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Characterization of Various Infrastructures in Surigao del Norte and Surigao

del Sur using Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA)

Conference Paper · June 2016

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 CHARACTERIZATION OF VARIOUS INFRASTRUCTURES
IN SURIGAO DEL NORTE AND SURIGAO DEL SUR
USING PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT (PSHA)

Joenel Galupino, MSCE1, Lessandro Estelito O. Garciano, D. Eng.1, Jonathan R. Dungca, D. Eng.1,
Edward Ephrem Codilla II1, Carlo Dominic Dela Cruz1, Christopher Madrona1 and Andrea
Quiniquini¹

¹ Civil Engineering Department, Gokongwei College of Engineering, De La Salle University, Manila, Philippines

Abstract : With a total population of 1,003,807 (as of 2010) and an active Surigao Philippine Fault Zone (PFZ) present in the
provinces of Surigao del Norte and Surigao del Sur, makes these provinces vulnerable to seismic hazards. The Probabilistic
Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) quantified the different uncertainties, such as: location, size, and shaking intensity of
future seismic motions, and combined them to produce an explicit description of the distribution of future shaking that may
occur in Surigao del Norte and Surigao del Sur. The important infrastructures considered in Surigao del Norte and Surigao del
Sur are the following: Churches, Universities, Bridges, Hospitals and Municipal Halls. These infrastructures were assessed
though Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment and thoroughly characterized qualitatively according to Low, Medium and
High Priority. These characterizations may be used as basis for seismic provisions in building codes, budget allocations for
risk reduction and for risk models used in insurance rate structures.

Key words : Earthquake, probabilistic modeling, Philippines, hazard assessment, infrastructures

1 INTRODUCTION
Earthquakes can cause losses in billions of dollars and
thousands of lives yearly. It is necessary to evaluate the
earthquake hazards to mitigate these losses. Many studies on
seismic hazards have been conducted such as the faults,
sources of earthquakes, and ground shaking, the data
garnered were transformed and updated into a medium that
will serve as a guide to reduce the risk from the said hazards,
most of these guides are in a form of maps.
One of the forms in assessing the hazards of earthquakes is
by utilizing the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment, a
tool which aims to quantify the uncertainties involved in
seismic activities, and combine these to generate a
distribution of earthquakes that may occur at a particular
location. These assessments may be used as basis for seismic
provisions in building codes and for risk models used in
insurance rate structures.
Surigao is divided into two (2) political provinces, namely,
Surigao del Norte and Surigao del Sur, they are both located
in the CARAGA Region of Mindanao. Their capital cities
are Surigao City and tandag City, respectively. Surigao del
Norte is consists of two major islands, Siargao and Bucas
Grande, in the Philippine Sea, and a small region at the
northernmost tip of the island of Mindanao, while Surigao
del Sur is located at the eastern coast of Mindanao and faces
the Philippine Sea.
Surigao del Norte has 21 municipalities, that covers an area
of 197,293 hectares which is roughly equivalent to 9.67
percent of the total land area of Northern Mindanao. Surigao
del Sur has 19 municipalities, that covers 493,270 hectares,
which is 5.14 percent of the total land area of Mindanao.
Because of its location in the northernmost of Mindanao,
they have been an important transportation hub between
Visayas and Mindanao, many ferries cross the Surigao Strait
between Surigao and the island of Leyte carrying vehicles
and passengers coming to the two (2) provinces. Their total
population, as of 2010, is 1,003,807.
Referencing on the 2010 edition of the National Structural
Code of the Philippines (ASEP, 2010), Surigao is classified
under zone 4 of earthquake zone map. Surigao was also
identified as one of the top ten Philippine provinces
susceptible to earthquakes, together with La Union, Benguet
and others. One of the active faults around the province is
Surigao Fault making it very susceptible to frequent seismic
events. Surigao fault traces from Surigao del Norte up to the
province of Surigao del Sur.
With enough knowledge on the seismicity of Surigao Fault
structural engineers can ensure that their designed structures
can withstand a given level of ground shaking while
maintaining a desired level of performance. There is
uncertainty on the location, size, and resulting shaking
intensity of future seismic motions. Probabilistic Seismic
Hazard Analysis (PSHA) will quantify the uncertainties, and
combine them to produce an explicit description of the
distribution of future shaking that may occur in Surigao del
Norte’s and Surigao del Sur’s municipalities. Once PSHA
the different municipalities is understood, it can
accommodate the needs of different users.
With a total population of 1,003,807 and an active Surigao

1
fault present in Surigao del Norte and Surigao del Sur,
makes it vulnerable to seismic hazards. There is
uncertainty on the location, size, and resulting shaking
intensity of future seismic motions that may occur on
Surigao, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) will
quantify the uncertainties, and combine them to produce an
explicit description of the distribution of future shaking that
may occur in Surigao del Norte’s and Surigao del Sur’s
municipalities and infrastructures.
2 METHODOLOGY
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment will consider all
possible earthquake events and resulting ground motions,
along with their associated probabilities of occurrence, in
order to find the level of ground motion intensity exceeded
with some tolerably low rate. Baker (2008) proposed five (5)
basic steps in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment:
a) Identify all earthquake sources capable of
producing damaging ground motions.
b) Characterize the distribution of earthquake
magnitudes.
c) Characterize the distribution of source-to-site
distances associated with potential earthquakes.
d) Predict the resulting distribution of ground motion
intensity as a function of earthquake magnitude,
distance, etc.
e) Combine uncertainties in earthquake size, location
and ground motion intensity, using a calculation
known as the total probability theorem.
The end result of these calculations will be a full distribution
of levels of ground shaking intensity, and their associated
rates of exceedance. The results can then be used to identify
a ground motion intensity having an acceptably small
probability of being exceeded.
In detail, to identify all earthquake sources capable of
producing damaging ground motions, seismic records by the
Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology
(PHIVOLCS) were used and magnitudes are presented as
surface magnitude, thus surface magnitudes were converted
to moment magnitudes, using this equation:
−0.222+0.233𝑀𝑠
𝑀𝑤 = 𝑒 + 2.863 (1)
(1)
Where: Mw is the earthquake moment magnitude and Ms is
the earthquake surface wave magnitude.
To characterize the distribution of earthquake magnitudes,
the Gutenberg – Richter recurrence law was used to
determine the Probability Distribution of Seismic Magnitude
M, P(M):
𝑎−𝑏𝑚 (2)
𝜆𝑚 = 10 = exp(𝛼 − 𝛽𝑚)
𝛼=2.303A (3)
𝛽=2.303b ((
(4)
((
Where: λm is the annual rate of exceedence of magnitude M
earthquake; a and b are the constants derived from
regression analysis; Based on the seismicity characterization
of Surigao, A is 1.9130, b is 0.4677.
To determine the probability density function, the equation
developed by Kramer (1996) was used:
(5)
((
Where: ml and mu are the upper limit of magnitude range
and lower limit of magnitude range, respectively.
The earthquake sources was considered as linear, the rupture
length (L) must be determined, the equation developed by
Wells and Coppersmith (1994) was used:
log𝐿=0.74𝑀𝑤 −3.55 (6)
((
Where: L is the rupture length and Mw is the earthquake
moment magnitude.
The characterization of the distribution of source-to-site
distances associated with potential earthquakes was also
done, thereafter. The coordinates of the Surigao Fault was
garnered using the Google earth application.
It is also necessary to model the distribution of distances
from earthquakes to the site of interest to predict ground
shaking at a site. It is generally assumed that earthquakes
will occur with equal probability at any location on the fault
for a given earthquake source. It is generally simple to
identify the distribution of source-to-site distances using
only the geometry of the source given that locations are
uniformly distributed. The probability density function
(PDF) of R is determined by Equation 7.
(7)
((
Given the different parameters for the resulting distribution
of ground motion intensity as a function of earthquake
magnitude and distance can now be determined. The
attenuation models developed by Fukushima and Tanaka
(1990), shown on Equation 8, will be used but it will be
verified by the models developed by Donovan (1974),
shown on Equation 9, and Milne (1969), shown on Equation
10. The three models were compared in a graph, evidently
shown on Figure 1, the Fukushima and Tanaka Attenuation
Model gave a value in between Donovan’s and Milne’s.
2
 (8) Table 1 Occurrence factor qualitative and quantitative
description
a = 1.080 Exp (0.5M)/(R + 25)1.32 (9) Expressed
Qualitative Likelihood
a = 0.0069 exp (1.64 M)/{1.1 exp (1.1 M) + R } (10)
2 Level
Rating
Description
(POE)
in
Percentage
Where: A is the mean PHA value, R is the shortest distance Low
1/1,000- 0.1% or
between the site and the rupture and M is the surface wave 1 Low likelihood of
1/10,000 less
magnitude. occurrence

Moderate
1/100- 1% or less
2 Moderate likelihood of
1/1,000 > 1%
occurrence

High
3 High likelihood of >1/100 >1%
occurrence

3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Fig. 1 Comparison of Peak Acceleration
With the above information in place, we can now combine
uncertainties in earthquake size, location and ground motion
intensity, using a calculation known as the total probability
theorem.
𝑀𝑚𝑎𝑥
[𝑋 ≥ 𝑥] ≈ ∑𝑠𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑠 𝑖 𝜈𝑖 ∫
(11)
∫ [𝑋 ≥ 𝑥|𝑀, 𝑅]𝑚(𝑚)
𝑓𝑅|𝑀(𝑟|𝑚)𝑑𝑟𝑑𝑚 𝑀𝑜 𝑅|𝑀
Where: [X≥x] is the overall annual frequency that ground
motion at a site exceeds the chosen level X =x; vi is the
annual rate of occurrence of earthquakes on seismic source i
having magnitudes between Mo and Mmax; Mo is the
minimum magnitude of engineering significance; M max is the
maximum magnitude assumed to occur on the source; [X≥
x|M,R] is the conditional probability that the chosen ground
motion level is exceeded for a given magnitude M and
distance R; fm() is the probability density function of
earthquake magnitude; fR|M(r|m) is the probability density
function of distance from the earthquake source to the site.
The end result of the PSHA calculations will be a full
distribution of levels of ground shaking intensity, and their
associated rates of exceedance. The results can then be used
to identify a ground motion intensity having an acceptably
small probability of being exceeded.
Once the POE values were obtained for each structure or
bridge, such would then be classified according to their POE
values using Table 1 (Reising, 2014). The basis would be in
terms of the occurrence/probability for a disaster to happen.
3.1 Churches
Three Churches each for Surigao del Norte and Surigao del
Sur will be subjected for the site specific Probabilistic
Seismic Hazard Analysis.
Given the location of Catholic Church of Dayano, Mainit
and St. Nicholas of Tolentino Catholic Church, these
Churches are expected to be in the High Priority. Some of
the churches are quite old and may be damaged if ground
shaking will occur. Their belfry may collapse while cracks
may also form in the walls of the main structure. More
danger can occur due to falling structures and debris once
earthquake may occur. Table 2 shows the characterization of
the selected Churches in Surigao based on the priorities.
Table 2 Characterization of selected Churches in Surigao
CHURCHES
High
 Catholic Church of Dayano, Mainit
 St. Nicholas of Tolentino Catholic Church
Moderate
 Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints
 Lanuza Catholic Church
 San Agustin’s Church
 Sto. Nino Parish Church
Low
N/A
3.2 Universities
With a number of educational institutions in Surigao and an
active Surigao fault present, the province becomes more
vulnerable to seismic hazards. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard
Analysis (PSHA) will quantify the uncertainties on the
location, size, and resulting shaking intensity of future

3
seismic motions, and combine them to produce an explicit building was known to likely fail at a particular ground
description of the distribution of future shaking that may motion level, it can be reconsidered, and economic
occur in Surigao del Norte and Surigao del Sur. With these considerations can be revised.
major universities/colleges around central Surigao, there is
an increased rate of endangerment for the individuals within 3.3 Bridges
the vicinity during seismic activities thus, making this one of
the focuses of this PSHA application. With the idea that there is an active fault in Surigao, this
poses a threat on the lives of the people in Surigao. There
Table 3 Characterization of selected Universities in Surigao are a total of 208 bridges in Surigao which are vital to the
UNIVERSITIES lives of the people and the economy; such bridges are
considered lifelines. Considering that there are 208 bridges
High and that these are all near an active seismic source creates
 Caraga Institute of Technology the need for risk assessment of these bridges to seismic
 Northeastern Mindanao Colleges hazards.
 Philippine Women's University
 San Sebastian College Surigao Extension Table 4 Characterization of selected Bridges in Surigao
 St. Ignatius Loyola Computer College BRIDGES
 St. Jude Thaddeus Institute of Technology
 St. Michael College High
 Surigao Del Norte College of Agriculture and  Amoslog Br.
Technology  Banahaw Br.
 Surigao Doctor's College  Magtiaco Br.
 Surigao State College of Technology  Orok Br.
 TESDA Accredited Competency Assessment  Sabang Br. 3
Center Moderate
 Tesda Provincial Training Center - Surigao City
 Adlay Br.
Moderate  Asinan Br.
 Bucas Grande Foundation College  Bantoon Br.
 De La Salle John Bosco College  Biga-an Br.
 Hinatuan Southern College  Habuyo Br.
 Siargao Island Institute of Technology  Kaayongan Br.
 Siargao National College of School and  Kaduyukan Br.
Technology  Kayawyawan Br. 1
 St Theresa College  Maglambing Br.
 Surigao del Sur Institute of Technology  Nasipit Br.
 Surigao Del Sur Polytechnic State College-  Tagasaka Br.
Lianga  Tagupoon Br.
 Surigao del Sur State University - Cantilan  Taytay Br.
Campus Low
 Surigao del Sur State University - Lianga
Campus  Mabua Br.
 Surigao Sur Colleges  San Isidro Br.
 TESDA Accredited Competency Assessment
Center Shown in Table 4, in totality, all the bridges were
categorized into their respective risk ratings. Most of the
Low bridges from the Surigao del Norte were classified under
N/A High Risk with a few of the bridges which belonged to the
2nd district being classified under Low Risk, while all
bridges located in Surigao del Sur were classified under
Based on the results shown on Table 3, Caraga Institute of
Medium Risk. This can also be observed in Figure 8c.
Technology and Surigao del Sur Institute of Technology has
wherein most of the POE curves are higher for Surigao del
the highest Probability of Exceedance for Surigao del Norte
Norte bridges. As previously mentioned, the reason for
and Surigao del Sur, respectively. Structures of these
having High Risk for Surigao del Norte bridges is the
institutions must be investigated and retrofitted before any
proximity of the said area to the fault line.
destructive seismic activity may just occur. Consequently,
majority of the PoE’s of the schools are almost the same
In Surigao del Sur, the most susceptible to seismic hazards
since they are built within close ranges. Likewise, these
would be Nasipit Bridge, while the least susceptible would
schools must also be inspected and should be subjected for
be Tagasaka Bridge. On the other hand, Surigao del Norte,
necessary preventive measures. If a particular type of
the most susceptible would be Magtiaco Bridge, while the

4
least one would be Mabua bridge. As mentioned earlier and  San Lorenzo Ruiz Hospital
as observed in Figure 8c, because of the separation of the  San Miguel Community Hospital
two districts in Surigao del Norte, when comparing all the  Siargao District Hospital
bridges, the bridges that are considered most and least  St. Vincent de Paul College
susceptible in Surigao del Norte would still apply for the  Sta. Monica District Hospital
totality of Surigao’s bridges wherein Magtiaco Bridge would
still have the highest POE while Mabua Bridge would still It can be seen in Table 5 that 4 hospitals are categorized in
have the lowest POE. high seismic hazards. Some of the hospitals, while having a
low seismic hazard, was offset by the potential losses
3.4 Hospitals incurred by the high capacity, high level facilities. Again,
most of the other hospitals aside from the few mentioned
The largest hospital in CARAGA is found in Surigao del remain classified as “low”, because of their relatively sparse
Norte, being the CARAGA Regional Hospital. It has a Level capacity and low earthquake hazard.
3 accreditation from DOH, effectively the highest
accreditation the department awards. Andres Soriano 3.5 Municipal Halls
Memorial Hospital is the Level 3 hospital serving Surigao
del Sur. Surigao, in total, has over 28 hospitals scattered When all the possible earthquakes and magnitudes have
throughout the region. These hospitals are some of the been considered in the Surigao Provinces, shown on Figure
lifelines of the region, structures of utmost priority. 8 is the Probability of Exceedance for Surigao del Norte.
Each municipality is grouped into: High, Medium and Low
The Philippines is on the rise, economically speaking. The Priority based on their Probability of Exceedance and
country and its government must keep building damage at a considering their total population.
minimum and avoid other expenditures. Structures must be
designed with safety to ensure the continuing development Table 6 Characterization of Municipal Halls in Surigao del
of the country and its sustainability (Oreta, 2006). As such, Norte
the appropriate measures must be taken to ensure the safety MUNICIPAL HALLS
of these health structures.
High
Table 5 Characterization of selected Hospitals in Surigao  Alegria
HOSPITALS  Bacuag
 Claver
High  Gigaquit
 Andres Soriano Memorial Hospital Cooperative  Mainit
 CARAGA Regional Hospital  Malimono
 Miranda Family Hospital  Placer
 Surigao Medical Center  San Francisco
Moderate  Sison
 Surigao City
 Adela Serra Ty Memorial Medical Center
 Tagana-an
 Aras Asan Hospital Inc.
 Tubod
 Bislig District Hospital
Moderate
Low
 Dapa
 Albor District Hospital
 Del Carmen
 Cortes Municipal Hospital
 Pilar
 Del Carmen District Hospital
 San Benito
 Dinagat District Hospital
 Socorro
 Family Medical Clinic
 Gigaquit Municipal Hospital Low
 Hinatuan District Hospital  Burgos
 Isidro M. Olan Sr. Memorial Clinic and Hospital,  General Luna
Inc.  San Isidro
 Lianga District Hospital  Santa Monica
 Lingig Community Hospital
 Loreto District Hospital With the location of Malimono and Mainit, the Probability
 Madrid District Hospital of Exceedance for this municipality is highest, since their
 Mainit Medicare Community Hospital location is very near the Surigao Fault Line. Shown on Table
 Marihatag District Hospital 6, joining them in the High Priority category are the
 Pilar District Hospital following municipalities: Alegria, Bacuag, Claver, Gigaquit,
 Placer District Hospital Mainit, Malimono, Placer, San Francisco, Sison, Surigao

5
City, Tagana-an, and Tubod. The budget allotment for these 4 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
municipalities in Disaster Response should be looked into
since the probability of exceedance for these municipalities With enough knowledge on the seismicity of Surigao Fault,
are high, and frequent ground motions are usually felt in structural engineers can ensure that their designed structures
these areas. can withstand a given level of ground shaking at Surigao del
norte and Surigao del Sur, while maintaining a desired level
Furthermore, Surigao fault also traces to the province of of performance. There is uncertainty on the location, size,
Surigao del Sur, which has 19 municipalities. When all the and resulting shaking intensity of future seismic motions in
possible earthquakes and magnitudes have been considered the said provinces but with the use of Probabilistic Seismic
in the Surigao Provinces. Each municipality of Surigao del Hazard Analysis (PSHA), it will quantify the uncertainties,
Sur is grouped into: High, Medium and Low Priority based and combine them to produce an explicit description, such as
on their Probability of Exceedance and considering their the Probability of Exceedance, of the distribution of future
total population, shown on Table 7. shaking that may occur in Surigao del Norte’s and Surigao
del Sur’s Churches, Universities, Bridges, Hospitals and
Table 7 Characterization of Municipal Halls in Surigao del Municipal Halls. Once PSHA of the different infrastructures
Sur is understood, it can accommodate the needs of different
MUNICIPAL HALLS users.
High It is recommended to apply the acceleration for the structure
N/A in consideration, spectral acceleration, which is the amount
of earthquake force the structure experience, for
Moderate corresponding values of period is determined. A response
 Barobo hazard curve must be generated for the reliability analysis of
 Bayabas the the various structures for the following periods: 0.1, 0.2,
 Bislig 0.3, 0.5, 1, 2, 3 and 4.seconds.
 Cagwait
 Cantilan ACKNOWLEDGMENT
 Carmen The researchers would like to thank their family, friends, and
 Carrascal colleagues for their support.
 Cortes
 Hinatuan REFERENCES
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