Australasian Journal of Water Resources

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Design flood estimation in Western Australia

D Flavell

To cite this article: D Flavell (2012) Design flood estimation in Western Australia, Australasian
Journal of Water Resources, 16:1, 1-20

To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.7158/13241583.2012.11465400

Published online: 16 Nov 2015.

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 1

Design flood estimation in Western Australia*

D Flavell†
David Flavell Pty Ltd, Augusta, Western Australia

ABSTRACT: This paper provides details of flood frequency procedures developed for the Pilbara,
Kimberley, Wheatbelt and Goldfields regions of Western Australia, which should provide better
estimates of design floods than the methods recommended in the 1987 version of Australian Rainfall
and Runoff. The first section of the paper discusses the adequacy of the stream flow data on which
the regional flood frequency procedures (RFFPs) are based and identifies the large extrapolation of
the gauging station rating curves and the general underestimation of the magnitude of larger flood
events. This leads to the conclusion that a conservative approach is required when developing a RFFP.
A description of the general approach taken in developing the RFFPs is then given. Details of the
RFFPs developed for each region follow and finally a comparison is made between the magnitudes
of the floods in each region.

KEYWORDS: Western Australia; regional flood frequency procedures; Kimberley Region;

Pilbara Region; Wheatbelt Region; Goldfields Region; stream flow data quality; comparison
between regions.

REFERENCE: Flavell, D. 2012, “Design flood estimation in Western Australia”,

Australian Journal of Water Resources, Vol. 16, No. 1, pp. 1-20, http://dx.doi.org/10.7158/
W11-865.2012.16.1.

1 INTRODUCTION 1990s and the involvement of David Flavell Pty Ltd

When Australian Rainfall and Runoff (ARR1987;
IEAust, 1987) was published in 1987, it was
recognised that the quality and quantity of the
streamflow data available in Western Australia was
generally good in the southwest region, but became
poorer with distance from this more populous region.
In particular it was recognised that the majority of
gauging stations in the northwest and Kimberley
regions were poorly rated and had relatively short
lengths of record. Hence, flood estimates derived for
these regions using the methods recommended in
ARR1987 should be treated with caution, especially
for higher average recurrence intervals (ARIs).
Western Australia has gone through a period of
expansion of the mining industry since the late
* Paper W11-865 submitted 2/09/11; accepted for publication
after review and revision 3/02/12.
† Corresponding author David Flavell can be contacted at
djflavell@iinet.net.au.
in a large number of these mining projects provided
the opportunity to develop new flood estimation
procedures utilising longer lengths of stream flow
records than those utilised to develop the methods
given in ARR1987. A number of flood estimation
procedures were developed for the following regions,
which should provide more reliable flood estimates
than the methods in ARR1987:
• Pilbara Region
• Kimberley Region
• Wheatbelt Region – catchments largely cleared
for agriculture
• Goldfield Region – Leinster.
The stream flow data utilised in this study was
supplied by the West Australian Department of
Water for the Pilbara, Kimberley and Wheatbelt
regions. The data for Kambalda in the Goldfields
was supplied by the Western Mining Corporation,
now owned by BHP Billiton.

© Institution of Engineers Australia, 2012 Australian Journal of Water Resources, Vol 16 No 1

W11-865 Flavell.indd 1 14/08/12 10:20 AM

 2 “Design flood estimation in Western Australia” – Flavell
2 PROBLEMS INVOLVED IN
DEVELOPING A REGIONAL FLOOD
FREQUENCY PROCEDURE
2.1 Adequacy of stream flow data
The accuracy of a regional estimation procedure
is limited by the quality of the data on which it is
based. Some of the issues related to the available
streamflow data identified during the investigation
and development of regional flood frequency
procedures (RFFPs) include:
• the number and spatial distribution of gauging
stations
• record period
• gaps in data
• data quality.
2.1.1 Number and spatial distribution
of gauging stations
The Pilbara and Kimberley regions of Western
Australia cover an area of over half of the state
of Western Australia and yet there has been little
streamflow monitoring undertaken in these areas.
Approximately 25 stations are currently operating
within both the Kimberley and Pilbara regions of
Western Australia, which equates to approximately
one gauge per 20,000 km 2 . Over the last few
decades there has been a total of around 40 and 50
individual streamflow measurement sites that have
operated within the Kimberley and Pilbara regions,
respectively. The location of these gauges tends to be
focussed on individual catchments with large areas.
The number of gauging stations within each region
that are considered suitable for developing a RFFP
are given in table 1, together with the minimum and
maximum, and average lengths of record.
The following comments can be made about the
number of catchments selected as suitable:
Pilbara Region. With involvement since 1971 in
the investigation and design of bridges and major
drainage structures in the Pilbara during the
period that the road system was developed, a great
deal of experience was gained in the streams and
the suitability of the gauging stations for use in
developing a RFFP. Hence, the number of gauging
stations deemed suitable is relatively small – only one
Table 1: Lengths of record of gauging data in the Pilbara, Kimberley, Wheatbelt and Goldfields regions.
Number of
Region
gauging stations Maximum
Pilbara 16 34
Kimberley 22 41
Wheatbelt 16 40
Goldfields 1 –
Australian Journal of Water Resources
W11-865 Flavell.indd 2
gauging station on the Fortescue River was included
as the lower reaches of the Fortescue River are not
considered typical of Pilbara catchments. Details of
the gauged catchments are given in the David Flavell
Pty Ltd (2011) report “Design Flood Estimation in
Western Australia”.
Kimberley Region. Less experience has been gained
with the Kimberley, because it is largely undeveloped
and is crossed by only one sealed road. All the
catchments with records greater than 12 years were
included in the study, except for four catchments
that were found to be discordant. None of the stream
gauges in the Kimberley are located upstream of
bridges and hence there should be fewer problems
with their rating curves. Details of the gauged
catchments are given in the Appendix.
Wheatbelt Region. When investigating the drainage
requirements for a proposed 140 km long railway
in the northern Wheatbelt region, a new flood
estimation procedure was developed. The catchments
utilised to develop the index flood method given in
ARR1987 were selected together with one additional
catchment. These 16 catchments have been largely
cleared for agriculture, clearing 75 to 100%. Details of
the gauged catchments are given in the David Flavell
Pty Ltd (2011) report “Design Flood Estimation in
Western Australia”.
Goldfields Region. The only gauging data available
for the Goldfields was recorded by Western
Mining personnel (the late Mr Bert Barnes) for the
stream that flows through West Kambalda into the
Newtown Dam. There are 13 years of record between
1968 and 1980.
2.1.2 Record period
Of the available gauged data only about half of the
sites have record lengths in excess of 20 years and only
one site has records dating back more than 40 years.
To limit the variability of rainfall and runoff with
time, it is normal practice to use stream flow data
from each site with a common base period. However,
the varying operating periods of the gauges makes
it impossible to select a common base period for all
of the catchments in a region and the wide spatial
spread of the gauging stations, together with the
large variation in catchment area makes it impractical
to fill in any overlaps between the periods of record.
Length of record (years)
Minimum Average
19 26.8
13 29.0
15 25.7
– 13.0
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 “Design flood estimation in Western Australia” – Flavell
Hence, a common base period has not been used and
this will reduce the accuracy of the derived RFFPs.
2.1.3 Gaps in records
There are numerous gaps in the records of many of the
gauging stations, which are assumed to be the result
of malfunction or the overwhelming of the gauges.
Hence, if a gap in a record coincides with the wet
season of a region, it is likely that a major flood event
has not been included in the record of streamflow.
In some instances very approximate estimates have
been made of the missing peak flows, but the quality
of these estimates are uncertain. For example, the
estimated peak flow for the cyclone “Monty” flood
in March 2004 in the Robe River supplied by the
Department of Water is 6274 m3/s. Based on a flood
study carried out for the Robe River Mining Company
(David Flavell Pty Ltd, 2006) of a 10.4 km reach of
the Robe River, covering the location of the Gauging
Station (707002), the flow was estimated at 8500 m3/s.
When assessing rare flood events, it should be
recognised that floods in the Pilbara can be as
large as any experienced in the world; see figure
1, which shows the 22,110 m3/s peak flow (Main
Roads estimate) at the North West Coastal Highway
crossing of the Yule River (catchment area = 7983 km2)
resulting from cyclone “Joan” in December 1975
compared with the maximum recorded world flows.
Where there were gaps in the records of a stream
gauge during the wet season the record for the year
that included the gap was excluded from the data set.
2.1.4 Data quality
Because of accessibility problems during the wet
season gauging at most gauges has been for relatively
World Maximum Floods
Yule River - Cyclone Joan
100000
Flood Peak (m3/sec)
10000
1000
10
Figure 1: World maximum floods and cyclone Joan flood in Yule River.
Australian Journal of Water Resources
W11-865 Flavell.indd 3
3
small flows. Hence, rating curves include very
large extrapolations from these small flows; see the
Appendix for extrapolation data for the Kimberley
gauging stations. Consequently there is a high degree
of uncertainty in the estimates of the larger flood
flows; flows are generally underestimated.
In an attempt to overcome this problem the
Department of Water has commenced work to
confirm the adequacy of the rating curves by using
HEC-RAS to model a reach of a stream and the
gauging station. There are a number of problems with
this approach, mainly associated with the roughness
of the stream bed, banks and the overbank flow areas,
and variation of bed roughness with depth of flow.
It is unlikely, therefore, that any modifications to the
rating curves based on HEC-RAS modelling will be
of a high order of accuracy.
Many stream gauges have been located immediately
upstream of bridges in an attempt to improve
accessibility. This has led to a number of problems
that result from the backwater caused by the bridge
constricting the flow and the potential for scour in
the bridge opening due to the increase in velocity
through the bridge. There is a potential for flood flows
to be either grossly overestimated or underestimated
depending upon the degree of constriction and
the type of stream bed material within the bridge
opening. As all the bridges downstream of the
stream gauges constrict the flow and have alluvial
beds, it is highly likely that the larger flows will be
underestimated The trapping of flood debris by the
piers and superstructure of a bridge during major
flood events can reduce its waterway capacity and
result in even higher backwaters, velocities and scour.
HEC-RAS has also been used to model a reach of
a stream encompassing the stream gauge and the
adjacent bridge in an attempt to improve the rating
Cyclone Joan (Dec 1975) Flood in Yule River
100 1000 10000 100000
Catchment Area (km2)
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 4 “Design flood estimation in Western Australia” – Flavell
curves. This modelling is subject to the problems
identified above plus the practical problems that
make it almost impossible to estimate and model
any scour that might occur. It is likely, therefore, that
any modification to the rating curves will not allow
for scour and tend to underestimate the magnitude
of rarer flood events.
2.1.5 Conclusions
From the discussion above, it can be concluded that
the stream flow data in the north of Western Australia
leaves much to be desired. In particular, extrapolation
of the rating curves is suspect and the magnitude
of larger flood events is generally underestimated.
It should be noted that longer records for some of
the gauging stations will not necessarily improve
estimates of flood quantiles, as more major flood
events could be missing from the data sets or the
peak flows underestimated. Given the quality of the
available streamflow data, a conservative approach
is justified when developing a RFFP.
It should also be noted that the level of sophistication
and the accuracy of a RFFP is limited by the number,
spatial distribution and range of characteristics of
the gauged catchments, together with the accuracy
of the streamflow data. The RFFPs given below are
considered to be the best that can be achieved with
the available data.
2.2 Partial series data
The partial series was selected for use when
investigating flows from stream gauges in the north
of Western Australia, because it has significant
advantages over the annual series in semi-arid
regions. It consists of all recorded floods with peak
discharges above a selected base value, regardless
of the number of floods occurring each year. The
annual exceedance series, where the number of floods
equals the number of years of record is a particular
form of the partial series. It was adopted, because it
simplifies calculation of the frequency distributions
of peak flows.
The daily maximum peak flows for each gauging
station were supplied by the Department of Water
in digital format. This data was visually screened
to ensure that individual flood peaks were not
serially correlated. For the smaller catchments it was
generally very obvious whether flood peaks were
independent. For the larger catchments, a reduction
in the peak rate of flow of 90% was generally adopted
to determine whether floods were independent.
2.3 Probability distributions
Two probability distributions were fitted to the
partial series data from each gauging station in
the Pilbara, Kimberley and Wheatbelt regions, and
Australian Journal of Water Resources
W11-865 Flavell.indd 4
the plotting positions and probability distributions
plotted to a normal-probability scale:
• Log Pearson Type III (LPIII) – as recommended
in ARR1987
• Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) – using
L-moments as recommended by Hoskins &
Wallace (1990; 1993; 1997).
The GEV probability distribution based on linear
moments has a number of advantages over
conventional moments:
• They suffer less from the effects of sampling
variability.
• They are more robust than conventional moments
to outliers in the data.
• They enable more secure inference to be made
from small samples about an underlying
probability distribution.
Experience with the use of the GEV distribution
has proven that it gives a better fit to the data from
individual stream gauges and does not give large
variations in flood quantiles with increasing length
of record, as found with the LPIII distribution. Hence
the GEV distribution was adopted for the Kimberley
and Wheatbelt regions.
Experience with flood estimation in the Pilbara
over a period of 40 years has indicated that major
flood events are either missing or their magnitude
underestimated at most of the gauging stations; based
on levels of flood debris, hydraulic modelling and
recorded rainfall data. There was a concern, therefore,
that a RFFP based on the available stream flow data
would underestimate rarer flood events. A method
that would increase the magnitude of the flows for
the rarer floods in a uniform manner was required
therefore, to compensate for the underestimation
of the larger flows. This was achieved by log
transformation of the stream flow data and the
fitting of the GEV distribution to this data. It was
found that the three distributions (LPIII, GEV and
GEV-log) generally gave similar flood quantiles
at the 2-, 5- and 10-year levels. Above the 10-year
level the GEV-log gave higher estimates, followed
by the LPIII distribution and GEV distribution. As
the GEV-log generally fitted the data better than the
other distributions and gave higher quantiles for
ARIs above 10 years, it was conservatively adopted.
However, it was only possible to use equations up to
the 20-year level in the adopted RFFP with frequency
factors utilised to estimate the 50- and 100-year flows.
3 CATCHMENT AND
CLIMATIC FACTORS
The catchment and climatic factors Investigated for
each region were:
• catchment area, A (km2)
• mainstream length, L (km) – measured from the
site of gauging station to the catchment boundary
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 “Design flood estimation in Western Australia” – Flavell
• equivalent uniform slope, S e (m/km) of the
mainstream (sometimes known as the equal area
slope)
• mean annual rainfall, MAR (mm) at the catchment
centroid
• latitude, LAT (degrees) of catchment centroid
• longitude, LONG (degrees) of catchment centroid
• 12-hour statistical rainfall totals (mm; ARR1987) of
ARI Y years, 2 to 100 years, R12y at the catchment
centroid
• 24-hour statistical rainfall totals (mm; ARR1987) of
ARI Y years, 2 to 100 years, R24y at the catchment
centroid.
As area, mainstream length and equivalent uniform
slope are highly correlated they cannot be included
separately when carrying out multiple linear
regression analysis, because they may lead to
unstable and unreliable regression coefficients.
To avoid this problem, mainstream length and
equivalent uniform slope were combined to provide
factors that were not highly correlated:
• area and equivalent uniform slope is ASe0.5
• area and mainstream length is L 2/A, which
provides a measure of catchment shape.
4 PILBARA REGION
A RFFP was initially developed for the Pilbara
prior to 2000. It was redeveloped in 2006 with the
longer stream flow records available at that time to
determine whether any changes were required to
the procedure.
4.1 Year 2000 RFFP
4.1.1 Gauging data
The data (record up to 1996/97) from 15 gauging
stations was used to develop the RFFP. The range
of catchment characteristics of these stations are:
A = 52.5 to 7983 km2; L = 25.1 to 375 km; Se = 0.84 to
10.1 m/km; LAT = 21.13° to 23.74°; LONG = 116.61°
to 119.81°; MAR = 200 to 350 mm; R1250 = 138.0 to
234.0 mm; R2450 = 168.9 to 279.3 mm; ASe0.5 = 166.7
to 10971.2; and L2/A = 2.10 to 6.89.
4.1.2 Regression analysis
Multiple linear regression analysis was initially
carried out with either mean annual rainfall or
statistical rainfall totals or latitude and longitude as
the climate factor. From this analysis, it was found
that the predictive equations including mean annual
rainfall gave a coefficient of determination (R2) of
about 0.7, the statistical rainfall totals an R2 of about
0.8 and latitude and longitude an R2 of about 0.9.
Latitude and longitude were adopted therefore, as
the climate factor in the regression analysis.
Australian Journal of Water Resources
W11-865 Flavell.indd 5
5
Regression analysis was carried out between the
flood quantiles and latitude and longitude and shape
factor (L2/A), and either catchment area or ASe0.5. It
was found that all three combinations of catchment
factors were significant up to the 10-year level with
shape factor not significant at the 20-year level. It
was also found that longitude was not significant
at the 50-year level and hence, flows for the 50- and
100-year vents would have to be estimated using
frequency factors based on the relationships between
flood quantiles and catchment area.
4.1.3 Frequency factors
The 2-, 5-, 10- and 20-year average frequency factors
were determined from the flood quantiles given by
the probability distributions fitted to the partial series
data assuming a value of 1.0 for the 10-year factor.
These factors are plotted on figure 2 and extrapolated
up to the 100-year level.
The 2-, 5-, 10-, 20- and 50-year flows were estimated
for the average area (5570.4 km2) of the 15 catchments
using the regression equations relating flow to
catchment area and frequency factors derived using
these flows.
From the two sets of frequency factors, which are
compared in table 2, it can be seen that they are
similar up to the 20-year level with a much lower
value for the 50-year level based on a regression
equation. This could indicate that this equation will
underestimate peak flows and hence, the 50 and
100-year flows should be based on frequency factors.
This was achieved by estimating the frequency
factors using the regression equations relating flow
to catchment area for flows up to the 20-year level
and extrapolating up to the 50 and 100-year levels.
4.1.4 RFFP
The derived RFFP is:
Q2 = 1.72 × 10–64(ASe0.5)0.8LAT–12.17LONG38.77(L2/A)–1.05 (1)
R2 = 0.92 and SEE = 0.174 (+103.5%, –50.9%)
Q5 = 7.47 × 10–46(ASe0.5)0.81LAT–14.62LONG31.40(L2/A)–0.68 (2)
R2 = 0.93 and SEE = 0.159 (+91.3%, –47.7%)
Q10 = 2.36 × 10–34(ASe0.5)0.81LAT–15.24LONG26.28(L2/A)–0.39 (3)
R2 = 0.94 and SEE = 0.152 (+85.4%, –46.1%)
where SEE = standard error of estimate. Numbers in
parenthesis are the SEE of the actual Qy estimates and
indicate the 95% confidence limits. If shape factor,
L2/A < 1.0 use A/L2.
Q20 should be the taken as the larger flow given by
either of the following equations:
Q20 = 1.98 × 10–23(ASe0.5)0.79LAT–15.08LONG20.91 (4)
R2 = 0.92 and SEE = 0.167 (+97.6%, –49.4%)
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 6 “Design flood estimation in Western Australia” – Flavell

6
5
5.23
4

3
3.20
Frtequency Factor
2

1.65

100

7
6 0.62
5

3 0.30

2
100 2 3 4 5 6 7 101 2 3 4 5 6 7 102

Average Recurrence Interval (years)

Figure 2: Pilbara mean frequency factors.

Table 2: Pilbara Region frequency factors. Qy = y-year flood estimate (m3/s).

ARI (years) 2 5 10 20 50 100

Mean from probability distributions 0.30 0.62 1.00 1.65 3.20 5.23
From equations for estimating Qy from area 0.29 0.64 1.00 1.65 2.20 –

Table 3: RFFP2000 – Q50/Q20 and Q100/Q20 frequency factors.

Frequency Catchment area (km2)

factor 0.1 1.0 10 100 1000 10,000 100,000
Q50/Q20 1.66 1.72 1.78 1.83 1.88 1.93 2.00
Q100/Q20 2.44 2.61 2.75 2.87 3.03 3.20 3.42

or 4.1.6 Experience with use of RFFP

Q20 = Q10(13.21A0.61)/(8.74A0.60)
Q50 and Q100 should be determined as follows:
Q50 = Q20 × frequency factor (Q50/Q20)
Q100 = Q20 × frequency factor (Q100/Q20)
Frequency factors (Q 50/Q20) and (Q 100/Q 20) are
given in table 3. Frequency factors for areas other
than those given in table 3 should be obtained by
log interpolation.
4.1.5 Peer review
The Pilbara RFFP2000 was peer reviewed by Dr
Bryson Bates of the CSIRO, who concluded that:
In practice the design flood estimates obtained by
the regional flood frequency procedure proposed
by David Flavell Pty Ltd should be more reliable
than the methods described in the third addition of
Australian Rainfall and Runoff.
(5) The 2000 version of the Pilbara RFFP has been
adopted for the design of almost all of the major
infrastructure projects undertaken by Rio Tinto, BHP
(6) Billiton and Fortescue Metals Group during the last
13 years. During this time it has been refined and
(7) improved with experience in its use.
Waterway structures designed using the RFFP
have experienced a number of major rainfall events
associated with tropical cyclones and passed floods
with ARIs of the order of 30 years without damage.
Whenever possible the RFFP has been checked
against flows estimated from flood debris levels and
recorded rainfall data and found to give estimates
of the right order of magnitude. It has also been
compared with flows estimated independently
by other bodies and found to give similar order
of magnitude of flood flows; for example the
Department of the Environment (now Department
of Water) carried out an Extreme Flood Study of the
Harding Dam in 2004 and estimated the 100-year

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 “Design flood estimation in Western Australia” – Flavell
peak flow into the dam as 5730 m3/s compared with
5247 m3/s given by the RFFP.
4.2 Year 2006 RFFP update
4.2.1 Gauging data
The same gauging stations were selected as those
used when developing the year 2000 version of the
RFFP with the addition of one catchment. This gave
a total of 16 catchments with records up to 2003/04
for those gauging stations that had not been closed.
The range of catchment factors investigated were
the same as those given in section 4.1.1 above with
latitude and longitude and the 12-hour statistical
rainfall totals as the only climate factors.
4.2.2 Regression analysis
Multiple linear regressions between flood quantiles
and catchment factors gave similar results to those
found previously, except that the shape factor was
only significant up to the 5-year level. This was
attributed to the fact that some gauging stations had
been closed whereas others were still recording.
4.2.3 RFFP
The derived RFFP is:
Q2 = 1.91 × 10–59(ASe0.5)0.77LAT–14.97LONG37.95
R2 = 0.89 and SEE = 0.196 (+121.6%, –54.9%)
Q5 = 2.73 × 10–39(ASe0.5)0.81LAT–16.71LONG29.42
R2 = 0.91 and SEE = 0.180 (+107.2%, –51.7%)
Q10 = 9.38 × 10–28(ASe0.5)0.82LAT–16.31LONG23.67
R2 = 0.92 and SEE – 0.175 (+103.2%, -50.8%)
Q20 = 9.38 × 10–19(ASe0.5)0.83LAT–14.76LONG18.40
R2 = 0.90 and SEE = 0.192 (+117.9%, –54.1%)
Q50 = Q20 × frequency factor (Q50/Q20)
Q100 = Q20 × frequency factor (Q100/Q20)
Frequency factors (Q50/Q20) and (Q100/Q20) are given
in table 4. Frequency factors for areas other than those
given in table 4 should be obtained by log interpolation.
4.3 Recommended procedure
The design flood estimates given by the RFFP2006
were compared with the estimates given by the
Table 4: RFFP2006 – Q50/Q20 and Q100/Q20 frequency factors.
Frequency
factor 0.1 1.0
Q50/Q20 1.69 1.70
Q100/Q20 2.54 2.58
Australian Journal of Water Resources
W11-865 Flavell.indd 7
7
RFFP2000 for a number of catchments throughout
the Pilbara. It was found that the RFFP2006 gives
higher estimates for floods with ARIs of 2 to 10 years
and lower estimates for floods with ARIs of 20 to 100
years; 0% to 8% lower for the 20-year flood and 8%
to 19% lower for the 100-year flood. The RFFP2000 is
recommended, therefore, as the preferred procedure,
as it gives higher flood estimates for the ARIs
commonly used for the design of drainage structures
and includes shape factor. The procedure should be
applicable to all catchments typical of those found
in the Pilbara.
5 KIMBERLEY REGION
5.1 Gauging data
The spatial distribution of the gauged catchments
in the Kimberley Region is poor with no suitable
gauged catchments in the west Kimberley. Hence
any RFFP developed for the Kimberley will only be
applicable to the north, central and southeast areas;
that is the more rugged parts of the Kimberley.
Of the 26 gauging stations identified as suitable for use
in developing a RFFP, four were found to be discordant
and were excluded. Regression analysis was carried out
on the data from the remaining 22 gauges and it was
found that that latitude was not significant. Regression
(8) equations utilising catchment area were found to give
flood quantiles that reduced with increasing rainfall.
This is obviously incorrect and indicates that the data
(9) from some of the gauging stations is suspect. The
Department of Water was approached, therefore, for
advice on the gauging stations.
(10)
To assess which gauged catchments should be selected
for use in developing a RFFP, the data for each
catchment was assembled by increasing catchment
(11) area, together with the comments by the Department
of Water. The data, which is given in the Appendix,
includes all factors that could impact on the flood
(12) producing characteristics of a catchment and includes:
• catchment characteristics
(13)
• rainfall totals for 10- and 20-year ARIs
• flood quantiles given by the GEV distributions
for 10- and 20-year ARIs
• 20-year flood quantile divided by the 10-year
flood quantile
• 20-year flood quantile divided by catchment area.
From a close examination of table A1 in the
Appendix and some trial regressions including
Catchment area (km2)
10 100 1000 10,000 100,000
1.72 1.73 1.74 1.75 1.77
2.62 2.65 2.69 2.73 2.76
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 8 “Design flood estimation in Western Australia” – Flavell
various combinations of data from the gauges,
eight were excluded, leaving 14. For example, from
comparison of Gauges 809321 and 806006, it can be
seen that although the two catchments have similar
characteristics, the 20-year rainfall total for 806006
is 38.9% greater than that for 809321, whereas, the
20-year peak flow is 29.1% less. Although 806006 is
one of the gauges where the rating has been checked
using HEC-RAS, it was excluded and the more
conservative data from 809321 included.
The data (record up to 2005/06) from the selected 14
gauging stations was used to develop the RFFP. The
range of catchment characteristics of these stations
are: A = 66.5 0 to 18,855 km2; L = 16.8 to 222.4 km; Se =
1.01 to 11.05 m/km; LAT = 14.54° to 18.18°; LONG =
125.04° to 129.54°; R1250 = 151.6 to 270.9 mm; R2450 =
198.7 to 409.0 mm; ASe0.5 = 185 to 19,567; and L2/A =
2.62 to 8.63.
5.2 Regression analysis
Two sets of regressions were investigated, one based on
A and one on ASe0.5, shape factor was not found to be
significant. The 24-hour rainfall total was found to give
slightly better results than the 12-hour rainfall totals.
5.2.1 Based on A
The derived RFFP based on area and 24-hour rainfall is:
Q2 = 0.79A0.472R2420.775 (14)
R2 = 0.92 and SEE = 0.111 (+57.6, –36.6)
Q5 = 0.40A0.506R2450.902 (15)
R2 = 0.94 and SEE = 0.107 (+54.8, –35.4)
Q10 = 0.24A0.528R24101.00 (16)
R2 = 0.94 and SEE = 0.108 (+55.7, –35.8)
Q20 = 0.13A0.549R24201.100 (17)
R2 = 0.94 and SEE = 0.112 (+58.1, –36.7)
Q50 = 0.06 × A0.577R24501.235 (18)
R2 = 0.93 and SEE = 0.120 (+63.7, –38.9)
Q100 = 0.03 × A0.599R241001.337 (19)
R2 = 0.93 and SEE = 0.129 (+72.3, –42.0)
5.2.2 Based on ASe0.5
The derived RFFP based on ASe0.5 and 24-hour rainfall
where significant is:
Table 5: Kimberley Region frequency factors.
ARI (years) 2 5
Mean from probability distributions 0.39
From regression equations based on area 0.38
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Q2 = 16.1(ASe0.5)0.507 (20)
R2 = 0.89 and SEE = 0.124 (+66.0, –39.8)
Q5 = 16.2(ASe0.5)0.572 (21)
R2 = 0.93 and SEE = 0.105 (+53.7, –34.9)
Q10 = 0.82(ASe0.5)0.616R24100.575 (22)
R2 = 0.94 and SEE = 0.107 (+55.2, –35.6)
Q20 = 0.52(ASe0.5)0.639R24200.658 (23)
R2 = 0.94 and SEE = 0.112 (+58.3, –36.8)
Q50 = 0.26(ASe0.5)0.670R24500.775 (24)
R2 = 0.93 and SEE = 0.122 (+65.1, –39.4)
Q100 = 0.15(ASe0.5)0.694R241000.870 (25)
R2 = 0.92 and SEE = 0.133 (+70.0, –41.2)
5.3 Frequency factors
The 2-, 5-, 10-, 20-, 50- and 100-year average frequency
factors were determined from the probability
distributions fitted to the partial series data assuming
a value of 1.0 for the 20-year ARI.
The 2-, 5-, 10-, 20-, 50- and 100-year flows were
estimated for the average area (4150.6 km2) of the 14
catchments using the regression equations relating
flow to catchment area and frequency factors derived
using these flows.
From the two sets of frequency factors, which are
compared in table 5 and plotted on figure 3, it can be
seen that they are similar up to the 20-year level with
lower values given by the probability distributions
for the 50- and 100-year levels.
The plots of the mean frequency factors shown on
figure 3 are different from the plots for the Pilbara and
Wheatbelt; see figures 2 and 4, which plot almost as
straight lines up to the 20-year level. The plot based
on the regression equations for the Kimberley only
plot as a straight line up to the 10-year level; this
would indicate that the flood events in the Kimberley
could be underestimated above the 5- to 10-year level
and any RFFP based on the regression equations for
higher ARIs could also underestimate the magnitude
of these flows.
5.4 Conclusion
Much of the investigative work given above was
carried out prior to obtaining full details of the
10 20 50 100
0.60 0.78 1.00 1.38 1.75
0.58 0.80 1.00 1.42 1.91
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 “Design flood estimation in Western Australia” – Flavell 9

2 1.91
Mean Frequency Factors from Distributions
Frequency Factors Based on Regression Equations 1.75
1.42
1.38

Frequency Factor
1.00
100
9
0.80
8
0.78
7
0.60
6
0.58
5

0.39
4

0.38

3
100 2 3 4 5 6 7 101 2 3 4 5 6 7 102

Average Recurrence Interval (years)

Figure 3: Kimberley frequency factors.

3
Mean frequency Factors from Distributions 2.74
Frequency Factors Based on Regression Equations

2 1.78

1.55
Frequency Factor

100 1.00
8 0.73
7
6 0.67
0.52
5

4
0.46
0.32
3

0.26
2
100 2 3 4 5 6 7 101 2 3 4 5 6 7 102
ARI (years)

Figure 4: Wheatbelt frequency factors (loam soil catchments, clearing 75-100%).

gauging stations from the Department of Water and for catchments in the higher rainfall areas close to
the realisation of just how poor the data is. Not only the coast as indicated in section 9.2.1.
is the spatial distribution of the stream gauges very
poor, but the extrapolation of the rating curves is over
a very large range of flows; only one gauging station 6 WHEATBELT REGION
has been gauged for a flow with an ARI of more than
2 years (see the Appendix). 6.1 Selection of gauged catchments

Given the quality of the data, it is concluded that Initially the streamflow and catchment data for the
estimates of rare flood events estimated using the 20 gauging stations utilised when developing the
regression equations given above will not be of a high methods in ARR1987 plus one further catchment
order of accuracy. However, they are based on the were assembled. A decision was made to limit the
only available data and should give better estimates new procedure to loam soil catchments that were 75%
than the methods in ARR1987. It is recommended to 100% cleared for agriculture, as the route of the
that both sets of equations should be used and the proposed railway (see section 2.1.1) passed mainly
largest flow adopted. Caution should be exercised through agricultural land. Following an investigation

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 10 “Design flood estimation in Western Australia” – Flavell

into the remaining 16 catchments a further three were
eliminated leaving 13. One of these was found to be
discordant leaving 12 gauged catchments on which
to base the new procedure.
6.2 Gauging data
Streamflow data with record up to 1996/97 was
used to develop the RFFP. The range of catchment
characteristics of the 12 gauged catchments are: A =
0.13 to 6840 km2; L = 0.495 to 234 km; Se = 0.83 to
40.33 m/km; clearing, CL = 75% to 100%; LAT = 28.34°
to 33.90°; LONG = 114.62° to 119.16°; R1250 = 72.2 to
85.7 mm; R2450 = 89.8 to 108.8 mm; ASe0.5 = 0.83 to
6506; and L2/A = 1.43 to 8.01.
6.3 Frequency factors
The 2-, 5-, 10-, 20- and 50-year average frequency
factors were determined from the probability
distributions fitted to the partial series data
assuming a value of 1.0 for the 20-year ARI. These
factors are plotted on figure 4, together with the
100-year value from extrapolation of the curve above
the 50-year level.
6.4 Regression analysis
From multiple regressions carried out between the
flood quantiles and catchment factors, it was found
that catchment area and the 12-hour rainfall totals
were the most significant factors for ARIs of 2 to 50
years. Clearing was not significant. It was also found
that shape factor was significant at the 10-, 20- and
50-year ARIs.
For the regressions using ASe0.5 instead of catchment
area, it was found that no other factors were
significant. The RFFP was based, therefore, on
catchment area, 12-hour rainfall totals and shape
factor where significant.
6.5 RFFP
The derived RFFP based on catchment area and
12-hour rainfall totals is:
Q2 = 4.53 × 10–3A0.67R1221.20 (26)
R2 = 0.985 and SEE = 0.188 (+118.7, –54.3)
Q5 = 4.39 × 10–3A0.64R1251.32 (27)
R2 = 0.987 and SEE = 0.168 (+101.2, –50.3)

The 2-, 5-, 10-, 20- and 50-year flows were estimated
for the average area (1108.0 km2) of the 12 catchments
using the regression equations relating flow to
catchment area and frequency factors derived using
these flows.
From the two sets of frequency factors, which are
compared in table 6 and shown on figure 4, it can
be seen that the frequency factors based on the
regression equations are higher for the 2-, 5- and
10-year ARIs and lower for the 50-year ARI. The
difference between the two plots is the result of the
range of clearing of the gauged catchments with
clearing increasing with decreasing size of catchment.
The frequency factors based on the regression
equations is for the average catchment area and
average clearing of 93.3%. As the clearing of a
catchment of this size should be less than the average
value, the frequency factors are overestimated. The
effect of clearing is discussed further in section 8.2.
Q10 = 1.99 × 10–3A0.67R12101.70(L2/A)–0.48 (28)
R2 = 0.987and SEE = 0.167 (+100.2, –50.1)
Q20 = 2.38 × 10–4A0.65R12202.28(L2/A)–0.56 (29)
R2 = 0.986 and SEE = 0.171 (+103.7, –50.9)
Q50 = Q20 × frequency factor (Q50/Q20) (30)
Q100 = Q20 × frequency factor (Q100/Q20) (31)
Frequency factors (Q50/Q20) and (Q100/Q20) are given
in table 7. Frequency factors for areas other than
those given in table 7 should be obtained by log
interpolation.
6.6 Comments on RFFP
The new procedure is based on streamflow data
with about twice the length of record of that used to

Table 6: Wheatbelt Region frequency factors.

ARI (years) 2 5 10 20 50 100

Mean from probability distributions 0.26 0.46 0.67 1.00 1.78 2.74
From regression equations based on area 0.32 0.52 0.73 1.00 1.55 –

Table 7: Wheatbelt Q50/Q20 and Q100/Q20 frequency factors.

Frequency Catchment area (km2)

factor 0.1 1.0 10 100 1000 10,000 100,000
Q50/Q20 2.05 1.91 1.77 1.64 1.50 1.36 2.05
Q100/Q20 3.60 3.23 2.87 2.50 2.13 1.77 3.60

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 “Design flood estimation in Western Australia” – Flavell
develop the methods in ARR1987 and should give
better estimates of flood flows.
It should be noted that the new RFFP is applicable to
catchments with clearing between 75% and 100% and
will overestimate flows from uncleared catchments. It
will also underestimate flows from steep catchments.
7 GOLDFIELDS – LEINSTER AREA
A flood estimation procedure was developed for
Leinster.
7.1 Available data
The only streamflow data available for the Goldfields
is that recorded by the Western Mining Corporation
for the stream which flows through West Kambalda
into the Newtown Dam. The period of record and the
characteristics for this catchment are: period of record,
1968-1980 = 13 years; A = 54.1 km2; L = 12.0 km; Se =
5.60 m/km; L2/A = 3.43; and MAR = 265 m.
7.2 Catchment modelling and
derivation of runoff coefficients
Although this catchment only has 13 years of record, it
provides the only data for the Goldfields. Analysis of
the partial series data for this catchment indicated that
it has a skew of –0.14. LPIII frequency distributions
were fitted to the data with skews of –0.14 and 0. As
Figure 5: Newtown Dam catchment proportional loss rates.
Table 8: Proportional loss rates (%).
ARI (years) 2 5
Wheatbelt – loam soils 91 89
Goldfields – Newtown Dam 92 84
Pilbara 77 75
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11
the difference between the flows for these two values
of skew are negligible for the more frequent floods
and small for the rarer flood events. A skew of zero
(lognormal distribution) was conservatively adopted
for investigation of the losses from rainfall that might
be expected in the Goldfields. The RORB computer
program (Laurenson & Mein, 1992; Nathan, 2007) was
used to derive the losses associated with the various
ARIs flows given by the frequency distribution fitted
to the data for the Newtown Dam catchment.
A RORB model of the catchment was constructed and
the model parameters estimated using the regional
relationships given in ARR1987 for Western Australia
(Flavell et al, 1983). The model included an allowance
for the impervious area within West Kambalda, so
that any derived losses would be applicable to a
catchment in its natural state.
Proportional loss rates (PLRs) were derived by a
trial and error fitting procedure. Design storms of a
particular ARI were applied to the RORB model and
the PLR varied until the peak flow for that particular
ARI was reproduced. From figure 5, which shows a
plot of the derived PLRs with ARI to a log scale, it can
be seen that the PLRs almost plot as a straight line and
extrapolation up to an ARI of 100 years can be made
with reasonable confidence. This is similar to the
results found for other regions of Western Australia.
The losses for the Newtown Dam catchment are given
in table 8, together with the mean of the losses derived
for catchments in the Wheatbelt and Pilbara regions.
10 20 50 100
84 79 72 66
77 72 65 60
70 65 56 49
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 12 “Design flood estimation in Western Australia” – Flavell

From examination of the PLRs given in table 8, it
can be seen that the losses for the Newtown Dam
catchment lie between those of the Wheatbelt
and Pilbara regions. This would appear to be
consistent with the topography, vegetation and
soil types associated with the catchments found in
these regions.
Wheatbelt:
• Topography and soils – undulating plateau with
mostly disorganised drainage. Soils typically
yellow earths on sandplain, and hard-setting loam
soils on slopes and bottomlands.
• Vegetation – the PLRs given in table 8 are for
catchments largely cleared for agriculture with
predominantly loam soils.
• Rainfall – mean annual rainfall 300-650 mm. The
more frequent rainfall events occur in winter as
the result of frontal systems and the rarer events
in summer, as the result of thunderstorms or
tropical cyclones that have weakened into rain
bearing depressions.
Pilbara:
• Topography and soils – mountainous region rising
to 1250 m. Hard red soils on plains and pediments,
and shallow skeletal soils on the ranges.
• Vegetation – spinifex country is the characteristic
landscape element. Mulga occurs in valleys and
there are short grass plains.
• Rainfall – mean annual rainfall 250-300 mm. The
more frequent rainfall events result from localised
thunderstorms or tropical upper air disturbances.
Rarer events are caused by thunderstorms, tropical
low pressure systems and tropical cyclones.
Newtown Dam catchment:
• Topography and soils – gently undulating with
brown calcareous earths.
• Vegetation – predominantly eucalypt woodland.
• Rainfall – mean annual rainfall 265 mm. The
more frequent rainfall events occur in winter
as the result of frontal systems or in summer as
a result of tropical upper air disturbances. The
rarer events occur in summer, as the result of
thunderstorms or tropical cyclones that have
weakened into rain bearing depressions.
7.3 Comparison between Newtown
Dam catchment and Leinster area
The factors that influence losses from rainfall are
compared in table 9 for the Newtown Dam catchment
and catchments in the Leinster area.
Comparing each of the hydrological factors:
• Average annual rainfall – the higher rainfall for the
Newtown Dam catchment is due to the incidence
of a greater winter rainfall. As major flood events
are more likely to occur in the summer months,
antecedent conditions and losses should be
similar for both the Newtown Dam catchment
and the catchments in the Leinster area.
• Major flood producing events – the incidence
of thunderstorms should be similar for both the
Newtown Dam catchment and the catchments in
the Leinster area. The incidence of cyclones that
have weakened into rain bearing depressions
could possibly be higher in the Leinster area
than for the Newtown Dam catchment. This
is confirmed by the statistical rainfall data
in ARR1987, especially for longer duration
storms. Hence, losses could possibly be less for
catchments in the Leinster area, because of wetter
antecedent conditions.
• Predominant soil type – the soils in the Leinster
area should result in lower losses than for the
Newtown Dam catchment.
• Vegetation – the vegetative cover on the Newtown
Dam catchment should result in higher losses
than the catchments in the Leinster area, which
generally have very light vegetative cover.
Selection of loss rates on the basis of the comparisons
given above is rather subjective. However, it would
appear that losses associated with the more frequent
events could be greater in the Leinster area than for
the Newtown Dam catchment. It would also appear
that losses could be less in the Leinster area than for
the Newtown Dam catchment for rarer events
Given the quality and length of record of the available
data, a conservative approach is justified in estimating
the design floods for catchments in the Leinster area.
Hence the 1-year losses were kept the same for both
locations and the 100-year losses reduced by 10%
for the Leinster area. The 5- to 50-year losses were

Table 9: Comparison of hydrological factors for Newtown Dam and Leinster areas.

Hydrological factors Newtown Dam Leinster area

Average annual rainfall (mm)
Major flood producing events
Predominant soil type
Vegetation
265
Thunderstorms/cyclones
Calcareous earths
Eucalypt woodland
200
Thunderstorms/cyclones
Shallow earthy loam overlying hardpan
and shallow stony loam on hills
Mulga Woodland or Shrub

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 “Design flood estimation in Western Australia” – Flavell 13

proportioned between the adopted 1- and 100-year one excluding slope for use in areas where there is
values as shown in figure 5. The adopted values and insufficient topographic data to estimate the slope
runoff coefficients are given in table 10. of a catchment.
Including equivalent uniform slope:
7.4 Derivation of flood estimation procedure
Q2 = 0.16(ASe0.5)0.82(L2/A)–0.35 (32)
A flood estimation procedure was developed by: R2 = 0.995 and SEE = 0.036
• selecting 12 catchments in the vicinity of Leinster
and deriving the 2-, 5-, 10-, 20-, 50- and 100-year Q5 = 0.48(ASe0.5)0.84(L2/A)–0.33 (33)
ARI design floods for each catchment using R2 = 0.995 and SEE = 0.034
catchment modelling and the runoff coefficients
given in table 10. Q10 = 0.89(ASe0.5)0.84(L2/A)–0.34 (34)
• multiple regression analysis of the 2-, 5-, 10-, R2 = 0.994 and SEE = 0.038
20-, 50- and 100-year ARI design flood estimates
and catchment characteristics to give a flood Q20 = 1.45(ASe0.5)0.85(L2/A)–0.33 (35)
estimation procedure for estimating the 2-, 5-, R2 = 0.995 and SEE = 0.035
10-, 20-, 50- and 100-year ARI design floods for
catchments in the Leinster area. Q50 = 2.44(ASe0.5)0.82(L2/A)–0.36 (36)
RORB models of the 12 catchments were constructed R2 = 0.994 and SEE = 0.038
with the model parameters estimated using the
Q100 = 3.28(ASe0.5)0.83(L2/A)–0.35 (37)
regional relationships given in ARR1987 for Western
Australia. The catchment characteristics and derived R2 = 0.994 and SEE = 0.037
20-year ARI design flood estimates are given in table where L2/A < 1.0, it should be replaced with A/L2.
11 for each of the modelled catchments.
Excluding equivalent uniform slope:
Multiple linear regressions were carried out between
the 2-, 5-, 10-, 20-, 50- and 100-year ARI flows and Q2 = 0.38A0.70(L2/A)–0.29 (38)
catchment characteristics to derive equations for R2 = 0.982 and SEE = 0.065
estimating design floods.
Q5 = 0.86A0.72(L2/A)–0.27 (39)
7.5 Leinster flood frequency procedure R2 = 0.989 and SEE = 0.053

Two procedures were developed, one including Q10 = 2.15A0.72(L2/A)–0.28 (40)

equivalent uniform slope and shape factor, and R2 = 0.987 and SEE = 0.058

Table 10: Wheatbelt Region frequency factors.

ARI (years) 2 5 10 20 50 100

Adopted PLR (%) 98 92 83 76 69 60
Runoff coefficient 0.02 0.08 0.17 0.24 0.31 0.40

Table 11: Catchment characteristics and design flood estimates given by RORB.

Critical storm RORB Q20

Catchment A (km2) L (km) Se (m/km) L2/A ASe0.5
duration (hours) (m3/s)
1 0.261 1.07 12.87 4.39 0.94 1 0.84
2 0.325 0.93 17.49 2.66 1.36 1 1.17
3 0.879 1.65 8.23 3.10 2.52 1 2.13
4 0.912 1.55 12.11 2.63 3.17 1 2.69
5 1.129 2.01 7.18 3.58 3.03 1 2.72
6 1.289 1.64 8.42 2.09 3.74 1 3.85
7 1.309 2.27 15.90 3.94 5.22 1 3.62
8 1.836 2.28 4.21 2.83 3.77 2 3.38
9 3.423 3.42 6.74 3.43 8.89 2 6.43
10 10.80 5.30 5.24 2.60 24.72 6 15.64
11 14.80 7.14 4.88 3.44 32.69 6 17.24
12 27.80 12.24 3.97 5.39 55.39 6 25.29

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 14 “Design flood estimation in Western Australia” – Flavell

Q20 = 3.53A0.73(L2/A)–0.27 (41) It is concluded that the proposed method is the

R2 = 0.991 and SEE = 0.049 most appropriate for estimating design floods from
catchments with incised channels in the Leinster area.
Q50 = 5.78A0.71(L2/A)–0.30 (42)
R2 = 0.987 and SEE = 0.056
8 COMPARISON BETWEEN REGIONS
0.72 2 –0.29
Q100 = 7.87A (L /A) (43)
Plots of the flood flows given by the RFFPs for the
R2 = 0.988 and SEE = 0.055
Pilbara, Goldfields and Wheatbelt and the regression
where L2/A < 1.0, it should be replaced with A/L2. equations for the Kimberley are shown on figures 6,
7 and 8 for the 20-, 50- and 100-year events. From
7.6 Comparison with design flood estimates these plots, it would appear that the Kimberley and
given by methods in ARR1987 Wheatbelt regions do not fit the general trend.

The 20-year ARI design flood estimates given by
the Western Australia Rational Method, the South
Australia Rational Method, and equations (35) and
(41) are given in table 12.
It can be seen from table 12 that:
• the Western Australia Rational Method and the
South Australia Rational Method give design
flood estimates of similar order of magnitude
• equations (35) and (41) all give lower design
flood estimates than the other methods, except
for catchments with areas greater than about
10 km2. The impact of slope and catchment shape
can also be seen with steep catchments giving
higher flows and catchments with high shape
factors lower flows.
7.8 Comments on procedure
Although the method proposed for the Leinster area
is derived using limited data, it is based on more data
than any of the other methods investigated. It also
gives design flood estimates that appear to be of the
right order of magnitude when compared with those
from the Pilbara and Wheatbelt regions (see below).
8.1 Kimberley Region
The plots for the Kimberley Region have a flatter
slope, which becomes steeper with increase in ARI.
The only way to determine whether these differences
in slope are correct is through comparison of the
rainfall data between adjacent regions: the Kimberley
and Pilbara.
The 12- and 24-hour 20-, 50- and 100-year rainfalls
(ARR1987) for Kalumburu and Halls Creek in the
Kimberley and Pt Hedland in the Pilbara are compared
in table 13, together with the MAR, which can be
considered as an indication of antecedent wetness.
The following subsections compare the rainfall for
Pt Hedland and Kalumburu, and Pt Hedland and
Halls Creek separately.
8.1.1 Pt Hedland and Kalumburu
It can be seen from table 14 that the 12-hour rainfall for
Kalumburu is very much larger than for Pt Hedland,
but the difference between the 24-hour rainfalls is
much smaller. This could explain the flatter slope for
the Kimberley compared with the Pilbara, because the

Table 13: Comparison of 20-year ARI design flood estimates.

WA rational SA rational
A Se Equation (35) Equation (41)
Catchment L2/A method method
(km2) (m/km) (m3/s) (m3/s)
(m3/s) (m3/s)
1 0.261 12.87 4.39 1.57 1.49 0.84 0.89
2 0.325 17.49 2.66 1.97 2.30 1.36 1.19
3 0.879 8.23 3.10 3.37 3.21 2.19 2.37
4 0.912 12.11 2.63 3.56 4.36 2.81 2.54
5 1.129 7.18 3.58 3.74 3.33 2.44 2.73
6 1.289 8.42 2.09 4.51 4.92 3.49 3.48
7 1.309 15.90 3.94 3.99 5.63 3.76 2.97
8 1.836 4.21 2.83 5.14 3.46 3.18 4.15
9 3.423 6.74 3.43 7.03 7.40 6.18 6.21
10 10.80 5.24 2.60 14.13 15.80 16.16 15.49
11 14.80 4.88 3.44 15.86 17.43 18.68 18.07
12 27.80 3.97 5.39 20.51 21.11 25.23 25.38

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 “Design flood estimation in Western Australia” – Flavell 15

Pilbara - Lat 20.50 & Long 1200

2 Pilbara - Lat 21.50 & Long 1200
Plibara - Lat 22.50 & Long 1200
10000 Pilbara - Lat 23.50 & Long 1200 nd
dla
Wheatbelt - cleared loam soil catchments He
Pt
Gold Fields - Leinster
Kimberley - Kalumburu
2
Kimberley - Halls Creek er
nst
1000 South West - Jarrah Forest catchments Lei

20-Year ARI Flow (m3/sec)

an nts
wm me
Ne tch
oil ca
ms
2
loa
100 ed
ear
ru - cl
mbu tbelt
Kalu k W hea
re e
sC
2 Hall
10 ils Newtown Dam - Kambalda
c so
riti
s -late
nt
me
tch
2 t ca
fo res
1 rrah
- Ja
est
th W
Sou
2

0.1

0.01 2 0.1 2 1 2 3 10 2 100 2 1000 2 10000 2

2
Catchment Area (km )

Figure 6: Comparison of the 20-year ARI design floods from WA regions.

100000
Pilbara - Lat 20.50 & Long 1200
Pilbara - Lat 21.50 & Long 1200
2 Plibara - Lat 22.50 & Long 1200
Pilbara - Lat 23.50 & Long 1200 nd
dla
10000 He
Wheatbelt - cleared loam soil catchments Pt
Gold Fields - Leinster
Kimberley - Kalumburu
Kimberley - Halls Creek
2
50-Year ARI Flow (m3/sec)

South West - Jarrah Forest catchments

er
1000 nst nts
Lei hme
an catc
m soil
Ne
w loam
2 red
clea
tbelt -
100 ru Wh
ea
mbu
Kalu
C reek
2 Halls
ils Newtown Dam - Kambalda
c so
10 riti
- late
s
ent
hm
c atc
est
2 for
rrah
1 - Ja
est
th W
Sou
2

0.1

0.01 2 0.1 2 1 2 3 10 2 100 2 1000 2 10000 2

2
Catchment Area (km )

Figure 7: Comparison of the 50-year ARI design floods from WA regions.

100000 Pilbara - Lat 20.50 & Long 1200

Pilbara - Lat 21.50 & Long 1200
Plibara - Lat 22.50 & Long 1200
Pilbara - Lat 23.50 & Long 1200 and
2 edl
Wheatbelt - cleared loam soil catchments Pt H
10000 Gold Fields - Leinster
Kimberley - Kalumburu
Kimberley - Halls Creek
100-Year ARI Flow (m3/sec)

South West - Jarrah Forest catchments

2
er ts
1000 nst men
Lei atch
s oil c
loam
ared
2
elt - cle
an eatb
100 wm Wh
mbu
ru Ne
Kalu
eek
s Cr
2
Hall soi
ls
Newtown Dam - Kambalda
ritic
10 late
s-
ent
chm
st cat
e
for
rah
2
Jar
st -
1 th We
Sou

0.1
0.01 2 0.1 2 1 2 3 10 2 100 2 1000 2 10000 2
1
2
Catchment Area (km )

Figure 8: Comparison of the 100-year ARI design floods from WA regions.

Australian Journal of Water Resources Vol 16 No 1

W11-865 Flavell.indd 15 14/08/12 10:20 AM

 16 “Design flood estimation in Western Australia” – Flavell
small to medium sized catchments will be affected
more by shorter duration rainfall and produce
relatively higher peak flows, whereas the difference
will be very much less for the larger catchments.
As the 24-hour rainfall at Kalumburu is larger and
antecedent wetness will be higher than that for Pt
Hedland, the magnitude of peak flows for the larger
catchments should be significantly greater than for Pt
Hedland. It would appear, therefore, that the gauging
data for the larger catchments in the higher rainfall
areas of the Kimberley underestimates the magnitude
of rarer flood events; this is probably the case for all
size catchments. Hence, any RFFP developed using
this data will underestimate peak flows for catchments
in the higher rainfall areas; that is adjacent to the coast.
8.1.2 Pt Hedland and Halls Creek
The difference between the 12-hour rainfalls for
Pt Hedland and Halls Creek is much less than for
Kalumburu. From a comparison of the rainfall data,
it could be expected that peak flows for smaller
catchments at Halls Creek would be slightly larger
for floods with ARIs of 20 years and possibly smaller
for floods with higher ARIs.
From the 24-hour rainfall, it would appear that flows
for larger catchments would be greater for Pt Hedland.
The plots of flow against catchment area given on
figures 6, 7 and 8 for Halls Creek generally agree
with the comments made above. It would appear,
therefore, that the regression equations developed
for the Kimberley are more applicable to inland
catchments where the rainfall is lower.
8.2 Wheatbelt Region
The plots for the Wheatbelt Region are flatter than
those for the Pilbara, Goldfields and southwest, and
become flatter with increase in ARI. This is due to the
increase in clearing with decrease in catchment area
and the large number of small cleared catchments
used to develop the RFFP; four of the 12-catchments
are very small and completely cleared. The effect of
these small catchments is to increase the flow from
the smaller catchments compared with the larger
catchments resulting in a decrease in the slope of the
plot of flow versus catchment area.
9 CONCLUSIONS
9.1 Streamflow data
The stream flow data in the north of Western Australia
leaves much to be desired. In particular, extrapolation
of the rating curves is suspect and the magnitude
of rarer flood events is generally underestimated.
Longer streamflow records will not necessarily
improve estimates of flood quantiles, as more major
Australian Journal of Water Resources
W11-865 Flavell.indd 16
flood events could be missing from the data sets or
the peak flows underestimated. Given the length of
record and quality of the available streamflow data,
a conservative approach is justified when developing
a regional flood frequency procedure.
It should be noted that the level of sophistication
and the accuracy of a RFFP is limited by the number,
spatial distribution and range of characteristics of
the gauged catchments, together with the accuracy
of the streamflow data. A conservative approach
has been adopted when developing the RFFPs
given in the previous sections of this paper and are
considered the best that can be achieved with the
available data. However, flows for rarer flood events
estimated using these procedures should be treated
with caution.
9.2 RFFPs
9.2.1 Pilbara Region
A RFFP was developed for the Pilbara in 2000 and
redeveloped in 2006 using the additional streamflow
data available at that time. However, the average
length of record of the gauged catchments only
increased by approximately 3 years, because a large
number of the stream gauges had been closed.
The year 2000 version of the RFFP has higher
coefficients of determination and lower standard
errors of estimate, and gives higher peak flows
above the 10-year level than the later version. This
was attributed to the closure of some gauges while
others were still recording, together with the possible
inclusion of a greater number of underestimated
floods or missing flood events in the records of the
gauges that were still operating. Hence, the 2000
version of the RFFP is recommended for use in the
Pilbara rather than the 2006 version.
The recommended RFFP is applicable to all
catchments typical of those found in the Pilbara.
It has been adopted for the design of almost all of
the major infrastructure projects undertaken by Rio
Tinto, BHP Billiton and Fortescue Metals Group
during the last 13 years.
Waterway structures designed using the RFFP
have experienced a number of major rainfall events
associated with tropical cyclones and passed floods
with ARIs of the order of 30 years without damage.
Whenever possible the RFFP has been checked
against flows estimated from flood debris levels and
recorded rainfall data and found to give estimates
of the right order of magnitude. It has also been
compared with flows estimated independently by
other bodies and found to give similar flood flows; for
example the Department of the Environment (now
Department of Water) carried out an Extreme Flood
Study of the Harding Dam in 2004 and estimated
the 100-year peak flow into the dam as 5730 m3/s
compared with 5247 m3/s given by the RFFP.
Vol 16 No 1
14/08/12 10:20 AM
 “Design flood estimation in Western Australia” – Flavell
9.2.2 Kimberley Region
The spatial distribution of the gauged catchments
in the Kimberley Region is poor with no suitable
gauged catchments in the west Kimberley. The rating
curves for the available gauging stations have all
been extrapolated from small flows; extrapolation
for almost all the gauges is above a flow with an ARI
of less than 2 years.
Comparison of the rainfall data for Kalumburu and Pt
Hedland indicates that the regression equations given
in section 5.2.1 will significantly underestimates floods
in the higher rainfall areas adjacent to the coast. The
regression equations appear to be more applicable
to inland areas where the rainfall is lower. However,
given the poor quality of data on which the regression
equations are based, they should be used with caution.
9.2.3 Wheatbelt Region
The RFFP given in section 6.4 is recommended
for estimating design floods for loam soil cleared
catchments in the Wheatbelt. The procedure is based
on streamflow data with about twice the length of
record of that used to develop the methods in ARR1987
and should give better estimates of flood flows.
It should be noted that the new RFFP is applicable to
catchments with clearing between 75% and 100% and
will overestimate flows from uncleared catchments. It
will also underestimate flows from steep catchments.
The RFFP should be applicable to all catchments
within the Wheatbelt as indicated by the location of
the catchment centroids given in section 6.2.
9.2.4 Goldfields – Leinster area
A flood estimation procedure was developed using
the very limited available streamflow data and
on-site observation. The streamflow data comprised
13 years of record for the stream which flows through
West Kambalda into the Newtown Dam.
The approach adopted comprised fitting a probability
distribution to the Newtown Dam streamflow data,
constructing a RORB model of the catchment and the
estimation of PLRs for the 2- to 100-year flood peaks
through a trial and error fitting procedure. These loss
rates were then modified to conservatively give loss
rates for the Leinster area taking into account mean
annual rainfall, soil types and vegetation. RORB
models were then constructed for 12 catchments in
the Leinster area and design storms applied to these
catchments with the selected PLRs to give the 2- to
Australian Journal of Water Resources
W11-865 Flavell.indd 17
17
100-year flood quantiles. Regression analysis was then
carried out to provide a flood frequency procedure.
The flood frequency procedures given in section 7.5
are recommended for estimating design floods in the
Leinster area. Selection of the appropriate procedure
will depend upon the availability of sufficient
topographic data to estimate the equivalent uniform
slope of a catchment.
REFERENCES
David Flavell Pty Ltd, 2006, “Robe River Flood Study
and Bridge Waterway Review”, Robe River Mining
Company, Mesa A Project.
David Flavell Pty Ltd, 2011, “Design Flood Estimation
in Western Australia”.
Department of Environment (now Department of
Water), 2004, “Harding Dam Extreme Flood Study”.
Flavell, D. J., Belstead, B. S., Chivers, B. & Walker,
M. C. 1983, “Runoff Routing Model Parameters
for Catchments in Western Australia”, Hydrology
and Water Resources Symposium 1983, Institution of
Engineers Australia National Conference Publication
83/13.
Hosking, J. R. M. & Wallis, J. R. 1990, “Regional
Flood Frequency Analysis Using L-Moments”, Res.
Paper RC15658, IBM Research, Yorktown Heights,
New York.
Hosking, J. R. M. & Wallis, J. R. 1993, “Some Statistics
Useful in Regional Flood Frequency Analysis”, Water
Resources, Vol. 29, No. 2, pp. 105-124.
Hosking, J. R. M. & Wallis, J. R. 1997, Regional Flood
Frequency Analysis: An Approach Based on L-Moments,
Cambridge University Press.
Institution of Engineers, Australia (IEAust), 1987,
Australian Rainfall and Runoff, Canberra, ACT.
Laurenson, E. M. & Mein, R. G. 1992, RORB – Version
4 Runoff Routing Program, User Manual, Monash
University, Melbourne.
Nathan, R. 2007, RORBwin Version 6, program
developed by R Nathan of SKM based on the original
RORB code developed by Eric Laurenson and Russel
Mein of Monash University.
Vol 16 No 1
14/08/12 10:20 AM
 APPENDIX
18

W11-865 Flavell.indd 18
Table A1: Kimberley Region assessment of gauging stations.
Rating ARI (years)
Gauging Closure Record A L Se Longitude Latitude R2410 R2420 Q10 Q20 Q20/A
L2/A Q20/Q10 extrapolation for of maximum Include
station date (years) (km2) (km) (m/km) (°) (°) (mm) (mm) (m3/s) (m3/s) (m3/s/km2)
higher flows gauged data
Doubtful quality,
Closed needs appraisal
806003 25# 66.5 16.81 11.64 4.25 125.7785 –14.5419 237.3 285.0 678 854 1.26 12.8 <2 Yes
1/1999 Extrapolation from
3
40 to 1400 m /s
Doubtful quality,

Australian Journal of Water Resources

Closed needs appraisal
803003 30 66.7 16.96 7.75 4.31 125.0391 –17.0881 177.7 214.0 340 418 1.23 6.3 <2 Yes
8/1999 Extrapolation from
60 to 5200 m3/s
Doubtful quality,
Closed needs appraisal
803002 31 443.4 50.56 3.40 5.77 125.3383 –17.2289 160.3 189.9 891 1087 1.22 2.5 <2 Yes
8/1999 Extrapolation from
3
60 to 1400 m /s
Doubtful quality,
Closed needs appraisal
809317 27# 450.5 38.54 2.60 3.30 127.6462 –18.3485 128.8 153.9 859 1032 1.20 2.3 <2 Yes
7/2001 Extrapolation from
500 to 2500 m3/s
Reasonable quality,
809310 33 549.6 49.63 2.67 4.48 127.4421 –17.4223 146.0 171.4 903 1116 1.24 2.0 Yes
HEC-RAS used
Doubtful quality,
needs appraisal
809314 19 849.9 76.04 2.22 6.80 128.1812 –15.9433 159.7 190.8 1168 1539 1.32 1.8 <2 Yes
Extrapolation from
280 to 3400 m3/s
Doubtful quality,
needs appraisal
“Design flood estimation in Western Australia” – Flavell

803001 37 1051.9 90.51 2.98 7.79 125.2526 –17.2560 161.3 190.7 1668 2115 1.27 2.0 <2 Yes
Extrapolation from
3
50 to 3800 m /s
Doubtful quality,
Closed needs appraisal
806004 26# 1271.7 104.78 2.72 8.63 126.6313 –15.1452 187.4 221.5 1449 1937 1.34 1.5 <2 Yes
10/2000 Extrapolation from
130 to 2700 m3/s
Doubtful quality,
Closed needs appraisal
806005 25 1338.4 71.74 2.57 3.84 126.3673 –14.9906 198.9 237.7 867 1141 1.32 0.9 <2
7/1999 Extrapolation from
3
126 to 1800 m /s

Vol 16 No 1
Doubtful quality,
Closed needs appraisal
806001 27# 1578.1 64.94 1.93 2.67 125.8520 –15.1303 203.1 239.6 1572 1837 1.17 1.2 <2
7/1999 Extrapolation from
380 to 2800 m3/s

14/08/12 10:20 AM
 Doubtful quality,
needs appraisal
809321 28 1624.9 104.53 2.08 6.72 128.0433 –16.3923 152.5 181.3 1289 1686 1.31 1.0 <2 Yes

W11-865 Flavell.indd 19
Extrapolation from
400 to 3400 m3/s
Reasonable quality,
Closed HEC-RAS used
806006 23 1632.3 110.59 2.16 7.49 126.1319 –15.1559 209.2 251.8 939 1196 1.27 0.7
10/2000 Q20 lower than
809321?
Doubtful quality,
needs appraisal
804001 26# 1830.0 98.51 1.85 5.30 125.6354 –16.8272 162.6 194.8 1032 1340 1.30 0.7 <2
Extrapolation from
90 to 2000 m3/s
Doubtful quality,
Closed needs appraisal

Australian Journal of Water Resources

809304 13 2788.0 145.75 2.65 7.62 127.7763 –16.9357 148.7 176.0 117 1439 1.29 0.5 <2
10/1979 Extrapolation from
200 to 1600 m3/s
Doubtful quality,
Closed needs appraisal
808001 29 4103.2 147.84 1.50 5.33 127.0731 –16.8206 154.5 183.6 1325 1722 1.30 0.4 <2
10/2000 Extrapolation from
500 to 3800 m3/s
Doubtful quality,
needs appraisal
802213 37 5103.5 151.80 1.44 4.52 126.1964 –16.5685 158.7 188.9 5171 6939 1.34 1.4 <2 Yes
Extrapolation from
250 to 5000 m3/s
Reasonable quality,
802202 32# 5120.7 170.15 1.50 5.65 126.7939 –17.8145 140.3 165.2 4442 6119 1.38 1.2 Yes
HEC-RAS used
Doubtful quality,
needs appraisal
802198 38 7736.1 195.55 1.32 4.94 127.1318 –18.5153 128.4 153.5 5112 6868 1.34 0.9 <2
Extrapolation from
500 to 12000 m3/s
Doubtful quality,
“Design flood estimation in Western Australia” – Flavell

needs appraisal
809315 33 7789.1 159.82 1.74 3.28 129.5350 –17.4219 144.7 172.7 3749 4975 1.33 0.6 <2 Yes
Extrapolation from
1986 to 8700 m3/s
Doubtful quality,
Closed needs appraisal
807001 20# 13717.5 302.96 1.46 6.69 126.5604 –15.6257 172.9 203.6 1499 1875 1.25 0.1 <2
10/2000 Extrapolation from
199 to 2640 m3/s
Doubtful quality,
needs appraisal
802137 41 17185.7 307.97 1.37 5.52 126.2706 –17.0619 153.7 182.1 5488 6983 1.27 0.4 <2 Yes
Extrapolation from
1500 to 12000 m3/s
19

Vol 16 No 1
Reasonable quality,
802203 18 18855.0 222.43 1.08 2.62 126.9588 –18.1795 161.3 190.7 6274 8353 1.33 0.4 Yes
HEC-RAS used
# Numerous breaks in record

14/08/12 10:20 AM
 20 “Design flood estimation in Western Australia” – Flavell

DAVID FLAVELL

David Flavell is a consulting engineer with 40 years’ experience in the hydrology

of Western Australia, and the investigation and design of drainage structures.
He qualified as a civil engineer in 1961 under the auspices of the Institution of
Civil Engineers (UK) while studying at Battersea College of Technology, London.
After gaining graduate membership of the Institution of Civil Engineers, he was
employed for 10 years by consulting engineers in the United Kingdom, Middle
East and Central America. In 1971 he emigrated to Australia and joined the
West Australian Main Roads Department, initially as the Investigation Engineer
(Bridges) and later as the Rural Bridge Engineer. In 1995 he left the Main Roads
Department and set himself up as a consulting engineer. Since this time he has
been closely involved in the major mining expansion projects constructed in the
north of Western Australia. David is a past member of the National Committee
on Water Engineering and was a member of the Advisory Panel for the 1987
revision of Australian Rainfall and Runoff. He is the author of a number of
papers on design flood estimation and bridge scour, and the originator of the
methods of design flood estimation recommended for Western Australia in the
1987 version of Australian Rainfall and Runoff. He was the Project Manager and
Technical Editor for the Austroads Waterways Design Manual.

Australian Journal of Water Resources Vol 16 No 1

W11-865 Flavell.indd 20 14/08/12 10:20 AM