Prof: Irina Marinov Dec 2018

Global Climate Change - study guide for the final

Your final exam will focus on physical concepts rather than memorization. You will need to go through
the lecture notes and supplement with readings and think all the possible mechanisms through. There will
be a few scientific terms (such as buffering or heat capacity) you will need to memorize, these are ALL
included in the answers to the questions below or in HWs/Labs. No memorization of numbers with very
few exceptions, all included below.

Homeworks: Go through all your HWs and Labs since the Midterm.

Lecture 9: The changing carbon cycle

Carbon Budgets:
1. What 3 countries (in order) are at present the biggest NET emitters of CO 2 on the planet?

2. What is the impact of industry outsourcing to the developing world on CO 2 emissions by developed
and developing countries?

3. In class we looked at a map of CO2 emissions/uptake from agriculture. What are the main areas of
emission and uptake in the US and Europe and Asia and why? The US is a net exporter of agricultural
products. What does this imply about carbon emissions? What is the net impact of agriculture on
atmospheric carbon in the longer term average?

4. Are fossil fuel emissions at present higher in the developed or developing countries and who is the
main culprit for the observed recent growth?

5. How much of the anthropogenic CO2 we put in the atmosphere stays in the atmosphere versus being
taken up by the ocean and land? (approximate numbers). Also look at the land and ocean sinks of carbon
(in GtC/year). Is there more year to year (interannual) variability in the land or ocean components?

6. Are the seasonal cycles of atmospheric CO2 larger in the ocean or on land?

7. How are the seasonal atmospheric CO2 variations in the N hemisphere different from those in the S
Hemisphere and why?

Lecture 10. Mechanisms of global carbon uptake

1. You are shown the carbon buffer equation (CO2+ CO32-  2HCO3-). Explain the meaning of this
equation. Assume that you put more CO2 into the atmosphere. What impact will this have on the
concentration of carbonate in the ocean and why? (hint: think about LeChatelier’s principle) What will
then be the impact on the further ocean carbon uptake?

2. What are some issues with ocean acidification? In particular, discuss very briefly the impacts on coral
reefs, coccolithophores (phytoplankton) and foraminifera (zooplankton) and why this is happening. Given
the equations for calcification and decomposition (which governs the dissolution of organism shells and
coral reefs): Ca2+ + 2HCO3-  CaCO3 + CO2 + H2O; CaCO3 + CO2 + H2O-  Ca2+ + 2HCO3-
can you explain which way these equations are going to go under increased atmospheric CO 2?

3. (from class notes, Feely 2009; Orr et al. 2005; see your HW)

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- Draw a typical depth profile of pH and carbonate in the ocean from the surface to 1000m depth. Explain
what are the main patterns.
- Where is the aragonite saturation depth closer to the surface (less deep), in the Pacific or in the Atlantic
and why?
- Explain the latitudinal pattern of CO32- in Figure 1 of Orr et al. 2005.
- What will be the impact of acidification on the aragonite and calcite saturation depths and what does this
mean for organisms?

The Ocean’s natural carbon pumps.

4. The ocean stores about 60 times more carbon than the atmosphere. The reason for this is the solubility
carbon pump and the biological carbon pump. Describe briefly each of these pumps.
Hint: you can use the Coke analogy to think of the solubility pump, i.e., will an open Coke go flat faster
in the cold winter or in the warm summer? So will cold or warm liquids hold more gas (CO2)?

5. Based on the Coke analogy, will the ocean hold more or less CO 2 in a warmer future world? Why?

6. What is the ocean biological pump and what is the impact of the biological pump on nutrients and CO 2
distributions in the ocean? Explain in words (and a picture if you want). Write down schematically the
basic equations for photosynthesis and respiration (remineralization, degradation of organic matter). Use
these in your explanation.

7. (review from earlier lectures) Are there more or fewer nutrients and CO2 in the deep ocean relative to
the surface? Explain why and draw a nutrient vertical profile by hand.

8. Is there CO2 ingassing or outgassing in the E Pacific Equatorial tongue and why? (based on the pictures
of air-sea CO2 flux in the modern ocean)? How about in the high latitude North Atlantic and why?

Anthropogenic Carbon Uptake

9. The ocean has the chemical capacity to take up about 85% of the CO 2 emitted into the atmosphere
today. However, only about ¼ of the CO2 we put in the atmosphere ends up in the ocean. Why?

10. What are preferential pathways by which anthropogenic carbon enters the ocean? (See last 3 figures in
the lecture)

Lecture 11. Mechanisms of global carbon uptake – Part 2.

1. Recent observations have shown an increase in the Southern Ocean Westerlies over the past 40 years.
Models predict a further increase in Southern Ocean Westerlies over the next 100 years. What will the
impact of increasing winds be on the ocean carbon storage, ocean biological pump and why? What are the
consequences for the efficiency of the oceanic carbon sink (i.e., for the fraction of CO 2 taken up by the
ocean), and for atmospheric CO2? If the increase in winds is due (in the first place) to increased
atmospheric CO2 and temperature levels, will the above mechanism be a positive or negative feedback on
atmospheric CO2?

2. At the same time, an increase in Southern Ocean winds has been suggested to increase the intermediate
and mode waters forming in the Southern ocean, and the uptake of new anthropogenic CO 2 in the
Southern Ocean. Is this a positive of negative feedback? Will this mechanism act in the same
direction/opposite directions as the above?

The terrestrial Carbon Sink.

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3. What is the CO2 fertilization effect? Why do you think there a saturation of the CO2 fertilization effect
(as noticed at the Duke forest and in other experimental locations where CO2 was artificially enhanced
over vegetation)?

4. The average tree age in the US and Europe is 40-70 yrs, suggesting that these trees are primarily a
product of reforestation during the 20th century. What are the implications of this for the global carbon
cycle and atmospheric CO2? (remember that North America and Europe have been a net sink of Carbon
for the past 100 years because of aggressive reforestation programs; this reforestation has now slowed
down).

5. Because of increasing population, we expect that there will be increased Nitrogen fertilization of
agricultural soils in China and India. What will the impacts of this on total carbon storage in soils and
atmospheric CO2? What if instead we started putting more N fertilizers in forests in North America, what
would be the impact on the carbon cycle?

6. What are the impacts on land carbon storage and atmospheric carbon of the following mechanisms?
(Note: you can think of equivalent questions for the ocean carbon cycle)
In each case specify whether: land carbon storage will increase/decrease/stay the same; atmospheric
carbon will increase/decrease/stay the same:
reforestation/deforestation
forest regrowth
wildfires/suppression of fires.
Longer growing season for vegetation
Dieback of the Amazon due to water stress (and replacement with savannas)
Impact of warmer temperature on soil respiration.
Impact of high CO2 on plant growth (CO2 fertilization effect)

7. Which of the following mechanisms would be positive or negative feedbacks to an increase in

atmospheric temperature? Explain:
Length of the growing season of trees
Length of the growing season of phytoplankton in the ocean
Increase in wildfires (due to increased dryness in the atmosphere) (hint: fires burn trees, i.e. organic
matter)
Drying of the Amazon
Increase in soil erosion
Changes in the permafrost
CO2 fertilization of photosynthesis (most plants grow faster when raised under increased CO 2 conditions)
Respiration in soils (= decomposition of organic matter by bacteria in soils)
The ocean solubility pump (which way will this change following increased temperature)?
More dust input to the oceans (think of the effect on the biological pump, i.e. iron fertilization)
More dust in the atmosphere (think of the direct effect of dust to reflect/scatter more incoming solar
radiation)

8. Roughly how much carbon is in the permafrost, where is most of it, and what will happen with it with
climate warming? (see also notes on Permafrost from your last, Arctic lecture, 2 pages from the IPCC
report were give to you in class)

Mechanisms for Regulating carbon on long time scales (the slow carbon cycle)

Review your Lab 4 and slides.

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8. Explain the difference between the fast and slow carbon cycles

9. Explain what is chemical weathering, and how carbon can end up from the atmosphere to the bottom of
the ocean.

10. Describe the Silicate Weathering Thermostat given the 2 equations from class (chemical weathering
on land and melting/transformation in subduction zone). What timescales does this process work on?

11. Is the weathering of Silicate a stabilizing or destabilizing feedback for the planet? A positive or a
negative feedback? Explain with a feedback diagram. Consider the example of a gradual brightening of
the Sun which results in increased precipitation and vegetation coverage.

12. Explain how changes in the rate of sea floor spreading can affect the rate of delivery of CO 2 to the
atmosphere.

13. (from your last Lab 4) Given the reservoirs of carbon on Earth and the carbon fluxes between them
shown in the cartoon in Lab4, review the residence timescale of a carbon molecule in the atmosphere,
ocean land, sedimentary rocks. Compare these numbers with the relevant timescales you found in HW1
for a water molecule (for the ocean and atmosphere pools). Does this make sense?

14. If we put in the atmosphere 5000PgC in the next 200-300 years, explain what would happen to this
atmospheric Carbon. How long would it take for most of this CO2 to leave the atmosphere?

Lecture 12: Paleoclimate Part 1 : The last 50 Myrs.

1. Raymo and Ruddiman (1992) proposed that the rise of the Himalayas/Tibet explains the cooling of the
planet over the past 50 Myrs. Explain their argument.

2. A figure from class (Fig 6.12, Ruddiman chapter) shows the seafloor spreading rate decreasing from 60
Myrs to about 10 Myrs ago, and then started to increase. Could that help explain the variations in
atmospheric CO2 and temp over the past 50Myrs.

3. In trying to understand the cooling of the climate over the past 50Myr, scientists have looked at 2 other
potential mechanisms:
* Closing of the Isthmus of Panama
* Opening of the Drake Passage
What was the effect of each of these on temperature/heat redistribution in the ocean and on climate?

4. Explain how the opening of the Drake Passage allowed the expansion of the Antarctic Ice sheet about
30 Myrs ago.

Lecture 13: Paleoclimate Part 2 : An overview of past Earth climates

1. How does our present climate compare with past climates throughout Earth History? Place the present
climate in the context of the last 2.8 Myr, the last 50 Myr and the last 250 Myrs.

2. We know that the Sun had a much weaker luminosity (faint) earlier in the history of the Earth. How
come then the Earth did not completely freeze over? This is called “the faint young Sun paradox (Kum
Ch 12, Fig 12-2 from Kump in your page 1 slides).

3. The early atmosphere had tons of CO2 and N2 and H2. The rise of methanogenic bacteria resulted in

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tons of CH4 also in the atmosphere. The rise of photosynthesizing organisms (cyanobacteria) resulted in
an initial rise in atmospheric O2 2.4 Byr ago. Explain how this rise in oxygen resulted in the first snowball
episode (called the Huronian glaciation). (hint: atmospheric reaction is O 2 + CH4  CO2 + H2O).

4. During Carboniferous (~300Myrs ago) 2 things happened: (a) continents continued to move toward the
equator and (b) vascular plants/big trees developed on land (resulting in changes in organic carbon
burial). Explain how each of these 2 processes affected atmospheric CO 2 and temperature.

5. Paleomagnetic records indicate faster seafloor spreading rate during the Mesozoic Era (age of
dinosaurs, 250-65 Myrs ago) compared to the earlier period. Explain what would be the impact on
atmospheric CO2 and temperatures.

6. (a) What was the impact of the meteorite that hit Mexico 65 Myr ago (the so-called K-T event at the
Cretaceous-tertiary boundary) on land plants and animals ?
(b) Presumably the ash from the meteorite impact contained toxic elements such as Co, Cd, Zn. These
ended up also in the ocean. What were presumably the consequences for ocean biology and the biological
pump?
(c) Draw by hand a profile (concentration versus depth in the ocean) of some typical nutrient (NO 3, PO4)
in the ocean after the K-T event and explain why it looks the way it does.

7. The PETM (Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum) event is thought of as a good analogy to the
changes we are now producing to the system.
a. Mid-ocean ridge volcanism (last stages of breakup of Pangea) likely destabilized the frozen marine
chlaterates deposits in the deep ocean at PETM. What would be the implications for ocean and
atmosphere and why?
b. What do you think happened to O2 in the ocean and hence with zooplankton and why?
c. How is the PETM similar and how is it different from the present climate change? Are we presently
doing more or less harm to life than at PETM and why? (see also Concluding Lecture for this question)

Lecture 14, Glacial-Interglacial cycles (Paleoclimate part 3)

1. What are isotopes? How many protons/neutrons/electrons do each of the neutrally charged stable
isotopes of oxygen 16O, 17O, 18O have? How about 13C and 14C?

2. Rayleigh distillation: Explain whether ice caps (at the northern or southern Pole) are depleted or
enriched in 18O relative to seawater. What are the implications of this for glacial periods? That is, how and
why will the 18O values of seawater (as recorded in deep-sea cores) and glaciers (as recorded in ice
cores) change between glacial and interglacial periods? Based on the above information, you should be
able to tell when shown a  18O record whether this record is a deep-sea or ice core record.
On a figure showing  18O versus time in (a) ocean sediments and (b) Greenland or Antarctic ice cores
label the del 18O bars with warm and cold. Explain your thinking.

3. Explain what eccentricity and obliquity are and what are their effects on the earth’s climate? If the
eccentricity and obliquity increase, what are the impacts on climate and why?

4. Can you guess whether the eccentricity of our planet was at the last glacial maximum (larger, smaller)
relative to today? Make a schematic of the present Earth and LGM Earth moving around the Sun, with the
axis of the planet indicated and explain your thinking. (hint: remember that Milankovitch theory relates
the beginning of glaciations with a certain time of year in the Northern Hemisphere).

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5. Going into a glaciation, as the Earth cooled and precipitation changed (which way?) there was an
impact on plant productivity on land in the tropics. What was that and is that a positive or a negative
feedback in the system? Can this partly explain the lower CO 2 during the LGM?

6. Draw a flowchart of the ice-albedo feedback and explain it also in words. Can this have contributed to
differences in temperature between glacial and interglacials?

7. Did sea level increase or decrease during glaciations compared to interglacials and why?

Scientists now think that the decreases in terrestrial biomass would have resulted in about 10ppm
higher (rather than lower) CO2 during glacials, compared to interglacials. Therefore, it is presently
thought that most of the 90ppm difference in CO2 between glacials and interglacials is due to
oceanic mechanisms. Below are some of the major theories that have been proposed to explain these
changes (or amplify some initial small change in CO2):

8. Hypothesis 1. The Shelf nutrient hypothesis:

Glacial sea level changed, exposing more or less PO 4 rich sediments to weathering (erosion by wind,
precipitation, etc.). What will be the impact of this mechanism on carbon storage in the ocean and
atmospheric CO2 and why? Assuming that the glacial sea level change was due in the first place to a drop
in temperature, will this be a positive/feedback on atmospheric temperature? Draw a flowchart.

9. Hypothesis 3: The Fe fertilization hypothesis:

- Where is most of the dust contained within the global atmosphere emitted from?
- Do you think there was more or less dust during the last glacial maximum compared to today and why?
How do climate scientists see that?
- Changes in dust levels resulted in changes in Fe during glacials compared to interglacials. Explain what
are the implications of this for ocean productivity, ocean carbon storage and atmospheric CO2 levels?
Does this agree or not with the ice-core records from Antarctica? (think about your graph in Lab 3).
- In class I showed a map of modern surface nitrate concentrations. Why do you think the surface nitrate
concentration is highest in the Southern ocean and North Pacific and North Atlantic?
- Oceanic Fe fertilization has been proposed as a potential mechanism for “fixing” the climate. Explain
why this might be a good mechanism or why not. Where do you think one should perform such
experiments?

10. Hypothesis 5: The Keeling sea-ice mechanism:

Keeling argued that during glacials the sea-ice cover in the Southern Ocean was extensive (compared to
interglacials). What do you think the implications of that would be the amount of carbon stored in the
ocean and for atmospheric CO2?

11. Hypothesis 6: Change in Southern Ocean winds mechanism:

Toggweiler suggested that shifts in the strength of Southern Ocean westerlies would have resulted in large
changes in atmospheric pCO2 from cold glacials to warm interglacials.
Explain the mechanism.

12. Do you think you can extract more or less information from the top 1000m of an ice core or from the
bottom 1000m of an ice core? Explain.

13. An ice core of the same length (say 3km) in Greenland (e.g GISP2 ice core) versus Antarctica (e.g.,
EPICA ice core) shows us very different information about the past. Explain what information and why.

Lecture 15, The Southern Ocean and Climate.

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1. Antarctica is the coldest continent. Why?

2. Of the O(1W/m2) extra anthropogenic warming added to the planet (this is the greenhouse effect due to
fossil fuel, cement and land-use change) how much goes into the oceans, and in the Southern Ocean?
Where does the rest go?

3. Mention two or more reasons why the Southern Ocean is critically important for the modern climate.

4. Which parts of Antarctica are more stable and which ones are melting more? (hint: the latter is where
most of the Antarctic news are coming from)

5. In the future, do we expect higher or less salty waters in the Arctic & Antarctic and why? What will be
the consequences for AABW formation?

6. What are 3 Southern-Ocean relevant feedbacks proposed to explain the glacial-interglacial variation of
atmospheric CO2 and temperature? (reminder from previous lectures)

Note: “A few words on Ocean biology” – pages 7 through 9, not covered in class, you can disregard.

7. How do scientists know atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and other gases in the past?

8. List some types of measurements commonly made on ice cores.

9. Scientists think that Heinrich events are characterized by large discharges of fresh water to the North
Atlantic (via land glaciers breaking from the North American continent). What is the evidence for
Heinrich events?

10. Based on oceanic circulation (and heat transport) theory, explain what will be the implications for
North Atlantic and Southern Ocean temperature? What do you think will be the implications for sea level
and atmospheric methane levels and why?

11. Explain from class plots of temperature (from  18O) and CO2 variations during DO events what the
BIPOLAR SEE-SAW effect is. What are the impacts of Heinrich events on the Southern Ocean and
atmospheric pCO2:?

Lecture 16: Arctic warming:

Parts 1 and 2:
1. Why is the Arctic warming faster than the rest of the planet? (mention at least 1 major reason) What
are the consequences for sea ice, and will this be a positive or a negative feedback on climate?

2. What is happening with the age of the sea ice in the Arctic according to the 4th US National Climate
Report?

3. Will waters in the Arctic ocean get fresher or saltier and why? Mention at least 3 reasons for this.

4. Let’s assume that some of the melting ice from the Arctic flows in the subpolar North Atlantic around
Greenland and Iceland. What will be the consequences for NADW? Is this a negative or a positive

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feedback on Northern hemisphere temperatures?

5. What will happen with the Arctic permafrost? Also, what are Arctic methane hydrates, and what is
expected to happen with these in the future as climate is warming and sea levels are increasing? Is this a
positive or a negative feedback on climate?

6. What do you think: will Arctic ocean productivity increase or decrease in the near future? How about
terrestrial productivity in the far North (tundra in Asia or the Canadian Arctic, Alaska)?

7. What are similarities and differences between recent (observed) climate change in the Arctic and
Antarctica? Consider: net sea ice extent, rate of ice loss from the respective ice sheets; temperatures.

Final Thoughts 2018 lecture slides:

1. Our fossil fuel reservoirs are estimated at 5000PgC. Assume that we burn all of these, putting a large
spike of CO2 into the atmosphere.
a. Draw by hand the expected curve of atmospheric pCO2 versus time, indicating the time scale.
b. What is the role of seawater buffering? CO2+CO32-+H2O 2HCO3-
Until when will this reaction continue and what will happen then?

c. How long will it take for atmospheric CO2 to go back to its initial value? What are the two main
mechanisms that result in the eventual decrease in atmospheric CO 2? Explain.
d. What did Archer and Ganapolski’s (2005) modeling work suggests would be the dramatic impact of
releasing 5000 PgC into the atmosphere?

2. Can you draw by hand an approximate temperature versus time schematic over the past 200Myrs (since
the age of the dinosaurs)? Explain roughly the changes on this graph.

3. Why will future climate change be different from natural changes over the past 2 Myr and the PETM
event 55Myrs ago? Why is the present anthropogenic addition “special” in any way? Mention 4 reasons.

4. Where do we come from? Why are we here in the first place? Who are we?
just kidding :)

For your reference, here is a summary of temperature and CO 2 changes:

Glacial-interglacial variations:
CO2 varied from 200ppm to 280ppm
Temperature oscillations of 6-8oC
Sea level changes: 120m (maximum 20m for DO and Heinrich events)

1850 to 2000:
Atmospheric CO2 increase from 280ppm to 380 at present.
Temperature increased by 1oC
Sea level increased by 200mm (20cm)
Present increase in atm carbon from fossil fuel emissions 9 PgC/yr and land use change:0.9 PgC/yr

Projections for the next 100 years:

Atmospheric CO2 will go to 450 - 1100ppm
2o to 6.4oC temp increase

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Sea-level rise of 0.2m to 1m (IPCC models), 4-6m (other research).