Copyright Anish Roychowdhury 2020

COVID 19 : SPREAD in US and EU ; With

PREDICTIONS FOR US for next 7 days
(As of 24th March 2020)
1. Background
The number of confirmed novel coronavirus cases in India has gone up to 114, according to
the health ministry. Covid-19, which has globally infected over 1.5 lakh people, is likely to
cause more shutdowns across the country as more states rush to stop the virus from
spreading. While 13 people who were infected by the virus have recovered in India, the global
situation still paints a grim picture. The death toll due to new coronavirus has shot up sharply
in Italy, which has now become the country worst affected by the virus outbreak after China.
Iran, too, faces heightened risk as total death toll in the country has crossed 700 while there
are close to 14,000 confirmed cases. Besides taking precautions to prevent the spread of the
virus domestically, India is also actively rescuing its nationals stuck in the high-affected zone.

The WHO , Governments of the world have made open source several datasets related to
COVID19 for the Scientific community to study analyse and maybe come up with possible
measures to prevent or stop the spread of the same

2. Objective of current study

The current study aims to compare the spread of COVID 19 in EU countries and US and tries
to predict the Possible cases in US in the next 7 days. We also try to see how the countries
compare after reaching 100 cases. We try to fit a 3rd degree polynomial curve for US post
reaching 100 cases and use the fitted curve to predict ahead next 7 days post 24 th March 2020
and see how the predicted scenarios look like

3. Acknowledgements
John Hopkins University

4. Data Source

5. https://github.com/datasets/covid-19/tree/master/dataGITHUB

6. GITHUB Source code

https://github.com/anishiisc/Codes-and-Shares

7. Visualization studies
 COVID Spread compared US vs EU
 EU vs US nos of days with greater than 100 cases
 Fitting 3rd Degree polynomial to predict US COVID RISE
 COVID Spread in US as of 24th March 2020
 COVID Prediction till 1st April 2002 in US
 Comparative curves Current Vs Prediction till 1st April 2020
Copyright Anish Roychowdhury 2020

COVID Spread compared US vs EU

EU vs US : number of days with Greater than 100 cases

Copyright Anish Roychowdhury 2020

Fitting 3rd Degree polynomial to model US COVID RISE

COVID Spread in US as of 24th March 2020(50,000 cases)

Copyright Anish Roychowdhury 2020

COVID PREDICTION in US till 1st April 2020 (reaching 175,000)

COVID PREDICTION for 1st April VS Actual till 24th March in US 2020 (reaching
175,000)