Jo Ann Maglasang Petancio, MAEd Mathematics

Student Teaching Mentor

Cebu Normal University
 Attendance
 Signing of Syllabus
 Returning of Problem Sets 1 & 2 (Please compile these in a long white folder with
plastic cover.)
 Review
 Simulation of Discrete Probabilities
 Simulation Activity
DEFINITION
 -is a group of objects where the
composition of the group, not the
order is important
VERSUS PERMUTATION (VIDEO)
 With permutations, every little detail
matters. Alice, Bob and Charlie is
different from Charlie, Bob and Alice
(insert your friends’ names here).
 Combinations, on the other hand, are
pretty easy going. The details don’t
matter. Alice, Bob and Charlie is the
same as Charlie, Bob and Alice.
 Permutations are for lists (order
matters) and combinations are for
groups (order doesn’t matter).
THEOREM
 The number of combinations of n
distinct objects taken r at a time is
SIMPLY PUT
If we want to figure out how many
combinations we have, we just create
all the permutations and divide by all
the redundancies.

Combinations sound simpler than

permutations, and they are. You have
fewer combinations than
permutations.
THEOREM
 The number of ways the partitioning a
set of n objects into r cells with n1
elements in the first cell, n2 elements
in the second, and so on, is
 nCn1, n2…nr=
  C) how many outcomes have at most
EXAMPLE 10 2 tails?
 Suppose an experiment consists of  Case 1: 2 tails 8C2 = 28
tossing a fair coin 8 times.  Case 2: 1 tail 8C1 = 8
 A) how many different outcomes are  Case 3: no tail 8C0 = 1
possible?
 At most 2 tails 37
 (2)(2)(2)(2)(2)(2)(2)(2) = 256  D) How many outcomes have at least
 B) how many different outcomes have 3 tails?
exactly 3 tails?  Backdoor approach: complement of at
most 2 tails
 8C3 = 56
 = 256 – 37 = 219
 Rolling die and the possible outcomes are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
corresponding to the side that turns up
 Tossing a coin with possible outcomes, H (heads) and T
(tails)
 An expression whose value is the outcome of a particular
experiment
 Can take on different values
 Example:
Let X be a random variable which represents the roll of a die.
 Each outcome 𝜔𝑗 is being assigned with a nonnegative
number 𝑚(𝜔𝑗 ) in such a way that
𝑚 𝜔1 + 𝑚 𝜔2 + ⋯ + 𝑚 𝜔6 = 1.
 The function 𝑚(𝜔𝑗 ) is called the distribution function of
the random variable X.
 Example:
For the case of the roll of the die, equal probabilities or
probabilities 1/6 is assigned to each of the outcomes.
 For the experiment of rolling a die and determining the probability of
obtaining a value which does not exceed 4:
𝟐
𝑷 𝑿≤𝟒 =
𝟑
The probability is 2/3 that a roll of a die will have a value which
does not exceed 4.
Since
P(X=1) = 1/6
P(X=2) = 1/6
P(X=3) = 1/6
P(X=4) = 1/6.
 If we have a probability p that an experiment will result in
outcome A, then if we repeat this experiment a large
number of times we should expect that the fraction of
times that A will occur is about p.
 Example:
If a drug is found to be effective 30% of the times it is used,
we must assign a probability .3 that the drug is effective the
next time it is used and .7 that it is not effective.
 A way to model random events, such that simulated
outcomes closely match real-world outcomes
 Used since some situations do not lend themselves to
precise mathematical treatment
 May approximate real-world results yet require less time,
effort and/or money than other approaches
 Four horses (Acorn, Balky, Chestnut, and Dolby) have raced
many times. It is estimated that Acorn wins 30 percent of
the time, Balky 40 percent of the time, Chestnut 20 percent
of the time, and Dolby 10 percent of the time.
 Simulate the outcome of 300 races.
 Label the excel file with your family name and initial of your first name.
Petancio,JA.xlsx
 Send to joannmpetancio@gmail.com.
1) In Las Vegas, a roulette wheel has 38 slots numbered 0,
00, 1, 2, . . . , 36. The 0 and 00 slots are green and half of
the remaining 36 slots are red and half are black. A croupier
spins the wheel and throws in an ivory ball. If you bet 1
dollar on red, you win 1 dollar if the ball stops in a red slot
and otherwise you lose 1 dollar. Write a program to find the
total winnings for a player who makes 1000 bets on red.
2) In an upcoming national election for the President of the
United States, a pollster plans to predict the winner of the
popular vote by taking a random sample of 1000 voters and
declaring that the winner will be the one obtaining the most votes
in his sample. Suppose that 40 percent of the voters plan to vote
for the Republican candidate and 60 percent plan to vote for the
Democratic candidate. To get some idea of how reasonable the
pollster’s plan is, write a program to make this prediction by
simulation. Repeat the simulation 100 times and see how many
times the pollster’s prediction would come true. Repeat your
experiment, assuming now that 60 percent of the population plan
to vote for the Republican candidate; first with a sample of 1000
and then with a sample of 3000.