"Adams Model" Pandemic Projection Model, Revision 2 (simplified)

Originally created February 27, 2020, Revision 2 (simplified) modified March 9, 2020
by Mike Adams, lab science director, CWClabs.com, author, "Food Forensics," publisher, Pandemic.news

If you use this pandemic projection model, please give credit to Mike Adams and link to Pandemic.news.
You may encourage others to download this spreadsheet at:
Pandemic.news/PPM-Adams-Rev-2.zip
Please submit any errors or suggestions via NaturalNews.com

Current (default) values: (you can change these below)

Starting infections on day one is 100 (you can change this, below)
A newly infected person begins being infectious to others the following day and remains infectious for 14 days
Default R0 = 2.4, spread out across 14 days (you can change values below for dynamic recalculation)
2% mortality rate, 98% cure rate (you can change values below)
After 14 days, people stop being infectious (are either cured or dead)
A default social distancing suppression factor of 25%

CHANGE THESE VALUES FOR DYNAMIC RECALCULATION:

R0 value: 2.4
Infectiousnesss days: 14 (if you change this number, you must alter cell referen
# infected to start: 100
Mortality rate: 2%
Social distancing suppression: 25 % (this suppresses new infections each day by this percen

Actively Newly Reached

Infectious Infected 14 days Died Died Recovered
Day Today Today Today Today Total Today
1 100 12.9
2 113 14.5
3 127 16.4
4 144 18.5
5 162 20.9
6 183 23.5
7 207 26.6
8 233 30.0
9 263 33.8
10 297 38.2
11 335 43.1
12 378 48.6
13 427 54.9
14 482 61.9
15 544 69.9 100.0 2.0 2.0 98.0
16 514 66.0 12.9 0.3 2.3 12.6
17 567 72.9 14.5 0.3 2.5 14.2
18 625 80.4 16.4 0.3 2.9 16.0
19 689 89 18.5 0.4 3.2 18.1
20 759 98 20.9 0.4 3.7 20.4
21 836 108 23.5 0.5 4.1 23.1
22 920 118 26.6 0.5 4.7 26.0
23 1012 130 30.0 0.6 5.3 29.4
24 1112 143 33.8 0.7 5.9 33.2
 25 1221 157 38.2 0.8 6.7 37.4
26 1340 172 43.1 0.9 7.6 42.2
27 1469 189 48.6 1.0 8.5 47.7
28 1609 207 54.9 1.1 9.6 53.8
Estimated 29 1761 226 61.9 1.2 11 60.7
Calendar 30 1926 248 69.9 1.4 12 68.5
Day if 31 2104 270 66.0 1.3 14 64.7
Using 32 2308 297 72.9 1.5 15 71.4
Default 33 2532 326 80.4 1.6 17 78.8
Values: 34 2777 357 89 1.8 18 87
35 3045 392 98 2.0 20 96
9-Mar 36 3339 429 108 2.2 23 105
10-Mar 37 3661 471 118 2.4 25 116
11-Mar 38 4014 516 130 2.6 28 127
12-Mar 39 4400 566 143 2.9 30 140
13-Mar 40 4822 620 157 3.1 34 154
14-Mar 41 5285 680 172 3.4 37 169
15-Mar 42 5792 745 189 3.8 41 185
16-Mar 43 6348 816 207 4.1 45 203
17-Mar 44 6958 895 226 4.5 49 222
18-Mar 45 7626 980 248 5.0 54 243
19-Mar 46 8359 1075 270 5.4 60 265
20-Mar 47 9163 1178 297 5.9 66 291
21-Mar 48 10044 1291 326 6.5 72 319
22-Mar 49 11010 1416 357 7.1 79 350
23-Mar 50 12068 1552 392 7.8 87 384
24-Mar 51 13229 1701 429 8.6 96 421
25-Mar 52 14500 1864 471 9 105 461
26-Mar 53 15894 2043 516 10 115 506
27-Mar 54 17421 2240 566 11 127 554
28-Mar 55 19095 2455 620 12 139 608
29-Mar 56 20930 2691 680 14 153 666
30-Mar 57 22942 2950 745 15 168 730
31-Mar 58 25147 3233 816 16 184 800
1-Apr 59 27564 3544 895 18 202 877
2-Apr 60 30213 3885 980 20 222 961
3-Apr 61 33117 4258 1075 21 243 1053
4-Apr 62 36300 4667 1178 24 267 1155
5-Apr 63 39790 5116 1291 26 292 1266
6-Apr 64 43614 5608 1416 28 321 1387
7-Apr 65 47806 6146 1552 31 352 1521
8-Apr 66 52401 6737 1701 34 386 1667
9-Apr 67 57437 7385 1864 37 423 1827
10-Apr 68 62958 8095 2043 41 464 2003
11-Apr 69 69009 8873 2240 45 509 2195
12-Apr 70 75642 9725 2455 49 558 2406
13-Apr 71 82912 10660 2691 54 612 2637
14-Apr 72 90881 11685 2950 59 671 2891
15-Apr 73 99616 12808 3233 65 735 3169
16-Apr 74 109190 14039 3544 71 806 3473
17-Apr 75 119685 15388 3885 78 884 3807
18-Apr 76 131189 16867 4258 85 969 4173
19-Apr 77 143798 18488 4667 93 1062 4574
 20-Apr 78 157619 20265 5116 102 1165 5013
21-Apr 79 172769 22213 5608 112 1277 5495
22-Apr 80 189374 24348 6146 123 1400 6024
23-Apr 81 207576 26688 6737 135 1535 6603
24-Apr 82 227527 29253 7385 148 1682 7237
25-Apr 83 249396 32065 8095 162 1844 7933
26-Apr 84 273366 35147 8873 177 2022 8695
27-Apr 85 299641 38525 9725 195 2216 9531
28-Apr 86 328441 42228 10660 213 2429 10447
29-Apr 87 360009 46287 11685 234 2663 11451
30-Apr 88 394611 50736 12808 256 2919 12552
1-May 89 432539 55612 14039 281 3200 13758
2-May 90 474112 60957 15388 308 3508 15080
3-May 91 519682 66816 16867 337 3845 16530
4-May 92 569631 73238 18488 370 4215 18119
5-May 93 624381 80278 20265 405 4620 19860
6-May 94 684393 87993 22213 444 5064 21769
7-May 95 750173 96451 24348 487 5551 23861
8-May 96 822276 105721 26688 534 6085 26155
9-May 97 901309 115883 29253 585 6670 28668
10-May 98 987938 127021 32065 641 7311 31424
11-May 99 1082893 139229 35147 703 8014 34444
12-May 100 1186975 152611 38525 771 8785 37755
13-May 101 1301061 167279 42228 845 9629 41384
14-May 102 1426112 183357 46287 926 10555 45361
15-May 103 1563182 200981 50736 1015 11570 49721
16-May 104 1713427 220298 55612 1112 12682 54500
17-May 105 1878113 241472 60957 1219 13901 59738
18-May 106 2058627 264681 66816 1336 15238 65480
19-May 107 2256491 290120 73238 1465 16702 71773
20-May 108 2473373 318005 80278 1606 18308 78672
21-May 109 2711101 348570 87993 1760 20068 86233
22-May 110 2971678 382073 96451 1929 21997 94522
23-May 111 3257300 418796 105721 2114 24111 103607
24-May 112 3570374 459048 115883 2318 26429 113565
25-May 113 3913540 503169 127021 2540 28969 124480
26-May 114 4289689 551531 139229 2785 31754 136445
27-May 115 4701991 604542 152611 3052 34806 149559
28-May 116 5153922 662647 167279 3346 38152 163934
29-May 117 5649290 726337 183357 3667 41819 179690
30-May 118 6192270 796149 200981 4020 45838 196961
31-May 119 6787438 872671 220298 4406 50244 215892
1-Jun 120 7439811 956547 241472 4829 55074 236642
2-Jun 121 8154887 1048485 264681 5294 60367 259387
3-Jun 122 8938692 1149260 290120 5802 66170 284318
4-Jun 123 9797832 1259721 318005 6360 72530 311645
5-Jun 124 10739548 1380799 348570 6971 79501 341599
6-Jun 125 11771777 1513514 382073 7641 87143 374431
7-Jun 126 12903218 1658985 418796 8376 95519 410420
8-Jun 127 14143407 1818438 459048 9181 104700 449867
9-Jun 128 15502797 1993217 503169 10063 114763 493106
10-Jun 129 16992844 2184794 551531 11031 125794 540501
11-Jun 130 18626107 2394785 604542 12091 137885 592451
12-Jun 131 20416351 2624959 662647 13253 151137 649394
13-Jun 132 22378663 2877257 726337 14527 165664 711811
14-Jun 133 24529582 3153803 796149 15923 181587 780226
15-Jun 134 26887237 3456930 872671 17453 199041 855217
16-Jun 135 29471497 3789192 956547 19131 218172 937416
17-Jun 136 32304142 4153390 1048485 20970 239141 1027516
18-Jun 137 35409046 4552592 1149260 22985 262126 1126275
19-Jun 138 38812378 4990163 1259721 25194 287321 1234527
20-Jun 139 42542819 5469791 1380799 27616 314937 1353183
21-Jun 140 46631811 5995519 1513514 30270 345207 1483244
22-Jun 141 51113816 6571776 1658985 33180 378387 1625805
23-Jun 142 56026607 7203421 1818438 36369 414756 1782069
24-Jun 143 61411590 7895776 1993217 39864 454620 1953352
25-Jun 144 67314149 8654676 2184794 43696 498316 2141098
26-Jun 145 73784031 9486518 2394785 47896 546212 2346890
27-Jun 146 80875764 10398312 2624959 52499 598711 2572460
28-Jun 147 88649117 11397744 2877257 57545 656256 2819712
29-Jun 148 97169604 12493235 3153803 63076 719332 3090727
30-Jun 149 106509035 13694019 3456930 69139 788471 3387792
1-Jul 150 116746124 15010216 3789192 75784 864254 3713409
2-Jul 151 127967147 16452919 4153390 83068 947322 4070322
3-Jul 152 140266676 18034287 4552592 91052 1038374 4461540
4-Jul 153 153748371 19767648 4990163 99803 1138177 4890360
(add additional rows if you want to see where this goes for the rest of 2020)

Remember that the entire population of the United States is 327 million.
Projections which go beyond that number of infected are purely theoretical.

Stay informed. Read Pandemic.news

blisher, Pandemic.news

ink to Pandemic.news.

emains infectious for 14 days

amic recalculation)

r, you must alter cell references in column E, below)

ctions each day by this percentage due to social distancing measures)

Recovered
Total

NOTES:
On day 15, all 100 of the original starting 100 have reached their 14-day milestone, at which point 2% die and 98%
On day 16, the 14 days are now over for the 13 people who were originally infected on day 1 and spend 14 days in
To change the 14-day infectiousness window here, you must alter cell references in column E

111
27
30
34
39
44
49
55
63
 71
80
90
101
115
129
133
136
150
166
183
201
221
243
268
294
323
354
388
425
465
508
556
610
669
734
804
882
967
1060
1162
1274
1396
1530
1677
1838
2014
2208
2420
2653
2908
3187
3494
3830
4198
4601
5043
5528
6059
6642
7280
7980
8747
 9587
10509
11519
12626
13840
15170
16628
18226
19978
21898
24003
26310
28838
31610
34648
37979
41629
45630
50016
54823
60092
65868
72199
79138
86745
95082
104221
114238
125218
137253
150445
164905
180755
198129
217172
238045
260925
286003
313492
343624
376651
412853
452534
496029
543705
595963
653244
716030
784851
860287
942973
1033607
1132952
1241845
1361205
1492037
1635443
1792633
1964932
2153791
2360802
2587710
2836427
3109049
3407875
3735422
4094451
4487988
4919350
5392172
5910439
6478519
7101200
7783730
8531862
9351899
hich point 2% die and 98% are cured.
day 1 and spend 14 days in "infectious" status.