PSVM Subsea Operations - Technical Note

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Risk Review of FPSO Excessive Roll Angle Effect on Subsea Infrastructure

lorne.gifford Digitally signed by
lorne.gifford@uk.bp.com

Author: Lorne Gifford @uk.bp.com

DN: cn=lorne.gifford@uk.bp.com
Date: 2013.05.01 15:26:03 +01'00' Date: 01 May 2013 Doc: ANG-B31-OSS-TEC-0106
Approved: Neil Kitney Date: 01 May 2013 Revision: A1

Introduction

This document presents an analysis of the effects of high FPSO roll angles recorded by the roll sensor on 29 & 30th April
2013. Roll angles up to 8 degrees were recorded. Expected roll angle due to 100 year environmental conditions is 6
degrees.

Risk Summary

Risk
Risk Title Risk Owner Scenario - Risk Event Location Cause
Type/Group
Excessive heave, pitch or
Loss of dynamic FPSO
Loss of Lorne wave height results in Overstress &
flexible fluid directly
containment Gifford overstress and failure of accelerated fatigue
containment below turret
dynamic flexibles

Existing Barriers & Mitigations

Barriers - Existing Control Measures

Existing Mitigation Measures
Plant Process People

Flexibles are
Flexibles have been
designed for 100yr
pressure tested. Periodic
return period and for Marine crew Alert system notification of high roll
annulus vent testing is
various broken URF Team angle
performed to verify
mooring line
integrity
scenarios

Current Risk

 Risk assessed is accelerated degradation leading to loss of fluid containment from flexible due to damage sustained
in the possible overstress event. Flexibles may have been overstressed or damaged by the excessive roll, although
this will depend on FPSO offset and other environmental movements such as heave, pitch or wave height which are
not being recorded as the sensors are non-functional. Rapid deterioration could lead to failure before next annulus
vent testing. Vessel response from the environmental event appears to have exceeded the 100 year return design
conditions. Probability = 1e-5 to 1e-4; one step right of standard design risk. Likelihood score is 3.
 Safety consequence from rupture of high pressure gas line or gas escape from production line under packing
conditions is loss of 10+ lives = C
 Worst case environmental consequence is failure of a production flexible, resulting in an oil spill of several hundred
barrels = F
 Worst case Non-Financial impact is international media coverage for an oil spill or loss of life. = D
 Worst case financial impact is also loss of FPSO plus risers, but not subsea infrastructure = C

Likelihood Impact A-H HSSE Risk Business Risk

Non-
1 to 8 Safety Enviro Financial 1 to 15 1 to 15
Financial

3 C F D C 8 8

Action Plan

Additional Risk Reduction Measures (including deliverables) Action Owner Completion Date

Collate actual environmental data for event (via data recorded by FPSO or hindsight
Assign to SPA
forecasting), along with actual FPSO ballast condition and actual alignment to weather

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Perform analysis with existing FPSO RAOs to see if angle of roll is replicated. If angle
Assign to SPA
is not replicated then RAOs need to be re-calculated.
With actual FPSO offset, and either actual or assumed heave and pitch, perform
analysis of flexibles to verify if overstress occurred. If overstress occurred identify Assign to SPA
location and identify which flexible.
Compile any recommendations for ROV, diver or topside survey of flexible, bend
Assign to SPA
stiffener, hang-off.
If event was close to or exceeded 100 year environmental conditions then the 100 year
design conditions need to be re-assessed as this event has occurred within year 1 of
operation and is statistically unlikely to have occurred.

Risk After Action Plan Completed

 Likelihood reduced to 1e-6 to 1e-5 per year. This is the typical probability based on correct design and suitable
safeguards for over design risk mitigation. Likelihood score = 2
 Consequences remain the same as before

Likelihood Impact A-H HSSE Risk Business Risk

Non-
1 to 8 Safety Enviro Financial 1 to 15 1 to 15
Financial

2 C F D C 7 7

Anomaly Description

FPSO roll angle exceeded Hi (5 degrees) and HiHi (6 degrees) alert settings on 29/30 April 2013:

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Peak roll angle recorded was approximately 8 degrees.

Discussion with offshore Marine Superintendent confirms high roll angles were experienced:

-----------------------------------

From: PSVM Marine Superintendent

Sent: 01 May 2013 09:18
To: Gifford, Lorne C. (Orion Engineering); PSVM E & I Sup
Cc: Jayson, Daniel
Subject: RE: Excessive roll angle on FPSO

Lorne,

It was rolling heavily here – worst we had was 6 degrees. The readings you saw were not spurious.
Jim – we spoke with Colin about the sensors below – any progress?

Brgds,

Cian

---------------------------------------

From: Gifford, Lorne C. (Orion Engineering)

Sent: 01 May 2013 09:13
To: PSVM Marine Superintendent
Cc: Jayson, Daniel
Subject: FW: Excessive roll angle on FPSO

Cian / Grant

Can you confirm the high roll angles (of around 5 degrees) over the last couple of days.

Also, can you advise if we have any progress on remediating the wave height, pitch and heave sensors on the MMS.

Thanks

Lorne

Lorne Gifford
Subsea Engineer

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BP Exploration (Angola) Limited

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A roll angle exceeding 6 degrees is greater than expected during 100 year environmental conditions. Reference ,
‘Vessel Motions Analysis Report’, BLK31-NE-MI-NA-REP-0005. The below from page 177 of this report:

Maximum In-situ Roll Amplitudes

Wave Case 86% 67% 48%
100-yr Swell Case 1 2.4 4.0 6.0
Case 2 0.8 1.0 2.7
Case 3 3.3 5.4 5.8
100-yr Sea Case 1 2.3 3.8 4.1
Case 2 2.2 3.7 3.5
Case 3 2.4 4.0 4.4
All Cases 3.3 5.4 6.0

However, the Roll Sensor is part of the Marine Monitoring System that includes bow wave height, pitch and heave.
Reference Anomaly Technical Note TEC-0047, wave height, pitch and heave are giving unreliable readings. The
recorded roll angle of 8 degrees may also be unreliable, and although actual high roll was reported, the value may be
closer to the 6 degrees noted by the Marine Superintendent.

The maximum roll angle of 6 degrees was used in flexible extreme analyses in combination with flooded riser tower
buoyancy tanks and broken mooring lines. These condition combinations would have induced higher stresses in the
flexibles than a roll angle of 8 degrees with no tank flooding or mooring line failure and therefore immediate or short term
failure of the flexibles is not considered viable.

Conclusions

 Actual high roll occurred as this was reported by the Marine Superintendent
 The recorded 8 degree roll angle may not be accurate
 Further work is required to verify actual roll angle
 Further work is required to collate additional motion responses occurring at the same time (heave, pitch, offset from
central mooring point)
 Analysis is required to verify if RAOs in use for FPSO are accurate
 Analysis is required to ascertain if flexibles were overstressed

Outstanding Actions

 Collate actual environmental data for event (via data recorded by FPSO or hindsight forecasting), along with actual
FPSO ballast condition and actual alignment to weather
 Perform analysis with existing FPSO RAOs to see if angle of roll is replicated. If angle is not replicated then RAOs
need to be re-calculated.
 With actual FPSO offset, and either actual or assumed heave and pitch, perform analysis of flexibles to verify if
overstress occurred. If overstress occurred identify location and identify which flexible.
 Compile any recommendations for ROV, diver or topside survey of flexible, bend stiffener, hang-off.
 If event was close to or exceeded 100 year environmental conditions then the 100 year design conditions need to be
re-assessed as this event has occurred within year 1 of operation and is statistically unlikely to have occurred.

Anomaly Action Plan

 Investigate – see Outstanding Actions

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Contacts

For further information, please contact:

Name: Lorne Gifford,
Title: Subsea Engineer,
Phone: +44(0)7976159943; Email: Lorne.Gifford@uk.bp.com

References

Vessel Motions Analysis Report’, BLK31-NE-MI-NA-REP-0005.

Anomaly Technical Note ANG-B31-OSS-TEC-0047,

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Appendix – Risk Map

100+ fatalities Widespread damage to environment which Public or investor outrage on a global scale.
A remains unsatisfactory for > 5 years. Threat of global loss of license to operate. >$20 billion

50+ fatalities Extensive damage to environment which Loss of license to operate a major asset in a $5 billion - $20
B remains unsatisfactory for > 5 years major market – US, EU, Russia. billion

10+ fatalities Extensive damage to environment which Loss of license to operate other material
$1 billion - $5
C can be restored to satisfactory in < 5 years asset, or severe enforcement action against
billion
a major asset in a major market.

3+ fatalities or Extensive damage to environment which Prolonged adverse national or international

30+ injuries can be restored to an equivalent capability media attention. $100 m to $1
D billion
in around 1 year Widespread adverse social impact.

1+ fatalities or Localized damage to environment which can Short term adverse national or international
E 10+ injuries be restored to an equivalent capability in media coverage. $5m -$100 m
around 1 year Relationship damage with key stakeholders
2+ DAFWC Localized damage to environment which Prolonged local media coverage.
F can be restored to an equivalent capability Local adverse social impact. $500k-$5m
in a period of months.

1 DAFWC Immediate area damage to environment Short term local media coverage.
G which can be restored to an equivalent Some disruption to local operations $50k -$500k
capability in a period of months.
First aid Immediate area damage to environment and Isolated and short term complaints from
H which can be restored to an equivalent neighbours <$50k
capability in a period of days

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