03-13.

QXD 11/14/2001 11:31 AM Page 354

3–354 Hazard Calculations

28
Coats not used 26 T = 0.70 + 0.013p
10 Coats used 24 T = 2.00 + 0.017p
Total evacuation time (min)

22 Melinek & Booth (1975)

11 and 21 stories

Total evacuation time (min)

20
Galbreath (1969)
18 11 stories

16
Observed times
5 14 in Canadian
Prediction equations: evacuations
12
t = 0.68 + 0.081p 0.73
10
t = 2.00 + 0.0117p 8
6
0 4
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
2
Evacuation population
(persons per meter of effective stair width) 0
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Evacuation population
Figure 3-13.8. Predicted and observed total evacuation
(persons per meter of effective stair width)
times for tall office buildings.
Figure 3-13.9. Predicted and observed total evacuation
times for tall office buildings incorporating results from
equations apply to cases where there are no more than 800 other investigators.
persons/m of effective stair width. (The upper equation
in Figure 3-13.8 is Equation 7, and the lower one is Equa-
tion 8.) Note that there is a good match between the pre-
diction curve (Equation 7) and the observed total Booth16 and Galbreath,15 plus a cross-hatched area show-
evacuation times for the uncontrolled evacuations, espe- ing where observed times lie.
cially in those cases where extra outdoor clothing was not Another indication of the accuracy of these prediction
used. Using Equation 7, the net error in predicting total equations for uncontrolled total evacuations of office
evacuation times for 50 cases in buildings 8 to 15 stories buildings is provided in Figure 3-13.10. This compares pre-
high was 0.2 percent. The simplified linear equation, dicted and observed evacuation times for approximately
Equation 8, also fits these data very well. 1700 people evacuating an 8-story, 6-exit Canadian office
building in March 1983 (in cold-weather conditions), as
T C 0.68 = 0.081p0.73 (7) documented by Public Works Canada.

T C 2.00 = 0.0117p (8)

where T is the minimum time, in minutes, to complete an

uncontrolled total evacuation by stairs, and p is the actual
evacuation population per meter of effective stair width, 9 Stairwell e
identification um nc
measured just above the discharge level of the exit. (Note the im e
pt ond
8 O p
upper limit of 800 persons per meter of effective stair s
Observed evacuation time (min)

4 rre
width.) This also applies to Equation 4. 7 2
Co
Buildings that will be less accurately predicted with 3
Equations 7 and 8 are the taller ones with very low popu- 6 5
lations on each floor. With such buildings, the total evac-
uation time is influenced by the travel distance and 5 6
people’s ability to descend stairs quickly, that is, at about
10 s/story, rather than the 15 to 20 s observed in evacua- 4
tions with higher populations. The observed times de- 3
parting most from the prediction lines in Figure 3-13.8
1
were for buildings with 18 to 20 stories. 2
For buildings with more than 800 persons per meter
of effective stair width, Equation 9 provides a good basis 1
for predicting times for uncontrolled total evacuations in
0
tall office buildings. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Predicted evacuation time (min)
T C 0.70 = 0.0133p (9) (using observed population figures)

Figure 3-13.9 shows Equations 8 and 9, along with predic- Figure 3-13.10. Comparison of predicted and observed
tion lines based on equations proposed by Melinek and evacuation times for an office building.