JASP Workshop: Linear Regression Exercise

COLLEGE SUCCESS (?)

The Research
"The purpose of the study was to attempt to predict success in the early university years. One
measure of success was the cumulative grade point average (gpa) after three semesters.
Among the explanatory variables recorder at the time the students enrolled in the university
were average high school grades in mathematics (hsm), science (hss), and English (hse). We
will also examine the SAT-Mathematics (satm) and SAT-Verbal (satv) scores as explanatory
variables." (Moore et al. 2012, p. 574).

The Data
The data consist of 224 students, each having three average high-school grades, and two
SAT scores, which we will use as a predictors of the dependent variable, university GPA.

Variable ID Variable information

id type Categorical
description Student indicator
gpa type Continuous
description Average high school grade in mathematics
hsm type Continuous
description Average high school grade in science
hss type Continuous
description Average high school grade in English
hse type Continuous
description Average high school grade in English
satm type Continuous
description Mathematics SAT score
satv type Continuous
description Verbal SAT score
sex type Categorical
description Sex of the student

The Source
D. S. Moore, G. P. McCabe, and B A. Craig (2012). Introduction to the practice of statistics.
New York, Freeman.
The data are from chapter 11 and are available at
http://www.macmillanlearning.com/Catalog/studentresources/ips8e#.

The Exercise
The assignment is to conduct multivariate linear regressions and to compare different models
(and strengths of predictors). You will try to test whether three different average high school
grades predict the university GPA, and also, see whether it is predicted by SAT scores. Most
importantly, the ultimate question we will be whether SAT scores bring any new information
in the academic performance prediction over High-School Grades.

1. Inspect the relevant variables

a) Download the csv file from the OSF and open the data in JASP.

b) Go to Descriptives and produce a table and plots of the GPA, high school grades,
and SAT variables.

c) Use the Add Note functionality to report if and how these results might influence
the analysis?
 2. Frequentist analysis with only High school grades as predictors.
a) Go to Regression select Linear Regression. Add the GAP and high school grade
variables to the model and run the analysis.

b) Check assumptions pertaining to linear regression analysis and interpret the

results. Use the Add Note functionality to report if and how the results of the
assumption checks might influence the results of the analysis.

c) Draw conclusions from the results of the analysis. Report these conclusions in the
JASP output via the Add Note functionality.

3. Frequentist analysis with only SAT scores as predictors.

a) Repeat step 2.a. with SAT variables as predictors instead of high school grade
variables.

b) Check assumptions pertaining to linear regression analysis and interpret the

results. Use the Add Note functionality to report if and how the results of the
assumption checks might influence the results of the analysis.

c) Draw conclusions from the results of the analysis. Report these conclusions in the
JASP output via the Add Note functionality.

4. Frequentist analysis with all predictors

a) Repeat step 2.a. with both high school and SAT variables as predictors.

b) Check assumptions pertaining to linear regression analysis and interpret the

results. Use the Add Note functionality to report if and how the results of the
assumption checks might influence the results of the analysis.

c) Draw conclusions from the results of the analysis. In addition, compare the results
of this model with those of exercise 2. Report these conclusions in the JASP output
via the Add Note functionality.

5. Bayesian analysis with all predictors

a) Go to Regression select Bayesian Linear Regression. Add the GPA, high school
grade, and SAT score variables to the model and run the analysis.

b) Interpret Bayes factors of the models. Use the Add Note functionality to report the
three models with the highest Bayes factor (BF10) and the three models with the
lowest Bayes factor and the conclusion you can draw from their composition of
variables.

c) Tick the Effects box under Output and interpret the inclusion Bayes factors. Use
the Add Note functionality to report which variable(s) is/are supported by the data for
their predictive adequacy of GPA variance.

d) Draw conclusion and compare results of the Bayesian analysis to those of the
frequentist analyses. Use the Add Note functionality to report what can be concluded
from the results and how this information is different from or similar to the information
from acquired from the frequentist analyses. Finally, answer the ultimate question
posed in The Exercise description.

Bonus: repeat exercise 5 with an added interaction effect (hsm*hse).

WHEN YOU ARE DONE. 1) Discuss your results with a neighbor; 2) upload your
annotated .jasp file to the Google Drive.