ITC – BUY

11 December 2019

Tobacco tax rate hike not a certainty Company update

CMP  Rs241 Price performance (%)
As states’ GST collections fall short, there is an urgent need to  

hike GST rates. In expectation of a rate hike on tobacco, ITC stock 12‐mth TP (Rs)     295 (22%) 1M 3M  1Y 
has corrected 23% from its recent peak in April 2019 and 7% in Absolute (Rs)  (7.3) (1.6)  (11.9) 
Market cap (US$m)    41,395
the past one month. However, the hole in collections is too gaping Absolute (US$)       (7.0) (0.7)  (10.5) 
to fill via increasing compensation cess; a broad-based rate hike is Enterprise value(US$m)  40,774
Rel. to Sensex  (7.7) (10.6)  (25.4) 
required. Moreover, with price elasticity of cigarettes eroded, it is Bloomberg   ITC IN
possible that a rate hike in cigarettes may actually impair, rather Cagr (%)  3 yrs  5 yrs 
than boost, government revenue. Since government decisions are Sector  FMCG EPS  9.9  6.7 
not always rational, a rate hike in cigarettes cannot be ruled out;    

Shareholding pattern (%)  Stock performance 
but the likelihood may be lower than what the market is factoring
in. Maintain BUY; TP: Rs295. Promoter  0.0 Vol('000, LHS) Price (Rs., RHS)
Pledged (as % of promoter share)  0.0 100,000 400
Cigarette cess is small fry: ITC will pay ~Rs267bn of compensation FII  15.6 80,000 300
cess and ~Rs324bn in total indirect tax in FY20 which is a large part of DII  42.4 60,000
the total compensation cess pool of Rs900bn. However, with slowdown in 200
   

52Wk High/Low (Rs)  310/234 40,000

GST revenue growth, we estimate that the shortfall in state revenues 20,000 100
Shares o/s (m)  12290
could be as large as Rs1trn, over and above the compensation cess. 0 0
Therefore, increase in compensation cess is no longer enough and a rate Daily volume (US$ m)  56.0

Dec‐17

Jun‐18

Oct‐18
Dec‐18

Jun‐19

Oct‐19
Dec‐19
Feb‐18
Apr‐18

Aug‐18

Feb‐19
Apr‐19

Aug‐19
hike across a larger bunch of commodities is being mulled. A 10% Dividend yield FY21ii (%)  3.2
increase in cigarette taxation will result in only 3% of the shortfall being Free float (%)  100.0  
filled, even under the unrealistic assumption of no volume backlash. Financial summary (Rs bn)
Y/e 31 Mar, Consolidated  FY18A FY19A FY20ii FY21ii  FY22ii 
Price elasticity eroded: FY04-14 price elasticity was -0.58 (i.e. for Revenues (Rs bn)  431 478 522 580 644
every 100bps price rise, volume dipped 58bps). But thereafter, price
Ebitda margins (%)  38.2 38.5 38.5 38.9 39.2
elasticity has changed to -0.96. We believe with the consumption
Pre‐exceptional PAT (Rs bn)  110 126 153 171 192
environment weakening even further, price elasticity would worsen to -1
Reported PAT (Rs bn)  113 126 153 171 192
or higher. Since part of tobacco taxation is on per-stick, it is likely to lead
to government revenue remaining unchanged or being adversely affected. Pre‐exceptional EPS (Rs)  9.0 10.2 12.4 13.9 15.6
Growth (%)  6.3 14.0 21.6 12.0 11.9
Mispricing of risk: While cigarette rate being hiked along with other IIFL vs consensus (%)  (0.1) 1.1 1.2
products is still possible, it is not a near certainty, which is what the PER (x)  26.9 23.6 19.4 17.3 15.5
market seems to be pricing in. A nil-to-moderate tax hike will remove the ROE (%)  22.2 22.6 24.5 24.7 25.0
event risk on the stock. The case for a high-tax hike is weak, given the Net debt/equity (x)  (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) (0.2) (0.2)
lack of revenue-generating potential and a resultant surge in demand for EV/Ebitda (x)  17.6 15.7 14.2 12.5 11.0
illegal cigarettes. At 17x FY21 EPS, ITC is among the cheapest consumer Price/book (x)  5.6 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.7
stocks, trading at ~30% discount to its 10-year average. OCF/Ebitda (x)  0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7  0.7 
Source: Company, IIFL Research. Priced as on 09 December 2019 

Percy Panthaki | percy.panthaki@iiflcap.com Avi Mehta, CFA | avi.mehta@iiflcap.com Sameer Gupta | sameer.gupta@iiflcap.com
91 22 4646 4662 91 22 4646 4650 91 22 4646 4672
 ITC – BUY

Shortfall to states is huge
We estimate that the shortfall to states’ revenues is approximately
Rs1trillion.
• In July, the Centre released Rs280bn to the states as compensation
cess for June and July, i.e. Rs140bn per month.
• The average monthly cess collection is Rs78bn; the payment was
almost double this, implying that on a monthly basis Rs62bn is the
shortfall in state collection, over and above what is available in
terms of compensation cess.
• On an annual basis, this works out to be Rs744bn.
• The economy has further slowed after July and, therefore, the
current annual run-rate of the shortfall might be close to Rs1trn.
Tobacco taxation, a small part
For FY20, we calculate ITC will pay a total indirect tax of Rs324bn to the
government, of which Rs267bn is earmarked as compensation cess.
We can add ~15% to the above numbers to arrive at the overall
contribution from the cigarette industry.
If tax is raised by 10%, we would then see an increase of Rs31bn to the
compensation cess, and a total of Rs37bn even under the unrealistic
assumption of no volume backlash. This is only ~3% of the gaping hole
which is being sought to fill.
Larger measures will be required
Even after the probable annual compensation cess collection of
Rs900bn, from all sources, the likely shortfall in state collection would
be ~Rs1trn. The shortfall cannot be redeemed by increasing
compensation cess and, therefore, rate increase on a wider range of
products is being contemplated.
News reports suggest that items at 5% GST rate could move up to 8%
and some items in the 12% bucket could move up to 18%.

Figure 1: ITC to pay a total of Rs324bn as indirect tax in FY20  Price elasticity of cigarettes has worsened

FY20 Due to weak consumer sentiment and high tax increases over FY14-17,
Volumes (m sticks)  78,644  price elasticity of cigarettes has changed.
ASP (Rs) (gross of all taxes, net of trade margins)   6.8 
Blended specific cess per stick (Rs)   2.8 
Overall specific cess (Rs m)   222,032 
GST rate (%)  28.0%
Total GST @ 28% (Rs m)  48,138 
Blended ad ‐ valorem cess rate (%)  25.6%
Blended ad‐valorem cess (Rs m)  44,863 
Excise duty per stick (Rs)  0.113 
Excise duty (Rs)  8,847 
Total compensation cess (Rs m)   266,894 
Total indirect tax (Rs m)   323,880 
Source: Company, IIFL Research 

percy. panth a k i@iif lcap. com 2

 ITC – BUY

Figure 2:  Volume and price equation – FY04‐14  Figure 3:  Volume and price equation – FY014‐19

10% 8%
y = ‐0.5777x + 0.0953 y = ‐0.9582x + 0.0722
8% R² = 0.7684 6% R² = 0.9251
4%
Volume growth

Volume growth
6%
2%
4% 0%
2% ‐2%
‐4%
0%
‐6%
‐2% ‐8%
‐4% ‐10%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Price growth Price growth
Source: Company, IIFL Research  Source: Company, IIFL Research 

• For the FY04-14 period, the slope of the curve was -0.58, i.e. for Risk of hike is mispriced
every 100bps price increase, volume declined by 58bps. The current stock price seems to be pricing-in a fairly high tax hike,
• However, for FY14-19, the slope of the curve has shifted to -0.96, with a substantially high level of certainty. This may not happen, as:
i.e. for every 100bps price increase, volume has declined 96bps.
• The government and bureaucrats have many large items to worry
about and cigarettes, which may not add material revenue, may not
We believe that with further worsening of consumer sentiment, the
be the priority.
slope of the curve would be -1 or higher. This means that if the
government hikes rates, its revenue collection may remain unchanged, • Even if there is a tax hike (if a lot of items are being hiked,
or actually be adversely affected. cigarettes may well be one among them), there is no reason to
believe that it will be a steep one because:
Figure 4: Govt. collections unlikely to materially increase, irrespective of rate hikes   A steep hike is unlikely to yield higher revenue than no or low
hike
Change in government revenue vs  Cess hike   Illegal cigarette menace will increase if legal cigarettes become
base case of ‘no rate hike’  5% 10% 20% more expensive
‐0.8  2% 2% 5% In conclusion
Volume elasticity  ‐1.0  1% 1% 1% This note does not rule out a tax hike or even state that it has an
‐1.2  0% ‐1% ‐2% extremely low probability. But it does dispute conventional wisdom
Source: Company, IIFL Research  that it is a near certainty.

A nil or moderate tax hike may result in an increase in the ITC stock
price, as the event risk will abate.

percy. panth a k i@iif lcap. com 3

 Company snapshot
ITC – BUY

Background: ITC is one of India's foremost private sector companies with a diversified presence in FMCG, Hotels, Paperboards & Specialty Papers,
Packaging, Agri-Business, and Information Technology. While ITC is a market leader in its traditional businesses of Cigarettes, Hotels, Paperboards,
Packaging and Agri-Exports, it is rapidly gaining market share even in its nascent business of FMCG. ITC has a market share of 80% in cigarettes and
features iconic brands like “Gold Flake” and ”Kings Classic”, while also operating hotels under the “Welcome” and “Fortune” brands. ITC is master in
developing FMCG brands from scratch and has developed brands like Sunfeast (Biscuits), Bingo (Chips), Yippee (Noodles) and Aashirvaad (Flour).

Management
Net sales mix - FY19
Name  Designation  Cigarette volume growth (%)
8%
Sanjeev Puri  Chairman and MD  Hotels
FMCG  4% Agri  6%
Sandeep Kaul  Head (India tobacco division)  26% Business 4%
Source: Company  13% 2%
0%
Paperboa ‐2%
   rds ‐4%
9% ‐6%
  
    Cigarette ‐8%
    s Others ‐10%
44% 4% FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

Assumptions PER Chart EV/Ebitda

Y/e 31 Mar, Consolidated  FY18A  FY19A  FY20ii  FY21ii FY22ii 12m fwd EV/EBITDA Avg  +/‐ 1SD
12m fwd PE Avg  +/‐ 1SD
Cigarette volume growth  (2.0) 6.5 3.0 1.0 1.0
(% YoY)  27.0
Cigarette price growth (%  10.0 2.9 3.5 8.0 8.0 37.0 (x) (x)
24.0
YoY)  33.0
21.0
Cigarette EBIT  (%)  56.9 67.3 68.4 69.9 71.4 29.0
18.0
Other FMCG gross revenue  7.8 10.4 7.0 15.0 15.0 25.0
growth (% YoY)  15.0
21.0
Source: Company, IIFL Research  12.0
17.0
9.0
13.0
6.0
9.0
Apr‐08 Aug‐10 Nov‐12 Apr‐15 Jul‐17 Nov‐19
Apr‐08 Aug‐10 Nov‐12 Apr‐15 Jul‐17 Nov‐19
 

percy. panth a k i@iif lcap. com 4

 ITC – BUY

Financial summary
Income statement summary (Rs bn)  Balance sheet summary (Rs bn)
Y/e 31 Mar, Consolidated FY18A  FY19A FY20ii FY21ii FY22ii Y/e 31 Mar, Consolidated FY18A FY19A FY20ii FY21ii  FY22ii 
Revenues  431  478 522 580 644 Cash & cash equivalents 39 57 97 136 184
Ebitda  165  184 201 226 252 Inventories  75 79 86 94 104
Depreciation and amortisation (12)  (14) (16) (18) (20) Receivables  27 40 44 49 54
Ebit  152  170 185 208 232 Other current assets 56 52 53 55 57
Non‐operating income 18  22 26 29 32 Creditors  93 100 110 121 133
Financial expense  (1)  0 (1) (1) (1) Other current liabilities 2 2 2 2 2
PBT  170  191 211 236 264 Net current assets 102 125 168 212 264
Exceptionals  4  0 0 0 0 Fixed assets  225 239 256 273 289
Reported PBT  174  191 211 236 264 Intangibles  0 0 0 0 0
Tax expense  (59)  (63) (55) (61) (69) Investments  221 250 263 276 289
PAT  115  128 156 175 195 Other long‐term assets (19) (20) (23) (26) (30)
Minorities, Associates etc. (2)  (2) (3) (3) (4) Total net assets 529 595 665 734 812
Attributable PAT  113  126 153 171 192 Borrowings  0 0 0 0 0
Other long‐term liabilities 3 3 4 4  5 
Ratio analysis  Shareholders’ equity 525 591 661 730  807 
Y/e 31 Mar, Consolidated FY18A  FY19A FY20ii FY21ii FY22ii Total liabilities 529 595 665 734  812 
Per share data (Rs)     

Pre‐exceptional EPS  9.0  10.2 12.4 13.9 15.6 Cash flow summary (Rs bn) 

DPS  5.2  5.8 7.0 7.8 8.8 Y/e 31 Mar, Consolidated FY18A FY19A FY20ii FY21ii  FY22ii 
BVPS  43.1  48.4 54.0 59.7 66.0 Ebit 152 170 185 208 232 
Growth ratios (%)    Tax paid  (59) (62) (52) (58) (65) 
Revenues  1.8  10.9 9.2 11.1 11.0 Depreciation and amortisation 12 14 16 18 20 
Ebitda  6.8  11.7 9.2 12.2 11.9 Net working capital change 10 (6) (3) (4) (4) 
EPS  6.3  14.0 21.6 12.0 11.9 Other operating items 0 0 0 0 0 
Profitability ratios (%)   Operating cash flow before interest 116 116 146 164 183 
Ebitda margin  38.2  38.5 38.5 38.9 39.2 Financial expense (1) 0 (1) (1) (1) 
Ebit margin  35.4  35.6 35.5 35.8 36.1 Non‐operating income 22 22 26 29 32 
Tax rate  34.0  33.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 Operating cash flow after interest 138 138 172 192 215 
Net profit margin  26.6  26.8 29.9 30.1 30.3 Capital expenditure (30) (28) (33) (34) (36) 
Return ratios (%)    Long‐term investments (45) (30) (12) (13) (14) 
ROE  22.2  22.6 24.5 24.7 25.0 Others  0 0 0 0 0 
ROCE  34.3  34.1 33.5 33.8 34.2 Free cash flow 63 80 127 144  165 
Solvency ratios (x)    Equity raising  15 13 (3) (3)  (4) 
Net debt‐equity  (0.1)  (0.1) (0.1) (0.2) (0.2) Borrowings  0 0 0 0  0 
Net debt to Ebitda  (0.2)  (0.3) (0.5) (0.6) (0.7) Dividend  (69) (75) (84) (102)  (114) 
Interest coverage  NM  NM NM NM NM Net chg in cash and equivalents 10 18 40 40  48 
Source: Company, IIFL Research  Source: Company, IIFL Research 

percy. panth a k i@iif lcap. com 5

 ITC – BUY

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percy. panth a k i@iif lcap. com 6

 ITC – BUY

A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at http://www.nseindia.com/ChartApp/install/charts/mainpage.jsp, www.bseindia.com and http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/stock-quotes.
(Choose a company from the list on the browser and select the “three years” period in the price chart).

Name, Qualification and Certification of Research Analyst: Percy Panthaki(Chartered Accountant), Avi Mehta, CFA(PGDBM), Sameer Gupta(PGPM)

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Key to our recommendation structure

BUY - Stock expected to give a return 10%+ more than average return on a debt instrument over a 1-year horizon.

SELL - Stock expected to give a return 10%+ below the average return on a debt instrument over a 1-year horizon.

Add - Stock expected to give a return 0-10% over the average return on a debt instrument over a 1-year horizon.

Reduce - Stock expected to give a return 0-10% below the average return on a debt instrument over a 1-year horizon.

Distribution of Ratings: Out of 226 stocks rated in the IIFL coverage universe, 100 have BUY ratings, 8 have SELL ratings, 85 have ADD ratings and 32 have REDUCE ratings

Price Target: Unless otherwise stated in the text of this report, target prices in this report are based on either a discounted cash flow valuation or comparison of valuation ratios with companies seen by the analyst as
comparable or a combination of the two methods. The result of this fundamental valuation is adjusted to reflect the analyst’s views on the likely course of investor sentiment. Whichever valuation method is used there
is a significant risk that the target price will not be achieved within the expected timeframe. Risk factors include unforeseen changes in competitive pressures or in the level of demand for the company’s products. Such
demand variations may result from changes in technology, in the overall level of economic activity or, in some cases, in fashion. Valuations may also be affected by changes in taxation, in exchange rates and, in
certain industries, in regulations. Investment in overseas markets and instruments such as ADRs can result in increased risk from factors such as exchange rates, exchange controls, taxation, and political and social
conditions. This discussion of valuation methods and risk factors is not comprehensive – further information is available upon request.

Date Close price Target price Rating Date Close price Target price Rating
ITC: 3 year price and rating history (Rs) (Rs)
(Rs) (Rs)
(Rs) Price TP/Reco changed date 25 Oct 2019 249 295 BUY 30 Oct 2017 269 305 ADD
400 06 Sep 2019 244 300 BUY 18 Jul 2017 325 335 ADD
350 05 Aug 2019 265 320 BUY 03 Jul 2017 324 370 BUY
300
250 14 May 2019 289 350 BUY 15 May 2017 275 350 BUY
200 24 Jan 2019 278 335 BUY 20 Mar 2017 281 330 BUY
150 15 Nov 2018 276 325 ADD 02 Feb 2017 270 285 ADD
100 19 Oct 2018 286 330 ADD 05 Jan 2017 245 265 ADD
50 27 Jul 2018 287 335 ADD
0 17 May 2018 286 320 ADD
Dec‐16
Feb‐17
Apr‐17
Jun‐17
Aug‐17
Oct‐17
Dec‐17
Feb‐18
Apr‐18
Jun‐18
Aug‐18
Oct‐18
Dec‐18
Feb‐19
Apr‐19
Jun‐19
Aug‐19
Oct‐19
Dec‐19

02 Feb 2018 276 305 ADD

17 Jan 2018 262 295 ADD
28 Nov 2017 261 285 ADD

percy. panth a k i@iif lcap. com 7