Nielsen COVID-19 Impact March16th PDF

COVID-19 OUTBREAK
Nielsen Investigation of Impacts on FMCG trends

A holistic approach across the Globe
Update: March 16, 2020

This artwork was created using Nielsen data.
Copyright © 2020 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute.
CONTENT
WHAT’S GOING ON?

COVID-19: WHERE WE STAND
HOW WOULD IT IMPACT?
COVID-19: IMPLICATIONS
FROM DIFFERENT MARKETS
WHAT’S NEXT?
COVID-19 FMCG RECOVERY
2
>169K CASES IN 118 COUNTRIES AND GROWING…
The World Health Organisation has raised the global risk level to “VERY HIGH”
2020The
Copyright©©2019
Copyright NielsenCompany
TheNielsen , LLC.
Company(US), Confidential
LLC. andand
Confidential proprietary.
proprietary. not not
Do Do distribute.
distribute.
Photo credit: Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://infographics.channelnewsasia.com/covid-19/map.html 3
COVID-19 KEEPS ON SPREADING
Italy leads with (24,747) registered cases followed by Spain (7,845) and Germany (5,813)
2020The
Copyright©©2019
Copyright NielsenCompany
TheNielsen , LLC.
LLC. andand
Do Do distribute.
distribute.
Real time 14/03/2020 https://infographics.channelnewsasia.com/covid-19/map.html 4

COVID-19 IMPACTS
Important implications to consider in 2020
Benchmarks across markets

COVID-19
“NIELSEN’S INITIAL INVESTIGATION ACROSS MAJOR
COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD HAS FOUND SIGNIFICANT
distribute.
distribute.
SPIKES IN THE HOARDING OF EMERGENCY SUPPLIES...”

proprietary.
proprietary.
andand not not
Do Do
• Across countries, Nielsen has recorded record-breaking sales of health-safety

Confidential
Confidential
products, such as medical masks and sanitizers, but we’ve also seen a ripple effect
triggering broader consumer purchase behaviors as the number of reported
LLC.
, LLC.
COVID-19 cases increase around the world.

Company(US),
NielsenCompany
• There were identified six threshold levels, based on early indicators across markets
TheNielsen
(though at different times as the virus outbreak evolves at different rates in different
geographies). Each one correlates with different levels of consumption, but there are
2020The
Copyright©©2019
some common timing elements, which are primarily driven by news cycles.
Copyright
6
COVID-19 IS CHANGING CONSUMERS BEHAVIOR
% survey participants, February 2020:
Vietnam Italy
proprietary.
andand Do Do
proprietary. distribute.
distribute.
not not
50% reduced 94% check news

Confidential
their frequency 45% stock more at least once a day

Confidential
of visiting stores food at home

Company(US),
NielsenCompany
TheNielsen LLC.
, LLC.
25% increased 25% reduced

2020The
their online their OOH 35% reduced

Copyright©©2019
shopping consumption eating out of home

Copyright
7
PERSONAL HYGIENE & PRESERVED FOOD ARE DRIVING FMCG
Value Sales change % vs average February 2019:
Singapore Vietnam Italy France

distribute.
distribute.
+162% -32% +67%

not not
Multi- Chocolate Noodles

Do Do
vitamins
proprietary.
proprietary.
+40% +112% +33%

+24% -23% Frozen Pharma
Rice
+100%
andand
Noodles Beer & Food Hygiene

Lager
Confidential
Pasta & Canned Food

Confidential
+22% +78%
-17% Mouth +29% +29%
Frozen Canned
Wash
LLC.
Packaged Ice-cream Hand Soap

Food
, LLC.
Company(US),
Food
+45%
NielsenCompany
+528% -31% Personal

Liquid Make-up Wash +24% +25%
Thermometers Pasta
TheNielsen
Antiseptic
+70% +40% +11%
Pet
2020The
Cereals Bottled
+35%
Copyright©©2019
+145% -25% Water Food

Lip Care Personal
Wet Wipes
Wash
Copyright
8
GLOBAL TRENDS TO CAPITALIZE ON
andand
Confidential
Do Do distribute.
distribute.
Personal
LLC.
Stockpiling supplies E-Commerce Tourism, aviation,

, LLC.
Company(US),
Pharma Hygiene transportation

NielsenCompany
Canned goods, flour, pasta, People are trying to reduce Rapid growth on all The most affected industries
TheNielsen
bottled water, cereals their exposure to others markets, especially in the causing logistic challenge
affected countries
2020The
Copyright©©2019
Copyright
9
6 KEY CONSUMER BEHAVIOR THRESHOLDS IDENTIFIED
AS THE CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK EVOLVES
#1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6
Proactive Health- Reactive Health Pantry Preparation Quarantined Living Restricted Living Living a New Normal
Minded Buying Management Preparation
distribute.
CONSUMER BEHAVIOR SHIFTS

distribute.
Interest rises in Prioritize products Pantry stockpiling of Increased online Severely restricted People return to daily
not not
Do Do
products that support essential to virus shelf-stable foods and shopping, a decline in shopping trips, online routines (work, school,
proprietary.
overall maintenance containment, health a broader assortment store visits, rising out- fulfillment is limited, etc.) but operate with a
proprietary.
of health and and public safety. E.g. of health-safety of-stocks, strains on price concerns rise as renewed cautiousness
wellness. face masks products; spike in the supply chain. limited stock availability about health.
andand
store visits; growing impacts pricing in some Permanent shifts in

Confidential
basket sizes. cases. supply chain, the use

Confidential
of e-commerce and
hygiene practices.
LLC.
, LLC.
COVID-19 EVENT MARKERS

Company(US),
NielsenCompany
Minimal localized First local transmission Multiple cases of local Localized COVID-19 Mass cases of COVID- COVID-19 quarantines
cases of COVID-19 with no link to other transmission and emergency actions. 19. Communities lift beyond
generally linked to an location + first COVID- multiple deaths linked Percentage of people ordered into lockdown. region/country’s most-
TheNielsen
arrival from another 19 related death/s. to COVID-19. diagnosed continues affected hotspots and
infected country. to increase. life starts to return to
2020The
normal.
Copyright©©2019
Copyright
10
COVID-19 AROUND THE
GLOBE
Benchmarks across markets

GREECE: INITIAL PROGRESSION OF COVID-CONCERN FROM
BEHAVIOR THRESHOLDS 1 – 2
Greek Weekly Sales Growth Trend vs. Year-ago
FEB. 27
First incidence of COVID-19
#2 – REACTIVE HEALTH
JAN. 7 FEB MANAGEMENT
China reports novel
distribute.
coronavirus.
Confidential
andand Do Do
not not
#1 – PROACTIVE HEALTH-MINDED BUYING

Company(US),
NielsenCompany
TheNielsen LLC.
, LLC.
JAN FEB MAR

2020The
Copyright©©2019
RICE HOUSEHOLD CLEANERS CLEANING WIPES BAR & LIQUID SOAP

Copyright
Source: Nielsen Retail Measurement Services, Total Greece Supermarkets +Superettes From week ending 'W 05/01/20 to 'W 01/03/20 vs. year-ago 12
GEOGRAPHICAL AREAS SHOP TYPES
+32,8%
Hypermarkets
+34,7%
Above 2,500m2 selling surface +55,1%
27/2: First case is Massive sales implication
distribute.
distribute.
confirmed in
Thessaloniki
Large Supermarkets
not not
+33,6%
Do Do
Btw 1,000m2 and 2,500m2 selling surface +37,5%

proprietary.
proprietary.
andand
+34,6% Small Supermarkets

Confidential
Confidential
+31,7%
Btw 400m2 and 1,000m2 selling surface +28,5%
LLC.
% Value change vs YA
, LLC.
Company(US),
TTL GRECE
NielsenCompany
33,8% Superettes
TheNielsen
Btw 100m2 and 400m2 selling surface +19,1%

2020The
Copyright©©2019
+28,7%
Copyright
Source: Nielsen Retail Measurement Services, Total Greece Supermarkets +Superettes week ending W 01/03/20 vs. year-ago 13
GREEKS STARTED REACTING TO COVID-19:
IMPACT ON TOTAL STORE READ
PACKAGED FOOD & BEVERAGE +32,7%
FRESH BULK PRODUCTS +32,6%

Do Do
proprietary.
distribute.
not not
HEATH & BEAUTY +41,4% TOTAL STORE

andand
READ +33,8%
LLC.
, LLC.
Confidential
BAZAAR PRODUCTS +13,2%

NielsenCompany
HOUSEHOLD CARE
TheNielsen
+49,2%
2020The
Copyright©©2019
Copyright
GROWING & DECLINING CATEGORIES IN GREECE
DECLINING CATEGORIES GROWING CATEGORIES

-16% -8% +484% +187%
Wines Brandy RTE Meals Pulses
distribute.
distribute.
-6% -5% +165% +164%

not not
Beers Whiskey Luncheon Meat Rice

Do Do
FOOD
proprietary.
proprietary.
-1% -2% +344% +231%

andand
Cleaning Wipes Liquid/Bar Soaps

Confidential
Diapers Toys
Confidential
LLC.
-2% -1% +149% +112%

, LLC.
Company(US),
Cosmetics Clothing Baby Wipes Household

NielsenCompany
Lip Liners Cleaners

TheNielsen
-5% -3% NON FOOD +99% +98%

2020The
Beauty Stain Removers Elastic Gloves Bleaches

Copyright©©2019
Eye Care
Copyright
ITALY: INITIAL PROGRESSION OF COVID-CONCERN
FROM BEHAVIOR THRESHOLDS 1 – 3
Italy Weekly Sales Growth Trend vs. Year-ago
QUICK TRANSITION FROM

#2 – REACTIVE HEALTH MANAGEMENT TO
#3 – PANTRY PREPARATION
JAN. 7 JAN. 31 FEB. 21 - 23

China reports novel coronavirus First two cases confirmed in Italy Italy reports 1st death.
Government begins to shut down
public events, schools and towns.
#1 – PROACTIVE HEALTH-MINDED BUYING

FEB. 27
17 deaths reported.
Cases increase by 50% over 24
hours reaching 650.
JAN FEB MAR
HAND SANITIZER HAND SOAP CANNED FOOD VITAMINS MULTI-PURPOSE CLEANERS
Source: Nielsen Retail Measurement Services, Total Italy All Outlets Combined, 1 week periods ended Mar 1, 2020 vs. year-ago 16
EGROCERY: SALES UPLIFT ON WEEK
ENDING 23/02
+56,8%
VS. WEEK 8 2019
Source: Nielsen eCommerce tracking, vendite online Week 8 2020 vs. Week 8 2019.
17
Copyright
Copyright©©2019 TheNielsen
2020The LLC.
, LLC.
Company(US),
NielsenCompany Confidential
proprietary.
andand Do Do distribute.
distribute.
not not
COVID-19 NEWS CYCLE

Spain weekly sales growth trend vs. year ago
SPAIN: PURCHASE TURN AROUND TO
18
Copyright
2020The LLC.
, LLC.
Company(US),
proprietary.
distribute.
not not
(24.02 – 1.03.2020)
INCREASE
17%
OF POLES IN W9
TOTAL TURNOVER
POLAND: PRECAUTIONARY PURCHASES
19
Copyright
2020The LLC.
, LLC.
Company(US),
proprietary.
distribute.
not not
20
Copyright
2020The LLC.
, LLC.
Company(US),
proprietary.
distribute.
not not
21
Copyright
2020The LLC.
, LLC.
Company(US),
proprietary.
distribute.
not not
22
ROMANIA: EARLY SIGNS OF COVID-CONCERN FROM BEHAVIOR
THRESHOLDS 1 – 2 ARE VIZIBLE AS OF WEEK ENDING 1ST OF
MARCH
Romania Weekly Sales Growth Trend vs. Year-ago
JAN. 7 JAN. 31 FEB. 26
China reports novel First two cases confirmed in Italy First case confirmed in Romania
coronavirus.
#1 – PROACTIVE HEALTH-
distribute.
MINDED BUYING
Confidential
andand Do Do
not not
JAN FEB MAR

HEALTH
LLC.
, LLC.
Company(US),
HOUSEHOLD
NielsenCompany
Bucharest registered higher peaks BEAUTY
during the first week of local outbreak

TheNielsen
RO KAI
BEVERAGES
2020The
Copyright©©2019
RO GROCERY
BUCHAREST
Copyright
FRESH FOOD
Source: Nielsen Retail Measurement Services, Total KAI Romania, 1 week periods ended Mar. 1, 2020 vs. year-ago 23
SALES BOOM
NETHERLANDS: AS EXPECTED, HAND SANITIZING GEL
24
Copyright
2020The LLC.
, LLC.
Company(US),
proprietary.
distribute.
not not
TO COVID-19 NEWS CYCLE

South Korea weekly sales growth trend vs. year ago
SOUTH KOREA: PURCHASE TURN AROUND
25
MALAYSIA: HAND SANITIZER SALES SOAR
HAND SANITIZER SCANTRACK | VALUE SALES (RM’000) | PAST 2 YEARS - WEEKLY
3 confirmed Covid-19
cases in Malaysia
1200 announced on 25 Jan
1000 957
50ml/gm
Three were confirmed to be infected

by Coronavirus on 25/1/2020
800
640 95% of sales were contributed
600 by a handy pack
SANITIZER
400
260
211
200 104
59
0
Average Average Sales in week Sales in week Sales in week Sales in week
weekly sales weekly sales ending 5 Jan ending 12 ending 19 ending 26
RM4 – RM10
- 2018 - 2019 2020 Jan 2020 Jan 2020 Jan 2020
US$1 to US$2.50
Hand Sanitizer Sales Price per bottle of Hand
Sanitizer @ 50ml/gm
Source: ScanTrack Jan 2020 (Aeon, Aeon Big, Aeon Wellness, Caring, Cold Storage, Giant, Guardian, Mydin, Sunshine, Tesco and Watsons
26
AUSTRALIA: ONLINE SALES OF PANDEMIC
PANTRY STOCKING
% dollar growth vs YA
Source: Nielsen Homescan | Total Grocery Market | Latest 4 weeks to 22.02.2020 vs YA

27
U.S. weekly sales growth trend vs. year ago

USA: PURCHASE TURN AROUND TO COVID-19 NEWS CYCLE
28
WHAT’S NEXT?

Copyright © 2020 The Nielsen Company (US), LLC. Confidential and proprietary. Do not distribute. 29
Getting Ahead of Panicked Purchasing
#4 #5 #6
Quarantined Living Preparation Restricted Living Living a New Normal
PREDICTIONS
Online shopping infrastructure will be put to Supply chain challenges will drive consumers Crisis-buying patterns during the outbreak will
the test. to be less price sensitive on high demand speed adoption of new, permanent behavior
packaged goods or those that guarantee change.
hygiene standards.
Copyright © 2020 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
EARLY INDICATORS
In Italy, consumers grew heavily reliant on online China experienced severely restricted New health and safety labeling may be critical in
shopping and fulfillment (while significantly shopping trips and online fulfillment challenges winning over cautious consumers, based on
reducing in-store visits) to meet their health and at this stage. And, price hikes on in-demand changes made in China, particularly in home
household needs. This will challenge areas where products will occur in some countries, but not delivery products. Older generations are turning to
fulfillment infrastructure cannot keep up with all. We expect these factors will drive online shopping to meet more of their household
demand. increased basket sizes in other markets and in needs.
some cases, influence consumer willingness to
spend more on hygiene needs and healthful
food products.
30
LESSONS FROM THE PAST: RETAIL’S RECOVERY IN 3 ASIAN CRISES: SARS OUTBREAK IN
CHINA, FUKUSHIMA NUCLEAR DISASTER & EARTHQUAKE IN JAPAN, MERS OUTBREAK
IN SOUTH KOREA
31
DEMAND FLUCTUATES AFTER AN EPIDEMIC, BUT TENDS TO
FOLLOW ONE OF THREE PATTERNS
Clothes and
Cosmetics are
among the
products subject to
this sudden release
of pent-up demand
Source: Bain and Company - China’s Retailers and the Coronavirus Outbreak: Lessons from the Past
https://www.bain.com/insights/chinas-retailers-and-the-coronavirus-outbreak-lessons-from-the-past/?_lrsc=70f97d41-56f6-42df-b1ca-43202cefbe7d&utm_source=Elevate_LinkedIn&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=LinkedIn 32
KEY THEMES ON COVID-19 AND IMPLICATIONS
Demand for Health and Demand for Pantry Demand for Non-
Cleaning products will Staples will essential luxury
likely drop. normalize. goods will recover
Watch out for high Watch out for high along with consumer
“pantry” loaded stock “pantry” loaded stock confidence.
levels. levels. Ensure
availability
33
KEY THEMES ON COVID-19 AND IMPLICATIONS
More people stay home Heightened awareness on

Step up online or delivery health and fear of germs
programs to shore up possible /contagion
lost in-store sales and seize on

pantry loading opportunities Brand communications on
prevention (ie., hand
For food categories to ride on the sanitizers, alcohol) and
wave of increased incidence of strengthening of body’s
home cooking, provide materials immunity
(e.g., new recipes) to build usage
and consumption occasions
34
#stayhome#staysafe


Nielsen COVID-19 Impact March16th PDF

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Nielsen COVID-19 Impact March16th PDF

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

COVID-19 OUTBREAK

Nielsen Investigation of Impacts on FMCG trends

Update: March 16, 2020

WHAT’S GOING ON?

COVID-19: WHERE WE STAND

HOW WOULD IT IMPACT?

Real time 14/03/2020 https://infographics.channelnewsasia.com/covid-19/map.html 4

Benchmarks across markets

SPIKES IN THE HOARDING OF EMERGENCY SUPPLIES...”

• Across countries, Nielsen has recorded record-breaking sales of health-safety

COVID-19 cases increase around the world.

50% reduced 94% check news

their frequency 45% stock more at least once a day

of visiting stores food at home

25% increased 25% reduced

their online their OOH 35% reduced

shopping consumption eating out of home

Singapore Vietnam Italy France

+162% -32% +67%

Multi- Chocolate Noodles

+40% +112% +33%

Noodles Beer & Food Hygiene

Pasta & Canned Food

Packaged Ice-cream Hand Soap

+528% -31% Personal

+145% -25% Water Food

Stockpiling supplies E-Commerce Tourism, aviation,

Pharma Hygiene transportation

CONSUMER BEHAVIOR SHIFTS

store visits; growing impacts pricing in some Permanent shifts in

basket sizes. cases. supply chain, the use

COVID-19 EVENT MARKERS

This artwork was created using Nielsen data.

#1 – PROACTIVE HEALTH-MINDED BUYING

JAN FEB MAR

RICE HOUSEHOLD CLEANERS CLEANING WIPES BAR & LIQUID SOAP

Btw 1,000m2 and 2,500m2 selling surface +37,5%

+34,6% Small Supermarkets

Btw 100m2 and 400m2 selling surface +19,1%

FRESH BULK PRODUCTS +32,6%

HEATH & BEAUTY +41,4% TOTAL STORE

BAZAAR PRODUCTS +13,2%

DECLINING CATEGORIES GROWING CATEGORIES

-6% -5% +165% +164%

Beers Whiskey Luncheon Meat Rice

-1% -2% +344% +231%

Cleaning Wipes Liquid/Bar Soaps

-2% -1% +149% +112%

Cosmetics Clothing Baby Wipes Household

Lip Liners Cleaners

-5% -3% NON FOOD +99% +98%

Beauty Stain Removers Elastic Gloves Bleaches

QUICK TRANSITION FROM

JAN. 7 JAN. 31 FEB. 21 - 23

#1 – PROACTIVE HEALTH-MINDED BUYING

JAN FEB MAR

HAND SANITIZER HAND SOAP CANNED FOOD VITAMINS MULTI-PURPOSE CLEANERS

COVID-19 NEWS CYCLE

JAN FEB MAR

Bucharest registered higher peaks BEAUTY

during the first week of local outbreak

TO COVID-19 NEWS CYCLE

HAND SANITIZER SCANTRACK | VALUE SALES (RM’000) | PAST 2 YEARS - WEEKLY