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A1: No. e VFA is an agreement between the two countries in support of the Mutual
Defense Treaty <https://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/phil001.asp> (MDT). e MDT was
established in 1951 between the United States and the Philippines to provide mutual
support in case of foreign attack.
A2: e proximate driver of this change is that President Rodrigo Duterte of the
Philippines is unhappy with the revocation of the U.S. visa
<https://www.rappler.com/nation/249936-bato-dela-rosa-con rms-us-visa-canceled-january-2020> of one
of his key allies, Senator Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa. Senator dela Rosa was formerly Chief of
the Philippine National Police and led a signature anti-drug e ort of President Duterte,
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e broader context is that President Duterte has sought to create greater distance
between the Philippines and the United States—what he calls an “independent foreign
policy <https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/09/09/16/duterte-ph-to-have-independent-foreign-policy>.”
Several elements of that approach include outreach to Russia for closer ties and potential
arms sales and an e ort to develop stronger economic and diplomatic ties with China
even as the Philippines continues to push back (with diminishing force) against China’s
encroachment of its exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea.
A4: e VFA matters for several reasons in addition to ease of access and clear procedures
for the two countries to follow.
First, it provides clear procedures and processes for how to handle issues that arise as a
result of U.S. service members presence in the Philippines. For example, in 2015, a U.S.
Marine was tried and convicted <https://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/02/world/asia/us-marine-
joseph-pemberton-guilty-in-killing-of-transgender-woman-in-philippines.html> of killing a Filipina.
Upon conviction, the service member was sentenced to a 12-year prison term. Because of
the VFA, he is serving that time in a facility jointly established by the Philippines and the
United States <https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2015/12/04/1529186/pemberton-camp-detention-
extension-nbp> rather than a Philippine prison.
ird, it is a political signal of the closeness of the U.S.-Philippines alliance. Analysts and
former o cials believe that signaling close ties between the United States and Philippines
supports e orts to deter China <https://www.rappler.com/nation/251636-vfa-termination-national-
tragedy-albert-del-rosario> from further encroaching on Philippines’ sovereignty.
By withdrawing from the VFA, President Duterte doubles down on his messaging that the
Philippines seeks distance from its relationship with the United States.
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A5: e termination procedure within the VFA establishes a 180-day period from
announcement of intent to withdraw to when that withdrawal becomes o cial. Without a
new agreement, then, U.S. forces currently operating in the Philippines will need to leave
or nd a new legal status. is would include U.S. forces present to provide assistance to
the AFP ght against Islamic State-a liated insurgents in the southern islands. While the
AFP and broader Philippine government e orts are making headway against the
insurgents, U.S. support is amplifying and expediting progress for the Philippines while
slowing or even reversing the spread of the Islamic State into Southeast Asia.
e United States could also seize on the moment to seek to renegotiate a new and better
agreement with the Philippines—one that satis es President Duterte’s objective of
standing strong against the United States, and one that provides President Trump an
opportunity to put his unique stamp on another major agreement, this time a defense
agreement, that could advance U.S. interests for years to come.
John Schaus is a fellow with the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and
International Studies in Washington, D.C.
Critical Questions is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies
(CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues.
Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take speci c policy
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© 2020 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved.
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