CJC Mathematics & Sciencesational Week 2013

NAME: ______________________________________________________ CLASS: ________________

HP: _______________________

Synopsis
In the 3rd episode, Vector of the American television series, Numb3rs (Season 1), a deadly strain of influenza
is spreading through Los Angeles. Don, an FBI agent, investigates whether the strain was released
deliberately, and his genius brother, Charlie, who is an applied mathematician and a professor at a local
university, tries to calculate the origin and likely spread of the virus.

Objective
In this activity, we are going to make use of the Logistic Growth Model for the spread of a virus. This may
be used in medicine to model the growth of tumours; in chemistry to model reactions; in physics to model
Fermi distribution; in linguistics to model language change; and in economics, to model the progress of
diffusion of an innovation through its life cycle.

A Simple Starter Activity

Let t be the time and I be the number of infected individuals in the area concerned, at time t.
Also, let N be the total population of the area concerned.

Follow the steps below and input these data into your GC:
Time, t 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Number
1 4 9 15 22 25 26
infected, I

Press Screen Display Remarks

1. We want to observe how the
number of infected individuals,
Enter data for t in L1 and data I, vary with the time, t.
for I in L2.

2. This is to obtain a Scatter

Diagram for the data points.
Press to select You will learn more about this
Plot1. at a later topic, Correlation and
Linear Regression.

3. When Plot 1 is highlighted, we

can turn on statistical graph
plotting by selecting ON.

For graph type, select the first

icon (scatter plot).

Set Xlist as L1 (x-axis) and Ylist

as L2 (y-axis).
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 CJC Mathematics & Sciencesational Week 2013

4. To view the Scatter Diagram,

select 9: ZoomStat.

The GC will fit all data points

into the window.

Draw a sketch of what you have observed from the GC, indicating your axes clearly:
I

This is a simple example of a Scatter Diagram obtained using the Logistic Growth Model.

Describe the rate of spread of the virus with respect to time.

As time, t increases, the number infected, I also increases. Initially, the rate of spread of virus is slow. Then
the rate increases until it reaches a peak value, and subsequently, the rate decreases. It seems that the points
would tend towards a horizontal line as time increases further.

More About the Logistic Growth Model

In this Logistic Growth Model, several assumptions were made:
The total population, N is a constant with time.
The total population behaves such that everyone has an equal chance of encountering anyone else in
a given time span.
If an infected person meets an uninfected person, then the uninfected person becomes infected.
The rate of growth of the infected population is proportional to the number of infected and number
dI
of non-infected contacts expected in a given time span. In other words, at any time t, is
dt
proportional to the product of the number of infected individuals and the number of uninfected
individuals.

Hence, we have the following Differential Equation for the Logistic Growth Model:
dI
= kI (N − I ), (*)
dt
where k (a proportionality constant) and N (the total population) are constants.

This makes sense because if the number of infected individuals is small and the number of uninfected
individuals is also small, then the disease spreads slowly; if the number of infected individuals is large and
the number of uninfected individuals is also large, then the disease spreads quickly, since this facilitates
contact between the infected and uninfected.

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 CJC Mathematics & Sciencesational Week 2013

Show that the solution of the above Differential Equation (*) is given by
N
I= , where b is a constant.
1 + be − kNt
(Hint: from (*), use the idea of variables separable and apply partial fractions before integrating.)

dI
= kI (N − I ) ⇒ I = Nae kNt − Iae kNt
dt
1 dI
⇒ =k ⇒ I + Iae kNt = Nae kNt
I ( N − I ) dt
1 1 1  Nae kNt
⇒ ∫
 +
N I N −I ∫
 dI = k dt ⇒I =
1 + ae kNt
1 N
⇒ (ln I − ln( N − I ) ) = kt + c ⇒I =
N 1
1 + e − kNt
a
 I  N 1
⇒ ln  = kNt + Nc ∴I= − kNt
, where b =
N−I 1 + be a
I
⇒ = e kNt + Nc = ae kNt , where a = e Nc
N−I

A graph of I against t is sketched as follows:

I
?

?
t
O
State the initial number of infected individuals (i.e., when t = 0) in terms of N and b.
N
When t = 0, I = .
1+ b

Eventually (i.e., as t → ∞ ), what would be the number of people infected, in terms of N?

N.

Remark
Do note that this is only a simplified model for the spread of a virus. For more realistic models to predict the
spread of a virus, we may need to involve more complicated models with more variables, such as the SIR
model, which involves S, the number susceptible to the disease (and not infected yet), I, the number infected
and capable to spread the disease to those susceptible and R, the number who have been infected and then
recovered.