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Tugas Moneter CH 4 - Kelompok 9
Tugas Moneter CH 4 - Kelompok 9
CHAPTER 4
Disusun Oleh:
Dewi Lucky Aryanti Sinaga (F1119025)
Dewi Setianingsih (F1119026)
Muhammad Inung K (F1119049)
The concept of present value is based on the reality that the money we pay / receive a day
this is more valuable than the same amount of money that we pay / receive in the future. To
calculate the present value, you can use a formula following:
Yield to Maturity
This concept is one of the most accurate calculations in measuring interest rates.In simple
loans , the simple interest rate is the same as the maturity result.Current bond prices and
interest rates have a negative relationship: when the levelinterest rates go up, bond prices go
down and vice versa.
Interest-Rate Risk
Prices and returns for long-term bonds are more volatile compared to short term bonds.
The risk of an asset return caused by changes in interest rates called interest-rate risk .
1. Less. It would be worth 1/(1 = 0.20) = €0.83 when the interest rate is 20%, rather than
1/(1 = 0.10) = €0.91 when the interest rate is 10%.
2. No, because the present discounted value of these payments is necessarily less than €10
million as long as the interest rate is greater than zero.
2 3
3. €1,000/(1 = 0.10) = €1,210/(1 = 0.10) = €1,331/(1 = 0.10) = €3,000
4. The yield to maturity is less than 10 percent. Only if the interest rate was less than 10
percent would the present value of the payments add up to €4,000, which is more than
the €3,000 present value in the previous problem.
2 20 20
5. €2,000 = €100/(1 = i) = €100/(1 = i) = . . . = €100/(1 = i) = €1,000/(1 = i) .
8. If the interest rate were 12 percent, the present discounted value of the payments on the
government loan are necessarily less than the €1,000 loan amount because they do not
start for two years. Thus the yield to maturity must be lower than 12 percent in order for
the present discounted value of these payments to add up to €1,000.
9. If the one-year bond did not have a coupon payment, its yield to maturity would be
(€1,000 €800)/ €800 €200/€800 = 0.25 = 25%. Because it does have a coupon
payment, its yield to maturity must be greater than 25%. However, because the current
yield is a good approximation of the yield to maturity for a twenty-year bond, we know
that the yield to maturity on this bond is approximately 15%. Therefore, the one-year
bond has a higher yield to maturity.
10. The current yield will be a good approximation to the yield to maturity whenever the
bond price is very close to par or when the maturity of the bond is over ten years.
11. We would rather own the Treasury bill, because it has a higher yield to maturity. As the
example in the text indicates, the discount yield’s understatement of the yield to maturity
for a one-year bill is substantial, exceeding one percentage point. Thus the yield to
maturity on the one-year bill would be greater than 9%, the yield to maturity on the one-
year Treasury bond.
12. We would rather be holding long-term bonds because their price would increase more
than the price of the short-termbonds, giving them a higher return.
13. No because if interest rates rise sharply in the future, long-term bonds may suffer such a
sharp fall in price that their return might be quite low, possibly even negative.
14. Simply compute real interest rates (r = i - π) in both periods:
Before r = 5% - 2% = 3%
After r = 10% - 9% = 1%
People are more likely to buy houses now because the real interest rate they have to pay
has fallen from 3% to 1%. People are paying back more in terms of dollars, but the
values of their houses have risen at such a rate that the real cost of financing their homes
has actually fallen.
People are more likely to buy houses because the real interest rate when purchasing a
house has fallen from 3 percent (=5 percent -2 percent) to 1 percent (=10 percent − 9
percent). The real cost of Fnancing the house is thus lower, even though mortgage rates
have risen. (If the tax deductibility of interest payments is allowed for, then it becomes
even more likely that people will buy houses.)
15. We think the economists was right. They reason that nominal interest rates were below
expected rates of inflation in the late 1970s, making real interest rates negative. The
expected inflation rate, however, fell much faster than nominal interest rates in the mid-
1980s, so nominal interest rates were above the expected inflation rate and real rates
becamepositive.
1. a. Greece is a euro area country which has the highest spread versus bunds. It is +2.98
Latest yield 2.57% and the spread vs T-notes +1.75
b. Switzerland is a euro areal country which has the lowest spread versus bunds. It is
-0.08
Latest yield -0.50% and the spread vs T-notes -1.32
Web Exercise
a) Negara mana saja yang terdaftar saat ini yang memiliki yield obligasi pemerintah 10
tahun tertinggi?
b) Yang memiliki hasil obligasi 10-tahun terendah?
c) Dengan menggunakan 'Kalkulator Spread Obligasi', tentukan spread antara obligasi
pemerintah 10-tahun Italia dan obligasi 10-tahun Jerman.
d) Grafik hasil obligasi pemerintah 10 tahun Jerman
(www.bloomberg.com/quote/GDBR10:IND) selama 12 bulan terakhir. Bagaimana itu
berubah?
e) Sekarang pilih grafik imbal hasil obligasi pemerintah 10-tahun di kawasan euro
lainnya dalam jangka waktu satu tahun. Apakah polanya mirip dengan Jerman?
JAWAB:
a. Hasil obligasi pemerintah 10 tahun tertinggi adalah Negara Brazil sebesar 8.46
%.
b. Hasil obligasi 10 tahun terendah adalah Negara Switzerland sebesar -0.56 %.
Pada negara Jerman, tidak ada penyebaran obligasi jerman selama 10 tahun
3. a. The flat yield on a security is the annual amount receivable in interest, expressed as
a percentage of the clean price (i.e. the price excluding gross accrued interest). Yields
can only be calculated for maturities where gilts exist. Hence for dates in the past
where there was no bond longer than 20 years we do not quote a 20-year yield.
b. zero coupon yield is the rate at which an individual cash flow on some future date
is discounted to determine its present value. By definition it is the yield to maturity of
a zero-coupon bond and can be considered as an average of single period rates to that
maturity. Conventional dated stocks with a significant amount in issue and having
more than three months to maturity, plus General Collateral repo rates (at the short
end) are used to estimate these yields; index-linked stocks, irredeemable stocks,
double dated stocks, stocks with embedded options, variable and floating stocks are
all excluded.
Web Exercise
(Muhammad Inung F1119049)
b. Chart B shows the evolution of two different measures of long-term real interest
rates since January 1999. Ideally, the nominal yield on ten-year government bonds
should be deflated by a measure reflecting expected inflation for the euro area over
the coming ten years. However, no such measure is available on a timely basis. As a
rough approximation, the measure of expected inflation based on the Consensus
Economics inflation forecast was used to deflate euro area nominal ten-year bond
yields. In addition, the chart shows the yield on the ten-year French index-linked
bond, which, although subject to several caveats, offers a more direct measure of the
long-term real interest rate. In March 2001, the two measures stood at around 40 to 60
basis points above the levels seen at the start of Stage Three of EMU in January 1999,
but around 50 to 120 basis points below their peak levels reached in January 2000.
The table below compares the levels of real interest rates in March 2001 with the
average levels over the past two decades. All averages are deflated by annual headline
consumer price inflation. In addition to the euro area, averages for Germany are
included. This is justified by the fact that interest rates in many countries which are
now part of the euro area incorporated premia reflecting exchange rate risk during the
period prior to Monetary Union. By contrast, German interest rates were less affected
by this and may therefore be more comparable with present levels of euro area rates.
The table shows that, in March 2001, the entire range of the three measures of the
short-term real interest rate was below the averages for the 1980s and the 1990s.
5. Obligasi diskon dijual dengan harga rendah dan seluruh pengembaliannya datang dalam
bentuk apresiasi harga. Anda dapat dengan mudah menghitung harga saat ini ikatan
diskon menggunakan kalkulator keuangan di
www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/tools/tools_savingsbondcalc.htm.
Untuk menghitung nilai-nilai obligasi tabungan, baca instruksi pada halaman dan klik
Memulai’. Isi informasi (Anda tidak perlu mengisi bidang Nomor Seri Obligasi) dan klik
pada perhitungan.
Jawab :
Untuk menjawab soal ini, dengan menggunakan Treasury Direct dan memperhatikan
langkah-langkah yang tertera sehinga diperoleh untuk menghitung nilai obligasi
tabungan pada bulan Maret 2020 diperoleh data sebagai berikut: