Sustainability of Food Grain Production in India - An Economic Analysis

Kanchan Datta1, Chinmoy Sarkar2, and Kanak Kanti Bagchi3

1. Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of North Bengal,

kanchan.datta@gmail.com
2. Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Siliguri College of Commerce,
sarkar_chinu@rediffmail.com
3. Professor, Department of Economics, University of North Bengal,
kkbagchi@hotmail.com

Abstract

Sustainability means in the process of development no steps should be taken which is

harmful to the future generations to get resources and all other things which the present
generations are enjoying or consuming. Development or progress indicates that if an
individual, or institution or a state feels or perceives better today compared to previous
day from the point of view of improved standard of living and sustained or improved
environment, then it is said that they are in the right track of the journey of human
development. In this context by the term sustainability of food grain production we mean
the sustenance of per capita availability of food grain production for the current generation
that will also be available for the future generations. Since development needs better
future, if the per capita availability of food grain production declines that would definitely
imply a threat to the mankind. The central question that has been addressed in the present
paper is: What is the state of sustainability of food grain production in India up to 2030
taking into consideration of the current scenario? We intend to calculate per capita
availability of food grain (both cereals and non-cereals) in India up to 2030, since one of
the important goals of sustainable development set by the United Nations is ‘no poverty’
and a ‘hunger free world by 2030’. The paper is based on secondary data which shall be
collected from various sources like the data bases of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural
Development of Government of India, FAO, RBI, Ministry of Statistics and Programme
implementation (MOSPI) etc. We shall use ARIMA Forecasting (Box-Jenkins) technique for
forecasting the total food grain production availability up to the chosen year 2030 and
trend analysis for forecasting population growth in India up to the same year.

Key Words: Sustainability, Food grain, ARIMA (Box-Jenkins) Forecasting, India