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Transportation Research Procedia 36 (2018) 841–847

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Thirteenth International Conference on Organization and Traffic Safety Management in

Large Cities
Thirteenth International Conference (SPbOTSIC 2018)
on Organization and Traffic Safety Management in
Large Cities (SPbOTSIC 2018)
Scientific and methodological approaches to the development of a
Scientific and methodological
feasibility approaches
study for intelligent to the development
transportation systems of a
feasibility study for intelligent transportation systems
Sultan Zhankaziev, Maxim Gavrilyuk
Gavrilyuk, Dmitriy Morozov*, Aleksey Zabudsky
Sultan Zhankaziev, Maxim Gavrilyuk
Gavrilyuk, Dmitriy Morozov*, Aleksey Zabudsky
Moscow Automobile and Road Construction State Technical University (MADI), 64 Leningradsk
Leningradskiy Prosp., Moscow,125319, Russia
Moscow Automobile and Road Construction State Technical University (MADI), 64 Leningradsk
Leningradskiy Prosp., Moscow,125319, Russia

Abstract
Abstract
The article addresses the role of the feasibility study in the life cycle of an ITS (intelligent transportation systems) proj project.
ect. The
feasibility
The articlestudy of anthe
addresses ITSrole
project is an
of the integral study
feasibility part ofinproject
the lifevalidation,
cycle of anwhich is conductedtransportation
ITS (intelligent according to systems)
methods proj
described
project. in
ect. The
this article.study
feasibility Despite theITS
of an importance
project isofantheintegral
feasibility
partstudy, works
of project dedicatedwhich
validation, to theisformalization of the requirements
conducted according to methodstodescribed
su
such
ch study
in
are
this just beginning
article. Despitetotheappear in theoftechnical
importance and legal
the feasibility study,regulatory framework.
works dedicated The
to the methods considered
formalization in this article
of the requirements to suform
such the
ch study
basis forbeginning
are just a preliminary national
to appear in standard.
the technical and legal regulatory framework. The methods considered in this article form the
basis for a preliminary national standard.
©2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
© 2018
This The Authors.
is an Published by Elsevier B.V. ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
©2018 Theopen
This is an open
accessPublished
Authors. article under the CC BY-NC-ND
by Elsevier
access article under B.V.
the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
This review
Peer-review
is an openunder responsibility
access article underof theCC scientific committee of the Thirteenth International Conference on Organization and
Peer-review under responsibility ofthe BY-NC-ND
the scientific ND licenseof
committee (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
the Thirteenth International Conference on Organization and
Traffic
Traffic Safety
review
Safetyunder
Peer-review Management in
in Large
responsibility
Management of Cities
Large the
Cities (SPbOTSIC
scientific 2018)
2018).
committee
(SPbOTSIC 2018).of the Thirteenth International Conference on Organization and
Traffic Safety Management in Large Cities (SPbOTSIC 2018) 2018).
Keywords:intelligent transportation systems; feasibility study; life cycle of an ITS project
project.
Keywords:intelligent transportation systems; feasibility study; life cycle of an ITS project
project.

1. Introduction
1. Introduction
With automobilization increasing in large cities, there is a growing need to introduce intelligent transportation
systems (ITS) and modern
With automobilization methods
increasing of transportation
in large cities, there isindustry management.Considering
a growing Considering
need to introduce the complexity
intelligent of
transportation
architecture
systems (ITS)and and
technical solutions
modern usedofin transportation
methods ITS development, as wellmanagement.Considering
industry as the high Considering
cost of ITS andthe their significant
complexity of
influence onand
architecture traffic flows,solutions
technical the possibility
used in and
ITS practicability
development, of as implementing such
well as the high costsystem
systems
of ITS s and
shalltheir
be thoroughly
significant
analyzed. To traffic
influence on make itflows,
possible to choose the
the possibility and most optimal option
practicability of ITS implementation
of implementing systemssboth
such system shallinbeterms of the
thoroughly
analyzed. To make it possible to choose the most optimal option of ITS implementation both in terms of the

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +7-977-727-64-99; fax: +0-000-000

000-0000 .
* E-mail:tdr2004@mail.ru
Corresponding author. Tel.: +7-977-727-64-99; fax: +0-000-000
000-0000 .
E-mail:tdr2004@mail.ru
2352-1465© 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
This is an open
2352-1465© access
2018 Thearticle under
Authors. the CC by
Published BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by
Elsevier B.V. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)Peer-review under
responsibility
This is an openofaccess
the scientific committee
article under the CCof the Thirteenth
BY-NC-ND International
license Conference on Organization and Traffic Safety Management
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)Peer-review
(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by under in
Large Cities (SPbOTSIC
responsibility 2018).
of the scientific committee of the Thirteenth International Conference on Organization and Traffic Safety Management in
Large Cities (SPbOTSIC 2018).

2352-1465  2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the Thirteenth International Conference on Organization and Traffic Safety
Management in Large Cities (SPbOTSIC 2018).
10.1016/j.trpro.2018.12.068
842 Sultan Zhankaziev et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 36 (2018) 841–847
2 Sultan Zhankaziev, Maxim Gavrilyuk, Dmitriy Morozov, Aleksey Zabudsky/ Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000

municipality and transport network, and users of public roads, with no excessive and impractical costs, it is
necessary to conduct a feasibility study for each project.
The feasibility study of an ITS project is a process including the analysis, calculation and evaluation of the
technical and economic feasibility of an ITS project (or lack thereof). The feasibility study includes the analysis of
ITS project performance indicators and calculation of the project cost(Agureev et al., 2017; Asaul et al., 2017;
Belokurov et al., 2017; Borovik et al., 2017; Burlov and Grachev, 2017; Chubukov et al., 2017). The feasibility
study is an integral part of the life cycle of an ITS project, conducted both at the stage of project validation and
during project operation (Dar et al., 2010; Galińska, 2019; Min and Wynter, 2011; Vaa et al., 2007). As regulatory
documents do not specify any requirements to the process of feasibility study development and execution, it is
necessary to establish a corresponding algorithm. It will allow for greater clarity in the project documentation and
ensure speeding up the analysis of the projects presented.
This article addresses requirements to conducting a feasibility study at the stage of ITS project validation.

2. Feasibility study in the life cycle of an ITS

The life cycle of an intelligent transportation system is a set of interrelated processes of the creation and
consistent changing in the ITS state within the time limits from the formation of initial requirements to such system
to the completion of its operation and disposal of ITS facilities (Zhankaziev, 2012;2016).
The life cycle of an ITS project includes the following stages (Figure 1):

 ITS project development initiative;

 development of an assignment for ITS project creation;
 development of an idealistic model of the ITS project;
 development of a refined ITS project model;
 development of design documentation for the ITS project;
 implementation of the ITS project;
 operation of the ITS project;
 upgrading or decommissioning of the ITS project.

Fig. 1. A sequence of stages of the ITS project life cycle.

 Sultan Zhankaziev et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 36 (2018) 841–847 843
Sultan Zhankaziev, Maxim Gavrilyuk, Dmitriy Morozov
Morozov, Aleksey Zabudsky/ Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000 3

The feasibility study of an ITS project is a part

art of ITS project validation, which is included into the development
of a refined ITS model. Within the frame of the feasibility study of an ITS project, the project efficiency is evaluated
with the use of specialized simulation modeling programs, as well as methods approved at the legislative level or
approved by the project owner. The most optimal ITS project is selected using an expert method by comparing the
ITS project efficiency with its estimated implementation cost.
The efficiency evaluation regarding
ing the implementation of a local ITS project is a complex multi
multi-criteria
criteria task. To
ensure rational project investment, it is necessary to form an implementation effectiveness function. The
implementation effectiveness is determined according to an integrat
integrated
ed indicator of ITS performance which is
calculated on the basis of target indicators.
The global practice lacks a unified method for conducting feasibility studies for ITS projects. Usually
government authorities set a project development assignment, and developers present their commercial proposals in
free form, following — in most cases — the similar structure. Establishment of regulations for such documents
allows comparing the submitted proposals and identifying project disadvantages, intentionally not mentioned by
system manufacturers, at early stages (Akintoye, 2000; Sinha and Labi, 2007; Zimina et al., 2012).

3. Architecture of performance indicators of the feasibility study

To ensure the required level of reliability and optimize the composition of the feasibility study, an architecture of
performance indicators evaluated during the feasibility study was developed. This architecture reflects all
performance indicators of the ITS project being developed, which can be evaluated at the stage of validation.
Performance indicators reflect changes that can be achieved through the implementation of the ITS project and are
presented in the form of a physical indicator and also transfo
transformed
rmed into cash equivalent according to the approved
calculation method (Vorobyev et al., 2014a, 2014b; Zhankaziev
Zhankaziev, 2012).
In the formation of an architecture for indicators evaluated in during the feasibility study, three levels of
indicators can be distinguished (Figure 2):

 a level of integrated indicators by subjects;

 a level of target indicators;
 a level of functional indicators.

Fig. 2. An architecture of ITS project performance evaluation indicators at the stage of validation
validation.
844 Sultan Zhankaziev et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 36 (2018) 841–847
4 Sultan Zhankaziev, Maxim Gavrilyuk, Dmitriy Morozov, Aleksey Zabudsky/ Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000

The structure of ITS project indicators is divided into three subjects:

 an executive body (ITS project owner): this group includes performance indicators for the evaluation of the
overall ITS project performance, including the evaluation of the ITS project implementation profitability;
 a social group: this group includes ITS project performance indicators forming ITS project implementation
attractiveness for non-commercial users of motor roads;
 a commercial group: this group includes performance indicators forming ITS project implementation
attractiveness for commercial legal entities, i.e. entities aimed to gain profit.

The level of target indicators is formed on the basis of influence domains of the ITS project being developed. The
following main groups can be distinguished:

 ensuring traffic safety;

 ensuring environmental safety of traffic;
 ensuring ITS project financial attractiveness;
 increasing goods and cargo turnover;
 increasing passenger turnover;
 improving user comfort.

The level of functional performance indicators represents a list of physical indicators for the evaluation of the ITS
project performance efficiency. The list of functional indicators is based on the objectives and requirements of the
ITS project owner, which, in their turn, are based on the issues associated with the implementation site.

4. Methods for evaluating the ITS project efficiency within the framework of the feasibility study

The evaluation of the ITS project implementation efficiency shall be carried out according to the following three
indicators:

 changes in the physical values of functional performance indicators;

 criterion analysis of the ITS project implementation efficiency;
 cost estimate of the ITS project implementation efficiency.

Only an overall and comprehensive analysis of these indicators gives a full picture of the efficiency of particular
design and management decisions upon ITS project implementation.
Determination of changes in the absolute values of functional indicators is a priority task as it provides an
opportunity to evaluate the real changes for each functional indicator upon ITS project implementation. In case of
numerous functional performance indicators, it is almost impossible to evaluate the overall (total) effect provided
upon ITS project implementation. On the one hand, this is due to the impossibility of direct addition (summing-up)
of changes in functional performance indicators for obtaining a single integrated indicator of the ITS project
implementation efficiency because of different values of their measurements; on the other hand, absolute values of
changes in different functional indicators are perceived in different ways for each of the subjects, and direct
summing-up of changes in all functional indicators will not reflect the actual effect from ITS project
implementation. Thus, in addition, it is necessary to apply a criterion analysis of the efficiency evaluation to obtain
an overall integrated performance indicator expressed in a dimensionless value that would take into account the
significance of each functional indicator for a particular subject, as well as the cost estimate of the ITS project
implementation efficiency expressed in a material benefit from changes in the absolute values of functional
indicators.

4.1. Criterion approach to the efficiency analysis regarding the implementation of a local ITS project

At the stage of the development of a refined ITS project model, it is necessary to solve problems related to the
 Sultan Zhankaziev et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 36 (2018) 841–847 845
Sultan Zhankaziev, Maxim Gavrilyuk, Dmitriy Morozov, Aleksey Zabudsky/ Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000 5

choice of hardware and software options, as well as the entire organizational structure of the system for the solution
of its tasks.
To compare different options of ITS project implementation and choose the optimal one, integrated performance
indicators are used, which are, in turn, formed by combining changes in target and functional performance
indicators. An integrated performance indicator comprises target and functional indicators with their own weight
factors which take into account the importance of each indicator. Nowadays, there is a large number of methods for
calculating weight factors of target and functional performance indicators of an ITS project. It is recommended that
the number of functional performance indicators taken into account when calculating a target indicator does not
exceed 10, since the comparison of a larger number of indicators is limited by psychological capabilities of a person,
and in case of further increase in the number of functional performance indicators, the probability of their erroneous
ranking grows.
The calculation of the integrated performance indicator upon a criterion analysis of the ITS implementation
efficiency is presented below:

I e  F ( I t1 , I t 2 , , I tn ) (1)

n
I t  I f 1k1  I f 2 k 2    I fn k n   ( I fi ki ) (2)
i 1

where

 — a functional indicator of the ITS project implementation efficiency;
 — a weight factor of the i-th functional indicator of the ITS project implementation efficiency;

 — a target indicator of the ITS project implementation efficiency;

 — an integrated indicator of the ITS project implementation efficiency;
Since the determination of the ITS project efficiency during the feasibility study is carried out at the stage of ITS
project validation, the only possibility of the quantitative evaluation of functional performance indicators is the use
of simulation modeling tools.
With the help of simulation modeling programs, it is possible to determine quantitative characteristics of the main
parameters of a traffic flow (e.g. average speed, traffic intensity, delays en route, etc.), which makes it possible to
calculate changes in the values of functional performance indicators, and thus to substantiate the environmental
efficiency, efficiency in the field of traffic safety, efficiency in the field of traffic management and the efficiency of
management in road and transport companies upon ITS project implementation.

4.2. Cost approach to the efficiency analysis regarding the implementation of a local ITS project

To perform a cost estimate for the implementation of a local ITS project, all changes in the absolute values of
functional performance indicators shall be converted into monetary terms.
An economic evaluation of changes in the absolute values of functional performance indicators is necessary to
choose the most optimal option of ITS project implementation. The economic effect makes it possible to perform an
unbiased evaluation of various options of ITS project implementation, evaluate the efficiency of various activities
and target programs, which makes it possible to determine the amount of financing and material resources that are
needed for ITS creation.
The economic evaluation of ITS project implementation and provision of the corresponding information to the
society also have a powerful social and psychological effect which contributes to the society's awareness of the
importance of ongoing activities in traffic management and formation of public support for their implementation.
When performing a cost estimate of the ITS project implementation efficiency, the integrated performance
indicator is determined by the equations presented below and expressed in the currency of the Russian Federation
(Russian ruble).
846 Sultan Zhankaziev et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 36 (2018) 841–847
6 Sultan Zhankaziev, Maxim Gavrilyuk, Dmitriy Morozov, Aleksey Zabudsky/ Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000

n
Ie   It (3)
i 1

n
I t  F1 ( I f 1 )  F2 ( I f 2 )    Fn ( I fn )   Fi ( I fi ) (4)
i 1

where
 — a function of converting the i-th functional indicator of the ITS project implementation efficiency into cash
equivalent;

 — a functional indicator of the ITS project implementation efficiency;

 — a target indicator of the ITS project implementation efficiency;

 — an integrated indicator of the ITS project implementation efficiency;
When performing a cost estimate of the ITS project efficiency, methods for calculating functional performance
indicators, approved by legislative acts of the Russian Federation, or prescribed by an assignment for ITS project
creation, or agreed upon with the Customer at the stage of development of the feasibility study for an ITS project,
are used.

5. Methods for calculating the ITS project cost

The calculation of the ITS project cost includes the cost estimate of the ITS elements, ITS subsystems and
automated top-level control system.
The cost of ITS tooling subsystem elements can be determined by various methods. However, the determination
of the cost of subsystem elements by all available methods is often impossible due to the specific nature of the
equipment used, absence of Russian analogues, uniqueness and complexity of the equipment constituting the
subsystem, and due to other reasons. Therefore, the most appropriate method for determining the cost should be
selected for each type of equipment.
The calculation of the cost for an ITS subsystem element can be performed for each type of equipment
individually, and then such costs shall be summed up, and the total cost of such ITS subsystem element shall be
determined.
The determination of the base cost of ITS elements is carried out with the use of the following three methods: an
estimated method, a cost method, a method of comparison with analogues.
The cost estimate method for ITS subsystems suggests the following sequence for determining the base price of
ITS subsystems at all stages of the life cycle of projects: front-end engineering design, design and capital works,
operation. The method includes the cost estimate of each tooling subsystem, indicating basic costs for creating and
implementing of integrated ITS subsystems, as well as their cost calculation.
The cost estimate method for automated top-level systems determines the composition of system elements,
addresses the costs for the creation and arrangement of ITS data processing centers, provides a methodological
approach to determine the cost estimate of the ACS. Judging by stages of the project life cycle, costs are composed
of front-end engineering design, design, capital and operational (for the first year of operation) costs.
The calculation of the cost of automated top-level control systems is affected by the following factors:

 the type of the selected system (an indicator characterizing the area of system implementation);
 the level of system automation;
 the system architecture complexity (an indicator characterizing control principles of the system under
consideration);
 the number of controlled objects (an indicator characterizing the scale of the system).
 Sultan Zhankaziev et al. / Transportation Research Procedia 36 (2018) 841–847 847
Sultan Zhankaziev, Maxim Gavrilyuk, Dmitriy Morozov, Aleksey Zabudsky/ Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2018) 000–000 7

6. Conclusions

Based on the material presented in the paper, a preliminary national standard, imposing requirements on the
feasibility study of ITS projects, including methods for calculating the efficiency of the implemented project and its
cost estimate, has been developed. This standard formalizes the requirement for the stage-by-stage approach and
scope of works required during the feasibility study of an ITS project. The standard is aimed at improving the
quality of ITS project development.
The requirements and methods described within the framework of this standard will be used to develop a
software aimed at the automation of the feasibility study both at the stage of ITS project validation and during its
operation. Therefore, a system for control of commercial proposals submitted by manufacturers and suppliers will
be developed. It will allow performing proper project evaluation and timely identifying serious disadvantages which
can lead to poor ITS operation and, as a result, to large inefficient financial expenses.

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