Daily Edible oil Analysis Date: Friday, November 22, 2019 Time: 08.

45 AM IST

Market watch

% Volume Open Int

Close Change Open High Low Open Int Curr/Unit
change (In Tons) change
NCDEX Soy
Oil
Dec 803.85 -4.70 -0.58 811.50 811.50 800.70 17920 49240 2130 INR/10Kg
Jan 806.50 -4.45 -0.55 814.90 814.90 803.10 9300 29460 3100 INR/10Kg
Feb INR/10Kg
807.25 -4.55 -0.56 816.00 816.50 807.25 500 510 260

MCX CPO
Nov 654.50 -2.60 -0.40 658.00 661.50 651.20 7440 25490 -490 INR/10Kg
Dec 660.50 -2.40 -0.36 661.20 667.40 657.40 16020 44000 470 INR/10Kg
Jan 660.20 -2.30 -0.35 659.60 665.90 658.10 2470 8240 580 INR/10Kg
Commentary Dec Jan Feb REFIEND SOY OIL IMPORT PARITY
NCDEX Soy Oil Calendar Spreads Particulars Argentina
 Soy oil futures on NCDEX settled lower on 803.85 806.50 807.25 FOB ($/ Ton) of Soy Degum oil (Dec) 703
profit taking tracking weakness in CBO Toy Dec 0 2.65 3.4 Freight + Insurance + Landed weight 58
oil futures and easing Argentina CDSBO FOB Jan -2.65 0 0.75 CIF Value (incl. shortage) 761.00
prices. Feb Custom Duty (INR Import ref rate 72.75)
-3.4 -0.75 0 21315
MCX CPO Calendar Spreads Dollar conversion to INR @ 72.10 76183
 CPO futures on MCX settled lower on profit
taking triggered by weakness in BMD CPO 654.50 660.50 660.20 Landing Charges & All expenses 1000
futures and CBOT soy oil futures. Basis -5 1 0.7 Landed cost at WC Indian / ton 77183
Nov 0 6 5.7 Landed cost at WC India /10 kg 772
 CPO-SOY OIL spread is currently at -149 for
Dec -6 0 -0.3 Refining cost 28
Nov-Dec and -152 for Nov-Jan, while. For
Dec-Dec it is at -143 and for Dec-Jan -146. Jan -5.7 0.3 0 Soy Oil Refined @ Kandla +GST 800
Soy Oil-CPO Spreads (Futures) Freight to Indore 27
 Argentina Soy oil basis surge higher but Refined Soy Oil Soy Oil Refined @ Indore +GST 827
could not fully compensate losses in CPO IMPORT PARITY
CPO Dec Jan Feb
underlying futures. CDSBO FOB offer prices
go down by $7 to $703/MT for Dec loadings. Nov -149 -152 -153
Dec -143 -146 -147 Particulars Indo/Mal
 CPO futures on MCX trading Rs. 17 per 10 Kg Jan -144 -146 -147 C&F Value ($/Ton) of CPO(Dec) 645.00
lower, while, while, Soy oil futures on NCDEX India Import Tariffs on Veg Oils($/MT) 19622
Custom Duty (INR Import ref rate 72.75)
trading Rs. 4 per 10kg higher from landing
prices at Kandla. Rev Date CPO RBD CDSBO Dollar Conversion to INR @ 72.10 66127
15/11/2019 613 661 761 Landing Charges (incl. shortage) 1000
31/10/2019 560 586 743 Landed cost at WC India / ton 67127
15/10/2019 534 566 730 Landed cost at WC India /10 kgs 671

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 Daily Edible oil Analysis Date: Friday, November 22, 2019 Time: 08.45 AM IST

Physical market check (Previous day closing) (in Rs/10Kg, *-USD/Ton)

Soy Oil

CDSBO Soy Oil Solvent Crude Refined Soy oil Del CDSBO Spot HS CDSBO Spot CDSBO CIF
Date CDSBO Brazil FOB*
Argentina Fob* Indore+ Indore+ JNPT HS Kandla West Coast*
21Nov 703(D) 714(J) 765 800 770 756 763(D)
20Nov 710(D) 728(J) 748 788 765 756 768(D)
19Nov 702(D) 722(J) 748 788 765 753 759(D)
18Nov 697(D) 712(J) 748 787 765 750 752(D)

Physical market check (Previous day closing) (in Rs/10Kg, *-USD/Ton)

Palm Oil
CPO Spot C&F CPO Spot HS RBD Olein Spot C&F RBD Olein Spot RBD Olein Spot
Date CPO Spot FOB* RBD Olein Spot FOB*
West Coast* Kandla West Coast * HS Kandla+ HS Mumbai+
21Nov 610.00 645.00(D) 653 670.00(D) 652.50(D) 716 730
20Nov 611.25 645.00(D) 665 675.00(D) 655.00(D) 710 723
19Nov 598.75 635.00(D) 642 660.00(D) 642.50(D) 710 723
18Nov 595.00 630.00(D) 637 655.00(D) 635.00(D) 708 718

Physical market check (Previous day closing) (in Rs/10Kg., *-USD/Ton)

Sun Oil
Sun Oil Russia Sun Oil Ukraine Sun Oil CSFO CIF Sun Oil Exp Ref Crude Sun Oil Sun Oil Exp Sun Oil Ref
Date
FOB* FOB* Argentina FOB* West Coast* Mumbai+ Mumbai+ Mumbai+ Chennai+
21Nov 708(D) 728.0(D) 710(ND) 775.00(D) 830 777 785 840
20Nov 700(D) 720.0(D) 710(ND) 772.50(D) 840 780 785 845
19Nov 695(D) 717.0(D) 710(ND) 760.00(D) 840 765 785 845
18Nov 690(D) 709.0(D) 710(ND) 755.00(D) 840 760 790 845

Soybeans (Indore) INR +128, +$1.8 Rape Mustard Seed (Jaipur) INR -119 -$1.7 INR -36 +$0.5
Net Crush Margins (Previous day) Spot prices Net Crush Margins (Previous day) Expeller Kacchi Ghani
(A)Bean For Plant/ ton 39200 (A)Mustard Seed For plant/ton 44900 44900
(B) Crush cost/ton 1200 (B)Crushing Charges/ton 850 1100
(C) Total cost to crusher/ton (A+B) 40400 (C) Lab Tolerance @ 1% of A 449 449
(D) Refined oil Excluding GST/10kgs 800 (D)Discount @ 1% of (A) 449 449
(E) Refining expenses/10kgs 29 (E) Cost/ton (A+B-C-D) 44852 45102
(F) Solvent Oil/10kgs 771 (F) Mustard oil/10kgs 854 863
(G) Oil share @18% /ton (18% of F) 13878 (G) Oil Realization/ton 37% of F 31598 31931
(H) DOC-Ex Indore/ton 32500 (H) Oil Cake/ton 20850 20850
(I) DOC-Ex Kandla/ton 33800 (I) Meal Realization/ton 63% of H 13135.5 13135.5
(J) Meal Share @ 82% /ton (82% of H) 26650 (J)Total Realization/ton (G+I) 44733.5 45066.5
(K) Net Realization/ton (G+J) 40528 (K) Net Crush Margins/ton (J-E) -118.5 -35.5
(L) Net Crush Margins/ton (K-C) 128 (L)Net Crush Margins/ton ($)with INR@71.7 -1.65 -0.50
(M) Net Crush Margins/ton ($) with INR@71.7 1.79

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 Daily Edible oil Analysis Date: Friday, November 22, 2019 Time: 08.45 AM IST

International Futures
CBOT Soy Oil Close Chg Open High Low Volume
Dec 30.69 -0.51 31.20 31.25 30.57 58458
Jan 30.88 -0.53 31.41 31.45 30.75 78680
Mar 31.16 -0.53 31.71 31.71 31.03 27839
E-CBOT Soy oil LTP Chg %Chg Open High Low
Dec 30.71 0.02 0.07 30.69 30.73 30.64
Jan 30.88 0.00 0.00 30.88 30.91 30.82
Mar 31.13 -0.03 -0.10 31.13 31.18 31.10
BMD CPO LTP Chg %Chg Open High Low
Dec 2558 -14 -0.54 2558 2558 2558
Jan 2626 3 0.11 2608 2633 2607
Feb 2666 -1 -0.04 2650 2678 2650
Mar 2686 -2 -0.07 2670 2696 2670

DCE Soy oil LTP Chg %Chg Open High Low

Jan 2020 6336 -54 -0.85 6338 6384 6304
May 2020 6336 -62 -0.97 6368 6402 6304
DCE RBD Olein LTP Chg %Chg Open High Low
Jan 2020 5556 -42 -0.75 5544 5580 5516
May 2020 5776 -42 -0.72 5780 5806 5740

CBOT Soy Oil Calendar Spread

Month Dec Jan Mar May
Spot Basis (Illinois) 31.19 30.71 30.89 31.13 31.48
-0.48 -0.3 -0.06 0.29
Dec 0 0.18 0.42 0.77
Jan -0.18 0 0.24 0.59
Mar -0.42 -0.24 0 0.35
May -0.77 -0.59 -0.35 0
BMD CPO Calendar spreads
Month Dec Jan Feb Mar
Spot Malaysia CPO MYR 2610 2558 2626 2667 2686
Basis -52 16 57 76
Dec 0 68 109 128
Jan -68 0 41 60
Feb -109 -41 0 19
Mar -128 -60 -19 0

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Daily Edible oil Analysis Date: Friday, November 22, 2019 Time: 08.45 AM IST

Commodity Pairs Spreads Gas Oil & Bio-diesel LTP

CPO-SOY -37 ICE EU Low Sulphur Gas Oil ($/MT) 584
PALM OIL-GAS OIL(POGO) +56 PME South East Asia($/MT) 725
BEAN OIL-GAS OIL(BOGO) +93 SME Argentina FOB ($/MT) 760

Imported Veg Oil Spreads (Dec Shipments) At Indian Ports (21 Nov 2019)
CPO RBD SUN SOY CANOLA
BASIS
645 670 775 763 795
CPO(CNF)
0 -25 -130 -118 -150
RBD(CNF)
25 0 -105 -93 -125
SUN(CIF)
130 105 0 12 -20
SOY(CNF)
118 93 -12 0 -32
CANOLA(CNF)
150 125 20 32 0

Veg Oil Market Related Currencies and Index

Currency Last Change Currency Last Change Index Last Change
Argentine Peso Indian Rupee US Dollar
59.73 -0.06 71.74 -0.003 Index 97.951 -0.042
Brazilian Real Indonesia Rupiah CRB Index
4.193 -0.0025 14095 15 180.7277 1.7637
British Pound Malaysia Ringgit GOLD 1464.65 1.05
1.2914 0.0001 4.166 -0.002
Canadian Dollar Philippine Piso SILVER 17.047 -0.018
1.3277 -0.0008 50.78 -0.04
Chinese Yuan Russia Rouble Brent Crude 63.59 -0.38
7.0304 0.0019 63.694 -0.001 Oil
Euro Ukraine Hryvinia WTI Crude 58.19 -0.39
1.1061 0.0004 24.16 0.02 Oil

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Daily Edible oil Analysis Date: Friday, November 22, 2019 Time: 08.45 AM IST

Weather & Impact on Oil crops

(Source: Refinitiv Eikon)
 ARGENTINA/PARAGUAY 10-DAY: A strong frontal passage in the next several days will be the key feature of the Argentina/Paraguay 10-day
forecast. The front will hit the major crop regions of Argentina around Buenos Aires first, dropping temperatures down to 1-3 °C below normal
already averaged across the next 5 days. Meanwhile, northern Argentina and Paraguay will hang on to warmth 1-2 °C above normal during the
same period. The cold front will have swept across the entire region by the 6-10 day outlook, with temperatures 3-5 °C cooler than normal over
Argentina/Paraguay. The powerful cold front will bring near to above normal rainfall through 28-November across nearly all of
Argentina/Paraguay. The heaviest totals will hit Argentina in a fairly widespread manner, with surpluses of 30-60 mm (1.2-2.4 in). There will be
pockets of near to slightly drier than normal conditions around Buenos Aires and western Paraguay, but all regions will receive either modest or
heavy rainfall. The rainfall distribution is perfect for making a positive impact on all crops, as Argentina high rainfall benefits wheat while more
modest totals in Paraguay will facilitate corn/soybean plantings.
 BRAZIL 10-DAY: A divided weather pattern will prevail across most of Brazil through 10 days, as it will not miss out on regional impacts from a
cold front passing through. Northeast Brazil will be the only area with persistent warmth, featuring temperatures 2-4 °C above normal through
10 days. South Brazil will be 1-2 °C warmer than normal through 5 days, while Central-West and Southeast Brazil will be near normal. During
the 6-10 day outlook, South Brazil will flip to temperatures 1-3 °C cooler than normal while Central-West and Southeast Brazil will remain near
normal along the frontal boundary. Rainfall totals through 28-November will be near to above normal in most areas of Brazil, with surpluses as
high as 50 mm (~2 in) in some localized areas. This widespread uptick in rainfall is mostly due to the advancing cold front in the forecast, which
will create precipitation everywhere in its vicinity. Pockets of slight dryness could remain in Mato Grosso and Bahia, but even those regions will
receive some rains. Though cool/wet weather could slow corn/soybean planting progress in Brazil temporarily, the soil moisture boost will be
well received and supports upside for the crops.
International News & Events
 CBOT soybean futures fell to their lowest level in almost two months on Thursday as uncertainty about progress in U.S-China trade talks
overshadowed support from stronger-than-expected weekly U.S. export sales.
 CBOT Soybean oil futures settled sharply lower and funds started to book profits amid weakness in soybean futures and easing palm oil prices
from higher range. Soy oil basis in Argentina and Brazil remained firm but CDSBO FOB prices goes down due to sharply lower underlying futures.
 According to CFTC report, On CBOT Thursday, funds were net sellers in Soybean (-7,500), Soy Oil (-7,000), and net buyers in Soy Meal (+3,000).
 US Weekly sales and exports: Soybeans: Net sales of 1,516,700 MT, up 22% from the previous week and 39% from the prior 4-week average,
Exports 1,707,400 MT, up 35% from the previous week and 18% from the prior 4-week average, Soymeal: Net sales 196,400 MT, down 43%
from the previous week and 12% from the prior 4-week average. Exports 159,900 MT. Soy Oil: Net sales 39,100 MT and exports 2,400 MT.
 USDA said, China agreed to buy 568,573 MT of US soybeans in the week ended Nov. 14, down from 760,527 MT a week earlier. US soybean
shipments headed to China during the week rose to 873,573 MT from 693,527 MT.
 Basis bids for corn shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf Coast were mostly flat on Thursday, underpinned by moderate demand for export-grade
grain but capped by sluggish export demand. Spot basis offers for U.S. soymeal held steady at most processors in the rail and truck markets.
 As per Bolsa De Cereales, by Nov 20, Argentina 2019/20 soybean planting 46.8% completed in compare to 29.6% last week, 43% last year and
45% 5-year average. While, Sunflower planting 88.5% completed in compare to 78.1% last week, 91.6% last year and 83.2% 5-year average.
 Argentina govt estimated 2019/20 soy planting area at 17.7 mln Ha (43.7 mln Acr), up slightly from its previous 17.6 mln Ha forecast.
 ICE canola futures dipped on Thursday, ending a five-day winning streak, pressured by a broader fall in global veg oil futures.
 SPPOMA South Malaysian palm oil Nov 1-20 v/s Oct 1-20: Production: -11.55%, Yields: -14.02%, OER: +0.47%.
 Growth in palm oil production will slow in the next few years, helping reduce stockpiles and boost prices, James Fry from LMC Intl said.
 Crude oil prices were toppled from their highest in nearly two months on Friday by doubts over future demand for crude as uncertainty
continues to shroud a potential U.S.-China trade deal, and along with it the health of the global economy.

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Daily Edible oil Analysis Date: Friday, November 22, 2019 Time: 08.45 AM IST

Sunvin Market Outlook

Market Commentary
Tracking weakness in CBOT soy oil futures overnight and DCE RBD palm olein futures in Asian hours, BMD CPO futures open gap lower in continuation
of the downside correction triggered Thursday. However, prices seen bouncing back from key technical support level (For details, see page number 7)
and moving sideways amidst lack of fresh bullish support. On production front Malaysia Nov palm oil production is said to be -5-7%, while export is
likely to be 4-5% up. If it realized, Nov end stocks would be seen going lower. Indonesia PTP tender traded further higher by $3 per MT Thursday, while,
APEX CPO futures continued to stay at premium over BMD CPO futures indication a supply issue at Indonesian side. On destination front, China looking
to buy more veg oils ahead of Luna new year holidays but the weakness in DCE RBD palm olein futures may not give a profitable hedging opportunity
now and market would wait for a further upside resumption in the futures. Further, China has seen buying Old and new Brazilian soybean crop as Us-
China trade agreement is unlikely to happen anytime soon. The resumption of South American soybean buying could pressure the veg oil import as
China’s oilseed crush margins have improved recently due to high oil share. In India, buyers are mostly absent in palm oil as the net payable import
duties are again pushed higher after Indian govt revised the fortnightly import tariffs and USDINR ref rate for import at higher side. The RBD palm olein
discount over soybean oil and Sunflower oil has converged significantly, while, negative import margins continued to caution the buyers from taking
larger interest in palm oil. On biodiesel front, the unfavorable POGO spread for a longer period of time has started to show the effects now and palm oil
may find difficult to continue to hold the bullish momentum without remain attractive for discretionary blending. In external markets, Soy oil futures on
CBOT drops sharply lower Thursday and hence CDSBO FOB prices at South American origins also came down despite the basis remained firm. At Black
sea markets, sun oil prices continue to find buying support as the premium oil being offered at attractive spread over the competition. However, the
larger export availability at Ukraine and Russia is continued to cap the recovery in sun oil prices. Rapeseed oil prices at European markets seen
correcting lower as Canola futures on ICE and Rapeseed futures on Euronext exchange closed lower. Next key data to watch: MPOA Malaysia Nov 1-20
Palm oil production, Malaysia Nov 1-25 palm oil exports and SPPOMA Nov 1-25 South Malaysian palm oil production. Happy Weekend.

Technical Commentary

BMD CPO FEB (MYR/MT): After resisting at upper Bollinger Band, prices have corrected up to the rising trend line support. A bounce back from 2650
levels is being witnessed so far. It seems a distribution pattern is taking place in daily chart and it would take some time before heading lower for a
more intense retracement of the entire rise from 2140 – 2709. Resistance is at 2685 – 2700. Support is at 2650 – 2637.

CBOT Soy Oil DEC (Cents/lb): In line with our expectations, prices corrected lower up to 30.57 so far. Now resistance is at 30.94 – 31.10 and support is
at 30.45 – 30.25. A volatile price movement in 30.25 – 31.10 is likely scenario for some time.

APEX CPO FEB (USD/MT): The trend is up and high registered of $663.25 so far. Price is correcting lower now and trend line support is at $649. A
correction towards $649-647 area is likely to be seen before market again attempts to continue the bullish trend and break the high of $663.25 and
try to test the upper Bollinger Band at $671.

DCE RBD Palm Olein JAN (CNY/MT): The trend is up but anticipated profit taking is being witnessed. Key support of 5566 has broken and it could be the
first warning that a correction of the entire rise is started to unfold. Now as long as high of 5644 is intact, expect lower levels of 5460 – 5370 to be
tested coming sessions.

USDINR: Resistance is at 72 and support is at 71.50. Either side break of these levels would indicate the future course of prices act ion.

CPO MCX NOV: The trend still remains up. Support is at 650 – 645 and resistance is at 658 – 662. Expect a dual side momentum for the time-being.

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 Daily Edible oil Analysis Date: Friday, November 22, 2019 Time: 08.45 AM IST

SOY OIL NCDEX DEC: Resistance is at 813 and key support is at 797. Expect a range-bound momentum in 797-813 area for some time now.

SOYBEAN NCDEX DEC: The trend is up. High registered of 4065 after a mini breakout above 4003 but market could not close above it. Another
attempt to move higher is likely to be seen. Expect higher range of 4060 – 4095 in coming sessions. Support is at 3958 – 3930.
Laughter Cartoons & Disclaimer

Analysis by
Anilkumar Bagani
Research Head – Sunvin Group

With invaluable insights by

Mr. Sandeep Bajoria
CEO - Sunvin Group

Disclaimer: This Document has been prepared by Sunvin Research (A Division of Sunvin Group). The information, analysis and estimates
contained herein are based on Sunvin Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document
is meant for the use of the intended recipient only. This document, at best, represents Sunvin Research opinion and is meant for general
information only. Sunvin Research, its directors, officers or employees shall not in any way be responsible for the contents stated herein.
Sunvin Research expressly disclaims any and all liabilities that may arise from information, errors or omissions in this connection. This
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employees may from time to time hold positions in securities referred to herein. Sunvin Research or its affiliates may from time to time solicit
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