Water Demand Projection in Distribution Systems Using A Novel Scenario Planning Approach PDF

Water Demand Projection in Distribution Systems using a Novel
Scenario Planning Approach
Marta Sofia Ferreira Cabral
Thesis to obtain the Master of Science Degree in
Environmental Engineering
Supervisors: Prof. Dídia Isabel Cameira Covas and Dr. Dália Susana dos Santos da Cruz
Loureiro
Examination Committee
Chairperson: Prof. José Manuel de Saldanha Gonçalves Matos

Supervisor: Prof. Dídia Isabel Cameira Covas
Members of the Committee: Prof. Maria da Conceição Esperança Amado
Prof. Helena Margarida Machado da Silva Ramos
May 2014
ABSTRACT
The aim of the current thesis is the development and testing of a comprehensive methodology to project
water demand in distribution systems for short, medium and long-terms, based on the Scenario Planning
Approach. Most of existing studies intended to predict the water demand for a short temporal horizon
(hours or days) through the analysis of historical data, considering that the future is very similar to the past.
This work aims to consider several temporal horizons and to introduce the trends and uncertainties
associated to the future in the construction of water demand scenarios.
The proposed methodology is composed of the following modules: 1. Scope definition, 2. Scenario
characterization and 3. Scenario construction. The methodology is applied to District Meter Areas (DMA)
distributed by several regions of Portugal to the construction of water demand scenarios in the short
(1 year) and long-term (20 years), including the projections of the demand variables and daily demand
patterns. The methodology for the processing and analysis of consumption data, developed by Loureiro
(2010) and improved by Mamade (2013), is adapted in this work to obtain the demand prediction and
classification models in DMA, according to the more significant explanatory variables.
This work allows the improvement of the demand prediction model proposed in previous works, by
incorporating a new explanatory variable: the temperature. This variable influences the consumption,
rd th
mainly when public billed consumption and the domestic consumption in the 3 and 4 billing class are
high. Furthermore, the construction of water demand scenarios in different temporal horizons, considering
the trends and uncertainties associated to the future constitute the main novel contributions of this work. It
allows providing useful information to promote a more efficient use of water resources as well as to ensure
the sustainability of water distribution systems in the short, medium and long-terms.
Keywords: water demand projection, Scenario Planning Approach, water distribution systems, District
Meter Area (DMA)
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RESUMO
A presente dissertação tem como objetivo principal o desenvolvimento e teste de uma metodologia para a
projeção da procura de água em sistemas de distribuição para curto, médio e longo-prazos, baseada numa
abordagem de planeamento de cenários. A maioria dos estudos existentes centra-se na previsão da procura
de água no curto prazo (horas ou dias) através da análise de dados históricos, considerando que os
acontecimentos no futuro são bastante semelhantes ao passado. Este trabalho pretende considerar diversos
horizontes temporais e introduzir as tendências e incertezas associadas ao futuro na construção dos
cenários de procura de água.
A metodologia proposta encontra-se estrutura em três módulos: 1. Definição do âmbito, 2. Caracterização

de cenários e 3. Construção de cenários. A metodologia é aplicada a Zonas de Medição e Controlo (ZMC)
localizadas em diversas regiões de Portugal para a construção de cenários de procura de água a curto (1
ano) e a longo-prazo (20 anos), incluindo as projeções das variáveis de procura e dos padrões diários de
procura. A metodologia para o processamento e análise de dados de consumo, desenvolvida por Loureiro
(2010) e melhorada por Mamade (2013), é utilizada e adaptada para obter os modelos de previsão e
classificação da procura em ZMC, em função das variáveis explicativas mais significativas.
Este trabalho permitiu melhorar o modelo de previsão da procura proposto nos trabalhos anteriores com a
introdução de uma nova variável explicativa: a temperatura. Esta variável influência o consumo,
principalmente quando o consumo público faturado e o consumo doméstico faturado no 3 e 4 escalão são
elevados. A construção de cenários de procura de água nos diversos horizontes temporais, considerando as
tendências e incertezas associadas aos acontecimentos futuros, constitui uma das principais contribuições
inovadoras deste trabalho, fornecendo informação útil para promover o uso eficiente dos recursos hídricos,
bem como para assegurar a sustentabilidade dos sistemas de distribuição de água a curto, médio e longo-
prazos.
Palavras-chave: projecção da procura de água, abordagem de planeamento de cenários, sistemas de

distribuição de água, Zonas de Mediação e Controlo (ZMC)
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I would like to thank Professor Dídia Covas and Dr. Dália Loureiro for allowing the development of this
thesis. Thank you Professor Dídia for your availability shown throughout this work, always with a clear and
simple vision of the focal issue. Thank you Dália for your availability, patience and attention to detail.
I would also like to thank Sergio T. Coelho and all the members of the Urban Water Division in National
Laboratory for Civil Engineering (LNEC) by good welcome and all constructive comments that contributed to
the advancement and improvement of this work. A particular, thank you Aisha Mamade for your constant
availability to help.
Thank Professor António Jorge de Sousa, Professor Maria do Rosário Partidário and Professor Conceição
Amado for your time in sorting out all my doubts.
An important thanks to Susana Ferreira for the valuable help in the introduction to the C# programming
language.
Thank all my friends, especially to Rita and Sara for providing great moments of fun.
Thank you Tiago Martins Mota for your constant support and companionship.
Finally, an important thanks to my family, especially to my parents and to my brother for the constant
motivation and support, which enabled the completion of this course.
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CONTENTS
1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................. 1
1.1. Context and motivation .................................................................................................................... 1
1.2. Objectives and expected results ....................................................................................................... 2
1.3. Contents ............................................................................................................................................ 2
2. STATE-OF-THE-ART ............................................................................................................................ 5
2.1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 5
2.2. Scenario planning .............................................................................................................................. 5
2.2.1. An overview ................................................................................................................. 5

2.2.2. Concepts ...................................................................................................................... 6
2.2.3. Step-process ................................................................................................................ 9
2.3. Scenarios in a broad context ........................................................................................................... 12
2.4. Scenarios in the water domain ....................................................................................................... 14
2.4.1. Concepts .................................................................................................................... 14

2.4.2. Decisions levels ......................................................................................................... 16
2.4.3. Examples of scenarios ............................................................................................... 17
2.5. Water consumption factors (key-variables).................................................................................... 18
2.5.1. Economic factors ....................................................................................................... 19
2.5.2. Socio-demographic factors........................................................................................ 21
2.5.3. Climate factors .......................................................................................................... 25
2.5.4. Infrastructure, technological, regulation and ordinance factors .............................. 26
2.6. Water consumption analysis ........................................................................................................... 27
2.6.1. Data processing ......................................................................................................... 27

2.6.2. Forecasting water demand and consumption variables ........................................... 28
2.7. Summary and conclusions .............................................................................................................. 32
3. PROPOSED METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................ 35
3.1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 35
3.2. Methodology for the construction of scenarios ............................................................................. 35
3.2.1. General methodology................................................................................................ 35

3.2.2. Scope definition......................................................................................................... 37
3.2.3. Scenario characterization .......................................................................................... 39
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3.2.4. Scenario construction................................................................................................ 40
3.3. Characterization of water consumption ......................................................................................... 41
3.3.1. Data processing ......................................................................................................... 41

3.3.2. Flow data characterization ........................................................................................ 43
3.3.3. Demand prediction.................................................................................................... 45
4. INFLUENCE OF TEMPERATURE ON WATER CONSUMPTION............................................................. 51
4.1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 51
4.2. Selection and characterization of analysis areas ............................................................................ 51
4.3. Characterization of water consumption ......................................................................................... 52
4.4. Data processing ............................................................................................................................... 53
4.4.1. Descriptive analysis and data normalization............................................................. 53
4.4.2. Outlier detection and cleaning .................................................................................. 54
4.4.3. Combining data ......................................................................................................... 56
4.5. Data analysis ................................................................................................................................... 56
4.5.1. Consumption variables .............................................................................................. 56
4.5.2. Cluster analysis .......................................................................................................... 57
4.5.3. Regression analysis.................................................................................................... 61
5. DEMAND SCENARIOS AT THE DISTRICT METER AREA LEVEL ............................................................ 65
5.1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 65
5.2. Selection and characterization of analysis areas ............................................................................ 65
5.3. Scenario and domestic consumption characterization ................................................................... 68
5.4. Data processing ............................................................................................................................... 69
5.4.1. Descriptive analysis and data normalization............................................................. 69
5.4.2. Outlier detection and cleaning .................................................................................. 70
5.4.3. Combining data ......................................................................................................... 71
5.5. Consumption analysis ..................................................................................................................... 72
5.5.1. Consumption variables .............................................................................................. 72
5.5.2. Demand classification model .................................................................................... 74
5.6. Water demand prediction............................................................................................................... 78
5.7. Trends characterization .................................................................................................................. 84
5.8. Water demand projection (Scenario construction) ........................................................................ 88
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5.9. Scenario model implementation .................................................................................................... 89
6. CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................................................. 95
6.1. General considerations ................................................................................................................... 95
6.2. Novel contributions ........................................................................................................................ 95
6.3. Future developments ...................................................................................................................... 96
REFERENCES ......................................................................................................................................................97
APPENDIX A – CLASSIFICATION OF TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL SCALES ...................................................... 109
APPENDIX B – FACTORS (KEY-VARIABLES) THAT INFLUENCE DOMESTIC WATER CONSUMPTION ............ 110
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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1 – Work structure................................................................................................................................... 3
Figure 2 – Step-process for scenario planning, based on von Reibnitz (1988), Schwartz (1991), Schoemaker
(1995)and Peterson et al. (2003)...................................................................................................................... 11
Figure 3 – Three District Meter Areas (DMA) in a water distribution system (adapted from Alegre et al.
(2005)) .............................................................................................................................................................. 15
Figure 4 – Water consumption versus water price: a) Veck and Bill (2000), and b) Stephenson (1999) ......... 20
Figure 5 – Water consumption per capita and per household as a function of average people per household
(Beal and Stewart, 2011) .................................................................................................................................. 21
Figure 6 – Daily consumption pattern for working days: a) young families, and b) elder families (Mamade,
2013)................................................................................................................................................................. 23
Figure 7 – Daily profile of average usage (l/hour) by hour of day (starting from midnight) considering low,
medium and high income: a) summer hourly profile, and b) winter hourly profile (Loh and Coghlan, 2003) 24
Figure 8 – Weekly water demand, temperature, and rainfall series (Jain et al., 2001) ................................... 26
Figure 9 – General methodology for the construction of scenarios based on the Scenario Planning Approach
.......................................................................................................................................................................... 36
Figure 10 – Matrix to establishment scenarios (Godet, 2006) ......................................................................... 39
Figure 11 – Methodology for the characterization of water consumption developed by Loureiro (2010) ..... 41
Figure 12 – Average water flow pattern during workdays and holidays (Palau et al., 2011)........................... 45
Figure 13 – Average daily temperature in the weather stations of Lisbon (2006 and 2007) and Setúbal (2011)
.......................................................................................................................................................................... 53
Figure 14 – Flow values and total of domestic clients for each DMA .............................................................. 54
Figure 15 – Outlier detection of Type I and Type II from SDM_Set DMA ......................................................... 55
Figure 16 – Effects of outlier removal in basic flow statistics: a) maximum, and b) minimum ........................ 55
Figure 17 – Number of days of cleaned series and days with less than 75% of daily data for each DMA ....... 56
Figure 18 – Average, median, maximum and minimum consumption and the reference value per client of
each DMA ......................................................................................................................................................... 57
Figure 19 – Dendrogram resulting from the cluster analysis ........................................................................... 59
Figure 20 – Consumption as a function of temperature for Cluster 1: a) average monthly consumption, and
b) average daily consumption .......................................................................................................................... 59
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Figure 23 – Representation of the three clusters identified: a) average monthly consumption, and b) average
daily consumption ............................................................................................................................................ 61
Figure 24 – Regression lines for each cluster considering the average and median: a) monthly consumption,
and b) daily consumption ................................................................................................................................. 63
Figure 25 – Regression lines for each cluster considering the average monthly and daily analysis ................ 63
Figure 26 – DMA's characteristics: a) number of clients, domestic clients, clients per service connections and
inhabitants per client, and b) number of service connections and density of service connections ................ 66
Figure 27 – General overview of socio-demographic variables (adapted from Mamade et al. (2013)) .......... 67
Figure 28 – Flow values and total of domestic clients for each DMA .............................................................. 70
Figure 29 – Outlier detection Type I, Type II and Type III from CMA_Lis DMA ................................................ 70
Figure 30 – Effects of outlier removal in basic flow statistics: a) maximum, and b) minimum ........................ 71
Figure 31 – Number of days of cleaned series and of days with less than 75% of daily data for each DMA ... 71
Figure 32 – Instantaneous, daily and monthly peaking factors for each DMA................................................. 73
Figure 33 – Average and median consumptionper client of each DMA ........................................................... 73
Figure 34 – Minimum night and night consumption per client for each DMA ................................................. 74
Figure 35 – Winter (blue) and summer (red) period for each analysed DMA .................................................. 74
Figure 36 – Dendrogram resulting from the cluster analysis for the DMA ...................................................... 75
Figure 37 – Daily variation of hourly consumption: a) Type 1, and b) Type 2 .................................................. 75
Figure 38 – Daily variation of hourly consumption: a) Type 3, and b) Type 4 .................................................. 76
Figure 39 – Decision tree to classify the daily demand pattern for working days ........................................... 78
Figure 40 – Population above 65 years from 1980 to 2060 (estimates and projections) (Coelho et al., 2008) 85
Figure 41 – Historical data of socio-demographic explanatory variables: a) from 1999 to 2011, and b) from
1960 to 2011, and c) from 1981 to 2011 .......................................................................................................... 86
Figure 42 – Modules of the computational tool ............................................................................................... 90
Figure 43 – Interface of computational tool for introduction of initial data by the user ................................. 91
Figure 44 – Interface of computational tool: a) for the introduction of trends data by the user, and b) for the
visualization of results ...................................................................................................................................... 91
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LIST OF TABLES
Table 1 – Definitions of scenario ........................................................................................................................ 7
Table 2 – Definitions and examples of prediction, forecast and projection (MacCraken, 2001) ....................... 8
Table 3 – Definition of uncertainty and trend .................................................................................................... 9
Table 4 – Scenario development techniques in a broad context ..................................................................... 12
Table 5 – Definition of domestic consumption and water demand ................................................................. 14
Table 6 – DMA size in terms of service connections range .............................................................................. 15
Table 7 – Characteristics of decision levels for water utilities (Alegre and Covas, 2010)................................. 16
Table 8 – Examples of water scenario studies in the water domain ................................................................ 18
Table 9 – Characteristics of households and their influence on water consumption (Hobson and Jeffrey,
2004)................................................................................................................................................................. 22
Table 10 – Forecasting methods ...................................................................................................................... 29
Table 11 – Consumption variables ................................................................................................................... 32
Table 12 – Characteristics of scenarios studies ................................................................................................ 37
Table 13 – Temporal and spatial scales divided by decision levels .................................................................. 38
Table 14 – Matrix with the key-variables divided by different temporal scale ................................................ 40
Table 15 – Parameters/Statistics calculated for each flow time series ............................................................ 42
Table 16 – List of consumption variables studied ............................................................................................ 44
Table 17 – Type, requirements and sources of explanatory data (Loureiro, 2010) ......................................... 45
Table 18 – General characteristics of DMA selected ........................................................................................ 51
Table 19 – Criteria used for DMA selection ...................................................................................................... 52
Table 20 – Original flow time series parameters .............................................................................................. 53
Table 21 – Consumption variables calculated from cleaned flow series.......................................................... 57
Table 22 – Year of flow time series and of analysed variables data ................................................................. 58
Table 23 – Analysed variables for cluster analysis ........................................................................................... 58
Table 24 – Parameters of regression model of average monthly and daily consumption for each cluster ..... 62
Table 25 – General characteristics of DMA studied ......................................................................................... 65
Table 26 – General overview of climate variables ............................................................................................ 67
Table 27 – Explanatory variables used in construction of demand scenario (adapted from Mamade (2013)) 68
Table 28 – Original flow series parameters ...................................................................................................... 69
Table 29 – Consumption variables calculated from cleaned flow series.......................................................... 72
Table 30 – Summary of predictor variables for the centre-south region (adapted from Mamade (2013)) ..... 78
Table 31 – Representation of correlation matrix for the centre-south region................................................. 81
Table 32 – Results of the Multiple Linear Regression analysis for the new and old demand prediction model.
.......................................................................................................................................................................... 82
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Table 33 – Predictive value and Cook’s distance (minimum and maximum value) for each Multiple Linear
Regression ........................................................................................................................................................ 84
Table 34 – Method (projection or prediction) adopted to estimate the trends from different key-variables 85
Table 35 – Estimations of parameters of linear regression of each prediction trend ...................................... 87
Table 36 – Interval of predictor variables......................................................................................................... 87
Table 37 – Results of scenario construction for short-term for the centre-south region ................................ 89
Table 38 – Results of scenario construction for long-term for the centre-south region .................................. 89
Table 39 – Interval of general characteristics for validation step .................................................................... 90
Table 40 – Temporal and spatial scales .......................................................................................................... 109
Table 41 – Factors (key-variables) that influence domestic water consumption........................................... 110
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NOTATION
Abbreviation Meaning
ANN Artificial Neural Networks
ARIMA Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average
BAU Business-as-Usual
BME Bayesian Maximum Entropy
CA Cluster Analysis
CIA Cross-Impact Analysis
Entidade Reguladora dos Serviços de Água e Resíduos (Portuguese Regulator of
ERSAR
Water Services and Wastes)
DMA District Meter Area
FIS Fuzzy Inference Systems
FNN Fuzzy Neural Networks
GARCH Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity
GBN Global Business Network
GEO Global Environmental Outlook
GIS Geographic Information System
GSG Global Scenario Group
IPCC International Panel of Climate Change
INE Instituto Nacional de Estatística (Portuguese National Statistics Institute)
KMO Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin
LNEC Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil (National Laboratory for Civil Engineering)
MAD Median Absolute Deviation
MLR Multiple Linear Regression
PCA Principal Component Analysis
SAS Storyline-and-Simulation
SD Standard Deviation
Sistema de Facturação e de Gestão de Clientes (Billing and Customer Management
SFGC
System)
SRES Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
SRI Stanford Research Institute
SSE Statistical Subsection
TEC Economic, Technology and the Private Sector
TIA Trend-Impact Analysis
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UNEP United Nations Environment Programme
VAL Values and Lifestyles
VIF Variance Inflation Factor
WBCSD World Business Council for Sustainable Development
WDS Water Distribution System
WMO World Meteorological Organization
WSS Water Supply System
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LIST OF SYMBOLS
Symbol Meaning Units

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dP Changes in price [€/m ]
3
dQ Changes in consumption [m ]
e Price elasticity of demand [-]

3
Q Water consumption [m ]
3
P Price of water [€/m ]
Other factors, such as income, household type, or household

Z [-]
composition
3
OTL Outlier value in the data series [m /h]
3
MED Median of a set of previous observations defined by the user [m /h]
c Threshold value to be defined by the user (c>0) [-]

3
Qn Robust standard deviation of the observations based on the Qn scale [m /h]
y Dependent variable
β Regression parameter or coefficients
x Independent variables
ε Random error, representing the discrepancy in the approximation
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Chapter 1 – Introduction
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1. Context and motivation
The need for an integrated and sustainable approach to water resources management is increasingly more
important and urgent. The water-supply-demand gap is likely to grow wider still, threatening economic and
social development and environmental sustainability (UNEP, 2007). Water demand are expected to increase
by 50% from 2006 to 2025 in developing countries, and 18% in developed countries (WWAP, 2006).
Integrated water resources management will be of crucial importance in overcoming water scarcity resulting
from consumption growth and climate changes (UNEP, 2007).
Water distribution systems are designed to satisfy consumers’ needs in the long-term (e.g., 40-50 years).
One of the most important factors in planning and managing these systems is the satisfaction of consumer
demand, which presupposes providing adequate water volume at a reasonable pressure and with an
adequate quality (Herrera et al., 2010). In order to ensure appropriate future service levels, it is essential to
assess and project, as accurately as possible, the evolution of water demands.
Future is complex, dynamic and affected by unexpected factors, such as climate variation, demographic
shifts, population growth and economic transitions. These factors are likely to have a significant impact on
the availability of the water resources (Buchberger et al., 2008) and to limit the capacity to project water
demands in the future. Scenario planning is an extremely important approach for short, medium and long-
terms planning and management of territory systems (Pallottino et al., 2005).
Water demand forecasting is typically used to predict future water needs (Froukh, 2001) and is necessary for
the design, operation and future planning of water distribution infrastructures. This technique allows the
establishment of appropriate management policies to ensure the continuity of the service with the lowest
possible cost (Silva et al., 1995). During the last decade, a considerable effort has been made to improve
water demand forecasting methodologies. The continuous effort is extremely important especially when
trying to understand the different factors that influence consumption, improving forecasting methods and
reducing forecasting uncertainty (Froukh, 2001).
Many studies on demand forecasting have been carried out, namely Zhou et al. (2000), Alvisi et al. (2007),
Bougadis et al. (2005) and Jain et al. (2001). Most of these studies aim at predicting water demand in the
short-term (hourly, daily or monthly) (Alvisi et al., 2007) and are based on the analysis of historical
consumption data. The projection of water demand in distribution systems in the short, medium and long-
term timescales and considering the trends and uncertainties associated to factors that influence domestic
water consumption is of the utmost importance and is still less studied. Therefore, the need for further
studies related to this topic is the main motivation for the development of this thesis.
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1.2. Objectives and expected results
The main objective of this thesis is to develop and test a comprehensive methodology to project water
demand for water distribution systems, taking into account uncertain factors associated to the economy,
the social-demography, the climate, the technological developments, the regulations and the ordinances.
This methodology will provide useful information to promote a more efficient use of water resources as well
as to ensure the sustainability of water distribution systems in the short, medium and long-terms.
To achieve the proposed goal, the specific objectives need to be attained:
 development of an extensive state-of-the-art review about scenario planning in a broad context as

well as about main factors that influence drinking water consumption;
 development of a comprehensive methodology for the projection of water demand for domestic
consumers, based on the Scenario Planning Approach;
 analysis of the effect of the temperature (as an explanatory variable) on consumption;
 testing and validation of the proposed methodology in real life network sectors from existing
distribution systems.
The expected outputs of the current research work include:
 a comprehensive and consolidated methodology for the projection of water demand based on the
Scenario Planning Approach;
 an improvement of demand prediction models by the incorporation of temperature;
 a software application for the construction and comparison of demand scenarios considering
uncertain factors, such as socio-demographic, infrastructure and temperature.
1.3. Contents
The work structure presented in Figure 1 was followed in order to achieve the proposed goal, which includes
six chapters briefly described as follows:
 Chapter 1, the current chapter, introduces the topic of demand scenarios in water distribution
systems, explains the motivation and establishes the objectives. It also describes the methodology
and the structure of the present thesis.
 Chapter 2 presents a state-of-the-art review about factors that influence characteristic parameters
of water consumption in short, medium and long-terms and about existing approaches to the
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construction of scenarios. This chapter also reviews the forecasting methods to predict water
demand.
 Chapter 3 describes the proposed methodology for the projection of water demand in water
distribution systems in the short, medium and long-terms. The methodology for the processing and
analysing of consumption data proposed by Loureiro (2010) and adapted in this work is described.
 Chapter 4 verifies the influence of temperature on water consumption to be incorporated as an

explanatory variable in the construction of demand scenarios, using a real life case-study;
 Chapter 5 focuses on the application of the proposed methodology. The initial part of this chapter
presents a description of the case-study and the consumption data are processed and analysed.
The chapter presents the results of the application of methodology to project a short-term
scenarios, considering variables associated to seasonality (i.e., temperature), and a long-term
scenarios, considering socio-demographic variables. This chapter also describes the computational
tool developed in C# programming language for scenario planning.
 Chapter 6 summarizes the final conclusions of the developed study and includes suggestions for
future studies.
Chapter 1 - Introduction
Chapter 2 - State-of-the-art
Chapter 3 - Proposed methodology
Chapter 4 - Influence of temperature on water

consumption
Chapter 5 - Demand scenarios at the district meter

area level
Chapter 6 - Conclusions
Figure 1 – Work structure
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Chapter 2 – State-of-the-art
2. STATE-OF-THE-ART
2.1. Introduction
The current chapter aims at presenting a state-of-the-art review about scenario planning, including an
overview of the different definitions of scenarios as well as the key organizations and individuals who
contributed to the development of different scenario techniques. In this chapter, the scenario development
techniques in a broad context with major focus on the schools of scenario techniques (La Prospective,
intuitive logics, and probabilistic modified trend) are also reviewed. In what concerns to the water domain, a
characterization of decision levels (strategic, tactical, and operational) including a summary of the main
characteristics of each with special focus on the temporal and spatial scales and examples of scenarios, will
be revisited. The characterization of domestic water consumption including the collection and description of
the main factors (key-variables) will be carried out. The water consumption analysis consists of the data
processing and forecasting of water demand. Data processing includes a description of the data validation or
normalization, data cleaning and gap filling (Loureiro, 2010), with main focus on the detection and
elimination of outliers. The forecasting of water demand includes a summary of the main methods used to
predict water demand and the consumption variables. A summary of the state-of-the-art is presented at the
end of the chapter.
2.2. Scenario planning
2.2.1. An overview
The concept of scenario planning first emerged following World War II, as a method for military planning
(Mietzner and Reger, 2004). In the 1950s, Herman Kahn, a member of the strategic planning at the RAND
Corporation, introduced the notion of scenario for military planning by developing scenarios for the Air
Defense System Missile Command, a large scale early warning system (Lindgren and Bandhold, 2002;
Bradfield et al., 2005; Rounsevell and Metzger, 2010). In 1961, Kahn expanded the notion of scenario to
other areas, such as social forecasting and public policy after he founded the Hudson Institute (Ringland,
1998; Lindgren and Bandhold, 2002; Bradfield et al., 2005). In 1967, Kahn published the most controversial
book written with Anthony Wiener, The Year 2000: A Framework for speculation on the next thirty-three
years. This book provided one of the earliest definitions of scenario and generated numerous studies, for
example, The Limits of Growth, published in 1972 from the Club of Rome Reports (Bradfield et al., 2005;
Hughes, 2009).
In the early 1970s the meaning of scenario reached a new dimension, with the work of Pierre Wack, who
was a planner in the London offices of Royal Dutch/Shell and the first to establish the fundamentals of the
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use of scenarios as instruments for strategy development, based on the philosophy of Kahn (Mietzner and
Reger, 2004; Van der Heijden, 2005). In 1967, Shell initiated the study “Year 2000”, a project to study the
business environment that would exist in 2000 preparing for the eventuality of a future oil crisis, such as the
oil crises of 1973 and 1981 (Wack, 1985). At the same time, in the mid-1960s, the Stanford Research
Institute (SRI) began to develop scenario-based planning techniques for studying the future. SRI used this
approach to create focused scenarios as a basis for strategy and decision-making, better known in the
literature as the intuitive logics school. The scenario techniques have been widely developed throughout the
work of Peter Schwartz, co-founder of Global Business Network (GBN) which benefited from the studies of
Royal Dutch/Shell and SRI in developing methods for scenarios, published the book The Art of the Long View,
in 1991, offering the basis of GBN approach (Ringland, 1998).
One of the most renowned social-policy oriented scenario processes took place in South Africa in 1991, in
the conference centre outside Cape Town organized by Professor Pieter le Roux, well-known as the Mont
Fleur scenarios. This process aimed to develop a set of stories about what could happen in that country
during 1992-2002 and drew together a multiracial team as politicians, activists, academics and business
people across the ideological spectrum, including Adam Kahane, Shell's representative (Hughes, 2009). The
Global Scenario Group (GSG) combined rich qualitative storylines with quantitative modelling techniques
and has been used in all major assessments including the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP),
the Global Environmental Outlook (GEO), the International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC), the Millennium
Ecosystem Assessment and many other regional and national studies (Raskin et al., 2002; Rounsevell and
Metzger, 2010).
While Herman Khan developed scenarios for the military planning in the 1950s, a French philosopher Gaston
Berger founded the Centre d’Etudes Prospectives where he developed a scenario approach to long-term
planning, a contrasting school named prospective thinking or La Prospective (Bradfield et al., 2005). Since
the 1970s, the work of La Prospective school has been expanded by Michel Godet, the head of the
Department of Future Studies at SEMA group, which began to develop scenarios for several French national
institutions (Bradfield et al., 2005; Hughes, 2009). La Prospective focuses on specific strategic decisions and
tactical plans and identifies the most probable scenario, as well as illustrates the less probable upper and
lower limit of the scenarios, using numerical analysis of a broad range of potentially relevant factors based
on experts’ views (Rounsevell and Metzger, 2010).
2.2.2. Concepts
A multitude of scenario definitions exist in the scientific literature (Greeuw et al., 2000). The Compact
Oxford English Dictionary of Current English asserts that the word scenario is derived from the Latin scaena,
meaning scene. The specific term scenario was used in arts (such as theatre and film) as the description of a
6
series of dramatic actions and events. The term has expanded and is applied to any description of a possible
future series of events (Van Notten, 2005; Hughes, 2009). Over the years, several definitions of scenarios
were elaborated from different authors (Table 1).
Table 1 – Definitions of scenario
Definition Author
Scenarios are hypothetical sequences of events constructed for the purpose of focusing
Kahn and Wiener (1967)
attention on causal processes and decision points.
[Scenario is] a plausible description of how the future may develop, based on a coherent
Nakicenovic et al. (2000)
and internally consistent set of assumptions about key relationships and driving forces.
Scenarios are archetypal descriptions of alternative images of the future, created from
mental maps or models that reflect different perspectives on past, present and future Rotmans et al. (2000)
development.
[Scenario is] that part of strategic planning which relates to the tools and technologies
Ringland (1998)
for managing the uncertainties of the future.
[Scenario is] an internally consistent view of what the future might turn out to be – not
Porter (1985)
a forecast, but one possible future outcome.
The different definitions of scenarios show different perspectives, but there is a general consensus about:
the scenarios are not forecasts (Schoemaker, 1993; Nakicenovic et al., 2000; Rotmans et al., 2000; Carter et
al., 2001). The World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) differentiates the concepts of
forecast and scenario. A forecast is based on a single interpretation of the best information we have about
the present as it is extrapolated into the future. Fundamentally, a forecast assumes that the future is fairly
similar to the past; and the scenarios, in contrast, offer multiple versions of an unknown future (WBCSD,
2006).
The main characteristics that describe scenarios are: geographical scale, time-horizon and multiple views
(Greeuw et al., 2000). Van Notten (2005) suggest that scenarios always includes: hypothetical nature, casual
coherent and internal consistency, possible use as a bases for action, plausibility and transparent,
interpretative nature and connection between past, present and future. Nielson and Wagner (2000)
identified the main functions of scenario planning as: anticipate future threats and opportunities, project
multiple futures based on optimistic and pessimistic projections of past events, foster strategic thinking and
learning, facilitate the art of strategic conversation, challenge or dispel assumptions about the “official”
future, provide leadership for new initiatives or direction, create options for decision making, develop
frameworks for a shared vision of the future to influence organizational and individual behaviour and create
an internal or external communication channel that transcends organizational boundaries, time and space.
7
The scenarios can be classified as quantitative or qualitative, descriptive or normative. Quantitative
scenarios are often models-based, while qualitative scenarios are based on narratives which are usually
developed in cases where data are weak or absent. The difference between descriptive and normative is
that the first scenarios sketch an ordered set of possible events irrespective of their desirability, while
normative scenarios take into account values and interests (Greeuw et al., 2000).
The scenarios are mechanisms for learning (Wollenberg et al., 2000). They are very useful when the external
environment is complex with high scientific uncertainties and the key decisions involve major investments or
have long-term consequences (Schoemaker, 1993; Nakicenovic et al., 2000; Wollenberg et al., 2000;
Peterson et al., 2003; Brummell and MacGillivray, 2009). In public discussion the words projection,
prediction, and forecast are often used interchangeably (MacCraken, 2001). This author provided the
definitions and examples of prediction, forecast and projection, as presented in Table 2.
Table 2 – Definitions and examples of prediction, forecast and projection (MacCraken, 2001)
Definition Example
Prediction is a probabilistic statement A weather prediction indicating whether tomorrow will be clear or
that something will happen in the future stormy is based on the state of the atmosphere today (and in the recent
based on what is known today. past) and not on unpredictable changes.
A forecast is a statement by a weather forecaster that it will rain at 3:30

Forecast is the best prediction from a
PM tomorrow – that is that individual's best judgment, perhaps drawn
particular method, model or individual.
from a prediction that there is a 70% chance of rain tomorrow afternoon.
Projection is a probabilistic statement The International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) recently projected a
that is possible that something will range of possible temperature changes that would likely occur for a
happen in the future if certain conditions range of plausible emissions scenarios and a range of model-derived
develop. estimates of climate sensitivity.
The key-focus of the scenarios is the uncertainty (Brummell and MacGillivray, 2009). The future is uncertain,
because the world is undergoing rapid changes and the direction of these changes is uncertain (Godet and
Roubelat, 1996). Uncertainty is not simply the absence of knowledge; it can still prevail in situations where a
large amount of information is available. Besides, new information can either decrease or increase the
uncertainty. New knowledge on complex processes may reveal the presence of uncertainties that were
previously unknown or were underestimated (van Asselt and Rotmans, 2002). Other important factors
should be considered in construction of scenarios, such as driving forces (factors) and trends. The scenarios
are constructed out of driving forces, that consist of economic, social, cultural, ecological and technological
events that influence and can cause changes in the future (Fahey and Randall, 1998). The definition of
uncertainty and trend is presented in Table 3.
8
Table 3 – Definition of uncertainty and trend
Definition Author
[Uncertainty is] any deviation from the unachievable ideal of completely

Walker et al. (2003)
deterministic knowledge of the relevant system.
[Trend is] something that represents a deeper change, not a fad. Lindgren and Bandhold (2002)
Schoemaker (1995) also proposed a definition for trends and uncertainties. This author define trend as
actual forces that have high impact on the field and that people believe are highly predictable (i.e., well-
known facts). In general, the strategies are based on trends. Uncertainties are forces with a high impact on
the field and whose predictability is low (i.e., unknown facts/solutions). Examples of trend and uncertainty
are aging population in Portugal and cure for cancer, respectively.
2.2.3. Step-process
Scenario planning is a systematic approach for thinking creatively about possible complex and uncertain
futures. The central idea of scenario planning is to consider a variety of possible futures that include many of
the important uncertainties in the system rather than to focus on the accurate prediction of a single
outcome (Peterson et al., 2003). Alcamo (2008) referred that scenario planning includes scenario
development, evaluation and comparison of consequences. There are many different approaches to
scenario planning but all follow systematic and recognizable steps. This process is highly interactive, intense
and imaginative (Mietzner and Reger, 2004). The step-process used in this work was adapted from the
approaches developed by von Reibnitz (1988), Schwartz (1991), Schoemaker (1995) and Peterson et al.
(2003). It is a six-step process, composed by the following steps: Define, Characterize, Construct, Test,
Develop and Embed, as depicted in Figure 2.
Define
Scenario planning aims to enhance our ability to respond quickly and effectively to a wide range of futures,
avoiding potential traps and benefiting from potential opportunities. Because the real world is highly
complex and the future contains an infinite number of possibilities, scenario planning must be focused to be
effective (Peterson et al., 2003). The first step includes: prioritization the objectives, definition of the scope
analysis, identification of the focal issue, set of the time horizon and definition of the best approach for the
scenario construction.
Characterize
The step Characterize involves the following activities: identification of stakeholders, definition of the major
key-variables, identification of the trends, uncertainties and research needs. The identification of the
9
stakeholders includes the individuals and organizations which are affected, show interest and influence the
focal issue defined in the previous step. This assessment should consider the different world’s views of the
stakeholders because these views often significantly shape a group’s understanding of a system’s dynamics.
A key aspect of scenario planning is identifying which trends and uncertainties, based on the study of the
factors (key-variables), will have a large impact on the focal issues. A subset of these uncertainties should be
used to help define the scenarios (Schwartz, 1991; Schoemaker, 1995; Peterson et al., 2003).
Construct
Following determination of what is known and unknown (i.e., trends and uncertainties) about the factors
(key-variables) that shape the system’s dynamics, the next goal is to identify alternative ways that the
system could evolve. These alternatives should be both plausible and relevant to the original question.
Plausible alternatives should each represent a path shaped by the interaction of existing dynamics and
possible future events. An analysis of the role of uncertainties in the previous step can be used to organize
alternatives. Scenario planning usually focuses on uncontrollable uncertainties because the attempts of
stakeholders to address controllable problems should be included within a scenario’s dynamics. A set of
alternatives can be defined by choosing two or three uncertain or uncontrollable driving forces. The
uncertainties chosen to define the alternatives should have differences that are directly related to the
defining question or issue. This set of alternatives provides a framework around which scenarios can be
constructed. A set of scenarios is built based on the understanding accumulated during the previous step
and should expand and challenge the current thinking about the system (Schwartz, 1991; Schoemaker, 1995;
Peterson et al., 2003).
Test
Once the scenarios have been developed, they should be tested for consistency and plausibility. The
dynamics of scenarios must be plausible; neither nature nor the stakeholders involved in the scenario should
behave in implausible ways. Inconsistencies will quickly emerge as major obstacles to their usefulness for
developing policy. Consistency can be tested by quantification, against stakeholder behaviour, through
expert opinion, and against other scenarios. Quantifying the changes expected in the system allows the
plausibility of the scenarios to be tested in a number of ways. A rough test would involve the scenario team
adopting the world view of all stakeholders to explore their behaviour in a scenario. A stronger test would
be to involve various groups of actors and stakeholders in the scenario process to ensure that stakeholder
behaviour is plausible. Testing usually reveals problems with scenarios. Consequently, scenarios need to go
through several iterations of refinement and testing before they can be used to evaluate policies (Peterson
et al., 2003).
10
Develop
This step includes the creation of scenario documents and outputs, the development of quantitative models
and the identification of the scenarios’ impacts. The quantitative models can help to quantify the
consequences of various scenarios (Schoemaker, 1995).
Embed
Once a set of scenarios has been developed, it can be used to test, analyse, and create policies. The simplest
use of the scenarios is to assess how existing polices would fare in different scenarios. Such an approach can
identify weak policies and those that are more robust to uncertainty about the future. A slightly more
sophisticated approach is to identify the properties of policies or actions that perform well in all the
scenarios. In this process, it is important to identify traps and opportunities and aspects of the current
situation that could influence these scenario features. This process may suggest novel policies, areas for
research, and issues to monitor. A successful scenario planning effort should enhance the ability of people
to cope with and take advantage of future change. Decisions can be made, policies changed, and
management plans implemented to steer the system toward a more desirable future (Peterson et al., 2003).
The Scenario Planning Approach present was adapted for the construction of demand scenarios. This work
focuses on identification of the focal issue, set of time horizon and definition of the best approach for the
construction of demand scenarios (step Define). Also focuses on the identification of the major key-
variables, trends and uncertainties of domestic water consumption (step Characterize) and on the
construction of demand scenarios (step Construct). Last, this work includes a development of a scenario
demand model (step Develop).
Define Characterize Construct Test Develop Embed
Prioritize Identify the Establish Verify the Create Define action

objectives stakeholders scenario robustness of scenario plan
Define scope Define the framework scenarios documents Create
of analysis major key- Construct (consistency and outputs policies
variables scenarios and Develop
Identify focal Implement
Identify the plausibility) quantitative
issues Ensure management
trends and Generate models
Set the time internal plans
uncertainties strategic
horizon consistency Identify the
options
Identify impacts of
Define the
research scenarios
best
needs
approach
Figure 2 – Step-process for scenario planning, based on von Reibnitz (1988), Schwartz (1991), Schoemaker (1995)and
Peterson et al. (2003)
11
2.3. Scenarios in a broad context
In order to select the best technique for scenario construction a review of the main scenario development
techniques in a broad context was carried out, as summarized in Table 4. The research was divided by
schools of scenario techniques that emerged in the last decades and can be classified as: La prospective or
normative/deterministic models, intuitive logics or social constructivist models and probabilistic modified
trend or rational/objectivist models (Wilkinson and Eidinow, 2008).
As an example of scenario developed is referred the greenhouse gas emission scenarios constructed by
Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) and, then, applied by several authors in other areas, for
example, Jacinto et al. (2013) in development of water use scenarios. The IPCC was created in 1988. It was
set up by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and UNEP to prepare, based on available scientific
information, assessments on all aspects of climate change and its impacts, with a view of formulating
realistic response strategies (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). The IPCC is well-known by the development of
greenhouse gas emission scenarios in the last decades. In 1992, the IPCC emission scenarios were used for
driving global circulation models to develop climate change scenarios, were called IS92 scenarios. The
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of IPCC was published in 2000 and covers a wide range of the
main driving forces of future emissions. Four different narrative storylines were developed to describe
consistently the relationships between emission, driving forces and their evolution and, then, add context
for the scenario quantification. Each storyline represents different demographic, social, economic,
technological, and environmental developments (Nakicenovic et al., 2000; Riahi et al., 2007).
Table 4 – Scenario development techniques in a broad context
Schools of scenario techniques Research works
Ringland (1998), Berkhout and Hertin (2002), Mietzner and Reger

(2004), Bradfield et al. (2005), Godet (2006), Wilkinson and Eidinow
La prospective
(2008), Hughes (2009), Hughes and Strachan (2010), Rounsevell and
Metzger (2010)
Mietzner and Reger (2004), Bradfield et al. (2005), Wilkinson and
Intuitive logics
Eidinow (2008)
Dalkey (1972), Gordon (1994a), Mietzner and Reger (2004),
Cross-Impact
Probabilistic Bradfield et al. (2005), Bishop et al. (2007), Wilkinson and Eidinow
Analysis (CIA)
modified (2008)
trend Trend-Impact Gordon (1994b), Mietzner and Reger (2004), Bradfield et al. (2005),
Analysis (TIA) Bishop et al. (2007), Wilkinson and Eidinow (2008)
The school of La prospective first developed by Gaston Berger and it was primarily normative, that is,
scenarios were intended to provide a guiding vision of the future for policymakers to work towards and
through which to harness the promise of scientific and technological progress in the service of humanity
(Wilkinson and Eidinow, 2008). Under Michel Godet, the school of La Prospective began to use a
12
mathematical and computer based probabilistic approach to scenario development, including morphological
analysis for scenario construction, Micmac for identify key-variables, Mactor for analysis of stakeholders’
strategies and Smic-Prob-Expert for determined the probability of scenarios, all specific computer programs
were developed by Godet (Bradfield et al., 2005). This approach does not claim to eliminate uncertainty
with predictions; instead it aims to reduce uncertainty as much as possible and to enable people to make
decisions in view of desired futures (Godet, 2006).
Intuitive logics schools is referred as a social constructivist model or a non-probabilistic scenario

construction (Wilkinson and Eidinow, 2008). First described by Pierre, in 1985, and developed by SRI, GBN
and Shell, considered the most appropriate way to use all available information about the future; generating
new ideas and this can help in identify the underlying patterns. Besides, the intuitive logic is strictly
connected with the experts who work on the scenarios, the techniques are assembled together in the most
varied way and, consequently, it is difficult to check the validity of the particular approach adopted from the
scientific point of view (Mietzner and Reger, 2004).
Wilkinson and Eidinow (2008) referred the probabilistic modified trend models as rational/objectivist
approach to scenarios and can be divided into Cross-Impact Analysis (CIA) and Trend-Impact Analysis (TIA).
The Cross-Impact Analysis (CIA) was originally developed by Theodore Gordon and Olaf Helmer in 1966 at
RAND Corporation. Their initial application consists of a forecasting game for Kaiser-Aluminum, and
subsequently programmed by Gordon and Hayward in 1968. A range of causal and correlation cross-impact
variants have since been developed by researchers (Gordon, 1994a; Bradfield et al., 2005). CIA is a model for
revising estimated probabilities of future events in terms of estimated interactions among these events
(Dalkey, 1972). The first step is to define the events to be included in the study and, then, estimate the initial
probability of each event. These probabilities indicate the likelihood that each event will occur in a certain
future year. Individual or groups of experts from the various disciplines estimate the initial probabilities of
each events through questionnaires, interviews, and group meetings (Gordon, 1994a).
The Trend-Impact Analysis (TIA) model was developed in the early 1970s and it is most often associated with
the Futures Group based in Connecticut (Bradfield et al., 2005). According to Gordon (1994b) TIA is a
forecasting method that permits extrapolations of historical trends to be modified in view of expectations
about future events. In this approach two principal steps are necessary: the analysis of historical data to
calculate the future trend, given no unprecedented future events and the use of expert judgments to
identify a set of future events. For each such event, experts judge the probability of occurrence as a function
of time and its expected impact on the future trend.
13
2.4. Scenarios in the water domain
2.4.1. Concepts
APDA (1999) define urban consumption as being composed by domestic, industrial, service (trade) and other
uses (e.g., public consumption). Domestic consumption constitutes the main component of urban
consumption, corresponding to 64% (APDA, 1999). Definitions of domestic consumption and water demand
are presented in Table 5.
Table 5 – Definition of domestic consumption and water demand
Definition Author
[Domestic consumption is] a stochastic process (a set of random variables which vary in
Butler and Graham (1995)
time and space), characterized by intermittent uses of relatively short duration.
[Water demand is] the volume of water per unit of time estimated as necessary to the
Bau (1983)
satisfaction of future consumption.
The definition proposed for water demand scenario, in this work, is the following:
Water demand scenario
Water demand scenario is a possible future outcome based on a set of assumptions about
driving forces that influence water consumption to manage the uncertainties of water demand
in the future.
Silva et al. (1995) defined the prediction of water demand as the modelling of water consumption to define
the maximum likelihood developments in the near depending on the trends observed in the recent past
future. The projection of water demand is defined as the evidence of trends or demand scenarios, with the
development of the parameters that influence. In this work the term “prediction” refers to a single water
demand value based on demand prediction models developed using the historical data. While the term
“projection” refers to several water demand values using the demand prediction models and introducing the
trends and uncertainties of factors (key-variables) that influence the consumption. Other terms are used in
this work recursively, such as consumption and demand. The term “consumption” refers to the measured
flow, while the term “demand” refers to the consumption projected.
In this work, the consumption analysis is based on available continuous flow measurements at District Meter
Area (DMA) level (Figure 3). These areas facilitate the operation of systems, allowing a better understanding
of water consumption, as well as a more accurate estimate of water losses and the methods to be adopted
for its control (Farley and Trow, 2003).
14
Morrison (2004) defined DMA as follows:
District Meter Area (DMA)
District Meter Area (DMA) is an area of a distribution system which is specifically defined (e.g.
by the closure of valves) and in which the quantities of water entering and leaving the area are
continuously metered.
Figure 3 – Three District Meter Areas (DMA) in a water distribution system (adapted from Alegre et al. (2005))
The optimum DMA size is needed for the DMA implementation and the corresponding metering, installation,
maintenance, calibration, and volume of information requiring analysis (Brothers, 2011). Alegre et al. (2005)
recommends that the DMA should have a size of approximately 2000 service connections, but in other
countries the recommended size is significantly lower (300-600 service connections). Farley and Trow (2003)
recommend DMA with a number of service connections between 500 and 3000 in order to ensure efficiency
in pinpointing critical areas with high water losses, while Jankovic-Nišic et al. (2004) recommend smaller
DMA (with 250 to 600 connections) for a better control of bursts and leaks. DMA recommended sizes in
terms of service connections from different authors are summarized in Table 6.
Table 6 – DMA size in terms of service connections range
Number of service connections Author
500 – 3000 Farley and Trow (2003)
250 – 500 Jankovic-Nišic et al. (2004)
200 – 2000 Loureiro (2010)
15
2.4.2. Decisions levels
The activities of utilities can be planned at different decision levels: strategic, tactical, and operational
(Vanier, 2000; Alegre and Covas, 2010). In Table 7 the characteristics of decision levels for water utilities are
summarized, adapted from Alegre and Covas (2010). Each decision level is associated with different time
horizon and scope. At the strategic level, long-term objectives are established for the entire system of the
organization. In the case of water utilities the entire system corresponds to the supply system. At the tactical
level the tactical objectives, the evaluation criteria and the metrics developed for an intermediate horizon
and a limited geographical scope are defined (e.g., specific sub-system). While the operational level
establishes the actions for short-term (Alegre and Covas, 2010).
Typically, different time horizons and geographical scales are associated with different uses or purposes,
different types of forecast models, and different levels of reliability. In terms of time horizons, scenarios in
different domains can be categorized as long-term, medium-term or short-term, associated with different
decision levels, strategic, tactical and operational, respectively. In the development of scenarios in water
supply systems the long-term time horizon is usually related to the time required for the development of
new water infrastructures and equipment. The forecasts errors typically increase with the duration of the
forecast period. The scenarios for the medium-term are commonly developed for planning improvements in
water distribution and treatment system and for setting water tariffs. The scenarios for short-term support
system operations, budgeting and financial management and the development of forecasts of water use to
optimize day-to-day utility operations (Billings and Jones, 2008). The temporal and spatial scales are
important aspects to consider in constructing scenarios. Thus, a review of the temporal and spatial scales
classifications in previous works was carried out and divided by several goals of water studies as follows:
water management, water modelling and water demand forecasting (see Table 40 in appendix A).
Table 7 – Characteristics of decision levels for water utilities (Alegre and Covas, 2010)
Levels Strategic Tactical Operational
Administrator of Operational head of

Responsible Manager of infrastructure
infrastructure infrastructure
Define the direction of the
Define what to do and with
Aim organization in terms to Define how to do
what priority
infrastructure
Results Strategies Tactics Program of actions
Time horizon Long-term Medium-term Short-term
Sub-system and critical

Scope Global system Groups of components
components
16
2.4.3. Examples of scenarios
Scenario planning in water distribution systems allows anticipating the evolution of demand, availability or
quality of water. In order to help in conception of the best design for the distribution system and in the
establishment of appropriate management policies to ensure continuity of distribution service with the
lowest possible cost (Silva et al., 1995). Several scenarios have been developed in the water domain. Some
examples are referred in Table 8 namely: SCENES, WBCSD and the World Water Vision scenarios. These
scenarios typically aim to assess water availability in the future, considering large geographic scales and
using the scenario development techniques described in sub-section 2.3. On the other hand, studies aimed
at predicting water demand for distribution systems using forecasting techniques, this mean to predict
water demand for short-term (hours, days or months), through analysis of historical data, without
introducing the trends associated with factors (key-variables) that influence the consumption.
SCENES project (Water Scenarios for Europe and Neighbouring States) is a research project of four years,
which started in late 2006 and consists of a multi-faceted integrated project that aims to address the
complex questions about the future of Europe’s water resources. It aims at the development and analysis of
a set of comprehensive scenarios of Europe’s freshwater futures up to 2050. An integrated approach is
necessary to combine and balance the many dimensions of Europe’s water futures, including hydrological,
ecological, economic, cultural, social, climatic, financial and other dimensions. The SCENES scenarios, both
qualitative and quantitative, provide a reference point for long-term strategic planning of European water
resource development, alert policymakers and stakeholders about emerging problems and allow river basin
managers to test water plans against uncertainties and surprises (Kamari et al., 2008; van Vliet et al., 2010).
The World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD), in 2006, carried out the report of water
scenario to 2025. The project involved a series of five workshops with the participation of almost 200
individuals from business, government, intergovernmental and nongovernmental organizations, and
academia. The specific objectives in building the “H2O Scenarios” (H – Hydro; 2 – Rivers and O – Ocean)
were to clarify and enhance understanding by business of the key issues and drivers of change related to
water; to promote mutual understanding between the business community and non-business stakeholders
on water management issues and support effective business action as part of the solution to sustainable
water management (WBCSD, 2006).
In 1997, the World Water Forum sponsored by the World Water Council, called the World Water Vision was
held in Marrakech, Morocco, aiming to increase awareness of the water crisis and to develop a widely
shared view of how to bring about sustainable use and development of water resources. Three global water
scenarios were developed for the year 2025, assuming that the first five years (2000-2005) the scenarios are
all the same, because of unavoidable lags in decision-making, the inertia of some processes, and the time
17
required to investments (Gallopín and Rijsberman, 2000). These authors described the differences between
these scenarios as follows:
 The Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario represents the future trajectory in the case of those who do
not believe in the crisis prevail and no major policy or lifestyle changes take place.
 The Economics, Technology and the Private Sector (TEC) scenario could result from policies
favoured by for those who rely on the market, the involvement of the private sector and mainly
technological solutions, and largely national/local or basin-level action.
 The Values and Lifestyles (VAL) scenario could materialize through a revival of human values,
strengthened international cooperation and heavy emphasis on education.
Table 8 – Examples of water scenario studies in the water domain
Water domain Research works
SCENES Kamari et al. (2008), van Vliet et al. (2010)
WBCSD WBCSD (2006), Claassen et al. (2013)
Alcamo et al. (2000), Gallopín and Rijsberman (2000), Carter et al.

Business-as-Usual (BAU) (2001), Rosegrant et al. (2002), Alcamo et al. (2007), Hollermann
et al. (2010), Rounsevell and Metzger (2010), George et al. (2011)
World Water
Economics, Technology
Vision Alcamo et al. (2000), Gallopín and Rijsberman (2000)
and Private Sector (TEC)
Values and Lifestyles (VAL) Alcamo et al. (2000), Gallopín and Rijsberman (2000)
2.5. Water consumption factors (key-variables)
Knowledge of domestic consumption is of the utmost importance for the adequate management of existing
water supply systems, for construction or expansion of new systems, and for the definition of strategies for
long-term in supply systems (Silva et al., 1995; Rebelo et al., 2008). The understanding of the factors that
influence domestic consumption is an important tool for efficient planning, operation and managing of
water supply systems. This information can be applied in several areas, such as: the application of
appropriate tariffs for the consumer profile; to control of water losses by the knowledge of night
consumption or to proper regulation of pressure; the projection of consumption; and the implementation
and evaluation of the impact of measures of domestic consumption on the efficient use of water (Loureiro
et al., 2008).
The consumption for each client is normally measured or estimated, monthly, bimonthly or semi-annually
only for billing purposes. This approach is insufficient for a better understanding of the temporal behaviour
of consumption (e.g., consumption patterns) and the projection of demand in the long-term (Pinheiro et al.,
18
2007; Rebelo et al., 2008). Currently, the use of Geographic Information System (GIS) and the statistical data
allows the identification and the characterization of the main factors that explain the consumption (Loureiro
et al., 2008; Rebelo et al., 2008). On the other hand, the implementation of home-telemetry systems allows
to more efficiently collect domestic consumption data, transfer and then, store data in a database for billing
purposes or for other applications (Loureiro et al., 2007). Alegre and Coelho (1994), Loureiro et al. (2008),
Pinheiro (2008) and Loureiro (2010) are examples of studies which propose a methodology for the
characterization of water consumption.
An extensive review of the main factors (key-variables) that influence the domestic water consumption
observed in 40 research works was carried out (see Table 41 in appendix B). The key-variables are divided
into categories and sub-categories due to the importance of categorizing data into relevant or associated
groups. Kotler (2011) suggested an approach often cited in marketing, defined as PESTE: Political, Economic,
Social, Technological and Environmental. Cornish (2004) proposed a method used by organizations involved
in forecasting, called DEGEST: Demographic, Economic, Government, Environmental, Social and
Technological. In this research categories for the organization of key-variables that influence domestic water
consumption were defined as the follows: Economic, Socio-demographic, Climate, Infrastructure,
Technological, Regulations and ordinances.
2.5.1. Economic factors
The water price is an important factor that influence the domestic water consumption (Corbella and Pujol,
2009) and represents one of the most relevant tools to manage water demand, becoming a concern issue
among decision-makers during the last decades (Arbués et al., 2003; Arbués et al., 2004). The price elasticity
of demand is defined as the ratio between consumption variation and price variation. Van Vuuren (2004)
describes the price elasticity of demand as follows:
(1)
in which
Price elasticity of demand [-]

3
Changes in consumption m
3
Water consumption m
3
Changes in price €/m
3
Water price €/m
The relationship between consumption and water price can be represented by several ways, the simplest
form is a linear relationship – consumption linearly decreases as the price of water increases (Hoffman and
19
Du Plessis, 2013). Veck and Bill (2000) and Stephenson (1999) suggested a different relationship between
water price and consumption, represented in Figure 4.
In Figure 4 (a), the relationship is represented by an arc, wherein the consumption gradually decreases as
the price increases. Stephenson (1999) suggested a relationship of three well-defined regions, illustrated in
Figure 4 (b), this graph consists of an elastic zone and two inelastic zones. In the elastic zone, it is very easy
for the consumers to adjust their consumption. As the price decreases, the consumption increases,
however, the elasticity of water demands can vary due to the water uses, whereas the outdoor water use
exhibits a high degree of price elasticity, the indoor uses are unresponsive to price variation. Furthermore,
as the price increases, it becomes harder to reduce consumption at the same rate as before, because the
water is essential, without substitute for the basic uses, resulting in a minimum required consumption for
each consumer and, thus, the inelastic zone results (Stephenson, 1999; Arbués et al., 2003; White et al.,
2003; Hoffman and Du Plessis, 2013). On the other side, a reduction in the price causes an increase in water
consumption. Again, at some point the consumer can only consume a specific maximum amount of water
and a further reduction of the price will not result in an increase in consumption, this forms the second
inelastic zone (Stephenson, 1999; Hoffman and Du Plessis, 2013).
(a) (b)
Figure 4 – Water consumption versus water price: a) Veck and Bill (2000), and b) Stephenson (1999)
A key feature of demand side management policies is the pricing structure used to apply to water services.
The effects of pricing structure can explain how effective price has been in regulating water consumption
and thereby how successful price has been in meeting the multiple objectives usually taken into account
when designing an optimal pricing policy (Worthington and Hoffmann, 2006). Tariffs may be linear,
nonlinear, or mixed. In nonlinear, the tariffs by parts corresponding to the type of tariff most practiced in
the use of water in the urban network. Usually there is a fixed part, which allows access to the service and a
variable part depending on the intensity of use. The variable part is, normally, a linear function of the
quantities, although by thresholds (INAG, 2001; Arbués et al., 2003). The effects of the level, shape, and
frequency of tariff on consumption should have special attention, since these are variables that can be
20
altered by the policy-maker (Martinez-Espineira, 2002). Consumers who are more frequently billed might be
expected to understand better the tariff structure and the relation between use and size of the bill. More
billing periods would then mean less water use. (Arbués et al., 2003).
2.5.2. Socio-demographic factors
Utilities do not provide water to single persons but to private households. The number of houses as well as
the size of households is relevant for the quantity of water to be supplied (Hummel and Lux, 2007). March et
al. (2010) argued that the number of persons living in the household (i.e., household size) appears to be the
most important driver of consumption, regarding demographic variables. In principle, the higher the number
of people living in a household is, the larger the aggregate demand is supposed to be. Nonetheless, larger
families are usually more water efficient on a per capita basis due to economies of scale, as depicted in
Figure 5 (Edwards and Martin, 1995; Höglund, 1999; Arbues and Villanua, 2000). Höglund (1999) concluded
that when the average number of person per household increases, the water demand per person declines
by 55-70% of the relative change in the number of persons. Thus, if the average number of persons per
household increases from 2 to 3 in a community, demand for water per person declines by 27-35%. This
study intended to estimate a household demand function for water using community level data for 282
Swedish communities’ studies annually over the period 1980-1992.
Figure 5 – Water consumption per capita and per household as a function of average people per household (Beal and
Stewart, 2011)
Urban land uses in particular the density of houses (compact or dispersed), also have an important effect on
domestic water consumption (March et al., 2010). Property size and property type are observed to be
significantly correlated with household water demand. Whether housing is the main or the secondary unit of
residence or whether apartments or houses are occupied are also important issues to take into
consideration in the explanation of variations in the consumption (Corbella and Pujol, 2009). Nauges and
21
Thomas (2000) suggest that the distinguishing houses used only for a part of the year, or as a secondary
residence, from principal residences might help identify those communities where seasonal use can have a
greater impact. The proportion of individual households might also be helpful to proxy the average size of
gardens, and sometimes the level of penetration of individual (rather than collective) metering. Other
housing features, such as the number of bathrooms, may be relevant. The stock of appliances could help to
understand the difference between short-run and long-run reactions, a suggested by the literature on
electricity demand (Arbués et al., 2003). Other important aspect consists of the house age. White et al.
(2003) identified that younger properties (<15 years old) had a higher consumption than older properties
(40–50%), however Tso and Yau (2003) indicate that older homes use more water due to the of potential
leaks. In Table 9 the characteristics of households and their influence on water consumption are
summarized.
Table 9 – Characteristics of households and their influence on water consumption (Hobson and Jeffrey, 2004)
Characteristics Author Main conclusions
Larger dwellings and isolated households tend to spend

Housing typology Russac et al. (1991) more water, while smaller houses and apartments tend to
spend less water.
Households with a higher number of rooms are larger and
Number of bedrooms Bryant and Tillman (1998) more occupants who inhabit them tend to spend more
water.
Dwellings on the ground floors are more likely to have
garden and, thus, greater demand for water especially in
Existence of garden Hall et al. (1988)
the summer months. Dwellings with gardens have a higher
water demand overall, but consume less water per capita.
Dimension of garden Hall et al. (1988) Dwellings with larger gardens tend to spend more water.
Older homes use more water due to the possibility of
House age Tso and Yau (2003)
leaks.
The age of the residents is also a considerably powerful explanatory variable for modelling domestic water
consumption, but it is not always used in studies that address this subject (Garcia et al., 2013). Families with
children could be expected to use more water. Outdoors use by children and teenagers might be higher too.
Youngsters might use water less carefully, have more showers, and require more frequent laundering, while
retired people might be more cautious (Nauges and Thomas, 2000).
In terms of patterns, elderly may observe patterns of more cautious water consumption than the population
in general. This may be partially related to the fact that elderly people tend to live in small apartments/flats
and have few water-using appliances (March et al., 2010). Burnell (2003) suggest that households which are
economically active or have school age children will have water-use patterns at weekends which differ from
weekdays. There will be fewer early-morning deadlines and the pattern of water use then may be
significantly different. Instead, households which are economically inactive and without children are much
22
more likely to have a similar rising pattern at the weekends as on the weekdays. In another study, Alegre et
al. (1992) argued that the presence of an aging population, the water consumption is distributed over the
day, without excessive consumption register; on the other hand, the presence of areas with predominantly
active population have higher consumption during the early morning and before dinner.
Mamade (2013) analysed the daily consumption pattern for working days, Saturdays and Sundays,
considering two different types of profiles: young families and elder families. The young families profiles
includes medium families with 3 or 4 elements who usually live in buildings with 5 or more floors and whose
elements spend most of the time outside home (e.g., work or study outside municipalities). The elder
families profile includes small families with 1 or 2 elements, typically people with more than 65 years or
inactive workers, who usually live in buildings with 1 or 2 floors and spend most of the time at home. The
daily consumption pattern for working days considering these two types of profiles is shown in Figure 6.
(a) (b)
Figure 6 – Daily consumption pattern for working days: a) young families, and b) elder families (Mamade, 2013)
Few studies deal with the influence of people’s education in water use (Corbella and Pujol, 2009). White et
al. (2003) suggest that education and communication strategies are often developed to influence water
demand patterns. These can take various forms, such as educational materials distributed by water
providers or the use of water efficiency labelling. It can be difficult to determine the effectiveness of an
education and awareness strategy because it is often part of a larger programme implemented to reduce
water demand, such as new pricing structures, a rebate programme or drought restrictions.
The domestic water consumption is positively correlated with the family income (Arbués et al., 2003; Syme
et al., 2004). Cole (2004) indicate that higher levels of income may suppose an increase in living standards,
which could imply a higher quantity of water consumption. For example, during the 1960s, the increase in
ownership of automatic top loading washing machines correlated significantly with rising levels of
disposable household income, increasing water demand for this end use, as these machines replaced less
water intensive washing methods, such as hand washing, twin tubs and wringer machines. A current
23
example is the rise in the number of automatic reticulated sprinkler systems in some areas (White et al.,
2003). However this assumption between income and water consumption should not be generalized due to
the advances of technology enabling the purchase of more efficient equipment at a lower price (White et al.,
2003; Loureiro, 2010). Besides, household income had a significant effect on outdoor uses. High income
households tended to increase the outdoor uses than lower income households (Loh and Coghlan, 2003).
These authors described the summer and winter daily profiles of low-rise buildings consumption considering
different income thresholds (Figure 7). There was very little difference in the profiles for all the households
during winter when most water usage is in-house. Alegre et al. (1992) suggested that the residential areas of
higher income tend to consume less water at weekends than during the week. On the other hand, areas
with lower incomes performed more household activities on weekend due to low mobility during those
days.
(a) (b)
Figure 7 – Daily profile of average usage (l/hour) by hour of day (starting from midnight) considering low, medium and
high income: a) summer hourly profile, and b) winter hourly profile (Loh and Coghlan, 2003)
Probably the relationship between gender and domestic water use is the variable less studied (Corbella and
Pujol, 2009). Makki et al. (2011) considered gender as an influential factor of consumption, stating that
women might have longer showers than men. Multiculturalism includes the ethical and religious
characteristics of the population that can influence domestic water consumption, although the inclusion in
studies of these is rare (Burnell, 2003). Smith and Ali (2006) verified that the water use patterns in DMA
were highly characterized by religious practices, particularly for Jewish and Muslim groups (e.g., Ramadan
period). These authors also suggest that religion has a significant influence not only on how people use
water, but also on how they think about water.
Other key-variables influencing the domestic water consumption are the migratory process and tourism. The
migratory process could temporarily rejuvenate the aging population and compensate the loss of population
in urban cores (Corbella and Pujol, 2009). Nauges and Reynaud (2001) argued that immigrants from
developing countries (and also the local elderly) may present more cautious water consumption patterns
24
than the population in general. On the other hand, Martinez-Espineira (2002) used multiple explanatory
variables to estimate the domestic water demand, one of which the tourism index.
2.5.3. Climate factors
Climate is one of the most explicative drivers of domestic water consumption (González and Carranza,
2003). Temperature and rainfall are the most commonly used climate indicators due to the greater
availability of data (Miaou, 1990), though one could argue that other variables such as moisture, irradiation,
and evaporation may also be relevant (White et al., 2003; Corbella and Pujol, 2009). Climate factors can be
separated into short-term and long-term factors. Short-term factors include weather factors, such as daily
temperature or rainfall. The longer-term climate change tends to increase the average annual temperature,
rainfall and evapotranspiration (White et al., 2003). Diverse studies show that climate variables, such as
temperature and rainfall, induce short-term seasonal variations (Zhou et al., 2000).
The temperature influences domestic water consumption, because high temperatures imply more
evapotranspiration both from humans and plants, and this fact increases garden needs and human needs to
be hydrated. In addition, hotter days imply higher consumption through increased hygiene habits and
outdoor uses, such as garden watering and swimming pools (Hoffmann et al., 2006; Corbella and Pujol,
2009). Loh and Coghlan (2003) argued that consumption in outdoor uses is very sensitive to climate. These
authors verified that the low-rise buildings, with high income, have a higher consumption in the summer
mainly due to increase of outdoor uses.
Miaou (1990) suggested that the effect of rainfall on the daily urban water use was characterized to be both
dynamic and state-dependent. The dynamic implies that the occurrence of rainfall causes a temporary
reduction in seasonal water use that diminished over time and eventually becomes negligible. The state-
dependent implies that, under the same rainfall conditions, the higher the seasonal water use level, prior to
the occurrence of a rainfall, the greater the effect can be expected. The state-dependent property of rainfall
effect has two important implications: people respond more to its occurrence than to its amount; in other
words, the effect is more psychological than physical (at least in the short-term), and rainfall has relatively
no effects when water use approaches to indoor uses, which is either a result of low temperature in the
winter or several days of consecutive rainfalls.
Jain et al. (2001) investigated the technique of artificial neural networks in forecasting short-term water
demand at the Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur. Figure 8 shows the weekly water demand at Indian
Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur campus considering the variation of weekly total rainfall (mm) and
weekly average maximum air temperature (C) from the City of Kanpur, India.
25
Figure 8 – Weekly water demand, temperature, and rainfall series (Jain et al., 2001)
2.5.4. Infrastructure, technological, regulation and ordinance factors
White et al. (2003) suggest that the physical state of the urban water distribution system can influence bulk
water demand because of leakage from pipes, being pressure an indirect factor influence water demand.
Technical innovation includes innovation by industry to reduce or eliminate water use in appliances, fixtures,
irrigation and other water-using equipment. The availability, awareness and perceived acceptability of such
technologies will influence customer uptake and water usage practices, which will in turn affect water
demand (White et al., 2003).
White et al. (2003) considered that regulation and regulatory measures include the use of building controls
and appliance performance standards. Water restrictions include the use of voluntary or mandatory
regulation practices of water use by customers. This includes short-term water use restrictions, such as
those used during drought periods. Drought restrictions usually have a greater influence on outdoor water
use than indoor, because the indoor water use is usually for essential uses and thus, the outdoor water use
is often the first target for regulations through water use restrictions (Jorgensen et al., 2009). Other drought
response planning strategies can include: rationing, pricing, education, communication, mitigation,
operational improvements and supply-side options. Rationing includes short-term water allocations based
on local area, per capita or across the board. Pricing includes applying block tariffs, scarcity pricing, seasonal
tariffs or fines. Education and communication includes workshops, media advertising and establishing a
drought information centre. Mitigation is the implementation of a demand management strategy in advance
of a drought will reduce the severity of water shortages. Operational improvements include improvements
to the water supply infrastructure, such as reducing mains pressure or implementing a more rapid response
to reported leaks. (White et al., 2003).
26
2.6. Water consumption analysis
2.6.1. Data processing
The abundance of data, coupled with the need for powerful data analysis tools, has been described as a data
rich but information poor situation. Data mining has attracted a great deal of attention in the information
industry and in society as a whole in recent years, due to the wide availability of huge amounts of data and
the imminent need for turning such data into useful information and knowledge (Han and Kamber, 2006).
Han and Kamber (2006) and Maimon and Rokach (2005) suggested that the data processing consists of the
following steps: descriptive data analysis, elimination of outliers, data transformation, combining data and
data reduction.
The most important step in data processing is the detection and elimination of outliers (Loureiro, 2010).
Grubbs (1969) and Liu et al. (2004) defined outliers as observations that do not follow the statistical
distribution of the bulk of the data, and consequently may lead to erroneous results with respect to
statistical analysis. Liu et al. (2004) argued that outliers may be generated by a different mechanism
corresponding to normal data and may be due to sensor noise, process disturbances, instrument
degradation, and/or human-related errors. It is futile to carry out data based analysis when data have
outliers because these can lead to model misspecification, biased parameter estimation and incorrect
analysis results. Ben-Gal (2005) suggested that outlier detection methods can be divided in univariate
methods and multivariate methods. Another fundamental taxonomy of outlier detection methods is
between parametric (statistical) methods, which assumes a known underlying distribution of the
observations or, at least, they are based on statistical estimates of unknown distribution parameters and
nonparametric methods that are model-free.
The univariate methods for outlier detection rely on the assumption of an underlying known distribution of
the data, which is assumed to be identically and independently distributed. Moreover, many discordance
tests for detecting univariate outliers further assume that the distribution parameters and the type of
expected outliers are also known (Barnett and Lewis, 1994). Traditionally, the sample mean and the sample
variance give good estimation for data location and data shape if it is not “contaminated” by outliers. When
the database is “contaminated”, those parameters may deviate and significantly affect the outlier detection
performance (Ben-Gal, 2005). Accordingly, Hampel (1971) suggested the median and the Median Absolute
Deviation (MAD) as robust estimates of the location and the spread.
In many cases, the multivariable observations cannot be detected as outliers when each variable is
considered independently. Outlier detection is only possible when multivariate analysis is performed, and
the interactions among different variables are compared within the class of data multivariate outlier
detection procedures can be divided to statistical methods that are based on estimated distribution
27
parameters, and data mining related methods that do not assume an underlying generating model for the
data. Statistical methods for multivariate outlier detection often indicate those observations that are
located relatively far from the centre of the data distribution. Several distance measures can be
implemented for such a task. The Mahalanobis distance is a well-known criterion which depends on
estimated parameters of the multivariate distribution (Ben-Gal, 2005). As in one-dimensional procedures,
the distribution mean (measuring the location) and the variance-covariance (measuring the shape) are the
two most commonly used statistics for data analysis in the presence of outliers (Rousseeuw and Leroy,
2005).
Ben-Gal (2005) also indicated several factors that affect the efficiency of the analysed methods, such as:
whether or not the data set is multivariate normal, the dimension of the data set, the type of the outliers,
the proportion of outliers in the dataset and the outliers’ degree of contamination (outlyingness).
Loureiro (2010) proposed a methodology for processing data, including the steps mentioned above. A
descriptive data analysis aims to characterize the consumption data by calculating a set of parameters and
statistics and the identification of potential anomalous or less reliable data. A major objective of the next
step, data transformation, is the standardization of data (e.g., normalization of the time-step between
registers) to allow joint analysis of data with different characteristics. The combining data operates data
from different sources to get a series that represents a specific component of consumption to be studied
(e.g., total consumption, household consumption and not authorized domestic real losses). Finally, the
reduction of data allows compressing the volume of data contained in the original series, minimizing the loss
of information, resorting to techniques of multivariate analysis techniques, such as Principal Component
Analysis (PCA).
2.6.2. Forecasting water demand and consumption variables
A substantial progress has been made in forecasting methods over the past few centuries. There is a large
number of phenomena whose outcomes can now be predicted easily, as the sunrise, the speed of a falling
object, the trajectory of a satellite, the rainy weather, and many other events (Makridakis et al., 1998).
These authors describe as necessary conditions to apply a quantitative forecasting method the following:
 information about the past is available;
 this information can be quantified in the form of numerical data;
 it can be assumed that some aspects of the past pattern will continue into the future.
Faced with so many possibilities, the decision-makers hesitate on how to select a forecasting technique and
modelling approach. Choosing the best forecasting approach involves several decisions (Billings and Jones,
28
2008). There are five basic steps in any forecasting task for which quantitative data must be available, which
are: problem definition, gathering information, preliminary analysis, choosing and fitting models, using and
evaluating a forecasting model (Makridakis et al., 1998; Billings and Jones, 2008). As the forecast of errors
provides a means of measuring forecast accuracy, the errors play a significant role in the selection of
appropriate models. The accuracy of forecasts is evaluated by comparing them with observed demand
(Donkor et al., 2012).
A forecasting method is based on a set of explanatory variables (independent variables) that relate to the
water consumption (dependent variable) (Loureiro, 2010). In Table 10 the main forecasting methods are
summarized, which were organized in the following categories: Subjective, Extrapolation, Regression,
Computational methods and Other methods, followed by a brief description.
Table 10 – Forecasting methods
Approach Forecasting methods Research works
Expert opinion Billings and Jones (2008)

Subjective
Delphi methods Billings and Jones (2008)
Mun (2010), Billings and Jones (2008), Donkor et al.

Moving average
(2012)
Mun (2010), Billings and Jones (2008), Donkor et al.
Exponential smoothing
Extrapolation (2012)
(Time series Makridakis et al. (1998), Billings and Jones (2008),
models) Autoregressive Integrated Moving
Caiado (2009), House‐Peters and Chang (2011), Donkor
Average (ARIMA)
et al. (2012)
Generalized Autoregressive Conditional
Engle (1982), Bollerslev et al. (1992), Caiado (2009)
Heteroskedasticity (GARCH)
Makridakis et al. (1998), Billings and Jones (2008),
Regression Simple/Multiple linear regression
Caiado (2009), House‐Peters and Chang (2011)
Makridakis et al. (1998), Billings and Jones (2008),
Computational
Artificial intelligent methods Caiado (2009), Ghiassi and Nangoy (2009), House‐
methods
Peters and Chang (2011), Donkor et al. (2012)
Other methods Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) Christakos (1990), House‐Peters and Chang (2011)
The choice of a forecasting approach for water demand prediction depends on the expected uses for the
forecast results, as well as the size and other characteristics of the utility and its service area. Generally, the
amount of effort invested in forecasting increases with the size of the utility and with the importance of the
decisions that will be influenced by the forecast results (Billings and Jones, 2008). The most used methods in
forecasting water demand consist of time series regression models, neural networks and pattern recognition
(Loureiro, 2010). The review of forecasting methods is necessary to allow the best choose for development
the demand prediction models used to construct the demand scenarios.
29
Subjective
The subjective or judgment-based forecasting methods vary widely, ranging from the informed opinion of
utility management to highly structured Delphi and scenario construction methods. Scenario construction
involves brainstorming among an informed group of stakeholders about future conditions. Generally, the
participants develop several alternatives, based on various assumptions about the future. Such process can
help to identify long-term trends and to support long-term planning (Billings and Jones, 2008).
Extrapolation (time series models)

Extrapolation involves making statistical forecast by using historical trends that are predicted for a specified
period of time into the future. It is only used for time-series forecasts. The strength of extrapolation models
is that the only data required are the historical data concerning the variable forecasted. This methodology is
useful when past behaviour is a good predictor of future behaviour; that is, when major changes are not
expected, with large application in short-term forecasts. Extrapolation is fairly reliable, relatively simple and
inexpensive. However, extrapolation, which assumes that recent and historical trends will continue,
produces large errors if discontinuities occur within the predicted time period (Billings and Jones, 2008;
Mun, 2010). The main forecasting methods of extrapolation are: moving average, exponential smoothing,
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional
Heteroskedasticity (GARCH).
The moving average method uses an average of actual historical data to project future outcomes. A time-
series data that does not present a trend and seasonality is called single moving averaging; the double
moving average is used when time-series data present trend and no seasonality. The exponential-smoothing
method weights past data with exponentially decreasing weights going into the past (i.e., the more recent
data value, the greater its weight). This weighting largely overcomes the limitations of moving averages or
percentage-change models. The box-Jenkins for Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models
apply advanced econometric modelling techniques to forecast time-series data by first back-fitting to
historical data and then forecasting the future (Mun, 2010). Finally, the Generalized Autoregressive
Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) method was proposed by Engle (1982) and Bollerslev et al. (1992) to
model and forecast the conditional variance or volatility of the time-series (Caiado, 2009).
Polebitski and Palmer (2009) suggest that the time-series models based on historical consumption data can
be very useful for the forecast of consumption in the short-term, since they allow to accommodate daily,
weekly and seasonal cycles throughout the year.
Regression
The essential feature of these models is the use of a set of drivers or explanatory variables or independent
variables to show why dependent variable has changed historically and to forecast its future values utilizing
30
time series and cross‐sectional data (Billings and Jones, 2008; Caiado, 2009). The outset of a regression
analysis involves three basic questions (Billings and Jones, 2008):
 What is the dependent variable?
 What are the explanatory variables?
 What is the functional form of the regression?
Simple or Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) forecasting methods are widely used to predict consumption in
terms of a set of independent variables (Edwards and Martin, 1995; Adamowski, 2008). A wide range of
studies that model consumption as a function of the price of water and a set of explanatory variables
through models used in economic analysis, called econometric models. It are based on linear regression
models, and some types of econometric models is derived of the form (Arbués et al., 2003):
(2)
in which
3
Water consumption m
3
Price of water €/m
Other factors, such as income, household type, or household composition [-]
Computational methods
Computational methods use the relationships between the variables in the model to produce forecasts.
These methods are more difficult to use than the other models (Billings and Jones, 2008). An example of
computational method is artificial intelligence methods, which can be divided in Artificial Neural Networks
(ANN), Fuzzy Inference Systems (FIS) and Fuzzy Neural Networks (FNN) (House‐Peters and Chang, 2011).
ANN are statistical models built and maintained through an iterative training process. The ANN accumulates
knowledge at each model layer through a self‐learning process until a model is created that accurately
describes the behaviour of the process being modelled and can be used to forecast future values (Ghiassi
and Nangoy, 2009). ANN have been offered as effective alternatives to traditional linear modelling
approaches because of their ability to explicitly analyse nonlinear time series events (House‐Peters and
Chang, 2011); however, ANN are as “black-boxes”.
Others methods
The Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) approach takes into consideration not only the data, but also the
prior information and knowledge which are highly relevant to the spatial variability of the physical process
under estimation. It leads to a posterior probability with minimum uncertainty attached to it. This method,
in general, yields nonlinear estimators and attributes great significance to procedures translating qualitative
knowledge into appropriate quantitative constraints; in its present form, the Bayesian maximum entropy
31
approach may not be sufficient to account for all sorts of qualitative prior information, but it does
significantly restrict the range of arbitrariness. It can be applied in the case of spatial-temporal random
fields, as well as it yields results similar to those derived by well-established estimation methods, when the
same amount of information is used (Christakos, 1990).
Several dependent variables can be analysed to study the domestic water consumption. Rebelo et al. (2008)
suggested the following division of possible considering variables: billing variables, consumption variables,
and variables relating to the water supply network. The billing variables involve the billing of domestic and
non-domestic clients and the weight scale consumer. The consumption variables are related to the
behaviour of sector consumption through the profiles of daily consumption, histograms, and daily, weekly,
monthly and seasonal consumption statistics. The variables of the water supply network involve aspects
such as faults in the network and service, and the daily and night average pressure obtained from the
modelling. Table 11 presents the main consumption variables analysed.
Table 11 – Consumption variables
Type Consumption variables Research works
Hourly, daily, monthly, bi-monthly, annual average

Average
consumption per client or per inhabitant
Peaking Daily, weekly, seasonal peaking factor Loureiro et al. (2006), Loureiro et al.
Night Night consumption per inhabitant or per service connection (2008), Loureiro (2010), Donkor et al.
(2012), Mamade (2013)
Minimum Minimum consumption per client or per service connection
Other Daily behaviour, consumption by classes
2.7. Summary and conclusions
The current chapter presented a state-of-the-art review on the Scenario Planning Approach, on the
scenarios in a broad context and in water domain, and on the factors that influence the water consumption.
Initially key organizations and individuals who contributed to the development of scenario techniques as
well as different definitions of scenarios and their characteristics were revised. Many different definitions of
scenarios exist in literature showing different perspectives; however there was a consensus in one aspect:
scenarios are not forecasts. Several studies emphasize the difference between scenarios and forecasts,
referring the uncertainty of the future as a predominant feature in the construction of scenarios.
In what concerns to scenario development techniques different techniques for quantitative scenarios were
identified, with main focus on schools scenario techniques (La prospective, intuitive logics, and probabilistic
modified trend).
32
The planning of water supply systems can be carried out at different decision levels: strategic, tactical and
operational. Each level is associated to different responsible, aims, results, temporal and spatial horizons. In
scenarios’ construction the choice of temporal and spatial horizons is an important step, usually associated
with the purpose of the scenario. Literature review of the different classifications of temporal and spatial
horizons were developed and categorized in different goals of water studies as follows: water management,
water modelling, and water demand forecasting. Additionally, examples of different scenarios in the water
domain were referred; it was found that most studies of scenarios considered long spatial and temporal
horizons, with the objective to study the water availability.
In the characterization of domestic water consumption a review of the main factors affecting domestic
water consumption was developed and divided into the following categories: Economic, Socio-demographic,
Climate, Infrastructure, Technological, Regulations and ordinances. Most of the previous works focus on the
study of water price and income, few studies focus on some population characteristics, such as gender, age
structure, ethical and religious characteristics.
Data processing is a critical step in the analysis of water consumption when there is a large volume of data,
consisting of the following steps: descriptive analysis data, elimination of outliers, data transformation,
combining data, and data reduction. Diverse methods for detecting and eliminating of outliers have been
presented in this state of the art review. In what concerns to forecasting methods, different methods can be
used to predict water demand for very short time horizons, such as hours or days, whereas no major
changes will occur in the future.
In the current work the following definition for water demand scenario was proposed: “water demand
scenario is a possible future outcome based on a set of assumptions about driving forces that influence
water consumption to manage the uncertainties of water demand in the future”. This work aims to propose
a comprehensive methodology for the projection of water demand in the short, medium and long-terms
based on the Scenario Planning Approach and focuses mainly on the steps Define, Characterize, Construct
and Develop. Corresponding on the identification of the focal issue, the set of time horizon and the
definition of the best approach for the construction of demand scenarios (step Define). Also focuses on the
identification of the major key-variables, trends and uncertainties of domestic water consumption (step
Characterize) and on the construction of demand scenarios (step Construct). Last, this work includes a
development of a scenario demand model (step Develop).
33
34
Chapter 3 – Proposed methodology
3. PROPOSED METHODOLOGY
3.1. Introduction
This chapter aims at presenting the proposed methodology for the projection of water demand based on
the Scenario Planning Approach. The objective is to propose a general methodology for the construction of
scenarios in a broad context and applied in the network sector from existing distribution system for the
projection of water demand scenarios to short, medium and long-terms.
Initially, the general methodology proposed with the various modules for the construction of scenarios is
presented. The chapter continues with a detailed description of each module carried out in this study. The
methodology proposed by Loureiro (2010) for the characterization of water consumption is also presented
and explain. This methodology was fully adapted in this work to process and analysed the consumption data
and to verify the influence of temperature on the consumption.
3.2. Methodology for the construction of scenarios
3.2.1. General methodology
The general methodology proposed in this work for scenario construction based on the Scenario Planning
Approach is composed of six sequential modules presented in Figure 9. Each module consists of different
stages, each with certain results. In the scope of this study, only the stages which present a dark colour are
carried out. This methodology consists of the following six modules:
 Module 1 – Scope definition;
 Module 2 – Scenario characterization;
 Module 3 – Scenario construction;
 Module 4 – Robustness testing;
 Module 5 – Results development;
 Module 6 – Embed new policies.
Module 1, Scope definition, aims to define the scenario’s focus, in terms of object of study, water demand
category and expected demand projections. Besides, this module allows identifying the temporal and spatial
scales. The selection of the best technique for scenario construction should be based on the expected final
output and it is important due to the multiplicity of techniques in the scientific literature.
35
Figure 9 – General methodology for the construction of scenarios based on the Scenario Planning Approach
Module 2, Scenario characterization, allows identifying the main factors (key-variables) that can cause large
changes in the future. Moreover, the trends and uncertainties associated to key-variables are also
identifying in this module. The identification of the explanatory factors, the trends and the uncertainties are
a critical step because conditions the construction of scenarios. Usually in cases on the uncertainty are large
a brainstorming should be carried out with different experts in several areas.
Module 3, Scenario construction, aims to construct the scenarios based on the trends and uncertainties
identified in the previous module and on the prediction model selected (i.e., a forecasting method). Trends
and uncertainties are introduced in the prediction and classification models to obtain the projected value.
Module 4, Robustness testing, aims to verifying the scenarios’ robustness in terms of consistency and
plausibility. Three types of consistency should be checked for: trend consistency, outcome consistency and
stakeholder consistency. Trend consistency concerns the compatibility of the trends within the chosen time
frame. Outcome consistency involves the correlations referred to above (i.e., do the scenarios postulate
outcomes for the key uncertainties that indeed fit together). Stakeholder consistency requires that the
major actors in each scenario are not placed in positions they dislike and can change (Schoemaker, 1993). If
36
combinations are not credible or impossible are eliminated and new scenarios (two or more) are created
until achieve internal inconsistency and bracket a wide range of outcomes, through an iterative process.
Module 5, Results development, includes the creation of scenario’s documents, the development of
quantitative models and the identification of scenario’s impacts. The second stage (development of
quantitative models) is the development of a computational tool in C# programming language that allows to
project water demand for an unknown DMA, in terms of demand variables and demand patterns in short,
medium and long-terms at the DMA level. Moreover, it allows an evaluation and a comparison of the
different scenarios developed for the planning, design and operation of water distribution infrastructures by
the water utilities in a fast and automatic manner. The description of the computational tool is presented in
Chapter 5.
Module 6, Embed new policies, aims to define the action plan, create policies and implement management
plan based on the scenarios constructed.
3.2.2. Scope definition
Scope definition (Module 1) is composed of three stages. The definition of the scenario’s focus (first stage) is
an important step and critical characteristics of scenario studies must be considered at the beginning of
their construction. The descriptions of these characteristics are presents in Table 12.
Table 12 – Characteristics of scenarios studies
Object of study
Most studies of water scenarios aim at projecting water quality, water availability, water demand or all. Different
methodologies can be adopted to construct scenarios considering different objects of study. The geographical and
temporal scales as well as the explanatory variables of the object of study are the most modified elements. The
application of the presented methodology only considers as object of study the water demand.
Water demand category
According APDA (1999) the urban consumption is distributed in domestic, industrial, service (trade) and other uses
(e.g., public consumption). The predominance of domestic consumption makes this component the most studied and
the most complex in the construction of scenarios for water demand. The application of proposed methodology aims
to project the water demand for DMA predominantly domestic.
Expected demand projections
The construction of scenarios allows obtain useful information on the demand variables but also on demand
patterns. Loureiro (2010) argued that demand variables allow to typify demand and provide reference values (e.g.,
peaking factors, minimum average demand, average daily demand for the working days). This knowledge is
important for various purposes, such as planning, designing networks and water losses analysis. Coelho et al. (2006)
suggested that demand patterns allow typify the average daily behaviour for a given demand scenario. These
patterns are particularly useful for acquiring knowledge about the behaviour of consumption in DMA, in small areas
of network and of large consumers (Loureiro, 2010). The application of proposed methodology allows obtaining the
projection of demand variables and demanding patterns.
37
The identification of temporal and spatial scale (second stage) is necessary to identify the decision level
associated to the scenario constructed. The temporal and spatial scales considered in the proposed
methodology for the construction of demand scenarios are presented in Table 13. As described in sub-
section 2.4.2 the decisions levels can be divided in: strategic, tactical and operational. Each decision level is
associated with different temporal and spatial scales. In this work, the classification of temporal scale was
adapted from Alegre and Covas (2010). The strategic level is associated to a long-term (10 – 20 years) as a
temporal scale, the tactical level focuses on the medium-term (3 – 5 years), while the operational level
considers a short-term view (along 1 year). In all decision levels the spatial scale can be at the distribution
system, the network sector or the DMA level.
Table 13 – Temporal and spatial scales divided by decision levels
Strategic Tactical Operational
Long-term Medium-term Short-term

Temporal
(10 – 20 years) (3 – 5 years) (along 1 year)
Spatial Distribution system / Network sector / DMA
The selection of the best technique for the construction of demand scenarios in water distribution systems
to short, medium and long-terms used was the one proposed by Godet (2006). This technique, known as
morphological analysis, has been systematically used in studies related to air transportation,
computerization in Europe, development in the Catalan region of north-western Spain and scenario planning
at AXA Insurance, since the early 1990s. Godet (2006) argued that although the method has been primarily
used for technological forecasting, it lends itself well to the construction of scenarios in which the
demographic, economic, technical and social dimensions, or components, can be characterized by a certain
number of possible states or hypotheses. In this technique a scenario thus becomes a path, a combination
bringing together a configuration for each component. The author refers the limitations of the
morphological analysis as the choice of components. By leaving out one component that is essential to the
future, there is the risk of leaving out an entire range of possible futures. The second limitation stems from
the sheer bulk of combinations which can rapidly submerge the user. One of the solutions is to introduce
selection criteria, constraints such as exclusion or preference factors and to exploit the useful morphological
subspace. The schematic technique proposed by Godet (2006) and used in this work is presented in Figure
10.
38
Figure 10 – Matrix to establishment scenarios (Godet, 2006)
This work presents a comprehensive methodology for the construction of demand scenarios in water
distribution systems to short, medium and long-terms. The objective is to present a different matrix for each
temporal and spatial scale. Each matrix the relevant key-questions represent the different key-variables,
previously divided by temporal scale. The most important responses represent the trends estimated by
projection or prediction. The water utilities may choose the trends associated with each key-variable in
order to obtain a scenario.
3.2.3. Scenario characterization
Scenario characterization (Module 2) is constituted by the two stages: identification of the factors (key-
variables) and the identification of the trends and uncertainties. The identification of the main factors (key-
variables) that influence domestic water consumption is an important stage. The collection of the
explanatory variables (key-variables) was carried out in sub-chapter 2.5 and presented in Table 41 (Appendix
B). The large number of explanatory variables was reduced to allow the study of some of the most important
variables. These variables were divided by the temporal scale (short, medium or long-term) according to
their influence on domestic water consumption in the region of Lisbon, Portugal. The division was developed
by a group of specialists in sanitary engineering from the National Laboratory for Civil Engineering (LNEC),
consisting of 11 elements. The result was a matrix with the explanatory variables that most influence the
domestic consumption divided by short, medium, and long-terms. As depicted in Table 14, the symbol
represents that a particular key-variable has greater influence on domestic water consumption for the
selected temporal scale.
39
Table 14 – Matrix with the key-variables divided by different temporal scale
Long-term Medium-term Short-term

Categories Sub-categories
(10 – 20 years) (3 – 5 years) (along 1 year)
Economic Pricing
Population (household size)
Population’s age structure
Education/knowledge and
Socio-demographic awareness
Income
Tourism
Housing typology
Temperature
Climate
Rainfall
Condition of home
Infrastructure
networking and pressure
Technological Technical innovation
Regulations and Water restrictions and
ordinances regulations
The last stage of this module is the identification of the trends and uncertainties from the different key-
variables (explanatory variables). Trends can result from projections or predictions. Projections come from
existing scenario studies, such as those carried out by the national statistics institutes, allowing obtain the
trends and uncertainties. Predictions were estimated by the regression analysis of historical data from the
explanatory variables. This analysis allows predicting the values of key-variables to the year of scenario
constructed.
3.2.4. Scenario construction
Once trends and uncertainties have been identified, the main “ingredients” for scenario construction are
available. A simple start is to construct extreme worlds, by putting all positive elements in one and all
negatives in another scenario. Alternatively, the outcomes can be clustered around high vs. low continuity,
or high vs. low surprise.
Scenario construction (Module 3) is the construction of different scenarios based on the key-variables,
trends and uncertainties identified. The inputs for the construction of the scenarios are the demand
prediction and classification models developed in previous works (Loureiro, 2010; Mamade, 2013), in which
are introduced the trends and uncertainties to project the water demand or the daily demand patterns,
respectively.
40
3.3. Characterization of water consumption
The methodology for the characterization of water consumption, including the processing and analysing of
consumption data developed by Loureiro (2010) was adapted in this work for consumption data processing
and to obtain the demand prediction and classification models. Figure 11 show the stages undertaken in this
work. In the following sub-sections are described Module 2 to 4.
Legend:
 developed in this analysis
 not developed in this analysis
Figure 11 – Methodology for the characterization of water consumption developed by Loureiro (2010)
3.3.1. Data processing
Data processing aims to process high volumes of data on water consumption to ensure that the data are
reliable. The data come from different DMA and are often heterogeneous. The data processing allows
obtaining statistical data, normalized series, outliers and consumption events. The data processing includes
the following steps: descriptive analysis, outlier detection, combining data, data normalization and data
reduction.
The first stage of data processing, descriptive analysis, aims to characterize the data and to identify the
potential outliers or less reliable data. In this stage a set of statistics from the original flow data is produced,
because the following steps (e.g., data normalization and outliers removing) transform the data and some
loss of information about the original series may occur. These parameters and statistics allow assessing the
41
availability of data for analysis, as well as developing a preliminary analysis of flow statistics, such as
average, maximum and minimum. In this work, the parameters and statistics calculated for each flow time
series are present in Table 15.
Table 15 – Parameters/Statistics calculated for each flow time series
Parameters/Statistics
Initial time [-]

Final time [-]
Number of days [-]
Total number of records [-]
Availability of records %
In the stage outlier detection, the methodology developed by Loureiro (2010), Mamade (2013) and Loureiro
et al. (2014) is used for the detection and removal of outliers. Outliers are observations that do not follow
the statistical distribution of the bulk of the data (Grubbs, 1969). Loureiro (2010) suggests a classification of
outlier consumption in DMA as follows:
 outlier Type I – marked variation in duration and generally less than 1 h;
 outlier Type II – marked variation in general and lasting more than 1 h;
 outlier Type III – consumption approximately constant and lasting more than 2 hours.
Outlier consumption of Type I or III may be indicative of problems in measurement or data collection
process, such as an inadequate resolution, incorrect parameterization, communication problems and others.
A Type II outlier is more typical of bursts, network operations (e.g., valves, pumps) (Loureiro, 2010). Initially,
in the detection of outliers, the visual observation of the original series, as well as the statistics calculated in
the descriptive analysis stage, to detect data that are atypical compared to the rest of data, must be carried
out (Loureiro, 2010). This work also used a “Symmetric method” developed by Mamade (2013) and Loureiro
et al. (2014). The method consist of an algorithm written in R programming language that uses two statistics,
the median and the , and outliers are detected according to (Mamade, 2013):
(3)
in which
3
Outlier value in the data series [m /h]
3
Median of a set of previous observations defined by the user [m /h]
Threshold value to be defined by the user (with c>0) [-]
3
Robust standard deviation of the observations based on the Qn scale [m /h]
42
The threshold value influences the probability of an observation being detected as an outlier, in this work is
considered a threshold value of c=1.58. Furthermore, a window of twenty observations is defined; this
represents the number of previous observations that are used to calculate the median value. The choice of
this number should represent a good compromise between having a representative number of observations
and avoiding outlier detection to be influencing by seasonal effects of domestic water consumption
(Loureiro et al., 2014). After the outlier detection, these are transform in events, considering an event if
every list of five observations, at least three are classified as outliers (Mamade, 2013).
In the stage combining data the large consumers and the minimum consumption are removed and
representative data are obtained. The existence of large consumers can bias the analysis of consumption in
a given area, since they are characterized by rather high average consumptions and behaviours often
distinct from other clients in the area of analysis. This work aims to study mainly the domestic water
consumption, so the large consumers are deducted and removed from the original series. The
representativeness of the data is important to ensure that the consumption variables calculated are reliable.
In this work the representativeness of the data is checked daily in flow time series. The days of flow time
series with at least 75% of the total values are considered representative. The removal of the minimum
consumption consists to identify and remove the minimum consumption of the flow time series during the
period of night minimum consumption. Loureiro (2010) and Mamade (2013) defined the period of night
minimum consumption from [01:00 to 06:00[. The minimum consumption variable allows providing
important information about the water losses. In the present work the minimum consumption from the flow
series is identified, admitting to be due to water losses, and this value is removal from the consumption data
at every moment.
The data normalization stage consists of to turn the series into a regular time step, previously defined. This
stage is important to normalize consumption data with very different characteristics in the time scale.
Previous work has recommended that the time step is 15 minutes in the data processing in DMA (Coelho et
al., 2006; Loureiro, 2010). Loureiro (2010) developed the application PROFILER that is used in the present
work to normalize flow time series. PROFILER aims to support the processing and analysing of water flow
data, namely to understand the general behaviour of the series. It allows searching for seasonality, to
calculate the average statistics of the raw series and the normalized ones, and to compute consumption
patterns for different types of days (Loureiro, 2010).
3.3.2. Flow data characterization
This module aims at producing information about consumption in terms of consumption variables and
consumption patterns. The first stage, consumption analysis, allows calculating the consumption variables.
The consumption variables studies through the clean flow time series are the following: peaking factors
43
(instantaneous, daily and monthly), average and median consumption (per client and per inhabitant),
minimum night consumption (per client and per service connection) and night consumption (per inhabitant
and per service connection), as depicted in Table 16.
Table 16 – List of consumption variables studied
Consumption variables Expression Meaning
maximum
Instantaneous peaking factors, instantaneous consumption
[-] ̅ ̅ average annual
consumption
Peaking
factors maximum daily
Daily peaking factor, [-]
̅ consumption
Monthly peaking factor, maximum monthly
[-] ̅ consumption
Average/Median consumption ̅ average consumption

̅
per client, ̅ median consumption
Average/Median ̅ / [l/(cl.day)] number of clients
consumption Average/Median consumption
̅
per inhabitant, ̅ number of inhabitants
̅ / [l/(inh.day)]
Minimum night consumption – Minimum night
per client, [l/(cl.day)] consumption
Minimum night
Minimum night consumption
consumption number of service
per service connection,
connections
[l/(sc.day)]
Night consumption per ̅ ̅ average night
Night inhabitant, [l/(inh.h)] consumption
consumption Night consumption per service ̅
connection, [l/(sc.h)]
The consumption modelling stage allows calculating the consumption pattern to evaluate the consumption
throughout the day. The consumption patterns may be presented in dimensionless or dimensional shape. At
first, the consumption at each moment is referred to as a load factor consumption or a consumption factor.
In dimensional form, factor consumption is multiplied at each time by the average daily consumption during
the analysis period (Loureiro, 2010). Figure 12 represents the average flow pattern highlighting the
differences between working days and weekends.
44
Figure 12 – Average water flow pattern during workdays and holidays (Palau et al., 2011)
3.3.3. Demand prediction
This module allows to obtain the classification and prediction models. The first stage, explanatory variables
analysis, consists of the description and analysis of the key-variables (explanatory variables) that are used to
construct the demand scenarios. Loureiro (2010) proposed a methodology for the calculation of explanatory
variables. This methodology consists of the following four steps: (1) Collection and validation of context
data; (2) Combining data; (3) Calculation of explanatory variables; (4) Variables reduction. The context data
can be categorized as follows: clients and billed consumption, infrastructure, hydraulic operation, socio-
demographic, consumption habits, characteristics of facilities and climate. Table 17 presents the type of
data, the requirements and the sources of each data category used in this work.
The category of clients and billed consumption allows obtaining data about the consumption class (e.g.,
st
domestic consumption in the 1 class), billed consumption (e.g., total billed consumption) and number of
clients (e.g., number of customers in each consumption class). This context data comes from Billing and
Customer Management System (SFGC). The climate data category allows obtaining data about temperature
and rainfall.
Table 17 – Type, requirements and sources of explanatory data (Loureiro, 2010)
Data category Data Requirements Sources
 Consumption class  Billed consumption with

maximum bimonthly periodicity Billing and Customer
Clients and billed
 Billed consumption Management System
consumption  Minimum dimension of (SFGC)
 Number of clients historical: 1 year
 Temperature Forecasting models,
Climate Calibrated measurement equipment
 Rainfall measurements
 Population
Socio-demographic Geographically referenced Census
 Dwelling
45
The socio-demographic data category provides information on population (e.g., population's age) and
dwelling (e.g., buildings with 1 or 2 floors). A geoprocessing tool was developed by Loureiro (2010) and later
improved by Mamade (2013) to calculate socio-demographic indexes on the categories of buildings,
dwellings, families and individuals at the DMA level. The tool was developed using ArcGIS® and allows to
automatically obtain the socio-demographic data based on data from the Census at the Statistical
Subsection (SSE) level. These data are possible to obtain from the geographic information base reference
from National Statistics Institute of Portugal (INE). INE (2009) presents the following definition of SSE:
Statistical subsection (SSE)
Statistical subsection is the territorial unit that identifies the smallest homogeneous
construction area or not, existing within the statistical section. Corresponds to the block in
urban areas, the place or part of the place in rural areas or waste areas that may or may not
contain statistical units (isolated).
This geoprocessing tool uses a weighting method to convert statistic data at the SSE level into data at the
DMA level. It is applicable in any water utility in Portugal, as long as the service connections are
geographically referenced.
After the collect of explanatory variables is necessary their reduction for a more simplified representation of
initial data, which can be often redundant. This variables reduction can be developed by two different
processes: Cluster Analysis (CA) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA). In the first case, CA is used to
categorize and to identify DMA groups with similar characteristics. Cluster analysis is a collective term
covering a wide variety of techniques for delineating natural groups or clusters in data sets (Anderberg,
1973). CA is carried out with standardized variables. Results of the cluster analysis can be shown using
dendrograms (i.e., tree diagrams). The analysis is carried out using the Ward´s method and Euclidean
distances and the clusters are obtained by selecting a cut-off line.
Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is probably the most popular multivariate statistical technique and it is
used by almost all scientific disciplines. It is also likely to be the oldest multivariate technique (Abdi and
Williams, 2010). The central idea of PCA is to reduce the dimensionality of a data set consisting of a large
number of interrelated variables, while retaining as much as possible of the variation present in the data set.
This is achieved by transforming to a new set of variables, the principal components, which are uncorrelated
(Jolliffe, 2005). The first principal component is required to have the largest possible variance. The second
component is computed under the constraint of being orthogonal to the first component and to have the
largest possible inertia. The values of these new variables for the observations are called factor scores, and
these factors scores can be interpreted geometrically as the projections of the observations into the
principal components (Abdi and Williams, 2010). In addition to the analysis of the factors and their explained
46
variance is also analysed the Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) test. KMO measures of sampling adequacy and
corresponds to a coefficient that varies between 0 and 1. A minimum KMO score of 0.50 is considered
necessary to reliably use factor analysis. Scores over 0.80 are considered very good (Frohlich and
Westbrook, 2001).
The last stage corresponds to the construction of classification or prediction models. Depending on the type
of demand that is intended to predict - quantitative or qualitative - is recommend the use of predictive or
classification models, respectively (Han and Kamber, 2006). Thus, the classification models are particularly
appropriated to predict qualitative variables, such as demand pattern, through the decision tree. The
method of decision trees is a data analysis technique that produces results for easy viewing and
interpretation (Loureiro, 2010). This method was implemented in R software. The prediction models are
more appropriate to predict demand variables that are quantitative, through regression analysis.
Regression analysis aims at develop the empirical relations for consumption variables from the clusters and
the principal components. In most types, one variable is usually taken to be a response or dependent
variable – that is a variable to be predicted from other variables. The other variables are called predictor or
independent variables (Kleinbaum et al., 2013). Montgomery et al. (2012) and Chatterjee and Hadi (2013)
presented the following form of linear regression model:
(4)
in which
: Dependent variable;
: Regression parameters or coefficients;
: Independent variables;
: Random error, representing the discrepancy in the approximation.
The measures of goodness-of-fit are important parameters to evaluate the regressions obtained. Thus, the
following measures are studied: Standard Deviation (SD), adjusted r-square ( ) and p-value. The Standard
Deviation (SD) of a random variable is simply the positive square root of the variance (Wooldridge, 2009).
The adjusted r-square represents the quality of the adjustment. A value close to 1 indicates that the
adjustment of the regression is very good and the linear regression can explain almost all the variation in the
dependent variables. Adjusted r-square is a modification of r-square that adjusts to the number of
independent variables in a model. R-square always increases when a new independent variable is added to a
model, however adjusted r-square increases only if the new independent variable improves the model. P-
value was another measure of goodness-of-fit, wherein the null hypothesis H0 is not reject when the p-value
is, for example, less than 0.05. According to Devore (2011) p-value is the probability, calculated assuming
47
that the null hypothesis (H 0) is true, of obtaining a value of the test statistic at least as contradictory to H0 as
the value calculated from the available sample.
Besides the measures of goodness-of-fit, other measures are studied such as: the Variance Inflation Factor
(VIF) measure of degree of multicollinearity and Cook’s distance to detect the outliers in the regression
model. The VIF is a measure of the degree of multicollinearity between independent variables in a
regression model (O’brien, 2007). Multicollinearity can inflate the variance amongst the variables in the
model. These inflated variances are problematic in regression because some variables add very little or even
no new and independent information to the model. A general rule is that the VIF should not exceed the
value of 10 (Robinson and Schumacker, 2009). A VIF of 10 indicates that (all other things being equal) the
variance of the regression coefficient is 10 times greater than it would have been if the independent variable
had been linearly independent of the other independent variable in the analysis (O’brien, 2007). Cook’s
distance is often used to assess the influence of single observations or sets of observations in the linear
regression model (Cook, 1977). Cook’s distance, eliminate the gross outliers for which Cook’s distance
exceeds 1.
This chapter presented a proposed methodology for the construction of scenarios based on the Scenario
Planning Approach. The methodology consists of six modules: 1. Scope definition, 2. Scenario
characterization, 3. Scenario construction, 4. Robustness Testing, 5. Results development and 6. Embed new
policies. This methodology was applied for the construction of demand scenarios in water distribution
systems to short, medium and long-terms. In this study only the Modules 1-3 were fully applied to project
water demand, in terms of demand variables and daily demand patterns.
In the Module Scope definition, the temporal and spatial scales were established according with the decision
levels. The construction of demand scenarios can be developed in three different decision levels:
 Strategic: construction of scenarios for long-term (10 – 20 years).
 Tactical: construction of scenarios for medium-term (3 – 5 years).
 Operational: construction of scenarios for short-term (along 1 year).
In what concern to the spatial scale the demand scenarios can be constructed at the distribution system,
network sector and DMA level. The methodology proposed by Godet (2006) was adapted to construct the
demand scenarios to short, medium and long-terms.
In Module Scenario characterization the identification of the factors (key-variables), trends and uncertainties
are carried out. The domestic water consumption was characterized, through the division of key-variables by
48
the different temporal scales according to their influence on domestic water consumption in the region of
Lisbon, Portugal. The division was developed by a group of specialists in sanitary engineering from the
National Laboratory for Civil Engineering (LNEC), consisting of 11 elements. Short-term key-variables were
associated with seasonality (e.g., tourism, temperature and rainfall). Medium-term key-variables were
associated with economy (e.g., water pricing), system infrastructure, technologies, regulation and
ordinances (e.g., water restrictions). Finally, long-term key-variables were associated with socio-
demographics (e.g., the household size and the housing typology). Trends can be identified through the
projection or the prediction methods. Being the projection the best method since it also allows obtaining
the uncertainties associated to the factors (key-variables) that influence water consumption.
Module Scenario construction allows to construct the scenarios using the trends and uncertainties identified
and the prediction models selected. Trends and uncertainties are incorporated in these prediction models to
project water demand, allowing the construction of different scenarios.
The methodology for the characterization of water consumption, including the processing and analysing the
consumption data was adapted from Loureiro (2010). This methodology allows processing consumption
data and obtaining the classification and the prediction models.
The proposed methodology presents the following main innovative aspects:
 a new classification of temporal and spatial scale for construction of demand scenarios in water
distribution systems;
 the use of scenario construction methodology proposed by Godet (2006) in an area never before
applied: water distribution;
 the introduction of trends and uncertainties associated to the factors (key-variables) that influence
water consumption in construction of demand scenarios.
49
50
Chapter 4 – Influence of temperature on water consumption
4. INFLUENCE OF TEMPERATURE ON WATER CONSUMPTION
4.1. Introduction
The current chapter aims at the inclusion of the variable temperature in the previously Mamade (2013)’s
water demand prediction models. The climate effects should be incorporated in water demand models using
associated variables, such as rainfall or temperature (Miaou, 1990). Loh and Coghlan (2003) argued that
consumption in outdoor uses is very sensitive to climate, mainly with temperature. The methodology
proposed by Loureiro (2010) and described in previous chapter was adapted to develop this analysis based
on 10 DMA located in different Portuguese Water Distribution Systems (WDS) in the centre-south of the
country. A cluster analysis is carried out to identify the most important factors that contribute to increasing
consumption as a function of temperature. A detailed description of the results is presented.
4.2. Selection and characterization of analysis areas
Initially, the study started with 44 DMA belonging to different Portuguese WDS distributed throughout the
country. In order to select only the DMA where the temperature has a significant influence on consumption,
the following variables were considered in this analysis: domestic billed consumption, public billed
rd th
consumption, domestic consumption in the 3 and 4 billing class and economic mobility.
Criteria established in the previous variables were applied to the original set of 44 DMA. A total number of
10 DMA were selected. These are located in the districts of Lisbon and Setúbal, referred to as “Lis” and
“Set”, respectively: seven correspond to the district of Lisbon, with the flow series of the years 2006 and
2007, and the remaining three DMA to the district of Setúbal, with the flow series of the year 2011. DMA’s
general characteristics are presented in Table 18. The description of each variable and the criteria used to
select the DMA are presented in Table 19.
Table 18 – General characteristics of DMA selected
Characteristic Interval Average value Median value
Number of clients 942 – 4414 2587 2156

Number of domestic clients 847 – 4161 2371 1962
Number of inhabitants 1956 – 9312 5132 4156
Number of service connections 222 – 3541 1333 1310
51
Table 19 – Criteria used for DMA selection
Variable Definition Criteria
Domestic billed consumption is the ratio between the domestic billed

consumption and the total billed consumption. Domestic consumption
constitutes the main component of urban consumption, corresponding to
Domestic billed
both indoor and outdoor uses (Almeida et al., 2006). A DMA is considered
consumption > 50%
to have a predominantly domestic consumption when the domestic billed
[%]
consumption is higher than 80% of the total billed consumption (Loureiro,
2010). In this analysis DMA with domestic billed consumption higher than
50% were select.
Public billed consumption is the ratio between the public billed
consumption and the total billed consumption. The public consumption
Public billed
includes the water uses in fountains, street washing, irrigation, gardening
consumption > 5%
and cleaning of sewers (Almeida et al., 2006). This is an important factor
[%]
because the public consumption increases with the temperature, mainly
due to irrigation of public spaces.
This variable consists of the ratio between the domestic consumption in
rd th
the 3 and 4 billing class and the total domestic billed consumption in all
Domestic st th
classes (1 to 4 billing class). IRAR (2009) classifies the monthly water
consumption in rd 3 th
rd th consumption interval of 3 billing class between 15 and 25 m and the 4 > 5%
the 3 and 4 3
billing class volumes higher than 25 m . These consumption classes are
billing class [%]
associated to large domestic consumers, usually related to outdoor
activities, such as irrigation and swimming pools.
Economic mobility index consists of the ratio between the number of
residents employed in the tertiary sector and the number of total
Economic
residents (Mamade, 2013). Loh and Coghlan (2003) verified that the low- > 70%
mobility [%]
rise buildings with high income has a higher consumption in the summer
mainly due to increase of outdoor uses.
4.3. Characterization of water consumption
In this chapter, temperature was the only explanatory variable analysed to characterize the water
consumption. Temperature data were collected from the site www.wunderground.com, which provides the
average daily temperature measured at different weather stations. For the Lisbon district DMA, the
temperature data from the weather station of Lisbon airport for the years 2006 and 2007 were collected.
For the Setúbal DMA, the average daily temperature from the weather station of Várzea for the year 2011
was collected (Figure 13).
In this study the independent variables used to characterize the domestic consumption were the average
daily temperature and the average monthly temperature. These explanatory variables mainly influence the
outdoor domestic water use. Climate variables, such as the temperature, induce short-term seasonal
variations (Miaou, 1990), thus, the temperature was the only variable used to characterize the annual
consumption at the DMA level.
52
35
30
Temperature [°C]
25
20
15
10
July
May
Oct.
Apr.
Aug.
Jan.
Mar.
June
Sept.
Nov.
Dec.
Fev.
Feb.
Months
Lisbon - 2006 Lisbon - 2007 Setúbal - 2011
Figure 13 – Average daily temperature in the weather stations of Lisbon (2006 and 2007) and Setúbal (2011)
4.4. Data processing
4.4.1. Descriptive analysis and data normalization
In the descriptive analysis, the original flow series of each DMA were described by a set of parameters
presented in Table 20, namely the initial and final time of historical data, the number of days of the analysis,
the number of time-steps of available data and the data availability. The last parameter, data availability,
represents the ratio between the number of time-steps of available data and the total number of records
that are expect with a fixed time-step for the period of analysis, in this work each time-step corresponds to
15 minutes. The majority of DMA presents a complete year of historical data. The data availability is higher
than 80% in most of DMA, having a reduced number of periods without records from the consumption data
collected, except for VEN_Set DMA that presents a data availability less than 60%, which has a large period
without records, including the months of June, July, August and September.
Table 20 – Original flow time series parameters
DMA No. of No. of time-steps of Data availability

DMA Initial time Final time
No. days available data ratio
1 M_Lis 01/01/2006 00:00 31/12/2006 23:45 365 28184 80.4%
2 NO_Lis 04/01/2007 00:00 17/12/2007 12:15 351 30984 92.0%
3 FC_Lis 01/01/2006 00:00 19/12/2006 10:15 353 28997 85.6%
4 CS_Lis 01/01/2007 00:00 31/12/2007 23:30 365 34460 98.3%
5 FM_Lis 01/01/2007 00:00 31/12/2007 23:30 365 34445 98.3%
6 LP_Lis 02/01/2007 10:00 30/11/2007 23:45 333 31937 99.9%
7 QUE_Lis 02/01/2007 09:45 31/12/2007 23:45 364 33906 97.0%
8 BSS_Set 01/01/2011 00:15 30/12/2011 23:45 364 28400 81.3%
9 SDM_Set 01/01/2011 00:15 31/12/2011 13:45 365 33138 94.6%
10 VEN_Set 01/01/2011 00:15 31/12/2011 00:00 365 20275 57.9%
53
Flow values of each DMA were also characterized. Large differences between the DMA flow values are
expected, in terms of average, median, maximum and minimum flow as well as of the number of domestic
clients, despite the DMA being located in the same region of the country (centre-south region). The flow
values mentioned are affected by the presence of outliers, thus, only the average and the median flow are
calculated for each flow time series. Most maximum and minimum flow values of the original time series are
outliers and their analysis is not necessary at this stage. Results show a major variability in terms of flow
values (see Figure 14). As usual, the average flow is more affected by the presence of outliers than the
3
median flow, however the results shows that average flow varies from 26.83 to 108.58 m /h very similar
3
with the median flow that range from 27.00 and 104.29 m /h. Concerning the domestic clients in DMA
analysed the number of domestic clients varies between 847 and 4161.
The data normalization allows obtaining the flow time series normalized with a step time of 15 minutes.
These flow series were used in the next stages of the analysis.
120 4500
Number of domestic clients

4000
100
3500
80 3000
Flow [m3/h]
2500
60
2000
40 1500
1000
20
500
0 0
M_Lis
NO_Lis
SDM_Set
FC_Lis
CS_Lis
BSS_Set
QUE_Lis
FM_Lis
LP_Lis
VEN_Set
DMA
Average flow Median flow Domestic clients
Figure 14 – Flow values and total of domestic clients for each DMA
4.4.2. Outlier detection and cleaning
The outlier detection using the “Symmetric method” developed by Mamade (2013)and Loureiro et al. (2014)
was carried out. The method consist of an algorithm written in R programming language that uses two
statistics, the median and the (robust standard deviation of the observations based on the Qn scale).
Figure 15 shows the identification of outliers of Type I and II from the SDM_Set DMA. Loureiro (2010)
classified the outliers of Type I with a duration less than 1 hour and the outliers of Type II by a variable
duration, lasting more than 1 hour. The outliers of Type III, characterized by constant levels of consumption,
were not identified in the selected DMA. The outliers detected were removed from the flow time series in
order to obtain the clean flow time series.
54
40
35
30
Flow [m3/h]
25
20
15
10
0
13/05/2011 14/05/2011 15/05/2011 16/05/2011 17/05/2011 18/05/2011
Time
Normalized Medians Outliers Type I Outliers Type II
Figure 15 – Outlier detection of Type I and Type II from SDM_Set DMA
The effects of outlier removal are particularly visible in maximum and minimum flow (Figure 16). In all DMA
selected the maximum flow is an outlier and was removed from the original series. The SDM_Set DMA
presents the largest variation of maximum flow in original and cleaned series ranging between 534.17 and
3
136.23 m /h, respectively. In what concerns to the minimum flow the QUE_Lis DMA presents the largest
3
variation between the original and cleaned series varying from 1.3 to 17.33 m /h, respectively. In FM_Lis
3
and SDM_Set DMA the minimum flow remain equal in the original and cleaned series, 2 and 13.43 m /h,
respectively for each DMA.
18
500 16
Maximum flow [m3/h]
Minimum flow [m3/h]
14
400
12
300 10
8
200
6
4
100
2
0 0
M_Lis
NO_Lis
BSS_Set
FC_Lis
CS_Lis
QUE_Lis
SDM_Set
FM_Lis
LP_Lis
VEN_Set
M_Lis
NO_Lis
BSS_Set
FC_Lis
CS_Lis
QUE_Lis
SDM_Set
LP_Lis
FM_Lis
VEN_Set
DMA DMA
Original Series Cleaned series Original series Cleaned series
(a) (b)
Figure 16 – Effects of outlier removal in basic flow statistics: a) maximum, and b) minimum
55
4.4.3. Combining data
Combining data includes the removal of large consumers, the achievement of representative data and the
removal of the minimum consumption. Large consumers were removed from the total consumption in the
DMA due to their behaviours being often distinct from the areas of the other domestic clients. This irregular
behaviour can lead to a false detection of outliers and it is important that they are previously removed from
the total consumption in the DMA. The minimum consumption was removed from the original series,
admitting to be due to water losses. The achievement of representative data was an important step to
guarantee that data is reliable. The days of flow time series with at least 75% of the total daily data were
considered representative. Figure 17 shows for each DMA the number of days of cleaned series and the
number of days removed without 75% of the daily data. The number of days of cleaned series range
between 181 and 361 days, corresponding, respectively to VEN_Set DMA and CS_Lis DMA. The number of
days removed with less than 75% of daily data varies between 0 and 82, associated to CS_Lis and BSS_Set
DMA, respectively.
Number of days with less than 75% of

400 90
Number of days of cleaned series
350 80
300 70
60
250
daily data
50
200
40
150
30
100 20
50 10
0 0
M_Lis
NO_Lis
BSS_Set
FC_Lis
CS_Lis
SDM_Set
QUE_Lis
LP_Lis
FM_Lis
VEN_Set
DMA
Days of cleaned series Days with less than 75% of daily data
Figure 17 – Number of days of cleaned series and days with less than 75% of daily data for each DMA
4.5. Data analysis
4.5.1. Consumption variables
Consumption variables analysed were the following: average consumption per client (daily and monthly) and
median consumption per client (daily and monthly). The Portuguese Regulator of Water Services and Wastes
(ERSAR) published the daily consumption per capita the year of 2011 as 145 l/(inh.day). This value was
multiplied by the ratio between the average number of inhabitants and the average number of domestic
clients (i.e., 2.2), resulting the reference daily consumption per client equal to 319 l/(cl.day). The values of
56
consumption variables calculated from cleaned flow series are summarized in Table 21 and the average,
median, maximum and minimum consumption and the reference value per client are presented in Figure 18.
Table 21 – Consumption variables calculated from cleaned flow series
Consumption variables Data Interval Average value Median value
Average consumption per Daily 332.88 – 892.28 515.00 476.16

client [l/(cl.day)] Monthly 374.96 – 877.56 566.93 519.53
Median consumption per Daily 341.03 – 873.01 510.44 467.04

client [l/(cl.day)] Monthly 371.96 – 861.16 518.53 572.56
In this analysis, all DMA present average and median consumptions higher than the reference value (i.e., 319
l/(cl.day)). M_Lis and NO_Lis DMA show the highest average daily consumption of 628.26 and 892.28
l/(cl.day), respectively. The remaining DMA from the Lisbon district corresponding to FC_Lis, CS_Lis, FM_Lis,
LP_Lis and QUE_Lis DMA present the lowest values of average and median consumption compared to the
other DMA. The interval of average daily consumption of these five DMA range between 332.88 and 452.88
l/(cl.day), corresponding, respectively, to LP_Lis and FM_Lis DMA . DMA from the Setúbal district present
intermediate consumption values. No large variations between the average and median flow are observed,
which means that most outliers were detected and removed from the original series.
900 4000
Maximum consumption [l/(cl.day)]

Average, median and minimum
800 3500
consumption [l/(cl.day)]
700 3000
600
2500
500
2000
400
1500
300
200 1000
100 500
0 0
FC_Lis
CS_Lis
FM_Lis
M_Lis
BSS_Set
SDM_Set
VEN_Set
NO_Lis
LP_Lis
QUE_Lis
DMA
Average consumption Median consumption ERSAR 2011
Mininum consumption Maximum consumption
Figure 18 – Average, median, maximum and minimum consumption and the reference value per client of each DMA
4.5.2. Cluster analysis
The aim of this analysis is to group the DMA in clusters according to the values of the analysed variables
present in Table 19, and thereby, to increase the knowledge about the main variables that reflect the
influence of temperature on water consumption. The variables analysis was carried out using the Census
data from different years depending on the flow time series associated. The years of flow time series and of
the analysed variables data are presented in Table 22. The Lisbon DMA have flow time series from the years
57
2006 and 2007, however the analysed variables data associated refers to the year 2001. In Setúbal DMA
flow time series and the analysed variables data are from the same year, 2011.
Table 22 – Year of flow time series and of analysed variables data
DMA district Year of flow time series Year of analysed variables data
Lisbon 2006/2007 2001

Setúbal 2011 2011
The values of each analysed variable for each DMA are presented in Table 23. M_Lis and NO_Lis DMA
present the lowest domestic billed consumptions, whose value is approximately 50% and a reasonably high
public billed consumption. On the other hand, Setúbal DMA show the highest percentage of consumption in
rd th
3 and 4 billing class compared to the remaining DMA. The economic mobility variable presents lower
variability between the DMA, but always greater than 70%; thus, this variable was considered as a criterion
variable but it was not considered for the cluster analysis.
Table 23 – Analysed variables for cluster analysis
Billed consumption [%] Consumption billing class [%] Economic

DMA rd th
Domestic Public 3 class 4 class mobility [%]
M_Lis 53.67 21.66 4.46 5.05 84.93

NO_Lis 52.77 37.22 16.99 15.14 87.17
FC_Lis 72.85 11.25 7.19 10.35 85.65
CS_Lis 87.39 5.11 14.81 17.60 86.61
FM_Lis 71.10 7.09 9.98 10.34 83.94
LP_Lis 78.42 13.09 11.72 10.55 73.68
QUE_Lis 78.78 8.39 8.45 8.22 81.52
BSS_Set 80.48 8.72 26.20 29.24 75.25
SDM_Set 67.92 22.85 20.92 41.59 79.29
VEN_Set 83.33 11.21 25.08 41.60 77.16
The analysed variables data of each DMA (billed consumption and consumption billing class) were used for
the cluster analysis through the STATISTICA® software. Three well-defined clusters were identified,
constituted by the following DMA (Figure 19):
 Cluster 1: NO_Lis and M_Lis DMA;
 Cluster 2: SDM_Set, VEN_Set and BSS_Set DMA;
 Cluster 3: QUE_Lis, LP_Lis, CS_Lis, FM_Lis and FC_Lis DMA.
58
Figure 19 – Dendrogram resulting from the cluster analysis
In order to identify the main differences between the three clusters, the following consumption variables
were analysed:
 average monthly consumption [l/(cl.month)] considering the annual flow series and all weekdays;
 average daily consumption [l/(cl.day)] considering the annual flow series and only the working days.
Both of these variables are plotted with temperature in Figure 20 to Figure 22, respectively for each cluster.
The first cluster – Cluster 1 – is composed of M_Lis and NO_Lis DMA (Figure 20).
45500 1500
Average daily consumption [l/(cl.day)]
40500
Average monthly consumption
1300
35500
1100
[l/(cl.month)]
30500
25500 900
20500
700
15500
500
10500
5500 300
5 10 15 20 25 5 10 15 20 25
Temperature [°C] Temperature [°C]
M_Lis NO_Lis M_Lis NO_Lis
(a) (b)
Figure 20 – Consumption as a function of temperature for Cluster 1: a) average monthly consumption, and b) average
daily consumption
59
These DMA have the highest public billed consumption (>20%) and the lowest domestic billed consumption
(ca. 50%) (see Table 23). Besides, this cluster corresponds to the DMA with the largest average and median
flows per client, as highlight in Figure 18. In the both analyses, monthly and daily, the M_Lis DMA presents a
higher consumption as function of temperature and corresponds to the DMA with more public billed
consumption, showing the importance of temperature on non-domestic consumption (mainly the public
consumption). Cluster 2 is composed of the DMA from the Setúbal district, BSS_Set, SDM_Set and VDM_Set
rd th
(Figure 21). These DMA show the largest percentage of consumption in 3 and 4 billing class (between 10-
30%). Cluster 3 corresponds to the remaining of the DMA from the Lisbon district (Figure 22).
33000 1300

29000 1100
[l/(cl.month)]
25000 900
21000 700
17000 500
13000 300
10 15 20 25 5 15 25 35
BSS_Set SDM_Set VEN_Set BSS_Set SDM_Set VEN_Set
(a) (b)
daily consumption
18000
800
17000
16000
700
15000
[l/(cl.month)]
14000 600
13000
500
12000
11000 400
10000
300
9000
8000 200
5 10 15 20 25 5 15 25
CS_Lis FM_Lis FC_Lis LP_Lis QUE_Lis CS_Lis FM_Lis FC_Lis LP_Lis QUE_Lis
(a) (b)
daily consumption
60
The clusters identified are well-defined in the average monthly and daily consumption analysis, as depicted
in Figure 23. Results show that public consumption is the analysed variable which reflects largest influence
rd th
of the temperature on water consumption, follow the consumption in the 3 and 4 billing class.

45000 1600
40000
Average monthy comsumption
1400
35000
1200
30000
[l/(cl.month)]
25000 1000
20000
800
15000
600
10000
5000 400
0 200
8 13 18 23 5 15 25 35
Temperature [°C] Temperature [C]
Cluster 1 Cluster 2 Cluster 3 Cluster 1 Cluster 2 Cluster 3
(a) (b)
Figure 23 – Representation of the three clusters identified: a) average monthly consumption, and b) average daily
consumption
4.5.3. Regression analysis
Simple linear regression analysis of average monthly and daily consumption ( = dependent
variables) of each cluster identified as function of average monthly or daily temperature ( = independent
variables), respectively, were carried out using the STATISTICA® software. In each analysis, the parameters
0 and β1 were estimated and represent the increase (positive value) or the decrease (negative value) of
dependent variable associated to a unit variation of the independent value. In terms of measures of
goodness-of-fit, the following were calculated: Standard Deviation (SD), r-square ( ) and p-value. Results of
parameters of regression model of average monthly and daily consumption for each cluster identified are
presented in Table 24.
Initially, the regression analysis of average monthly consumption (dependent variable), considering the
annual period, without distinguishing between weekdays, weekends and holidays, as function of average
monthly temperature (independent variable) was carried out. Results show a good adjustment with an ̅̅̅
of 0.61 and for the three clusters the p-value is approximately null. In what concerns to the Cluster 1, the
of 0.74 means that Cluster 1 is explained in 74% by the average monthly temperature. Cluster 3 is the one
that contains the lowest adjusted r-square ( =0.45), being the cluster with more DMA associated. As
expected, the average monthly consumption increases with the temperature in all clusters, though with
different ratios: Cluster 1 (̂ 1=1547.27), Cluster 2 (̂ 1=757.43) and Cluster 3 (̂ 1=287.62).
61
Table 24 – Parameters of regression model of average monthly and daily consumption for each cluster
Explaining Regression Standard ̅̅̅

Clusters p-value
component coefficients Deviation
Constant ( ̂ ) -3707.80 3791.58
Cluster 1 0.000002 0.74
Average monthly
Temperature ( ̂ ) 1547.27 216.11

consumption
Constant ( ̂ ) 8379.63 1786.51

Cluster 2 0.000000 0.64 0.61
Temperature ( ̂ ) 757.43 98.75
Constant ( ̂ ) 7628.18 808.27

Cluster 3 0.000000 0.45
Temperature ( ̂ ) 287.62 45.37
Constant ( ̂ ) 72.74 32.10
Cluster 1 0.000000 0.56
Temperature ( ̂ ) 41.58 1.79
Average daily
consumption
Constant ( ̂ ) 72.71 4.85

Cluster 2 0.000000 0.56 0.49
Temperature ( ̂ ) 6.24 0.25
Constant ( ̂ ) 278.13 6.35
Cluster 3 0.000000 0.34
Temperature ( ̂ ) 8.46 0.35
The regression analysis of average daily consumption (dependent variable), considering the annual period
and only the working days, as function of average daily temperature (independent variable) was carried out.
Despite the average r-square being quite low ( =0.49), the quality of-the-fit was quite good in Clusters 1
and 2 ( =0.56). In all clusters, the r-square decreased compared to the previous regression analysis, since
the seasonality is more visible to the average monthly consumption than to the daily consumption. The
average daily consumption increases with the temperature in all clusters: Cluster 1 (̂ 1=72.74), Cluster 2
(̂ 1=72.71) and Cluster 3 (̂ 1=278.13).
The average and median (monthly and daily) consumptions were compared using the regression lines of the
two consumption variables. Figure 24 represents the regression lines for each cluster, where the solid line is
associated to average (monthly and daily) consumption and the dashed line is related to median (monthly
and daily) consumption. The median is the value (belonging or not to the data set) dividing the data set into
two subsets of the same size. This measure of central tendency is less affected by the presence of outliers
than the average value. The analysis of average and median for the monthly and daily consumption shows
that, in all the clusters, the variation between the two consumption variables is minimum reduced.
However, Cluster 2 and 3 presents the largest variation in regression lines for the average and median in
daily analysis. This variation in these clusters between the two consumption variables is higher in the
minimum consumption when the temperature is lower, corresponding to the winter period. The differences
in regression lines for the average and median (monthly and daily) consumption are not significant in terms
of measures of goodness-of-fit, highlighting the contribution of the detention and removal of outliers.
62
1200

Average monthly consumption 40000
35000 1000
30000
800
[l/(cl.month)]
25000
20000 600
15000
400
10000
200
5000
0 0
10
Temperature [°C] 25 10 Temperature [°C] 25
Cluster 1 (Average) Cluster 1 (Median) Cluster 1 (Average) Cluster 1 (Median)
(a) (b)
Figure 24 – Regression lines for each cluster considering the average and median: a) monthly consumption, and b) daily
consumption
Last, regression lines of average monthly and daily consumption for each cluster were represented, in the
same scale in Figure 25, to compare the results of the two analyses. The average monthly consumption was
divided by the number of days of each month to get the consumption variables in the same scale [l/(cl.day)].
Cluster 1 presents the largest variation compared with the remaining of the clusters, mainly in the minimum
consumption corresponding to the winter period. The average daily temperature reaches values lower than
the average monthly temperature. In the daily analysis for the temperature range of 5C to 10C,
consumption presents very few variations, constituting a baseline (see, for example, Figure 20). This fact
contributes to the establishment of a regression line for average daily consumption, where the consumption
is larger when the temperature is lower compared with the regression line for average monthly
consumption.
Average daily consumption [l/cl.day)]
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
10 Temperature [°C] 25
Cluster 1 (Monthly) Cluster 2 (Monthly) Cluster 3 (Monthly)
Cluster 1 (Daily) Cluster 2 (Daily) Cluster 3 (Daily)
Figure 25 – Regression lines for each cluster considering the average monthly and daily analysis
63
The current chapter presented the analysis of the influence of temperature on the water consumption, in
order to incorporate this independent variable into the Mamade (2013)’s demand prediction models. The
temperature is a seasonal variable influenced mainly by the outdoor uses. The methodology developed by
Loureiro (2010) for the characterization of water consumption, including the processing and analysing of
consumption data was adapted in this analysis.
Criteria were established for the selection of the DMA. The following criterion variables were considered:
rd th
domestic billed consumption, public billed consumption, domestic consumption in the 3 and 4 billing class
and economic mobility. The data processing in the original flow series of a total of 10 DMA was carried out,
including the descriptive analysis, the data normalization, the outlier detection and the combining data, in
order to obtain the cleaned flow time series reliable to be used as an input in following stages.
The average daily temperature data were collected from the site www.wundergroung.com. A cluster
analysis based on the analysed variables data (domestic billed consumption, public billed consumption and
rd th
domestic consumption in the 3 and 4 billing class) was carried out. This analysed aims to group the DMA
wherein the analysed variables were similar and, thus, to identify the variables that best explain the
influence of the temperature on the consumption. Three clusters well-defined were identified.
Results from this analysis show that the analysed variable more important in reflect the influence of
temperature on water consumption is the public billed consumption. DMA with the largest percentage of
public billed consumption present the highest consumptions in the summer period. Being the public
consumption associated mainly with irrigation of public spaces. Another important analysed variable is the
rd th
domestic consumption in the 3 and 4 billing class. These consumptions are related to outdoor uses during
the summer period.
It is also concluded that the differences between the variables of average and median consumption were
not significant, showing the importance of detection and removing the outliers from the original flow series.
On the other hand, the analysis between the average monthly and daily consumption was carried out,
placing the two consumption variables in the same scale of average daily consumption per client. This
analysis has shown very few differences between the two consumption variables.
This chapter highlighted the importance of incorporating the temperature in the study of water
consumption, mainly in the water demand models, due to their influence on the outdoor uses. Being a
seasonal variable, temperature has a higher impact on the study of consumption in the short-term (annual
period).
64
Chapter 5 – Demand scenarios at the district meter area level
5. DEMAND SCENARIOS AT THE DISTRICT METER AREA LEVEL
5.1. Introduction
The main objective of a drinking water utility should be to ensure that, under normal and emergency
conditions, drinking water is available on a continuous basis (ISO 24512: 2007). This requires that water
supplied meets water demand with an adequate level of service. The development of demand scenarios is of
the utmost importance for the reliable projection of demand variables (e.g., peaking factors and minimum
night demand) as well as of the average daily behaviour for a given weekday or season.
The present chapter aims to develop demand scenarios to project the demand variables and the daily
demand patterns in the short and long-terms at the DMA level. The construction of demand scenarios will
be based on the previous works of demand prediction models developed by Loureiro (2010) and Mamade
(2013). The innovation of the demand prediction models developed in this work is the incorporation of the
temperature variable to explain the demand variables and the introduction of trends and uncertainties for
each independent variable to project the demand variables and daily demand patterns. Demand scenarios
are developed based on 21 DMA located on different Portuguese water distribution systems distributed
along the country. The chapter presents a detailed description of the results.
5.2. Selection and characterization of analysis areas
The DMA studied are located in different Portuguese water distribution systems distributed throughout the
country, belonging to the following districts: Braga, Oporto, Lisbon and Setúbal, referred to as “Bra”, “Por”,
“Lis” and “Set”, respectively. The total number of DMA studied was 21 with flow data series ranging from
the years 2010 to 2012. DMA’s general characteristics are presented in Table 25.
Table 25 – General characteristics of DMA studied
Characteristic Interval Average value Median value
Number of clients 441 – 5185 1943 1529

Number of domestic clients 440 – 4514 1782 1528
Number of inhabitants 1940 – 15898 4869 3989
Number of service connections 168 – 5863 1542 1130
Network length [km] 6 – 152 44 39
The number of clients of DMA varies between 441 and 5185, corresponding to R12_Por and DEL_Lis DMA,
respectively. Being the DEL_Lis DMA considered of large dimension, with the number of clients higher than
4500, most DMA in the north of country (ADE_Bra, FRA_Bra, SAR_Bra, MFR_Bra, VIL_Bra, R04_Por, R07_Por,
65
R08_Por and R12_Por) are considered of small dimension, with less than 1000 clients (Figure 26). The
majority of clients are domestic clients; however in the R06_Por and R08_Por DMA the number of clients
corresponds to the number of domestic clients. Most studied DMA show low density of clients per service
connection (<3 clients/service connection) and only 5 DMA of the Lisbon district present a greater density
not being, however, considered a high density of clients per service connection (>10 clients/service
connection). The average number of inhabitants per client of DMA was approximately 3. DMA from north of
the country have the highest ratio between the inhabitants and clients. DMA with the higher service
connection density (>50 service connections/km) are GAL_Bra, R06_Por, R07_Por and FAR_Set.
Number of clients/service connection

Number of clients and domestic
6000 10
5000
8
and inhabitants/client
4000
6
clients
3000
4
2000
1000 2
0 0
MFR_Bra
R12_Por
CMA_Lis
TFM_Lis
SDM_Set
ADE_Bra
R04_Por
R06_Por
R07_Por
R08_Por
BSS_Set
DEL_Lis
FAB_Lis
QJP_Lis
FRA_Bra
GAM_Bra
SAR_Bra
VIL_Bra
GAL_Bra
MFZ_Lis
VEN_Set
DMA
Number of clients Number of domestic clients
Number of clients/service connection Number of inhabitants/client
(a)
Number of service connections
Density of service connections

7000 140
6000 120
5000 100
4000 80
3000 60 [sc/km]
2000 40
1000 20
0 0
MFR_Bra
CMA_Lis
TFM_Lis
SDM_Set
ADE_Bra
R04_Por
R06_Por
R07_Por
R08_Por
R12_Por
BSS_Set
DEL_Lis
FAB_Lis
QJP_Lis
FRA_Bra
GAM_Bra
SAR_Bra
VIL_Bra
GAL_Bra
MFZ_Lis
VEN_Set
DMA
Number of service connections Density of service connections
(b)
Figure 26 – DMA's characteristics: a) number of clients, domestic clients, clients per service connections and inhabitants
per client, and b) number of service connections and density of service connections
The districts considered in this analysis present different characteristic in terms of socio-demography,
buildings, economic and individuals’ mobility, and climate. Districts of Oporto and Braga are mainly
characterized by rural areas with lower density of population, while the districts belonging to the centre-
66
south of the country (Lisbon and Setúbal) present higher density of population, corresponding mainly to
urban areas. DMA in the north of the country present a higher percentage of building with 1 or 2 floors
(88%) than DMA from the centre-south (51%), contributing to a lower number of service connections and
network length in the DMA belonging to the district of Lisbon and Setúbal, as depicted in Figure 27. In terms
of family size, there are only 33% of families with 1 or 2 elements in DMA from the north, against 59% from
the centre-south. Concerning to economic and individuals’ mobility, 42% of the workers living in DMA from
the north are employed in the tertiary sector and only 7% of residents have a post-secondary course or a
university degree, against 81% of the workers and 16% of graduates in DMA from the centre-south. These
higher percentage of workers employed in the tertiary sector and the graduates may lead to less
conservation attitudes towards the efficient use of water and a higher consumption in the summer mainly
due to increase of outdoor uses (Loh and Coghlan, 2003; Beal and Stewart, 2011). The outdoor uses are also
correlated to the climate, mainly with temperature and precipitation. The north region is characterized by
lower average annual temperature and higher average annual precipitation than the centre-south region.
The temperature and precipitation data were collected from the site www.wunderground.com, which
provides the average daily temperature and precipitation measured at different weather stations (Table 26).
Figure 27 – General overview of socio-demographic variables (adapted from Mamade et al. (2013))
Table 26 – General overview of climate variables
Temperature [C] Precipitation [mm]

Region District Year Weather station
High Average Low High Average Low
Braga 2011 30 15 2 220 128 22 Braga observatory
North
Oporto 2012 29 14 4 249 150 26 Oporto airport
Centre- Lisbon 2011 29 18 6 106 59 3 Lisbon airport

south Setúbal 2011 32 19 8 102 57 4 Várzea
67
5.3. Scenario and domestic consumption characterization
The application of proposed methodology for the construction of scenarios based on the Scenario Planning
Approach aims to develop water demand scenarios considering consumption historical data from 21 DMA.
The current work intends to project water demand in terms of the demand variables and daily demand
patterns. The demand scenarios will be developed in the short-term (1 year) and long-term (20 years) at the
DMA level.
The explanatory variables used to characterize the domestic consumption and to construct the demand
scenarios belong to the following categories: Climate, Socio-demographic, Billing and Infrastructure, as
highlight in Table 27. In the short-term demand scenario the most important explanatory variable is
temperature belonging to Climate category, whereas, in the long-term the socio-demographic variables
have the most relevant ones, according to the classification presented in Table 14.
Table 27 – Explanatory variables used in construction of demand scenario (adapted from Mamade (2013))
Category Index Unit Temporal scale

Climate
Temperature Average daily summer temperature [C] Short-term
Families with adolescents

Family Small families (1 or 2 elements)
Socio-demographic
Medium families (3 or 4 elements)

Population above age 65 years (elderly)
[%] Long-term
Inactive workers
Individual University graduates
Economic mobility
Population with 12 years of education
Average domestic consumption per client [l/(cl.day)]
Domestic Domestic consumption
st th
Billing
Domestic consumption within 1 - 4 level

-
Commerce and industry billed consumption [%]
Non-domestic Collective billed consumption
Public billed consumption
Average diameter (weighted by the pipes’ length) [mm]
Pipe
diameter Pipes with diameters within ]0,110], ]110,310]
and +330,∞+
Infrastructure
Pipe Stainless steel pipes rate

[%]
Pipe Grey iron pipes rate Medium-term
material Asbestos cement pipes rate
Unknown material pipes rate
Service
Service connection density [number of sc/km]
connection
68
5.4. Data processing
5.4.1. Descriptive analysis and data normalization
In the descriptive analysis, the original flow time series of each DMA were characterized by the following
parameters: initial and final time of historical data, number of days, number of time-steps of available data
and the data availability (Table 28). As defined in Chapter 4, data availability represents the ratio between
the number of time-steps of available data and the total number of records that are expect with a fixed
time-step for the period of analysis; in this work, each time-step corresponds to 15 minutes. Data availability
in most DMA is higher than 80%, indicating a reduced number of periods without records from the
consumption data collected. The VEN_Set DMA presents the lower data availability, with less than 60%.
Table 28 – Original flow series parameters
DMA No. of No. of time-steps of Data availability

DMA Initial time Final time
No. days available data ratio
1 ADE_Bra 01/01/2011 00:30 30/12/2011 00:00 364 31183 89.2%
2 FRA_Bra 01/01/2010 00:30 31/12/2010 23:45 365 27068 77.2%
3 GAM_Bra 01/01/2010 00:30 31/12/2010 23:45 365 27540 78.6%
4 SAR_Bra 01/01/2010 00:30 31/12/2010 23:45 365 26917 76.8%
5 MFR_Bra 01/01/2011 00:30 29/12/2011 23:45 363 28546 81.9%
6 VIL_Bra 01/01/2011 00:15 30/12/2011 00:00 364 31079 88.9%
7 GAL_Bra 01/01/2012 00:15 13/11/2012 00:00 317 27064 88.9%
8 R04_Por 01/01/2012 00:15 30/12/2012 23:45 364 28396 81.3%
9 R06_Por 01/01/2012 00:15 30/12/2012 20:45 364 29146 83.4%
10 R07_Por 01/01/2012 00:15 30/12/2012 11:30 364 31644 90.6%
11 R08_Por 01/01/2012 00:15 30/12/2012 16:15 364 32152 89.2%
12 R12_Por 01/01/2012 00:15 30/12/2012 23:15 364 32098 91.9%
13 CMA_Lis 01/01/2011 00:15 31/12/2011 23:45 365 34683 99.0%
14 DEL_Lis 01/01/2011 00:15 31/12/2011 23:45 365 34768 99.2%
15 FAB_Lis 01/01/2011 00:15 31/12/2011 23:45 365 34542 98.6%
16 MFZ_Lis 14/06/2011 08:00 31/12/2011 23:45 201 18281 94.7%
17 QJP_Lis 01/07/2011 00:30 31/12/2011 23:45 184 17537 99.3%
18 TFM_Lis 01/05/2011 00:15 31/12/2011 23:45 245 23386 99.4%
19 BSS_Set 01/01/2011 00:15 30/12/2011 23:45 364 28400 81.3%
20 SDM_Set 01/01/2011 00:15 31/12/2011 13:45 365 33138 94.6%
21 VEN_Set 01/01/2011 00:15 31/12/2011 00:00 365 20275 57.9%
The flow variables analysed from original series were the average and median flows, as depicted in Figure
3
28. The average flow varies from 3.65 to 75.56 m /h, very similar to the median flow ranging between 3.60
3
and 80.4 m /h, corresponding to the R12_Por and DEL_Lis DMA, respectively. Data normalization allows
69
obtaining the flow series normalized with a step time of 15 minutes. These flow series were used in the next
stages of the analysis.
120 5000
Number of domestic clients

4500
100 4000
80 3500
3000
Flow [m3/h]
60 2500
2000
40 1500
20 1000
500
0 0
MFR_Bra
R04_Por
R06_Por
R07_Por
R08_Por
R12_Por
BSS_Set
ADE_Bra
CMA_Lis
TFM_Lis
SDM_Set
FAB_Lis
FRA_Bra
SAR_Bra
DEL_Lis
MFZ_Lis
QJP_Lis
GAM_Bra
VIL_Bra
GAL_Bra
VEN_Set
DMA
Average flow Median flow Number of domestic clients
Figure 28 – Flow values and total of domestic clients for each DMA
5.4.2. Outlier detection and cleaning
Outliers were detected and removed from the original flow series. Figure 29 shows the detection of the
three types of outliers defined by Loureiro (2010) in the CMA_Lis DMA. Effects of outlier removal in the
maximum and minimum flow comparing the original and cleaned series are presented in Figure 30. The
SDM_Set DMA presents the largest variation on maximum flow in original and cleaned flow series,
3
decreasing from 534.17 to 132.23 m /h, respectively. In what concerns to the minimum flow, the BSS_Set
3
DMA presents the highest variation range from 0.04 to 13.03 m /h, respectively, in original and cleaned flow
series.
45
40
35
Flow [m3/h]
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
26/08/2011 26/08/2011 27/08/2011 27/08/2011 28/08/2011 28/08/2011 29/08/2011
Time
Normalized Median Outliers Type I Outliers Type II Outliers Type III
Figure 29 – Outlier detection Type I, Type II and Type III from CMA_Lis DMA
70
600 18
16
Minimum flow [m3/h]

500
Maximum flow [m3/h]
14
400 12
10
300
8
200 6
4
100
2
0 0
MFR_Bra
ADE_Bra
R06_Por
R08_Por
CMA_Lis
BSS_Set
FAB_Lis
QJP_Lis
GAM_Bra
GAL_Bra
VEN_Set
MFR_Bra
R06_Por
CMA_Lis
ADE_Bra
R08_Por
BSS_Set
GAM_Bra
FAB_Lis
QJP_Lis
VEN_Set
GAL_Bra
DMA DMA
Original series Cleaned series Original series Cleaned series
(a) (b)
Figure 30 – Effects of outlier removal in basic flow statistics: a) maximum, and b) minimum
5.4.3. Combining data
Combining data process includes the removal of large consumers, the achievement of representative data
and the removal of the minimum consumption. Due to the irregular behaviour of large consumers, their
removal was carried out before the outlier detection and removing. The number of days of cleaned series
varies between 181 and 359, corresponding to VEN_Set and DEL_Lis DMA, respectively (Figure 31), whereas
the days removed with less than 75% of daily data range from 2 and 82, corresponding to QJP_Lis and
BSS_Set DMA, respectively.
400 90 Number of days with lees than 75% of daily

Number of days of cleanead series
350 80
300 70
60
250
50
200
data
40
150
30
100
20
50 10
0 0
MFR_Bra
CMA_Lis
TFM_Lis
SDM_Set
ADE_Bra
R04_Por
R06_Por
R07_Por
R08_Por
R12_Por
BSS_Set
DEL_Lis
QJP_Lis
GAM_Bra
FAB_Lis
FRA_Bra
SAR_Bra
VIL_Bra
GAL_Bra
MFZ_Lis
VEN_Set
FAR_Set
DMA
Days of cleaned series Days with less than 75% of daily data
Figure 31 – Number of days of cleaned series and of days with less than 75% of daily data for each DMA
71
5.5. Consumption analysis
Consumption variables and daily patterns were studied in the consumption analysis. Different consumption
variables were defined and calculated for each DMA. The daily consumption patterns were defined through
cluster analysis, resulting different types of daily consumption patterns according to the behaviour of
consumers.
5.5.1. Consumption variables
The following consumption variables were calculated for the available flow series (Table 29): peaking factors
(instantaneous, daily and monthly), average and median consumption (per client and per inhabitant),
minimum night consumption (per client and per service connection) and night consumption (per inhabitant
and per service connection).
Table 29 – Consumption variables calculated from cleaned flow series
Consumption variables Interval Average value Median value
Instantaneous peaking factor [-] 2.22 – 6.13 3.62 3.09

Daily peaking factor [-] 1.14 – 2.76 1.68 1.62
Monthly peaking factor [-] 1.07 – 1.85 1.26 1.22
Average consumption per client [l/(cl.day)] 163.57 – 582.49 320.20 319.73
Average consumption per inhabitant [l/(inh.day)] 34.74 – 290.12 126.03 99.84
Median consumption per client [l/(cl.day)] 143.73 – 570.43 327.35 310
Median consumption per inhabitant [l/(inh.day)] 30.53 – 305.29 126.20 98.71
Minimum night consumption per client [l/(cl.day)] 37.84 – 357.17 140.03 99.09
Minimum night consumption per service connection
22.15 – 2136.37 344.40 130.98
[l/(sc.day)]
Night consumption per inhabitant [l/(inh.h)] 0.45 – 8.46 2.92 1.93
Night consumption per service connection [l/(sc.h)] 1.56 – 65.48 15.67 5.66
As highlight in Figure 32, the instantaneous peaking factor presents the largest variability, mainly in the flow
series belonging to the north of the country, varying from 2.22 to 6.13, corresponding to DEL_Lis and
FRA_Bra DMA, respectively. The CMA_Lis and FRA_Bra DMA represent the flow series with the lowest and
highest daily peaking factor of 1.14 and 2.76, respectively. The monthly peaking factor can reflect the effect
of seasonality, ranging from 1.07 to 1.85, corresponding to CMA_Lis and FRA_Bra DMA, respectively.
Results show a low variability between the values of average and median consumption, varying from 163.57
to 582.49 l/cl.day and 143.73 to 570.43 l/cl.day, respectively. The SDM_Set DMA presents the highest
average and median consumption, while R07_Por DMA shows the lowest average and median consumption.
72
The reference value for daily consumption per capita established by the Portuguese Regulator of Water
Services and Wastes (ERSAR) of 145 l/(inh.day) was used to compared the DMA studied. This values was
multiple by the ratio between the average number of inhabitants and the average number of domestic
clients (i.e., 3), resulting the reference daily consumption per client equal to 435 l/(cl.day). Very few DMA
show higher consumption than the reference value (see Figure 33). Values of the minimum night
consumption and the night consumption for each DMA are presented in Figure 34. The minimum night
consumption is defined in this work as the minimum consumption from [01:00 to 06:00[ and the night
consumption as the average flow from [03:00 to 05:00[, referring to the period of minimum night
consumption (Loureiro, 2010). As expected, the values of night consumption are higher than the values of
minimum night consumption in all DMA. The minimum night consumption and night consumption vary from
37.84 to 357.17 l/(cl.day) and 51.08 to 385.52 l/(cl.day), respectively. The SDM_Set DMA presents the
largest minimum night and night consumption values.
7
6
Peaking factors [-]
5
4
3
2
1
0
MFR_Bra
R04_Por
R06_Por
R07_Por
R08_Por
R12_Por
BSS_Set
CMA_Lis
TFM_Lis
SDM_Set
ADE_Bra
DEL_Lis
QJP_Lis
FRA_Bra
GAM_Bra
SAR_Bra
FAB_Lis
MFZ_Lis
VIL_Bra
GAL_Bra
VEN_Set
DMA
Instantaneous peaking factor Daily peaking factor Monthly peaking factor
Figure 32 – Instantaneous, daily and monthly peaking factors for each DMA
Average and median consumption
700
600
500
[l/(cl.day)]
400
300
200
100
0
MFR_Bra
BSS_Set
CMA_Lis
TFM_Lis
SDM_Set
ADE_Bra
R04_Por
R06_Por
R07_Por
R08_Por
R12_Por
DEL_Lis
QJP_Lis
FRA_Bra
GAM_Bra
SAR_Bra
FAB_Lis
MFZ_Lis
VIL_Bra
GAL_Bra
VEN_Set
DMA
Average consumption Median consumption ERSAR 2011
Figure 33 – Average and median consumptionper client of each DMA
73
400
Minimum night and night

consumption [l/(cl.day)]
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
MFR_Bra
SDM_Set
ADE_Bra
R04_Por
R06_Por
R07_Por
R08_Por
R12_Por
CMA_Lis
TFM_Lis
BSS_Set
SAR_Bra
DEL_Lis
FAB_Lis
QJP_Lis
FRA_Bra
GAM_Bra
VIL_Bra
GAL_Bra
MFZ_Lis
VEN_Set
DMA
Minimum night consumption Nigh consumption
Figure 34 – Minimum night and night consumption per client for each DMA
5.5.2. Demand classification model
A consumption pattern allow the evaluation of the consumption throughout the day. Cluster Analysis (CA)
was used to categorize the common daily behaviours between the different DMA. Winter and summer
periods considered in each DMA are presented in Figure 35 and it was obtained by previous work of
Mamade (2013). This analysis considered only the winter period, due to the more homogeneous
consumption in this period of year. Besides, CA also considered only the working days, due to the difference
of consumption behaviour between working days and weekends (see Figure 12). The hourly variation of
consumption was divided by the respectively average daily consumption. This step is important for the
analysis of the different DMA, as it removes the scale effect of each DMA. In the CA, the hourly consumption
th th
of each DMA was characterized by the median dimensionless consumption, and the 10 and the 90
percentiles, which are more robust statistical measures than the usually used average consumption and
standard deviation.
Figure 35 – Winter (blue) and summer (red) period for each analysed DMA
74
A total of 18 DMA, from the initial 21 DMA, were used for the cluster analysis through the STATISTICA®
software. Three DMA were not considered in the cluster analysis because they do not present winter period.
The dendrogram resulting from the CA is presented in Figure 36 and the four types of consumption patterns
defined are presented in Figure 37 and Figure 38.
Figure 36 – Dendrogram resulting from the cluster analysis for the DMA
2.4 2.4 CMA_Lis DEL_Lis

VEN_Set QJP_Lis
Consumption/average daily consumption
FAB_Lis BSS_Set
2 2 SDM_Set
1.6 1.6
1.2 1.2
0.8 0.8
0.4 0.4
0 0
00:15
01:30
02:45
04:00
05:15
06:30
07:45
09:00
10:15
11:30
12:45
14:00
15:15
16:30
17:45
19:00
20:15
21:30
22:45
00:00
00:15
01:30
02:45
04:00
05:15
06:30
07:45
09:00
10:15
11:30
12:45
14:00
15:15
16:30
17:45
19:00
20:15
21:30
22:45
00:00
Hour Hour
(a) (b)
Figure 37 – Daily variation of hourly consumption: a) Type 1, and b) Type 2
75
2.4 R12_Por VIL_Bra 2.4 R04_Por R06_Por R08_Por


FRA_Bra ADE_Bra GAM_Bra
2 2 GAL_Bra SAR_Bra MFR_Bra
1.6 1.6
1.2 1.2
0.8 0.8
0.4 0.4
0 0
12:45
00:15
01:30
02:45
04:00
05:15
06:30
07:45
09:00
10:15
11:30
14:00
15:15
16:30
17:45
19:00
20:15
21:30
22:45
00:00
00:15
01:30
02:45
04:00
05:15
06:30
07:45
09:00
10:15
11:30
12:45
14:00
15:15
16:30
17:45
19:00
20:15
21:30
22:45
00:00
Hour Hour
(a) (b)
Figure 38 – Daily variation of hourly consumption: a) Type 3, and b) Type 4
In the daily behaviour groups obtained the consumption was characterized at different periods of the day:
transition period from night period (from 06h00 to 07h00 and from 22h00 to 01:00), night period (from
01h00 to 06h00), morning period (from 07h00 to 10h00), lunch period (from 10h00 to 15h00), afternoon
period (from 15h00 to 19h00) and dinner period (from 19h00 to 22h00). The types of patterns obtained
have the following characteristics:
 Type 1: maximum value of the consumption factor in morning period (ca. 2.2), lower consumption
factors in lunch and afternoon period (being the latter lower than 1.0) and a significant consumption
factor in the dinner period (ca. 1.5), but lower than the one in the morning period;
 Type 2: the largest consumption during the day (i.e., in the morning, lunch, afternoon and dinner
period the consumption factor is usually higher than 1.0) and identical maximum values of
consumption factors in the morning and dinner (ca. 1.5);
 Type 3: consumption pattern similar to weekends days, with identical and higher consumption in the
morning and lunch period (1.5-1.7) and lower consumption in the dinner period (ca. 1.4);
 Type 4: the largest and identical consumption factor in the lunch and dinner period (ca. 1.6) and a
significant consumption during the morning period (ca. 1.4).
The consumption patterns of Types 1 and 2 correspond to the DMA from the centre-south of the country
(Lisbon and Setúbal districts), wherein the economic and individuals’ mobility is higher and the individuals
spend most of the time outside home (e.g., at work or school outside their municipalities). This fact allows
obtaining consumption patterns with maximum values in the morning and dinner period, while during the
76
day the consumption factor is lower, mainly in Type 1. Besides, maximum values are the largest, since the
workers in the tertiary sector are usually associated to high incomes allowing to have a higher consumption
and, often, with less conservation attitudes towards the efficient use of water (Loh and Coghlan, 2003; Beal
and Stewart, 2011). Notwithstanding, Types 3 and 4 correspond to the DMA from north region (Oporto and
Braga districts), wherein the consumption factors are higher throughout the day (morning, lunch, afternoon
and dinner period), more similar to consumption patterns in the weekends. These DMA present a lower
percentage of active population of 47% (against 68% from the centre-south), allowing consumption
throughout the day.
The result of decision tree used to classify the daily demand pattern on working days is presented in Figure
39. For the decision tree, two consumption patterns of Type 1, five of Type 2, two of Type 3 and nine of Type
4 were used. The decision tree was constructed using only two variables to classify the consumption
patterns: public billed consumption and individuals’ mobility. Public consumption is the most important
variable and classified the daily demand pattern according to the rule of “public billed
consumption ≥ 0.14”. “Public billed consumption ≥ 0.14” was obtained for the consumption patterns of
Type 1 and 2 (younger consumption patterns), corresponding to centre-south DMA (Lisbon and Setúbal).
“Public billed consumption < 0.14”, the consumption patterns obtained are of Type 3 and 4 (elderly
consumption patterns), associated to north DMA (Oporto and Braga).
The second variable to be used was the individuals’ mobility. “Individuals’ mobility ≥ -0.42” corresponds
only to consumption patterns of Type 1 (Figure 37). Thus, high values of public consumption (≥ 0.14) and
high values of individuals’ mobility (≥ -0.42) characterized consumption pattern of Type 1. This result
indicates that DMA with high public billed consumption and with larger number of graduated individuals are
associated to consumption patterns of Type 1. This pattern presents a maximum consumption in the early
morning and a lower consumption during the day. On the other hand, “individuals’ mobility  -0.42”
corresponds only to Type 2 consumption patterns (Figure 37). DMA with consumption pattern of Type 2
present larger consumption during the day and the maximum consumption in the morning and at dinner.
“Public billed consumption  0.14” and “individuals’ mobility  -0.74” correspond only to consumption
pattern of Type 3. DMA with high public billed consumption and lower number of graduated individuals are
associated to an elderly consumption pattern, very similar to weekend consumption patterns (Figure 38).
“Individuals’ mobility ≥ -0.74” corresponds only to consumption pattern of Type 4. DMA with consumption
pattern of Type 4 present larger and identical consumption in the lunch and dinner period and significant
consumption during the morning period (Figure 38).
77
Figure 39 – Decision tree to classify the daily demand pattern for working days
5.6. Water demand prediction
Results from Principal Component Analysis (PCA) resulting from the previous work of Mamade (2013) were
used and incorporated the variable temperature. PCA aims to identify the most relevant predictor variables
from a set of variables. Since significant regional differences were identified, PCA was separately carried out
for the north and for the centre-south region in a total of 86 DMA (Mamade, 2013). Predictor variables are
composed of five Principal Components (PC) and five variables. The five PCs are: elderly families and
individuals’ mobility from Socio-demographic category, pipe material and pipe size from Infrastructure
category and domestic consumption from Billing category. The five variables are: commercial and industry
billed consumption, public billed consumption, collective billed consumption, average daily summer
temperature and region. Predictor variables for the centre-south region are summarized in Table 30.
Table 30 – Summary of predictor variables for the centre-south region (adapted from Mamade (2013))
Category Predictor variable Symbology Original factors (scores)
Climate Temperature Average daily summer temperature [C]
Inactive workers (0.56); Elderly (0.78); Families with 1-2

PC1: Elderly families elements (0.94); Families with adolescents (-0.91); Families
Socio- with 3-4 elements (-0.92)
demographic
PC2: Individuals’ Economic mobility (0.46); University graduates (0.78);
mobility People with 12 years of education (-0.92)
Domestic consumption per inhabitant (-0.61); Domestic
PC1: Domestic st nd
consumption 1 level (0.78); Domestic consumption 2 level
consumption th
(0.93); Domestic consumption 4 level (-0.91)
Commercial and
industry billed Commercial and industrial billed consumption (%)
Billing consumption
Public billed
Public billed consumption category (%)
consumption
Collective billed
Collective billed consumption category (%)
consumption
Plastic pipes (-0.82); AC pipes (0.83); Service connection
PC1: Pipe material
density (0.71)
Infrastructure
PC2: Pipe size % Diameter 110-310 (0.77); % Diameter ≤110 (-0.78)
78
The explained variance and the KMO coefficient for the north region were the 76.6% and 0.71 for Socio-
demographic category, 73.1% and 0.61 for Billing category and 67.8% and 0.51 for Infrastructure category,
respectively. In the centre-south region, the explained variance and the KMO coefficient were the 88.9% and
0.59 for Socio-demographic category, 67.0% and 0.59 for Billing category and 87.1% and 0.52 for
Infrastructure category (Mamade, 2013). The explained variances should be preferably higher than 75% in
accordance with Loureiro (2010) and KMO coefficients should be higher than 0.60.
The Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) analysis aims to improve the Mamade (2013)’s demand prediction
models by the incorporation of the temperature variable. Initially, it is necessary to verify the correlation
between the independent and dependent variables. This step was carried out for the centre-south region (9
DMA) and then, for the two regions, north and centre-south (21 DMA). Coefficients of the correlation vary
between -1 to +1 and, if values are close to these limits, high correlations between the variables are
observed, influencing negatively or positively, depending on the value being negative or positive,
respectively.
Table 31 represents the correlation matrix for the consumption variables. The symbol represents large
correlation (above 0.5) between a particular consumption variable and the independent variable. Whenever
the independent variables are positively correlated with the consumption variables a + is placed below the
symbol and when the correlation is negative, a - is placed. Results show that the temperature presents a
large positive correlation with the most consumption variables, meaning that an increase of temperature
will cause an increase in consumption. These results are consistent with the conclusions of the previous
chapter.
For example, peaking factors (daily and monthly) are linearly correlated to elderly families, domestic
consumption, public billed consumption, pipe material and average daily summer temperature. The negative
signal associated to elderly families and domestic consumption mean that peaking factors increase with large
families with adolescents and with consumption in the higher tariffs. The peaking factors are positively
correlated to pipe material, mainly with AC pipes and average daily summer temperature. In what concerns
to the average and median consumption per client, the consumption variables are positively correlated to
public billed consumption, pipe material and average daily summer temperature and negatively correlated to
domestic consumption and pipe size. The public consumption is associated to irrigation of public spaces and
municipal pools fillings. The negative correlation with pipe size indicates that these consumption variables
increase with a higher percentage of small pipes (diameter ≤ 110 mm). The same logic can be applied to
other consumption variables to understand the correlation matrix.
In addition, a correlation matrix between the different predictor variables was computed in order to confirm
the low correlation between them and their actual independency in the regression model. If the correlation
coefficient is high, the variables are not independent and one of them should be discarded. This analysis
79
showed high correlation between two predictor variables - domestic consumption and average daily summer
temperature - with a correlation coefficient of -0.78 and, in some regressions, the Variation Inflator Factor
(VIF) was close to 10. Thus, these two predictor variables have large multicollinearity and should not be
considered simultaneously as independent variables.
The importance of incorporation the temperature variable was assessed through the comparison of results
obtained by two demand prediction models. The first was developed by Mamade (2013) which had good
results without adding the temperature. The new demand prediction model developed in this work
introduced the temperature variable, but has discarded the predictor variable of domestic consumption due
to large multicollinearity between it and temperature.
Since different behaviours for the north and the centre-south region were observed. Initially MLR analysis
was carried out separately for centre-south region and, then, for the both regions, introducing a new
predictor variable (the region). Results are better when considering only the centre-south region instead of
the two regions, since in the centre-south region the temperature has a higher influence on the
consumption, due to higher average temperatures and the higher economic and individuals’ mobility.
Moreover another temperature variable was studied, the ratio between the average daily summer
temperature by the average annual temperature. Results with this temperature variable were not as
satisfactory as the previous ones, showing a Cook’s distance much higher than 1, indicating the presence of
outliers.
Results of multiple linear regression models are presented in Table 32, showing a significant improvement of
the water demand prediction model with the variable temperature in terms of adjusted r-squared and
significance of the model (p-value). Average daily summer temperature is a predictor variable more
explanatory of domestic water demand than the predictor variable of domestic consumption. Results of the
new demand prediction model in the centre-south region show a good adjustment with a ̅̅̅ = 0.89 and low
values of p-value, increasing the significance of the model. Consumption values increase with the
temperature: this is proven by the regression coefficients of the explaining component of temperature
always positive and high (for example, ̂ =56.191 for the average consumption per inhabitant and
̂ =76.341 for the minimum night consumption per client). On the other hand, the 0 for all the
consumption variables study is negative; this regression coefficient represents the value of dependent
variable when all the independent variables assume a null value. This result has no practical significance,
since the values used to regression analysis of each independent variable do not incorporate the value zero.
Besides, in some independent variables, the value zero cannot be introduced, such as average daily summer
temperature. Thus, there is no possibility of the value of consumption variable to be equal to 0.
80
Table 31 – Representation of correlation matrix for the centre-south region.

Predictor variable Commerce and Average daily
Elderly Individuals’ Domestic Public billed Collective billed Pipe Pipe
industry billed summer
Consumption variable families mobility consumption consumption consumption material size
consumption temperature
Daily peaking factor
[-]
Monthly peaking factor
[-]
Average consumption per client
[l/(cl.day)]
Average consumption per
inhabitant [l/(inh.day)]
Median consumption per client
[l/(cl.day)]
Median consumption per
Minimum night consumption per
client [l/(cl.day)]
service connection [l/(sc.day)]
Night consumption per inhabitant
[l/(inh.h)]
Night consumption per service
connection [l/(sc.h)]
81
New demand prediction model Old demand prediction model
Dependent Confidence interval
Region Regression Standard
variable Explaining component VIF p-value Explaining component p-value
coefficients deviation Lower Upper
bound bound
Constant ( ̂ ) -0.474 1.187 - - - Constant ( ̂ )
Elderly families ( ̂ ) -0.048 0.036 -0.147 0.051 2.604 Elderly families ( ̂ )

Monthly Public billed
peaking -0.001 0.007 -0.020 0.018 1.822 0.070 0.68 Pipe material ( ̂ ) 0.116 0.58
consumption ( ̂ )
factor [-]
Public billed consumption
Pipe material ( ̂ ) 0.061 0.049 -0.075 0.197 3.096
(̂ )
Average daily summer Domestic consumption
0.071 0.053 -0.076 0.219 3.021
temperature (̂ ) (̂ )
Individuals’ mobility ( ̂ ) 67.876 11.843 34.994 100.758 2.050 Individuals’ mobility ( ̂ )

Average
consumption Commerce and industry
Centre- 5.787 1.302 2.172 9.401 1.740 Pipe material ( ̂ )
per billed consumption ( ̂ ) 0.004 0.93 0.027 0.81
south inhabitant Commerce and industrial
[l/(inh.day)] Pipe material ( ̂ ) 20.557 8.595 -3.306 44.421 2.542
billed consumption ( ̂ )
56.191 8.334 33.052 79.329 1.993
Individuals’ mobility ( ̂ ) 66.705 11.671 34.300 99.110 2.050 Individuals’ mobility ( ̂ )

Median
consumption Commerce and industry
7.002 1.283 3.440 10.564 1.740 Pipe material ( ̂ )
per billed consumption ( ̂ ) 0.003 0.94 0.014 0.86
inhabitant Commerce and industrial
[l/(inh.day)] Pipe material ( ̂ ) 24.947 8.470 1.430 48.463 2.542
49.393 8.213 26.590 72.195 1.993
82
New demand prediction model Old demand prediction model
Dependent Confidence interval
Region Regression Standard
variable Explaining component VIF p-value Explaining component p-value
coefficients deviation Lower Upper
bound bound
Elderly families ( ̂ ) -36.161 10.734 -70.321 -2.002 3.296 Elderly families ( ̂ )
Commerce and industry
Minimum 0.823 2.723 -7.843 9.488 4.006 Pipe size ( ̂ )
night
consumption Public billed 0.005 0.97 Commerce and industrial 0.038 0.86
5.982 2.442 -1.788 13.752 3.378
per client consumption ( ̂ ) billed consumption ( ̂ )
[l/(cl.day)] Public billed consumption
Pipe size ( ̂ ) 7.427 17.445 -48.091 62.946 2.222
(̂ )
76.341 14.668 29.660 123.022 3.249
Elderly families ( ̂ ) 10.564 2.498 2.612 18.515 4.351 Elderly families ( ̂ )
Commerce and industry
Night 1.257 0.539 -0.458 2.972 3.822 Pipe size ( ̂ )
consumption
per service Public billed 0.017 0.92 Commerce and industrial 0.036 0.87
0.846 0.443 -0.562 2.255 2.705
connection consumption ( ̂ ) billed consumption ( ̂ )
[l/(sc.h)] Public billed consumption
Pipe size ( ̂ ) -12.376 2.662 -20.847 -3.905 3.125
(̂ )
4.096 2.885 -5.085 13.277 3.062
North Individuals’ mobility ( ̂ ) -0.060 0.051 -0.167 0.048 1.008 Individuals’ mobility ( ̂ )
Monthly
and
peaking Region ( ̂ ) -0.133 0.058 -0.256 -0.010 1.076 0.002 0.51 Region ( ̂ ) 0.098 0.18
centre-
factor [-]
south Average daily summer Domestic consumption
0.059 0.013 0.031 0.086 1.080
83
The interval (minimum and maximum values) of predictive values and Cook’s distance are presented in Table
33. The predictive values are calculated to guarantee that the projected values are reliable. However, the
prediction interval obtained for consumption variables is too large to be considered, except for the monthly
peaking factors. The majority of the consumption variables have a Cook’s distance lower or very close to the
value 1, meaning that there are no outliers to influence the regression model. The minimum night consumption
per client and the night consumption per service connection present Cook’s distance higher than 3, meaning
that some independent variables used in this multiple linear regression can contribute to the presence of
outliers.
Table 33 – Predictive value and Cook’s distance (minimum and maximum value) for each Multiple Linear Regression
Predicted value Cook’s distance

Region Dependent variable
Minimum Maximum Minimum Maximum
Monthly peaking factor [-] 1.066 1.434 0.001 1.172
Average consumption per
112.939 285.082 0.005 0.332
Median consumption per inhabitant
107.373 299.801 0.025 0.407
Centre-south [l/(inh.day)]
47.923 373.904 0.018 4.242
client [l/(cl.day)]
Night consumption per service
15.668 63.501 0.032 3.001
connection [l/(sc.h)]
North and
Monthly peaking factor [-] 1.108 1.559 0.000 0.778
centre-south
5.7. Trends characterization
Trends were collect and characterized to be incorporated in the multiple linear regression models and in the
decision tree to project the demand variables and the daily demand patterns, respectively. This process was
only carried out for the centre-south region (Lisbon district), except the trend resulting from the projection of
elderly. Since this chapter aims to construct demand scenarios for short and long-term, only the trends for the
variables with more influence on the consumption in long-term were collected (as shown Table 14).
Trends can result from projections or predictions (Table 34). Projections come from scenario studies, such as
the National Statistics Institute of Portugal (INE). Predictions were estimated by the analysis of historical data
from the explanatory variables. In this work, most of the trends were obtained by prediction due to the lack of
scenario studies available for the centre-south of Portugal.
84
Table 34 – Method (projection or prediction) adopted to estimate the trends from different key-variables
Category Key-variable Projection Prediction
Families
Small families (1 or 2 elements)
Medium families (3 or 4 elements)
Elderly
Socio-demographic
Inactive workers
Individuals
Economic mobility
University graduates
People with 12 years of education
The socio-demographic variables have more influence on the consumption in the long-term than in the short-
term. According to Alegre et al. (1992), these variables have more influence in the behaviour throughout the
day and between the days of the week, than in the average consumption. From the socio-demographic
variables considered, only the elderly trend was obtained by projection through a scenario studied developed
by Coelho et al. (2008) in the National Statistics Institute of Portugal (INE). The studied projected the population
above 65 years until 2060 for Portugal, taking into account the historical data since 1980 and different
established scenarios: central scenario, high scenario, low scenario and scenario without migration (Figure 40).
The central scenario combines a set of assumptions considered more likely given recent demographic
developments. However, due to the uncertainty associated with the future demographic behaviour two
alternative scenarios were developed: a low scenario and a high scenario. Additionally, it was also established a
scenario without migration where assumptions of evolution for the components of fertility and mortality are
identical with those in the central scenario, but where it is assumed, despite its improbability, the non-
occurrence of external migration flows, allowing analysis of its demographic impact (Coelho et al., 2008).
Figure 40 – Population above 65 years from 1980 to 2060 (estimates and projections) (Coelho et al., 2008)
85
The remaining trends of socio-demographic variables were obtained by the predictions of historical data. The
historical data were obtained from the demographic statistics provided by the National Statistics Institute of
Portugal. Depending on the socio-demographic variable, the period of historical data and the number of records
are different. The historical data of explanatory variables are presented in Figure 41.
70
Explanatory variables (%)
60
50
40
30
20
10
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Year
Families with 1 or 2 elements Families with 3 or 4 elements Elderly
Inactive workers Economic mobility
(a)
50 100
People with 12 years of education
University graduates (%)
40 90
30 80
(%)
20 70
10 60
0 50
1960 1981 2001 2011 1981 2001 2011
Year Year
University graduates People with 12 years of education
(b) (c)
Figure 41 – Historical data of socio-demographic explanatory variables: a) from 1999 to 2011, and b) from 1960 to 2011, and
c) from 1981 to 2011
Simple linear regression analysis of each explanatory variable ( = dependent variables) as

function of the projected year ( = independent variables) were carried out using the STATISTICA® software.
Collected historical data allow to predict the explanatory variable for a given year, through the establishment of
simple regressions and, thus, to obtain the trends of each explanatory variable (Table 35). Results show a good
r-square ( > 0.50) and the p-value is approximately null for the most of regressions. The values of trends have
to be incorporated in the multiple linear regression models obtained for each consumption variable. In the case
of predictor variable to be a principal component (e.g., PC1: elderly families), the trends are multiplied by the
86
scores associated to each explanatory variable (Table 30), resulting in a representative value of the principal
component. If the predictor were just a variable, the value of trend was directly incorporated. Since the
multiple linear regression models was obtained considering values of predictor variables from 21 DMA
distributed throughout the country, the trends incorporated in these regressions need to be include in the
interval (minimum and maximum value) of each predictor variable (Table 36). The intervals of each predictor
variable were different for regression of consumption variables of north and centre-south regions or just
centre-south region.
Table 35 – Estimations of parameters of linear regression of each prediction trend
Explanatory No. of Explaining Regression Standard

Period p-value
variables records component coefficients deviation
Families with 1 or 2 Constant ( ̂ ) -13.4933 0.433

1999-2011 13 0.000 0.99
elements Year ( ̂ ) 0.007 0.000
Families with 3 or 4 Constant ( ̂ ) 7.825584 0.659

1999-2011 13 0.000 0.91
elements Year ( ̂ ) -0.003672 0.000
Constant ( ̂ ) -4.13268 0.480
Elderly 1999-2011 13 0.000 0.87
Year ( ̂ ) 0.00215 0.000
Constant ( ̂ ) -4.41973 1.368
Inactive workers 1999-2011 13 0.004 0.50
Year ( ̂ ) 0.00246 0.001
Constant ( ̂ ) -16.3769 0.796
Economic mobility 1999-2011 13 0.000 0.97
Year ( ̂ ) 0.0085 0.000
University Constant ( ̂ ) -7.27145 1.696

1960-2011 4 0.049 0.86
graduates Year ( ̂ ) 0.00371 0.001
People with 12 Constant ( ̂ ) -8.55559 4.062

1981-2011 3 0.152 0.58
years of education Year ( ̂ ) 0.00463 0.002
Table 36 – Interval of predictor variables
Interval
Category Predictor variable North and
Centre-south
centre-south
Climate Average daily summer temperature [19.19, 26.09] [22.43, 24.40]
PC1: Elderly families [-2.218, 1.592] [-2.218, 1.592]
Socio-demographic
PC2: Individuals’ mobility [-2.995, 0.789] [-2.995, 0.789]
PC1: Domestic consumption [-2.142, 2.184] [-2.142, 2.184]
Commerce and industry billed consumption [0, 20.936] [1.444, 20.936]
Billing
Public billed consumption [0, 22.841] [1.844, 22.841]
Collective billed consumption [0, 14.127] [0, 14.127]
PC1: Pipe material [-1.485, 3.791] [-1.485, 2.607]
Infrastructure
PC2: Pipe size [-3.723, 1.277] [-1.323, 1.277]
87
5.8. Water demand projection (Scenario construction)
The construction of demand scenarios consists of incorporating the trends and uncertainties of each
independent variable in the demand prediction models. The aim is to construct two demand scenarios: one
scenario for the short-term (1 year) to verify the influence of seasonality through the temperature and another
scenario for long-term (20 years) to evaluate the influence of socio-demographic variables. Both constructed
scenarios used the demand prediction models for the centre-south region, belonging to the districts of Lisbon
and Setúbal.
In the short-term scenario, the monthly peaking factor was chosen as demand variable for projecting water
demand for the following year, as presented in Table 37. The value of 1.22, corresponding to the current state
(year 2011), was calculated by the average value of monthly peaking factors for the nine DMA in the centre-
south region. The short-term scenarios aim to verify the influence of seasonality on the demand through the
temperature variable, thus, these scenarios do not consider changes in terms of elderly families and pipe
material. Two different scenarios were constructed considering two different situations: i) increase and ii)
decrease in average daily summer temperature corresponding to an increase and decrease of public billed
consumption, respectively. These values of average daily summer temperature considered were 24.4C and
22.43C corresponding to the maximum and minimum value for temperature, respectively (see Table 36).
Results of the two constructed scenarios show a large variability, highlighting that small changes in the average
daily summer temperature can cause significant changes in the demand.
The long-term scenarios allow projecting the minimum night demand per client to the year 2030 (Table 38). The
studied of this demand variable is important for the knowledge of water losses. These scenarios aim to evaluate
the influence of socio-demographic variables on the demand. Thus, no changes in the commercial and industry
billed consumption and pipe size were considered. Three long term scenarios were constructed. First two
scenarios showed the influence of elderly families on the demand, considering no changes in the average daily
summer temperature and in public billed consumption; obtained projections presented lower values of
minimum night demand per client than current situation, due to the increase of elderly people, small families (1
or 2 elements) and inactive workers. In the third scenario, it was also considered the influence of average daily
summer temperature and consequently, of the public billed consumption; the projection value of this scenario
is far superior than the ones of the other two scenarios and of the current state, highlighting again the small
changes on average daily summer temperature can cause major changes in the demand.
The daily demand patterns can also be projected through the construction of different scenarios and the use of
decision tree. Since this analysis only considered the centre-south region, all the daily demand patterns
obtained were from Type 1.
88
Table 37 – Results of scenario construction for short-term for the centre-south region
Temporal Dependent Current state

Projection Scenario
scale variable (2011)
Whereas no changes in elderly families and pipe
material and increase in average daily summer
1.30
Monthly temperature, which consequently causes an increase in
Short-term the public billed consumption.
peaking
scenarios 1.22
factor, Whereas no changes in elderly families and pipe
(2012)
[-] material and decrease in average daily summer
1.17
temperature, which consequently causes a decrease in
the public billed consumption.
Table 38 – Results of scenario construction for long-term for the centre-south region
Temporal Dependent Current state

Projection Scenario
scale variable (2011)
Whereas no changes in commerce and industry billed
consumption, public billed consumption, pipe size and
average daily summer temperature. Considering a large
148.66
aging population and increase of small families and
inactive workers (increase of 10% of the trends present
in sub-section 5.7 for the year 2030).
Minimum
night Whereas no changes in commerce and industry billed
Long-term
demand consumption, public billed consumption, pipe size and
scenarios 175.46 151.71
per client, average daily summer temperature. Considering the
(2030)
socio-demographic trends present in sub-section 5.7.
[l/(cl.day)]
Considering the socio-demographic trends present in
sub-section 5.7 and increase in average daily summer
temperature, which consequently causes an increase in
269.06
the public billed consumption. Whereas no changes in
commerce and industry billed consumption and pipe
size.
5.9. Scenario model implementation
A computation tool has been developed and implemented for the projection of the water demand, in terms of
demand variables and daily demand patterns for any unknown DMA. The tool was implemented using C#, an
object-oriented programming language, developed by Microsoft. Its simplicity and flexibility potentiated the
choice of this programing language for the scenario model development in the short, medium and long-terms at
the DMA level.
This tool allows increasing the knowledge of domestic water demand, quickly and automatically, by the water
utilities for the planning, design and operation of water distribution infrastructures in the future. The lack of
89
tools to project water demand, in terms of demand variables and daily demand patterns, in the short, medium
and long-terms was the main motivation for the development of this computational tool.
The water demand scenario projection computational tool is composed of three main modules: i) Data
validation, ii) Consumption analysis and iii) Results visualization, as depicted in Figure 42.
• General characteristics of unknown DMA

Data • Trends incorporated
validation
• Calculation of consumption variables based on demand prediction model

Consumption • Calculation of daily consumption patterns based on decision tree
analysis
• Demand scenarios for each demand variable

Results • Demand scenarios for each daily demand patterns
visualization
Figure 42 – Modules of the computational tool
This tool was based on the analysed case studies described in the Chapter 5, consisting of 21 DMA distributed
throughout the country. The first module, Data validation, is important to guarantee that the demand scenario
model is adequate to project domestic water demand for the unknown DMA. Input data, such as the number of
clients, number of domestic clients, number of inhabitants, number of service connections and network length,
are validated according to intervals of characteristics of 21 DMA from the north and centre-south and 9 DMA
from the centre-south region (Table 39). Additionally, the user chooses the region of unknown DMA, the
temporal scale (short, medium or long-term) and the demand variable to be projected, as depicted in Figure 43.
Table 39 – Interval of general characteristics for validation step
Interval
Characteristic
North and centre-south Centre-south
Number of clients 441 5185 1006 5185
Number of domestic clients 440 4514 983 4514

Number of inhabitants 1940 15898 2294 9312
Number of service connections 168 5863 168 3541
Network length [km] 6 152 6 105
90
Figure 43 – Interface of computational tool for introduction of initial data by the user
In the second module, Consumption analysis, the demand variable chosen by the user is calculated by using the
multiple linear regression function obtained in 5.6. It is necessary to input as well the data trends to be
incorporated in the regression, as presented in Figure 44. The user may choose to introduce a value or select
the checkbox “Current situation” in the variables with less influence on the consumption for the temporal scale
considered; in latter case, the values of the year 2011 are applied. The trends introduced are also used in the
decision tree to define the type of daily demand pattern. The predictor variables resulting from the input data
trends should be included in the interval presented in Table 36. In the last module, Results visualization, the
projection value for the demand variable selected and the type of the demand pattern are presented. This tool
allows the user to repeat the analysis for different consumption variables and for different trends, and, thus,
evaluating and comparing different demand scenarios constructed.
(a) (b)
Figure 44 – Interface of computational tool: a) for the introduction of trends data by the user, and b) for the visualization of
results
91
The current chapter presented the application of proposed methodology in Chapter 3 to construct demand
scenarios in the short and long-terms to project demand variables and daily demand patterns based on demand
prediction model and decision tree, respectively. Demand scenarios were developed based on 21 DMA located
in different Portuguese water distribution systems distributed throughout the country.
Different consumption variables were calculated. Also the daily consumption patterns were obtained
considering the winter period of each DMA and the working days. Four types of consumption patterns were
obtained through cluster analysis, characterizing the hourly consumption of each DMA by the dimensionless
th th
median consumption, and the 10 and the 90 percentiles. The consumption patterns of Type 1 and 2
correspond to the DMA from the centre-south region representing young patterns, while the Type 3 and 4 are
elderly consumption patterns and correspond to the north region. A decision tree was constructed using R
software and only two variables were used to classify the consumption patterns: public billed consumption and
individual’s mobility.
Results from PCA carried out by Mamade (2013) were used and the analysis was extended to incorporate the
variables temperature (average daily summer temperature) and region. The principal components and the
variables were used in the regression analysis. The multiple linear regression analysis aims to improve the
demand prediction models from previous works through the incorporation of temperature; this step was
carried out for the centre-south region (9 DMA) and then, for the two regions (21 DMA). Results showed a
significant improvement of the water demand prediction models after inclusion of the variable temperature in
terms of adjusted r-squared and significance of the model (p-value). As expected, results are better when
considered only the centre-south region, instead of the two regions, since in the centre-south region the
temperature presents more influence on the consumption, due to higher average temperatures and the largest
economic and individuals’ mobility.
Several trends of socio-demographic variables were collected and analysed to be incorporated in the multiple
linear regression model and decision tree to project domestic water demand. This analysis was only carried out
for the centre-south region, using already developed studies concerning the evolution of the population and
statistical data from National Statistics Institute of Portugal (INE). The demand scenarios were constructing for
short-term (1 year) and for long-term (20 years) to verify the influence of seasonality through the temperature
and the influence of socio-demographic variables, respectively, only in the centre-south region. In the short-
term scenarios, the monthly peaking factor was choose as demand variable for projecting for next year by the
construction of two different scenarios based on different average daily summer temperature and public billed
consumption. Three long-term scenarios were constructed using the minimum night demand per client, which
has allowed to confirm the influence of elderly families and temperature on demand.
92
The development of the computational tool arose from the need of implementing and operationalizing the
proposed methodology described in Chapter 3, making it more user-friendly. This tool allows:
 to project domestic water demand for any unknown DMA, in terms of demand variables and daily
demand patterns, based on scenario planning in short, medium, and long-terms at the DMA level;
 to evaluate and to compare the different scenarios developed for the planning, design and operation
of water distribution infrastructures by the water utilities.
Since the scenario model implementation was based on the case study presented in this chapter, with 21 DMA
distributed throughout the country, the general characteristics of the unknown DMA and the trends of
explanatory variables introduced by the user need to belong to an established interval. This tool allows
increasing the knowledge of domestic water demand for any unknown DMA in Portugal.
93
94
Chapter 6 – Conclusions
6. CONCLUSIONS
6.1. General considerations
The main objective of this work was to develop and test a comprehensive methodology to project water
demand in water distribution systems in the short, medium and long-terms, taking into account uncertain
factors, such as socio-demography, climate and infrastructure. This methodology was applied to real life
network sectors from existing water distribution system, 21 District Meter Areas (DMA).
An extensive state-of-the-art review was carried out in terms of factors (key-variables) that influence domestic
water consumption. The main key-variables used in many studies of domestic water consumption were
analysed from 40 research works. The deeper knowledge of key-factors that influence domestic consumption is
of the utmost importance for the adequate management of existing water distribution systems. Also a review of
the trends for the centre-south region of Portugal for long-term (2030) was carried out. The trends were
obtained through projections or predictions of different key-variables, being the projection of trends the best
method found, as it allows to introduce uncertainty in the key-variable associated. The prediction is based on
the regression analysis of historical data.
The methodology developed by Loureiro (2010) for the characterization of water consumption, including the
processing and analysis of consumption data was adapted to verify the importance of temperature on the water
consumption (Chapter 4).
6.2. Novel contributions
The objective of this work was successfully achieved and the main novel contributions of this work were the
following:
 The use of more robust measures, such as the dimensionless median consumption, 10
th
and 90
th
percentiles, to describe the hourly consumption in DMA than the usual dimensionless average
consumption and the standard deviation. The hourly consumption was calculated to obtain the daily
consumption patterns and the last was incorporated in the decision tree to typify the daily
consumption patterns and to classify in function of public billed consumption and individuals’ mobility.
 Analyses of influence of variable temperature on the domestic water consumption. Results have shown
that the influence of temperature on the consumption is larger in DMA with high public billed
rd th
consumption and high domestic consumption in the 3 and 4 billing class. Another important variable
that reflect the influence of temperature on the consumption is the economic mobility, since the
95
Chapter 6 – Conclusions
individuals who work in the tertiary sector are associated to have higher incomes, allowing higher
consumption mainly in outdoor uses.
 Improvement of prediction demand models developed by Loureiro (2010) and, later, by Mamade
(2013) through the introduction of climate variable (i.e., average daily summer temperature). The
introduction of variable temperature improved the prediction demand models in terms of measures of
goodness-of-fit (i.e., adjusted r-square and p-value).
 Development of a general methodology for the construction of scenarios in the short, medium and
long-terms based on the Scenario Planning Approach.
 Application and validation of proposed methodology for the construction of short- and long-term
demand scenarios, considering 21 DMA distributed throughout the country (north and centre-south
region).
 Development of a computational application for scenario model implementation using as C#

programming language. This application allows projecting domestic water demand for an unknown
DMA, in terms of demand variables and demand patterns, based on scenario planning in short,
medium, and long-terms at the DMA level. Additionally, it allows evaluating and comparing the
different scenarios developed for the planning, design and operation of water distribution
infrastructures by the water utilities.
6.3. Future developments
During the development of current research, the following gaps have been identified being issues that deserve
future research work to be developed:
 The incorporation of new factors (key-variables) that affected domestic water consumption in the
prediction demand models, such as pressure, family income or water price.
 The incorporation of the water availability in the construction of demand scenarios.
 The analysis of the evolution of water demand since the current situation until the last year of the
period of analysis.
 The test of the robustness (consistency and plausibility) of calculated demand scenarios.
 The improvement of the limitations of scenario model implementation in terms of the selection of the
unknown DMA and of the trends introduced.
96
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Appendix A – Classification of temporal and spatial scales
APPENDIX A – CLASSIFICATION OF TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL SCALES

Purpose: this appendix presented the classification of temporal and spatial scales in research works with
different goals: water management, water modeling and water demand forecasting.
Table 40 – Temporal and spatial scales
Domain Temporal scale Spatial scale Author

Long-term: 40 years or more Global
Medium-term: 15-40 years National Collins et al. (2009)
Short-term: 15 years Local
Long-term: 25-100 years - Haasnoot et al. (2011)
Long-term: 50-70 years
- Lienert et al. (2006)
Medium-term: 25-30 years
European
Water management
Long-term: 50 years or more

Regional Kamari et al. (2008)
Pilot area
Medium-term: 3-5 years Water supply system Alegre and Covas (2010)
Short-term: 1-2 years
Medium-term: 2-5 years - Vanier (2000)
Short-term: until 2 years
- Bellfield (2001)
Very-short-term: weeks
Water modelling
Global
Medium-term: 15-40 years Alcamo et al. (2007)
Continental
Short-term: 15 years
Medium-term: 30-60 years - Beyene et al. (2010)
Short-term: 30 years
Water demand
- Billings and Jones (2008)

forecasting

Very-short-term: weeks or days
Gardiner and Herrington
Medium-term: 1-10 years -
(1990)
Short-term: until 1 year
109
Appendix B – Factors (key-variables) that influence domestic water consumption
APPENDIX B – FACTORS (KEY-VARIABLES) THAT INFLUENCE DOMESTIC WATER CONSUMPTION

Purpose: this appendix presented the factors (key-variables) that influence domestic water consumption divided by categories and respectively research
works.
Table 41 – Factors (key-variables) that influence domestic water consumption
Categories Sub-categories Key-variables Research works

Agthe and Billings (1987), Miaou (1990), Stephenson (1999), Arbués et
Marginal price (real and nominal), average price, al. (2003), White et al. (2003), Arbués et al. (2004), Babel et al. (2007),
Pricing
Economic
difference price, and average revenue price Corbella and Pujol (2009), Jorgensen et al. (2009), Schleich and
Hillenbrand (2009), Loureiro (2010), Hoffman and Du Plessis (2013)
Martinez-Espineira (2002), Arbués et al. (2003), Babel et al. (2007),
Marginal block price, fixed component of water
Tariff structure Corbella and Pujol (2009), Jorgensen et al. (2009), Loureiro (2010),
and sewerage bill, and billing period
Hoffman and Du Plessis (2013)
Agthe and Billings (1987), Edwards and Martin (1995), Barkatullah
Number of persons in household, number of (1996), Renwick and Archibald (1998), Höglund (1999), Arbues and
Population dependents per household, small families (1 or 2 Villanua (2000), Arbués et al. (2003), White et al. (2003), Babel et al.
(household size) elements), medium families (3 or 4 elements), (2007), Corbella and Pujol (2009), Jorgensen et al. (2009), Schleich and
large families (≥ 5 elements) Hillenbrand (2009), Loureiro (2010), March et al. (2010), Beal and
Stewart (2011), Mamade (2013)
Population over 64 years and under 19 years, Alegre et al. (1992), Nauges and Thomas (2000), Burnell (2003), White et
Population’s age
and number of adults and children, people above al. (2003), Corbella and Pujol (2009), Jorgensen et al. (2009), Schleich
structure
65 years and Hillenbrand (2009), March et al. (2010), Garcia et al. (2013)
Socio-demographic
Ratio of the total population to the university White et al. (2003), Babel et al. (2007), Corbella and Pujol (2009),
Education/Knowledge
students, university graduates, people with 12 Jorgensen et al. (2009), Coomes et al. (2010), Loureiro (2010), Mamade
and awareness
years of education (2013)
Carver and Boland (1980), Agthe and Billings (1987), Miaou (1990),
Average Household income, real income, median Alegre et al. (1992), Martinez-Espineira (2002), Arbués et al. (2003), Loh
Income household income, per capita income, income and Coghlan (2003), White et al. (2003), Arbués et al. (2004), Cole
per household member, monthly income (2004), Syme et al. (2004), Corbella and Pujol (2009), Jorgensen et al.
(2009), Schleich and Hillenbrand (2009), Loureiro (2010)
Economic mobility, social mobility, inactive
Individuals Loureiro (2010), Mamade (2013)
workers
Gender - Corbella and Pujol (2009), Jorgensen et al. (2009), Makki et al. (2011)
Multiculturalism - Burnell (2003), Smith and Ali (2006), Corbella and Pujol (2009)
Migratory processes - Nauges and Reynaud (2001), Corbella and Pujol (2009)
Tourism Tourism index Martinez-Espineira (2002), White et al. (2003)
110
Appendix B – Factors (key-variables) that influence domestic water consumption
Table 41 – Factors (key-variables) that influence domestic water consumption
Categories Sub-categories Key-variables Research works

Number of households, presence of swimming Agthe and Billings (1987), Babel et al. (2007), Jorgensen et al. (2009),
Property size
pool, type of yard vegetation Coomes et al. (2010)
Property value, number of bathrooms, number Barkatullah (1996), Nauges and Thomas (2000), White et al. (2003),
Housing typology
of bedrooms, and number of faucets Corbella and Pujol (2009), Coomes et al. (2010)
Percentage of home built before 1939,
White et al. (2003), Garcia and Reynaud (2004), Jorgensen et al. (2009),
Property age proportion of houses built after 1982, year home
Coomes et al. (2010)
built, and built after 1994
Average annual (C), average temperature in the Miaou (1990), Timmins (2002), Arbués et al. (2003), Martinez-Espineira
Temperature summer month, average maximum daily (2002), Babel et al. (2007), Corbella and Pujol (2009), Coomes et al.
temperature, and average monthly temperature (2010), Maidment and Miaou (1986), Hoffmann et al. (2006)
Annual (mm), total rainfall recorded in the Miaou (1990), Renwick and Archibald (1998), Arbués et al. (2003), Babel
Climate
Rainfall summer months, cumulative monthly rainfall, et al. (2007), Corbella and Pujol (2009), Ozkaynak and Rodriguez-Labajos
and average monthly precipitation (2010)
Moisture - Corbella and Pujol (2009)
Irradiation - Corbella and Pujol (2009)
Evaporation Evaporation less rainfall Agthe and Billings (1987), Arbués et al. (2003), White et al. (2003)
Infrastructure
Condition of home
networking and - White et al. (2003)
preassure
Technological
Technical innovation - White et al. (2003), Jorgensen et al. (2009)

Regulations
ordinances
Water regulation and White et al. (2003), Martinez-Espineira (2005), Babel et al. (2007),
and
Number of daily hours of restrictions

restrictions Jorgensen et al. (2009)
111

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Water Demand Projection in Distribution Systems using a Novel

Scenario Planning Approach

Marta Sofia Ferreira Cabral

Thesis to obtain the Master of Science Degree in

Chairperson: Prof. José Manuel de Saldanha Gonçalves Matos

A metodologia proposta encontra-se estrutura em três módulos: 1. Definição do âmbito, 2. Caracterização

Palavras-chave: projecção da procura de água, abordagem de planeamento de cenários, sistemas de

2.2.1. An overview ................................................................................................................. 5

2.4.1. Concepts .................................................................................................................... 14

2.6.1. Data processing ......................................................................................................... 27

3.2.1. General methodology................................................................................................ 35

3.3.1. Data processing ......................................................................................................... 41

Symbol Meaning Units

e Price elasticity of demand [-]

Other factors, such as income, household type, or household

c Threshold value to be defined by the user (c>0) [-]

β Regression parameter or coefficients

ε Random error, representing the discrepancy in the approximation

1.1. Context and motivation

1.2. Objectives and expected results

To achieve the proposed goal, the specific objectives need to be attained:

 development of an extensive state-of-the-art review about scenario planning in a broad context as

 analysis of the effect of the temperature (as an explanatory variable) on consumption;

The expected outputs of the current research work include:

 an improvement of demand prediction models by the incorporation of temperature;

 Chapter 4 verifies the influence of temperature on water consumption to be incorporated as an

Chapter 3 - Proposed methodology

Chapter 4 - Influence of temperature on water

Chapter 5 - Demand scenarios at the district meter

Figure 1 – Work structure

2.2. Scenario planning

Table 1 – Definitions of scenario

A forecast is a statement by a weather forecaster that it will rain at 3:30

[Uncertainty is] any deviation from the unachievable ideal of completely

Define Characterize Construct Test Develop Embed

Prioritize Identify the Establish Verify the Create Define action

2.3. Scenarios in a broad context

Table 4 – Scenario development techniques in a broad context

Schools of scenario techniques Research works

Ringland (1998), Berkhout and Hertin (2002), Mietzner and Reger

Intuitive logics schools is referred as a social constructivist model or a non-probabilistic scenario

2.4. Scenarios in the water domain

Table 5 – Definition of domestic consumption and water demand

Water demand scenario

District Meter Area (DMA)

Table 6 – DMA size in terms of service connections range

Number of service connections Author

500 – 3000 Farley and Trow (2003)

250 – 500 Jankovic-Nišic et al. (2004)

200 – 2000 Loureiro (2010)

2.4.2. Decisions levels

Levels Strategic Tactical Operational

Administrator of Operational head of

Results Strategies Tactics Program of actions

Time horizon Long-term Medium-term Short-term

Sub-system and critical

2.4.3. Examples of scenarios

Table 8 – Examples of water scenario studies in the water domain

Water domain Research works

SCENES Kamari et al. (2008), van Vliet et al. (2010)

WBCSD WBCSD (2006), Claassen et al. (2013)

Alcamo et al. (2000), Gallopín and Rijsberman (2000), Carter et al.

2.5. Water consumption factors (key-variables)