THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE AND RAIN DATA ON IRRIGATION

REQIUREMENTS IN SEMI ARID AREAS

Katerina Donevska,1 Stanislava Dodeva2

(1)
University "Sts Cyril and Methodius", Faculty of Civil Engineering
- Skopje
(2)
Public Water Management Enterprise "Water Management of
Macedonia" - Skopje

ABSTRACT

This paper deals with the impact of the climate and rain data on irrigation
requirements. Chronological period of 30 years (from 1960 until 1990) has been considered,
concerning monthly and annual quantities of precipitation, average minimum and average
maximum temperature, average monthly humidity, average monthly wind speed and duration
of sunshine hours for the main meteorological station in Bitola (Republic of Macedonia).
Referent and crop evapotranspiration has been calculated for period of thirty years according
to FAO’s CROPWAT computer program. Irrigation requirements for spring wheat have been
calculated for the same period. The influence of the proposed methods for calculating the
effective rain on irrigation requirements has been presented. Statistical analysis of the annual
precipitation has led to some conclusions about the climate change in this part of Macedonia.
Irrigation requirement data are of major importance in identification, design and
operation of irrigation projects. They influence on the irrigation system parameters and on the
ability of the system to operate under various conditions. Conclusions and recommendations
for using an appropriate method for calculating effective rain and irrigation requirements
especially in semi arid regions have been presented in the paper.

1. INTRODUCTION

The global climate changes are followed with increasing of the average annual
temperatures and decreasing of precipitation, especially in the warm part of the year. The
change of these two climate parameters is one of the reasons for more frequent draught
periods. The used term for draught is linked to atmospheric, actually meteorological -
climatological draught. The paper analyses the influence of the draught period appearance
over statistical parameters in the series of annual sums of precipitation in semi-arid area.
Additionally, the influence of the selected method for calculation of effective rain for required
irrigation water is analysed.
1
Assistant, MSc, CEng, University "Sts Cyril and Methodius", Faculty of Civil Engineering - Skopje,
Department of Irrigation, Partizanski odredi 24, PF 560, 1000 Skopje, Republic of Macedonia, Fax: (389 02)
117 367, E-mail: donevska@stobi.ga.ukim.edu.mk
2
Manager of Development Department, MSc, CEng, Public Water Management Enterprise "Water
Management of Macedonia" - Skopje, III Makedonska brigada 10, 1000 Skopje, Republic of Macedonia,
Fax: (389 02) 236 564, E-mail: dodeva@water.org.mk
 The dominant climates in the Republic of Macedonia are continental and modified
Mediterranean and on the higher areas mountain climate. In the agricultural regions the first
two types of climate dominate in a very specific combination, which has unfavourable
influence on the precipitation regime (quantities, spatial and time distribution), so that some
of the regions are the driest regions in Europe. According to the rain factor most of the
regions are characterized as arid, while others as semi-arid. The northwestern agricultural
regions are semi-humid (in certain years) but they participate in the total arable area with very
small percentage. The temperatures and sunshine are very suitable for growing of many type
of crops. But, high temperatures in the summer period which have maximum > 350C have
negative impact on crops development, especially when they are followed by low relative
humidity, dry winds and small quantity of rain. Under these conditions, consumption of water
is increased, high deficit is noted and water limits the yields. There is a general characteristic
of precipitations for the most important agricultural regions: low annual sum and not
favourable time and spatial distribution. The average annual sum of precipitation in the
Republic of Macedonia is 733 mm, while for the catchment area of river Vardar 700 mm. The
central part of the country has lowest average annual sum of precipitation of only 400 mm.
The total arable area in the Republic of Macedonia is approximately 667.000 ha. If
fully constructed, the irrigation schemes could irrigate approximately 400.000 ha, i.e. 60% of
the total arable area. So far, about 106 smaller and bigger irrigation schemes have been built
covering an area of 163.693 ha. But actual possible for irrigation are 126.617 ha.
The level of efficiency of the irrigation schemes in the period from 1987 to 1995
decreases from 65,5% for the year 1987 to 30,9% for the year 1995. In this period there is a
tendency of continues decreasing of the areas both, planned and irrigated. It is assumed that in
certain years, beside administrative and operational difficulties, the decreasing of the
efficiency level is due to the climatic conditions in the vegetation period.
The low coefficient of the irrigation schemes utilisation is due to insufficient
maintenance of the distributive network. The water losses are estimated on 20% only in the
main canals. The selected irrigation methods contribute to the total water losses in the
schemes; actually have influence over the irrigation schemes utilisation coefficient.
Considering the climatic condition in the agricultural regions (precipitation deficit in
the vegetation period) and the growing gap between the irrigation water requirements and the
available water quantities, there is a need for saving of irrigation water. Additionally to the
necessary measures (rehabilitation of the distributive network and reduction of the water
losses and selection of irrigation methods which save the irrigation water) there is a need for
realistic assessment of the irrigation water requirements for specific climatic conditions. The
paper presents critical approach to the applied methods for irrigation water requirements
determination. Special attention is given to the influence of the applied method for
determination of the effective rain for irrigation water requirements in semi-arid areas.

2. MATERIALS AND METHOD OF WORK

In order to analyse the influence of the main climatic parameters (temperature and
precipitation) and their change over irrigation water requirements, calculations for the
required irrigation water are performed for the local conditions in Pelagonia valley. The
valley is surrounded by high mountains form the east, north and west side and lower
mountains from the south side. Due to this surrounding, dominant climate on the whole area
is the moderate continental with cold winters and hot summers. This region is selected
because of the irrigation scheme Strezevo, which covers 20.200 ha and it is one of the largest
irrigation schemes in the Republic of Macedonia, and also because of the semi-arid character
of the area. The analyses are based on several climatic parameters and monthly and annual
sums of precipitations for the main meteorological station Bitola.
In order to test the homogeneity of the chronological series, statistic processing of
series on annual sums of precipitations was performed. The homogeneity is tested by the
basic statistical parameters: mean value of the series as the most important statistical
characteristic and dispersion, which shows the variations during the time period. The standard
statistical tests such as Student t-test and Normalized z-test, are used.
The irrigation water requirements are defined as a difference between the water
requirements of the crop and the income of the water from effective rain. The water
requirements for the crop are defined with the following equation:
ETc = ETo ⋅ k …………………………….. (1.)
where: ETc-crop evapotranspiration
ETo-referent evapotranspiration
k -crop coefficient
The referent evapotranspiration is calculated by modified Penman method, using
computer program CROPWAT. For calculation of the evapotranspiration of the crops, the
values of the crop coefficient are taken from the literature (Doorenbos J., Pruitt W. O., 1992).
For determination of the effective rain, the formulas, which are incorporated in the computer
program CROPWAT, are used.

3. RESULTS
3.1. Air Temperature
Based on the available monthly data (average monthly, minimal average monthly and
maximal average monthly), the average annual air temperature for the period of 30 years
(1960-1990) is 110C, the average annual value of the average monthly minimal temperature is
50C, while the average annual value of the average monthly maximal temperature is 16,80C.
The monthly air temperatures are presented on Fig.1.

average monthly average monthly minimal average monthly maximal

35.0

30.0

25.0
temperature ( 0 C)

20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0

-5.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-10.0

month

Fig. 1. Monthly air temperatures

Considering the average monthly temperatures for the time period of 30 years, it can
be concluded that the second half of the year is warmer then the first one. From the
temperature point of view, both periods are suitable for growing of agricultural crops. In the
winter period, up to the beginning of April, there are temperatures lower then 00C, which can
damage the crops.
3.2. Precipitations
In the calculations, data on monthly sums of precipitations for period of 36 years
(from 1960 to 1996) is used. The conclusions after the analysis of the monthly and annual
sums of precipitations for the defined time period are the following:
• The average precipitations for the period of 36 years are 585 mm. The highest annual
sum of precipitation is 842 mm in 1981, while the minimum annual sum of 365 mm
was in 1977.
• The average precipitations in the vegetation period are 255 mm. In this period highest
precipitations were in 1976, 429 mm, and this year is the wettest year. The minimum
precipitations were in 1965, only 106 mm and this year is the driest year.
• It is necessary to mention that in some months there was no rain at all (July 1968), or
minimum rain sums are recorded (0,70 mm in July 1974, 1,9 mm in July 1978,
3,90mm in August 1985, 3,20 mm in August 1986 etc.). In August minimum sums of
precipitations are recorded, with average 33,55 mm.
• Precipitation distribution during the year is variable. The ratio between the
precipitation sum in vegetation and out of the vegetation period is from 3,45 for year
1976 up to 0,24 for year 1962.
The annual precipitation sums and the precipitation sums in the vegetation period for
the analyzed period of 36 years are presented on the Fig.2.

annual in v e g e t a t io n p e rio d

1 0 0 0 .0 0

8 0 0 .0 0
precipitation (mm)

6 0 0 .0 0

4 0 0 .0 0

2 0 0 .0 0

0 .0 0
1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993

Fig 2. Annual sums of precipitation and sums of precipitation

in the vegetation period for the time period of 36 years
>From the second half of the eighty's, periods of atmospheric droughts are recorded.
Due to this fact, the series of the annual sums of precipitation is divided into two sub-series:
first one, from 1961 to 1983, and the second, from 1984 to 1996. The general statistical
parameters of these two sub-series are presented in the Table 1.
Table 1. Statistical parameters of the series of annual sums of precipitation
Series 1 (1961-1983) Series 2 (1984-1996)
Mean value 599,4 558,9
Variance 18158,3 7004,9
Standard deviation 134,8 83,7
Number of elements 23 13

In order to investigate the homogeneity of the time series, i.e. whether both series
belong to the same population, Null hypothesis is tested. The testing was performed by
application of Normalized z-test and Student t-test, for the adopted level of test significance
0,05. With the both tests, the null hypothesis is accepted as true, i.e. the data belongs to the
same population.
3.3. Classification of the Climate
The temperature in correlation with the precipitation gives the main climatic
characteristics.
Under USA's conditions, the irrigation is necessary if the annual precipitations sum is
lower then 375 mm, if the sum is from 375 up to 750 mm, there is a need for additional
irrigation and if the annual precipitations sum is more then 750 mm, than the irrigation is
needed only in exceptional cases. The average annual precipitations sum for the
meteorological station Bitola is 585 mm, so, it can be concluded that additional irrigation is
required for the area.
In order to define the need for irrigation in accordance with the local climatic
conditions, there are several indexes, factors and coefficients, which are given in the literature
(Srebrenović D., 1986). The values of these factors are calculated on a base of data on
temperature and precipitation for the meteorological station Bitola.
According Vilensky, the index of humidity I depends on precipitations and evapotranspiration
according to the equation:

P
I= …………………………………….(2.)
E
where: P- average annual precipitations (mm); E-average annual evaporation (mm).
The average annual referent evapotranspiration is calculated by Penman method and it
is 2,7 mm/d. The index of humidity I for the region of Pelagonija is estimated on 0,60. In
accordance to the classification proposed by Vilensky, the climate is in the group of semi-arid
climate, where irrigation is needed.
Method of Lang is used for estimation of the climate humidity with the precipitation
factor KF, which is given with the following formulae, as a division between the average
annual precipitations P (mm) and average annual temperature T (oC).

P .....................................................(3.)
KF =
T
For the area of Bitola KF=53,2, which means that there is a need for additional
irrigation. The disadvantage of this method is not considering the precipitation distribution by
months, especially during the vegetation period. The monthly precipitation KFm takes into
consideration the monthly distribution of precipitations and it can be calculated with the
following equation:

Pm ................................................(4.)
KFm =
t

where: Pm -average monthly precipitations (mm); t- average monthly temperature (oC).

The classification of the climate and need for irrigation are defined in accordance to
the monthly precipitation factor. For this particular case the values of the monthly
precipitation factor KFm for the vegetation period are given in the Table 2.
Table 2. Values of the monthly precipitation factor KFm defined upon
the average monthly precipitations for time period of 36 years
Month IV V VI VII VIII IX
Pm 47,3 59,7 38,0 40,4 33,6 37,9
t 11,1 15,7 19,5 21,7 21,1 17,2
KFm 4,3 3,8 2,0 1,9 1,6 2,2
The average monthly precipitation factor for the vegetation period is 2,6, which means
that there is a need for regular irrigation in this period.
One of the simplest schemes for classification of the climatic regimes is based on the
index of draught IM proposed by De Martonne. This indicator is presenting the relation
between the precipitations and temperature and it is given by the equation:

P
IM = .....................................................(5.)
T + 10
where: IM- annual index of draught; T- average annual temperature (0C); P- average
annual precipitations (mm).
Using the data on annual values for the considered area of IM= 27.8 it can be
concluded that the irrigation is not strongly needed. If the monthly values of the index of
drought in the vegetation period IMm are estimated, then with the following equation, the
results presented in the Table 3 are obtained:

12 ⋅ Pm ....……....................................(6.)
IM m =
t + 10
Table 3. Monthly values of drought index
Month IV V VI VII VIII IX
IMm 27,0 27,9 15,5 15,3 12,9 16,7
The average value of IMm for the vegetation period is 19,3, which means that the irrigation is
favorable.
3.4. Relative humidity, sunshine insolation, winds
The average monthly relative humidity (in %), average monthly duration of sunshine
hours (hours), total duration of sunshine insolation (hours) and average monthly wind speed
(m/s) for the time period of 30 years (1961-1990) for the Main Meteorological Station (MMS)
Bitola are given in the Table 4:
Table 4. Average monthly relative humidity, duration of sunshine hours, wind
speed, total duration of sunshine insolation and referent evapotranspiration ETo for MMS
„Bitola“
Month I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII average
Relative humidity
(%) 82,6 78,1 70,9 64,6 64,8 60.2 55,5 57,1 64,2 72,0 79,0 83,2 69,3
Sunshine hours (h)
2,6 3,8 5,0 6,6 8,1 9.7 10,8 10,1 8,0 5,7 3,7 2,4 6,4
Wind speed (m/s)
1,4 1,8 2,1 2,2 1,9 1.9 1,7 1,5 1,3 1,4 1,4 1,3 1,7
Total sunshine
insolation (h) 81,1 106,9 155,2 199,2 250,5 291.3 334,0 312,2 241,0 176,5 111,1 75,9 194,6
ETo
(mm/d) 0,6 1,0 1,9 3,1 4,1 5., 5,4 4,8 3,2 1,8 0,9 0,5 2,7
 >From the table 4 can be concluded that the air humidity is the lowest in the summer
months when the air temperatures are highest, and the precipitations lowest.
The average monthly duration of the sunshine hours has the highest value in July (10,8
h), while the total annual sunshine hours duration is 2334,9 hours.
For MMS "Bitola" cloudiness is visually monitored and it is expressed in values
between 0 (clear sky) and 10 (100% cloudy). The average annual value of the cloudiness for
the period from 1961 to 1990 is 5,31.
3.5. Referent Evapotranspiration
The average monthly referent evapotranspiration calculation is based on data on
climatic parameters using computer program CROPWAT (Penman method). The results are
presented in the Table 4.
Table 5. Annual irrigation water requirements for the wheat during
time period of 30 years
Concrete percentage USDA SCS method Relative
year ETc Pef Required Pef Required difference
(mm) water (mm) water (%)
(mm) (mm)
1961 281,9 75,9 206 116,7 165,3 19,8
1962 307,3 63,5 249,5 98,2 226,3 9,3
1963 256,8 112,3 147 162,9 105,5 28,2
1964 260,4 100,1 160,3 141,7 118,7 26,0
1965 270,5 50,9 219,6 80,3 193,3 12,0
1966 281,2 82,6 198,6 125,4 158,7 20,1
1967 275,2 107,2 168,1 157,1 122,2 27,3
1968 301,9 110,6 191,3 160,4 141,5 26,0
1969 324,5 45,7 286,7 71,3 273,8 4,5
1970 282,6 84,4 198,1 127,8 155,8 21,4
1971 317,6 50,5 267,7 80,2 242,3 9,5
1972 305,5 86,7 239 128,7 219,4 8,2
1973 312,7 37,3 276,2 59,8 257,9 6,6
1974 270,8 95,1 178,3 144,9 138,8 22,2
1975 284,8 89,7 195 137 153,1 21,5
1976 265,2 145,1 123,7 206,6 79 36,1
1977 315,8 58,3 257,5 91,4 224,4 12,9
1978 298,2 94,7 223,3 139,1 201,7 9,7
1979 280,5 131,9 164,2 186,9 131,1 20,2
1980 271,3 89,7 181,6 132,7 142,2 21,7
1981 296,2 87,5 219,8 133,4 187,7 14,6
1982 289,5 139,6 196,3 195,5 165,5 15,7
1983 291,3 111,2 181,5 162,2 137,9 24,0
1984 305,1 59,7 254,2 92,4 233,6 8,1
1985 298,7 96,3 204,7 142,4 170,6 16,7
1986 276 108,7 167,3 155 121 27,7
1987 315,6 58,9 260,8 92,6 236,7 9,2
1988 309,5 46,8 262,7 73,8 237,7 9,5
1989 268,3 94,7 173,6 140,9 127,3 26,7
1990 293,9 53 241,3 83,3 219,5 9,0
 In the process of calculation of the irrigation water requirements for the spring wheat, the
effective rains were defined using the method of concrete rain percentage. Due to the local climatic
conditions, precipitation characteristics, unknown pedological soil parameters and recommendation
from the literature, it is adopted that the effective rain should be 60% from the total rain. In order to
examine the impact of the method for calculation of the effective rain upon the calculated quantity of
required water for irrigation, the effective rain are also calculated with the method of USDA SCS,
which is a part of the computer program CROPWAT. The irrigation water requirements are calculated
using the program CROPWAT for time period of 30 years as a sum of the calculated water
requirements in decades.

4. DISCUSSION

Statistical processing of data on annual sums of precipitation for the MMS "Bitola"
shows that there are drought periods. In the second half of eighty's, decreasing of the average
value of the annual precipitations is recorded. With the statistical analysis, it is confirmed that
this difference is not significant; i.e. all data belong to the same population.
The climate is classified according to the data on temperatures and precipitations and
the need for irrigation is stated. The referent evapotranspiration and evapotranspiration on
wheat is calculated. The influence of the applied method for calculation of the effective rain
upon the annual water requirements for wheat is investigated. The analysis show that for
constant value of the annual evapotranspiration of the wheat and precipitation sum in the
vegetation period, the application of different method for calculation of effective rain, leads to
difference in the annual irrigation water requirements from 36 to 4%.
The analysis show that using the method of USDA SCS the effective rains are
approximately 90% of the total rains for certain period, while using the method from
FAO/AGLW the effective rains are less then 50% of total. It is concluded that the percentage
of effective rain calculated by the method of USDA SCS are too high for semi-arid areas. On
the other hand, the monthly variations of the precipitations and appearance of precipitation
sums less then 10 mm in some months, exclude the application of the method developed by
FAO/AGLW in semi-arid regions. The results of the research lead to the need for application
of locally defined and verified methods for calculation of effective rain.

5. CONCLUSIONS

Irrigation water requirements data are applicable in every phase of irrigation schemes
planning: project identification and preliminary planning, irrigation scheme designing and
operation. In the conditions of limited water resources, adopting of higher values for irrigation
water requirements leads to reduction of the size of possible irrigated area. On the other hand,
adoption of lower irrigation water requirements leads to irrigation with deficit and possibility
for yields reduction. Beside this, lower irrigation water requirements in the designing phase
can result in smaller dimensions of the irrigation network. In this case, the capacity of the
irrigation network would be limiting factor in operational phase. The results obtained by the
analysis for the influence of the selected method for calculation of the effective rain upon the
quantity of the irrigation water requirements (with relative difference of 36% in some years)
stress the importance of the considered problem.
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