWLRQGHILQHGWKH,QWHUQDWLRQDO'HFDGHIRU1DWXUDO'LVDVWHU5HGXFWLRQ,'1'5
SURJUDPZLWKWKHDLPRIUHGXFLQJWKHORVVRIOLYHVSURSHUW\GDPDJHVRFLDODQGHFRQRPLFGLVUXSWLRQFDXVHGE\
QDWXUDOGLVDVWHUVDQGRWKHUFDODPLWLHVRIQDWXUDORULJLQ81WKDQNVWRDFRRUGLQDWHGLQWHUQDWLRQDODFWLRQ,Q
 WKH 81 'HSDUWPHQW RI +XPDQLWDULDQ $IIDLUV ZDV HVWDEOLVKHG DQG LQFOXGHG LQ WKH *HQHUDO $VVHPEO\
UHVROXWLRQ  >@ :LWKLQ WKLV QHZ 81 ERG\ D QRYHO LQWHJUDWHG DSSURDFK IRU WKH PDQDJHPHQW RI DOO WKH
DVSHFWV UHODWHG WR GLVDVWHUV ZDV DGRSWHG HPSKDVL]LQJ WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI SUHYHQWLRQ DQG SUHSDUHGQHVV DQG WKXV
VWDUWLQJ DQ LPSRUWDQW SURFHVV RI GHYHORSPHQW RI D JOREDO FXOWXUH RI SUHYHQWLRQ PRVWO\ IRFXVHG RQ YXOQHUDEOH
FRXQWULHV >@ 7KH ILUVW :RUOG &RQIHUHQFH RQ 1DWXUDO 'LVDVWHU 5HGXFWLRQ KHOG LQ <RNRKDPD -DSDQ LQ 
SURGXFHG WKH GRFXPHQW <RNRKDPD 6WUDWHJ\ DQG 3ODQ RI $FWLRQ IRU D 6DIHU :RUOG  *XLGHOLQHV IRU 1DWXUDO
'LVDVWHU 3UHYHQWLRQ 3UHSDUHGQHVV DQG 0LWLJDWLRQ >@ 7KH GRFXPHQW KLJKOLJKWV WKDW HQYLURQPHQWDO SURWHFWLRQ
DQG SRYHUW\ UHGXFWLRQ EHFDPH NH\ IRU WKH SUHYHQWLRQ DQG PLWLJDWLRQ RI QDWXUDO GLVDVWHUV 0RUHRYHU WKH
LQWURGXFWLRQRISUHYHQWLRQPLWLJDWLRQSUHSDUHGQHVVDQGUHFRYHU\DFWLRQVUHSODFHGWKHSUHYLRXVDSSURDFKPDLQO\
EDVHGRQO\RQGLVDVWHUUHVSRQVH7KH:RUOG&RQIHUHQFHLQWURGXFHGVHYHUDOLQQRYDWLRQVVXFKDVORRNLQJWRZDUG
WKH ILHOG RI DQWKURSLF GLVDVWHUV DQG WKH LQWURGXFWLRQ RI WKH FRQFHSW RI WHFKQLFDO 5HVLOLHQFH LQ WKH ILHOG RI '55
(YHQWXDOO\ WKH <RNRKDPD GHFODUDWLRQ EHFDPH WKH EDFNJURXQG IRU WKH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 6WUDWHJ\ IRU 'LVDVWHU
5HGXFWLRQ,6'5HVWDEOLVKHGLQWKURXJKGRFXPHQWDVDSHUPDQHQWSURJUDPWRFRQWLQXHWKHZRUN
LQLWLDWHGZLWKWKH,'1'5>@

1.2. UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) and the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA)

7KH 81 0LOOHQQLXP 'HFODUDWLRQ LQ WKH \HDU  >@ FODULILHG WKDW WKH VWDUWLQJ SRLQW RI HYHU\ '55 DFWLRQ
PXVWEHDVXVWDLQDEOHSURFHVVWKDWWULHVWRPLQLPL]HWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWDQGUHYHUWWKHFXUUHQWXQVXVWDLQDEOH
PRGHOV RI SURGXFWLRQ DQG FRQVXPSWLRQ 7KH REMHFWLYH LV WR SURWHFW QDWXUH IRU IXWXUH JHQHUDWLRQV 7KH 81
UHDIILUPHG LWV FRPPLWPHQW WR LQWHQVLI\ FRRSHUDWLRQ DQG V\QHUJLHV DPRQJ FRXQWULHV LQ RUGHU WR UHGXFH QXPEHUV
DQGFRQVHTXHQFHVRIQDWXUDODQGPDQPDGHGLVDVWHUV>@7KHNH\FRQFHSWVRIWKH0LOOHQQLXPGRFXPHQWEHFDPH
WKH EDVLV IRU WKH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 6WUDWHJ\ IRU 'LVDVWHU 5HGXFWLRQ ,6'5 ,Q  GXULQJ WKH QG :RUOG GLVDVWHU
FRQIHUHQFHKHOGLQ+\RJR-DSDQWKH+\RJR)UDPHZRUNIRU$FWLRQ+)$±>@ZDVSUHVHQWHGWKH
PDLQ JRDO RI ZKLFK ZDV WR VKLIW IURP KD]DUG SODQQLQJ DQG ULVN UHGXFWLRQ WR EXLOGLQJ GLVDVWHU UHVLOLHQW
FRPPXQLWLHV 6LQFH WKHQ WKH FRQFHSW RI GLVDVWHU UHVLOLHQFH KDV JDLQHG PRPHQWXP SDUWLFXODUO\ LQ WKH ILHOG RI
HPHUJHQF\PDQDJHPHQWDQGFLYLOSURWHFWLRQ1HYHUWKHOHVVLQWKH+)$GRFXPHQWLWZDVQRWFOHDUO\GHILQHGKRZ
UHVLOLHQFHVKRXOGEHDVVHVVHGPHDVXUHGRUPDSSHG>@7KLVLQGHWHUPLQDWLRQZDVFDUULHGRYHUWRWKHWKLUG81
:RUOG&RQIHUHQFHRQ'LVDVWHU5LVN5HGXFWLRQ'55KHOGLQ-DSDQLQ0DUFKZKLFKGHILQHGDQHZVHWRI
DFWLRQ IRU WKH SHULRG ± 1HYHUWKHOHVV WKH FORVH OLQN EHWZHHQ H[WUHPH HYHQWV FOLPDWH FKDQJH
FRQVXPSWLRQRIHQYLURQPHQWFRPPXQLW\YXOQHUDELOLW\DQGUHVLOLHQFHUHPDLQVSLYRWDOIRUWKHLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRI
HIIHFWLYHQDWLRQDO'55SURJUDPV
 Fulvio Toseroni et al. / Energy Procedia 95 (2016) 491 – 498 493

5HVLOLHQFHLQGLVDVWHUULVNUHGXFWLRQ

7KH ILUVW GRFXPHQWHG XVH RI WKH ZRUG UHVLOLHQFH LQ WKH ILHOG RI GLVDVWHU VWXGLHV GDWHV EDFN WR  DIWHU WKH
6KLPRGDHDUWKTXDNHLQ-DSDQGHVFULELQJWKHUHFRYHU\DFWLRQVRI6KLPRGD¶VFLWL]HQVDVUHVLOLHQW+RZHYHURQO\DW
WKH EHJLQQLQJ RI \HDU  WKH FRQFHSW RI UHVLOLHQFH EHFRPHV V\VWHPDWLFDOO\ DGRSWHG LQ WKH ILHOG RI '55 DOVR
WKDQNVWRWKHDERYHGLVFXVVHG81,6'5DQG+)$SURJUDPV'DYLG$OH[DQGHULQKLVHW\PRORJLFDODQDO\VLVRIWKH
ZRUG UHVLOLHQFH >@ KLJKOLJKWV WKUHH PDLQ VHPDQWLF FRQFHSWV DVVRFLDWHG WR ZRUG UHVLOLHQFH DQ LQWULQVLF
FKDUDFWHULVWLFRIPDWHULDOVWRVXUYLYHWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIDIRUFHE\UHVLVWLQJLWZLWKVWUHQJWKULJLGLW\DQGDEVRUELQJLW
ZLWK GHIRUPDWLRQ GXFWLOLW\ IURP PHFKDQLFV WKH FDSDFLW\ RI D VRFLDOHFRORJLFDO V\VWHP WR VXUYLYH GLVWXUEDQFH
SUHVHUYLQJ LWV LQWHJULW\ DQG IXQFWLRQV IURP HFRORJLFDO SHUVSHFWLYH SURSRVHG E\ +ROOLQJ >@ WKH DELOLW\ RI DQ
LQGLYLGXDOWRDGDSWDQGUHDFWWRDEUXSWVKRFNVIURPSV\FKRORJ\>±@

Đ͘ϯϱ >t >/dZdhZ

ϭϱϮϵ
^dd^DE^,/W
ϭϲϮϱ ^/Ed/&/
Dd,K
ϭϴϱϵ
D,E/^
,/>
W^z,K>K'z
ϭϵϯϬ
DEh&dhZ/E' Ed,ZKWK>K'z
ϭϵϱϬ
^K/>
ϭϵϳϯ Z^Z,
K>K'z

ϮϬϬϬ DE'DEd /^^dZZ/^<

;Wd/sͿ Zhd/KE

^h^d/E/>/dz
ϮϬϭϬϭ ^/E >/Dd,E'
Wd/KE 
)LJ0HDQLQJRIUHVLOLHQFHLQ'55>@

$FFRUGLQJWR$OH[DQGHUWKHFRQFHSWRIUHVLOLHQFHLQWKHILHOGRI'55OLQNVEDFNWRWKHGHILQLWLRQVGHYHORSHGRQ
WKHILHOGRIHFRORJ\DQGSV\FKRORJ\VHH)LJ+ROOLQJSURYLGHGDQLPSRUWDQWFRQQHFWLRQEHWZHHQUHVLOLHQFHDQG
'55ZKHQLQUHILQHGKLVGHILQLWLRQRIHFRORJLFDOUHVLOLHQFH³$EXIIHUFDSDFLW\RUWKHDELOLW\RIDV\VWHPWR
DEVRUESHUWXUEDWLRQRUWKHPDJQLWXGHRIWKHGLVWXUEDQFHWKDWFDQEHDEVRUEHGEHIRUHDV\VWHPFKDQJHVLWVVWUXFWXUH
E\ FKDQJLQJ WKH YDULDEOHV´ >@ 7KH LQWURGXFWLRQ RI PDJQLWXGH QDPHO\ WKH HQHUJ\ UHOHDVHG E\ D GLVWXUEDQFH RU
H[WUHPHHYHQWSURYLGHGDGLUHFWOLQNRIWKHFRQFHSWRIHFRORJLFDOUHVLOLHQFHWRWKHILHOGRI'550HDQZKLOHLQWKH
ILHOGRIVRFLDOVFLHQFHKXPDQJHRJUDSKHU$GJHU>@ILUVWXVHGWKHWHUP³UHVLOLHQWFRPPXQLWLHV´WRGHVFULEHVRFLDO
V\VWHPVFDSDEOHWRDEVRUEDQGUHFRYHUIURPH[WUHPHHYHQWV6LQFHWKHQYDULRXVFKDUDFWHUL]DWLRQVRIUHVLOLHQFHKDG
EHHQGHYHORSHGIRU'55DFFRUGLQJWRWKHVSHFLILFFRQWLQJHQFLHVDQDO\]HG5HSRUWHGH[DPSOHVLQFOXGHWKHDELOLW\RI
DQDWLRQDJURXSRISHRSOHDFRPPXQLW\RUDVRFLHW\WRIDFHGLVDVWHUVDQGTXLFNO\UHFRYHUDQHTXLOLEULXPDIWHUWKH
LPSDFW7KLVDELOLW\RIDFWLRQUHDFWLRQLVFDOOHG&RPPXQLW\'LVDVWHU5HVLOLHQFHWKHDELOLW\RIDV\VWHPWRGHYHORSD
VHOIUHJXODWRU\ DQG UHRUJDQL]DWLRQ SURFHVV LQ FDVH RI GLVWXUEDQFH 5HVLOLHQFH IDFLOLWDWHV DQG FRQWULEXWHV WR WKH
FRPPXQLW\¶VUHFRYHU\SURFHVV>@WKHDELOLW\RIDV\VWHPWRTXLFNO\UHDFWWRDQH[WHUQDOVWUHVVDQGWKHORQJWHUP
FDSDFLW\ WR EXLOG D QHZ HTXLOLEULXP ,Q WKLV FDVH UHVLOLHQFH LV OLQNHG ERWK WR WKH WLPLQJ DQG WR WKH FDSDFLW\ WR
UHLQIRUFHDFRPPXQLW\DIWHUDQHYHQWWKHDELOLW\RIDV\VWHPWRDGDSWWRFKDQJLQJFRQGLWLRQVZKLOHSUHVHUYLQJLWV
EDVLFVWUXFWXUH)URPWKLVSRLQWRIYLHZWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQGLVDVWHUVUHVLOLHQFHDQGVXVWDLQDEOHXVHRIQDWXUDO
UHVRXUFHVSOD\DPDMRUUROH>@
,QGHHG WKH PXOWLWXGH RI LQWHUSUHWDWLRQV DQG XVDJHV WR ZKLFK WKH WHUP UHVLOLHQFH KDV EHHQ VXEMHFWHG KDV OHG WR
FRQIXVLRQ +HOS FDPH RQFH DJDLQ IURP WKH 81,6'5 ZKLFK LQ  SURYLGHG D GHILQLWLRQ RI UHVLOLHQFH WKDW KDV
EHFRPHZLGHO\DFFHSWHGLQWKHILHOGRI'556XFKGHILQLWLRQUHDGVDVIROORZ7KHDELOLW\RIDV\VWHPFRPPXQLW\
RUVRFLHW\H[SRVHGWRKD]DUGVWRUHVLVWDEVRUEDFFRPPRGDWHWRDQGUHFRYHUIURPWKHHIIHFWVRIDKD]DUGLQDWLPHO\
494 Fulvio Toseroni et al. / Energy Procedia 95 (2016) 491 – 498

DQG HIILFLHQW PDQQHU LQFOXGLQJ WKURXJK WKH SUHVHUYDWLRQ DQG UHVWRUDWLRQ RI LWV HVVHQWLDO EDVLF VWUXFWXUHV DQG
IXQFWLRQV>@

1HHGIRUUHVLOLHQFHPHWULFV

5HVHDUFKHUVDQGSUDFWLWLRQHUVJRYHUQPHQWVDQG1*2VDVZHOODV81RUJDQL]DWLRQVKDYHXQGHUWDNHQWKHTXHVW
IRUDVKDUHGPHWKRGWRPHDVXUHUHVLOLHQFHDQGYDULRXVPHWULFVIRFXVLQJRQGLIIHUHQWDVSHFWVRIUHVLOLHQFHKDYHEHHQ
GHYHORSHG+RZHYHUUHVLOLHQFHDQDO\VLVLVVWLOOLQLWVLQIDQF\DQGQRVLQJOHPHWKRGKDV\HWUHFHLYHGWKHDXWKRULW\RI
FRQVHQVXV DSSURYDO 2QH RUJDQL]DWLRQ WKH 5HVLOLHQFH $OOLDQFH KDV GHYHORSHG JXLGHOLQHV IRU DSSO\LQJ UHVLOLHQFH
DQDO\VLV WR VRFLRHFRORJLFDO V\VWHPV >5HVLOLHQFH $OOLDQFH $VVHVVLQJ UHVLOLHQFH LQ VRFLDOHFRORJLFDO V\VWHPV
:RUNERRN IRU SUDFWLWLRQHUV 9HUVLRQ   5HVLOLHQFH $OOLDQFH@ EXW WKH VRFLRHFRORJLFDO V\VWHPV IUDPHZRUN
FDQQRWEHDSSOLHGWRHYHU\FRQWH[W)URPDTXDOLWDWLYHSRLQWRIYLHZWKHNH\LQGLFDWRUVRIV\VWHPUHVLOLHQFHFDQEH
GHILQHG XVLQJ V\VWHP G\QDPLFV PRGHOOLQJ WKH WKUHVKROGV RI FHUWDLQ FKDUDFWHULVWLFVYDULDEOHV EHIRUH D V\VWHP
VWDELOLW\LVGLVUXSWHGGHILQHWKHV\VWHPV¶UHVLOLHQFH([DPSOHVRIVXFKLQGLFDWRUVDUHOLVWHGLQ7DEOH

7DEOH&KDUDFWHULVWLFVRIV\VWHPUHVLOLHQFH

&KDUDFWHULVWLF 'HVFULSWLRQ

'LYHUVLW\ ([LVWHQFHRIPXOWLSOHUHVRXUFHVDQGEHKDYLRUVZLWKLQWKHV\VWHP

$GDSWDELOLW\ &DSDFLW\RIDV\VWHPWRFKDQJHLQUHVSRQVHWRQHZSUHVVXUHV

&RKHVLRQ 6WUHQJWKRIXQLI\LQJIRUFHVOLQNDJHVRUIHHGEDFNORRSV

/DWLWXGH 0D[LPXPDPRXQWRIFKDQJHDV\VWHPFDQDEVRUEZKLOHVWLOOIXQFWLRQLQJ

5HVLVWDQFH &DSDFLW\RIDV\VWHPWRPDLQWDLQLWVVWDWHLQWKHIDFHRIGLVUXSWLRQV

&HUWDLQO\RQFHZHILQGWKHULJKWLQGLFDWRUVDQGWKHULJKWFDOFXODWLRQVZHZLOOKDYHPDMRUSURJUHVVLQHQKDQFLQJ
DQGTXDQWLI\LQJUHVLOLHQFH7KHSXUSRVHRIWKLVDUWLFOHLVWRIRVWHUGLVFXVVLRQRQWKHIROORZLQJDVSHFWVRIUHVLOLHQFH
+RZ IDU DUH ZH LQ WKH SURFHVV RI PDNLQJ UHVLOLHQFH SULQFLSOHV OHVV WKHRUHWLFDO DQG PRUH FRQWH[WXDO" +RZ WR
RYHUFRPHLQIRUPDWLRQVKDULQJEDUULHUVWRFLUFXODWHDQGWHVWJRRGSUDFWLFHVRIUHVLOLHQFHPHWULFV":KDWLVWKHVWDWXVRI
PHDVXULQJUHVLOLHQFHLQWKHVSHFLILFILHOGRIHPHUJHQF\SODQQLQJ"+RZWRFUHDWHPDSVRIUHVLOLHQFHDQGKRZFDQWKH\
EHOLQNHGWRPDSVRIULVN"&DQPDSVRIWHUULWRULDOUHVLOLHQFHHQFRXUDJHWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIDGDSWLYHKXPDQV\VWHPV
DQGLQFUHDVHSUHSDUHGQHVVIRUXQNQRZQIXWXUHH[WUHPHHYHQWV"$QGILQDOO\ZKLFKW\SHRIKROLVWLFPHWKRGRORJ\FDQ
EHDSSOLHG

3.1. Classifying adverse events

,QWKLVSDSHUWKHZRUG³HYHQW´PHDQVHYHU\SKHQRPHQDWKDWDIIHFWWKHG\QDPLFHTXLOLEULXPRIDV\VWHPFDXVLQJ
ORVVRIOLIHLQMXULHVKHDOWKHFRQRP\DQGHQYLURQPHQWDOGDPDJHV$QHYHQWFDQEHFODVVLILHGDFFRUGLQJWR6RXUFH
RIGLVWXUEDQFHKD]DUG(QHUJ\UHOHDVHGPDJQLWXGHW\SHRILPSDFWVORZRUIDVWRQVHWORFDOL]HGRUGLIIXVHHWF
W\SHRIFRQVHTXHQFHGDPDJH0HWKRGRORJ\WRFRSHZLWKUHVSRQGDQGUHFRYHUIURPDQHYHQW
7KH 81 LGHQWLILHV WKUHH PDLQ FDWHJRULHV RI SULPDU\ KD]DUGV >@ QDWXUDO KD]DUGV RULJLQDWLQJ IURP QDWXUDO
SKHQRPHQDLHHDUWKTXDNHVODQGVOLGHVYROFDQRHVHWFWHFKQRORJLFDOKD]DUGVRULJLQDWLQJIURPWHFKQRORJLFDORU
LQGXVWULDO SURFHVVHV ± LH DFFLGHQWV GDQJHURXV SURFHGXUHV LQIUDVWUXFWXUH IDLOXUHV RU VSHFLILF KXPDQ DFWLYLWLHV
VRFLRQDWXUDOKD]DUGVRULJLQDWLQJIURPWKHLQWHUDFWLRQRIQDWXUDOKD]DUGVZLWKRYHUH[SORLWHGRUGHJUDGHGODQGDQG
HQYLURQPHQWDO UHVRXUFHV 7KH WHUP KLJKOLJKWV FLUFXPVWDQFHVZKHUH KXPDQDFWLYLW\ LV LQFUHDVLQJ WKHRFFXUUHQFHRI
FHUWDLQKD]DUGVEH\RQGWKHLUQDWXUDOSUREDELOLWLHV
4XDUDQWHOOLFODVVLILHGIRXUGLIIHUHQWOHYHOVRIHYHQWVDFFLGHQWVPDMRULQFLGHQWGLVDVWHUFDWDVWURSKH>@,IZH
DGRSW WKLV FODVVLILFDWLRQ ZH FDQ GHVFULEH HYHU\ HYHQW LQ WHUPV RI GLVUXSWLYH HQHUJ\ UHOHDVH XQPDQDJHDEOH DQG
XQFRQWUROODEOH IURP WKH VRFLHWDO V\VWHPV 7KH GLVUXSWLYH HYHQW LQ WHUPV RI HQHUJ\ UHOHDVHG GHSHQGV IURP WKH
PDJQLWXGHLQWHQVLW\WKHSHULRGDQGWKHYHORFLW\RISURSDJDWLRQRIWKHDIIHFWHGDUHD>@
 Fulvio Toseroni et al. / Energy Procedia 95 (2016) 491 – 498 495

3.2 Methodologies for assessing and measuring community resilience

7KHUH LV D FRPPRQ XQGHUVWDQGLQJ WKDW UHVLOLHQW V\VWHPV DUH OHVV YXOQHUDEOH WR KD]DUGV DQG WKUHDWV WKDQ SODFHV
ZLWK ORZHU OHYHO RI UHVLOLHQFH 1HYHUWKHOHVV WKH ZD\ KRZ UHVLOLHQFH LV TXDQWLILHG FRYHULQJ DVVHVVPHQWV
GHWHUPLQDWLRQVPHDVXUHPHQWVHQKDQFHPHQWVLVVWLOODPDWWHURITXHVWLRQ6SHFLILFDOO\LWLVQRWREYLRXVZKDWGULYHV
WRDKLJKHUOHYHORIUHVLOLHQFHZLWKLQLQWHUFRQQHFWHGV\VWHPVHJKXPDQHQYLURQPHQWDQGWHFKQRORJLFDODQGWKXV
ZKDWDUHPRVWFRQVLVWHQWDQGUREXVWYDULDEOHVRULQGLFDWRUVWKDWVKRXOGEHXVHGZLWKLQWKHPHDVXUHPHQWSURFHVV
$OUHDG\DODUJHQXPEHURIVWXGLHVKDYHWULHGWRGHVFULEHGWKHRYHUDOODVSHFWVRIUHVLOLHQFHOLNH%HUNHVHWDO>@
DQG3OXPPHUDQG$UPLWDJH>@EXWGXHWRLWVPXOWLGLVFLSOLQDU\QDWXUHDKROLVWLFPRGHORIUHVLOLHQFHKDVQRW\HW
EHHQ WHVWHG DQG DSSURYHG 7KH VWXG\ RI 'XLMQKRYHQ DQG 1HHI >@ KLJKOLJKWV KRZ WKHUH LV QRW D ODUJH QXPEHU RI
IUDPHZRUNV DQG VWXGLHV DLPLQJ WR EXLOG FRQFHSWXDO DQG WKHRUHWLFDO PRGHOV RI FRPPXQLW\ DQG VRFLHWDO UHVLOLHQFH
EDVHG RQ WKH WKHRU\ RI DGDSWLYH DQG WKXV FRPSOH[ V\VWHPV 7KH VDPH FRQFHSW LV DOVR KLJKOLJKWHG LQ WKH ZRUN RI
&XWWHU>@DQG-RUGDQ-DYHUQLFN:LOO>@
:LWKLQWKHVWXG\RI6FKQHLGHUEDXHUDQG(KUOLFK>@LVGHVFULEHGWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIDVVHVVLQJUHVLOLHQFHLQWHUPV
RILQGLFDWRUVLQVWHDGRIDEVROXWHUHVLOLHQFHTXDQWLILFDWLRQ7KHSURSHUDQGFRQVLVWHQWVHOHFWLRQRIDVHWRILQGLFDWRUV
ZRXOG RIIHU WKH SRVVLELOLW\ RI TXDQWLILFDWLRQ DPRQJ GLIIHUHQW SODFHV DQG RYHU WLPH >@ HYHQ LI LQ WKLV DVSHFW WKH
G\QDPLFDQGQRQOLQHDUSHUVSHFWLYHLVVWLOOPLVVLQJ
7KH VWXG\ SURSRVHG E\ &66 >@ LGHQWLILHV WKH UHVLOLHQFH HYDOXDWLRQ PHWKRGV WKURXJK TXDQWLWDWLYH DSSURDFKHV
PRVWO\ DVVRFLDWHG WR DQ LQGH[ EDVHG HYDOXDWLRQ TXDOLWDWLYH DSSURDFKHV EDVHG RQ D GHVFULSWLYH HYDOXDWLRQ DQG
PL[HGPHWKRGV7KHPL[HGPHWKRGRORJ\LVVXLWDEOHDQGUHODWHGWRFRPPXQLW\UHVLOLHQFHVSHFLILFDOO\IRFXVHGRQWKH
HYDOXDWLRQRIVRFLDOOLQNVDPRQJFRPPXQLWLHVWKHLUHQYLURQPHQWDQGWKHVWUXFWXUDODVSHFWVRQZKLFKWKH\DUHEDVHG
DQGUHO\RQ
,QWKHVWXG\SURSRVHGE\&XWWHUHWDO>@LVVWUHVVHGWKHOLQNRIUHVLOLHQFHZLWKWKHFRQFHSWRIDGDSWLYHFDSDFLW\
DV ZHOO DV WKH LQWHUFRQQHFWLRQV DPRQJ UHVLOLHQFH DGDSWLYH FDSDFLW\ DQG WKH FRQFHSW RI YXOQHUDELOLW\ 7KH DXWKRU
GHILQHVUHVLOLHQFHDVDV\VWHP¶VFDSDFLW\WRDEVRUEGLVWXUEDQFHDQGUHRUJDQL]HLQWRDIXOO\IXQFWLRQLQJV\VWHP$V
PHQWLRQHG LQ WKH VWXG\ RI .OHLQ HW DO >@ WKH IUDPHZRUN RQ KRZ GHWHUPLQH PHDVXUH HQKDQFHG DQG PDLQWDLQ D
UHVLOLHQWFRPPXQLW\LVHVVHQWLDOLQRUGHUWRGHFUHDVHLWVYXOQHUDELOLW\WRKD]DUGVDQGGLVDVWHUV
%DVHGRQWKLVDVVXPSWLRQDQGKRZSUHYLRXVO\GHVFULEHGJHQHUDOIUDPHZRUNVKDYHEHHQSURSRVHGGXULQJWKHODVW
GHFDGHORRNLQJWRZDUGGLIIHUHQWNH\DVSHFWVHJ3(23/(6&'5)'523
3(23/(6>@IUDPHZRUNLVEDVHGRQWKHLGHQWLILFDWLRQRIVHYHQGLPHQVLRQVLHSRSXODWLRQHQYLURQPHQWDO
JRYHUQPHQWDO SK\VLFDO LQIUDVWUXFWXUDO FRPPXQLW\ HFRQRPLF VRFLDO 7KH PHWKRG PHUJHV H[SRVXUH WR KD]DUGV
ZLWKWKHVRFLDOGLPHQVLRQVWKDWPDNHWKHFRPPXQLW\YXOQHUDEOHWRDSDUWLFXODUKD]DUG7KHSXUSRVHLVWRGHVFULEH
WKH VRFLRHFRQRPLF VWDWXV RI WKH FRPPXQLW\ 7KH PHWKRG SURYLGHV D IUDPH WR LQFOXGH PHWULFV IRU PHDVXULQJ
HFRQRPLF UHVLOLHQFH LQ WHUP RI ORVV HVWLPDWLRQ PRGHOV LH SURSHUW\ ORVV DQG WKH HIIHFWV RI EXVLQHVV GLVUXSWLRQ
DIWHUGLVDVWHUV3(23/(6IUDPHZRUNLQWHJUDWHVFXUUHQWHFRQRPLFDFWLYLW\DQGG\QDPLFJURZWKRIWKHHFRQRPLF
GHYHORSPHQW
&'5) &RPPXQLW\ 'LVDVWHU 5HVLOLHQFH )UDPHZRUN GHYHORSHG E\ 0D\XQJD >@ LV IRFXVHG WKH PDLQ
PDQDJHPHQWSKDVHVRIDQRFFXUULQJGLVDVWHULHPLWLJDWLRQSUHSDUHGQHVVUHVSRQVHDQGUHFRYHU\RQWKHRQHKDQG
DQG RQ WKH RWKHU LQYROYLQJ FRPPXQLW\ FDSLWDO LQ WHUPV RI VRFLDO HFRQRPLF SK\VLFDO DQG KXPDQ UHVRXUFHV WR EH
LPSOHPHQWHGGXULQJWKHGLVDVWHUPDQDJHPHQWSKDVH&'5)LVDFRQVLVWHQWUREXVWDQGYDOLGDWHGPHWKRGPHUJLQJWKH
FRPPXQLW\FDSLWDOVZLWKWKHGLVDVWHUPDQDJHPHQWSKDVHVEDVHGRQDVWUXFWXUHGSODWIRUPRILQGLFDWRUV7KLVRSHUDWHV
PRUHH[WHQVLYHO\DWWKHQDWLRQDOOHYHOODFNLQJLQFRPPXQLW\UHVLOLHQFHDWVPDOOHUVFDOHV
'523 'LVDVWHU 5HVLOLHQFH RI 3ODFH >@ GHVFULEHV WKH UHODWLRQVKLS DPRQJ YXOQHUDELOLW\ DQG UHVLOLHQFH LQ D
IUDPHZRUN RSHQ WR HPSLULFDO WHVWLQJ :LWKLQ '523 WKH WLPH IUDPH ZLWKLQ WKH HYDOXDWLRQ RI FRPPXQLWLHV¶
UHVLOLHQFHLVIRFXVHGLQWZRPDLQFRPSRQHQWVLDQDQWHFHGHQWFRQGLWLRQWRWKHGLVDVWHULHLQKHUHQWUHVLOLHQFH
GHILQHG DV WKH OLQN VSDFH DQG PXOWLVFDOH GHSHQGDQW DPRQJ QDWXUDO V\VWHPV EXLOW HQYLURQPHQW DQG VRFLDO
V\VWHPVLLDSRVWGLVDVWHUFRQGLWLRQIRFXVHGRQWKHDELOLW\WRFRSHDQGUHVSRQGGXULQJDQGDIWHUWKHGLVDVWHULH
DGDSWLYHUHVLOLHQFH:LWKLQWKLVVWUXFWXUHLVLQWHJUDWHGWKHVRFLDOYXOQHUDELOLW\LQGH[SURSRVHGE\&XWWHU>±@
7KH '523 PRGHO LV IUHTXHQWO\ UHIHUUHG WR DV DQ HYDOXDWLRQ DSSURDFK WKH PDLQ FRQFHUQ LV LWV ODFNLQJ
H[SHULPHQWDO WHVWV LH PRUH WKHRUHWLFDO IUDPH WKH VHYHUDO DVVXPSWLRQV PDGH DQG WKH IRFXV RQ WKH VRFLDO
UHVLOLHQFHRISODFHV
496 Fulvio Toseroni et al. / Energy Procedia 95 (2016) 491 – 498

$FRPPRQDVSHFWIRUDOOWKHSUHYLRXVPHQWLRQHGIUDPHZRUNVLVWKHFRQFHSWWRGHILQHWKHFRPPXQLW\UHVLOLHQFHWR
GLVDVWHUXQGHUWZRPDLQLPSRUWDQWFRPSRQHQWVWKHGLVDVWHUPDQDJHPHQWSKDVHDFWLYLWLHVDQGWKHRYHUDOOFRPPXQLW\
FDSLWDOV 0RUHRYHU WKH TXDQWLWDWLYH HYDOXDWLRQ RI WKH FRPPXQLW\ UHVLOLHQFH WR GLVDVWHU LV UHIHUUHG WR WKH XVH
FRPSRVLWHLQGLFDWRUV>@DVDTXDQWLWDWLYHWRRO7KLVIRUHVHHVWKHIROORZLQJV\VWHPDWLFVWHSVJHQHUDOSODWIRUPIRU
WKH GHILQLWLRQ RI WKH LQGLFDWRUV VHOHFWLRQ RI WKH UHOHYDQW LQGLFDWRUV DQG FRPSDUDELOLW\ RI WKH LQGLFDWRU WKRXJK
VWDQGDUGL]DWLRQ DQG ZHLJKWLQJ ILQDO HYDOXDWLRQ RI WKH FRQVLVWHQF\ DQG UREXVWQHVV RI WKH VHW RI LQGLFDWRUV VHOHFWHG
WKURXJKDQRYHUDOOYDOLGDWLRQDQGWHVWLQJ7KXVRQHRIWKHPDLQUHVHDUFKGLUHFWLRQVLVRULHQWHGWRZDUGWKHQHHGWR
LGHQWLI\ FRQVLVWHQW PHWULFV WR HYDOXDWH DQG VXSSRUW SROLF\ DFWLRQ LQ RUGHU WR GHYHORS D VHW RI KROLVWLF PHWULFV
DSSOLFDEOH WR KD]DUGV LQ GLIIHUHQW LQIUDVWUXFWXUDO HFRQRPLF JHRJUDSKLF VRFLDO DQG FXOWXUDO GLPHQVLRQV 7KH QH[W
VHFWLRQRIWKLVSDSHUZLOOWKXVSURSRVHDFRPPXQLW\UHVLOLHQFHHYDOXDWLRQIUDPHZRUNLQWHJUDWLQJVHYHUDODVSHFWVRI
WKHSUHYLRXVO\PHQWLRQHGDSSURDFKHV

1RYHOUHVLOLHQFHFRPPXQLW\DVVHVVPHQWIUDPHZRUN

7KH IUDPHZRUN IRU WKH DVVHVVPHQW RI WKH FRPPXQLW\ UHVLOLHQFH SURSRVHG LQ WKLV VWXG\ LV EDVHG RQ DQ KROLVWLF
DSSURDFKRIWKHUHVLOLHQFHDEOHWRSURYLGHDFRPSUHKHQVLYHPHDVXUHLQYROYLQJDOOSKDVHVRIGLVDVWHU¶VF\FOHZLWKLQ
WKH GLIIHUHQW RYHUDOO FRPPXQLW\ V\VWHPV LH VRFLDO HFRQRPLF LQIUDVWUXFWXUDOSK\VLFDO HQYLURQPHQWDOHFRORJLFDO
LQVWLWXWLRQDO
7KHPHWKRGLVLPSOHPHQWLQJWKHFODVVLILFDWLRQRI4XDUDQWHOOLWRLGHQWLI\EHQFKPDUNLQJWREHWWHUHYDOXDWHKRZWKH
UHVLOLHQFHLVHVWLPDWHGZLWKUHIHUHQFHWRWKHFRSLQJFDSDFLWLHVWKUHVKROGVRIFRPPXQLW\7KHRYHUDOOIUDPHZRUNKHUH
FDOOHGWKH+ROLVWLF&RPPXQLW\5HVLOLHQFH$VVHVVPHQW0HWKRGLVSURSRVHGLQ)LJ

ŝƐƌƵƉƚŝǀĞǀĞŶƚ

zĞƐ
ŽƉŝŶŐĐĂƉĂĐŝƚLJĞŶŽƵŐŚ͍
;ĨƌŽŵYhZEd>>/Ϳ

EŽ
ĞĨŝŶŝƚŝŽŶŽĨƚŚĞŽŵŵƵŶŝƚLJZĞƐŝůŝĞŶĐĞŝŶĚĞdž
ďĂƐĞĚŽŶĐŽŵƉŽƐŝƚĞŝŶĚŝĐĂƚŽƌƐƚŚĞŽƌLJ
ŝŵĞŶƐŝŽŶƐŽĨ
ŽŵŵƵŶŝƚLJ
ZĞƐŝůŝĞŶĐĞ͗
Ͳ ^ŽĐŝĂů /EWhdd͗
sĂůŝĚĂƚŝŽŶĂŶĚǀĞƌŝĨŝĐĂƚŝŽŶ

Ͳ ĐŽŶŽŵŝĐ ZĞĂů͕^ŝŵƵůĂƚĞĚ
ǀĂůƵĂƚŝŽŶŽĨZĞƐŝůŝĞŶĐĞ
ĐƚŝŽŶƐĂƐĞĚŽŶͨϰZͩ ĞĨŝŶŝƚŝŽŶŽĨƚŚĞ Ͳ /ŶĨƌĂƐƚƌƵĐƚƵƌĂů
ZŽďƵƐƚŶĞƐƐ ƐĞƚŽĨŝŶĚŝĐĂƚŽƌƐ Ͳ ŶǀŝƌŽŶŵĞŶƚĂů
ZĞĚƵŶĚĂŶĐLJ Ͳ /ŶƐƚŝƚƵƚŝŽŶĂů
ZĞƐŽƵƌĐĞĨƵůŶĞƐƐ ŝƐĂƐƚĞƌƉŚĂƐĞ
ZĂƉŝĚŝƚLJ ŵĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚ͗ ^>&&d^
Ͳ DŝƚŝŐĂƚŝŽŶ ^&&d^
Ͳ WƌĞƉĂƌĞĚŶĞƐƐ /EdZKEEd/s/dz
Kd,ZEKE>/EZ/d/^
Ͳ ZĞƐƉŽŶƐĞ
Ͳ ZĞĐŽǀĞƌLJ
tĞŝŐŚƚŶŝŶŐ
ŽŶƐŝƐƚĞŶĐLJĞǀĂůƵĂƚŝŽŶ
ŽƌƌĞůĂƚŝŽŶĞǀĂůƵĂƚŝŽŶ

Z^/>/EKDDhE/dz/Ey;^ĐŽƌĞͿ

EŽ
/ƐƐƵĨĨŝĐŝĞŶƚ͍

zĞƐ
Z^/>/EdKDDhE/dz
 
)LJ+ROLVWLFFRPPXQLW\UHVLOLHQFHDVVHVVPHQWPHWKRG
 Fulvio Toseroni et al. / Energy Procedia 95 (2016) 491 – 498 497

7KH SURFHVVHV UHODWHG WR WKH GHILQLWLRQ RI D ILQDO HYDOXDWLRQ VFRUH WDNHV LQWR DFFRXQW WKH LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI D
FRPSRVLWH LQGLFDWRU DSSURDFK 7KLV DSSURDFK LQFOXGHV GDWD WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ LQWR FRPSDUDEOH VFDOHV H[FOXVLRQ RI
FRUUHODWHGLQGLFDWRUVDIXUWKHUZHLJKWLQJDQGDILQDOYDOLGDWLRQDQGWHVWLQJ:LWKLQWKLVDSSURDFKDVHWRIFRPSRVLWH
LQGLFDWRUVZKLFKDUHUHSUHVHQWDWLYHUHOHYDQWDQGUREXVWPXVWEHJXDUDQWHHG:LWKWKLVDSSURDFKLWZRXOGEHSRVVLEOH
WR LQYHVWLJDWH KRZ WKH HIIHFW RI SRWHQWLDO PHDVXUH HQKDQFLQJ UHVLOLHQFH RQ GLIIHUHQW GLPHQVLRQV ZLOO SURYLGH DQ
RYHUDOOLQFUHDVHZLWKLQWKHVFRUH 7KHSRWHQWLDOLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRIVXSSRUWLQJDFWLRQVWRGHILQHVFHQDULRVDLPLQJWR
HQKDQFHUHVLOLHQFHZLOOEHLPSOHPHQWHGWURXJKWKHEDVHGFRQFHSWRI5GHYHORSHGE\%UXQHDX>@DQG&LPHOODUR
>@$FFRUGLQJWRWKHVFKHPHRI)LJWKLVDVSHFWZLOOEHEHQHILFLDOWRHYDOXDWHLQDVHFRQGURXQGWKHFRPPXQLW\
UHVLOLHQFHEDVHGRQDFRPSRVLWHLQGLFDWRUVSODWIRUPWRHYDOXDWHWKHRYHUDOOEHQHILWORRNLQJWRZDUGDILQDODLPRID
UHVLOLHQWFRPPXQLW\
7KHSURSRVHGPHWKRGRORJLFDODSSURDFKZRXOGOLNHWRLQWHJUDWHWKHHIIHFWVUHODWHGWRFKDQJHVRIUHVLOLHQFHGXHWR
VFDOH FDVFDGH HIIHFWV DQG LQWHUFRQQHFWLYLW\ ZLWKLQ WKH FRPPXQLW\ UHVLOLHQFH FRPSRVLWH LQGLFDWRU HYDOXDWLRQ )RU
H[DPSOHWKHOLQNDPRQJWKHSK\VLFDOGLPHQVLRQLHSK\VLFDOLQIUDVWUXFWXUHVDQGWKHVRFLDOGLPHQVLRQLVDNH\LVVXH
ZLWKLQ WKH VFLHQWLILF DUHQD -DFNVRQ >@ UHFRJQL]HG WKDW ³5HJDUGLQJ WKH UHVLOLHQFH RI WHFKQRORJLFDO V\VWHPV WKH
SRLQWLVXVXDOO\PDGHWKDWWKHSHRSOHDQGLQIUDVWUXFWXUHVVXUURXQGLQJWKHWHFKQRORJLFDOV\VWHPVDOVRDUHLQYROYHGLQ
HQVXULQJUHVLOLHQFH´
1HYHUWKHOHVV WKH LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI LQGLFHV FDQ EULQJ PLVOHDGLQJ FRQFOXVLRQV 7KXV WKH LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI D
V\VWHP G\QDPLF PRGHOOLQJ PHWKRGRORJ\ >±@ ZRXOG UHSUHVHQW DQ LQWHJUDWLRQ WR EH FRQVLGHUHG WR HYDOXDWH WKH
QRQOLQHDULW\ RI WKH LQWHUDFWLRQ DPRQJ WKHGLPHQVLRQV FRQVLGHUHG ,Q WKLV ZD\ WKH LQWHUDFWLRQEHWZHHQ DQG DPRQJ
SK\VLFDODFWLYLWLHVLQIRUPDWLRQIORZVDQGSROLF\PHDVXUHVFDQEHLGHQWLI\WKXVUHYHDOLQJWKHG\QDPLFDOQDWXUHRIWKH
YDULDEOHV

&RQFOXVLRQ

7KLVSDSHUSURYLGHVDSUHOLPLQDU\DWWHPSWWRGHYHORSDPHWKRGRORJLFDODSSURDFKIRUPHDVXULQJDQGPRQLWRULQJ
WKHGLVDVWHUUHVLOLHQFHRIFRPPXQLW\GHILQHGDV+ROLVWLF&RPPXQLW\5HVLOLHQFH$VVHVVPHQW0HWKRG7KHSURSRVHG
DSSURDFKSURYLGHVWKHEDVHOLQHWRFRUUHFWO\LPSOHPHQWTXDQWLWDWLYHPHWULFVRIUHVLOLHQFHWKDWFDQEHZHOOXQGHUVWRRG
DVWKXVLPSOHPHQWHGLQSROLF\DQGGHFLVLRQPDNLQJSURFHVVHVORRNLQJWRZDUGHQKDQFLQJUHVLOLHQFHRIFRPPXQLWLHV
7KLV SDSHU LV WKXV PRYLQJ WRZDUG WKH '55 PDQDJHPHQW EH\RQG WKH FRQFHSW RI ULVN DQG SURSRVHG D TXDQWLWDWLYH
DVVHVVPHQW IUDPHZRUN RI UHVSRQGLQJ FDSDFLW\ RI D WHUULWRULDO V\VWHP DQG WKXV LWV UHVLOLHQFH :LWKLQ WKH SURSRVHG
IUDPHZRUNWKHFRQFHSWRI4XDUDQWHOOLUHODWHGWRWKHFODVVLILFDWLRQRIDQHYHQWIURPDFFLGHQWWRGLVDVWHULVFRQVLGHUHG
LQRUGHUWRLGHQWLI\WHUULWRULDOWKUHVKROGEHQFKPDUNLQJDQGWKXVFDSDFLW\WRFRSHWKHLPSDFWRIDQH[WUHPHHYHQW7KH
IUDPHZRUNLQWHJUDWHVWKH'523DQG&'5)IUDPHZRUNWKHFRQFHSWH[SUHVVHGE\%UXQHDXZLWKLQWKHGHILQLWLRQRI
UHVLOLHQFH XQGHU WKH 5 YLHZ 5DSLGLW\ 5REXVWQHVV 5HGXQGDQF\ 5HVRXUFHIXOQHVV DQG WKH XVH RI FRPSRVLWH
LQGLFDWRUVZLWKLQWKHGHILQLWLRQRIDUHVLOLHQFHLQGH[7KHSURSRVHGPHWKRGRORJLFDODSSURDFKLVLQIDFWSURYLGLQJWKH
RSSRUWXQLW\WRPDSFRPPXQLW\UHVLOLHQFHE\DVVHVVLQJHQHUJ\DQGUHVRXUFHFRQVXPSWLRQWRPDLQWDLQWKHVWDELOLW\RI
DVRFLRHFRORJLFDOV\VWHP7KHILQDOUHVXOWVIURPWKHSURSRVHGDSSURDFKVKRXOGORRNWRZDUGWKHGUDZLQJRIPDSVRI
UHVLOLHQFH QHFHVVDU\ WR SODQQHUV DQG SROLF\ PDNHUV WR DVVHVV WKH HIIHFWV DQG VXVWDLQDELOLW\ RI GLIIHUHQW '55
VWUDWHJLHV DQG SROLFLHV 7KH PHWKRGRORJ\ FDQ EH JHQHUDOL]HG DQG H[SDQGHG WR HPHUJLQJ KD]DUGV UDWKHU WKDQ RQO\
QDWXUDOGLVDVWHUV6WLOOWKHRYHUDOOIUDPHZRUNQHHGVDUHILQLQJDLPHGWRGHILQHWKHHIIHFWVRILQWHUDFWLRQFDVFDGLQJ
HIIHFWVDQGVFDOHHIIHFWVDPRQJDQGZLWKLQWKHGLPHQVLRQVRIWKHFRPPXQLW\UHVLOLHQFH0RUHRYHUUHDODSSOLFDWLRQ
DQGWHVWRQDFDVHVWXG\PXVWEHH[SORUHG

5HIHUHQFHV

>@ 1DWXUDO&DWDVWURSKHV0XQFKHQ0QFKHQHU5FNYHUVLFKHUXQJV*HVHOOVFKDIW
>@ ,OFDPELDPHQWRFOLPDWLFR0LODQR0XHQFKHQHU5XFN,WDOLD
>@ ,QWHUJRYHUQPHQWDO3DQHORQ&OLPDWH&KDQJH7KH,3&&6SHFLDO5HSRUWRQPDQDJLQJWKHULVNVRIH[WUHPHHYHQWVDQGGLVDVWHUVWRDGYDQFH
FOLPDWHFKDQJHDGDSWDWLRQ1HZ<RUN&DPEULGJH8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV
>@ 8QLWHG1DWLRQ(QYLURQPHQWDQG'HYHORSPHQWFRQIHUHQFH
>@ :KLWH*%XUWRQ,.DWHV57KHHQYLURQPHQWDVKD]DUG1HZ<RUN7KH*XLOIRUG3UHVV
>@ :KLWH*)1DWXUDOKD]DUGVORFDOQDWLRQDOJOREDO1HZ<RUN2[IRUG8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV
498 Fulvio Toseroni et al. / Energy Procedia 95 (2016) 491 – 498

>@ $OH[DQGHU'(7KHVWXG\RIQDWXUDOGLVDVWHUV±VRPHUHIOHFWLRQVRQDFKDQJLQJILHOGRINQRZOHGJHLQ'LVDVWHUV±


>@ 7XUQHU%0DQPDGHGLVDVWHUV/RQGRQ:\NHKDP3XEEOLFDWLRQV
>@ 81±*HQHUDO$VVHPEO\,QWHUQDWLRQDO'HFDGHIRU1DWXUDO'LVDVWHU5HGXFWLRQUHVROXWLRQDFW1HZ<RUN
>@ 81±*HQHUDO $VVHPEO\ 6WUHQJWKHQLQJ RI WKH FRRUGLQDWLRQ RI KXPDQLWDULDQ HPHUJHQF\ DVVLVWDQFH RI WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV UHVROXWLRQ DFW
1HZ<RUN
>@ 81<RNRKDPD6WUDWHJ\DQG3ODQRI$FWLRQIRUD6DIHU:RUOG*XLGHOLQHVIRU1DWXUDO'LVDVWHU3UHYHQWLRQ3UHSDUHGQHVVDQG0LWLJDWLRQ
:RUOG&RQIHUHQFHRQ1DWXUDO'LVDVWHU5HGXFWLRQ<RNRKDPD
>@ 81±*HQHUDO$VVHPEO\810LOOHQQLXP'HFODUDWLRQ1HZ<RUN
>@ 81,6'5+\RJR'HFODUDWLRQ, LQ:RUOG&RQIHUHQFHRQ'LVDVWHU5HGXFWLRQ.REH
>@ 0D\XQJD-68QGHUVWDQGLQJDQG$SSO\LQJWKH&RQFHSWRI&RPPXQLW\'LVDVWHU5HVLOLHQFH$FDSLWDOEDVHGDSSURDFK0XQLFK
>@ $OH[DQGHU'(5HVLOLHQFHDQGGLVDVWHUULVNUHGXFWLRQDQHW\PRORJLFDOMRXUQH\/RQGRQ1DWXUDO+D]DUGV(DUWK6\VWHP6FLHQFH
>@ +ROOLQJ&65HVLOLHQFHDQGVWDELOLW\RIHFRORJLFDOV\VWHPV$QQXDO5HYLHZRI(FRORJ\DQG6\VWHPDWLFV±
>@ )LNVHO-'HVLJQLQJ5HVLOLHQW6XVWDLQDEOH6\VWHPV(QYLURQ6FL7HFKQRO±
>@ $GJHU:16RFLDODQGHFRORJLFDOUHVLOLHQFHDUHWKH\UHODWHG"3URJUHVVLQ+XPDQ*HRJUDSK\6HSWHPEHU±
>@ .OHLQ5-71LFKROOV5-7KRPDOOD)5HVLOLHQFHWRQDWXUDOKD]DUGVKRZXVHIXOLVWKLVFRQFHSW"(QYLURQPHQWDO+D]DUGV±±
>@ 6PLWK.(QYLURQPHQWDO+D]DUGV$VVHVVLQJ5LVNDQG5HGXFLQJ'LVDVWHUUGHGLWLRQ/RQGRQ
>@ 4XDUDQWHOOL(/(PHUJHQFLHVGLVDVWHUDQGFDWDVWURSKHVDUHGLIIHUHQWSKHQRPHQD'LVDVWHU5HVHDUFK&HQWHU8QLYHUVLW\RI'HODZDUH
>@ %HUNHV ) &ROGLQJ - )RONH & HG 1DYLJDWLQJ VRFLDO±HFRORJLFDO V\VWHPV EXLOGLQJ UHVLOLHQFH IRU FRPSOH[LW\ DQG FKDQJH &DPEULGJH
&DPEULGJH8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV
>@ 3OXPPHU5$UPLWDJH'$UHVLOLHQFHEDVHGIUDPHZRUNIRUHYDOXDWLQJDGDSWLYHFRPDQDJHPHQW/LQNLQJHFRORJ\HFRQRPLFVDQGVRFLHW\LQ
DFRPSOH[ZRUOG(FRORJLFDO(FRQRPLFV±
>@ 'XLMQKRYHQ + 1HHI 0 )UDPLQJ 5HVLOLHQFH )URP D PRGHOEDVHG DSSURDFK WR D PDQDJHPHQW SURFHVV 3URFHGLD (FRQRPLFV DQG )LQDQFH
±
>@ &XWWHU 6/ %DUQHV / %HUU\ 0 %XUWRQ &* (YDQV ( 7DWH (& :HEE - $ SODFHEDVHG PRGHO IRU XQGHUVWDQGLQJ FRPPXQLW\ UHVLOLHQFHWR
QDWXUDOGLVDVWHUV*OREDO(QYLURQPHQWDO&KDQJH±
>@ -RUGDQ ( -DYHUQLFN:LOO $ 0HDVXULQJ &RPPXQLW\ 5HVLOLHQFH DQG 5HFRYHU\ $ &RQWHQW $QDO\VLV RI ,QGLFDWRUV &RQVWUXFWLRQ 5HVHDUFK
&RQJUHVV
>@ 6FKQHLGHUEDXHU 6 (KUOLFK ' 6RFLDO OHYHOV DQG KD]DUG LQ GHSHQGHQFH LQ GHWHUPLQLQJ YXOQHUDELOLW\ %LUNPDQQ - HG 0HDVXULQJ
YXOQHUDELOLW\WRQDWXUDOKD]DUGV7RZDUGVGLVDVWHUUHVLOLHQWVRFLHWLHV7RN\R8QLWHG1DWLRQV8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV
>@ %LUNPDQQ - 0HDVXULQJ 9XOQHUDELOLW\ WR 1DWXUDO +D]DUGV 7RZDUGV 'LVDVWHU 5HVLOLHQW 6RFLHWLHV 1HZ <RUN 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV 3XEOLFDWLRQV

>@ 5LVN DQG 5HVLOLHQFH 5HVHDUFK *URXS &HQWHU IRU 6HFXULW\ 6WXGLHV &66 (7+ =ULFK &RPPLVVLRQHG E\ WKH )HGHUDO 2IILFH IRU &LYLO
3URWHFWLRQ)2&3=XULFK
>@ 5HQVFKOHU&6)UD]LHU$($UHQGW/$&LPHOODUR*35HLQKRUQ$0%UXQHDX0$)UDPHZRUNIRU'HILQLQJDQG0HDVXULQJ5HVLOLHQFHDW
WKH &RPPXQLW\ 6FDOH 7KH 3(23/(6 5HVLOLHQFH )UDPHZRUN 1HZ <RUN 0XOWLGLVFLSOLQDU\ &HQWHU IRU (DUWKTXDNH (QJLQHHULQJ 5HVHDUFK
0&((5
>@ 0D\XQJD-60HDVXULQJWKH PHDVXUH$ PXOWLGLPHQVLRQDOVFDOH PRGHO WR PHDVXUHFRPPXQLW\GLVDVWHU UHVLOLHQFHLQWKH86 *XOI&RDVW
UHJLRQ3K'7H[DV$ 08QLYHUVLW\
>@ &XWWHU6/9XOQHUDELOLW\WRHQYLURQPHQWDOKD]DUGV3URJUHVVLQ+XPDQ*HRJUDSK\±
>@ &XWWHU6/)LQFK&7HPSRUDODQGVSDWLDOFKDQJHVLQVRFLDOYXOQHUDELOLW\WRQDWXUDOKD]DUGV31$6±
>@ &XWWHU6/%XUWRQ&(PULFK&'LVDVWHU5HVLOLHQFH,QGLFDWRUVIRU%HQFKPDUNLQJ%DVHOLQH&RQGLWLRQV-RXUQDORI+RPHODQG6HFXULW\DQG
(PHUJHQF\0DQDJHPHQW
>@ %UXQHDX0&KDQJ6((JXFKL57/HH*&2¶5RXUNH7'5HLQKRUQ$06KLQR]XND07LHUQH\.7:DOODFH:$9RQ:LQWHUIHOGW'$
IUDPHZRUNWRTXDQWLWDWLYHO\DVVHVVDQGHQKDQFHWKHVHLVPLFUHVLOLHQFHRIFRPPXQLWLHV(DUWKTXDNH6SHFWUD±
>@ &LPHOODUR*3)XPR&5HLQKRUQ$0%UXQHDX04XDQWLILFDWLRQRIVHLVPLFUHVLOLHQFHRIKHDOWKFDUHIDFLOLWLHV0&((5WHFKQLFDOUHSRUW
0&((5%XIIDOR1<0XOWLGLVFLSOLQDU\FHQWHUIRUHDUWKTXDNHHQJLQHHULQJUHVHDUFK
>@ -DFNVRQ 6 $ PXOWLGLVFLSOLQDU\ IUDPHZRUN IRU UHVLOLHQFH WR GLVDVWHUV DQG GLVUXSWLRQV -RXUQDO RI ,QWHJUDWHG 'HVLJQ DQG 3URFHVV 6FLHQFH
í
>@ )RUUHVWHU-:,QGXVWULDOG\QDPLFVDPDMRUEUHDNWKURXJKIRUGHFLVLRQPDNHUV+DUYDUG%XVLQHVV5HYLHZ
>@ 6WHUPDQ-'%XVLQHVV'\QDPLFV6\VWHPV7KLQNLQJDQG0RGHOOLQJIRUD&RPSOH[:RUOG1HZ<RUN0F*UDZ+LOO
>@ %OXPEHUJD$7LPPD/5RPDJQROL)%OXPEHUJD''\QDPLFPRGHOOLQJRIDFROOHFWLRQVFKHPHRIZDVWHSRUWDEOHEDWWHULHVIRUHFRORJLFDO
DQGHFRQRPLFVXVWDLQDELOLW\-RXUQDORI&OHDQHU3URGXFWLRQí