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Fase 2 Teoria de Las Decisiones PDF
Fase 2 Teoria de Las Decisiones PDF
Aldemar González
González Martínez.
Code 1099365901
Group 212066_31
September 2018
National open and distance university (UNAD).
CEAD Valledupar.
Introduction
progress of any of the social, economic, political and educational approaches, where
you can always expect to generate the best result, for this the importance of tools such
as the decision tree, According to the evaluation and study carried out, the results of
this study lead us to determine which of the options is the most useful for what I am
looking for.
Knowing how to use the tool means that we can find the expected value of the perfect
information and the expected value of the information show, variables that determine
with figures that are close to reality and thus be able to guide a decision maker towards
Teratex, a textile company that has a productive experience in the foreign market of 25
years, must decide if it manufactures a new product in its main plant, or if on the
contrary the purchase from an external supplier. The profits depend on the demand of
the product. The table shows projected profits, in millions of dollars.
a. Use EVPI to determine if the company should try to get a better estimate of the demand.
DEMANDA
Low 0,35 221
Manufacture Node 2 Half 0,42 251 254,07 N
O
I
High 0,23 310 S
I
C
E
D
Low 0,35 210 - It would be recommended to
1 Node 2
Node 1 Subcontract Node 3 Half 0,42 225 231,94 E manufacture with an expected value of $
D 254,07
High 0,23 278 O 254.07 million for being the one that
254,07 N
T
L
U
Low 0,35 195 S
E
233,84 R
Buy Node 4 Half 0,42 236
High 0,23 289
Node 1
MARKET
RESEARCH
High 0,28 310
264,69 Manufacture Node 7 Half 0,44 251
258,82 Low 0,28 221
Interpretation: the market study would have a payment of 264.64 million, If favorable,
the best option would be Fabricate with a payment of 272.62 million; equally if it were
unfavorable, the best option would also be Fabricate with a payment of 258.82 million.
EVMI (10,62)
E 0,00 0%
EVPI (0,0)
a. Use EVPI to determine if t he company should try to ge t a bett er est imate of the demand.
DEMANDA
Low 0,19 173
Low Average 0,21 183
195,66
Manufacture Node 2 High Medium 0,28 195
High 0,32 218
FAVORABLE
Conditional Later
Sta te Pre vious probabilities Joint Probabilities
Probabilities Probabilities
Low 0,19 0,2 0,04 0,11
Low Average 0,21 0,2 0,04 0,12
High Medium 0,28 0,35 0,10 0,29
High 0,32 0,5 0,16 0,47
P (F) 0,338
UNFAVORABLE
Conditional Later
Sta te Pre vious probabilities Joint Probabilities
Probabilities Probabilities
Low 0,19 0,8 0,15 0,23
Low Average 0,21 0,8 0,17 0,25
High Medium 0,28 0,65 0,18 0,27
High 0,32 0,5 0,16 0,24
P (U) 0,662
Node 1
MARKET
RESEARCH Low 0,23 173
202,90 Manufacture Low Average 0,25 183
Node 9
High Medium 0,27 195
192,46 High 0,24 218
Interpretation: the market study would have a payment of 202.90 million, if favorable,
the best option would be to buy with a payment of 206.85 million; equally, if it were
unfavorable, the best option would also be Buy with a payment of 200.89 million.
c. What is the expected value of market research information?
EVMI (-1,91)
E * 100 -100%
EVPI (1,91)
Interpretation: It is observed that the EVMI is not efficient against the EVPI, so it would
not be considered necessary to carry out a market study, since instead of helping, it
generates a 100% inefficiency.
Problem 3. DECISION TREES, EVPI and EVMI
Teratextyl, a textile company that has a productive experience in the foreign market of
30 years, must decide if it manufactures a new product in its main plant, or if on the
contrary the purchase from an external supplier. The profits depend on the demand of
the product. The table shows projected profits, in millions of dollars.
a. Use EVPI to determine if the company should try to get a better estimate of the demand.
DEMANDA
Low 0,30 85
Low Average 0,22 87
89,24
Manufacture Node 2 High Medium 0,25 91
High 0,23 95
Low 0,30 78
Low Average 0,22 81
82,94
Subcontract Node 3 High Medium 0,25 85
N
High 0,23 89 O
I
S
I
C
E
Low 0,30 82 D It would be recommended to
-
Low Average 0,22 85 1 Node 2 Manufacture with an expected value of
85,75 E
Node 1 Buy Node 4 High Medium 0,25 87 D 89,24 $ 89,24 million for being the one that
O
High 0,23 90 N generates the best utility
89,24 T
L
U
S
Low 0,30 83 E
R
Low Average 0,22 85
86,28
Lease Node 5 High Medium 0,25 87
High 0,23 91
Low 0,30 85
Low Average 0,22 87
88,28
Outsource Node 6 High Medium 0,25 89
High 0,23 93
FAVORABLE
Conditional Later
Sta te Previous proba bilitie s Joint Probabilities
Probabilities Probabilities
Low 0,22 0,30 0,07 0,20
Low Average 0,35 0,22 0,08 0,24
High Medium 0,33 0,25 0,08 0,26
High 0,42 0,23 0,10 0,30
P (F) 0,322
UNFAVORABLE
Conditional Later
Sta te Previous proba bilitie s Joint Probabilities
Probabilities Probabilities
Low 0,78 0,30 0,23 0,35
Low Average 0,65 0,22 0,14 0,21
High Medium 0,67 0,25 0,17 0,25
High 0,58 0,23 0,13 0,20
P (U) 0,678
Low 0,20 85
Low Average 0,24 87
Manufacture Node 4
High Medium 0,26 91
90,01 High 0,30 95
Low 0,20 78
Low Average 0,24 81
Subcontract Node 5
High Medium 0,26 85
83,81 High 0,30 89
Low 0,20 83
Low Average 0,24 85
Subcontract Node 7
High Medium 0,26 87
86,90 High 0,30 91
Low 0,20 85
Low Average 0,24 87
Buy Node 8
High Medium 0,26 89
88,90 High 0,30 93
Node 1
MARKET
RESEARCH Low 0,35 85
89,24 Low Average 0,21 87
Manufacture Node 9
High Medium 0,25 91
88,87 High 0,20 95
Low 0,35 78
Low Average 0,21 81
Subcontract Node 10
High Medium 0,25 85
82,53 High 0,20 89
Low 0,35 82
Buy Low Average 0,21 85
UNFAVORABLE Node 3 Node 11
High Medium 0,25 87
0,678 85,44 High 0,20 90
Low 0,35 85
Buy Low Average 0,21 87
Node 13
High Medium 0,25 89
87,98 High 0,20 93
Interpretation: the market study would have a payment of 89.24 million, If favorable,
the best option would be Fabricate with a payment of 90.01 million; equally if it were
unfavorable, the best option would also be Fabricate with a payment of 88.87 million.
c. What is the expected value of market research information?
EVMI (0)
E * 100 0%
EVPI (0)
Interpretation: There is NOT something concrete, since the EVPI and EVMI give me 0,
for which neither of the two options is pertinent to choose.
SCREENSHOTS OF THE PRACTICAL STAGE
Exercise 1
Exercise 2
Exercise 3
Conclusions.
This phase 2, has contributed in a positive way in the way of how to face the
decisions under premises of uncertainty and risk, which allows to speed up the work of
professionals through the use of useful tools such as the decision tree associated with
the expected value of the perfect information and expected value of the sample
information, determining with accuracy the degree of efficiency between the one and the
other, in such a way that the decision making is given in a more complete and accurate
way.
In the same way, this phase has been a demanding and competitive challenge so that
as a student I can learn to develop and undertake new knowledge that strengthens my
Sanderson, C. (2006). Analytical Models for Decision Making. New York, USA:
McGraw-Hill Education Editorial. Retrieved
from http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2051/login.aspx?direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=23
4098&lang=es&site=eds-live
Rokach, L. (2008). Data Mining With Decision Trees: Theory And Applications , Bern,
Switzerland: H. Bunke, University Bern, Switzerland. Retrieved
from http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2051/login.aspx?direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=23
6037&lang=es&site=eds-live