Effect of Climate Change On Sea Water in PDF

Effect of Climate Change on Sea Water Intrusion
in the Nile Delta Coastal Aquifer
By
Bakinam Tarik Ahmed Essawy
B.Sc. Civil Engineering - Cairo University 2007
A Thesis Submitted to the

Faculty of Engineering at Cairo University
In Partial Fulfillment of the
Requirements for the Degree of
MASTER OF SCIENCE
In
Irrigation and Hydraulics
Faculty of Engineering, Cairo University

Giza, Egypt
July 2013
1
By
B.Sc. Civil Engineering - Cairo University 2007

MASTER OF SCIENCE
In
Supervised by:
Dr. Ahmed E. Hassan Dr. Khaled H. Hamed Dr. Hesham M. Bekhit
Professor Professor Associate Professor
Irrigation and Hydraulics Department

Giza, Egypt
July 2013
2
By
B.Sc. Civil Engineering

MASTER OF SCIENCE
In
Approved by the
Examining Committee
Prof. Dr.
_______________________________
Prof. Dr.
______________________________
Prof. Dr.
______________________________

Giza, Egypt
July 2013
3
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
First of all, I am Grateful to The Mighty Allah for establishing me to complete

this thesis.
I wish to express my deepest thanks to my supervisors, Prof. Dr. Ahmed

Hassan, for his extraordinary help and endless patience without which this work
would not have been possible, and for providing me with all the necessary facilities. I
thank him for his enthusiasm, inspiration, and persistence. He has made a deep
impression on me and I owe him lots of gratitude.
I would also like to express my thankful recognition to Prof. Dr. Khaled

Hussien. I really appreciated the liberties he gave me in developing my ideas. He was
a valuable supervisor sharing his experience, good advice and countless ideas.
I also would like to thank my co-advisor, Prof. Dr. Hesham Bekhit, who kept an
eye on the progress of my work, and was always available when I needed his advice,
as there is no words can express my deep respect for Dr. Hesham for helping me and
my husband. Without his common-sense, knowledge and perceptiveness, I would
have never finished this work. His guidance helped me in all the time of research and
writing of this thesis. I could not have imagined having a better co-advisor and mentor
for my master study.
I also would like to express my deep appreciation to Prof. Dr. Mohamed abdel
Motaleb, who really helped me a lot, and giving me a spare time to finish my thesis,
as he was supportive and egger that I could finish my thesis as soon as possible.
I cannot forget to thank my colleagues in the Nile forecasting Center, Planning

Sector, Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, for their continuous support
throughout the research time.
I would also like to express my thankful recognition to Prof. Dr. Ahmed Wagdy
and Prof. Dr. Madiha Hassan for serving on my master committee. I deeply appreciate
their helpful responses and suggestions regarding my dissertation.
i
I cannot end without thanking my family on their continuous encouragement
and the love they had for me throughout my life. I feel a deep sense of gratitude to my
father, Prof. Dr. Tarik Essawy, and my mother, Dr. Nemat Eid. Mammy and Pappy I
will always be proud of you. I hope that I made you proud of me too, as I really owe
you a lot. This dissertation is entirely dedicated to them. I also would like to thank my
father in law Prof. Dr. Morsy Anwar for his support, and how he helped me to finish
my masters, and my mother in law for her love, and encouragement to me.
I also thank my sisters, Basma, Heba, and Mona, and my brother, Ahmed, for
their support and encouragement during the difficult times I sometimes had during my
study.
My very special thanks and sincere gratitude goes to my Husband Mohamed

Morsy, for his support, sacrifices, and enthusiasm in following and learning about my
research. I sincerely thank him for his help and understanding and tolerating the late
nights and the early mornings I spent working on my research, and taking care of our
daughter. I could not have accomplished this without his loving support. I also thank
him for great happiness he added to my life and for providing me with the spirit that
provided me great motivation. Mohamed I really cannot imagine my life without you.
I would not have made it so far in life without the support of you all and I hope
I am able to give one-tenth as much as I received. Also to those not mentioned who
supplied something by way of encouragement, discussion, and interest, I offer my
sincere thanks.
I also want to thank the people who tried to depress me, that my research topic
is hard, and it is impossible to make any research in that topic, and there is no way
that I could finish it. I would like to say thank you very much as your words to me
was my fuel that pushed forward.
At the end hoping that the light of my life Zeina, will be proud of me, as all
what I am doing is just to make her, one day proud of me.
ZEINA I LOVE YOU
ii
ABSTRACT
Due to climate change the sea water level is expected to rise. Studies report that
future sea-level rise due to climate change is expected to occur at a rate greatly
exceeding that of the recent past. For example during the next 100 years, sea levels
are expected to rise at a rate between 20–88 mm/yr according to the 2001 report of the
Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Different measures are thus
needed to control seawater intrusion and to protect the groundwater resources. The
main principle is to increase the volume of fresh groundwater and reduce the volume
of saltwater. In order to understand the interactions between sea level rise and
increased seawater intrusion, a full three-dimensional model is needed. Also,
evaluating different mitigation measures is more realistic in three dimensions.
The main objective of this study is to assess the impact of expected sea level
rise on the groundwater resources in the Nile Delta and to evaluate alternative
mitigation measures that can be implemented should such rise become a reality. In
order to achieve this general objective, a three-dimensional groundwater model is
developed for the Nile Delta region and the density-driven flow problem associated
with seawater intrusion is solved using the well-established Groundwater Modeling
System (GMS) package that includes the MODFLOW, MT3d and SEAWAT. After
being successfully calibrated and verified the model is used to address the effect of
sea level rise on groundwater resources in the Nile Delta under different scenarios
ranging from very optimistic to very pessimistic predictions.
The model is also used to evaluate different mitigation mechanisms and assess
their efficiency in terms of reducing the amount of “contaminated” groundwater
resources (i.e., resources with increased salinity). It is found that the movement of the
seawater-freshwater interface (or transition zone) will be almost steady after 400
years from the start of the sea level rise. It is also found that the maximum percentage
loss of fresh water is about 2.2%, which means that the sea level rise on the long run
is not causing a dramatic effect on groundwater resources. This implies that simple
mitigation measures such as recharging the agricultural zone with fresh water will
overcome the problem of increased saltwater intrusion.
iii
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .............................................................................................. i
ABSTRACT ..................................................................................................................iii
TABLE OF CONTENTS.............................................................................................. iv
LIST OF FIGURES ...................................................................................................... vi
LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................................... x
LIST OF SYMBOLS AND ABBREVIATIONS ......................................................... xi
CHAPTER 1 .................................................................................................................. 1
INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 1
1.1 General ................................................................................................................. 1
1.2 Statement of the Problem ..................................................................................... 2
1.3 Thesis Objectives and Methodology .................................................................... 5
CHAPTER 2 .................................................................................................................. 7
LITERATURE REVIEW .............................................................................................. 7
2.1 Saltwater-Freshwater Interface in Coastal Aquifers ....................................... 7
2.2 Ghyben-Herzberg Relationship in case of the Nile Delta ............................... 8
2.3 Impact of Climate Change on the Sea Level Rise ........................................... 9
2.4 Effect of Sea Level Rise on the Coastal Aquifer in the Nile Delta ............... 13
2.5 Assessment of the Vulnerability on the Nile Delta coast due to the Impact of
Sea Level Rise and Saltwater Intrusion ................................................................... 14
2.6 Description of the Nile Delta Coastal Aquifer .............................................. 15
2.7 Studies Dealing with the Behavior of the Nile Delta Coastal Aquifers ........ 16
2.8 Studies Done on the Nile Delta Coastal Aquifers ......................................... 17
CHAPTER 3 ................................................................................................................ 19
METHODOLOGY ...................................................................................................... 19
3.1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 19
3.2 Study Area ..................................................................................................... 19
3.3 General Approach and Methodology Stages................................................. 21
3.4 Methodology discussion................................................................................ 21
3.5 Conceptual Model ......................................................................................... 22
3.5.1 Define objectives ....................................................................................... 22
3.5.2 Data collection ........................................................................................... 22
3.5.3 Hydro-geological Properties ...................................................................... 24
iv
3.5.4 Aquifer Hydraulic properties ..................................................................... 27
3.5.5 The recharge and extractions in the Nile Delta ......................................... 29
3.5.6 Building the Conceptual Model ................................................................. 30
3.5.7 Building the Numerical model .................................................................. 31
3.5.8 Model Calibration and Verification........................................................... 31
3.5.9 Model Verification and Validation ............................................................ 34
CHAPTER 4 ................................................................................................................ 36
GROUNDWATER MODELING DEVELOPMENT ................................................. 36
4.1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 36
4.2 Development of the Flow and Transport Numerical Models........................ 36
4.3 Model simulation layers ................................................................................ 37
4.4 Governing Equations for Flow and Transport............................................... 39
4.5 Variable-Density Flow Approximation......................................................... 42
4.6 Coupling Procedure ....................................................................................... 43
4.7 Program Structure ......................................................................................... 44
CHAPTER 5 ................................................................................................................ 45
ANALYSIS AND RESULTS ...................................................................................... 45
CHAPTER 6 ................................................................................................................ 58
MITIGATION MEASURES ....................................................................................... 58
6.1 General .......................................................................................................... 58
6.2 Mitigation Measure Considered .................................................................... 59
6.3 Mitigation Results ......................................................................................... 59
CHAPTER 7 ................................................................................................................ 61
7.1 Conclusions ................................................................................................... 61
7.2 Recommendations ......................................................................................... 62
REFERENCES ............................................................................................................ 63
v
LIST OF FIGURES
Pages
Figure 1.1: Illustration for research motivation and objectives 3
Figure 1.2: Dissertation scope and organization 4
Figure 2.1: Diagram showing definitions and directions for Darcy's law. 7
Figure 2.2: Velocity fluctuations at different scales. a. Pore-to-pore
variations. b. Stratification as a cause of variation. c. Randomly 10
heterogeneous two-dimensional anisotropic medium
Figure 2.3: Spatial distribution of one realization of the hydraulic
conductivity field generated from Gaussian distribution with log- 21
conductivity variance 1.25
Figure 4.1: A schematic diagram showing the process of upscaling where
thin lines represent fine grid and thick lines represent coarse grid. Arrows 34
represent the flux,q(x), at the fine-grid cell boundaries obtained from fine-
grid solution.
Figure 4.2: Fine grid 1024 × 512 cells (∆y = ∆x = 0.2m) description 37
Figure 4.3: MODFLOW output of a single realization of a fine grid 1024 ×
512 cells (∆y = ∆x = 0.2m) showing head contours that can be used along
39
with the conductivity distribution to compute flux magnitude and direction;
the output is shown within the GMS environment.
Figure 4.4: MODFLOW output of a single realization of the coarse grid
256×128 cells (∆y = ∆x = 0.8 m) showing head contours that can be used 39
along with the upscaled conductivity distribution to compute flux magnitude
and direction.
Figure 4.5: The global error calculation at each plane in the coarse grid
41
model and its corresponding plane in the fine grid model.
Figure 4.6: The local error calculation at each cell in the coarse grid model
42
and its corresponding cells in the fine grid model.
Figure 4.7: Global error change with increasing P showing an optimum P
2 43
value of 0.37 for the case with σ = 0.2.
Figure 4.8: Local error change with increasing P showing an optimum P
2 44
value of 0.25 for the case with σ =0.2.
Figure 4.9: Global error change with increasing P showing an optimum P
2 45
vi
Figure 4.10: Local error change with increasing P showing an optimum P
2 45
Figure 4.11: Variation of the global error with P identifying the optimum
2 46
value corresponding to minimum global error for each variance, σ , value.
Figure 4.12: Log conductivity variance and the corresponding optimum P
that minimizes global error with a best fit line superimposed on the plotted 47
points.
Figure 4.13: Variation of the local error with P identifying the optimum
2 48
value corresponding to minimum local error for each variance, σ , value.
Figure 4.14: Log conductivity variance and the corresponding optimum P
that minimizes local error with a best fit line superimposed on the plotted 49
points.
Figure 4.15: Local error value using P optimum for global error and
50
comparison with minimum local error.
Figure 4.16: Global error value using P optimum for local error and
51
comparison with minimum global error.
Figure 5.1: The target of joint upscaling process when upscaling from fine
53
grid to coarse grid.
Figure 5.2: Model description and location of contaminant source and
55
control plane for transport upscaling process.
Figure 5.3: Cumulative, normalized mass flux breakthrough curves for fine
58
and coarse grid using optimum P value for flow (σ2 = 1.5).
Figure 5.4: Mass flux breakthrough curves represented by the number of
particles crossing the control plane for the fine and coarse grid models using 59
optimum P for flow (σ2 = 1.5).
Figure 5.5: Plume snap shot at the last time step for the fine and coarse grid
59
models (σ2 = 1.5).
Figure 5.6: First moment in the x-direction for fine and coarse grid models
60
using optimum P value for flow (σ2 = 1.5).
61
and coarse grid models using optimum P value for flow (σ2 = 0.2).
vii
2
optimum P for flow (σ = 0.2).
Figure 5.9: Plume snap shot at the last time step for the fine and coarse grid
62
models (σ2 = 0.2).
Figure 5.10: First moment in the x-direction for the fine and coarse grid
63
models using optimum P value for flow (σ2 = 0.2).
Figure 5.11: The relation between the transport error, T.E., and the log
64
conductivity variance, σ2.
Figure 5.12: Cumulative breakthrough curve for fine and coarse grid models
using optimum P value for flow and a retardation factor of 1.21 on the 66
2
coarse grid (σ = 0.9).
particles crossing the control plane for the fine and coarse grid models using
66
optimum P for flow and a retardation factor of 1.21 on the coarse grid (σ2 =
0.9)
Figure 5.14: Plume snap shot at the last time step for the fine and coarse
grid models (σ2 = 0.9) with a retardation factor of 1.21 used for the coarse 67
grid simulations.
Figure 5.15: First moment in the x-direction for the fine and coarse grid
models using optimum P value for flow and a retardation factor of 1.21 on 67
the coarse grid (σ2 =0.9)
68
and coarse grid using optimum P value for transport (σ2 = 0.9).
2
optimum P for transport (σ = 0.9).
Figure 5.18: Plume snap shot at the last time step for the fine and coarse
70
grid models using P optimum for transport (σ2 = 0.9).
Figure 5.19: First moment in the x-direction for the fine and the coarse grid
70
models using optimum P value for transport (σ2 = 0.9).
Figure 5.20: Particle trajectories obtained using MODPATH in the fine grid
72
(1024×512 cells).
viii
Figure 5.21: Particle trajectories obtained using MODPATH in the coarse
72
grid (256×128 cells).
Figure 5.22: One particle trajectory through the domain of the model with a
73
coarse grid solution obtained using optimum P for transport (σ2 = 0.9).
Figure 5.23: Temporal variation of the x coordinate of the particle trajectory
on the fine and coarse grid domains using optimum P for transport (σ2 = 74
0.9).
Figure 5.24: Temporal variation of the y coordinate of the particle trajectory
on the fine and coarse grid domains using optimum P for transport (σ2 = 74
0.9).
Figure 5.25: One particle trajectory through the domain of the model with a
coarse grid solution obtained using optimum P for flow and a retardation 75
2
factor of 1.21 (σ = 0.9).
on the fine and coarse grid domains using optimum P for flow and a 76
retardation factor of 1.21 (σ2 = 0.9).
on the fine and coarse grid domains using optimum P for flow and a 76
2
retardation factor of 1.21 (σ = 0.9).
Figure 5.28: The retardation factor for different log conductivity variance
77
and the best-fit line.
ix
LIST OF TABLES
Pages
Table 4.1: Log conductivity variance and the corresponding optimum P
47
value for minimizing global error.
Table 4.2: Log conductivity variance and the corresponding optimum P
48
value for minimizing local error.
Table 5.1: Local and global errors for the cases of using optimum P for
76
flow and transport.
x
LIST OF SYMBOLS AND ABBREVIATIONS
A The area perpendicular to the direction of flow
C The solute concentration in liquid phase
̅ The mean concentration of the contaminant plume
The correlation function
d The local-scale dispersion tensor
The effective diffusion coefficient
Coefficient of longitudinal hydrodynamic dispersion

A second-order tensor called mechanical dispersion
The zero mean fluctuating log conductivity
GE The global error
h1 , h2 Water levels measured at two points
i The hydraulic gradient which is equivalent to (h1-h2)/L
j The particle index
The total number of particles used to simulate the continuous solute

J
mass
K The hydraulic conductivity of the porous medium
The cell hydraulic conductivity of the i-numbered cell in the fine

Ki
grid
Kx, Ky, Kz The hydraulic conductivities in each of the coordinate directions
L The length of flow path between the two points
LE Local error (mean absolute error)
The first moment in the x-direction
m(Xj) The mass associated with that particle
xi
N The number of fine grid cells within the block
n The effective porosity of the porous medium
Ncy The number of cells in the coarse grid model in y-direction
Nfy The number of cells in the fine grid model in y-direction
NX The number of cells in the coarse grid model in x-direction
Ny The number of cells in the coarse grid model in y-direction
P An exponent known as the power averaging exponent.
Q Rate of flow
Qci The flux passing through a certain plane in the coarse grid model
The groundwater flux passing through a certain plane in the fine

Qfi
grid model
qc The flux passing through a cell interface in the coarse grid model
qf The flux passing through a cell interface in the fine grid model
qx, qy, qz The Darcy flux components in each of the coordinate directions
qω The specific discharge vector at cell ω within the block
qci The flux passing through a certain cell in the coarse grid model
The Darcy flux due to advection
Dispersive solute mass flux in direction i
The Darcy flux due to diffusion
R2 A regression value
R.F. Retardation factor
r The spatial lag
T Time
T.E. The transport error
xii
Time of arrival of 50% of contaminant mass in coarse grid at the
tc
control plane
Time of arrival of 50% of contaminant mass in fine grid at the
tf
control plane
u The position vector that sweeps the inside of the block
The spatial lag
Vx Linear average velocity
, The velocity vector at the old position at time t
v Average linear groundwater velocity
vi The transport velocity in i direction
The old position of the particles
Xj(t) The position of the jth particle at time t
The updated position of the particles
The coordinate in direction i
Z A vector of random numbers
""""""""
Log ! The constant mean of the log conductivity field
σ2 the log conductivity variance
σ$% The fluctuating log-K variance
&
The medium porosity
∆h/L The hydraulic gradient
∆ The time step
∆x The length of uniform square grid in x-direction
∆y The length of uniform square grid in y-direction
(hω The gradient of the piezometric head at cell ω
)(x) The Dirac delta function
xiii
A box function which projects the contributions of particles in a
* small square around any point x to the concentration value at that
point
‫ג‬ The integral scale of the fluctuating log-conductivity
xiv
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
1.1 General
Freshwater is one of the most important natural resources for life. Water
resources and water supply belong to the critical infrastructure in a society and need
special protection. In aquifers which represent groundwater reservoirs, the water is
well protected, better than surface water is, but even this water is at risk. The aquifers
are not similar to each other, but they are unequal for example concerning the size,
location or sensitivity for changes. Small, lowland aquifers lying close to settlement
and rivers are highly vulnerable to all kinds of changes. These aquifers need a special
attention also concerning climate change (EPSON, 2011).
Groundwater is one of the earth’s most broadly distributed and most imperative
natural resources for municipal, agricultural, industrial development and
environmental aspects. In analyzing groundwater system, consideration must be given
to the effective groundwater withdrawals on fluctuation of water levels in the nearby
wells or in a wetland. In coastal areas aquifers are usually in hydraulic contact with
the sea. Under normal conditions the freshwater flows into the sea, but due to density
differences saltwater intrudes into the aquifers. Over abstraction due to high demands
for domestic water supply is one of the causes accelerating saltwater intrusion. A
large number of coastal aquifers are also threatened by increased saltwater intrusion
due to human activities and by natural events such as climate change and sea level
rise.
Rise in sea level due to the climate change accelerates the saltwater intrusion
into the aquifer which adversely impacts the quality of the fresh groundwater
resources. With the impact of sea level rise and over pumping combined together the
problem becomes even more serious and requires fast solutions. It is estimated that
1
the mean sea level will rise in the range of 20 to 88 mm /year during the current
century (IPCC 2001). The rise in sea level will shift the saltwater interface further
inland. As a result, the extraction wells that were originally in fresh groundwater may
then be located in brackish water or saline water and up coning may occur.
Consequently, the abstraction rates of these wells may have to be reduced or the wells
may have to be abandoned. This is considered one of the most serious effects of sea
level rise.
1.2 Statement of the Problem

Climate change is a result of natural and/or man-made activities. Due to climate
change the sea water level is expected to rise. This is justified by several arguments.
First, warmer oceans would expand, and second, melting ice sheets and glaciers
would add to the total volume of water in the oceans (Theon, 1993). Sea level rise has
many effects on coastal regions on the long term such as the increase in coastal
erosion and sea water intrusion.
The left plot of
Figure 1 shows the movement of the saltwater interface under normal

conditions where there is no over pumping or sea level rise. The other plot in Figure 1
shows the increased saltwater intrusion due to over pumping and sea level rise. The
freshwater-saltwater interface is moving inland causing salinization of the land and
groundwater resources. Salinization of groundwater is considered a special category
of pollution that threatens groundwater resources, because mixing a small quantity (3
percent) of saltwater with groundwater makes freshwater unsuitable and can result in
abandonment of freshwater supply (Sherif and Singh, 2002). Some studies argue that
future sea-level rise due to climate change is expected to occur at a rate greatly
2
exceeding that of the recent past. For example during the next 100 years, sea-levels
are expected to rise at a rate between 20–88 mm/yr. (IPCC, 2001).
Figure 1: Movement of saltwater interface under normal conditions, and in case of saltwater
intrusion due to over pumping and sea level rise (SLR)
Measurements indicate that the water level in the Mediterranean Sea has
increased by an average value of 2.5 mm per year during the last 70 years (Alnagger
et al., 1995). Meanwhile, the coastal region is subject to land subsidence, with an
average value of about 4.7 mm per year. Therefore, the relative deference in land and
sea level is approximately 70 cm per century (Alnagger et al., 1995). The level of the
Nile Delta land ranges between +17 m above sea level at the south boundary to less
than one meter at the north boundary (Farid, 1985). The groundwater resources
beneath such low lands will be lost as a result (Sherif and Singh, 1999). Thus, the
effect of climate change, sea water rise and pumping activities on the seawater
intrusion in the Nile Delta aquifer of Egypt needs to be investigated and mitigation
measures need to be developed.
The sea level rise in the past showed that during the last two millennia the
global sea level variation did not exceed few centimeters (IPCC, 1996a). In the last
100 years the IPCC has estimated that the global mean sea level has risen by about
10-25 cm, with a best estimate of 18 cm. Many studies report that the mean sea level
rise rate is between 10 and 30 mm/year. However, it has been considered that if the
average rise over the last century has been greater than that of the last thousand years
there is as yet no evidence of a consistent increase in the rate of sea level rise during
this century (IPCC, 1996a).
3
Different measurement to control seawater intrusion and to protect the
groundwater resources have been considered in past studies. The main principle is to
prevent saltwater from contaminating groundwater sources, and to increase the
volume of fresh groundwater and reduce the volume of saltwater. Some studies
included measures such as 1) relocation of abstraction wells by moving the wells
further inland (Sherif and Al-Rashed, 2001), 2) naturally recharging the aquifer with
additional surface water (Ru et al., 2001), 3) abstraction of saline water to reduce the
volume of saltwater by extracting brackish water from the aquifer (Sherif and Hamza,
2001), 4) reduction of abstraction rates by reducing pumping rates and using
alternative water resources (Scholze et al., 2002), 5) combining freshwater injection
and saline water abstraction systems to reduce the volume of saltwater and increase
the volume of freshwater (Rastogi et al., 2004), and 6) artificially recharging the
aquifer to increase the groundwater levels, using surface spread for unconfined
aquifers and recharge wells for confined aquifers. The sources of water for injection
may be surface water, groundwater, treated wastewater or desalinated water
(Papadopoulou et al., 2005). Another measure, that was also considered, deals with
using subsurface barriers to prevent the inflow of seawater into the groundwater basin
(Harne et al., 2006).
In most, if not all, of these studies, groundwater modeling is used to evaluate

the effectiveness of each of the proposed measures. Groundwater modeling is
regarded as the best tool to conceptualize the hydrogeological situation in the
groundwater basin and to predict the potential environmental and socioeconomic
impacts of activities or processes impacting the groundwater system. The few studies
that focused on the Nile Delta aquifer only considered two-dimensional modeling
using a vertical slice in the south-north direction. However, in order to understand the
interactions between sea level rise, increased seawater intrusion, pumping rates, and
aquifer characteristics, a full three-dimensional model is needed. Also, evaluating
different mitigation measures is more realistic in three dimensions.
A well developed and calibrated model is thus needed to serve as a tool for
addressing the potential impacts of the sea level rise associated with climate change
and for evaluating the effectiveness of mitigation or corrective measures that can be
4
implemented to combat the increased seawater intrusion. When a groundwater model
is developed using site-specific data and is calibrated and verified using field data,
confidence is increased in the model capabilities to predict future performance and to
analyze what if scenarios that may arise.
1.3 Thesis Objectives and Methodology

The main objective of this study is to assess the impact of expected sea level
rise due to climate change on the groundwater resources in the Nile Delta and to
evaluate alternative mitigation measures that can be implemented should such rise
become a reality. In order to achieve this general objective, the following specific
objectives are considered:
1. To develop a three-dimensional groundwater model and use a density-driven flow

solver to address the problem in realistic three dimensions
2. To address the effect of sea level rise under different scenarios ranging from very
optimistic to very pessimistic predictions
3. To use the model to evaluate different mitigation mechanisms and assess their
efficiency in terms of reducing the amount of “contaminated” groundwater resources
(i.e., resources with increased salinity).
Well established numerical density-driven flow codes such as SUTRA,

FEFLOW, FEMWATER, SEAWAT, etc. can be used for conducting the proposed
research. Previous studies dealing with the saltwater intrusion in the Nile Delta
aquifer and effect of climate change on this aquifer will be compiled and reviewed to
form the foundation of the research work conducted in this study.
The methodology that will be followed in this research has four main stages:
1) Literature review and data collection stage
In this stage an extensive literature review is conducted to compile relevant

studies and form a foundation for the current work. Data relevant to the Nile Delta
aquifer are collected from different sources within the Ministry of Water Resources
and Irrigation to conceptualize and build the modeling domain for the area of interest.
5
2) Model building and calibration stage
Using the data collected in the first stage, a three-dimensional groundwater

model is built and calibrated to field data to arrive at a reasonable starting point (in
terms of groundwater levels and ambient flow directions) before starting the seawater
intrusion analysis. Identifiable hydrogeological features are taken into consideration
to the maximum extent possible.
3) Scenario analysis and impact assessment
Using the conditions of the calibrated model a density-driven code, SEAWAT,

is utilized to analyze the impact of sea level rise on the groundwater resources in the
delta aquifer. Different scenarios are considered and the uncertainty of the amount of
sea level rise is accounted for in this analysis. The purpose here is to determine at
what threshold of sea level rise it becomes critical for the groundwater resources in
the Nile Delta aquifer.
4) Mitigation measures evaluation
The last stage deals with using the calibrated and verified density-driven
modeling tool to evaluate the different mitigation approaches and determine their
efficiency in mitigating the effect of sea level rise.
The issue of climate change and global warming is still a debatable issue within
the scientific community. Some claim and support the prediction of global warming
and the resulting sea level rise, while others cast doubts on these predictions and
indicate the possibility of the reverse trend. This study does not claim to get into this
debate, but rather addresses the potential adverse effects on groundwater resources in
the Nile Delta aquifer should the observed sea level rise trend continue into the future.
This study is expected to produce a tool for assessing the impacts of the sea level rise
on the Nile Delta aquifer and a tool for investigating potential mitigation measures
that can be considered to combat such problem if it were to occur and have significant
impacts on the groundwater resources.
6
CHAPTER 2
LITERATURE REVIEW
There is an increasing debate these days on climate change and its possible
consequences. Much of this debate has focused in the context of surface water systems. In
many arid areas of the world, rainfall is scarce and so is surface runoff. These areas rely
heavily on groundwater. The consequences of climate change on groundwater are long
term and can be far reaching. One of the more apparent consequences is the increased
migration of salt water inland in coastal aquifers. (Sherif, 1999)
Coastal aquifers are the primary source of freshwater supply in many countries
around the world, especially in arid and semi-arid regions, where surface water is scarce,
as water is used in human activities such as agriculture, industry and domestic drinking
water, especially in regions with limited annual precipitation (Todd, 1980).
2.1 Saltwater-Freshwater Interface in Coastal Aquifers

Because water in aquifers is located deep underground, it is less vulnerable to
pollution. As the population growth and agricultural development in coastal areas has
increased, the demand for freshwater. As a result of this demand more stress is being
placed on coastal aquifers. Saltwater intrusion is arguably the most common
contamination problem in aquifers, and a major constraint imposed on groundwater
utilization (Bear et al., 1999). Saline contamination of freshwater resources can cause
significant social, economic, and environmental costs. These problems limit the use of
groundwater and create additional problems in meeting the increasing water demand.
A natural equilibrium exists between discharging fresh groundwater and

seawater in coastal aquifers. This is referred to as the saline interface in this study, but
it is also known as the sea/saltwater-freshwater interface. The position of the saline
interface is dynamic and depends on the geological formation, hydraulic gradient,
topography, and the quantity of freshwater moving through the aquifer system
(Schwartz and Zhang, 2003).
A reduction in groundwater recharge, or an increase in abstraction, can reduce

the hydraulic gradient, the freshwater hydrostatic pressure, and the movement of
freshwater. This can cause the saline interface to move landwards resulting in saline
7
intrusion and a reduction in water quality. The chloride concentration indicative of
saline intruded groundwater is 300 mg/l. As seawater has a chloride concentration of
approximately 19,000 mg/l, very little seawater is sufficient to contaminant freshwater
(McDonald et al., 1998). Therefore, proactive management of coastal aquifers is
essential to ensure sustainable water resources development.
It is important to quantify the effects of pumping on both the shallow

groundwater system, and the dynamics of the saline interface. This is necessary to
protect groundwater against saline intrusion in the face of an increased number of
high volume groundwater, Locating the saline/freshwater interface and monitoring its
dynamics are essential for sustainable management of coastal groundwater systems.
The position of the saline interface, however, is not static and is likely to be a
transitional zone of changing salinity rather than a distinct boundary. Therefore it is
unlikely that discrete measurements will detect these changes (Ingham et al., 2006).
The saline interface is influenced by a number of processes forming a complex

and variable system. The density contrast between fresh groundwater and saline water
leads to mixing and convective circulation at the saline interface. The interface is thus
characterized by a zone of diffusion as the saline water mixes with the discharging
freshwater. Tidal activity can induce a fluctuating water table changing the position of
the interface. Infiltration of surface waters into the sediments can also form a surficial
mixing zone (Westbrook et al., 2005).
2.2 Ghyben-Herzberg Relationship in case of the Nile Delta

According to the Ghyben-Herzberg relationship, a one meter height of free
water table above mean sea level ensures 40 m of freshwater below sea level.
Likewise, a 50 cm rise in sea level causes a 20 m reduction in the freshwater
thickness.
The Ghyben-Herzberg relationship is based on the sharp interface assumption,

which is not realistic, especially when the width of the dispersion zone is large. The
width of the dispersion zone may vary from a few meters to several tens of
kilometers, as, for example, in the case of the Nile Delta aquifer (Sherif et al., 1988).
In the dispersion zone the flow of water and the transport of salt ions are coupled. The
density of the mixed water in the dispersion zone varies from the density of
8
freshwater at the land side to that of sea water at the seaside. The flow of water is
governed by the hydraulic gradient, while the transport of salt ions is dominated by
dispersion and diffusion processes (Sherif et al., 1990). Sea water rise will impose an
additional pressure head at the seaside boundary of the aquifer. The process of sea
water intrusion depends on many hydraulic, geometric and transport parameters. Each
aquifer has its own conditions and the sharp interface approach cannot generally be
applied. Accurate quantitative prediction of the expected sea water intrusion can only
be evaluated through numerical models which account for the dispersion zone.
2.3 Impact of Climate Change on the Sea Level Rise

One of the causes of climate change is increased greenhouse gas concentrations,
most probably carbon dioxide gas (CO2), which resulted from the industrial revolution
and other human activities. Greenhouse gases act on trapping a portion of the sunlight
rays and prevent its reflection back to the outer space, therefore causing average
temperature of the planet to rise.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007), stated with high
certainty that human causes lay behind most of the observed global temperature
increase. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations have increased from approximately 280
ppm (parts per million) in the pre-industrial age to around 430 ppm today. At the level
of 550 ppm, which could be reached as early as 2035, global average temperatures
may rise by more than 2°C. Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, the stock of
greenhouse gases could more than triple by the end of the century, giving at least a
50% risk of temperatures rising by more than 5°C during the decades to follow.
The scale of such an increase could be illustrated by the fact that the climate is
presently 5°C warmer than in the last ice age, which was over 10,000 years ago. The
amount of carbon held in the oceans has increased, causing gradual but steady
acidification that threatens marine ecosystems. Warmer water temperatures have also
caused much coral bleaching. Increasing average temperatures have steadily caused
melting of ice in the Polar Regions as well as of glaciers around the world. Warming
ocean waters may cause the sea level to rise by up to 59 cm by 2100 according to
IPCC 2007 estimates, or even up to 5 meters, if the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet
is taken into consideration. (Arab Report, 2009).
9
Figure 2: Global atmospheric concentration of CO2
Climatic change process is now unequivocal as shown in Error! Reference

source not found. . The global temperature due to increasing concentrations of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is estimated to be 0.13 degree per decade (IPCC,
2007) and is expected to have a full range of temperature projection of 1.1 degree to
6.4 degree by the end of this century. The range of temperature rise is expected to lead
to melting of polar caps and expansion of water in deep oceans with a corresponding
increase in the sea level. It was estimated, that a sea level rise between 18 and 88cm is
expected by the end of the century. (IPCC, 2007).
In addition to expected sea level rise, climate change is also expected to be

associated with an increase of the severity and frequency of extreme events. These
changes are expected to seriously impact water resources, food security, tourism,
natural resources and socioeconomic conditions which would have important
implications for the sustainable development in the region (El-Reay, 2010).
10
Figure 2: Recently published estimates of sea level rise due to climate change worldwide.
The rise of the global mean temperature is expected to be accelerated because of

the growing concentration of greenhouse gasses (CH4, N2O, CFCs) is likely to occur
even before doubling the concentration of CO2 (Berger 1989), and this will cause
increase in the average temperature of the earth by 1.5- 4.5°C in the middle of the
next century. Global warming and climate change will cause change in both quantity
and quality of the components of the hydrological cycle in space, time, and frequency
domains. As climate change includes both increase and decrease in rainfall, the
geographical distribution of rainfall may change and the recharge of aquifers will be
effected (Jacoby 1990). Data from gauges indicate that the sea level rise is around 10-
20 cm over the past century. (Theon 1993)
It is expected that a climate change will take place over the next century in spite
of the international effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This change is
expected to exacerbate already existing environmental problems in many countries. In
particular, coastal areas all over the world are expected to suffer from impacts of sea
level rise (SLR). It is predicted that sea levels may rise from 30–80 cm by 2100. The
majority of this change will occur due to the expansion of the warmer ocean water
(Roaf et al., 2005). Since the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets contain enough water
to raise the sea level by almost 70 m, people will be directly affected by rising sea
levels in several ways.
11
Sea water level may also rise for two reasons. First, warmer oceans would
expand; and secondly, melting ice sheets and glaciers would add to the total volume
of water in the oceans (Theon, 1993). The data obtained from tidal gauges indicate
that the sea level has risen by 20±10 cm over the past century. It is estimated that
about 25% of the rise has resulted from thermal expansion of the oceans. The rest
must be the result of both melting ice sheets and glaciers on the land surface and
depressions in atmospheric pressure. The predicted increase in the sea level is in the
range of 150±50 m within the next 50±150 years (Buddemeneir, 1988).
One of the most affected areas in the Nile delta is Alexandria city, this city is
experiencing a rapid population growth, and a worsening of local environmental
problems, such as beach erosion and pollution (Frihy et al., 1996). This has forced the
city to expand towards low-lying areas (Lake of Maryut) and to reclaim wetlands for
agricultural purposes. Some studies have quantitatively assessed the vulnerability of
Alexandria and adjacent coastal areas to sea level rise using geographic information
systems, remote sensing, modeling techniques and ground-based surveys (El- Raey et
al., 1995, El- Raey et al., 1997, El- Raey, 1998, El- Raey et al., 1998b).
Potential socio-economic impacts in relation to diverse sea level rise scenarios

for Alexandria are shown in Table 1, which depicts the percentage of population and
areas with different land uses of the city of Alexandria at risk of inundation due to sea
level rise scenarios (El-Raey et al., 1998a).
Sea level rise would increase the inundation risk both by increasing the
percentage of people and areas potentially affected and reducing the level of safety of
defense structures, such as sea walls and drainage systems. The intensification of
beach erosion combined with the risk of inundation will produce significant negative
economical impacts on the tourism sector. A potential sea level rise of 30-50 cm
could cause nearly all Alexandria’s beaches to disappear (Frihy et al., 1996). Sea level
rise will also negatively affect coastal infrastructures such as harbors, coastal roads,
tourist installations, coastal industrial installations, and coastal defense structures.
12
Table 1: Percentage of population and areas with different land uses of the city of Alexandria at
risk of inundation due to sea level rise scenarios (El-Raey et al., 1998a)
Sea Level Rise in meters

Sector
0 0.25 0.5 1.0
Population 45 60 67 76
Beaches 1.3 11 47.8 64
Residential 26.2 27.2 39.3 52
Industrial 53.9 56.1 65.9 72.2
Services 45.1 55.2 75.9 82.2
Tourism 28 31 49 62
Restricted area 20 21 25 27
Urban 38 44 56 67
Vegetation 55 59 63 75
Wetland 47 49 58 98
Bare soil 15 24 29 31

2.4 Effect of Sea Level Rise on the Coastal Aquifer in the Nile Delta
As seas rise many areas of the coasts will be submerged, with increasingly
severe and frequent storms and wave damage, shoreline retreat will be accelerated, in
addition to expected disastrous flooding events caused by severe climate events such
as heavy flooding, high tides, windstorms in combination with higher seas. It is noted
that Egypt is considered one of the top five countries expected to be mostly impacted
with a 1.0 m SLR in the world (Dasgupta, et al., 2007).
Several general analyses of the potential impact of SLR on the Nile delta coast
have been carried out. As a result, areas of high vulnerability in the Nile delta and
possible socio-economic impacts
have been generally defined. These high risk areas include parts of Alexandria
and Beheira governorates, Port Said and Damietta governorates, and Suez
governorate. In addition, several other smaller areas, such as those near Matruh
governorate and north of Lake Bardaweel, have also been identified as risked zones.
(El-Raey, 2009).
A study was done on the effect 1.0 m sea level rise on the Nile Delta, where it
concluded that dramatic consequences will happen such as the inundation of about
2000 km2 of land in coastal areas. A substantial erosion of the deltaic area, possibly
13
lead to a loss of about 1,000 km2 (very rough estimate) of agricultural land (Khafagy
et al. 1992).
2.5 Assessment of the Vulnerability on the Nile Delta coast due to

the Impact of Sea Level Rise and Saltwater Intrusion
Freshwater is one of the most important natural resources for life. Water
resources and water supply belongs to the critical infrastructure in a society and needs
a special protection. In aquifers, and groundwater reservoirs, the water is better
protected than surface water is, but even this water is at risk. Aquifers are not similar
to each other, but they are unequal concerning the size, location or sensitivity for
changes, for example. Small, lowland aquifers lying close to settlements and rivers
are highly vulnerable for all kind of changes. These aquifers need a special attention
also concerning climate change (EPSON Report, 2011).
Egypt is one of the African countries that have proved vulnerable to water stress
caused by climate change. The water used in 2000 was estimated at about 70 km3
which is already far greater than the available resources (Gueye et al., 2005). The Nile
delta regions in Egypt as well as many coastal sites in the Gulf countries and North
Africa are found to be highly vulnerable. The vulnerability is not only due to direct
inundation of large areas but also due to salt water intrusion and its potential impact
on groundwater resources and soil salinization. The impacts are reflected on land
productivity, income and health conditions of the population. Implications of
increasing severity and frequency of extreme events will also be reflected in higher
risk of droughts, water scarcity, flash floods, increasing mortality and economic losses
(El Raey, 2010).
Both water supply and demand are expected to be affected by climate change
and SLR. A combination of salt water intrusion due to SLR and increased soil salinity
due to increased evaporation are expected to reduce the quality of shallow
groundwater supplies in the coastal areas. Rainfall measurements in coastal areas are
unpredictable and it is difficult to expect whether rainfall is increasing or decreasing.
The demand for water in Egypt is dominated by three major user groups: agricultural
irrigation, domestic use, and industry. The agricultural sector consumes about 85% of
the annual total water resource. It is therefore likely that any effects of climate change
14
on water supply and demand will be dwarfed by a much larger increase in demand
due to population growth (El-Raey, 1999; El-Gindy, et al., 2001).
As for the Nile Basin, it was found that there is no clear indication of how the
Nile river flow will be affected by SLR, due to uncertainty in projected rainfall
patterns in the basin and the influence of complex water management and water
governance structures (Bates, 2008). Furthermore, it is important to mention that
decrease of water resources might increase friction among countries sharing the same
water resources (e.g. Nile and Euphrates), and might lead to political unrest (El-Raey,
1999).
A study investigated the effect of likely climate change on seawater intrusion.

Under conditions of climate change, the sea water levels will rise which will impose
additional saline water heads at the sea side and therefore more sea water intrusion is
anticipated. A 50 cm rise in the Mediterranean Sea level will cause additional
intrusion of 9.0 km in the Nile Delta aquifer. (Sherif and Singh 1999)
Nile Delta groundwater region is affected directly by the saltwater intrusion,

causing the change in the quality and the productivity of the coastal areas. Focusing
on saltwater intrusion effect we will find that, this intrusion will cause increase in the
soil salinity, as a result will cause decrease in the land productivity and
socioeconomics, migration of people due to health complications.
2.6 Description of the Nile Delta Coastal Aquifer

Egypt's coastal zones constitute particularly important regions economically,
industrially, and socially. The coastal zones of Egypt extend for over 3500 km in
length along both the Mediterranean Sea and Red Sea coasts. The Mediterranean
shoreline is most vulnerable to SLR due to its relatively low elevation. The coastal
zone of Egypt is therefore particularly vulnerable to the impact of SLR, salt water
intrusion. This in turn will directly affect the agricultural productivity and human
settlements in coastal zones (El-Raey, 2009).
The Nile Delta aquifer system is a complex groundwater system. It is a leaky

one, with an upper semi-permeable boundary and lower impermeable boundary. The
aquifer is recharged from the rainfall, and the difference between the Evapo-
15
transpiration and infiltration, leakage from streams in the delta and losses coming
from the drainage pipes through the upper clay layer. It may also be recharged by any
possible flow coming from the Upper Egypt aquifer.
The increase in demand in the Delta area was covered by intensive pumping of
fresh groundwater, causing subsequent lowering of the piezometric head and
upsetting the dynamic balance between the freshwater body and saline water body in
the aquifer. Like any coastal aquifer, an extensive saltwater flux has intruded the Nile
Delta aquifer forming the major constraint against aquifer exploitation (Mohsen M.,
2001).
The Nile Delta aquifer salinity increases northward, reflecting the effect of sea
water on groundwater. The sea water wedge was described suggesting that sea water
intrusion is about 30 km far from shoreline, whereas the points of interface is at
distance of 80 km far from shoreline. (Farid,1980).
The Nile Delta aquifer is classified into three hydro-chemical zones. The
southern zone is characterized by fresh to brackish water of carbonate type and
continental origin. The coastal zone is characterized by fresh to brackish water of
chloride-bicarbonate water type and mixed continental and marine origin. The
northern zone is characterized by saline to highly saline water of marine origin
(Saleh,1980).
2.7 Studies Dealing with the Behavior of the Nile Delta Coastal
Aquifers
A study was conducted on the behavior of the transition zone in the Nile Delta
aquifer under different pumping schemes. The Nile Delta aquifer is considered to be
one of the largest reservoirs in the world. It contains at least 400×109 m3/year. The
fresh groundwater thickness increases with time, most probably due to increasing
surface water diversions (especially in Western Delta and Eastern Delta regions) and
also as an effect of the construction of the High Aswan Dam. The upper portion of the
transition zone in the western part of the Middle Delta (till 10,000 ppm line) is shifted
seaside toward the North while the lower portion is shifted to the South landside. It is
expected that beneath the northern portion of the Delta, possibly also in the offshore
portion, there is a large body of low saline or brackish groundwater. The behavior of
16
the transition zone of the Nile Delta under different pumping schemes has been
studied by utilizing the semi-regional model developed by SUTRA. The most
efficient scheme among many investigated schemes is fresh water withdrawal with
abstraction barrier in the transition and at the coast. The idea of utilizing the
scavenger well scheme in general has been examined as a tool for groundwater
abstraction. It is concluded that the scavenger is applied in case of two different
groundwater qualities. A unique saline well could be used to control four or more
fresh water wells at a certain distance (circle of influence) (Gaame, 2000).
2.8 Studies Done on the Nile Delta Coastal Aquifers

Under conditions of climate change, the sea water levels will rise for several
reasons, including variations in atmospheric pressures, expansion of warmer oceans
and seas, and melting of ice sheets and glaciers. The rise in sea water levels will
impose additional saline water heads at the sea side and therefore more sea water
intrusion is anticipated. A 50 cm rise in the Mediterranean Sea level will cause
additional intrusion of 9.0 km in the Nile Delta aquifer, also the aquifer is more
endangered under the conditions of climate change and sea level rise. Additional
pumping will cause serious environmental effects in the case of the Nile Delta aquifer
(Sherif, 1999).
Global warming and climate change have a multitude of serious consequences.

They change the character (both quantity and quality) of the components of the
hydrological cycle in space, time, and frequency domains.
A parametric study was conducted to compare sharp interface models and

transition zone models. Using a domain of 1.0 km × 1.0 km × 100 m, this study tested
the effect of different parameters on the transition zone or the sharp interface model
results. It was found that sharp interface models are reasonable approximations for
cases with high recharge, small changes in sea level, and low hydraulic conductivity.
The study also tested how injection wells and impermeable barriers can reduce
seawater intrusion using a box domain surrounding the Nile Delta with size 146 km ×
178.5 km × 950 m. She found that increasing injection rates pushes the seawater
downward, but impermeable barriers are found not to be effective in the long term
(Abdel Azeem, 2010)
17
The objective of this study is to investigate the effects of climate change on sea
water intrusion in coastal aquifers of the Nile Delta and see what adaptation and
mitigation measures need to be followed to stop or reduce the movement of the
salt/freshwater interface zone inland, causing the increase of the Nile Delta soil
salinity, which will cause two changes. Firstly, it will decrease the amount of fresh
water that is available, and secondly, the soil will not be suitable for cultivation. The
climate change effect was mimicked using different scenarios, these scenarios will
include rise in the sea level as each scenario will work on raising the sea level by 0.1
m each time till reaching 1.0 m rise. This will be done for 10 different scenarios, and
adaptation and mitigation will be studied for each scenario.
18
CHAPTER 3
METHODOLOGY
3.1 Introduction
This chapter discusses the groundwater flow modeling process for the Nile
Delta aquifer by using MODFLOW to simulate the groundwater flow, MT3D to
simulate the transport (salinity), and SEAWAT model that combines the previous two
models to solve the density-driven flow problem. The model development is
presented in the following sections through describing each of the following stages:
1 Study area
2 Conceptual Model Development
a- Defining Objectives
b- Collecting Data
c- Building Conceptual Model
3 Numerical Model Development
a- Designing Model Grid
b- Assigning Boundary Conditions
c- Assigning Model Parameters
4 Model Calibration, Verification and Validation
3.2 Study Area

This research discusses the problem that faces the coastal region in Egypt due to
the climate change and how it affects the coastal region, as Egypt is one of the most
vulnerable countries that would suffer from the effect of climate change in its coastal
aquifers. Egypt lies between latitudes 22o and 32 o North, and longitudes 25 o and 35 o
East. The North boundary of Egypt is the Mediterranean Sea, and the East is the Red
sea. The South and West are political boundaries with Sudan and Libya, respectively.
The total area of Egypt is equal to about one million km2, about 94% of which is
desert. The Nile Delta and its fringes, covering about 22,000 km2, lies between
latitudes 30 o 05\ and 31 o 30\ North, and longitudes 29 o 50\ and 32 o 15\ East, At a
distance of 20 km North-West of Cairo (Delta Barrage), and at an elevation of 17m
above the sea level, the Nile Valley begins to open out into a triangular alluvial Delta
19
with a base length of 275 km along the Mediterranean sea joining Alexandria and
Port-Said. The level of the Delta land ranges between 17 m above the sea level at the
South to less than one meter at the North boundary, Farid (1985).
The Nile Delta region lies within the temperate zone, which is a part of the great
Desert belt. The average temperatures in January and July at Cairo are 12 oC and 31
o
C, respectively. Minimum and maximum temperatures at Cairo are 3 oC and 48 oC,
respectively. Rainfall over the Nile Delta is rare and occurs in winter. Maximum
average rainfall along the Mediterranean Sea shore, where most of the rain occurs, is
about 180 mm. This amount decreases very rapidly inland to about 26 mm at Cairo.
The Nile Delta aquifer is among the largest underground freshwater reservoirs in the
world. It extends over six million acres, and is naturally bounded Northward by the
Mediterranean Sea and Eastward by the Suez Canal. The Western boundary extends
into the desert. At the South, the aquifer demises and seems to be isolated from the
aquifer of Upper Egypt by an aquiclude approaching the clay cap near Cairo at El-
Manawat (Sherif 2001).
The bulk of the Nile Delta aquifer consists of deltaic deposits 300-400 m thick
on average. Shata and Hefny (1995) indicated that in the Delta area, as well as its
fringes, the strata of hydrological importance belong essentially to the Quaternary and
to the Tertiary. Of these strata, the deltaic deposits (200-500 m thick) that belong to
the Pleistocene constitute the bulk of the main aquifer. These are dominated by
unconsolidated coarse sands and gravel, with occasional clay lenses. The top
boundary of the deltaic deposits, which acts as a cap for the aquifer, is composed of
semi-pervious clay and silt layers. The clay cap is intermeshing with the aquifer near
the shore.
The Nile Delta aquifer system is a complex groundwater system. It is a leaky

one, with an upper semi-permeable boundary and lower impermeable boundary. The
aquifer is recharged by the infiltration from irrigation network, excess of irrigation
water and little precipitation through the upper clay layer. It may also be recharged by
any possible flow coming from the Upper Egypt aquifer. The increase in demand in
the Delta area was covered by intensive pumping of fresh groundwater, causing
subsequent lowering of the piezometric head and upsetting the dynamic balance
between freshwater body and saline water body in the aquifer. Like any coastal
20
aquifer, an extensive saltwater flux has intruded the Nile Delta aquifer forming a
major constraint against aquifer exploitation.
3.3 General Approach and Methodology Stages

This section discusses the methodology steps followed in the research. Error!
Reference source not found. shows the general methodology followed in developing
and using the groundwater model. The main stages of the model building process are
the conceptual model development, the numerical model development, the model
calibration and verification, and then the use of the model for predictive simulations
and analysis. The following subsections describe each of these stages in some detail.
Figure 4: Methodology flowchart
3.4 Methodology discussion

This chapter discusses the methodology steps that were followed in the
research. Also this chapter will include the available data used in the research. The
methodology was divided into steps, as the following few lines will explain.
21
3.5 Conceptual Model
The conceptual model is a hypothesis for how a system or process operates. This
hypothesis can be expressed quantitatively as a mathematical model. Mathematical
models are abstractions that represent processes as equations, physical properties as
constants or coefficient in the equations and measures of state or potential in the system
as variables, (Konikow and Bredehoeft 1992).
The first step in developing a groundwater model is building the conceptual

model, as it represents the flow of the groundwater system. A conceptual model is a
basic graphical representation of a complex natural aquifer system that can more
easily be adjusted prior to dedicating the effort in developing the numerical model
(Wayne Hesch,2009).
3.5.1 Define objectives

The objective of the research is to highlight the potential impacts of climate
change related variables, such as the sea level rise and how it affects the groundwater
resources in the Nile delta. This is done by evaluating the effect of the sea level rise
on the salt/fresh water interface in the Nile delta and proposing some mitigation
measures to minimize the movement of the salt/fresh water interface further inland.
3.5.2 Data collection

Data are gathered to develop the model to study the movement of the fresh/salt
water interface in the Nile Delta. These data include: Hydro-geological Map (geologic
formulation, hydrological boundaries), Clay Layer Thickness Map (Upper Aquifer),
Quaternary Aquifer Thickness Map (Lower Aquifer), Initial Piezometric Head Map
(groundwater flow direction), Initial condition for the salinity distribution, Net
Recharge Map. Other data necessary for the simulation can be defined at the
conceptual model level.
22
Figure 5: Nile Delta Boundary Conditions (RIGW; 1992).
Error! Reference source not found. shows the interface of the model. The
Nile Delta lies between latitudes 30° 00΄ and 32° 00΄ ΄North, and longitudes 29° 30΄
and 33° 00΄ East. Alexandria is in the west to Port Said and the outlet of the Suez
Canal is in the east. The East, West, and the South boundaries are set upon the base of
the quaternary aquifer where the zero contours lies. The coast line is about 275 km
long, the area that the reservoir serves is about 22,000 km2.
Figure 6: Nile Delta Topography map.
Error! Reference source not found. indicates the topography map of the Nile
delta, as it shows that land slope is decreasing toward the North, becoming less than
the mean sea level. The Nile Delta elevation ranges between 17m above the sea level
at the South to less than one meter at the North boundary (Farid 1985).
23
3.5.3 Hydro-geological Properties
The Nile Delta aquifer system is so huge that it covers the entire Nile delta region.
The hydro-geological strata are related to the Quaternary period. Aquifers pertaining to
the Quaternary period consist of a top clay layer that overlies a thick layer of coarse and
gravel and sand. The thickness of these strata increases northward, as it ranges between
about 150 m at El-Kanater El-Khairiya in the south and more than 500 m near Tanta
increasing northward till it reaches more than 1200 m near the coast. Also, the aquifer
decreases in thickness towards the southeastern and western fringes of the Nile Delta
(RIGW, 1980). Error! Reference source not found. shows latitudinal and the
longitudinal hydrological cross sections.
Figure 7: Hydro-geological cross section in the Nile Delta area (After RIGW 1992).
24
Figure 8: Clay Layer Thickness (Upper Aquifer) Map (Saleh; 2010).
Error! Reference source not found. shows that clay layers and/or pockets are
encountered within the main aquifer to several connected and disconnected smaller
aquifers. The confining layer consists of two distinct layers: a clay layer at the top,
varying in thickness from about 5 m at Cairo to about 45 m along the Mediterranean
Coast, and a bottom layer that consists mainly of consolidated mixtures of sand and
gravel.
Figure 9: Quaternary Aquifer (Lower Aquifer) Map (RIGW, 1992).
Error! Reference source not found. The aquifer is bounded by the

Mediterranean Sea from the north, Suez Canal from the East and El-Manawat at south
of Cairo. The aquifer demises and seems to be isolated from the aquifer of Upper
25
Egypt by an Aquiclude approaching the clay cap near Cairo at El-Manawat (Farid,
1985).
The thickness of the aquifer is believed to be 0 at the west, east and south
increasing towards the north to reach 1200 meters below the mean sea level at the
shore. The lines in the above figure indicate the varying contour from 0 to 1200.
Figure 10: The Nile delta aquifer and a cross section in middle delta (Sherif 2001).
The bulk of the Nile Delta aquifer consists of deltaic deposits 300-400 m thick
in average (Figure 10). In the Delta area, as well as its fringes, the strata of
hydrological importance belong essentially to the Quaternary and to the Tertiary. Of
these strata, the deltaic deposits (200-500 m thick) that belong to the Pleistocene
constitute the bulk of the main aquifer. These are dominated by unconsolidated coarse
sands and gravel with occasional clay lenses. The top boundary of the deltaic
deposits, which acts as a cap for the aquifer, is composed of semi-pervious clay and
silt layers. The clay cap is intermeshing with the aquifer near the shore (Shata and
Hefny 1995).
26
Figure 11: Initial Piezometric Head Map (RIGW, 1992).
Error! Reference source not found. shows the groundwater head levels
indicated as piezometric heads. The records of the Nile delta piezometric heads
where obtained from the observation wells by the Research Institute for the
Groundwater (RIGW), Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation (MWRI), and the
data collected from numerous wells were represented in a groundwater level map in
1992.
The hydraulic gradient of groundwater flow in the delta increases from about 12
cm/km in the North to more than 50 cm/km near the river and canals. The
Piezometric head at the land boundary is about 16.0 m above sea level, reaching 1.0 m
at sea boundary. At the Western boundary, the piezometric head reaches 20 m.
3.5.4 Aquifer Hydraulic properties

The Nile Delta aquifer is considered to be one of the largest reservoirs in the
world. It contains at least 400x109 m3/year. The fresh groundwater thickness
increases with time, most probably due to increasing surface water diversions
(especially in Western Delta and Eastern Delta regions) (Gaame, 2000).
As the domain is divided into three layers, the values of the horizontal hydraulic
conductivity, and the values of the vertical anisotropy are determined from the
calibration process of the model. Thus the hydraulic conductivity values, and the
aquifer recharging are considered as the model parameters, and the piezometric heads
that were interpolated from the water table contour map were considered as the
calibration targets.
Hydraulic conductivity is one of the main parameters that govern the flow of
groundwater, the rate of contaminant migration, and the flow velocity. Table 1 shows
the results of pumping tests carried out by different researchers and institutes. The
results indicate that the hydraulic conductivity for the Nile delta aquifer for the
Middle Delta ranges from 70 to 130 m/day. For the Western and the Eastern Delta, it
was found that the range is between 35 to 100 m/day (RIGW, 1992). The porosity of
the quaternary aquifer varies between 25% and 40%. The slope of the aquifer at its
base is about 4 m/km (Farid, 1980).
27
Table 2: the hydraulic properties of the quaternary aquifer system in the Nile Delta from
(Fadlelmawla and Dawoud, 2006)
Study Hydraulic conductivity (m/day) Effective porosity (%)
RIGW (1992) 75
UNDP (1981) 55 – 103
Farid (1980) 112 32-35
Zaghloul (1958) 119 20-28
Shahien (1987) 50 23-25
Leaven(1991) 150
Figure 12: Initial condition for the salinity distribution
Error! Reference source not found. shows the initial condition for the salinity
distribution, where the salinity of the cell in contact with the shore was set to be
35000 ppm, as the salinity of the sea. The whole domain salinity was set to be 1000
ppm (assuming it is freshwater). This is not the current condition for the salinity
distribution in the Nile delta, but it is the initial condition for the model to start with to
achieve the current condition of the salinity distribution in the Nile delta.
28
3.5.5 The recharge and extractions in the Nile Delta
The amount of precipitation will directly impact groundwater recharge. This
means that the more the precipitation the more the water recharges the aquifer. Also
more precipitation can lead to high groundwater levels and groundwater flooding. An
increased fluctuation in groundwater levels can affect chemical and mechanical soil
characteristics, while less precipitation might lead to low groundwater levels and
water shortage, and contribute to droughts. One other factor that affects the recharge
is the runoff, as runoff reduces the amount of precipitation available for infiltration to
ground to recharge the aquifer (assuming the soil conditions and evapotranspiration
are constant) (EPSON report, 2011).
The Nile delta aquifer system is recharged essentially through the deep
percolation of subsurface drainage water and seepage from canals. The average rate of
recharge is about 0.8 mm/day in the old lands, and ranges from 1 to 2.5 mm/day in the
areas irrigated with surface water. Recharge from rainfall is essentially confined to the
Mediterranean coastal aquifers overlying the Nile aquifer system. In these areas,
winter rainfall in excess of 100 mm/day recharges the thin lens of fresh groundwater
overlying the brackish groundwater. Within the Nile aquifer system in the northern
part of the delta, rainfall is generally intercepted by the subsurface land drainage
system and thus it does not contribute to the recharge of the aquifer (Water report,
1997).
Extraction of groundwater takes place through various means: land drainage,

evaporation and evapotranspiration, and through abstraction. Artificial land drainage
networks in the northern part of the delta lower the groundwater table, resulting in an
upward direction of groundwater leakage, ranging from 0.2 to 0.9 mm/day,
intercepted by the drainage system. Natural discharge of groundwater by evaporation
and evapotranspiration occurs in the low-lying areas with shallow groundwater tables.
The annual abstraction of groundwater from the Nile delta region amounts to about
3*109 m3 for both irrigation and drinking water supply (Water report, 1997).
29
Figure 13 displays the Nile river annual precipitation along the coast that varies
between 130 and 170 millimeters annually and decreases gradually to the South.
Figure 13: Rates of groundwater extraction, the Land use and rainfall distribution map,
(RIGW1992)
Figure 14: The areal distribution of drainage surplus in the Nile Delta region (mm/day)
(Saleh 2010)
3.5.6 Building the Conceptual Model

When the model is developed, The grid is generated, and then the conceptual
model will be converted to the grid model and all the cell-by-cell requirement will be
performed automatically by the model, then everything will be ready for the
30
numerical model to be built as all the needed data, which is used in formulating the
numerical model is collected by the model.
3.5.7 Building the Numerical model

The Numerical model is used to represent the studied problem in a way similar
to reality. Most groundwater models in use today are deterministic mathematical
models. Deterministic models are based on conservation of mass, momentum, and
energy and describe cause and effect relations. The underlying assumption is that
given a high degree of understanding of the processes by which stresses on a system
produce subsequent responses in that system, the system's response to any set of
stresses can be predetermined, even if the magnitude of new stresses falls outside of
the range of historically observed stresses.
Saltwater intrusion can be conducted using different simulation packages, for

instance GMS package. Next chapter discusses the formulation of the numerical
model of saltwater intrusion using the GMS package modeling, which is the widely
used. This package can solve the sea water intrusion in 3D, and it contains the
MODFLOW, MT3D and the SEAWAT sub-models.
3.5.8 Model Calibration and Verification
31
Figure 15: calibration and verification
As shown in Error! Reference source not found., the calibration method was carried
out sequentially by adjusting the model parameters until the computed values
approximately reach the observed values. In this process, the boundary conditions and
the hydraulic properties of the aquifer are modified so that the simulated values of
groundwater heads approximately match the observed values, and this is the
calibration target. The parameters used for the calibration process are the three values
for the hydraulic conductivity, the clay layer and the quaternary ( Pleistocene and
Holocene) layers, and the fourth calibration parameter is the net recharge. Parameter
modification is done by trial and error.
The process followed in the GMS to achieve the calibration includes a suite of tools
that can assist in the calibration process. A parameter estimation program called PEST
(Doherty, 1994) applies a method used in the MODFLOW model to calibrate the flow
model. PEST is based on implementing the nonlinear least squares regression method
to estimate the model parameters, which is done by minimizing the sum of weighed
square residuals.
A group of about thirty nine points were chosen to represent the observation
data, the contour heads for these chosen points were known. The calibration method
took place as follows. Firstly, the values for the known head contour were provided
for the model, the flow model runs several times, and the model output is displayed
each time. Secondly, the GMS model interpolates the output solution and compares
with the observations points provided previously, and then the residual errors were
calculated. Thirdly, the sum of the weighed squared residuals, with the weights
assigned based on the reliability and quality of each observation point is calculated
and compared with the previous iteration. Finally, this process is repeated till reaching
the minimum sum of squared residuals. Figures 16 and 17 show the chosen points
after calibration, with the magnitude of the residual error bar next to each point, and a
32
plot for the comparison between the computed and observed heads after the
calibration process.
Figure 16: Nile Delta calibrated Domain, with the magnitude of the residual error bar next to
each point
Figure 17: Calibration output – head contour
33
3.5.9 Model Verification and Validation
Verification and validation are two processes done to quantify and build the
confidence of numerical models. Verification is the process of determining that a
model implementation accurately represents the conceptual description of the model
and also the solution to the model. Validation, on the other hand, is the process of
determining the degree to which a model is an accurate representation of the real
world from the perspective of the intended uses of the model (AIAA, 1998).
Verification and validation are processes that manage to manipulate the data
entered to the model so that it could be correct or accurate for a specific scenario.
Thus, neither process can prove that a model is correct and accurate for all
applications of the model, but rather it can provide that a model is sufficiently
accurate in a certain scenario. Therefore, the validation and verification processes are
completed when sufficiency of the model is reached.
Verification is concerned with identifying and removing errors in the model by

comparing numerical solutions with the analytical benchmarks solutions, as
verifications works on the mathematics of the model. But on the other hand we find
that validation is the process that works on quantifying the accuracy of the model, by
comparing numerical solutions to observed data, as the validations works on the
physics of the model with observed data ( Roach,1998).
Therefore the verification must be done before the validation, because

mathematical errors can be eliminated before starting the comparison between the
observed data and the model solutions. Error! Reference source not found. shows a
simplified view of the two processes of verification and validation.
34
Figure 18: Simplified view of the model verification and validation process
(Schlesinger 1979)
The model verification process starts using a second group of observed points
that have not been used in calibrating the model. The calibrated model output is used
to calculate the root mean squared error, and the relation between the observed points
and the computed values is evaluated. Verification assesses the ability of the model to
simulate aquifer behavior before using it in a predictive manner.
Figure 19: Verification results, comparison between the computed and observed heads after
calibration process
35
CHAPTER 4
GROUNDWATER MODELING DEVELOPMENT
4.1 Introduction
This chapter discusses the groundwater flow modeling process for the Nile
Delta aquifer by using MODFLOW to simulate the groundwater flow and MT3D to
simulate solute transport (salinity), and SEAWAT model that combines the previous
two models to solve the density driven flow model.
Modeling saltwater intrusion can be done using different types of simulation

codes, for instance using the models in the GMS package, as it includes the SEAWAT
as a widely used model that is used to simulate three-dimensional variable density
groundwater flow and solute transport. SEAWAT model develops this by combining
two codes together. The first code is the MODFLOW code that represents the effects
of rivers, drains, streams, wells, and recharge. The second code is the MT3D code that
represents the effect of the varying salinity concentrations.
4.2 Development of the Flow and Transport Numerical Models

Model development is a process in which hydrological, geological, and salinity
data are simulated mathematically using certain codes, such as the MODFLOW,
MT3D and SEAWAT, where the simulation will take place by using the finite
difference method. The MODFLOW outputs will usually be groundwater heads and
water budget, while the MT3D transport model simulation output will be the
groundwater salinity. Finally SEAWAT will combine MODFLOW and MT3D to
36
solve them as one, time dependent, variable density flow and transport as a three
dimensions model.
4.3 Model simulation layers

In order to use MODFLOW, several parameters must be set for each cell in the
finite difference grid, such as the initial conditions and the hydraulic properties. The
Nile Delta aquifer domain was divided into three hydrological group layers in the
vertical direction to represent the different lithological structures to simulate the two
aquifers, as the first layer represents the Holocene clay, the second layer represent a
mix between the Holocene and the Quaternary layer and the third layer represents the
Quaternary aquifer as summarized in Table .
Table 3: The Nile Delta Domain divided into three hydrological groups layers
Parameter Layer 1 Layer 2 Layer 3
Hydraulic Conductivity
0.015 8.925 120
(m/day)
Vertical Anisotropy 1 1 1
Horizontal Anisotropy 1 1 1
Specific Storage 0.001 0.001 0.001
Specific Yield 0.2 0.2 0.2
Porosity 0.3 0.3 0.3
Longitudinal
200 200 200
Dispersivity (m)
Numerical Layers 1 1 9
The model first layer is the Holocene clay layer, which acts as a semi-confining
layer and has an average thickness of 25m. The Holocene thickness increases towards
the north coast. This layer consists of silty and sandy clay, which vanishes towards the
eastern and western sides of the Nile Delta domain and from the calibration process
the hydraulic conductivity of this layer was found to be 0.0015 m/day.
The model second layer consists of a mix between the Holocene layer and the
Quaternary aquifer this layer consists of the Pleistocene graded sand and gravel,
which changes to fine and clay in the north of the domain. This layer acts as a semi-
confined layer and its thickness is about 50 m.
37
The third layer is the Moghra aquifer sediments. The thickness of these layers
varies from zero at the South of the domain and increases towards the North to reach
almost 1200 m. This layer consists of lower Miocene sand and gravel. The aquifer is a
confined aquifer, or assumed to be totally confined aquifer, as there are Oligocene
rocks or basalts underlying the Moghra aquifer (Saleh, 2009).
SEAWAT provides an explicit solution method and an iterative Picard method

for coupling the flow and solute transport equations. In the explicit method, solute
concentrations from the previous transport time step are used to update the fluid
densities used in the flow equation for the current time step. Advective fluxes from
the flow solution are then used in the solution of the transport equation. With this
iterative coupling method, solutions to the flow and transport equations are repeated
within each time step until the largest change in fluid density at a single cell for
consecutive iterations is less than a user specified value (provided convergence was
achieved in the solutions for both head and concentration). The time discretization in
SEAWAT is a combination of the approaches used by MODFLOW and MT3DMS.
Simulations are divided into stress periods and transport time steps. The concept
of a MODFLOW time step (called a flow time step) is also retained in SEAWAT but
only for the purpose of saving model output. The lengths of transport time steps are
determined by stability criteria but may be specified by the user if the implicit finite
difference option is used to solve the solute-transport equation. A limitation of the
current version of SEAWAT is that flow and transport are solved for each transport
time step. (Christian D., etal, 2006). Error! Reference source not found. shows how
the iteration cycles are done for each cell till stability is reached.
38
Figure 20: This iteration cycle is done for each cell till stability is reached
4.4 Governing Equations for Flow and Transport

General form of the continuity equation based on mass conservation for
variable-density conditions is:
+ ,-
+
. /. 1 2 ρ4 5
4 (1)
Where n is porosity, 1 is fluid density [ML-1], t is time [T], q is specific

discharge [LT-1], and q’s is a source or sink [T-1] of fluid with density qs. The general
form of Darcy’s law for variable-density conditions is (Bear 1979):
8
6 2 7 9 /ρ . ρg/z (2)
Where K is the permeability tensor [L2], µ is dynamic viscosity [ML-1T-1], p is

pressure [ML-1T-2], g is gravity [LT-2], and z is the upward coordinate direction
aligned with gravity. The Oberbeck-Boussinesq approximation is sometimes used to
simplify Equation 1 by conserving volume as opposed to mass (e.g., Holzbecher
1998; Kolditz et al. 1998; Nield and Bejan 1999). Although this approximation
39
eliminates the density terms in Equation 1, the density term in Equation 2 (second
term within the parentheses) can still be included to account for buoyancy effects
(e.g., Senger and Fogg 1990; Holzbecher 1998; Oude Essink 1998). For many
problems with weak density variations, such as those encountered in most shallow
coastal aquifers, the Oberbeck-Boussinesq approximation is valid, but Kolditz et al.
(1998) do not recommend using this approximation for problems involving large
density variations.
Many existing codes used for density-dependent ground water simulation

formulate the equations in terms of pressure. To facilitate the use of MODFLOW
routines to solve for flow, the equations presented here are formulated in terms of the
head of a reference fluid. This reference fluid is commonly taken to be fresh water
(denoted with a subscript f ). Using fresh water as the reference fluid, Lusczynski
(1961) defined the equivalent fresh water head, hf [L], as:
<
ℎ$ 2 - . ? 3
=>

Oberlander (1989) and Bachu (1995) described the use of equivalent fresh water
head for deep aquifer systems, and Juster (1995) described the use of pressure,
equivalent fresh water head, reduced pressure, and environmental head for analysis of
variable-density ground water flow systems. Any one of these measures can be used
in studies of variable-density ground water flow, provided the associated governing
equations correctly account for density differences. The equivalent fresh water head
formulation, however, leads to a system of equations that can be solved relatively
easily using the existing MODFLOW structure.
By solving Equation 3 for p and introducing the fresh water hydraulic

A-= >
conductivity tensor as !$ 2 [LT-1] (Senger and Fogg 1990), Equation 2 may
9=
be rewritten as:
9= -B-=
2 7!$ 9
/ℎ$ . -=
/? (4)
The form of Equation 4 indicates that horizontal flow components can be

evaluated directly from the gradient in fresh water head under variable-density
40
conditions. For flow with a vertical component, the second term within the
parentheses of Equation 4, referred to as a buoyancy term (Holzbecher 1998; Oude
Essink 1998) or relative density difference term (Guo and Langevin 2002), can be
similar in magnitude to the fresh water head gradient term, and must be considered.
Dynamic viscosity is a weak function of solute concentration, typically varying by
~8% over the range between fresh water and sea water, and some codes, including
9=
SEAWAT and MOCDENS3D, neglect viscosity differences by approximating 9
to
be 1. Holzbecher (1998) argues that for practical applications, local variations in

viscosity are often much less than the unknown local variations in permeability, and
thus the effects of variable viscosity are important only in rare cases.
The final form of the flow equation solved by SEAWAT is obtained by

substituting Equation 4 into Equation 1 and expanding the time derivative into a
familiar storage term and a term that accounts for the volumetric expansion due to
solute concentration changes (Guo and Langevin 2002):
-B-= +F= +- +H
/. C1!$ /ℎ$ . /? D 2 ρE4$ .G 7 14 ′4 (5)
-= + +H +
Where Ssf is the fresh water specific storage [L-1] defined as the volume of
water released from storage per unit volume per unit decline of fresh water head, and
C is the concentration of solute mass per unit volume of fluid [ML-3]. For a constant-
density system, Equation 5 reduces to the flow equation solved by MODFLOW. The
MT3DMS computer program is used in SEAWAT to solve the following general
form of the solute transport equation (Zheng and Wang 1999):
+ ,H
2 /. G . /∁ 7 /. ∁ 7 ′4 ∁4 (6)
+J
Where D is the hydrodynamic dispersion coefficient tensor [L2T-1] and Cs is the

source or sink concentration [ML-3]. Concentrations resulting from the solution of
Equation 6 are used by an equation of state to calculate fluid density. Although
Equation 6 is presented here for only a single chemical species, MT3DMS is capable
of simulating transport for multiple dissolved species. Thus, in addition to simulating
the species used in the equation of state to calculate fluid density, SEAWAT can also
simulate the simultaneous transport of other species, such as contaminants.
41
For conditions with large spatial density gradients, which may be encountered
in studies of dense connate brines, the /∁ term in Equation 6 should be formulated as
1/ L∁M1N (Fried 1975; de Marsily 1986; Zheng and Bennett 2002). To further
complicate the matter, laboratory column experiments involving high-concentration

brines have shown that a nonlinear dispersion law is required to describe brine
transport (Hassanizadeh and Leijnse 1995; Schotting et al. 1999)., Zheng and Bennett
(2002) suggest that Equation 6 represents a suitable approximation. Equations 5 and 6
are coupled in variable-density ground water systems. Fluid density is a function of
solute concentration, transport is dependent on the flow field, and the storage term in
the transient flow equation incorporates changes in concentration. The relation
between fluid density and solute concentration is represented by an equation of state,
which can be approximated with the following linearized form developed by Baxter
and Wallace (1916):
+-
1 2 1$ . ∁ (7)
+∁
The present equation of state does not include the dependence of fluid density
on temperature or pressure, and thus Equation 7 is valid for isothermal systems with
an incompressible fluid. For deep aquifer systems and for aquifers with large
temperature variations, an equation of state based on pressure, temperature, and solute
concentration is required. Diersch and Kolditz (2002) provide a summary of more
rigorous forms of the equations of state.
4.5 Variable-Density Flow Approximation

MODFLOW is based on the formulation of a generalized block-centered finite-
difference approximation that includes flexibility for adding various types of sources
and sinks. In SEAWAT, the generalized formulation was modified to include the
effects of a three-dimensional density field calculated from solute concentrations. The
full form of the variable-density finite-difference approximation is presented in Guo
and Langevin (2002). Guo and Bennett (1998a, 1998b) and Oude Essink (1998)
present the finite-difference equation based on the Oberbeck-Boussinesq
approximation. The equations solved by SEAWAT are different from the Oberbeck-
Boussinesq form in that the full-continuity equation is used, and thus, each flux term
42
is multiplied by fluid density in order to conserve fluid mass instead of fluid volume.
The finite-difference equation also includes the solutal volumetric expansion term,
which is commonly eliminated as part of the Oberbeck-Boussinesq approximation.
MODFLOW contains approximations for water table conditions, downward

leakage to a partially saturated layer, and the conversion between unconfined and
confined conditions. To ensure that these approximations function under variable-
density conditions, modifications were required to ensure accurate representation of
the intended approximation. For example, heads in terms of the native aquifer water,
as opposed to equivalent fresh water heads, are used in the evapotranspiration
algorithm and in the calculation of saturated thicknesses for flow conductance.
Descriptions of the variable-density approximations for these special conditions and
for many of the MODFLOW boundary packages are described in Guo and Langevin
(2002) and Langevin et al. (2003).
4.6 Coupling Procedure

SEAWAT provides an explicit solution method and an iterative Picard method
for coupling the flow and solute- transport equations. In the explicit method, solute
concentrations from the previous transport time step are used to update the fluid
densities used in the flow equation for the current time step. Advective fluxes from
the flow solution are then used in the solution of the transport equation. With this
iterative coupling method, solutions to the flow and transport equations are repeated
within each time step until the largest change in fluid density at a single cell for
consecutive iterations is less than a user specified value (provided convergence was
achieved in the solutions for both head and concentration). The time discretization in
SEAWAT is a combination of the approaches used by MODFLOW and MT3DMS.
Simulations are divided into stress periods and transport time steps. The concept of a
MODFLOW time step (called a flow time step) is also retained in SEAWAT but only
for the purpose of saving model output. The lengths of transport time steps are
determined by stability criteria but may be specified by the user if the implicit finite
difference option is used to solve the solute-transport equation. A limitation of the
current version of SEAWAT is that flow and transport are solved for each transport
time step.
43
4.7 Program Structure
The first two versions of SEAWAT (Guo and Bennett 1998a, 1998b; Guo and
Langevin 2002) were developed by incorporating calls to MT3D or MT3DMS
routines directly into the main program of MODFLOW-88 (McDonald and Harbaugh
1988). With the release of MODFLOW-2000, Harbaugh et al. (2000) introduced the
concept of a process, which is a set of routines that solve an equation. For example,
the constant-density ground water flow equation is solved using the Ground Water
Flow (GWF) Process. The process concept was introduced to support other
capabilities that require solving an equation, such as solute transport, sensitivity
analysis, and parameter estimation (McDonald and Harbaugh 2003). One purpose for
developing SEAWAT-2000 (Langevin et al. 2003) was to restructure the code using
the process concept. SEAWAT-2000 contains the original GWF Process, which
solves the constant-density flow equation and additionally contains the Variable-
Density Flow (VDF) Process that solves Equation 5. In SEAWAT- 2000, solute
transport is solved using the Integrated MT3DMS Transport (IMT) Process. An
advantage for incorporating this feature in SEAWAT-2000 is that processes can be
combined in different ways as needed. For example, the IMT Process can be used
with either the GWF or the VDF Processes. Also, the VDF Process can be used
without the IMT Process, which allows for fast variable-density simulations, but only
if it can be assumed that fluid density remains constant during the simulation. This
type of variable-density simulation would be similar to those represented by Weiss
(1982), Maas and Emke (1988), and Olsthoorn (1996). Langevin et al. (2003) provide
a description of the processes and their compatibility in SEAWAT-2000.
One major objective in the development of SEAWAT and SEAWAT-2000 was

to maintain the original structure of MODFLOW and MT3DMS and to minimize
changes to the input and output files. This allows for new or updated versions of
MODFLOW and MT3DMS to be incorporated with only modest effort. This design
element is also beneficial for pre- and post-processing because SEAWAT reads and
writes standard MODFLOW and MT3DMS input and output files. SEAWAT-2000,
however, requires a simple additional input file that contains coefficients for the
equation of state and several other variables specific to the VDF Process.
44
CHAPTER 5
ANALYSIS AND RESULTS
Having solved the combined flow and transport problem using SEAWAT, and
after the calibration and verification processes are completed, the model is ready to be
used as a predictive tool. Different scenarios for the sea level rise are applied in order
to assess the effect of the sea level rise on the saltwater intrusion in the Nile delta
aquifer. This chapter presents the results and analysis of these scenarios as obtained
by the model. Specifically, this chapter includes:
1- Several cross sections are studied in the longitudinal and lateral directions to
show the effect of SLR and to compare the current 3D model output to 2D
model output from a previous study; different amounts of sea level rise are
considered (0.2, 0.5, and 1.0) m and results are obtained for 50 and 100 years
into the future.
2- A saltwater – freshwater interface is determined showing the effect of the
different scenarios after 50 and 100 years.
3- Mitigations measures are also studied to evaluate which ones can be viable
options for reducing the rate of climate-driven seawater intrusion increase.
Figure3, and Figure 4 compares the results of the current 3D model (on the
right) to the results of the 2D model of Sherif and Al-Rashed (1999). It can be seen
from the figure that the equiconcentration line equivalent to 1000 ppm (i.e.,
freshwater) has reached a distance of 51.5 km from the shoreline in the 3D model
where the same equiconcentration line reached a distance of 108 km in the 2D model.
45
This implies much more inland intrusion of seawater occurring in the 2D model than
in the 3D one. This can be expected as the 3D model allows salt dispersion in the
longitudinal as well as lateral directions thereby reducing the concentration of the
saltwater front and decreasing its advancement in the longitudinal (i.e, North-South)
direction. In other words, the 2D model studied a vertical south-north slice in which
the lateral (east-west) dispersivity is ignored leading to more movement of the
saltwater-freshwater interface in the longitudinal direction.
The difference between the 2D and the 3D models could also be partly
attributed to the fact that the 2D study (Sherif and Al-Rashed, 1999) relied on data
and maps obtained prior to 1999 whereas the current model relied on newly compiled
data and maps about the Nile Delta and its aquifer. Previous studies showed that the
saltwater will be almost at Tanta, which indicates that the 3D model is representing
field conditions more reliably than the 2D model.
Figure 4: Model Output Equiconcentration line 1.0

Figure3: (Sherif and Al-Rashed, 1999) Equiconcentration
intruded the aquifer to a distance of about 51.5km
line 1.0 intruded the aquifer to a distance of about 108.0km
Figure 5 shows a vertical cross section taken in the Nile delta to address the
current condition (before sea level rise). The figure shows a 3D view of how the cross
section is taken in the model domain. The figure indicates that the salt-fresh interface
intruded about 51.5 km in the Nile Delta aquifer at the location of the shown cross
section. The results shown in this figure are considered the base case (or current
conditions) to which the impacts of sea level rise will be compared.
Several cross sections are studied in longitudinal and lateral directions to show
the effect of SLR. Three scenarios are considered for the sea level rise with the
46
amount of rise differing in each scenario. The sea level rise is considered 0.2 m in the
first scenario, 0.5 m in the second scenario, and 1.0 m in the third scenario. The model
is run under these scenarios for 100 years and results are presented for 50 and 100
years into the future.
Figure 5: Vertical cross section in the current condition scenario running in the longitudinal
direction (north-south)
Figure 6 shows the effect of the first scenario of climate change leading to a 0.2
m sea level rise after 50 years from reaching the new sea level. The figure indicate
that the intrusion of salt – fresh interface has increased from 51.5 km (for current
conditions) to 52.5 km, implying that a 20 cm sea level rise would advance the
saltwater 1 km inland after 50 years from having that sea level rise amount.
47
Figure 6: vertical north-south cross section f or the 0.2 m SLR scenario for 50 years
Figure 7 shows the effect of the 0.2 m sea level rise scenario on the saltwater
intrusion after 100 years. The figure shows that the salt water intruded inland a
distance of 53.5 km indicating that the effect of this sea level rise scenario over 100
years will cause the salinity to move further inland 2 km compared to the current
condition.
Figure 7: Vertical north-south cross section for the 0.2 m SLR scenario for 100 years
48
Figure 8 shows the effect of the second scenario of 0.5 m sea level rise after 50
years. Investigating the results in this figure reveals that the saltwater body advances
in land with the 1000 ppm equiconcentration line reaching 54 km from the shoreline.
Thus is sea level rises 50 cm, the saltwater – freshwater interface will move further
inland a distance of about 2.5 km after 50 years from reaching the new sea level.
Comparing this scenario to the first scenario, it seems that the 30 cm increase in the
sea level rise leads to an additional 1.5 km movement of the interface inland. Thus
one could say that each 10 cm rise in the sea level would advance the interface about
500 m in a 50-year time frame.
Figure 8: Vertical cross section for the 0.5m SLR scenario for 50yrs
49
Figure 9 shows the effect of the 0.5 m sea level rise scenario on the saltwater –
freshwater interface after 100 years. The figure shows that the interface intruded
inland a distance of 55.5 km, which is 4 km longer than the current conditions of the
interface. Compared to the first scenario results after 100 years, this scenario leads to
doubling the distance advanced by the saltwater body.
Figure 9: Vertical cross section for the 0.5m SLR scenario for 100yrs
Figure 10 shows the effect of 1.0 m sea level rise scenario (third scenario) on
the saltwater intrusion pattern after 50 years. The results indicate that the interface
intruded inland for a distance of about 56 km (4.5 km longer than current conditions).
Compared to the first two scenarios, this scenario has a more significant effect on the
movement of the saltwater – freshwater interface.
Figure 10: vertical cross section for the 1.0m SLR scenario for 50yrs
Figure 11 shows the effect of the third scenario on the saltwater intrusion
pattern after 100 years. It is found that saltwater – freshwater interface has intruded
inland a distance of 57.5 km from the shoreline. This means that the effect of the sea
50
level rise by 1.0 m over 100 years will cause the salinity to move further inland 6 km
beyond the current condition of the interface.
Figure 11: vertical north-south cross section for the 1.0 m SLR scenario for 100 years
Figure 12 shows a lateral cross section (east-west cross section) in the Nile delta
showing the salinity distribution under current conditions before adding any sea level
rise. Higher salinity is found toward the edges of the delta (eastern and western
edges). In the middle zone, salinity is less than the edges. This is because the edges of
the shown cross section are much closer to the shoreline (thereby higher salinity) than
the middle portion of the cross section.
Figure 12: Lateral cross section in the current condition scenario
Error! Reference source not found. and Figure 13 show the effect of the 0.2
m sea level rise scenario after 50 and 100 years, respectively. The figures indicate that
the salinity is almost 35,000 ppm in the west and east direction because they are very
51
close to the shore. The middle part of the figure has a salinity of almost 15,000 ppm.
Again, the distance to the shoreline is the main determinant of whether the aquifer
zone has high or low salinity.
Figure 13: Lateral cross section for the 0.2m SLR scenario for 50yrs
Figure 12: Lateral cross section for the 0.2m SLR scenario for 100yrs
Figure 15 and Figure 15 display the effect of the 0.5 m sea level rise after 50 and 100
years, respectively. Compared to the previous two figures, Figure 14 and Figure 15
show that the zones with high salinity increase in size and the zones with low salinity
decrease in size implying more seawater intrusion as a result of the 0.5 m sea level
rise.
52
Figure 14: Lateral cross section for the 0.5m SLR scenario for 50 years
Figure 15: Lateral cross section for the 0.5m SLR scenario for 100 years
Figure 16 and Figure 17 shows the effect of the 1.0 m sea level rise scenario
after 50 and 100 years, respectively. The figures show how the salinity is increasing
towards inland due to the effect from the sea level rise. Most of the cross section
salinity is above 10,000 ppm indicating that the land is no more suitable for
agriculture.
Figure 16: Lateral cross section for the 1.0 m SLR scenario for 50 years
53
Figure 17: Lateral cross section for the 1.0 m SLR scenario for 100 years
Figure 18 shows the total distance from the shore line till the fresh water
interface (1000 ppm) for the current conditions and the three sea levels rise scenarios
considered here. The distance is plotted against the time after the occurrence of the
SLR with the simulation time extending to 500 years. The figure shows that the rate
of advancement of the seawater – freshwater interface is fast during the first 200 years
then it slows down for the remaining years. After 500 years, the 0.2 m SLR scenario
causes the interface to advance in land a distance of 6.5 km (compared to current
conditions. For the 0.5 m scenario, the distance advanced by the interface as a result
of SLR is about 8.75 km, whereas it becomes 11.25 km for the 1.0 m SLR scenario.
Figure 18: The distance from the shoreline to the saltwater – freshwater showing the effect of the
scenarios on the long run
54
Figure 18 shows the distance of the saltwater – freshwater interface for all
scenarios for 50 and 100 years. The distance increases with the amount of sea level
rise. For the 100-year result the rate of increase is high at 0.2 and 0.5 m SLR then it
slows down for larger amounts of SLR. Table 4 summarizes the results for the three
scenarios at 50 and 100 years. The distance advanced by the saltwater – freshwater
interface ranges from 1 to 6 km in the cases shown in the table. Given the distance to
the interface under current conditions, the SLR scenarios considered would increase
this distance somewhere between 2% and 12%.
Figure 19: The distance from the shoreline to the saltwater – freshwater interface for all SLR
scenarios for 50 and 100 years
Table 2: Distance traveled by the salt/fresh interface from the shoreline
Distance Distance Migration for the

Migration for the salt/fresh
traveled by the traveled by the salt/fresh interface
interface relative to the
Scenario salt /fresh salt /fresh relative to the
current condition after 100
interface after interface after current condition
years in km
50 years in km 100 years in km after 50 years in km
Current
51.5 0 0
Condition
0.2 m 52.5 53.5 1 2
0.5 m 54 55.5 2.5 4
1.0 m 56 57.5 4.5 6
55
Figure 20 shows the average width of the transition zone for each SLR
scenario. Here, the transition zone is defined by the zone with salinity varying
between 1,000 ppm and 35,000 ppm. Outside this zone there is either freshwater with
salinity below 1,000 ppm or saltwater with seawater salinity. The figure indicates the
width of the transition zone does not change with the amount of SLR. This is because
the increase in sea water level pushes both interfaces of the transition zone inland with
more or less the same advancing distance leading to the same transition zone width.
The transition zones appears to grow with time where in 50 years the width of the
transition zone will be about 21 km, in 100 years it will be about 22 km and in 500
years the average width of the transition zone will be about 24 km.
Figure 20: Width of the transition zone in the Nile Delta after 50, 100 and 500 years
An important indicator for assessing the effect of climate change exemplified by

SLR on the groundwater resources in the Nile Delta aquifer is the amount of
freshwater volume that gets lost (contaminated or becomes more saline). Figure 21
shows the percentage loss of freshwater in the three scenarios of SLR (0.2 m, 0.5 m,
and 1.0 m). The percentage loss is obtained by assessing the freshwater volume at the
current conditions (volume of water in the aquifer or model domain with salinity
below 1,000 ppm). Then under each SLR scenario the volume of freshwater in the
aquifer is obtained and compared to the current condition volume to compute the
percentage loss of freshwater volume. It can be seen from the figure that the
56
percentage loss ranges from 1.5 to 1.6% for the different SLR amounts at 50 years
after the rise occurs. The loss increases with time and at 100 years, the percentage loss
ranges from 1.5 to 2.1%.Table 3 summarizes the data displayed in Figure 21.
Figure 21: percent of total volume of fresh water lost due to the sea level rise
Table 3: Percentage loss of freshwater volume due to sea level rise

Percent of freshwater Percent of freshwater volume
Scenario
volume loss after 50 years loss after 100 years
0.2 m 1.51 1.53
0.5 m 1.55 1.93
1.0 m 1.58 2.12
The results presented in this chapter indicate that in general the effect of
potential SLR that may result from climate change will probably have a limited
impact on the groundwater resources in the Nile Delta aquifer. The analysis presented
here focused on assessing the impact of the potential SLR on the seawater intrusion
and the quality of groundwater in the Nile Delta aquifer. The other potential impacts
of SLR (e.g., inundation of the coastal zones of the delta) and the subsidence of the
delta are not considered here. These aspects deserve further study and may be
considered as extension to the current work.
57
CHAPTER 6
MITIGATION MEASURES
6.1 General
The results presented in the previous Chapter showed that the effect of sea level
rise on increasing saltwater intrusion into the Nile Delta aquifer is not significant.
However, mitigation measures are still needed to eliminate the negative impacts.
Mitigation measures act to reduce salt water intrusion and the impacted groundwater
volume. Given the insignificant effects predicted by the model, simple mitigation
measures may be sufficient.
The method used for controlling the saltwater intrusion depends on several
factors. For example the geology of the area, the extent of the problem, and the cost of
alternative methods determine which method is most suitable to the studied problem. .
Various means of preventing saltwater from contaminating groundwater sources exist.
The reduction of abstraction rates through reducing pumping rates and using other
water resources (Scholze et al. 2002) is one common approach. Also, relocation of
abstraction wells by moving the wells further inland (Sherif and Al Rashed 2001) can
be an effective measure. Subsurface barriers may be used prevent the inflow of
seawater into the groundwater aquifer (Harne et al. 2006). Natural recharge can be
used to recharge the aquifer with additional fresh surface water (Ru et al. 2001) that
helps pushing the saltwater front towards the sea.
Artificial recharge is another option to increase groundwater levels using

surface spread for unconfined aquifers and recharge wells for confined aquifers. The
sources of water for injection may be surface water, groundwater, treated wastewater
or desalinated water (Papadopoulou et al. 2005). The abstraction of saline water can
also be employed to reduce the volume of saltwater by extracting brackish water from
the aquifer (Sherif and Hamza 2001). The combination of injection of freshwater and
extraction of saline water can reduce the volume of saltwater and increase the volume
of freshwater (Rastogi et al. 2004).
58
Another approach is to implement a system of Abstraction, Desalination and
Recharge (ADR), consisting of three steps;
a) Abstraction of brackish water from the saltwater zone.

b) Desalination of the abstracted brackish water using RO treatment process.
c) Recharge of the treated water into the aquifer.
This method aims to reduce the volume of saltwater and to increase the volume
of fresh water. This method is usually repeated till dynamic equilibrium is reached.
All the pervious methods are used to overcome the problem of the saltwater intrusion
and to limit the propagation of the saltwater – freshwater interface further inland.
6.2 Mitigation Measure Considered

Based on the model results, the sea level rise on the long run does not have a
significant effect on the groundwater resources, and simple mitigation measures such
as increasing recharge from the agricultural zones may help mitigate the problem of
accelerated saltwater intrusion. Different scenarios are considered to see the effect of
recharge and the sea level rise on the Nile Delta. The recharge amount at the coastal
zone is changed incrementally from -20% to +20% compared to the calibrated
recharge values. Each of the resulting 4 cases (-20%, -10%, +10%, and +20%) is
implemented in the model with the three SLR scenarios.
6.3 Mitigation Results

To present the results of the increased recharge mitigation measure, one cell is
selected in the model domain and its salinity is obtained under the different cases
considered. Figure 40 shows the results for the selected cell after 50 years whereas
Figure 41 shows the results for the same cell after 100 years. The two figures indicate
that as the recharge increases the salinity decreases in the different scenarios, and as
the recharge decreases the salinity increases. From the figures it is shown that for the
scenario of 0.2 m SLR, as the recharge decreases by 10% the salinity is almost equal
to the scenario of 0.5 m SLR in case of no recharge which clarifies that the effect of
recharge is more influential on the groundwater resources than the effect of the sea
level rise.
59
22.5
20
17.5
15
Salinity (ppm)
12.5
0.2m SLR
10 0.5m SLR
7.5 1.0m SLR
5
2.5
0
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
Recharge(%)
Figure 22: Mitigation scenario showing the effect of changing the recharge on the salinity for 50
years in one cross section
25
20
Salinity (ppm)
15
0.2m SLR
10 0.5m SLR
1.0m SLR
5
0
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
Recharge(%)
Figure 23: Mitigation scenario showing the effect of changing the recharge on the salinity for 100
years in one cross section
60
CHAPTER 7
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
7.1 Conclusions
Based on the results and analysis carried out in this study, the conclusions that
can be drawn from the results may be summarized in the following points:
• The movement of the seawater-freshwater interface (or transition zone)

will be almost steady after 400 years from the start of the sea level rise
• The interface moves a distance ranging from 6.5- 10 km at steady state
depending on the amount of sea level rise
• The range of expected sea level rise (0.2 – 1.0 m) leads to the migration of
saltwater-freshwater interface for an additional 1.0 – 4.5 km 50 years after
the rise occurs and between 2.0 and 6.0 km 100 years after the rise.
• The maximum percentage loss of fresh groundwater resources is estimated
to be about 2.2%
• The effect of sea level rise on the saltwater intrusion in the Nile Delta
aquifer does not seem to be significant
• The mitigation measures analysis shows that as the recharge increases the
salinity decreases, and vice versa.
• The mitigation results show that 10% decrease in the recharge in the 0.2 m
SLR scenario is approximately equivalent to the 0.5 m SLR scenario in the
50 years curve, which means that the effect of decreasing the recharge is
more critical than the effect of SLR
The SEAWAT program used to simulate the density-driven flow problem is

very difficult to use and achieve stability; care should be taken in using the program
in site specific models.
61
7.2 Recommendations
Based on the results from this study, and as the recharge in the Nile delta is the
key for solving the saltwater intrusion, it is recommended to address the effect
reduced recharge that may result from building dams over the Nile River along the
Nile basin. How such upper Nile basin development projects will affect the
groundwater resources needs to be studied as the incoming water for Egypt will be
less than usual. It is also recommended to consider the SLR effects along with the
inundation of the northern parts of the Nile delta that will accompany the SLR in low-
lying lands.
62
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Effect of Climate Change on Sea Water Intrusion

in the Nile Delta Coastal Aquifer

A Thesis Submitted to the

Faculty of Engineering, Cairo University

A Thesis Submitted to the

Irrigation and Hydraulics Department

Effect of Climate Change on Sea Water Intrusion

A Thesis Submitted to the

Faculty of Engineering, Cairo University

First of all, I am Grateful to The Mighty Allah for establishing me to complete

I wish to express my deepest thanks to my supervisors, Prof. Dr. Ahmed

I would also like to express my thankful recognition to Prof. Dr. Khaled

I cannot forget to thank my colleagues in the Nile forecasting Center, Planning

My very special thanks and sincere gratitude goes to my Husband Mohamed

ZEINA I LOVE YOU

A The area perpendicular to the direction of flow

C The solute concentration in liquid phase

̅ The mean concentration of the contaminant plume

The correlation function

d The local-scale dispersion tensor

The effective diffusion coefficient

Coefficient of longitudinal hydrodynamic dispersion

A second-order tensor called mechanical dispersion

The zero mean fluctuating log conductivity

GE The global error

h1 , h2 Water levels measured at two points

i The hydraulic gradient which is equivalent to (h1-h2)/L

j The particle index

The total number of particles used to simulate the continuous solute

K The hydraulic conductivity of the porous medium

The cell hydraulic conductivity of the i-numbered cell in the fine

Kx, Ky, Kz The hydraulic conductivities in each of the coordinate directions

L The length of flow path between the two points

LE Local error (mean absolute error)

The first moment in the x-direction

m(Xj) The mass associated with that particle

n The effective porosity of the porous medium

Ncy The number of cells in the coarse grid model in y-direction

Nfy The number of cells in the fine grid model in y-direction

NX The number of cells in the coarse grid model in x-direction

Ny The number of cells in the coarse grid model in y-direction

P An exponent known as the power averaging exponent.

The groundwater flux passing through a certain plane in the fine

qω The specific discharge vector at cell ω within the block

The Darcy flux due to advection

Dispersive solute mass flux in direction i

The Darcy flux due to diffusion

R.F. Retardation factor

r The spatial lag

T.E. The transport error

u The position vector that sweeps the inside of the block

The spatial lag

Vx Linear average velocity

, The velocity vector at the old position at time t

v Average linear groundwater velocity

vi The transport velocity in i direction

The old position of the particles

Xj(t) The position of the jth particle at time t

The updated position of the particles

The coordinate in direction i

Z A vector of random numbers

σ2 the log conductivity variance

σ$% The fluctuating log-K variance