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Massey and Wallace (2002) - An Optimal Design of The MMCK Queue For Call Centers
Massey and Wallace (2002) - An Optimal Design of The MMCK Queue For Call Centers
1
Acknowledgements
2
Telephone Call Centers
3
Our Research Goal
We have a call center manager who serves a given
customer base. The average calling rate and times
in service are known for these customers. Moreover,
they expect a specific level of service performance.
4
Call Centers with Instant Answering:
The M/M/∞ Queueing Model
1
2 Q∞
2 min(QC/ ∞, C)
∞ 2 1
C ( ) P( DC / 0) P(QC / C ).
This is called the Erlang C-Formula.
8
Applications of the
Erlang C-Formula
• It can be shown that the probability of the
delay exceeding t is
( C ) t
C / ( , , t ) P( DC / t ) C ( )e .
• The mean queue length and delay are
C ( ) C ( )
E[QC / ] and E[ DC / ] .
C (C )
9
How to Compute the
Erlang C-Formula
C C ( )
C ( )
C C ( )
where < C and C is the Erlang B formula,
which solves the recursion relation
C 1 ( )
C ( ) , where 0 ( ) 1.
C C 1 ( )
10
Call Centers with Music and
Busy Signals: The M/M/C/K Queue
1
14
Performance Measures
C/K() = P(QC/K = C+K)
= blocking probability (call center availability).
15
M/M/C/K Steady State Results
C ( ) ( / C ) K (C )
C / K ( ) K
,
C C ( ) (1 ( / C ) )
C ( ) (1 ( / C ) K ) C
C / K ( ) K1
,
C C ( ) (1 ( / C ) )
K i
K1 1 C e C t i
( t )
C / K ( , , t ) C / K ( ) K
,
i 0 1 ( / C) i!
lim C / K ( ) (1 C / )
K
17
Delay and Blocking Monotonicity
Properties for (C,K)
If C1 < C2 and C1 + K1 < C2 + K2 , then
C1 / K1 ( ) C2 / K 2 ( )
so the blocking probability for the first system is larger.
C1 / K1 ( , , t ) C2 / K 2 ( , , t )
and the delay for the first system is larger. 18
Defining a Minimal (C,K) Pair
19
Exact Search Design Algorithm
K
Larger Blocking
Larger Delay
Blocking >
0. Blocking=1 Region 1. First (C,0) Pair with
and Delay=0. Blocking < and Delay = 0.
20
Smaller Blocking
C
Square Root Rule of Thumb
for the M/M/C/K Design Problem
For instant answering (infinite number of agents), the
number of customers in the system has a Poisson
distribution with mean and variance equal to .
23
Blocking Asymptotics
We can show that
lim ρ ρ x ( ) ˆ ( x, y ),
ρ y ρ
where
xy
xe ( x) / ( x)
ˆ ( x, y ) xy
,
x (1 e ) ( x) / ( x)
and setting x =(z) gives us
(z) y
ˆ ( z ) e z
( ( z ), y ) (z) y
.
( z ) (1 e )z 24
Asymptotic Blocking Level Curve
The (x,y) pairs where
ˆ ( x, y )
can be parameterized by
x ( z )
when (z) > 0, and
y
1
log
z ( z )
.
( z) ( z ) z
25
Delay Asymptotics
We can show that
lim ρ x
ρ y ρ ,
ρ ˆ ( x, y, ),
where
(e x e xy ) ( x) / ( x)
ˆ ( x, y, ) xy
,
x (1 e ) ( x) / ( x)
and setting x =(z) gives us
( z ) (z) y
(e e ) z
ˆ ( ( z ), y, ) ( z) y
.
( z ) (1 e )z 26
Asymptotic Optimal
Design Solution
Find x and y such that
ˆ ( x, y ) ρ and ˆ ( x, y, t ρ ) .
Using the blocking level curve, this problem
reduces to solving a fixed point equation for
some z
z
( z ) ρ ( z ) z
.
e ( z ) ρ
(z) t ρ
27
Numerical Design Comparisons
Let 1/ = 10.0 minutes, t = 0.5 minutes, = 0.001 and
= 0.2.
28
Design Performance Comparisons
Let 1/ = 10.0 minutes, t = 0.5 minutes, = 0.001 and
= 0.2.
29
Summary of Numerical Results
• All three methods do a good job in estimating the
number of call agents C.
• The ad-hoc method performs worst in estimating the
number of additional telephone lines K.
• As a result, ad-hoc performs worst in reaching the target
blocking level and can be off by a factor from 2 to 12.
• The asymptotic method gives answers close to the target
blocking and delay levels.
• Given a pre-computed table of values for , the fixed
point iteration for the asymptotic method is the easiest
to compute and requires the least number of steps.
30
M/M/∞ State Space Diagram
( / ) n
P(Q n) P(Q 0) P(Q 0).
2 n n!
31
M/M/C/∞ State Space Diagram
2 C C C
( / ) n
P(QC / 0) if n C ,
n!
P(QC / n) n
( / ) P(Q 0) if n C.
C!C n C C /
32
M/M/C/K State Space Diagram
2 C C C C
( / ) n
P(QC / K 0) if 0 n C ,
n!
P(QC / K n) n
( / ) P(Q 0) if C n C K .
C!C n C C / K
33