Caused by Collapsed Dam

Case Study:
Xe Pian - Xe Namnoy Dam Collapse (Lao PDR)

FLOOD EARLY WARNING SYSTEM 2019

Master of Engineering Program
in Natural Disaster Management Presented by:
Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering Paula Swastika (12387)
Yoppi Aditya Priyadi Putra (12391)
GADJAH MADA UNIVERSITY
INTRODUCTION

A computer-generated image of a dam being built in Laos by
Xe-Pian Xe-Namnoy Power Company
(source: http://www.pnpclaos.com/index.php/en/project )
XE PIAN – XE NAMNOY
DAM
The dam, close to the Cambodian border, was
intended to operate to a capacity
of 410 megawatts and earn
revenue for the government by exporting 90%
of the electricity produced to Thailand, which is
more economically prosperous and develop
compared of Laos.
2008 :
● November 14, 2008 Project Development Agreement
between the GOL, SKE&C, RATCH and KOWEPO is signed.
2010 - 2011 :
● June 15, 2011 Shareholders’ Agreement is signed by all major
Shareholders.
● September 29, 2011 Enterprise Name Approval Certificate is
issued.
● August 16, 2010 Tariff MOU with the Electricity Generating
Authority of Thailand is signed.
2013 :
● February 1, 2013 Land Lease Agreement is signed between
PNPC and the GOL.
2015 - 2017 :
● April 9, 2015 The Xe-Namnoy River is diverted.
● February 16, 2015 The Xe-Pian River is diverted.
 2018 Breaking Dam
22 July 21:00
The dam is found to be 23 July 03:00
partially damaged. The 23 July 12:00
authorities are alerted and Water is 23 July 18:00
villagers near the dam start to discharged from The state government 24 July
More damage
be evacuated. A team is sent one of the main orders villagers By 01:30, a village
is confirmed at
to repair the dam - but is dams (Xe Namnoy downstream to near the subsidiary
the dam
hampered by heavy rain, dam) to try to evacuate after learning dam is flooded, and
which has also damaged many lower water that there could be by 09:30, seven
roads. levels in the further damage to the villages are
subsidiary dam. dam. flooded.
 Disaster
summary
● Extensive flood occurred on 23 July ,
downstream one of the dams of the Xe
Pian - Xe Namnoy Power Project, under-
construction in southern Lao People's
Democratic Republic (Lao PDR); the flood
was due to the partial failure of the dam
as a result of the recent heavy rains that
affected the area over the last week.

● The event caused flash flooding in many

villages of Sanamxay district ( Attapeu
Province ), casualties and damage: Mai ,
Hinlath , Thasengchan , Thahintai ,
Sanong , Thae , Phonsa-ath and
Nongkhae

● LAO’s Government has declared the

affected areas as National Disaster Area.
● Over the next 10 days more rain
(accumulated amounts higher than 150 mm)
may affect the area, which could further
worsen the situation.
● UN OCHA established an emergency
section in VOSOCC, to collect information
and offers for helps.
 Dam situation
at disaster time
● A partial failure of one of the dams of the Xe-Pian Xe-Namnoy Power Project, under-construction in southern
Lao PDR, occurred on 23 July evening, causing the release of about 5 billion cubic meters of water
and causing flash flooding in many villages of Sanamxay district (Attapeu Province ), casualties and damage.

● The event was probably due to the recent heavy rains caused by the monsoon season and the passage of
Tropical Storm Son-Tinh that affected several areas of Lao PDR, causing floods and damage. GDACS
issued the first Orange Alert on 15 July for the possible impact TC Son-Tinh in the Philippines, China, Vietnam and
Lao PDR.

● An urgent evacuation notice was published on 23 July indicating that the Saddle Dam D was unsafe due
to heavy rainfall, with very dangerous conditions (water overflowing the dam crest), if the Saddle
Dam D fail, over five billion tons of water would flow downstream of Xe-Pain River, and informing the people living
in the villages near downstream Xe-Pian River to evacuate to high level locations.

● Over the next few days more heavy rain is forecast to affect the area, which could further worsen the
situation.

● The dam is under-construction (90% complete, according to media) and had been set to start operating
commercially in 2019. According to media reports, fractures were first discovered on the dam on 22 July, before it
collapsed.

● ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance reported on 30 July in VOSOCC: Based on latest satellite
observation on Sanamxai District (29 July 2018), about 42.36 km2 is still flooded, with 32.53 km2 agricultural
area. Within the flooded area, 302 buildings and 31.5 km road length submerged in water. Should wet weather
persist, flood waters may not recede as quickly as expected
DAM BREAK
ANALYSIS
Meteorological
situation Recent heavy rainfall may have
influenced the dam failure as the region has
endured frequent
downpours in recent weeks. The wet ( East
Asian Monsoon) season in southern
Laos runs from
June into early October when roughly
1,650 mm (mean
climatological value) are
recordered of the annual total
amount of 2,000 mm based
Surface map (analysis) valid for 25 July 2018 00 UTC. 10-meter on WMO climatological assessment with
winds and isotach lines of equal speed are also plotted defining reference point the weather station of Pakse
various color shaded areas - data source NOAA-GFS .
(source: http://www.pnpclaos.com/index.php/en/project ) at about 55 km to the west of Xe Pian - Xe
Namnoy area.
 TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH EFFECT
The current surface weather map, including the low pressure area (1002 hPa) over Vietnam
coasts that is affecting most areas of Laos. The recent heavy rains are linked to the prevailing monsoon
conditions and the passage of the Tropical Storm SON-TINH over northern Lao PDR.

Significant amounts (locally higher than 200 mm) of rainfall have been recorded during the past
10 days (from 15 to 24 July 2018) over the greater area of interest mainly due the passage of
Tropical Storm.

(source: http://www.pnpclaos.com/index.php/en/project )
(source: http://www.pnpclaos.com/index.php/en/project )
Mean (climatological) monthly values for Pakse weather
Past 10-Day accumulated rainfall (NASA-GPM) and the station.
track of TC SON-TINH (black line)
Condition of Disaster Location by 25 July 2018
(source: European Commission JRC, 2018)
JRC’s Flash Flood Calculation by 30 July 2018
(source: European Commission JRC, 2018)
FLASH FLOOD PROPAGATION (1)

Beginning to
be inundated
FLASH FLOOD PROPAGATION (2)

Entering the
Main River Exceeded the
main river
FLASH FLOOD PROPAGATION (3)

Widening
Exceeded Water
The Flood
Continued to Flow
FLASH FLOOD PROPAGATION (4)

Beginning to Inundate high Inundation was

density settlement area widening
FLASH FLOOD PROPAGATION (5)
 Flash Flood Arrival Time (EU-JRC,2018)

The timeline of the dam break water propagation indicates that the water proceeded
quite fast in the initial part of the path, where the slope was extremely high but once the
water reaches the flat area the propagation speed becomes considerably reduced and the arrival time
to the first important locations (i.e. Hinlath) in about 8 hours and 12 m water depth. Thabok was reached after
18 h with 6.8 m water height.

JRC’s Flash Flood Calculation by 30 July 2018

(source: European Commission JRC, 2018)
 Inundation Depth

The behaviour of the level at the locations can be seen from the image here.
After 24 hours, the water is still present in all the locations

Water Level at Prone Area

(source: European Commission JRC, 2018)
Inundation Depth Map by 30 July 2018
(source: European Commission JRC, 2018)
Arrival Time Calculation by 30 July 2018
(source: European Commission JRC, 2018)
 Decreasing of Xe Namnoy Water Level

By RADARSAT-2 satellite
radar images, with resolution
3 m, the voiding of the lake can be
seen in the image below (before
and after the break ) and as
calculated in the dam break
analysis. In both cases it is evident
the strong reduction of
the surface of the lake.

(source:
http://unosat-maps.web.cern.ch/unosat-
maps/LA/FL20180723LAO/UNOSAT_A3_FL20180723_Oveview_Situation_report_25July
2018.pdf)
Difference of the Surface Lake by Satellite Imagery
CONCLUSION
 Conclusion
 The dam break analysis, performed by JRC, has identified the
areas mostly affected and the extent is in good agreement
with the analysis performed using radar satellite images
although the distinction between monsoon/tropical storm rainfall
contribution and dam break contribution is not easy
 Over the next 10 days more rain (accumulated amounts higher
than 150 mm) may affect the area, which could further worsen the
situation
 The analysis has shown that the most affected locations have
been hit after 7 hours from the break and therefore sample time
was available to alert the population
 Therefore, in principle, the amount oftime for the evacuation
wasrelatively long but probably the night time of the
event did not allow a proper managing of the emergency
Master of Engineering Program
in Natural Disaster Management
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
GADJAH MADA UNIVERSITY
YOGYAKARTA

THANK YOU

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